Weekly Forex Forecast - USDJPY,EURUSD,EURCHF,GBPAUD - 14 to 18 August 2023 - By Vladimir Ribakov

Hey guys, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club and welcome to the weekly forex forecast. In today's video, I would like to share with you four absolutely fantastic trading opportunities the way I see them, and I would like to explain why. So that would be the euro dollar, euro franc, dollar yen. Yep, yep, the same dollar yen. Which was one of the, I would say, most sold pairs on the last, I don't know how many weeks. A lot of retail traders are selling that already, push the button more and more and more and more and more, and the dollar-yen is just going up. So I want to explain where I believe we will actually see buyers losing their grip a little bit. Sellers are trying to push and reject and resist. and what and how I anticipate to happen. And the next one would be the pound Aussie. So let's not waste time anymore. Let's begin. So I would actually go and start with that dollar yen. So look, so many traders. And how do I know that? Of course, from the sentiment and the retail reports that show where the sellers are in the sell. And the sellers are in the sell pretty much from here. And here and here and here and here and here, increasing more and more and more their positions, selling in the hope that it will go down. So first of all, it could go down, and yes, it could deliver. However, with the technical thing and technical analysis, there are some doubts that it is ready to deliver. I will explain the levels we should pay attention to. Uh, and why, of course, and what I believe will happen for the long term. So let's start with the shorter, and then I'll explain the long term. On a short-term daily cycle, as we can see here, is very likely to go and complete these triple cycles, 3 completed waves, okay, inside this sort of a bullish channel. Now the reason I love that so Much is if we plot Fibonacci expansion on these legs, you will find out a golden ratio: 61.8 expansion of the second leg and 161.8 expansion of the first leg right at this zone. Hey, this area is there not just, you know, for no reason. Take a look how the previous downtrend was developing. Move down. Okay, some sort of a range and boom, major sell power. So all this zone happened to be what? The area where sellers were pushing the money, preparing the major move, and at some point it indeed happened. So this is a massive supply area, okay? And if we take a look on the previous swing high analysis, we can see that this swing high Was created at that moment, okay? Starts to be right in that area. So that is our key zone. I believe that the dollar yen, as soon as it enters here, it will also enter the top of this channel I mentioned before and start to create some slowdown conditions here. Very possibly, we will see lower highs on the MACD here, forming a bearish divergence or negative divergence. And the dollar yen start preparing the sell from this zone. So the way I want to trade this one, and here is the important part, is I want to see some reversal signs. At the moment, if we go to the lower time frame, okay, let me just zoom out a little bit here on the 4-hour chart. What do we have? The same sequence, higher highs, higher lows. So what I want to see, I want to see the divergence coming in play, of course. Take a look on the RSI. Higher highs, higher lows, no ending conditions. So the ideal scenario here is going to be one of the following. So ideal is this: some sort of push, pullback, push again, fake high, pullback, another rally, okay, another fake high, and the reversal to take place. This would be the absolutely ideal scenario. However, what could happen here is with the most recent momentum coming to the zone, the market sometimes fails to make the absolutely classical reversal with the false breakout and does create some waning. So if it starts to push in a few waves down, rejects with a couple of waves up, and breaks it down, this is an absolutely fantastic sell. Meanwhile, can we still look to buy the dips towards the area? The answer is absolutely yes, and that's the key zone we have. Resistance that becomes a super, uh, a support and a buyer zone, okay, demand area. And same here, resistance that become a support and demand area. These 2 areas are key areas for possible buys if The market really bounces there. But here is a very important thing: does that absolutely automatically mean that if a level reached, you have a buy or a sell? Well, the answer would be no, and I hope you don't do that because so many traders do. And why? How can you buy or sell without an evidence? Really? I mean, I understand attacking a level and just hope for good. But hope for good usually can work what, like 1 or 2 or 3 times, and then boom, the market will revenge. So trade smarter, okay? Don't guess, don't double guess. Let the market create the setup for you and then go execute your trade. Look for bearish evidences, candle patterns, at least rejection, flip from, uh, swing highs to swing lows, okay? Instead of higher highs, higher lows, look for lower highs, lower lows. Something that actually tells you that sellers are stepping in. For those of you who are working with an order flow, for example, you can actually see increased, uh, number of sellers coming in play. Okay, so very important, don't just, you know, attack the levels. Trade smart. And if you will trade smart and respect the setup, the market, you will get the opportunity to Find classical, or I would say increased probability risk reward trades, and make the numbers work for you. That's the only way to actually take the edge on your favor. Take the advantage of the market, not guessing where it's gonna stop, but actually go and react to the price up. Okay? So that's the dollar yen. Let me know what do you think about this pair in the comment section below this video. And now let's go to the next instance. By the way, before I that, I really want to take take a look here what happens classical conditions here on the dollar yen. So look at the numbers. Okay, take a look. We are talking about the month slowing down much less than one percent. The week still positive. Okay, but the last twenty four hours dropping momentum. That usually is a representation of a reduced momentum. Okay, and usually when it goes from very green to, you know, slightly green numbers, usually that's where the momentum is about to stop. And it's, it's happening finally, and it's coming soon to the end. And if we go back to the chart, I promise to explain what I anticipate for the longer run. For the longer run, I would not be surprised if we're gonna see here some sort of a rejection And then a final rally of this pair to complete a major divergence on the weekly and the monthly chart. Let me know what do you think about dollar yen on the comment section below this video. Let's go to the next one. The next instrument is going to be the euro dollar. But before that, if you find value in this video, I would really appreciate if you can take a moment, hit this like button below this video. A few words in the comment section will make a big difference, and I really appreciate your help. If you are new to our channel, welcome to our fantastic community. Please consider to subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. Just remember, enable the ring notification so you know when there is a new content available for you. So a lot was said about the euro dollar, okay? And for the long run, I think the euro dollar has a great chance actually to flip and continue upside. And there are a lot of reasons for that, but on the short run, we cannot deny the reality. It rallied towards a key broken support that becomes a resistance with the supply area. Before that, you can see here also a lot of money coming in play. It's all in the same area. So as soon as it entered the zone, Look what the market did. Moving average divergence and histogram divergence, which means a correction is due, and the correction is actually taking place and happened. So how can we benefit from that? So on the daily chart, we did not have any, you know, complete reversal signs. What we did have was couple of waves upside, another side that was close to As you can see, overbought conditions around the 80 was slightly lower in that case. Last time it happened was somewhere around this zone, and the market reacted accordingly. So that's what happens pretty much right now. But does that necessarily mean that that's over? I don't think so. There are a couple of very important levels on the go that we do need to pay attention to, because if they are respected, there is a great chance the euro will switch the directions. So let's take a look how that looks like on the 4-hour chart at the moment. Okay, I believe the euro dollar is about to complete this wave. Okay, so it did the 3 smaller waves before. Let me just show it to you here. And then ABCD correction. So the ideal scenario right now is the euro to do some You know, two waves or final three waves before potential reversal. With that in mind, right now this is the ABCD correction and breaking below that can push lower. However, take a look on some important levels. This is a major supportive zone. Every time sellers were trying to reject, buyers took control right away. So assuming the euro dollar will push towards this zone, we need to pay attention to that area. Okay, this zone could be a classical supportive area, especially if we will manage to get a bullish divergence complete between the big lows. Okay, so if the market will do something like that— lower highs, lower lows on the chart, lower lows on the indicate— uh, on the chart and higher lows on the indicator between the big swing lows Okay, and on the final leg, so something like this, like here. Okay, but very important, if this zone does not reject, and that's why I told you before, should we actually go and buy if a level came but there are no evidences? Well, from my point of view, the answer is no. You would know, you would, I hope you would not take any risk in real life without an evidence or fact or something you can base your decision on. Why would trading be different? Okay, wait for some rejection, because if this zone does not reject, then the next important level in mind is here. The classical— take a look, 161.61, another golden ratio. And this falls where? On a daily and a weekly supply area— uh, sorry, demand area and volume area. Take a look. If we go back to the daily chart, it will be right here. That's the 161.161. Where does that happen? Around a key demand area and huge volume zone. Okay, so that's the two levels to pay attention for the euro dollar. And until then, I keep my bearish view. So let me know what do you think about this one? I was reading a very interesting article this week that the euro should reach the area of 107, maybe even lower like 105, before it rallies again above 115. What do you think about it? I'm very curious. Share with us in the comments. Where do you believe the euro going? 107, 105, or it will hold and fly to 115 from here? Here. Let me know. And as per the numbers on the euro dollar, going back to the Home Trader Club members area, this is our market strength snapshot. Take a look on the euro dollar. It doesn't have significant value because the month and the 7 days are close to zero. No clear momentum. 24 hours starts to flip, yes, but it does not really give any sort of trend. It just makes us understand that the buyers are still weak. Uh, the numbers are shrinking and getting down. That's not a strong positive sentiment. The next instrument on the list would be the euro franc. So watching the euro franc, take a look what do we have here. We have, well, absolutely clean, right, bearish momentum. We can't Deny that. It's as obvious as the skies are blue, right? So take a look at that clean sequence— lower highs, lower lows. There's nothing here preventing the trend to continue, and I actually believe this trend could continue. However, I do believe that we are running very close to the place where we need to start and pay attention to potential reversal building up. The market is making lower highs, lower lows, yes. But on the other hand, this is the place where we could start to see bullish divergence coming in place on a weekly chart. Not only— also on the monthly. Take a look on the monthly chart here. If we get that done, this could become a huge bullish divergence. Lower lows on the chart versus higher lows on the indicator could be a huge buy opportunity. Besides that, take a look what happens here on the lower part of the Bollinger. Here we are riding on absolute lower part of the Bollinger without retracing to the opposite level. That by itself puts the pressure by the market that as soon as it finds the comfortable zone, it will push up to the opposite Bollinger Band. I love these signs. That's one of my favorite signs with the Bollinger Bands. And but the indicator you see here, that's the indicator I, um, use and we created with my team, uh, and, uh, I love it when these signs happen to be and they are combined with the other technical analysis elements. It could deliver huge movement, huge opportunities. You can see here on the blue, on the red, previous opportunities How great reactions the market had, and I would expect nothing else. So, as I said, I do believe we should go down. But take a look what is the interesting zone here. We have huge demand area and support area from the daily chart within this bearish channel. As you can see, the market making clean movement, lower highs, lower lows, without ending conditions, which makes me think this. Is yet to come. This is yet to complete daily-weekly divergence we saw before, and then we can talk about huge buys. Meanwhile, the pressure remains bearish, and I believe we should see the pair pushing lower. What are the key levels we need to pay attention to? Of course, the broken support that becomes the resistance right now, and the falling trend line we have here on this channel. And of course, The dynamic 200 moving average. These are the key zones here for the euro franc. As long as they hold, I believe this one is yet to make a new low. Let me know what do you think about the euro franc. Will we see that going to 0.90 below 0.95? Maybe all the way to 0.93 or 0.92. Share us in share with us in the comment section. And let's talk about the final one. This would be the Pound Aussie. So Pound Aussie had the right now weekly overriding on the Bollinger Bands. Take a look here, right on the upper Bollinger Band without pulling back to the to the opposite direction. Okay, this indicator again, as I said, it's one of my favorites. Of course, in combination with other analysis, which I'll explain in a moment. But when these signs happen, that means. Get ready, opportunities are building up. Yeah, it's a weekly chart, so it's not like we can expect, oh, so it will happen now. It could take time, okay? But pay attention to that. This indicator is absolute beast. You can get your copy in my blog. Take a look right now on this video playing on the screen and you will, uh, um, see where and how you can download this indicator. So what do we have? Take a look on the last times that happens. Riding on the Bollinger Bands, boom. Riding on the upper Bollinger Bands, boom. I expect— well, maybe not a boom for a new low, but I definitely expect to see here a great rejection and move down. Okay, so here is why. We are right next to a key, absolutely key supply area. Take a look. Sellers— buyers are in control, sellers reject, push down. Okay, buyers in control, sellers reject, push down. Then on the move down, buyers reject, sellers push down. Buyers attempt again, and here, and sellers reject and take huge control with this major candle, as you can see, at that zone. Okay, so it's a massive, massive, massive, uh, supply area. If it will hold, we should look for the reversal sign. Okay, take a look. We start to see some slowing down momentum while the market is making higher highs. Indicator starts to indicate lower highs. That's a potential reversal sign. Going to the daily chart, and on all this rally between all the highs, there is a huge potential bearish divergence developing. There were no reversal signs completed. Yet, and that's exactly what I'm looking at. Okay, take a look on this major trend line. It will have to be broken and respected before it— the move down really will take control. However, on the lower time frame, we can start playing it a little bit more aggressive. There is an uptrend line here, and we can start to see fake high push down. Potential another fake high. Okay, and that's what I want to see. I want to see fake high, and then the most recent trend line broken, lower lows on the chart. Basically trend change, right? Retest and respected trend line, and then start to look for the move down. The first target zone for such could be the previous volume zone with the lows, and then of course remember the long term. Daily chart with this we saw before with a daily trend line. For example, if this one would be eventually broken, then the next potential target for that is this huge area. So the pound Aussie has a great potential. But does that mean Monday comes and we sell? Wait for the evidences. Wait for the reversal. Yes, you might miss few points. But at least you are not trying to call the top and regret if the market's simply pushing up. Wait for the signs. Wait for the sellers showing they are taking control because without it, why would the trend stop? Potential—it's only potential reversal. Let the reversal happen. Wait for these signs that show if that happens. Then your chances would be increased. There will be no guarantee, but your chances would be increased. So that's a massive opportunity I follow, and I believe that once it triggers, if it triggers and respected the levels, it could be an amazing one. 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