Weekly Forex Forecast | GBPUSD,AUDNZD,USDCHF | 19th to 23rd June 2023 | By Vladimir Ribakov

Hello traders, happy weekend. Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to my weekly forex forecast for the trading week starting of June 19th. I have several very interesting opportunities that I found for this week, and the market was kind of on steroids after the Federal Reserve holding the rates. And thanks to the numbers that present, at least as for now, that in 2024 they do expect a reverse trend and the rates to start and go backwards. Will that happen or not with the inflation still putting the pressure and consumers unable to spend as before? Uh, we will see, time will tell. But as for now, the numbers are indeed very impressive, and the Federal Reserve, with the way he presented things, uh, caused the market rally and rally big time. And so it affected on every, um, market so far. So there are several opportunities I would like to share with you, and also I would like to quickly review the ones we discussed in the previous week, uh, because couple of them basically invalidated and I want to explain them. Ready? So, uh, let's begin. But before that, I would like to thank Mugen Markets for supporting me, my channel, and my community. And to learn more about the partnership I have with them and how could you enjoy from that and benefit from that, follow the link and it is in the description. Below this video. So the first one I want to quickly follow up from the previous week was the pound yen. According to the pound yen, I was looking here for possible reversal signs to build up— fake highs, break of trend lines, and sell opportunity— which clearly, as we can see, doesn't happen. But what I want to address here is the importance of price behavior. A lot of traders rely purely on a level or on indicators, and even though in times it could be classical— let me just go bigger screen here for you so it's easier to see. Okay, so again, I was looking here for the turnaround signs and sell after the breakout. But again, it was far from happening. And even though level could be extremely important, as is purely attack on a level, on— in many times, in many other times when the market gains some momentum thanks to the news or unexpected, uh, things happening, uh, the levels by themselves or indicator by themselves Would not have much significant impact, and that's what happened with the pound yen and also the CAD yen. Both had the potential create the reversal; never did. If the reversal doesn't come, it means in simple words the trend is still here; it still exists. So for the long run on the pound yen, my view here that there is a great chance the market will eventually go and. Try to head back to this, uh, supply area around this key zone we have, maybe even higher than that. But at the moment, uh, this is pretty much where, uh, it's very likely heading. So it still has room, uh, and therefore, because the levels we were looking at the previous week did not hold, any pullback here back to some significant levels, and we have a significant inner zone here before the last explosion. And so we do here. And of course the rising supportive line— all that are important levels. Any pullback, if happens, should be a good opportunity to start looking for bullish evidences for further continuation upside towards the key supply area from the higher time frame. And the same story exactly with the CAD yen. I was looking here, it started to look so good at the beginning of the week, right, where we got here some fake high, bearish divergence was building up, and it is a classical opportunity to start looking for reversal signs like I presented in the previous week. I want to see the break of the trend line and the market making some lower lows, right, the trend to flip. Before actually going and looking for the cells. As we can see, it clearly did not happen, which means the trend is way stronger yet than the short-term reversal signs we started to see. And exactly like with the pound yen, CAD yen also looks at the moment sort of unstoppable. And The classical scenario for the CAD yen would be if we could go and complete a triple cycle here on the monthly time. So yeah, on the monthly time frame, and we have—I'll show it here. Look at these spikes and these spikes. Okay, that's the massive seller zone. So that's what it would be ideal if for the long run it could go and complete. And the way it behaves right now without any stoppages on the gold, take a look how big this potential is. Let's zoom out slightly. You can see the levels are way higher, right? So we do have the rising supportive line. We do have the inner zone here as support resistance. It was broken and become a support. Any pullback towards this levels to exactly act as with the pound yen we saw before, could now use as important support to join the trend. And again, I want to address here the importance of the combination price with levels and indicators. Level by themselves, levels by themselves would not mean a guaranteed trade to build up. Indicator by itself is nothing more than indication, and it's crucial to understand that the price must be there, must be there. Okay, uh, and I want you to remember, I had a beautiful discussion, um, recently— I don't remember when exactly— with someone, and he said 30% chance that there will be rain, it's still a chance that there will be rain. And it's very important to remember that. And personal story, uh, also happened to me recently. I was going to play tennis with a friend with 15% chance that there will be rain. We took the, we took the risk. We drive all the way to the tennis court just to find out that yes, there will be rains. We still managed to play 20-30 minutes. Unfortunately, it was not more than that. So remember that. Uh, and, um, yeah, the next one on the follow-up was the NASDAQ. And on NASDAQ, so far it follows the plan. What we wanted to see is the final push towards the key zone here, right? And then reversal signs to build up. So we got this final push. And I love the way it builds up. It's still riding on the upper Bollinger Band, which I absolutely love. But I also maybe mainly love the fact that the 4-hour chart starts to make that crossover, as you can see here. That's a very positive sign. And what I want now is that again, the trend change signs. Okay, so the ideal scenario Would be if oops sorry. The ideal scenario would be if we can go and start getting some fake highs. My mouse is not responding well. Okay, like fake highs and then some trend line breakouts signs exactly like I explained before with the CAD yen and the pound yen. The other possible scenarios here for reversals would be. Price-based, okay? Which means, for example, we start to see, um, 2 lower highs, lower lows with attempt to pull back into waves and breakout, okay? Or significant resistances that now become support, broken, then retested, and providing a good hold and bearish evidences. So the NASDAQ is on a key zone and And now it is time to look for the bearish evidences of trend change. And remember, the fact that the level is there does not guarantee that there will be a trade. And the final one from previous week was the pound franc. On this one, not really much happened, to be honest, but the plan was and remains the same. The break of this range Any pullback and further continuation. The plan is absolutely the same at the moment. Any pullback, if happens from here on, still stands for a buy opportunity based on the higher time frame. So this one was unchanged, and I really don't have much to say besides that the bullish momentum is yet continuing. And now let's go to the current week opportunities that I found. The first one I want to present would be the pound dollar. So watching on the pound dollar, I was waiting a couple of weeks ago only, so it's not too far. I was waiting to see for bearish opportunities to get another leg down before continuation. It never happened to deliver, and instead of that, the market is breaking the high. Significantly. And so far, again, thanks to the Fed and its momentum, it looks— it's on steroids. And it's very possible that we are going to finally retest the key, the next important key zone. So we have a broken support that acts as a resistance. We do have here a volume zone, so there is a good chance we will enter this area. And in terms of important supply zones, so we have starting from these high and the spike and this high, it creates for us a major zone which very possibly eventually would be retested before any changes. But another fact that really, uh, catches my eye here is that this most recent falling resistance line now is broken clearly. The market creates and continuously goes with the higher highs, higher lows, and so does the RSI. The relative strength is synchronized with the price. And if we plot Fibonacci expansion on the ongoing momentum here on the waves, we will learn that the 61.8 is indeed next to the same levels we discussed before. Which brings me to the bullish idea in in mind, exactly like with the pound yen maybe or the CAD yen. So what I would like to see here is any pullback. We have first zone here, a little consolidation before the last rally, then the broken resistance that now becomes as support, and of course the ongoing supportive. Lines we would need to pay attention to. So pullback with bullish evidences from each of these zones is where I will be looking for the opportunities to join the buys and to ride with the currently strong momentum the pound-dollar has. The next pair I would like to share with you would be the Aussie-Kiwi, but before that, I would like to ask your support. If you find this video valuable, helpful, uh, please hit this like button. A few words in the comment section would be a great help. Feel free to share this video with anyone who you believe can benefit watching that. And I continue with the special, um, I would say special thanks I have for you guys as appreciation for your help and your engagement, um, in my work. Leave your feedback in the comment section, hit the like button, and one of you will get the access to Home Trader Club for one full month absolutely free. Congratulations to the winner of the past two weeks, and thanks for your engagement, your help, and your support. It's very much appreciated, of course. And now Aussie Kiwi. What do we have on this pair? The longer term. Might be slightly confusing at the moment, at least according to my read. However, there are a couple of levels we want to pay attention to on the short term. This is the first one, pretty strong resistance area that holds the supply zones of the move down before. So that's— these 2 levels are very significant. And if we analyze the highs of the uptrend we had before We will learn that they are in the same zone. Maybe even the last one is slightly higher. So the Aussie Kiwi has very, very strong levels here that very possibly will create short-term sell opportunities. For me, that means any rally to inside these zones with bearish evidences like bearish divergences bearish candle pattern, rising trend lines breakout, lower low, lower highs— all the factors that show how the trend changes, uh, should provide great opportunity for a sell back to the supportive zone here, maybe even slightly lower to the massive volume area we have in this zone. So going to Before I'm going to the 4-hour chart, take a look how it looks like on the Bollingers with the breakout. But from this candle where we got the momentum through, even one before, we are right now on the very strong first Bollinger Band duplication. But even from the candle that managed to close here, we can see that the next duplication is exactly next to the next supply. And that's what makes me exactly think that one of these areas will be the critical one when this one has, of course, more weight and value. Every rally towards these zones or close to these zones with bearish evidences is where I will be looking for short-term sell opportunities to happen. Okay, and going down to the 4-hour chart, we will see that it already starts to build up bearish divergences, which means the current, uh, um, buyers are slowly losing the momentum. And again, ideally we should see here some attempt to make this rally close to the next levels before the turnaround. What you should— we should follow from there is of course the rising Supportive line to be broken and the turnaround of the price from higher highs, higher lows to flip the lower highs, lower lows. It will give a great understanding that the sellers are likely stepping in. Okay, so this is for the Aussie Kiwi. The next one would be the dollar franc, and I will state and say here this one is a bit more aggressive. Than the other ones from my point of view, and the attempt here is to join the current ongoing trend it has. The reason it's more aggressive is because there are some important supports here on the go, and it's not too far from there. So the bounce might be longer before continuation. However, with the current ongoing price everywhere and the losing momentum so far that dollar has. If we plot Fibonacci expansion here on both legs, we will learn that this could be an absolutely classically ending descending cycle. And as you can see, the level of this cycle is slightly lower, and I want to see one more low here with the divergence, of course, everywhere to go and complete. And that's exactly my plan on the dollar front, to go and to join The momentum. Let's go back to the weekly chart. Just want to explain. Look at the candle patterns here. Take a look what happens after this bounce upside, okay, which holds the most recent two bearish massive candles and the volume zone around the 0.90, 0.91 from the weekly chart. We got two massive bearish candles the last two weeks and three weeks in a row. Of 3 lower highs, lower lows. That's pretty strong sign by itself. So going down all the way to 4-hour chart to trying to find the verification for the bearish view here, what I see is that the market is making the lower highs, lower lows, uh, and stands for the bearish trending structure. There are no reversal signs or anything at the moment that for me means Any pullback to the broken support that now acts as a resistance, or all the way to the previous volume zone next to this supply area from the 4-hour chart around the 0.90 or 0.9050, could be classical opportunities to look and to join the ongoing momentum. So for me, again, it's more aggressive, but it has a good room. And as long as we will hold above these key rejection area here, my bearish view is on, at least on the short term, expecting it to reach all the way down to the weekly classical Fibonacci expansion levels of 61.8% of both of the most recent weekly legs. This should be an amazing opportunity And again, more aggressive— what does it mean in terms of risk-taking? For me, more aggressive trades, I will participate in them only if they have very good risk-reward for me, and I will go with smaller risk than I usually do. Thanks to the risk-reward, they could pay more as a regular profit but with a smaller risk. This is how I personally deal with my aggressive Setups. So that's it for this video. Thank you very much once again for your time and for watching it. I hope you find value in the trading opportunities. As always, if you do, don't forget like button, few words in the comment section would be a great support. And again, thanks of course for your time and for your engagement. 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