The Clarity Act, crypto-friendly legislation with bipartisan support, has dropped from 75-90% odds of passing to 41% due to congressional recess and midterm focus. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong threatened to move the exchange overseas if it fails, while analyst Tom Lee predicts a parabolic crypto rally over 18-24 months if it passes.
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So will the Clarity Act pass for crypto? We're only at 41%, despite— you have people on the right and left both saying they want to make this happen, and even Democrats saying they oppose the new bill but we're going to work to get it over the finish line. You even have people like Brian Armstrong from Coinbase actually threatening to move Coinbase out of the United States unless this gets passed. That's how much work they spent on this thing. Now despite all this positive support and background, at least on prediction markets, we're still only at a 41% chance. I mean, a few months ago we were up in the a 75 to 90% chance. Now, I think this is the case because they go to recess in just next week and then they got midterms and all these people are going to be focused on midterm elections. They don't want to do anything to jeopardize their midterms here. And so I don't know, it's the prediction markets gives me pause. I want it to pass. It'll be amazing for crypto. Tom Lee saying the markets are going to go parabolic if this goes through, the best 18 to 24 months we've ever seen in crypto or in our lifetime. So we'll see if this goes through, but follow along to stay in the loop.