Weekly Forex Forecast 29 March - 3 April 2020 - By Vladimir Ribakov

Hey guys, how are you? Vladimir Ribakov here from Traders Academy Club. This video is a weekly forex forecast for the week of 29th of March to 3rd of April, 3rd of April. So this is basically the official beginning of a new month and this is the first week From March to April, first week of April. So first of all, before I start talking about the charts, I would like to send you my best wishes and my warmest regards and energies in this hard period to all. I hope you are safe, you are doing what required by the authorities, you take care well of yourself and your beloved ones. And I hope everything would be well, and I hope all these crisis would be behind us as soon as possible. So I want to send some positive thoughts and energies and vibes to all of you out there. It's a world crisis. We all suffer in Canada, U.S., all Asia, Europe under unbelievable crisis. So my prayers are to everyone, and I hope it's all. Over soon. Stay safe. If you are watching this channel for the first time, I would like to welcome you to our community and to invite you to subscribe to the channel. Just follow the subscribe button below this video, as well as to join our free Telegram channel and to join my live trading rooms where I cover all the trading opportunities on daily basis, explaining All the setups, how we follow, how do we validate and invalidate our trading setups. To join, both links you can find below this video in the description, as well as on the pinned comment in the comment section. So welcome to the community, and I hope to see you with us in the live trading rooms as well. So let's, let's talk charts now, and I will go over the previous week. Forecast. Basically, you can find it as always in my blog. It is published on Mondays, VladimirRibakov.com. It's published on Monday evening. My team prepares that for you, for your comfort. And the idea here is very, very simple. We go— you can always refer to the forecast and get a brief idea of what I'm looking for, what would validate it, and what would invalidate it. So I quickly want to go over that right now, show you some examples of the trades we had and the live trading rooms and from our trading reports that we had, and also go over some of the trades I shared with you in my TradingView account. And of course on the blog we share here on daily basis for you, so you can always follow our work. Uh, so let's see, uh, how this week was. Uh, in many instruments it was amazing. Some other were invalidating, like the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD, as well as gold, for example. And I want to explain here, the market allows us a classical view On how to invalidate a setup. So euro dollar, I was looking to go for short after we get the correction. We were looking to trade this correction. One of the setups we were following was right here. This is, by the way, for those of you don't know that, that's the trading report as they come on daily basis from the Traders Academy Club. Uh, and, um, let's take a look on the EUR/USD. We're looking to trade the second corrective, uh, leg here. Okay, and after that, looking to, um, for bearish continuation after retraces. So the plan was to trade the ABCD correction as we got here, triple cycle, and then looking for sells. Now I— this was also the idea on the here and the blog, okay? We're looking for a hidden divergence and then looking for sales. Invalidation would be if we go above 61.8. Now let's take a look on the EUR/USD, and I want to explain here a very important thing, very valuable thing. Now here is the ABCD, we completed it, okay? Here we are since this moment before the new high was created, okay? Imagine there is no new high. That's basically the classic setup because we got the bearish hidden divergence and we got ABCD correction. The continuation to the downside is expected after trendline breakout. So ABCD correction, and if we break below the trendline, we can then talk about sell. Of course, if we also turn the bearish direction into Three lower highs, lower lows on the lower time frame. We are back to the bearish view. But here is what happened: we visited the very important zone here, a clearance area. Okay, and never managed to break below the rising trend line. And instead of breaking the trend line, look what happens: third high comes in play. What does it mean? ABCD never was triggered. The trend line was never broken. Instead of that, we got 3 higher highs, 3 higher lows. What does that mean? That means simply that the bears are not any longer currently— because things might change, you know, market is dynamic, uh, but currently they are not in control. If they are not in control, that means there is no logic to go and look for sells. Instead of that, we are under bullish trending structure. Three higher highs, three higher lows. That brings us back to the long cycle here involved, and in this count with the bullish divergence that we have here and a false breakout that currently come in play, and the fact if we go to the daily, look what happens here. See, we are right next to sixty-one. If we manage to go break that, that's a V-shaped pattern, right? A hold above the MACD was significantly low, RSI completing a divergence, moving averages complete divergence on the MACD. This is potentially a bullish reversal, and that's a potential beginning of a serious uptrend. So the way I see that, uh, we switch to the upside, and as long as we hold the 61.8 from the bottom— okay, so basically we measure this, the movement. This is dynamic because if it continues to go higher, then the 61.8 retrace is going higher. And if we suddenly switch below, like turn it to the downside and go below that, close and hold below 61.8, it of course invalidates the bullish side. But as long as it holds, the idea here is retraces and further buys unless there will be any surprise. Uh, the euro dollar, the way it looks right now, switched bullish. And here is how important it is to be able to understand that, have this kind of read and validate and invalidate your view. Because the beginning of the week, before we got this pattern, my view was looking, as you, as you know, get these corrections and looking for sells. And we got the corrections, we traded it as I just showed you. Uh, where is that? Here. After we spotted the first leg, we were looking for the second leg. Well, yes, it went a bit more than I expected. I was expecting it right here in this zone. It went slightly higher, which is fine. But the most important thing, this ABCD never broken. We never got lower highs, lower lows to return to bearish trend. And instead of that, as we just saw, right, we get 3 higher highs, 3 higher lows. So as traders, you always have 2 choices. One, to start and try to convince the market, but it has to go down. And add more positions or start to increase your lots or average down, add more and more and more, many different variations, or simply validate and invalidate in that case your view, have alternative read, check again from the roots of the higher timeframe and get the proper decisions according to the current market conditions. Always follow facts. It doesn't matter what kind of view you have today. What matters, uh, is— sorry, it doesn't matter what view you had yesterday. What matters is what happens today. Market is dynamic and it doesn't necessarily have to agree with the way you see that. And you cannot expect to follow your lines like I do. I cannot expect to follow my lines as well. So what I have to do is As long as the market follows my ideas and validates my setups, I can trade it. If it doesn't, immediately switch, have a different read, and turn around when required. So that's the euro dollar which I want to show you, and we are switching to the bullish view. So where from? Again, it could have— it could hit any of these highs, and I would definitely expect to see some Slow down afterwards, and as long as we hold above the 61.8, I will be looking for buy retraces. Next one on the list was our euro pound, where I wanted to see two waves or a range before the further buys. So this is pretty much where we stand right now. That's the two waves: one, two. So break above this trend line, and I believe the new uptrend. Is building up. So the— and currently, as you can see, currently we only have 2 lower lows, lower highs. That's why it's ABCD, right? Divergence is due, and that's why break below this trend line should be good. Alternative is 3 higher highs, 3 higher lows to start a bullish trend, and then buy retraces. Okay, that's our plan for the euro pound. Next one we had, we— this is the example with which we traded the previous 2 weeks ago on the sells, first of all. Uh, and then the euro CAD, I also wanted to see ABCD completed. Uh, one of the way we were looking to trade previous week was in a sell after the 3 lower highs, lower lows. Uh, so that's the one we kind of got this week here. That's from the report, right? That's the level. Uh, hit the divergence, false breakout over the clearance zone again, as you can see right here. Okay, that's our plan, and here we are. So we're We got a sell and then we are blocked with the bullish divergence. So basically game over currently. Right now I have to say that my— the, the price movement on the EUR/CAD to me is not clear. Here is where we stand, basically in some— not clear. I don't know how to read that. We do not see series of higher highs, higher lows, and lower highs, lower lows. So I really Don't know how to eat it currently, and it's very possible we are making some sort of a range here before continuation, or some slowdown before one more, one last leg and then continuation. This— so therefore, as for now, your cut for me is neutral, uh, but for the longer term, I would be looking only for the buy. So either the range is breaking upside, and then we are looking to Retraces, buy retraces, or we complete second leg and then, um, making the, the buys. Um, dollar CAD wanted to get retraces to the downside or a range looking for the buys. Here we are completing also the deep correction. ABCD, uh, trendline yet to be broken, but there is only one concern currently. Coming in play, and that's the fact the market making three lower highs, lower lows. That might make deeper ABCD correction, and that's why I would be looking to trade it completely differently. I would be looking until the bigger picture makes it clearer. Once again, as you can see, exactly like with the euro dollar, instead of ABCD. Right, and the breakout for continuation, or higher highs, higher lows. Instead of that, the market gives 3 lower highs, lower lows. So we need to adjust. So the way I see that, this area is where we are heading. That's slightly like 138, 137 zone. I believe we should visit here. This is the cycle area. Okay, in a great combination of a magnet zone, 138 down to 137-ish. From there, I believe we would slow down and start to create some corrections. So I would be looking to trade it on, on the short term only. And as long as 61.8 here holds of this pattern, I would expect it to continue slightly lower. As we just as just showed the 138, 137. So as you can see once again we need to adjust as the market develop. That's the only choice we have as traders. Pound dollar same story was looking to get these retraces towards these critical zones and looking for sells. We got the ABCD correction at that moment. That's why I also had my plan here. Let me show you my plan from the live trading room. Pound dollar here, uh, break below the rising trend line should be good bearish sign. So basically our preparation for the ABCD, okay, bearish hidden divergence in play. But as you can see, the trend line was never broken, and instead of the ABCD We switched for higher highs and higher lows. So the question is, what's next? Going back to the roots, the weekly holds yet this bullish potential bullish divergence on the moving averages. The daily bounces and holding the extreme. So the way it seems. We should face some potential top here on this zone, create retraces, and then we would have to stop and see what's coming next. I am not sure this is the turnaround for the long term yet, and only only time will tell. Until then, pound dollar to me. Goes neutral. It did not complete the ABCD I wanted. Now it's 3 higher highs, higher lows. We might go and trade it from the beginning of the week around this area, but I don't have anything obvious right now. It might be added, uh, well, most likely will be added later on during the week to the live trading room schedule, uh, to the left of your list, sorry. And as for now, it simply goes neutral. There is nothing Clear to trade it. Cadian was removed from the list. Nothing super clear there, and that's all. That's the discussion from the report of the previous week. Now, before I go to the commodities, some things we also traded in our trading room: CAD franc. We traded the second leg. So basically, we spotted here. Higher highs, higher lows. The correction with the bullish divergence. The idea was looking for the buys, second leg. Uh, and let's check where we stand with that. So we completed the second leg here, here. Then the divergence come in play. So the question is, what's next with this pair? According to the higher time frame, we are still bearish. Daily seems beautifully creating a bearish hidden divergence here. So I believe we are going and we start to look for sells, neither from here or after one last push. Uh, I believe the CAD/CHF should start and create another bearish opportunities. So from my point of view, this pair now is back to bearish. We enjoyed it on the short term. Uh, GBP/AUD, we traded the second leg To the downside, three lower highs, lower lows. A B C D. This is the A B C D I always talk about, right? Breakout. So we were looking to trade the second leg. So a lot of moves happened with this pair this week. But here we are. This is where we traded it. The A B C D, and we got this beautiful movement. That's which then blocked with the bullish divergence, which we saw one hour and the four hour. And this is the place where we are out. What's next with this pair? I personally currently don't have a view, so for me it's neutral with some bullish pressure currently in play. So that's the examples of our live trading rooms. Now I do want to, to mention here something. Um, in the live trading rooms, you're exposed to all the trading, the relevant trading ideas we find Based on the markets in that current day. Okay, so we update it on daily basis, and that's starting reports that you receive on daily basis. As you can see, you have here. This is another one, by the way, which we traded the the low, the sell on the Aussie Kiwi. Here we are. Enjoy this move down. But then what happened was the ABC. That's ABCD with double bottom and the breakout. So basically this pair currently is bearish. Sorry, neutral. So it was bearish, now it's neutral. So once again, as you can see, very, very important is just to stay updated. Always follow the facts, what the market gives. Okay, what the market delivers, uh, and stay tuned. As the market, um, changes, we have to change. And that's something that it's critical for traders to understand. Most traders, simply what they do is just start praying, right? If they are convinced it's going for sale, they are holding position until it will start to go sell. That's a big, big, big mistake. Always, always trade facts. Have a read of the market. Market doesn't care of the line that you draw. Market doesn't care of the lines I draw or anyone else. Market cares of what market has as facts, and these facts are, uh, they are dynamic. We have to be able to change. So these trending reports are coming on daily basis for you if you are looking for this kind of guidance. Guidance, uh, with instructions, or what are the instruments to follow, how validating, invalidating, and to enjoy from live real-time education that we have there. And to join our Telegram channels where you would also see a lot of ideas here, a lot of chats and ideas, big discussions all the time. By myself and all the other members, you are welcome to join. And to join our academy is the link below. Basically, it's here, Traders Academy Club. Let me just mark it for you, um, here. Okay, you can find the link also below in the description and in the pinned comment. But please, if you belong to this category of people who are looking for Some magic solutions or some you know fake empty become a millionaire fast things. That's not here. I I don't know to deliver that. What I know is to deliver real trading and to keep it keep the market flow as it is day after day. I don't know to make these empty promises of hundreds of percent every single day or a week. So please, if you belong to the category, category of people who are looking for holy grails, this is not the place for you. I can definitely contribute and help if you are serious about trading and ready for real-time education, then I can help you. Not just me, of course, all the, all our academy. Is there to help you, and you can— you are welcome to join us. Now I want quickly also to go over other opportunities which you want to pay attention to. First of all, in the blog, uh, euro yen short— this is something you can follow up also on daily basis. We upload to Vladimir Rybakov some trading ideas. You can also follow that in our free Telegram channel. As you can see, okay, you can have here day after day all the ideas Published for you. Well, the blogs ideas, so it's easy to know where we upload something and when we upload something. So the euro yen sell that was our idea, and we are inside this rising channel for the sells here. And here we are. Got a beautiful movement during the. During the week, got a breakout, got a massive sell. What's next with this pair? It's yet under bullish structure, so I would not be surprised if these retraces are temporary. Could be in one variation or in two variations to push it higher in one or two legs. So I would not be surprised if now we're back to bullish. Another one we had here in our call is the dollar-yen sell, which also turned to be great right from the, from the massive zone. Let's quickly go over that. So here we are. The question is, what's next? First leg seems completed, so likely to assume we're gonna face some second leg here before the market will decide what's next. And the other ones was pound franc buy also was amazing inside this channel. By the way, you can all of course you can go go to the blog and you can find all these instruments we analyzed for you read and learn from that. But this was what we trading and here we are. So those of you traded it welcome for. Some great market moving period, right? That's amazing opportunities, really. We enjoyed some great, great, great here movements. And also TradingView, as I said, we now gold here is very important thing before I talk about the trading TradingView gold S&P, which we were looking for the buys short term and we enjoyed a great move here. And I'll show you that in a second. But basically here is the gold. I was looking. Show you that gold here. I was looking for ABCD, right? The four-hour chart and sells or range and sells, and we invalidate it if we go to six above sixty one eight. So gold here you go again. The sell idea. We got the ABCD. We never got it breaking to the downside. Exactly like with the euro dollar and the pound dollar. And instead of that, as explained. We go one straight move on daily. You can see it just a bit clearer. Straight move above 61.8, one straight leg that invalidates it. Now we as traders, we always have 2 choices: or try and convince the market that our lines are correct, or switch. And switch is exactly what we did. We follow the facts. So instead of that, the market invalidated 61.8, which means it's under bullish pressure and there is no ending divergence under this rally. So we expected this continuation, and this flag was breaking to the upside, and that's where we published our idea looking for the buys. And these buys came up here and paid us fantastically, as you can see, right? All the way to complete fifth leg. Well, then divergence was in play and Game over. But this move is something we can enjoy from. Why? Because of the ability to always read the facts that the market gives. What's next with the gold? I believe that we will see that slowing down here somewhere, and likely to see slowdown and some bearish fight. How how long will that be? It's. Something that we're going to discuss about in the live trading rooms this week, so stay stay tuned. Should be very interesting one to follow. So just wanted to show you that and the S&P. We were looking to trade the short-term buys after the four-hour chart bullish divergence and two false breakouts came in play. So let's go over the indices. I'll show one, but that specifically would be correct for others. And again. Follow up us in the live trading rooms, and you would know what we are trading in every stage. So here is what we are facing. As you know, my view is bearish, so I expect like two waves correction here. And the first leg was basically the trending structure. It was here. Okay, a bullish divergence and two false breakouts. One false breakout. Second false breakout, and then we got the convergence also created. So the idea was once we spot the trending structures, we are after the buys. This was our buy zone—a bullish hidden divergence that was created once and then second time—and two amazing shots to the upside. So the way I see that, I believe this is the first leg of. Some ABCD correction before we take off for a sell, or we are going to see here some sort of like ranging structure before the next sell takes place. This or other way around on the short term. The way it looks right now, I would not be surprised if this is what we will face. If we do Then this is a classical zone to look for bounce, bullish divergence, and a break above this trend line. If it happens, then we are trading the second leg to the upside, ideally to here, and from there the next further sell. For those of you don't want to trade an aggression, then sell the rallies was and remains my plan. So if we get this rally with the hidden divergence to be completed, I believe sell is our next direction. If the pair suddenly— if the instrument suddenly recreates the lower highs, lower lows for a bearish trend, then simply we switch to bearish view and looking for the sells. So the S&P, which paid us greatly for the buys, also Was again, you can see here the Dow Jones that we trade in the live trading rooms. So again, follow us here. As I said, if you think this format could be helpful to you, then we hold the live trading rooms and we upload these live videos on daily basis. Um, backed up of course with the trading reports. It's very, very detailed trading reports, instruments, time frames. You can see the explanations here on the bottom. So, um, very detailed for, uh, for your comfort. And that's pretty much it. That was our week. As I said, on Monday I will publish the text version, uh, once my team finished to prepare that. I will publish the text version of this, uh, forecast. So just come back to the blog, okay, and you would enjoy all that written down for you so you can go back and refer to the ideas. And for more ideas on daily basis, I invite you to join us in the live trading room. As I said before, you can follow the links below in the— below this video in the description or in the pinned comment. And that's, that's all. I would like to thank you for your time. If you find our work useful and helpful, please hit the like button. Feel free to share with anyone you want. This video is completely free for the community, so spread the word. The purpose of the video is to give ideas for traders to follow up and to enjoy from. As you can see, we We know what we we talk about. The chart speaks for themselves, and that's pretty much it. Thank you very much for your time. Stay safe, stay well, take care, and I see you soon. And for all those of you who are in Traders Academy Club, get ready for another very interesting week and the live trading room schedule. Well, in that case, it's. In this period, it's the live videos that we post will be sent for you on daily basis. So stay tuned and follow up. I'll see you around, guys. Thank you for your time and stay safe. Be well. Yours, Vladimir Rybakov, Traders Academy Club.