Vladimir Ribakov forecasts crude oil heading lower despite recent rallies, identifying two key zones for shorts. For EUR/USD, he maps two scenarios: either a reversal at resistance around 1.10, or a break higher toward 1.11-1.12, depending on Fed rate decisions and US CPI data.
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Hello traders, happy weekend! Welcome to my weekly Forex forecast for the trading week starting on December 12th. Vladimir here from Traders Academy Club, and in this video I would like to share with you 2 very interesting opportunities that, the way I see them, That would be the oil and the euro dollar. But before that, I would like to ask your help and your support. If you appreciate this video and the work we do for you in this channel, please hit the like button, subscribe to the channel, and remember to enable notifications. And thank you very much in advance for your help. The first one I would like to start with would be the oil. So as I shared 2 weeks ago on my weekly forecast, which if you missed this video, make sure you watch it, you can find it on my channel, I wanted to see the, um, oil— this was one of our zones here— I wanted to see a potential bounce. This was one of the areas, and then further continuation down. So the scenario so far follows, which brings me back to my idea that that cycle that is still developing is still ongoing and there is further room. So let's start with the weekly and go, uh, lower. Okay, after a massive rally creating clear structure of higher highs, higher lows, the oil— after all the inflation thing started and the interest rate hike and so on and so on, a lot of manipulation, intervention from the governments around the world to push the prices down and to make it feel like the inflation is not so bad. So oil price goes lower despite the war. You can remember how oil spiked when all the war between Russia and Ukraine started. And despite the ongoing war and the inflation and everything, there are a lot of interventions behind the scenes pushing the oil to the downside. However, I believe it's going down, yes, But it might finish soon. So I believe that this is a developing cycle which should take us back to very reasonably these lows on the way. Okay, these lows, as you can see, are also around this key volume area. This is a KTLI indicator, Key Trading Levels indicator of mine, based on a volume profile. Uh, you can download this indicator and many of the other indicators I have With the links below this video in that description. So as I said, I believe that oil is ongoing cycle, and if I plot Fibonacci expansion on the ongoing waves, here is what we will get. This is the first wave and the correction, and now I plot Fibonacci on the second leg from here down to the movement and the correction here. So the reason I measure the second wave like this is because this is where we got the 3 lower highs, lower lows with 2 waves correction. Pretty classical trending structure. And what makes me think that this is now building the ending waves as well. So here are the 2 very interesting zones I will be paying attention. First of all, this area, okay, the expansion of 61.8 of the last 2 legs. However, the really massive level for a longer run is right here. Look at the expansion of 100 of the last 2 legs and the 161.8 of the first leg. It happens to be right next to the weekly and monthly volumes and right next to the demand area from the lows we saw from the weekly chart right here. Okay, this is the area which makes me think that there is a very strong possibility for oil to continue push down after the pullbacks. So my view remains bearish. And if we go to the lower time frame on the 4-hour chart, you can clearly see— let me just zoom out a bit— you can clearly see here the ongoing trending structure. At the moment, there are no signs to end it, which makes me think there is— there should be At least one final push here. And basically what I want to see is something like that, okay? The push, potential divergence around the 61.8 expansion we saw before, potential short-term correction. And then look what we have. We have ongoing, um, falling resistance line, the trend line, and we have a lot of resistances on the way, which if this rallies will take place, it will be amazing opportunity to look for further potential sells all the way down to the levels mentioned before. Let me know what do you think about the oil. How low can you think this one can go? Share your inputs, share your views. Below this video in the comment section. Also, if you have any questions to ask about anything or any terms I currently I explained in this video, feel free to do that in the comment section below this video. The next one is going to be the euro dollar, which I also find super interesting because after a massive bearish move, which was riding on a lower band of the Bollingers for more than twenty candles riding after crossing the level of parity, the one, the level of one. It reached all the way to the 0.95. Look at the massive bounce since then. It's 1,000 pips upside in a direct move. However, I believe, you know, every party there comes the afterparty, and this week is going to be a very interesting week. We have a lot of news coming this week. We have the CPI in the US and we have the rates decision according to the expectations. The Federal Reserve is expected to hike the rates by 50 basic points right now, but basically to decrease the pace. However, every you know movement to the left or to the right, or every hawkish speech from the Fed could turn the party around. So I see two classical scenarios for this week on the euro dollar. Sorry, let's go back to the weekly. So first of all, we are approaching towards a key resistance area. This was a support. That was broken becomes a resistance, and this is the supply area. I believe this is a key zone where we could easily see the euro dollar reverses down. I don't know if it's enough for a new low to be created after that, but I definitely think this is a key resistance. With the news I mentioned before, there is also always a second scenario, and the second scenario is we managed to break and hold above the area, and instead of a resistance, it will become a support. And then after the pullback, we can see the euro dollar pushing all the way to the next key resistance and volume area, all the way around the 111, 112, maybe even further. So these are the 2 scenarios I see for the euro dollar where My my instinct show me first of all there is a great potential to scenario number one to be the leading one. Look what we have here. This is the resistance I was talking about before. Besides that, there is a moving average bearish divergence developing here. While the market is making higher highs, the indicator is making the lower highs, and RSI starts to build the same. So it's not only the MACD anymore. RSI also joins the. Party. And that's what makes me think if rallies still happen, they are here just to start a corrective movement down to the previous lows at least, and maybe all the way to retest the uptrend line that we have here on the 4-hour chart. So these are the levels and the scenarios I am looking to trade This week, thanks to very likely the news and all the trading expectations that the traders should carry after the news are published. What do you think about the euro dollar? Will we see 1.10 or will we see the level of 1 before? Let me know what do you think in the comment section below this video. And once again, if you didn't download my indicators yet, you can do so easily. To download my indicators, go directly to my blog vladimirribakov.com, then follow the tab of My Strategies and Courses, click on Vladimir's In-House Indicators. This is the marketplace I'm developing together with my team. And here you would be able to find all the indicators you would like. Many of them are also available in free version. Okay, so just scroll down, choose the indicators you want, click to download, install, and enjoy. So that's it for this video. I hope you find it useful, and I would like to take the opportunity and to invite you to join us in our trading family Traders Academy Club and enjoy the best offer we have here for you. Full access to our VIP price action course, real-time trading education, and real-time trading opportunities, and of course our amazing trading community. Join our family with the link below this video in the description. So that's it for now. Thank you very much once again for your time. I wish you and yours all the very best and successful trading months ahead. See you soon with more. Bye for now.
