LIVE Fed Announcement, Will Interest Rates Go Up, Is Inflation Transitory?

All right, we're live.

Our strong guidance on interest rates and on our balance sheet will ensure that monetary policy will continue to deliver powerful support to the economy until the recovery is complete. Widespread vaccinations, along with unprecedented fiscal policy actions, are also providing strong support to the recovery. Indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. And real GDP this year appears to be on track to post its fastest rate of increase in decades.

Yep.

Much of this rapid growth reflects the continued bounce back in activity from depressed levels. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic remain weak but have shown improvement. Household spending is rising at a rapid pace, boosted by the ongoing reopening of the economy, fiscal support, and accommodative financial conditions. The housing sector is strong, and business investment is increasing at a solid pace. In some industries, near-term supply constraints are restraining activity. Forecasts from FOMC participants for economic growth this year have been revised up since our March Summary of Economic Projections. Even so, the recovery is incomplete, and risks to the economic outlook remain. As with overall economic activity, conditions in the labor market have continued to improve, although the pace of improvement has been uneven.

Everyone's getting back to work.

419,000 per month on average in April and May, with the leisure and hospitality sector continuing to post notable gains. Employment in this sector and the economy as a whole remains well below pre-pandemic levels. The unemployment rate remained elevated in May at 5.8%, and this figure understates the shortfall in employment, particularly as participation in the labor market has not moved up from the low rates that have prevailed for most of the past year.

Interesting. So no movement there.

Factors related to the pandemic, such as caregiving needs, ongoing fears of the virus, and unemployment insurance payments, appear to be weighing on employment growth. These factors should wane in coming months against a backdrop of rising vaccinations, leading to more rapid gains in employment. Looking ahead, FOMC participants project the labor market to continue to improve, with the median projection for the unemployment rate standing at 4.5% at the end of this year and declining to 3.5% by the end of 2023.

That straight line up.

And those least able to shoulder the burden have been hardest hit. In particular, despite progress, joblessness continues to fall disproportionately on lower-wage workers in the service sector and on African Americans and Hispanics. Inflation has increased notably in recent months.

Yeah, let's get into this.

Change in PCE prices was 3.6% in April and will likely remain elevated in coming months before moderating. Part of the increase reflects the very low readings from early in the pandemic falling out of the calculation. as well as the pass-through of past increases in oil prices to consumer energy prices. Beyond these effects, we are also seeing upward pressure on prices from the rebound in spending as the economy continues to reopen, particularly as supply bottlenecks have limited how quickly production in some sectors can respond in the near term. These bottleneck effects have been larger than anticipated, and FOMC participants have revised up their projections for inflation Notably for this year. As these transitory supply effects abate, inflation is expected to drop back toward our longer-run goal. And the median inflation projection falls—

It's not transitory. I'm so sorry to break it, everybody.

Next year and 2.2% in 2023. The process of reopening the economy is unprecedented, as was the shutdown at the onset of the pandemic. As the reopening continues, shifts in demand can be large and rapid, and bottlenecks, hiring difficulties, and other constraints could continue to limit how quickly supply can adjust, raising the possibility that inflation could turn out to be higher and more persistent than we expect. Our new framework for monetary policy emphasizes the importance of having well-anchored inflation expectations, both to foster price stability and to enhance our ability to promote our broad-based and inclusive maximum employment goal.

All right.

Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations have generally reversed the declines seen earlier in the pandemic and have moved into a range that appears broadly consistent with our longer-run inflation goal of 2%. If we saw signs that the path of inflation or longer-term inflation expectations were moving materially and persistently beyond levels consistent with our goal, We'd be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy.

So they're not doing anything. Inflation's 2%. It's all transitory, right?

Vaccinations has limited the spread of COVID-19 and will likely continue to reduce the effects of the public health crisis on the economy. However, the pace of vaccinations has slowed and new strains of the virus remain a risk. Continued progress on vaccinations will support a return to more normal economic conditions. The Fed's policy actions have been guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people, along with our responsibilities to promote the stability of the financial system.

People aren't working because you're not—you're paying them not to work, Jerome.

With inflation having run persistently below 2%, we will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2% for some time so that inflation averages 2% over time. And longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2%. We expect to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these employment and inflation outcomes are achieved. With regard to interest rates, we continue to expect that it will be appropriate to maintain the current 0 to 1/4% target range for the federal funds rate.

He stumbled over that.

Labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessment of maximum employment. And inflation has risen to 2% and is on track to moderately exceed 2%.

They can't move those interest rates. They're sticking to them.

Many participants forecast that these favorable economic conditions will be met somewhat sooner than previously projected. The median projection for the appropriate level of the federal funds rate now lies above the effective lower bound in 2023. Of course, these projections do not represent a committee decision or plan. And no one knows with any certainty where the economy will be a couple of years from now. More important than any forecast is the fact that whenever liftoff comes, policy will remain highly accommodative. Reaching the conditions for liftoff will mainly signal that the recovery is strong and no longer requires holding rates near zero. In addition, we are continuing to increase— continuing to increase our holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month And of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward our maximum employment and price stability goals.

So no moves, man.

Since March 2020, has materially eased financial conditions and is providing substantial support to the economy.

Your balance sheet's $8 trillion earlier today, twice what it was in 2012.

Since the Committee adopted its asset purchase guidance last December. While reaching the standard of substantial further progress is still a ways off, participants expect that progress will continue. In coming meetings, the Committee will continue to assess the economy's progress toward our goals. As we have said, we will provide advance notice before announcing any decision to make changes to our purchases. On a final note, we made a technical adjustment today to the Federal Reserve's administered rates. The IOER and overnight RRP rates were adjusted upward by 5 basis points in order to keep the federal funds rate well within the target range and to support smooth functioning in money markets. This technical adjustment has no impact on the appropriate path for the federal funds rate or stance of monetary policy. To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to support the economy for as long as it takes to complete the recovery. Thank you. I look forward to your questions.

Wow. Okay. So no changes at all. And interest rates can be low for a long time till 2023 as a target. Kind of what we thought, what we planned out.

Walk us through expectations you have specifically when it comes to the labor market going into 2023.

Oh, Rachel's back on.

Curious about people who may have left the labor market who have yet to come back, or who may face, uh, issues with childcare. Perhaps they've retired early. Any barriers that you see keeping people from the labor market as you consider full employment going into 2023? Thank you.

Thank you.

Um, she had Ray Dalio on before and asked him the dumbest questions I've ever heard in my life. Last time they were on.

When you look at the demand for workers and the level of job creation and think ahead, I think it's clear and I am confident that we are on a path to a very strong labor market, a labor market that shows low unemployment, high participation, rising wages for people across the spectrum. I mean, I think that's, that's shown in our projections. It's shown in outside projections. And if you look through the current Timeframe, I think one and two years out, we're going to be looking at a very, very strong labor market.

Everything's great. Everything's up, right? It's all good at the Fed. No problems. Nothing to see here. We've just overprinted our money supply, and everything's getting inflated, and there's a labor shortage, and we can't get any supplies, which he actually mentioned as well. I'm happy they brought that up, but it's not transitory. That won't happen again.

At the same time, we have seen in terms of participation, we've seen a significant number of, of people retire. And so we don't actually know exactly what labor force participation will be as we go forward. But I would tend to, to look at it and think that it can return to high levels, although it may take some time to do that. But overall, this is a This is going to be a, you know, a very strong labor market in terms of the near term, you ask as well. So we see a couple of things, a few things that seem likely to be holding back labor supply. There are very large amounts of job openings and they're very large.

Yes. Yes, there are people that are getting paid by the government to not work.

Filling those jobs somehow feels slower than it might be. So I point to a number of things, the first of which is just that Most of the, the act of sort of going back to one's old job, that's kind of already happened. So this is a question of people finding a new job, and that's just a process that takes longer. There may be something of a speed limit on it. You've got to find a job where your skills match what, uh, you know, what—

Or you got to find a job that pays you more than the unemployment checks you're getting by twofold because you're not working.

So that's, that's sort of an natural thing. In addition, um, I would say that we look at, for example, uh, a significant number of people still say that they're, uh, concerned about going back to work in jobs where there's a lot of public-facing because of, because of COVID So that's clearly holding back some people, and that should diminish as—

Get the vaccine!

Move ahead. There's also, uh, the question of child care. Many are engaged in caretaking, and as schools reopen and child care daycare centers open in the fall— or not in the fall— then we should see, we should see that supporting labor force participation by caretakers. Finally, unemployment insurance for something like 15 million people will either end or be diminished as we move through the summer and into, into into the fall by the end of September. And I'd like some of— some that may also encourage some to go back in and take jobs. So you would think that—

A lot of people.

Job creation. So put all those together, I would expect that we would see strong job creation building up over the summer and going into, uh, going into the fall. I'll also say though, last thing I'll say is, um, This is an extraordinarily unusual time, and we really don't have a template or, you know, any experience of a situation like this. And so I think we have to be humble about our ability to understand the data. It's not a time to try to reach hard conclusions about the labor market, about inflation, about the path of policy. We need to see more data. We need to be a little bit patient. And I do think, though, that we'll, we'll, we'll be seeing some things coming up in coming months that will inform.

For people in the chat, the 2024, that was their target. People hopping on 2023. Well, 2022, they're going to start. The plan is to start raising rates a little bit. 2023, 2024, be back to regular interest rates.

Your median forecast on inflation seems to assume a pretty, pretty tame outlook for the rest of the year. As you know, the 3-month annualized rate for the past 3 months was, I think, 8.4% in the CPI. And I'm just wondering sort of how much longer we can sustain those kinds of rates before you would get nervous. Thanks.

So just rolled out of bed to ask that question.

Inflation has come in above expectations.

No, it seems like a nice guy.

But if you look behind the headline numbers, you'll see that the incoming data are consistent with the view that prices, the prices that are driving that higher inflation, Are from categories that are being directly affected by the recovery from the pandemic and the reopening of the economy.

It's not all transitory. I this is bugging me so bad. Every every industry is up fifty to hundred percent. It's all transitory. Yeah, it's all.

Prices like that have moved up really quickly because of the shortages and bottlenecks and the like. They should stop going up, and at some point they they in some cases should actually go down. And we did see that in the case of lumber. Another example where we haven't seen that yet is prices for used cars, which accounted for more than a third of the total increase in core inflation. Used car prices are going up because of sort of a perfect storm of very strong demand and limited supply. It's going up at just an amazing annual rate. But we do think that it makes sense that that would stop and that, in fact, it would reverse over time. So we think we'll be seeing some of that. When will we be seeing it? We're not sure. That narrative seems, still seems quite likely to prove correct, though. Although, you know, as I pointed out at the last press conference, the timing of that is pretty uncertain. And so are the effects in the near term. But over time, it seems likely that these very specific things that are driving—

Regular rates, Jaylen, he, I think they were back to the graph. I can't remember exactly. I think it was around 2.5%, 1.5%, 2.5%, somewhere in there, maybe up to 3%. Is that what their target was for 2023?

The labor market is going to be important both for the maximum employment goal, but also for inflation. And we'll be looking at that. And as I mentioned, we expect and I expect that we'll see increases in supply over coming months as the factors that we believe have been suppressing supply abate, wane, move down. So, yeah, I can't give you the exact—

The everything shortage right now.

But I would say that we do expect inflation to move down. If you look at the— if you look at the forecasts for 2021 and 2000— sorry, 2022 and 2023 among my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee, you'll see that people do expect inflation to move down meaningfully toward our goal. And I think the full range of—

How's it going to move down when you've got an infrastructure bill coming out? You've got you're still giving unemployment checks. How are you going to bring that down? Just it's going to naturally, naturally set back. You guys are going to stop printing money. I I don't see it with free money.

At CNBC. Hi, thank you, Chair Powell, for doing this. My question for you is that you mentioned that your colleagues did have a discussion about. The progress that you're making toward your, your goals in order to consider tapering your asset purchases. In that discussion, you said that you didn't— haven't made substantial progress yet, but that you expect to continue to make progress. In that discussion, did you guys talk about a timeline for when you expect to see that progress be made and when you might consider starting to reduce those purchases?

Right, so, um, I expect we'll be able to say more about timing as we see more data. Basically, there's not a lot more light I can, I can shed on that, but you can think of this meeting that we had as the talking about talking about meeting, if you like. I now suggest that we retire that term, which is, which has served its purpose well. I think they're going to talk about potentially doing things. Their hands are tied right now since we adopted that guidance in December, the economy has clearly made progress, although we are still a ways from our goal of substantial further progress. Participants expect continued progress ahead toward that objective, and assuming that is the case, it will be appropriate to consider announcing a plan for reducing our asset purchases at a future meeting. So at coming meetings, the Committee will continue to assess the economy's progress toward our goals and will give advance notice Fed's balance sheet went to four trillion after two thousand the two thousand nine you know debacle.

They wanted to get back to one trillion. Today it's at eight trillion dollars that they own. It's just crazy. The Fed's buying Google. They're buying Apple. They're buying. They're just buying. They're buying equities. It's insane. Why is a central bank buying Google? It's just. Let me ask about inflation expectations.

You said they. I think you mentioned in your opening statement that you saw them as within target. Does that mean that some of the shorter-term measures we've seen out there, such as the New York Federal Reserve's 3-year outlook, which jumped a bit, should those sort of be dismissed? And are we only looking at longer-term inflation expectations? Good question. And would you describe those as still well anchored at this point? And on a related note, would the Fed consider publishing its index of common inflation expectations on a monthly basis?

Oh, thank you. Good question.

So we do tend to look at the longer-term inflation expectations because that's really, we think, what matters for inflation. So, and, you know, the shorter-term ones do tend to move around Based on, for example, gasoline prices. So you'll see if gasoline prices were to spike, you'll see the shorter-term inflation expectation measures, particularly the surveys, move up. And, and that's, that's maybe, maybe not a good signal for future inflation if gas happens to spike and then go back down again. Um, so we— yes, I think if you look at the broad range of longer-term inflation expectations. They've moved up. They moved down during the beginning of the pandemic, you know, sort of further exacerbating concerns that we might find ourselves where, for example, the ECB and the Bank of Japan have been, where you have expectations and inflation itself sliding down and you have a really hard time stopping that process once it begins. So that was a concern. So it's good actually to see inflation— longer-term inflation expectations move back up. To a range, it's a range that's consistent with what our objectives are. These are not precise measures, and that's— and they contain risk premiums of various kinds. And that's why we look at a broad range of them and tend to look at the movement of that broad range of indicators, which are from, you know, surveys of economists, surveys of the public, and also market-based. It's a wide index, as I'm sure you know.

That they keep changing to make sure that it's low. They keep changing the sample pool of what goes into that CPI number. Healthcare, tuition aren't included. There's a bunch of things that aren't included.

At a time when inflation was, was, uh, was still anchored and at around 2% or maybe even a little bit below. So, uh, the answer is yes, I think they are anchored and they're at a good place right now. It's gratifying to see them having moved up off of their pandemic lows. And you know, as you know, it's it's fundamental in our framework, our new framework, to to assure that inflation expect longer-term inflation expectations are anchored at a place that is consistent with our goal. We think that's so important.

It just sounds sounds like yeah, everything's fine. It's all good. We got a a burning house, and it's just great. And we're We're in control of it, even though we have no way to control anything. We'll take maybe one or two more here. We'll see what happens. Hi, thanks, Trupal.

Your economic projections today forecast.

Who are these dudes? Like, do your hair, fix your camera. Are these? They're just rolling out of bed, hopping on with the chairman of the Fed. What is going on?

And kind of more broadly, when you look at the median forecast for interest rates in 2023 showing not one but two interest rate increases at the time, I mean, is this kind of— can you describe the sort of tone of the discussion in the Committee? And are we really moving towards sort of a post-pandemic, post-COVID era of monetary policy? A stance?

Is there greater confidence, um, that, you know, the recovery will be— Be different? Great guy, I'm not making fun of him, but like, if you're gonna be on TV, like, do your hair, please.

Progress is one that the committee will make, and it would not be appropriate for me to lay out particular numbers that do or do not— that do or do not qualify. That, that is, you know, the process. Beginning now, at the next meeting, we will begin meeting by meeting to to assess that progress and talk about what we what we think we're seeing and and just do all the things that you do to sort of.

So it just sounds like I'm gonna I'm gonna turn him down a little bit right now, Jerome Powell. It just from there from there before things are great, we're gonna keep everything the same. We're not touching anything, which is I you know not a bad move, right? To just keep it. Going kick the can down the road. Hopefully people get back to work. Hopefully this supply labor shortage fixes itself. People start working again. We can get more things into the economy of all things, and so that inflation will taper itself from a supply demand curve aspect because right now you have money printing and you have a shortage of supply, and so that both things will put price. Much higher. Um, now what's causing it more? I don't know. I would argue it's a few things, but it would be on the, uh, on the side of money printing and the, the increase in the, the M2 money supply. Um, Capitals and Crates, Social Takes, the guys at the office. I know these guys are hilarious. Um, we want the dips, hiding inflation. I know it's, it's interesting. Um, Printer Girl Burr, it's yeah, not, not too big of an announcement today. From them. I feel like they're gonna let markets ride and just see what happens. The problem that I see, and I'm gonna turn this down a little bit, this is the problem I see, is, and this is what I've been yelling on our show for a while now, is, let me pull this, let me go here, I'll put me and Jerome next to each other, see if this works. So the problem that I keep seeing is when you have money so cheap, You have wealthy individuals with stocks or with real estate, use those 2 aspects. What they do is people with a lot of real estate borrow against their real estate for free and go and buy stocks. Guess what? Stocks tend, they go up because there's more buyers there. I guess people with stocks will borrow against those stocks and go buy real estate. What happens is we have this major asset inflation and where money is essentially free, You can go buy up, you know, more and more assets, more and more assets. And what happens if if there is any type of event? Now, Archegos Capital—I put out a video this couple months ago—that was a perfect example of an entire family office firm that lost over twenty billion dollars overnight in a bull market. It's not like there was this crazy downward 2007 crash. They they lost twenty billion dollars—their entire family office overnight in a Why? Because they were able to take more and more leverage against their portfolio, take riskier and riskier trades, and one little thing hiccupped, and it unraveled their entire portfolio and a couple of banks that took billions in losses. That's an example of other potentially— we can't see them right now because the tide is up. You don't know who's not wearing shorts when the tide's up, right? When the tide goes out, I'm guessing there is a number of firms that have ployed this to their advantage to take free money, lever up, lever up, and the people on the fringes, what happens when you either raise rates, and that's why Jerome Powell can't do it, they can't raise rates. If they raise rates, they will trigger this event of people getting margin calls, and they've got to sell stocks or real estate to cover margin calls, and guess what? It spurs on more and more selling. for more and more people to get margin called because we have levered up so much in this economy that their hands are tied, and we are kicking the can down the road to allow more people over the next 6 months, 10 months, 12 months to lever up even more and more and more, and it kicks the can down the road. Back to somebody who combat Michael Burry, right? I'd love if Michael Burry was on here, by the way. It'd be incredible, but you have people like Michael Burry saying, we're We're in the everything bubble, right? Everything. And he took a quarter billion dollar short on the 20-year Treasury last month, filed, and heavily shorting the Treasury. He's heavily shorting Tesla, speculative stocks that will just poof away. Now, when will this happen? We don't know, right? I mean, you look at Ray Dalio, long-term debt cycle, you see all these things. It should— there should be a market correction soon. But I mean, maybe we're entering— the other side of the point is maybe we're entering a whole new phase of monetary policy, right? Uh, the US is maybe different than other countries. Um, we won't— because we have the largest military on the planet. Um, let's see what Craig's got to say.

Inflation. In other words, does the FOMC have a look-back period, or does it plan to suppress inflation in outer years? Because over the next 3 years, you're going to be above inflation. So what is your lookback period? Does the committee have one? And if not, why not?

It's a good question.

And if they don't, why isn't this just flexible inflation target targeting without an average in a range of 2% to 2.25%?

Yeah, how are you going to come back and retrospectively calculate it?

Year and a half process, uh, the review that we did, um, and came out with at the end of that with the, with the new Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy. We looked carefully at the idea. We've all read all the literature around different formulas for makeup and things like that. And we concluded, and, you know, I strongly agree, that it's not wise to, to wed yourself to a particular formulation of that. So we did adopt a discretionary—

Oh.

There's an element of discretion in it. You know, it says that we will seek inflation that runs moderately above 2% for some time. And it's meant in a broad sense that we want inflation to average 2% over time. But under the old formula, under the old framework, what was happening was 2% was the ceiling because all of the errors were below. You were always getting back to 2%, so you were bouncing back and forth between 1.5% and 2%, and we wanted them to be centered around 2%. So that's, that's the approach that we're taking. And you're right, it's not, it's not a formulaic approach. We were clear on that when we announced it. Is there another part of your question, Craig?

That pretty much answers it. Thank you.

So yeah, we're just gonna keep it running. So, um, have I taken the, uh, have I taken the vaccine? Uh, that is a personal medical question, by the way. You probably shouldn't be asking people if they've taken the vaccine or not. My, my opinion. Michael Derby.

today will have any impact on that?

And then in a related question, do you think that Fed asset purchases are taking too many safe assets out of the market right now and creating maybe some dislocations?

So yeah, I mean, I think we need to have a healthy correction on everything that's going on. I think that's just something that we need to have happen. Now, it sounds like they don't think that needs to happen. They are playing with I think fire a little bit of how much money can they print. And actually, it's not a bad strategy. I mean, let's test the waters. I think for a while he said, you know what, we've been below inflation, inflation, let's boost it up. Let's see what can happen. We can make Americans very flush with dollars and put dollars into the entire world. And still, since Bretton Woods, everyone uses dollars as the medium of transaction. And it's the world currency backed by the largest, strongest military in the world that has a navy. Most militaries in the world do not have a navy. And we are, I mean, essentially really the only country in the world that has a navy. And so we protect all the waters. And so it's like, hey, well, if you're not going to use our dollars, we'll put a trade embargo on you and go from there. So if they can keep lying about inflation, I think they're totally lying about inflation. That's just my personal opinion. They're saying, yeah, it's 3%. I actually think it's 6%, 7%, 8%. And there's 2 groups of economists there, and I'm kind of in the group over here that says, Yeah, I think it's higher, a lot higher than they say. It's about double what they say. But if they can keep it running, the most powerful organization on the planet can keep this running. I mean, who's to say that, you know, people won't buy it, right? It's a lie, but if people buy the lie, it's fine. And guess what happens? All Americans get richer. Now, you might start getting priced out of things, but hopefully there's also deflationary things happening as well. You have technology, you have robots, things like that that cause deflation. Inflation in the market. So if we can keep inflation and deflation happening and potentially lie about our CPI numbers, that, you know, a lot of businesses look to that as, well, where should we price and add or take away things? You know, it's actually not a terrible strategy. So anyways, that's my thought. I guess, you know, no big announcements today besides the overnight rate. They are raising that just a little bit, which maybe is a good idea just to To help taper back things just a tad, but it seems like they are going to kick things to the next meeting, and that's what they've been doing for the last little bit. We'll see. I think there needs to be a correction. I think I think we are we are due. But again, people have been saying that since 2017, 2016. Oh, we're due for a correction. The next crash is coming. Well, guess what happened? Nothing. And it kept going up and up and up, and millionaires and billionaires have been made since 2016 to now. So. Who am I to say what's gonna happen in the future? Um, interesting, uh, time for today. All right, we're gonna wrap up. Thank you guys so much. Um, on our Facebook group, we're gonna go live in just a second. Uh, how to start a real estate fund, we're gonna start that in just a minute. If you guys want to come over there, it should be in the link. If you're on YouTube or something, click over to our Facebook group. I'm gonna go live there right now. Uh, thanks Jerome Powell, Chairman Powell, for a great meeting. He's a good-looking guy though.

I mean, look at this guy.

Last thing I'm gonna say, he's a good-looking dude. If I can look like him when I'm— I don't know how old he is. I mean, he's a pretty good-looking guy. Fit, he's got nice hair. What's Whatever, I'll give him that. I wish I looked like him when I'm older. So we'll see. Anyways, drop your guys' comments what you think is gonna happen over the next, you know, few months. I don't believe the 2023 target is gonna happen. I believe they are gonna either— one of two things are gonna happen. We're gonna have a huge market correction anyways because of inflation, or number two, they are gonna have to— by 2023, they're gonna keep rates at zero. Still, I don't I don't think the current environment right now allows for them to raise rates ever again. That's how bad they are. My personal opinion. Drop your thoughts below. Should be good. Thank you guys so much. I'm gonna end this out. See you guys in the next one.