Vladimir Ribakov analyzes EUR/NZD and Bitcoin for the week of February 20-25, 2022. EUR/NZD shows a bullish moving-average divergence with support on the 4-hour chart, suggesting buying dips. Bitcoin has completed a bullish cycle and entered correction, with a bearish MACD divergence, and Ribakov sees geopolitical concerns delaying the next major rally.
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Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Traders Academy Club and welcome to my weekly forex forecast and market analysis. We are in the week of 20th to 25th of February 2022. I hope you are well, safe, and healthy, and I hope, uh, on behalf of everyone that all the situation with Russia and Ukraine would not, uh, really go to wrong places. So today I have 2 very interesting ideas I would like to share with you. That would be on EUR/NZD and Bitcoin. But before I do that, if you are new to this channel, welcome to our fantastic community. Please subscribe to the channel with the subscribe button below the video, and also I invite you to join our trading family, Traders Academy Club, where you would enjoy all the real-time trading ideas and real-time trading education. To join us, please follow the link below the video in the description or in the pinned comment inside the comment section. Also, if you enjoyed this video and the other videos I do for you in this channel, please hit this like button below the video, drop some feedback in the comment section, feel free to share the video with anyone who you believe can benefit by watching it. And now, thank you very much for your help, of course, um, and I really appreciate it. Your help is very much important to this channel. And now let's go to the charts. So the first one would be the EUR/NZD, where I find very interesting opportunity. I would like to break it into 2, um, separate pieces. The first one, the longer-term analysis As you can see, we are at the end of 3 reducing momentum legs and ended with a bullish divergence on the moving averages. Lower lows on the chart, higher lows on the MACD, a sign for a possible reversal. First leg that creates the higher highs on the chart and the higher highs on the indicator to complete the convergence. For me, it's a sign that after pullback, what I expect, another leg upside. Taking it to the lower time frame, and we can see that we already have two higher highs, higher lows in play, which opens the door for one of the possible scenarios. Scenario number one, we're gonna stop here and create to complete the third high. So number number two, we're gonna complete zigzag two waves up, two waves down before the market would decide. when it's time to hit the rally again. And this is exactly what, as for now, I expect. I expect this area of the lows and the next important lows surrounded by the higher time frame volumes to become a supportive area. At this place, I believe that's where we would have a hidden divergence. So higher lows on the chart and lower lows on the indicator to indicate that the correction is coming possibly to the end. And on 4-hour chart, as you can see, we have— this is the area of the low, of the lows, and that's the area of the volumes. As you can see, I use this volume profile of mine, and the beautiful area here gives classical buy opportunity. So I believe that this current move down is about to end here. I do think we should see the divergence building up here. Okay, the indicator has to create divergence, so lower lows on the chart but shifting to higher lows, indicating that the sellers are running out of steam and their lows are weakening. And from there, I believe we are after a rally. How big this rally would be, time will judge, but I don't think it will be too big, I think we would go then and retest the highs of— here, let me just throw it, free pen— the highs of the uptrend. So we go down here and then we retest the next swing, the previous swing highs. This is my view on the EUR/NZD. Buy these dips here once the divergence takes place and look for this reversal sign uh, to anticipate the corrective leg upside. Let me know what do you think and how do you see, uh, the EUR/NZD by yourself. And the next one is the Bitcoin. How can we be without the Bitcoin nowadays, right? So what do we have on Bitcoin? Why do I find it so interesting? I again want to separate this into 2: the short— the long term and the short term. So Back then, right at this very top, we called the top. And if you missed this video, you can find it on this very channel. I explained why I expect to see a move down. You can also find this video right now on the right top corner of this video, direct link to watch. The question— and I received like, I don't know, 20 or maybe even more questions on the last couple of weeks— Vlad, what's next? So the way I see the Bitcoin, we are in the corrective cycle. We did have here completed bullish cycle with a bearish divergence on the moving average of the MACD, which means that we are likely in a corrective phase. Corrective phase is ABCD or a range, and that's one of the scenarios I expect. So sell the rallies is still pretty much the right thing to do from my point of view. The question is, can we try to buy the rally? And here is why. Expect further move down, why would we buy the rally? The way I see that, we completed 3 waves here with a bullish divergence. I think, but because we also shifted here to the higher highs, there is a very good chance that this is just still a corrective phase of the first leg down. And that's how I want to possibly find these opportunities. So we are testing the broken low And we have a low also here. I believe that this would become a supportive area, and if so, we should be able to find from here possible buy opportunities to enjoy this rally, ideally back to the— this key rejection zone. Will that happen or not? Time will tell. But how I want to find my opportunities inside it, so Taking a look on these two waves, I want to see these waves coming to the end with a bullish divergence as well, and then by breaking above the falling resistance. So gain the momentum, build the higher highs, higher lows, and complete pullback. Look for the buys. In other words, if this is what we have, right? I would want to see here the higher highs, higher lows building up. Of course, lower time frame is fine just to make sure the breakout really gains the momentum. And why do I want to see the higher highs, higher lows? Very simple. This is indication that the buyers might really step in. And then with the pullback of a retest, second leg is definitely becoming an option. And the other option is that we simply go below the lows by gaining 3 lower highs, lower lows, and then sell the rally becomes relevant because very likely we are continuing lower to complete this bearish cycle. This is how I see the Bitcoin. Now, this is super interesting. instrument at the moment. And the question I receive frequently since this drop happened, Vlad, do you think now it's time to see all-time highs? Personally, I don't. There are way too many things happening currently in the world that could prevent Bitcoin by itself, but also the whole crypto market to really gain the next, uh, bullish run. I believe that in order to be able to enjoy from the next something like this, uh, long rallies, we should first of all stabilize, go to normal. Because let's admit it, on the last few years it was ongoing party, and every party later or sooner comes to the end. So we should stabilize, find some, uh, logical, normal, um, I would say common ground, uh, that for everyone, and then prepare the basis for the next massive rallies. Uh, so this is how I see the Bitcoin. Let me know what's your view on this amazing instrument. And do you think we are about to make a massive rally or it's not time yet? Share with me what do you think and what's your view on Bitcoin below in the comment section. And thank you very much for your time watching this video. I wish you a wonderful trading week ahead. Join us in Traders Academy Club to enjoy all the other trading opportunities, uh, we share in real time during the week, uh, coming together with a real-time trading education delivered to you in videos, dedicated videos. Uh, and, uh, that's it for this video. Thanks for your time once again. I'm Vladimir from Tergeros Academy Club. I'll see you soon with more. Bye for now.
