Weekly Forex Forecast 12-17 July 2020 - Traders Academy Club

Hi traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Traders Academy Club, and this video is the weekly forex forecast and market analysis, uh, for the week of 12th to 17th of July 2020. I hope you are well and safe in these crazy times. And I want to send you my best wishes to you and your beloved ones. Take the precaution steps, stay safe, be well, and I hope we all are heading to better days. If you are watching this channel for the first time, I would like to take the opportunity and to welcome you to our fantastic community. I would like to invite you to subscribe to the channel. Just follow the subscribe button below this video. And please remember to enable the notifications so you know when I upload a new video for you. As well, I would like to invite you to join our trading club, Traders Academy Club, and to join our free Telegram channel. And both links could be found below this video in the description or inside the pinned comment of the comment section. On Monday, we will publish the text version of the forecast. So inside the blog vladimirribakov.com, you will find this direct post. As you can see, this post is summarizing what I discussed in this video and put it in the written version for you. So you can always go to this post and refer to the instruments as they were presented for you. For your comfort, convenience, uh, at any given time. And I hope you find it, uh, helpful. So, uh, let's, uh, begin then. Uh, the— I will quickly review the last, uh, forecast I had on the previous week. I was not able to upload the one, so this is from 2 weeks ago. I would quickly want to see, um, go over the instruments for a follow-up and update and to share with you some new interesting ideas I have in my mind. So the euro dollar, the first one, our view was here bullish, the bullish hidden divergence to form on a daily and to see the push to the upside. Uh, and let's take a look where do we stand with this one. So we completed the hidden divergence and the price pushing to the upside. Uh, it's pushing slow, still pushing but pushing slow. Uh, I have to say that this is a concern, the fact that it is only 2 higher highs, higher lows. That's not a clear trending structure. I still expect that within this consolidation, the push would be to the upside. I would prefer to see the euro dollar pushing to these levels to complete this daily run and cycle and the divergence. So my view personally remains yet bullish here. I would, however, be watching this consolidation, the long ranging price here. If we go below this area, it would be suspicious and might be a warning sign of the bullish direction. However, as for now, when we take a look on real swings Uh, now after the new moves created, we got one high, one low, and only now we got a second high. We never yet formed a new low, so we can't say we have evidences for sells in terms of trending structures, and we can say the buys are in full control as they only managed to create 2 highs and 2 lows in the bullish direction. So the pressure remains from that previous trend, which in that case is to the upside. We got it here, pardon, well, yes, from here, and now sort of consolidation. So the previous trend still has its pressure and no new evidence is in play. If the price goes below the range, it would be a warning sign of the bullish control. Uh, let me know what do you think about the euro dollar. It's— I'm very interested to hear your opinion. As you know, many traders try to focus on the euro dollar only. We are talking about big numbers. It's like 70% of traders prefer the euro dollar as their default instrument. And let me know how do you see this one and what's your thought. The next one on our list was the Aussie. But before I go over that, I would like to take a moment and ask your support in my work. If you find this video useful, helpful to your trading, please show your support back. Hit the like button below this video. If you can, drop some feedback in the comment section. Your support is a big help to the channel, and thank you very much in advance. So the Aussie franc—the idea was that we are in a corrective phase before the. The price would push higher, but the Aussie franc doesn't develop. Basically, it is completely stuck. I do believe this is about to explode to one of the directions, but right now there is no clear sign toward direction. So as for now, for me, if the market doesn't follow my plan, I don't want to follow the market. Very simple. And Aussie CAD. Was the next one on the list. Here we expect to see a next final high to complete the divergence before the bearish evidences take place. So here we are, we are forming this high as we want to see. We are getting very serious zone here around the 0.95 psychological round number with the level from the weekly chart. If we go to the weekly chart, we will see this massive resistance zone, right? And the 200 moving average, which is in a negative slope, putting its pressure. So I do expect the next several weeks for this pair to form this top. When exactly, it's impossible to say. It could happen within a day, but it also could happen within a week or 2 or 3. And it's important to understand that as we are dealing here with bigger time frames. But this divergence is there, and it's strong, and it's building up, and this completing structure. So my personal view is that we have a critical zone here where from with very high probability we will see the price trying to create bearish evidences and push to the downside. If you take a look on the pivot zone. Then also we are entering to a critical area. As you can see, lots of daily resistances on the last several days. The weekly resistance zones are holding there as well, and it starts to be very, very, very serious. And now we are looking for evidences. We need to see false breakout, lower highs, lower lows to start to be created. As you can see on all the rally It's holding the structure of higher highs, higher lows. We did not get any serious reverse here, so it has to happen to get us the evidence that the trend is potentially changing. Another very interesting thing to pay attention to—that's the statistical numbers we have on this pair. These statistical numbers are from the Forex Crystal Ball. And, uh, as you can see here, look at this series of days, and the next one are basically on the end of the month. So the next couple of weeks are critical also, all based on statistical tops. Statistical tops are basically the days where historically tops were created. In that case, tops because I'm looking for a bearish reversal. As for now, as you can see, it's still bullish, and also the, the pressure follows the price, and also the statistical probabilities here. The price yet goes up, but look at the increasing numbers here on the coming days. That's numbers you will— days you will want to pay attention to. Our next one on the list was the sugar, and the sugar, the expectations were to see a push to the upside. So let's take it here on the sugar. We got the move down, we got the push up, but we did not get any new high. It is blocked with the bearish divergence, which could be found now on 3 time frames: 4-hour, daily, and also the weekly is forming a bearish hidden divergence. Now it's hard to see here, but as you can see from this high It is forming a bearish hidden divergence. So that's a warning sign against the bullish view. And as for now, I'm stepping back from the sugar and going neutral. If again, if the market does not develop what I want to see, I don't want to deal with this market. And in that case, this is the instrument of the sugar. Uh, and, um, next one was Bitcoin, and Bitcoin was, uh, very good for us We expected to see deeper ABCD correction on a daily time frame, and that was delivered here. Well, let's— this is the ABCD wanted to see. So the first leg was a clear trending structure, and the second one was blocked with this double bottom and bullish divergence, while the daily also forms here a bullish divergence or bullish and bearish slowdown mainly. What's next with that? Currently to me it's really unclear, so Bitcoin is an instrument I remove from my watch list. Euro pound, another one we were looking to trade, and that was our sell idea, bearish view. 2 levels we marked as critical levels. We wanted to see the divergence complete. And the move down start to happen. Euro pound is one of the best movers so far. We got it holding and we got it going right now. The fact that this rising trend line is broken and the four-hour chart is creating series of lower highs, lower lows, make it from my point of view a very interesting fact. And my view remains bearish. I expect to see the price continue lower. After any pullbacks, the invalidation for me would be 61.8 of the ongoing developing pattern. 61.8 Fibonacci retrace because in trending structures, I'm good with corrective structures, which is two waves or a range. But I don't want to see one straight move through 61.8 Fibonacci. If that happens, this is a warning sign and this is. Is a, a neutral sign for me. Until then, my view remains bearish, and I expect to see the price continuing lower after any retrace. Uh, let me know what is your view on the euro pound. Are you enjoying the ride to the downside? If yes, where from and where are you heading? Next one on the list was the euro CAD, where, uh, well, I Make it short all the way here. We expected to see a bullish continuation after the retraces. Here is the euro CAD, as we can see on a daily, trying to push further, and the four-hour chart made a retrace and pushing to the upside. However, the fact we do not break this high, and the fact we did not break this high. And right now we are facing bearish divergences, slowdown on the histogram, and the daily time frame as well developing a potential divergence is a fact that I dislike. So EUR/CAD was a nice ride, but as for now, I dislike the fact it's slowing down. It might go and break afterwards, but it didn't do it for 2 weeks. This is a sign that it's best to step back At least make some sort of management if you are involved and go risk-free or partial cash out to protect profits. And that's all. Next one, New Zealand CAD. We wanted to reach on the bullish direction to this critical zone and from there look for the possible reversals. And here we are. What we say? Voilà! We enter this zone. The critical zone we wanted to see. And now look at that, the bearish divergence is developing. And I said developing because simply because it's not completed. We need that to complete. As you can see, the daily is developing a divergence, therefore our developing its divergence, and even the 1-hour is developing its own slowdown and divergence here. So that's the signs of a potential reversals. What we will want to see is basically the false breakouts complete and the price creating the bearish trending directions by making lower highs, lower lows. The level is there, the divergences are building up. I believe that the next weeks would be very interesting for New Zealand CAD as well. And if we check the statistics for the New Zealand CAD, you would see here at the end of the month, you see this, uh, ones. So basically one week from now starts to be very, uh, serious pressure on this pair, which makes me think we are about to form a possible top and soon to start and see the reversals. Pay attention to this pair. And for all those of you who got involved in the rally expecting to reach the zone, this is a good place to consider and managing your positions. Next one, gold. This is a very interesting one. We wanted to see the price pushing to the upside through this trend line to complete the divergence before giving a possible reversal signs. And here we are in a very strong level, uh, and, uh, which could turn to be a potential false breakout. So what I want to see from here in order to trigger a possible bearish reversal would be basically false breakouts and mainly convergences. For that, we can drop to the 4-hour chart. As for now, as you can see, no false breakout. So it might go and trigger it here, and then we want to see convergence, or in a clear way to start and see lower highs, lower lows forming. If that happens, then the expectations for the correction to begin. Pay attention that the both month weekly and the daily developing a potential divergence here on the last part. Also on the RSI, and the monthly is getting close to all-time high. Very strong level, uh, and a very possible zone to start and see some pressure. Keep in mind that as long as the reversals did not complete, the pressure is yet bullish. So that can basically— if the setup did not complete the reversal We can still see that pushing a bit higher before the reversal really takes place. So to rush is a mistake here. Many traders, what they try to do, they try to call a top or a bottom before the signs come in. Trust me, from personal experience, I used to do that in the far past. This is a mistake when you try to call a top or a bottom before the market really gives you the signs for that, most of the times you will fail. You might get lucky one time and to enjoy from a good ride, but most of the times you would fail. This is not a recommended trading approach, especially for beginners. Uh, next one in the list was the S&P, where I wanted to see retrace and a bearish Continuation to the downside, but this idea did not deliver. This idea failed. It was right here. Basically, the invalidation plan, as you remember, I talk about that. It was 61.8 Fibonacci, and in that case we got a straight move. I think I have this plan here. Yeah, this is the invalidation plan. I won't. I could not accept the price to go above 61.8 in a straight. Straight movement, one straight leg. And this was exactly what happened. This invalidates my bearish view, and this analysis becomes neutral, and the idea here failed. So what's next? Right now I don't have a clear, uh, view over the indices, so for me they are not really tradable. Apple also did not manage to deliver the sales yet. As the indices also did not manage to create the move down, and that's the quick review of the instruments we were following from two weeks ago. So what's next, and what are the interesting ones to pay attention to by far? Pound Aussie has a very strong divergence here, which could already started, but which could be also a classical. Corrective moment here. We got a double bottom. We got the break above the double bottom. We are building up here some momentum to the upside. With this bearish divergence, I would expect some temporary slowdown and then possible further continuation to the upside. Same is with the pound versus the kiwi. It has a beautiful divergence. So as long as that is the case. I would expect the price to see and to try and to build here— sorry, some corrective movement to the upside. New Zealand CAD I already covered. I find it, well, very interesting from my point of view and definitely one of the— of those I would want to follow. And another interesting instrument from my point of view is pound versus the franc. The way I see that, we are building here a possibility of this sort of movement for another trend to— another wave to start and to build up. And the way I see that, the 4-hour chart builds a beautiful trending structure. We gain some good momentum here, so I would expect to see pullbacks and further buy continuation, bullish continuation. Uh, my analysis would remain bullish if we avoid to see a straight move below 61.8 Fibonacci. As I always know, in trending structures we don't want to see one straight move through all the retraced levels. We are good to see corrective momentum like in 2 waves or a range, but definitely not one straight move. So that's what I have in mind. Also, the silver is in a critical zone. Pay attention to these two levels. We reached the first one. We might go to reach the second one, but this is the place where I expect the divergence to complete on the next several days or coming weeks, and. Very interesting short-term sell opportunity to take place. So that's, uh, what I have in mind for the coming, uh, week. And that's pretty much it. I would like to thank you for your time watching this video. I hope you find this video and the videos I upload for you helpful, educational, interesting. If you do, please Show your support back. Hit the like button. Drop some feedback in the comments. Your help and your support is very important to me and of course to the channel. I would also love to invite you to join our trading club once again and to enjoy from our live market analysis that we do on daily basis. Back up with a full trading report covering all the most interesting trading opportunities. we find for our followers. And that's all. I wish you all the best. Happy weekend. I uploaded this video on Friday evening as I would not be around during the weekend to upload this video, so it gives you more time to prepare your coming, coming week. And that's all. Thanks for your time once again. Stay safe, be well, and I wish you and yours all the best.