Alan Solarsh trades XAU/USD on Feb 20, watching price action near the all-time high around 4709. Gold shows doji candles and large moves on the 4-hour and 1-minute charts, with retail traders 58% short. He warns against FOMO and increasing position sizes at highs.
Questions this video answers
Tuesday the 20th (evening, '20 to 9' — speaker's local time).
42% long / 58% short.
Around 4709 cited as an all-time high; 4700 noted as a psychological level.
Consensus 212 (jobless claims).
The 8-period EMA (referred to as 'eight ema').
Chapters
So I just done yoga and went for a swim. It's 20 to 9. It's a date. Tuesday the 20th. What a life. It's amazing. Check at this. Not a wave. It's like Monaco in round. Amazing. So let's look at the. Not that one. Okay. So firstly I've got my blue banner which is awesome. So we're in profit, which is fantastic. So yesterday there was a doji and I thought that because the US was closed. Here's the doji. Let's try and draw. Here's the dojis. So it's more the one on the. In the. In the red. This one over here, that's the doji. So I thought because the US was closed I thought that the banks were manipulating and the price was going to go south and possibly that doji was going to create an evening star and we were going to get a reversal. That's what I thought. So we'll see. Maybe the US wants their pound of flesh and maybe they're going to shoot the price north and then we're going to get an order block here. Either we're going to have a demand zone or a distribution zone. I don't know. So let's go and see. This is the. The one minute chart. H4. Yeah, look at that. Hey, this is today. Look at that big candle. Isn't that mad? So new all time high. Going to take a screenshot cuz I'm not wearing my glasses. GE was 4709 and that's an all time high. And we're now on a new psychological level. And what is my blue banner say? Almost six sixty which is great. And what else can I tell you? Let's go look at the news and see what's happening with the news today and the sentiments of XAU USD. So we may be hitting exhaustion on retail. So let's check it out. Gold 42% longs and shorts of 58. So that's awesome. And we'll now see which way the institutions push it. So only 42% long which is amazing. So yeah, we'll just wait and see what happens there and then let's see the news calendar. What's happening today? Nothing. Tomorrow? Nothing. What's that? Inflation rate. The uk. Let's see what's happening on Wednesday. Nothing. Thursday day we've got job loss claims as usual and I'll just take a screenshot and see job loss claims. 212 is the consensus. So we'll see what happens. 212 is more people are losing Their jobs, which is deflationary. So gold could pump. That's if the actual is more than the consensus. So if it's above 212, that is more deflationary sentiment and or a print, not even sentiment. It's actuals. And then gold will pump North. And what else have we got here? Sorry about enlarging it, but not wearing my glasses. So what else is happening on Friday? Zip. So we can expect when New York opens, possibly the price is going to go further north. 47.50. Wow, that'll be amazing. So now's not the time to be fomoing into gold. Okay. We need to wait for a reversal. When the reversal comes down to here. Let's take a screenshot. So when the reversal comes down, hopefully the eight ema, this line over here will cruise up. And then when the second candle opens below the atma, I'll add stop losses to all my open trades. When the price comes down, those trades will close. And as they close, new trades will open on my robot and hopefully we can get past this demand zone and we'll get trades that are opening down here, which is awesome. And then when the second candle opens above the atma, then ladies and gentlemen, I'm going have a seriously blue banner, which is great. So when the price comes down here, my blue banner is going to disappear and I'll go back into drawdown. I want to get trades in this area here and below. That's what I want to do. So increasing your lot size right at the top of the chart, not a good idea. Now's the time to be conservative, not risk on. You guys need to be risk off. Okay. Do not increase your lot sizes and get all like excited because you got a blue banner because that we're at an all time high and the chances of it reversal specifically because we're at an a psychological level. Okay. Of 4700 psychological level. So generally when you get to a 00 or a 5, 0, the price can reverse suddenly and then you've increased your risk and now you've got a massive drawdown. So not the time to be risk on. And that's what I have to say for today. Enjoy trading and I'll see you on my discord group. If you're watching this on YouTube, subscribe to my channel and give me a like, give me some comments, tell me what you want to hear and then I'll see you on my discord channel. My links are below. It's free to join and I'll see you there. Cheers.
