A Cambridge study of 580 investment funds shows those launched during the dot-com bubble and 2008 financial crisis earned double or triple the returns of funds started in calmer years. The data suggest timing and luck may matter more than skill.
Chapters
Is it better to be good or lucky? Let's just look real quick. One of the most interesting charts I've ever seen in my entire life is this. This is a fund's average return correlated with the year they started. This is Cambridge University studied 580 funds that were large funds, multi-hundred million dollar funds correlated with the year they started. On the left, you have 1999, 2000, 2001. You see that big spike? What happened in 2001? Dot-com bubble. Interesting. Average return for funds that started in 2001 was an 18% return average. Almost triple the average fund return of 2003. You go forward to 2007, 2008, funds that started in 2000, 2008, 2007, 2008 almost doubled the performance of funds that started in 2014 or 2003. Is it better to be good or lucky or maybe a little bit of both?