Vladimir Ribakov analyzes Nasdaq, USD/JPY, and EUR/USD for the week of April 10-14, 2023, using support and resistance levels, MACD divergences, and Fibonacci targets. He maps two scenarios for each pair and lays out his longer-term bias: bearish on Nasdaq, down for USD/JPY, and bullish but capped on EUR/USD.
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Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club and welcome to the weekly Forex forecast. In this video, we'll preparing to the trading week starting of 10th to 14th of April 2023. I will be sharing with you 3 very interesting opportunities I find and Basically, we'll explain all the reasons why I find them so interesting, and it also would be in the short term and the potential preparation for a long-term trade. And that would be the Nasdaq, the dollar yen, and euro dollar. But before that, I would like to take the opportunity and to wish you and yours a very happy Passover, Easter. Ramadan Mubarak, whatever you guys celebrate. I wish all the very best to you and yours. So let's begin. The first instrument in our list would be the Nasdaq. Starting from the higher time frame on the weekly chart, what we can see here that at the end of the beautiful first three waves down. The market is making now a corrective structure. This corrective structure is approaching towards a very strong zone supply area: the previous swing high or the recent swing high in the bearish move, and the previous swing highs of the uptrend. And so all that becomes a massive rejection area and supply area. From this zone, I do believe we will start to see some pressure and the sellers to try and take the control. But until this area is reached, I believe we should see the NASDAQ completing this final push. Take a look where this area is. It's right here together with the previous swing highs from the weekly chart. This is the zone where I anticipate the buyers will try to push towards, maybe even slightly beyond, before the next bearish move will build up. The preparation for the next bearish move down already started. As you can see, while the market is attempting to make the higher highs, the MACD moving average starts to slow down. That's a sign of a negative divergence or bearish divergence. And usually a hint that such rallies are coming to the end. So until that happens, what is going on at the moment on the 4-hour chart? The market still maintains its higher highs, higher lows. On the most recent leg up, we can see here a bullish hidden divergence taking place. So I think that the Nasdaq, as I said before, has room to complete a final rally towards the weekly highs. What could happen here is the market will try to make a straight move. That's scenario one. Scenario two could be that we will see some sort of ABCD pullback back to this supportive zone. And from there, the buyers will take the push all the way to the previous swing high. So for me, NASDAQ on a short term remains under bullish idea, under bullish momentum. And for the longer term, I'm going back to the weekly chart. I believe that as soon as we are here on the supply area and the rejection zone, the NASDAQ will build up the momentum, complete the divergence on daily chart, and we'll start to push that down to the bearish direction once again. So that's about the NASDAQ. Let me know what do you think about it. If you have any questions, don't hesitate to ask in the comment section below this video. Next one would be the dollar yen, which I find very interesting, and I expect to see Eventually and finally, the final move down taking place and building here like two waves correction with some convincing bullish divergence. The way I see that on a daily chart, and let's close the current levels. By the way, all these indicators that you see on my screen, including my virtual pen. The volume profile based and all the rest, you can get that directly with the links below this video in the description. So what do we have right now on the dollar yen? At the end of the first 3 waves to the downside, the market reacts with a beautiful correction. This looks like first wave of the correction, which opens up 2 scenarios here which I will be following. Scenario number 1, and the ideal one is that we build up some range here and bounce all the way down to complete the another drop and a final move down. If that happens, I believe we should plot Fibonacci expansion. Oops, Fibonacci expansion. And around the 61.8 Fibonacci should be our Target for this drop. The other scenario here is if the pair managed to complete ABCD correction, meaning since we got the three lower highs, lower lows, it's a bearish trending structure. We might see the market making ABCD correction. That means one more rally until we complete higher highs on the chart, lower highs on the indicator, and from there. We'll be looking for a sell to reach the same level. Okay, uh, of course we can't predict what of the scenarios would be followed by the market, but as long as we hold this range, I will be looking for this sort of price behavior. Okay, so any rally here above the previous high and closer to the High of this potential triangle could provide opportunities to start and look for the sell. As I said before, on the longer term, I believe dollar yen has all the reasons to go and complete second corrective wave at the end of this massive rally we experienced before. So that's about dollar yen, and now let's move to the final one. That would be the euro dollar. But once again, if you have any comments. Your— share your views or any questions about the dollar-yen, feel free to ask in the comment section below this video. Euro-dollar would be our next one. And here is the euro-dollar, a pair that so many traders love to trade, and with an amazing reaction we had here since October 2022. The euro-dollar, which everybody was in a rush to very, uh, recovered dramatically from the 0.95 zone all the way to 1.10. The question is, what is next? So I definitely expect the buyers to continue on the short term. However, I do believe their force should be limited. I think that this rally will eventually come to the end. We have some Major barriers here on the way. As you can see, zone of consolidation, zone of consolidation, a lot of fights between the buyers and the sellers around these areas. And I believe that the closer the euro dollar gets there, the stronger the next bearish pressure would be like. However, on the shorter, I do, I do believe that we should see at the end of some pullbacks final push upside before the longer-term scenario will set up. And that's exactly what I'm— I'll be looking to deal with this week. The euro-dollar completed here some interesting rally in a format of 2 waves, and that makes me think that we are now in some sort of a corrective structure that could be again ABCD back to the important support zones. As you can see, the first supportive area, second supportive area, and from there look to buy. Or alternatively, some sort of a range like I showed before with the dollar yen. Uh, in, uh, usually if that happens, it happens in some sort of a triangle or horizontal ranges. And then break above this range to gain the rally. I do expect the euro dollar eventually, and potentially I would also say, to go and to clean the 61.8 expansion of the weekly level. And that also will bring us to— if we plot here the swing highs, you would see that will take us right next to the weekly Supply zone we were talking before. So I believe there is a room towards 113, 114, maybe, maybe even as deep as 115. But I think the fun would be over there. So for me, buy the dips on the euro dollar is the plan. I expect that as long as we are holding this. Beautiful lows of support and the previously broken resistances that are now behaving as support. We also have a dynamic 200 moving average here, and if you can see here, let me just try to plot it for you here. Okay, the rising supportive line. And so any pullback closer to these areas should be legit opportunity For further bullish continuation. So I am definitely bullish on the short term for euro dollar, and buy the dips becomes the plan. What do you think about the euro dollar? Let me know in the comment section. And if you have any questions about this one, don't hesitate to ask below. So that's it for this video. Thank you very much for watching and for your time. I would like to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club, where you will get your access as soon as you join to our full trading courses for beginners and for advanced, real-time trading education and real-time trading opportunities, and of course access to myself, my team, and our amazing community. So join us with the link below this video in the description. Once again, thank you, and once again, thank you very much for your time. Happy Passover, Easter, Ramadan Mubarak, whatever you guys are celebrating, best to you and yours. I'll see you soon with more. Bye for now and good trading week.
