Bridger Pennington and Joe Brown debate when the US dollar loses its status as the world's reserve currency. Brown cites Ray Dalio's research showing reserve currencies last longest as their regimes decline, and argues that without a clear replacement ready, the dollar could have decades left despite inevitable change.
Chapters
The US dollar, we know it won't run forever. What we're doing won't run forever. I don't know if it'll end in 1 year or 20 years or 100 years. The question always comes back to compared to what? Well, we're bad, but compared to what?
The dollar is the cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry hamper, right? Typically throughout history, Ray Dalio talks about this as well, that when you get to the end of reigning power, there's a couple of things that last towards the end when everything else has kind of gone away. It's still the financial center of the world. It's still the reserve currency of the world. Um, and those 2 things kind of last the longest. And so when you find yourself asking the question, well, they're going to give up the dollar, but for what? Like there's no other alternative. That's actually a signal of it being, you know, near the end. And that could be a multi-decade period of time, but it's still not a, not a sign of strength. It's a sign of opportunity for newcomers.