If I Started Investing in 2026, This is What I’d Do
In this solo YouTube monologue, David Belle explains how he would approach investing if he were starting in 2026 with a 6‑month to 5‑year horizon. He argues that stock‑picking, rather than passive ETFs, is necessary for short‑term wealth creation because it captures fast‑moving momentum in sectors such as AI, semiconductors, renewables, EVs, health, and e‑commerce. Belle outlines a systematic screening framework he calls the “1‑4‑3, 4‑10” method: focus on US‑listed companies with market caps above $10 B, positive price‑to‑earnings, and four moving‑average trend signals, then apply valuation and catalyst checks. He stresses the primacy of momentum, the importance of balance‑sheet strength, and the need for disciplined risk management (position sizing, quarterly rebalancing, no fixed take‑profit targets). He categorises portfolio construction by three time‑horizons—6‑12 months (earnings‑catalyst plays), 1‑3 years (emerging leaders with strong CEOs), and 3‑5 years (undervalued innovators). He warns against common mistakes like recency bias, over‑concentration, and lack of exit plans. Finally, Belle introduces a $100 trillion infrastructure megatrend projected to 2040 and presents a market‑cap‑weighted “Fink Infrastructure Basket” (Caterpillar, United Rentals, Martin Marietta Materials, Nucor, Emerson Electric) with a TradingView formula, arguing that US‑focused, large‑cap infrastructure firms will benefit from massive government spending.
Chapters
Look, if I had to start investing today with just the next 6 months to 5 years in mind, here's exactly how I would approach it. This isn't financial advice. It's just how I'd think about short-term investing. And the reason I say short-term investing is, well, I don't know about you, but I don't want to wait till I'm 70 and can't enjoy it anymore with broken knees and a hip that I have replaced twice. So let's get into it, starting with why I choose picking stocks over boring, safe investing. So why stock picking? ETFs are fantastic. Stick for decades, but in the short term they move a little bit slower. Now, for younger people, we need to try and make more wealth. We can't buy a house at 3 times income anymore like our parents or grandparents, so we need to try and make up that wealth gap. And the best way to do that is by taking a bit of a higher risk. Stock picking gives leverage to trends, and later on in this video I'm going to highlight a $100 trillion trend that's emerging from now until 2040. Water, you're going to want to pay attention. But these trends might be in AI, technology, healthcare— it doesn't really matter. But what's important is to pay attention to the trends that are going to drive that momentum way, way higher. In the short term, you can't really rely on compounding, so you need companies that can move the needle fast. Now, in terms of picking stocks, what's actually driving the market right now? So naturally, we've got the AI boom, semiconductors, Cloud computing companies, these are all going bananas, as we well know. But you've also got energy companies as well, you know, the renewables. Whether you agree with it or not, it doesn't matter. We're investors, we want to make money. And so this is a fantastic sector to be looking at. You've also got consumer trends like electric vehicles, health and wellness, and e-commerce. Think of Shopify, for instance. Now, short-term investors chase mini-cycles. So spotting the theme is half the battle. But the good thing is these mini cycles develop into bigger, bigger cycles as well. So we know why we're picking stocks as a method of investing and what's driving the market currently. But how do we actually pick the right stocks outside of pure gambling, that is? Well, there are a few factors to look at. So the first factor: is there an event or trend that could move this stock in the next 1 to 3 years. Think AI adoption, government policy, or product launches. Because what's interesting about these catalysts is that they are in fact the momentum driver. And I spoke about momentum drivers consistently through my YouTube because I focus purely on momentum as a factor because it has provided the most annualized returns over the last 30 years outside of any other factor, whether it's value investing whether it's even arbitrage, whether it doesn't matter. Momentum is the driver of markets. Now, the second thing is valuation. Is it priced for perfection already, or does it still have room? Now, the interesting thing about valuations is it can change all the time. Let's take a company with high debt. Right now we are looking at a cutting regime in terms of interest rates. So what will happen to that debt burden? That debt burden is going to fall as interest rates on that company's debt becomes cheaper. What does this do to the company's margins? They increase. So evaluation maybe before the last rate cut by the Fed would be a lot lower than perhaps what it is now because the market is perceiving that margins in the future because of a lower interest rate burden are gonna be thicker. This should really lift the share price of high debt companies. And that is 100% linked to the financial health of a company. In a previous video I mentioned Oclo. Now, Oclo don't make any money, but investors piling into the stock on the perception that they are gonna make money maybe 10 years down the line. I do not believe this to be the case, and I think that this is a prime example of a company that could collapse once investor sentiment turns, basically. Conversely, if a company is making good money, it is unlikely that they are gonna collapse anywhere near the same extent if the broader market does in fact turn down. That balance sheet will support them through the bad bad times, and it's likely that they have priced in the bad times already. So they sort of protected themselves. GoDaddy was one of my favorite stocks because back in 2022 they actually hedged all of their variable interest rate risk until 2027. So they were very well weathered when interest rates started increasing through 2022. Now with Oklo, you know, markets move on hype just as much as fundamentals. However, the fundamentals are likely to come back and bite them in the ass. Especially if that company is relatively dogshit. And so this is always something to pay attention to whenever you're seeing the latest stock go absolutely bananas. Is it actually making money? Well, if it's not currently making money and it's only expected to in the future, have some caution. I'm not saying don't go and buy it because these can be fantastic opportunities. However, understand what you're getting into. That is absolutely one of the paramount things I can say to you. What do we do? We use a strategy called the 1-4-3. 4, 10. It's very gimmicky sounding, but I want you to get it into your head so you have a foundational knowledge of how to approach what you're actually looking at when it comes to analyzing stocks. So one, US is the only place, the only country that we focus on. That is the single most important fact here. Don't go becoming a tourist over in Indonesian stocks or becoming a tourist in French stocks. It's not going to work. Momentum as a factor has been the number one reason as to why American investors have made so much money over the last 30 years. And this is linked into the 4. We use 4 moving averages to determine trend and also when momentum starts to pick up. And then we only look at companies that are over $10 billion in market cap. That part is paramount because linked to the balance sheet component, we are also focusing only on companies that have a quality balance sheet that are making money and also have been able to build up the legacy to become a $10 billion company. Now, it doesn't mean that some companies aren't completely dogshit and they have a $10 billion market cap. No. But then we filter out more by seeing, okay, do they have a positive price to earnings? This is the core foundation of where to start from analyzing whether a stock is right to get into. There are so many more things that go into that from a discretionary perspective and more quantitative elements to add in there. However, once you have that foundation down, you're probably well on your way to being able to create a portfolio that works for you. Just wanted to give a big shout out to our sponsor Tickmill. Now, if you don't know about Tickmill, they are one of the longest-running FX, CFD, and futures and options brokerages in the industry. They're run by two brothers, and they've been doing this for such a long time. And I tend to only work with people who I know are of good nature, good quality, and have a fantastic product. I've known about Tickmill for the last probably 10, 15 years when I was at TradingView, various brokerages, and they've always been around as one of the firms that have a fantastic reputation. Now they offer FX, futures, options, CFDs on over 600 different assets, and I think that is testament to the extent to which they want to cater towards traders who want to go a little bit varied across different asset classes. Now I'm predominantly US stocks focused. However, sometimes I still have a punt around in FX. I'm just not going to go and tell you guys to do it because I don't think it's necessary for every retail trader. However, we're all going to go and have a punt, so why not do it with a firm who is absolutely excellent and who will go above and beyond to fit you as a customer into their company? Click below to sign up with Tickmill if you want best-in-class Execution. Now, yeah, you've got an idea of how to pick stocks, but you want to avoid doing any of the mistakes we're going to look at right now because these mistakes are what causes stock pickers to lose money about 90% of the time. So we've got recency bias. Just buying last year's winners doesn't mean that you're going to make money this year. We've got overconcentration. Going all in on one hype stock could lead to ruin. What you might want to do there is a quarterly rebalance if you're looking over the longer term. If you don't have an exit plan, this is probably the main reason as to why people lose money, or at least round trip their entire winning position. They do not have systematic risk management set up based on volatility or even risk management whatsoever because they're not leveraged. They think they don't need it. That is insane bonkers. And I've had various conversations with people where I have said, just because you're not leveraged doesn't mean you shouldn't have your risk management set up. Another point is how the macro gets intertwined with markets. Macro doesn't matter about 90% of the time, but you have to understand when it does matter. The most recent Fed rate cut is probably one of the times where it has in fact mattered a lot because of how the labor market has been predicted to start turning. This is a key inflection point that is gonna drive valuation of stocks going forward. So you have to pay attention to that. Most other meetings, hmm, wouldn't say it's that important. Now when it comes to making a shorter term portfolio, I like to have a mix of things going on. I don't have all my eggs in one basket cuz that would be a bit stupid, but I do spread my risk, but enough concentration so I can benefit from short-term gain. How might you do this then? Well, you might want to diversify across the hot sectors currently. You're not just going to bet everything on AI because that's a bit mental. We want a mix of growth, which indicates higher risk but bigger upside, and stability as well. Dividend stocks, blue chips. I like to hedge out when I think the market is going to go against us for a week or two with buying McDonald's. Everyone wants McDonald's. It doesn't matter when it is. And during periods of growth decline, so when tech stocks might come off a little bit, McDonald's tends to do quite well. So that's a little tip there for you. That's It's a great way to smooth out your volatility of your portfolio whilst not actually selling anything down. So you might want to go like 70% growth but then 30% lower beta defensive plays. This is how you create that natural smoothness in the portfolio rather than being 100% in AI stocks, 100% in, you know, energy firms. That is bonkers. I, I can tell you for now that is absolutely insane. So for shorter-term time horizon, you can have a smaller basket, but just enough to spread your risk out over a couple of strong names. Now, in terms of time horizons, here's how I differentiate each stock holding in my portfolio. Over 6 to 12 months, when we're really looking to be rather more aggressive, I'm going to be looking mainly at earnings catalysts and what analysts are expecting for the next quarter. This translates into shorter-term momentum plays, but I will always have a view in mind of a year Plus anyway, this will also influence sector rotations as well. So right now I think we're going to move from a growth mindset down to a value mindset. This might only last for 1 to 3 months. However, it means that battered down companies and a perfect example of this, which is in a video from a couple of weeks ago, is Intel. And on that video I said they'd reach $30. They are now at $30. Go me, I'm good at this. And so taking that perspective in allows you to view the market in a different way when there might be a sector rotation. And this permits you to spot opportunities that others aren't. Over 1 to 3 years, I'm going to be looking at emerging leaders with rockstar CEOs in growing industries. Think perhaps the likes of Palantir. They are a fantastic example. They've got Peter Thiel at the wheel, and you might agree or disagree with what Palantir does. I don't care. I am an investor and I care about up and to the right. That is literally the only thing I care about. And so when we're focused on those 1 to 3 year timelines, you Yes, Palantir has a massively high price-to-earnings ratio. That's absolutely fine because we can manage our risk systematically on the downside to get ourselves out of the position. That is how you do it. You do not have price targets on any of these shorter-term stocks. Now, over 3 to 5 years, you want to be looking at perceived undervalued but fundamentally strong companies that need time since they are so hugely innovative that we're pricing what their shares might be years into the future. If we go back to Nvidia in 2020, for example, or Rolls-Royce in 2020, these are two perfect examples of exactly what I'm talking about here. So being able to see 5 years in the future around things that the world really, really will need is exactly how you proliferate from those broader and big megatrends. After I've sorted my time horizon strategy, I make sure to have a risk risk management process in place. The last thing you want is to let all hell break loose and be at the mercy of geopolitics. The number one thing I can say about risk management is to systemize it. This is where our Academy tends to seriously benefit most people, since most people don't know how to actually exit their positions to make money. And the number one thing I can say, and I've already alluded to it, is never have take profits or price targets. These are limiting your potential upside and will only induce FOMO once the market starts exceeding your price target. So that's what I'd do if I was starting over this year. But I want you to keep a few things in mind before you go and use this yourself. I mentioned above that there was a $100 trillion megatrend coming into the market between now and 2040. I'm, I'm going to let you in on a little secret here. I've made a basket for the biggest sector growth I have ever seen. And I'm going to teach you something. As I've already said, there's going to be $100 trillion spent on global infrastructure by 2040. This is likely to be the opportunity of a lifetime if you are positioned well. And I wrote about the infrastructure boom and how Caterpillar was best served to play that, and they still are. But let's go a little bit deeper. Look, instead of rewriting all of the reasons to be so bullish on firms that are going to benefit from infrastructure spending, I want to cut to the chase. How might we make a basket of stocks that is likely going to benefit from this massive megatrend? Well, I've done the hard graph for you. Enter the Fink Infrastructure Basket. Look, we're not going to get overly complex here and include a billion stocks. We're not accountants. They're adverse to risk and do not believe in diversifying too much. For the retail investor, we want gains, and we want gains that are above a benchmark. My benchmark is always the S&P 500. I'm nice and aggressive. So I've created a basket for you to look at. Now, I'm not suggesting you just go out and buy it. This isn't financial advice. This is just something for you to take away to perhaps learn from. But over the past 5 years, this basket has returned 235% with a beta of 1.45. Now, let me preface this by saying past performance isn't indicative of future results. Haha. But based on some simple data we can come to a reasonable conclusion about where the future is headed based off of this $100 trillion mega spend over the next 15 years. But before that, let's dig into the components. The first one is Caterpillar. They supply the big yellow diggers that you've probably seen, and they are the largest producer of construction and mining equipment globally. So they're going to be a direct beneficiary of infrastructure spending across roads, energy, and utilities. They have a massive order backlog and an unrivaled dealer service network that drives revenue visibility and resilience to their balance sheet. They also lead the charge in autonomous equipment and digital fleet management, boosting efficiency and modernizing construction sites. Basically, robot trucks are going to drive rocks around the world for you. That's amazing. Now, the second company in this basket is United Rentals. They are the world's biggest equipment rental company, which is essential for supporting large and small infrastructure projects. And they are flexible and asset light with their business model, and it thrives as contractors prefer renting to owning during demand surges. They got really strong cash flow, thick margins, and a nationwide presence in the US, which makes them directly indexed to construction volume cycles. So when construction's booming, URI, United Rentals, their share price also booms. Now, I don't know what accent to say this next one is, but Martin Marietta Materials— what a beautiful stock name. Now, they're a premier supplier of aggregates, crushed stone, concrete, and asphalt, the foundational materials for roads, bridges, and buildings, i.e., infrastructure. Now, their demand is extremely sensitive to public works and government infrastructure outlays, with volumes set to surge on stimulus spending. They've got an extensive geographic footprint, and strategic quarry locations provide competitive advantage and pricing power. Nucor Corporation is another beauty that we're including in this basket. They're a leading US steel manufacturer supplying beams, rebar, plate steel for new construction and repairs, and their efficient mini mill model allows for rapid scaling and cost advantages as infrastructure demand spikes. Now, they're a key supplier across wind energy, skyscrapers, bridges, and manufacturing plants, including AI data centers. Another massive trend to go alongside the $100 trillion infrastructure spend that we're talking about. Emerson Electric is another pick in this basket. They do industrial automation and process control, powering efficient connected infrastructure facilities, provide hardware and software for smart cities, energy grids, and advanced manufacturing. And they're well placed to benefit as projects shift towards digitalization, sustainability, and operational intelligence. You can construct this basket in TradingView yourself with the following formula, which is market cap weighted. That is so important. What you do is you take the ticker and then you multiply it by the market cap weight. So URI times 0.1216 plus NUE times 0.0514 plus CAT times 0.5514 plus ROC times 0.0784 plus EMR times 0.1. $0.0973. That was a mouthful. But always remember, if you're making a basket, you have to find out its market cap so that you can construct the right position sizes to follow the flow of capital. I.e., you will want to be overweight probably the largest stock and then position accordingly elsewhere, rebalancing quarterly or semi-annually just to maintain your risk management. Now, why do we focus on US companies doing things in the US? Because the US has already committed $1.2 trillion on infrastructure spending this year. There's a nice analogy for the US actually that I like in this remit, and how to think of them in terms of why do we always go to the US for our investing conclusion. It's this: I'm going to tell you a story from the Cold War. In the darkest days of the Cold War, American military analysts huddled over grainy satellite images and intercepted technical documents from deep inside the Soviet Union. Among these, they found what appeared be the blueprints for a revolutionary new fighter jet, a sleek needle-nosed machine with gigantic engine intakes and wings that seemed impossibly large for supersonic flight. The documents, hurriedly translated by intelligence officers, spoke of performance parameters never seen before— Mach 3 flight, radical maneuverability, and targeting systems allegedly capable of burning through enemy jamming from a half-continent away. Pentagon officials dubbed the project Red Hawk, and urgent memos declared it a potential strategic game changer. Fearful of falling behind, the US accelerated its own FX program, pouring billions into a new fighter designed not just to match but to surpass the Russian threat. Engineers at Lockheed and McDonnell Douglas called the project Skyquake. The resulting jet was beast bigger than anything before, with powerful engines, massive wings, state-of-the-art radar, and enough electronic gadgetry to make a battleship jealous. Early test flights broke records, but the Air Force quickly noticed how the designers had engineered with the foreign schematic's absurd requirements. Altitude ceilings no pilot would ever reach, fuel tanks so large the plane could cross the Pacific nonstop, and radar so powerful it needed its own generator. The panic reached fever pitch when in 1976 a Soviet pilot named Viktor Belenko stole one of these mysterious jets, dubbed the MiG-25 Foxbat, and landed it in Japan. US engineers were ecstatic. Here at last was the real enemy aircraft, ready for dissection. They stripped the plane, analyzed every bolt, and to their shock discovered the truth. The Foxbat was not a dogfighting demon. It was essentially a crude high-speed interceptor designed to race after American bombers, not outfight agile jets. Its maneuverability was limited, its radar clumsy, and much of its electronic suite was decades behind the Western tech. The Soviet superplane was more brute force than brilliance. Back at home, the US engineers looked at the Skyquake, a fighter jet that was now far more advanced and expensive than necessary. The billions spent had produced an overpowered marvel, but the threat it was designed to defeat was never real. Still, lessons had been learned. Intelligence could be dangerously misleading, but sometimes the fear it inspired yielded technological leaps that would dominate the skies for years to come. And so Skyquake became both cautionary tale and symbol of the West's determination, born not from enemy mastery but from a phantom schematic that turned out to be only smoke and mirrors. And Cold War paranoia. That is an unreal story, but this is what the US does. Trump is effectively fighting a Cold War with China on making America overpowered. It's game theory. And, and this is why we focus on the US, and specifically in this REIT, US Infrastructure. Capital flows matter way more than finding the best pick, and in this case, capital flows from the most powerful entity in the world is driving this basket— the US government. So we have gone through the different ways in which you can construct a portfolio— short, mid, and long term— and I've just provided you with a basket of stocks that is likely to benefit from a seriously long-term megatrend. And I want your opinion. Do you think this is a good idea, or do you think it's absolute nonsense? Drop a comment below and make sure that you like and subscribe to the Fink YouTube.
