Weekly Forex Forecast and Analysis 17-22 November 2019 - by Vladimir Ribakov

Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir Ribakov here from Traders Academy Club. Welcome to the weekly forex forecast for the week of 17th until the 22nd of November 2019. The previous week was turned to be mixed with several amazing opportunities and moves that the market made to pay the expected direction we had and made profits, and some that failed. So what we will be doing right now is reviewing the previous week forecast. This could be found as always in the blog vladimirribakov.com. On Monday, I will publish the text format, the text version for the current forecast. So just come to the blog on Monday and you would see that there, or come back to the video and below the video in the description and in the comment section you will find the direct link to the text format. This is for your convenience, for your comfort, so you can always come back and refer to the analysis And the forecast as we have it. So right now I would like to go over and review what worked, what failed, and prepare the forecast and analysis for the coming week. But before I start, I would like to take the moment and invite all those of you who are new to the channel. First of all, welcome to our community and to the channel. I would like to invite you to subscribe. Just follow the subscribe button below the video, rename it, and enable the ring notification. So you are notified every time we upload new content for you. If you find the work useful, please show your support back. Hit the like button, leave your comment below in the comment section. Feel free to share this video with anyone and anywhere you would like to. This is completely free and open for the community. And I would like to invite you to join my free Telegram channel. The link is found right below the video in the description. And to the live trading rooms. We hold live trading rooms in Traders Academy Club day after day, week after week, followed up with full detailed trading reports sharing all the most interesting trading opportunities as they are. The link is right here on the left bottom corner, tradersacademyclub.com, or below a video in the description. So once again Welcome to the community. And the last thing is I keep the special offer, and as a thank you for your support back in my work in the videos by clicking the like button and by leaving your comment in the comment section, you would gain yourself and earn yourself a full chance to get a free access to Traders Academy Club For a full trading month. Congratulations to the previous week winner. The name could be found in the previous week video. And now let's begin with the review of the previous forecast. The EUR/NZD, our plan: sell the rallies, gaining basically 2 waves from the daily, or holding the range and sell from the top of the range. What we got from the Euro Kiwi was exactly that. We didn't get the range, but we definitely developed the further continuation. The way I see that, the pressure remains on. We could play a bit lower, pushing that slightly lower until it will end up with some sort of divergence, and then back to the trend line and back to this massive supportive zone. We would switch to buys, but we'll discuss about it in a few minutes after I finish the review. Next one was the New Zealand dollar. Our plan: drop down and buys. And this one works pretty good. We got a drop down to the level wanted, and here we are. Going up. So what I would like to see here, and I will explain in two minutes. Australian dollar. We wanted also a drop down, then break above the down trend line. So we reach the zone, as you can see below this most recent low. Let's take a look on the chart. Here we are below this most most recent low. The trend line is not yet broken, and I will explain. The follow-up soon. Next one, euro dollar. Looking for the buys as long as 61.8 Fibonacci retrace holds. Looking for that to dance around, clear the clearance zone here, make the divergence, and start the rally. So far so good. Reach the zone, clearance, rounding. Creating the divergence. The question is what's next would be covered very soon after I finish the review. Pound New Zealandian, I was expecting continuation up after retest. What this pair does is anything but gaining the momentum. We are here, went a bit lower than the retest and up again. Now down again. The bottom line. We are stuck in this range. I still believe we are going higher, but I dislike the lack of momentum gained. The fact that we do not create higher highs, higher lows at that moment, despite the appearance of the higher highs, higher lows here. Then we got one straight move. Currently not clear, removing. Euro Canadian was looking for longs after the break of the trend line. So the break of the trend line happened and nothing really gained since. I will explain how do I see that from here. And Australian franc wanted to sell the rallies with the break of that trend line on the 4-hour chart. This one was one of the best calls we had, break Sell the rallies. You see by yourself where we are. Turned to be one of the best trades of the week. And dollar yen also wanted to see sells with one more false breakout on the 4-hour chart, or, uh, the turnaround with the trendline breakout and the convergence. So we didn't get any new high. What we did have is a turnaround in terms of Lower highs, lower lows, as we wanted to see here. Lower highs, lower lows, and sell the rallies. So we got the lower highs, lower lows, rallies, and boom, we gotta sell. We'll discuss about that what's what next. Pound dollar was looking to go sell the rallies. This one failed. uh, for me with the idea was looking to sell these rallies. Well, this was the only place basically where we got the hidden divergence. We got the move down, but it wasn't as big as I was expecting. Now we do have this trend line, but on the other view, we are now going all the way up to this trend line trying to make a breakout. So I dislike such behavior as for now. Things might get interesting during the week. As for now, it's a no-go for me. And the Aussie-Kiwi, my biggest disappointment personally. I was looking to go long retraces as long as this daily trend line holds, but unfortunately my read here was completely wrong and we broke the trend line and game over. So basically, as I explained previous week, break above this trend line invalidate the setup. And I will explain in a minute how do I see that coming from next for next oil. We expect to see drops and continuation. Not much changed, but we continue in the uptrend for the oil and the gold sell the rallies. We expected to see correction, right? As explained previous week. Four hour we have twenty candles right on the Bollinger Bands, so we see corrections and then we want to go for sell. So here we are in the correction. We'll be expecting for sell. And now let's start with the current week. As you see, and as I said at the beginning, several of the pairs paid amazingly. Others like the Australian Kiwi and the pound dollar. Didn't work out, did not deliver. So it was kind of a mixed week. Part of trading. We never can't have 100% success of them. Our goal as traders is always to remember that first of all, and mainly to aim to be to to do more on the times we are right than we lose on the times we are wrong. That should be our focus as always. And now let's begin. We start with the European pairs. Euro dollar would be the first one. So the weekly is still under bullish pressure with this triple descending cycle and the bullish divergence that is in play. I would expect corrective cycle. Corrective cycle could be 2 waves or a range. First scenario for the euro dollar, basically we are here in play creating the higher highs, higher lows, respecting this supportive area. Creating a bullish hidden divergence, beautiful engulfing, and I would expect it to continue higher. Watching on the 4-hour chart, what I want to see mainly is one more high. That would be creation of higher highs, higher lows, and then it should be enough to open the doors for continuation. Invalidation for all that is the most recent low, because if we break below, that would be completely against the synchronization of the cycle and the divergences, and then we would have to reanalyze. Until then, pressure is yet bullish, and I expected further continuation. What should we pay attention to? Remember the fact that this Builds up here some suspicious structure of lower highs, lower lows. So if that turns to be some kind of two waves and then breaking below it, it would be a very suspicious sign. As long as didn't happen, of course, we continue with the view. Next one, Euro Kiwi. So the way I mentioned before, I expect some little. Continuation down until we create some sort of divergence here, or at least when this was our range, right? This is our bottom. Come closer here, and from this place start looking for the for the buys. Until then, we are good potentially to see another push until this also turns a divergence, and then the and then the buys. Okay, and I would like to remind you that you can get a completely free full month's access to Traders Academy Club, to our live trading rooms, and to our live trading reports. All you have to do, like the video, leave your comment and your feedback in the comment section below. Let me think— let me know what you think about the video, about my work. Or about any of the pairs, anything you would like. And by Tuesday, I will choose the winner from all the comments. Okay, so next one on my list is the Euro-Canadian. As mentioned before, we break the trend line. So first of all, what and why am I bullish here? According to the triple descending cycle from the weekly with the bullish divergence, I expect corrective cycle. Uh, daily fits in pretty nicely with the creation of the higher highs, higher lows here. Currently 2 of them within corrective structure yet. Last divergence in play is bullish, uh, and the lack of divergence here make me have a bullish view. 4-hour chart break above the falling trend line and finally Gain here, higher highs, higher lows. So from my point of view, this is buyer retraces plan. Invalidation is easily going here to above this rally rising trend line. If we suddenly go below that, game over to the plan. So my view for the euro CAD is bullish. One of the best ways to ride such trends would be the SRS. Uh, where, as you can see, when all the monitor candles would be lined up and the SRS candles would turn bullish, and as long as the bullish structure of higher highs, higher lows goes, we are after the buys expecting that to continue higher. Next one on the list, we are now into the pounds. So the pound, uh, I have 2 new interesting opportunities here. First of all, pound versus the Canadian, which I find very interesting possible special cycle with this as a massive clearance zone next to 171-172 zone. Bearish divergence is developing on the, on the daily chart, as you can see. Pretty clearly. 4-hour chart slowing down massively, creating here some sort of, uh, pattern. I can also see how seriously slowing down here with the wedge. So basically from this zone marked before, as the closer we get there to the 261.8, I will be looking for reversals. The best way would be to get the false breakouts and lower lows, and then sell the rallies. Or alternatively, lower highs, lower lows, three lower highs, lower lows for a trend change, and then sell the rallies. So pound CAD is the first very interesting opportunity I find on the list. Checking the— just let's put it in the middle so it doesn't drop. Checking the Forex Crystal Ball statistics, we can see that we are heading towards a massive zone, 19, 22, 24, 25. This week, the coming week, uh, and, uh, the, the week after is a massive, massive, massive week for tops. As you can see, very powerful days. That makes me think that this area is critical and we should face retraces. So pound CAD, definitely interesting. Pound franc, also very interesting opportunity the way I see that. From one side, bearish hidden divergence on the weekly. From the other side, lack of confirmation from the daily. We don't have ending divergence here nowhere. So the way I see that, and because the way it's structured here, we should try and spike one more time here for potential clearance on one of these scenarios and possible return to this bank area. So I believe we're gonna see one more spike before and when it completes the divergence and start the sales. The way to Work with that is to draw this falling trend line and this resistance area. We want to see that breaking through, not just breaking through, but creating here also the bullish momentum for the higher highs. And the 1-hour chart would have to be a bullish structure, which it currently develops without any, any significant problems. So once we will ideally complete the breakout This has to be three higher highs, three higher lows, and then we can simply go and look to buy retraces. So this is my view for the pound franc until it will make this move and complete the bearish divergence four hour and the daily. Next ones, Australian pair Aussie dollar. My personal view remains looking for the buys. The idea here is very simple: lower, higher highs, higher lows, retrace, looking for trend continuation upside, expecting corrective cycle of the weekly to come in play. Now here is one concern: the level of 61.8. So far we are holding, but if we continue lower from here. Crossing through 61.8, game over. This would be a step back, as simple as that. So what I want to see is one of the scenarios: come back to this area, create a bullish divergence, break above the trend line, and then would expect continuation up. Alternatively, 3 higher highs, 3 higher lows with the break above the trend line, falling trend line, and then buyer retraces. That's one of the 2 scenarios I follow, one of the 2 scenarios I'll follow for the Aussie dollar. And as I mentioned before, if we continue lower, going below 61.8 from here, game over. Would be removed from the list without looking for the opportunities. Next one of the Australians, Australian versus the Kiwi. As explained before, previous week turned to be a failure. So what do we have right now? Uh, bearish divergence coming from the weekly, bearish divergence completed on the daily, triple cycle came in play, well, in different shape. So basically we are now into the corrective cycle. From my point of view, sell the rallies. No divergence against on the 4-hour— no, they were on the daily, sorry. No divergence against on the 4-hour, and that makes me think sell the rallies. Uh, so Aussie Kiwi, my view is bearish right now, at least in the short term. Uh, sell the rallies. New Zealandians, New Zealand dollar turns to be amazing as planned. Buy retraces. So I believe there is more to, to come. First leg of the corrective cycle came in play here. It was 3 higher highs, 3 higher lows. Now we got correction, bullish hidden divergence. So I believe this is developing the next leg. Would it be big or small? We would know that only later on. As for now, uh, that should continue. Now we might see that developing this leg We might see that simply stuck inside this range, but bullish view remains on. The ideal scenario would be if we create another high. That will be a bullish structure. Three higher highs, three higher lows will be a very, very good confirmation. And the way it looks again, I expect according to the weekly triple cycle. I expect corrective cycle, so that's why my view still remains bullish as long as the daily doesn't change its structure. For example, bearish divergence and lower lows. Until then, it's bullish. We can say that as long as the trend holds, of course. The break below that would. Potentially invalidate the bullish view. And the New Zealand and Canadian, same story. Triple cycle from the weekly bullish massive divergence on the moving averages. Daily chart finally creates the higher highs, higher lows. So I believe buy dips Was the correct plan here and remains the correct plan here. Invalidation, rising trend line. Dollar franc, new addition to the list. The way I see that we are building up some bullish structure, bullish pattern: three higher highs, three higher lows, ranging. Correction. So I think we should see one more low, this to become a bullish divergence, and from this on look for the buys. So ideally the 4-hour chart will follow— created divergence on the 4-hour, divergence on the daily, break above the trend line Looking for the buys. Dollar franc, I find very interesting. Checking the statistical part, we can figure out we are heading here as well to critical days. As you can see, all the end of the months, very, very powerful period. So if we get it done, would be very good potential buy according To the Forex Crystal Ball statistics. And this is view. This is all basically from the Forex. Now commodities, gold. As explained before, I expect further continuation down. We got the correction. I would want to see the second leg develop, breaking, pushing lower. So my view is bearish sell the rallies. I expect further continuation down. And a new one on the list, not yet triggered, not yet in play, but potential. And this is nope, not S&P, Nasdaq. Here we go, which develops twenty candles rise on the Bollinger. Massive, massive, massive tops connection here. As you can see, bearish divergence, classical slowdown, um, and mainly the potential divergence from the weekly, from the monthly, and the fact that the 4-hour chart looks like a lot of false breaks. So what I want to see here is The rising trend line, I want to see that go down, create lower lows, sell the rallies. Would be the plan. The alternative, three lower highs, three lower lows, sell the rallies. And that's the way I see that on the Nasdaq. Now, I know many of you are looking into the indices as well. Let me know, how do you see the indices? What do you think about the new highs? And how do you think that continue from here? Leave your comment below and earn yourself the chance to get free access for a full month to Traders Academy Club. Meanwhile, I would like to thank you very much. For your time watching this video, I hope you find it useful, educational, helpful. This video is completely free for the community, and my goal here was as always help give you fair ideas to enjoy from the way I see them. Of course, I cannot be 100% of the time right. No one can. Of course. I, uh, do mistakes. Of course, sometimes I have my, uh, wrong reads. And I'm here not to brag how well I read. I'm here to help you choose the right directions and enjoy from them during the week. And this is why I invite you to join the Live Trading Rooms, where day after day we follow up all the most amazing setups. You have, uh, um, an offer to get free access to Traders Academy Club For one full year with the brokers program, all the details for that are below the video in the description. So thank you very much once again for watching this video. I wish you a fantastic trading week, and I'll see you during the week with new content, new video, new trading ideas. Yours, Vladimir Bokov, Traders Academy Club.