Weekly Forex Forecast | EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GOLD (XAUUSD) & Bitcoin Analysis (September 1–5, 2025)

Hey guys, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club and welcome to our weekly Forex forecast. After a short break in August, we are back with the weekly forecasts and all the trading opportunities for the coming week. This week and actually the beginning of this month, September, look very promising, very exciting, so let's begin. Before the chart, as always, big thanks and thumbs up to 8K Broker for supporting our community. And to continue and enjoy all our fantastic offers we have with 8K Broker, please refer to the link below this video in the description. EUR/USD is our first instrument. What is happening with the EUR/USD? Basically nothing in August, which absolutely makes sense. It goes flat on the last 2-3 weeks after some zigzagging before, after 2 waves to the downside. And it— the way it behaves right now, it is a simple preparation for the next wave to develop. So what and when will that happen? On September, we have the Federal Reserve Rate decision, and according to the market, and actually the Federal Reserve prepared the ground himself on the last Friday in Jackson Hole, and the market anticipates a cut, and moreover, the market anticipates a hint for further cuts in 2025 and 2026. The pressure on the Federal Reserve is huge. Will the Fed actually follow the pattern? Will the Fed lose his attitude to the pressure from Trump's administration. Time will tell. Let's take a look how it looks like technically speaking on the weekly chart. Here we are on the weekly chart. We have very interesting scenario right now. So first of all, the euro is in between The broken support became resistance and the last high that acts as supply. But the interesting part here is we are riding for more than 20 candles on the upper Bollinger Band without retracing to the opposite band. Usually it's a hint that some bearish pressure is building up before the trigger to the downside, but this scenario that happens right now As it reminds what happened in 2020. Look at the behavior of the Bollinger Band. Look how it rounds here. Pretty similar. And after bouncing off the mid-Bollinger Band, which similarly happened here, we got final run until a bearish divergence was completed on the weekly chart. And then we got a trend change. And that is a very possible scenario here as well. Final run, bearish divergence, and then long-term trend change, which definitely looks like a possible scenario. For that to happen, let's go to the daily chart and explain what I expect to see. This is the recent ABCD pattern, 2 waves to the downside with a trend line. If it managed to break above that zone and to hold above this area, then I believe retraces should push the euro to the upside to 1.19120, maybe even to the range of 1.22123. Okay, so this is to trigger to the upside, but there is another possible scenario here on the EUR/USD, and that is that we will see a deeper correction. Like a trap because think about it, how many buyers will actually attempt to buy the EUR/USD? And that could trigger a range here before the rally takes place or even deeper ABCD to retest the fantastic volume profile-based area in between the 114 to 113 and from there make the rally. If I have to give percentage on both scenarios. The bullish scenario for me has about 60-70% and the rest goes to the bearish one. What's your view? Let me know in the comments. GBP/USD is our second pair and it's not different from what we saw on the EUR/USD. For the long run, I am very bullish on the GBP/USD and I believe that this bullish structure is not over and after the correction Either it stopped already or not, we should see the pound-dollar continue its bullish run, and there is a great probability it will happen already. On a daily chart, the pound-dollar does mini-range similar to what happens with the euro-dollar, and it is holding its volume profile-based zone. Unlike the euro-dollar, The pound-dollar is bouncing off a strong supply area, which means it's either gaining some stoppage before the next drop to the downside, or it will— this supply area will be broken. We will see the pound climbing above this volume profile zone here, retest that, and making the final run To above 140. So for the bullish scenario, that's exactly what I want to see happening. Get it making higher highs, higher lows on the chart, something like that. Higher highs on the indicators would be ideal synchronization, and then buy the dips would be the classical plan. However, if this supply zone holds, keep in mind there is a chance that this is all a trap. And if the Federal Reserve— remember, the market anticipates a cut. If the Federal Reserve in the coming 2 weeks, a bit more, will not actually— would say, okay, we cut, but say we are not going to rush with further cuts, the market could be very, very, very dollar favor, and that could cause the pound-dollar to make a drop. And for that to happen, on the 4-hour chart, we have some critical structure at the moment. As it is building up this range. If it doesn't manage to break to the upside and then alternatively break the downside, holding below this volume profile zone, then sell the rallies here could be a great one, uh, which will fit to a corrective— expected corrective structure we have on the, um, we can expect on the USD/USD after, uh, on the daily chart, sorry. After 3 bullish waves We could expect some deeper ABCD here before longer-term buys once again. So it is on a critical junction, uh, price-wise, and on the next 2-3 weeks, I believe the GBP/USD is going to set up a decision. The way I wanted to explain here is the preparation for both scenarios, either the bullish or the bearish. The next one is gold, which finally managed to break this range which it was holding for the last 4 months. What's next? So the way it looks right now, the gold is set to make the final rally. And the reason I believe this is a final rally is not really new. We've been talking about it on the previous weekly forecast. It is the overbought conditions with the— which the gold carries on, on the monthly chart. The overriding on the upper Bollinger Band for more than 20 candles puts its pressure, and I believe that this run is going to end soon on the next several months before a major drop will take place. And yes, I'm aware of all the voices calling for the gold climbing directly to $5,000. Excuse me for being skeptical here. I don't see that happen. I might be wrong. I think we are ahead of some peak, and this peak with the monthly overbought condition, with the weekly chart making more than 20 candles right without any significant retrace to the lower band, and the coming building up bearish divergence on the weekly chart. I believe the next few weeks are critical, and from there gold is set to drop. And on the short term, yeah, the, the way it breaks at the moment, this range could definitely hint that on a short term, as long as these 2 lows hold, buy the dips, Could be the correct plan. We might see the gold surpassing the thirty-five thousand, thirty thirty-five hundred to achieve all-time high. What do you think about the gold? Let us know in the comments. And the final one for this week: Bitcoin. Usually I don't talk about the cryptos too much unless the opportunity is really interesting. What is happening with the Bitcoin and is the bullish run over? So let's answer this question. Bitcoin is actually very under very strong bearish pressure right now and it is actually very interesting. One of our top trades we had there recently was the sell on Bitcoin while spotting this trigger zone. We saw that Bitcoin— this is a trade from Home Trader Club which I'm talking about here. We spotted this classical retracement, the trigger zone just to make the move. We made the initial management around the 23.6 Fibonacci, and right now we are next to that target level that we had here around the 105. The biggest question: what is coming next on Bitcoin? So first of all, why the drop. Simple. Too many people got excited with Trump's administration, too many people buy, too many influencers and anyone trying to push that and pump that, saying that we are going directly to $250,000, maybe even half a million. And of course, the more money comes in, the easier it is for the bigger players to take their money, create some panic, make people cash out with a loss, and then skyrocket again. Bearish pressure on the weekly chart at the end of the 3 waves brings with it— with it— and a bounce of $120,000, round number, right, brings the bearish pressure. So I believe that on the short term, that bearish pressure is still on and that Bitcoin is Under a corrective structure. Long story short, on a daily chart, we've got the classical false breakout, fake high, bearish divergence on the moving average of the MACD, and now lower lows on the chart. While that happens, we also see three waves to the downside. Usually, that's a classical bearish structure, which means simply sell the rallies. And that's how I see the Bitcoin. Short-term pullbacks are more than possible, of course, but I believe this is not over on the bearish side. And after some pullbacks, I believe the Bitcoin should go and retest this low and this low, which, uh, we can see around below $105,000 and maybe even below the $100,000. So for me, sell the rallies on Bitcoin is the plan, and I would be more than happy to hear what do you see on this one. Let me know in the comments. And that would be it for this video and this, uh, week. I hope you find value in the trading opportunities, and please don't forget to hit the like button if you do. And if you are new to our channel, please consider to subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. Thanks for watching, good trading to you, Good months, and if you have kids, I wish them a fantastic academical year as kids are back to school this week. All the best to you and yours. Thanks for watching, and I'll see you soon with more. Good trading. Bye for now.