In this weekly forecast video, Vladimir Ribakov of Home Trader Club reviews three key trading instruments – the EUR/USD, GBP/USD and WTI crude oil – and outlines detailed dual‑scenario trading plans for each, based on upcoming U.S. CPI data (forecast 3.6% vs 3.2% prior). He analyses weekly, daily and 4‑hour charts, highlighting support and resistance zones, supply/demand areas, moving‑average and volume‑profile levels, and uses technical tools such as Bollinger Bands, MACD, RSI and Fibonacci extensions. For each pair he explains how a worse‑than‑expected CPI (supporting further Fed rate hikes) would justify selling rallies at broken support zones, while a better‑than‑expected CPI could trigger short‑term reversals and buying opportunities at fake lows. The oil segment focuses on a psychological 90‑USD level, an ABCD pattern, hidden bearish divergence, and repeated seller rejections at a key Bollinger‑Band‑derived zone, suggesting both short‑term buying on pullbacks and larger‑scale selling if divergence completes. Throughout, Ribakov invites viewers to comment, like, subscribe, and join the Home Trader Club for deeper education and real‑time trading support.
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Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to the weekly forex forecast. In today's video, we have three very interesting opportunities I would like to share with you. That would be the euro dollar, the pound dollar, and oil. We've been discussing about these instruments on the last several weeks in the previous, uh, weekly forecasts. If you missed, you can always find them in my channel. So I want to do a follow-up and to build a full trading plan for the coming instruments. So ready, let's begin. So the first instrument would be the euro dollar. As you remember a few weeks ago on the weekly forex forecast I shared on my channel, and if you missed that, make sure you Watch it, very important. Our trading plan was to get these pullbacks here and go for a sell towards these key levels. We were talking about the 4-hour chart making these 2 waves, and from there the anticipation were to see 3 waves down. As you can see, the market delivers. The question is, is that over? Now technically, and what I want to show you here It's a very interesting situation happening at the moment in the market. How according to weekly and a daily chart, it does not look like it's over, and we might actually go and see the euro dollar pushing further to the next important lows to be retested here or maybe even lower. Okay, but on the four hour, we we will see in a moment how everything hints that could there could be a A real turnaround, and the reason for that is basically coming from the fundamental. Take a look what is about to come this week: the CPI data from the U.S. Okay, that will happen on Wednesday. According to the forecast, we are talking about 3.6% versus 3.2% on the last time, connected to what the Fed said recently. That the data is getting worse or not improving as they wanted to see, and that could cause more rate hikes. If this data comes really, uh, as negative, you know, to the economy as it looks, then it's very, very possible that we will see the euro-dollar continue pushing lower and the pound-dollar, which we'll see in a minute, And maybe even others. But if the numbers really surprise and will show that the economy is really doing well and they will stay at 3.2 or somewhere around that, we might see the euro making that reversal sign, at least on the short term. And this is how— take a look on the daily. At the moment, daily chart, besides having these supportive levels and demand levels, does not offer much. What does it offer? Nothing. Right? There are no reversal signs, no trendline breakouts, no flips from lower lows to higher highs, nothing at the moment. Right? So that's why, according to the daily, any pullbacks here should be considered as a sell. Now let's go to the 4-hour chart and I will want to show you the trading plan I have here for both buy and sell. After the news, so if the numbers really turn to be as bad as the forecast shows, three six or even worse, then sell the rallies that could happen prior the the news release would be a smart thing to do. And levels to pay attention to in that case would be this broken support that acts as the supply area at the moment and the previous. uh, support acts as a resistance and supply area as well. Okay, this zone would be classical for further sell if the numbers really show or support the Federal Reserve, uh, view that the economy is not doing well and more hikes would be required. However, if the numbers surprise to the good, the daily chart already has its levels. Look at that, we might go and complete here clean 3 waves, uh, and this go and complete some, you know, reversal signs by making fake lows to bounce off the daily chart, making then higher highs, right? And then pullbacks and rallies, at least in the short term. So as you can see, daily shows no reversal signs, 4-hour shows potential reversal signs around the key level. That's a classical move by the market, like to prepare a potential reversal from key levels, right? And now let's see what would be the buyer's response from the levels, if at all, or seller rallies will remain the plan. As I want to explain here, 2 clean Trading plans. One for buys with fake lows and reversal signs. 2, if the numbers show the economy is not doing well, sell the rallies. Should still be that. Let me know, what do you think about the euro dollar and where are we going from here? Share with us in the comment section. Before we continue to the next instrument, which will be the pound dollar, I would like to take the opportunity and thank you for your time. Watching this video. If you find value in this video, please hit this like button. And if you are new to this channel, please consider to subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. And just remember to enable notification button so you know when I upload for you another video, another content. Okay, uh, so let's continue. And thank you for your support. Of course, the next pair would be the pound dollar. So pound dollar is our next instrument. We also discussed about this pair On the last several weeks, on the weekly forecast. If you missed that, please make sure you watch it on the YouTube channel so you understand the full analysis and why I was in a bearish direction, at least on the short term. Before we go and talk about the levels and what do we have here and what the pound is expected to do, let's take a look weekly on the numbers, pure numbers directly from the market strength snapshot. Take a look what the pound dollar is doing. This is, by the way, our members area in Home Trader Club, and that's one of the things, one of the powerful things in my point of view. You get inside. Look what happens here. One month is close to negative three percent change. One week close to two percent. Last twenty four hours we're not doing much, but the numbers are negative. Judging these numbers on the pound dollar. There is a very easy way to believe that this is not really over. So we were talking about this instrument and the plan was to look for the sells towards this key zone. As we can see, the pound dollar is right there right now and there is a great chance it will start doing some reversal signs. Or will that? Remember what I said before on the euro dollar and the CPI. Let me just increase the chart. Okay, so this is our pound dollar. Once again, what we wanted to see here is sell towards this zone, and this zone is right there. So connected to the CPI I explained before with the euro dollar, bad numbers that bad, I mean to the economy, and the pound dollar could push way beyond this level. there is a great chance we will go all the way to the full extension of these 2 waves, and that could be around the 161.8, which will connect, believe it or not, to the previous broken lows of the downtrend and these 2 lows. This zone is a major demand zone, and there is a great probability if the economy really will show its negative signs further that we will go all the way there. However, on a short term, exactly like with the Euro dollar. This is the Monday broken resistance, now acts as a support, sitting right on the 200 moving average and daily and weekly volume profile based zone, as you can see here, right? And take a look, what do we see on the 4-hour chart? Believe it or not, classical potential reversal signs exactly Like with the euro dollar. So this was the first wave down, right? Then we got the correction ABCD, and now we are restructuring that. So the classical move here would be something like that, and then a bounce, right? Again, if the numbers will support it, at least on the short term, because this bounce could be temporary before further continuation, okay? But this zone which we just saw from the daily, which connects To the 200 moving average, the weekly and the daily volume profile-based zone. And look what else do we have here, right? The pair is riding and making 20 candles ride and more on the lower Bollinger Band, one of my favorite conditions for reversal signs, right? And this is based on the Bollinger indicator of mine. Look what happened last time here. It happened. We got a strong bounce. Last time it happened here, we got a strong bounce. Will that happen once again here? Well, we have the news coming, the CPI, which will definitely help or, uh, you know, destroy these potential reversal signs. And here is what I want to see: bad numbers to the economy and sell the rallies becomes the plan, exactly like with the euro-dollar. Every rally towards the broken supports that now could act as the resistances, and maximum towards this supply zone through the volume zone here, right? Supply, supply, volume. Okay, any retrace towards this zone is very likely to bring further sell-off on the pound-dollar. However, if numbers surprise to the good, we might see here these reversal signs. So fake lows start to create a bullish divergence build up on the MACD, higher, um, higher lows on the MACD, potentially RSI as well, versus lower lows on the chart right from the key zone mentioned before. And we could start to see the rally back to the supply areas, and that could be a significant, uh, short-term retrace here. We are talking here about potentially 200-300 points. Right? So exactly like with the euro dollar, we have key levels. Now it's time to see how the numbers will bring it on the market, right? And sell the rallies with bad numbers is the plan from the key levels just showed. And surprising to the good side numbers, and we should be looking for these reversal signs, fake lows, right? And then Buy shorter buys towards these key mentioned levels. So that's my plan on the pound dollar. That's how I plan to trade it, but both buy or sell, whatever the market reacts to after the news. Let me know what do you think about this one. Share your view in the comment section. And the final instrument would be the oil. So oil was also covered a few weeks ago on the weekly forecast. You can again watch this one on the YouTube channel. And see the full analysis why my plan was to get this pullback here and the buy towards these key levels. So take a look what happens indeed with oil after completing these 2 waves correction and a bullish hidden divergence here, right? This ABCD was broken and oil responds with the rally. Now, why specifically I wanted to see these levels come in a retest? There are a couple of reasons for that. First one, we are talking about psychological level. This is slightly above 90. It's a very psychological strong zone. Okay, besides that, judging with the weekly chart, we did have 3 lower highs, lower lows, and this could be a classical ABCD condition. And this ABCD condition might go and bring us to the place where we got Negative or bearish hidden divergence. If that happens, that could be a hint of a sell-off. Okay, that's why I love this area. Besides that, we have a lot of sellers here. Why? So on the rally, right, we got crazy powerful rally since March 2020. We all remember what happened with the pandemic crash and unbelievable recovery since. But afterwards we got wave down, rally, another wave down, and a retest. On this retest, take a look how many sellers were rejecting this zone. Okay, then we managed to go down finally, and again retest here. Again sellers. Take a look how many sellers. Weeks in a row, every time buyers try to push, sellers reject and push back down. That's a very strong zone. We can't deny that. That's why I believe if we get inside there with this condition, we could expect the oil to react. That's why I love this area. Going to the daily chart, and here is one of my favorite technical signs, a cycle sign. Three completed waves potentially here with a condition of a bearish or negative divergence. When the market is making higher highs, but the MACD moving average starts to build lower highs. So what I want here is the reaction from this place. So there we can go and look for the sells. Take a look what happens on the 4-hour chart. But before that, another reason why I love this zone is if I plot— okay, take a look— Bollinger Band duplication from the last breakout. Again, this is my Bollinger Band. A tool I love, absolutely love to use to find ranges based on Bollinger Bands numbers for potential support resistances and trade from them. And this level fits exactly— this is the first application, that's the second application— exactly on the level of supply I mentioned before. Absolutely classical. Now if we take that and we go to the 4-hour chart, on the 4-hour chart we start to see this reversal sign. We did have the 20 candles right on the upper Bollinger Band, right? And it might be not instant like in that case. Hey, this was a place as well, and it continues slightly higher before strong response, another push, and another response. So we might go and actually go and play here around, right, before it goes and completes something like that for a sell-off. And that's exactly my trading plan. I want to see some pullback happens here We have the supportive zone here. We have the supportive zone here. That could be short-term buy zone unless there will be some surprises, right? And then with this divergence to complete and the daily divergence to complete, from there I am after major sales. So on a short term, this could be potential buy. We have this key zone. We have the rising supportive line. To pay attention to, right? Uh, that could be classical short-term buy opportunity towards this key supply zone mentioned before. And from there, looking for the bearish divergence to complete— higher highs on the chart, lower highs on the indicator— and to go and look for the sell opportunities, which I believe from there could lead to a move in between 500 to 1,000 points, maybe even more. So that's my view on oil. What is your view? How high will that get or rally before the reverse happens? Let us know in the comment section below this video. So that would be it for this weekly forecast. As I said before, I hope you find value in this video, and thank you very much, of course, in advance for your time. Watching it. Uh, please hit the like button if you enjoyed that. Feel free to share it with anyone who you believe can benefit watching this video. And I would like to take the opportunity to invite you to our family, trading family, the Home Trader Club, where you get your access to our full trading courses for beginners and advanced, real-time trading education, real-time trading opportunities with detailed videos, access to the community, to myself, my team and all the other members, and so much more. Join us with the link below this video in that description, and I hope to see you with us. Best to you and yours. Thanks for your time once again. I'll see you soon. Good trading, and bye for now.
