Bitcoin's halving cycle predicts peaks every four years, with the next in 2025-2026. But some argue crypto is entering a "supercycle" driven by institutional money and regulatory clarity, with JPMorgan, Vanguard, and Bank of America now backing blockchain. The speaker bets on the supercycle.
Chapters
There is a massive war going on in the crypto space between the people who believe we are at the end of a 4-year cycle and there's really not going to be a cycle top until another 4 years from now. Those who believe we're following more liquidity cycles rather than Bitcoin halving cycles, that we may be entering the supercycle like CZ from Binance tweeted a few weeks ago. This is interesting to watch because both groups have interesting things to go off of. The 4-year cycle is the 4-year cycle. Crypto has followed this Pattern 2012, 17, 2021, 2025 peak, except for there was no alt season here. Bitcoin peaked, nothing else peaked. And again, see you in 2028, 2029. Until then, it's crypto winter. Now for me, we have never seen this level of institutional adoption and this much retail hate in crypto all at the same time, especially when people are talking about this supercycle. This is the idea. Supercycle is when we break out of 4-year cycles into a larger global adoption cycle, like what we could be seeing right here with huge things happening across institu— many people pointing to what's happening in the economy. We have a hot GDP print. We just had the ISM US manufacturing activity, the best in 4 years. It's jumping. And how all the crypto bull runs line up with this metric jumping. Also, we have the Clarity Act in its final stages looking to get passed. This is clarity between the CFTC and SEC. This allows groups to have digital commodity licenses. Brokers can actually trade and buy and sell this. It'll separate Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others into commodities and others into securities, giving tons of clarity for Wall Street to finally play in crypto, which as of the last 90 days, many institutions that previously hated crypto like JP Morgan have flipped their stance and are now pro-crypto. You see them building their new blockchain. They launched their JPM coin. These guys hated crypto two years ago. You saw Vanguard flip. Bank of America is now recommending an allocation to their clients. These are all things you would see in a quote unquote supercycle. We also have a pro Bitcoin president, vice president, Fed chair, SEC chair, and CFTC chair. We've never seen this before. Right now, Bitcoin is more oversold than it was in the COVID crash. Again, this debate is a crazy debate back and forth. For me, I'm leaning towards more we're entering a larger liquidity cycle with institutional adoption happening right now at mass, and I want to be on that side of the trade. Follow along to stay in the loop.
