Will Dubai Real Estate Crash? (2025)

You've probably seen the headlines: Dubai market is oversupplied, prices are at the peak, and that there's probably gonna be a correction. But here's what most people don't understand. Yes, there is a lot of units, and yes, reports like Fitch project over 200,000 units to be handed over in the next 2 years. But what does the population data and government reports actually tell us? My name is Aidan Doyle, and over the last 3 years I've sold real estate here in the UAE, and prior to that I sold real estate in the UK. Over the years I've numerous investors invest here in the UAE. I've seen people make money and I've saw people lose money, but knowing the right facts is what determines the outcome of their investment. And today we're breaking it all down. Is Dubai market really oversupplied? Is there a crash coming to the market that you should be aware of? Well, today we'll break it down with real numbers so that you can make an educated decision for yourself to understand whether now is the best time to invest here in the market. So let's get into it. Let's start with the number that triggered it all. Over the next 2 years, 2025 and 2026, there's going to be a total of 210,000 units handed over here in Dubai. 90,000 of them units to be handed over in 2025, and 120,000 of them units to be handed over in 2026. Now, although that number is massive, here's the catch. In reality, only 30 to 40% of the projects that are scheduled to hand over here in Dubai actually hand over time, meaning that the majority of these units are going to fall over into the year after. It always has been the case, and it probably always will be. As much as agents might tell you otherwise, you have to take this into consideration when purchasing a unit here in Dubai. Now let's layer in the demand side. We've looked at the supply, we know that this is a significant amount, but who's to say that Dubai's population isn't growing at a rapid pace? According to Dubai Statistics Center, in Q1 alone of 2025, we've already had over 50,000 new residents here in Dubai. And in the first half of the year, we've had over 110,000 new residents. So we are projected to end the year over 200,000 new residents in 2025 alone. And that number just keeps getting bigger and bigger every single year for obvious reasons. In 2024, only 27,000 units actually handed over here in Dubai, and with a population increase of 170,000, that's crazy. If you actually look at the statistics of how many people per home tend to move in, it's usually 3 to 4. But even if you do 27 times 3, 27 times 4, it's still a massive shortage compared to 170,000 people. Now you might say, well, not everybody's going to buy and some people are going to rent. Then yeah, that's correct. There is going to be an aspect of that. There's still a significant difference in demand versus supply, hence why the prices absolutely went through the roof over the last 2 years. And that's without even considering the massive increase in holiday homes and short-term rentals. So while everyone's shouting oversupply, the data's just saying something else, and that's that there's a shortage. Now here's what most people forget: Dubai is still a very young market in comparison to the likes of London, New York, or even Miami. And when the population's growing this fast, the typical real estate cycle It just doesn't apply here. Dubai's population is projected to grow up to 5.8 million people by 2040. And keep in mind, the current population today is only at 3.9. That's over 1.9 million people over the next 15 years alone. So are we oversupplied? No, we're still early. This market isn't peaking. The prices have shot up, yes, because there's been an increase of residents and there's been too much demand for the supply, of course. But what the market's really doing is it's layering its foundations for future growth. But the problem is, if you try and read Dubai market the same way you read the London market, the New York market, these old mature markets, it's going to be really hard for you to read and predict that. And you're probably going to miss out on hundreds of opportunities right in front of your eyes. Now, here's the biggest difference between the Dubai market and most other global cities. Dubai market is regulated and it's heavily regulated. But today in 2025, regulations are hard. Firstly, they must own 100% of the land that they're going to build on before they can even sell it or market the property. Secondly, they need to deposit 30 to 50% of the construction costs into an escrow account, and they can only access these funds based on the progression of the build. And most importantly, if you want to launch any new real estate project here in Dubai, you have to actually get the approval from the Dubai High Supply Committee, which is a government-led committee also known as the Higher Real Estate Planning Committee. Now, this committee was introduced in 2019 by Sheikh Mohammed to control the supply and demand balance. That's one thing that this country has over many other countries in the world. It doesn't only prevent the oversupply, but it prevents the duplication of projects here in Dubai. This is something very unique to Dubai that's been implemented over the last 6 years, and it's been very successful, hence why the market's actually boomed from 2019 all the way to 2025, and it makes Dubai market more secure and more regulated for the investors like yourself. So this isn't just random development and people selling off-plan here, there, and everywhere. It's actually one of the most controlled development environments in the world. Developers can't touch the investor's money unless Dubai Land Department say so. They will only release certain amounts of funds from the escrow to tie in with the construction speed of the project. And if for whatever reason that developer doesn't complete the project, then your money is protected by the Dubai Land Department as an investor. They'll do one of two options. They'll either appoint a new developer to finish the project, or they will start the liquidation process, and then they will actually be distributing the funds from the escrow evenly to the investors who invested in the project. This is why so many international investors are pouring the money into Dubai, because it's now a safe place to invest. We don't get abandoned projects here anymore. That's all old news. This isn't just random growth. It's all behind the Sheikh's plans for the city. One thing that Dubai has over many cities is that it's an engineered economy. Everything is strategic, everything is planned, and that's exactly why we have a supply committee to ensure that there's not an oversupply, nor is there a crash in the market. Let's be real, no market's perfect. There will be overpriced launches, there will be slowdowns, and most likely there will be a correction at some point. But a crash? It just isn't realistic, not based on the data and everything that we know and covered on this video so far. Let's dig into what's actually important. Well, firstly, you can resell your off-plan property at any time here in Dubai. Your off-plan asset is always liquid, and there's always going to be investors looking to purchase into the off-plan resale market because they prefer to pick something up that's closest to the handover rather than getting something direct from developer. You have full transparency over the market demand, the current prices, and even you can check up on the project completion status using Dubai REST app. The prices, you can use DXB Interact or Bayut Estimate, for example. Secondly, most developers will link their payment plan to construction, so they're motivated to actually speed up the build rather than slowing it down. And finally, the pure trust that investors have especially the wealthiest of investors that are putting here into Dubai real estate is a core aspect to the market growth. Now let's go back to what we said earlier about only 30 to 40% of projects actually completing here in Dubai and why that is and why that will always be. Well, we have to actually look at why developers want to do this, because most of the time it's intentional. We've already covered the fact that if a payment plan is linked to construction, why wouldn't the developer want to speed up the construction in order to get paid quicker? Well, there is a bigger reason behind this, and it's to control the supply in the market. So even when the project is ready and ready to be handed over, and as much as that developer wants to take that final handover payment from the investor, they know that if they give every single owner the keys on the same day, what's going to happen? Everyone who's renting will open it to the market the same day. Everyone who's selling will also sell it the same day— not necessarily sell it the same day, but they will put it online and list it with agents. And before you know it, you've got hundreds of units on the market, and then buyers and tenants can negotiate the price of the units based on the fact that there is so many options to choose from. Whereas if you reverse this and the developer only releases maybe 10 units a week, out of them 10 units, maybe half are going to live in it, and then out of that, over 5 units, they're going to have maybe 2 or 3 sell, and then the other 2 or 3 are going to rent it. So you'll never have that problem of oversupply, especially not with the same type. When you've got a building like 1 beds, 2 beds, 3 beds, you've got a townhouse community of 3, 4, 5 bedroom villas. Then you'd never have to worry about this issue because the developers, especially the major developers, they're clever about the way that they do this to ensure that they keep their brand and they keep their reputation in the market. The most important aspect to all of this is actually holding your asset value. Would you really want the developers to speed up construction and hand over units early only for you to lose value on your asset? No, of course not. And that's exactly why this is done. It's strategic and it's proven to work. And this is what people just don't get. The oversupply fear that people are getting, it just isn't backed by population growth. It isn't backed by developers maybe stalling their handovers to control supply, nor is it backed at the fact that there is a supply committee, actually a committee governed by the law, to ensure that there's not an oversupply in the market. All that they're looking at is the number of units being launched, scaring people with this massive number in comparison to than maybe smaller numbers that have been launched over the last 5 years. And at the end of the day, it's all relative and it's all controlled. And that's what you, the investor, has to take into consideration. So if you're watching this and wondering what to do, don't follow the headlines or articles that just want clickbait. Speak to an educated, experienced agent in the market who can back up everything they say with data, because that's all that matters in the end of the day. It's the data that drives the market. You need to check what's actually coming, when it's coming, and more importantly, how fast it's coming. Think of the investment over years rather than think of the investment over the quarters in the short term. Most markets, they'll probably be investing for the next 5 to 10 years. But for some reason in Dubai, people have this strategy to invest within 6 to 12 months and expect to make 20-30%. Like, it just doesn't make sense. Be strategic, invest for the long term. And know that the investment choice that you make will pay off in the long term regardless. If it goes up quicker than expected and you make that significant appreciation in the short term, well, that's just a bonus, but don't make that the primary focus. Just keep in mind that Dubai's government are planning for 2040. They have a 2040 vision, and so should you. Do you have the 2040 vision, or do you have the 2025 to 2027 vision? What's your investment strategy? One of the most important metrics to follow is that you invest where the demand will be in the future and you have that vision, rather than investing where it's already peaked and people can see the returns or have saw the returns over the last few years. You need to be looking into the studies and the likes of the D33 agenda, the Dubai 2040 vision, and what that is. And you need to consider, is this a place where people are going to want to live? Maybe are they going to want to work here? Is this going to be a central hub for people? And are people going to be selling here in the few years down the line? And if yes, then that's your play, and that's where you should be investing your money. There's other metrics that you can also follow, like not just looking at the overall supply, even though we know that there is still a lot more demand to come versus the supply, actually breaking up the supply and going, okay, well, that bit of supply is apartments, that bit of the supply is townhouses, and that bit of the supply is luxury villas, because every market has got different segments within the overall supply, and the supply should never be generalized as a whole. Because how can you know that there's not an undersupply for one asset over another? Now let's look at some real statistics here. 80% of the projects that we discussed before, out of the 210,000 units that are gonna hand over, over the next 2 years, are actually made up of apartments. Now that might be something you didn't know. The other 20% is made up of townhouses and villas. You could even break that down even narrower and look at how many of that 20% is standalone villas and independent luxurious villas. Versus how many are townhouses, which are connected in a row, back-to-back units, like them sort of style units. Now, if you broke that up even smaller, you'd actually look at around 18% townhouses and you'd be having around 2% in standalone villas, which is absolutely ridiculous when it comes to supply versus demand. Only 2% of 210,000 units is actually standalone villas. How crazy is that? So now I'm going to ask you again, is there really an oversupply coming to Dubai market, or are you just looking in the wrong place to invest? So let's wrap it all up. Is the Dubai market regulated and controlled by the government? Yes. Is there really an oversupply versus the demand, especially when you split up the segments of the supply? No. And if you're making an investment decision based on fear, then you're going to miss out on massive opportunity where others are going to ride this wave over the coming years and make amazing returns here in the market. So if you want to know more about picking the right investment, the right area, the right building, the right type of unit—villa, apartment, what have you—then contact me in the first link in the description below. It'll take you straight to my WhatsApp, and let's have a chat. That's all for today. My name is Aidan Doyle. Thanks for watching, and hope you make the right investment decisions. See you in the next video.