David Belle lays out a three-number trading system using four moving averages to find trending stocks, ditching the dozens of indicators most traders pile on. He walks through Robinhood, Barrick Mining, and Tesla to show how it works: buy profitable companies in uptrends, hold them, exit by the rules.
Ah, most traders and investors online will tell you they've got some secret system. I, on the other hand, trade like a complete retard. I don't have 10-screen setup. I don't spend my time obsessing over 50 indicators or candlestick pattern because that is nonsense. All I use is 3 numbers and 4 indicators, and this is based off a CTA method, Commodity Trading Advisor method, which has traditionally been used pretty much only in commodities, you know, gold, coffee, soybeans, blah blah blah blah blah. And they've traded it long and short, whereas I only like to buy stuff and then sell it when I need to based on systemized risk management rules. And yet somehow it still works. I don't really know how, but I mean, I do know how because I've modeled it out. However, I'm not guaranteeing it will just work for you. I can show you how to use it yourself. It involves following this checklist right here, but you need to understand every single part. So if you skip through it, it won't make any sense and it won't work and you'll fuck everything up. So what do we do? We look at one country, the United States of America. We look at 4 moving averages. We look at the 20 daily moving average, we look at the 50 daily moving average, we look at the 100 daily moving average, and we look at the 200 daily moving average. And then we have to pick the right trending stocks. And the right trending stocks are companies that are actually making money because they can return money to their shareholders, which drives US growth because corporate profits are enabling more people to be hired, more investment to occur, and enables US growth to be revised from 3.2% to 3.8%, which This is why we only invest in the US. So there's a really good fundamental backing as to why we do all of these things. It's called risk premium harvesting. We're not trying to find inefficiencies and price action nonsense, which doesn't work because it's all being arbitraged away by amazing high-frequency trading firms. We are just looking at the simple factors of the market, which traditionally have always worked and is the reason why the stock market even exists in the first place, because people want to retain profits from the companies that they invest in. So naturally, companies that are making the most profits are going to drive a stock market higher. It's why like 8 companies control 40% of the S&P 500's price movement. Genuinely mental. Look it up. Anyway, now that you know what my idiotic method of trading is, let's look at some examples. So in the Think Model portfolio, we got long Robinhood back in February 2024 and added and took away because we run systematic risk management across our portfolio, um, and then added again. We That's how the way it works. But we got long them in February 2024, and it's based off of this method. Now, there is some discretionary elements that matter as well, but we saw that the rising retail participation in trading and also what Robinhood were doing across global markets, not just the US, was going to lead to this company becoming a massive momentum factor driven stock. And that's exactly what happened. It's gone up by an astronomical amount over the past 18 months or so, give or take a month or two. Barrick Mining, another company just from this summer that we got long because we saw copper absolutely going fucking mental out of China one day. And the quantitative sort of metrics that we use by looking at moving averages and things like that suggested that this was going to go on a super run because it was trading near its 52-week high as well. Now this gives extra fuel because if a company's trading near its 52-week high, it means it's been doing something good for it to run back up there. And so this acts as a complete rocket booster to the share price. But interestingly, we didn't actually get long it because of the gold run. No, it was copper. The gold run actually sort of just gave it some more juice from July, August onwards. And back during tariff mania, right at the bottom, we got long Tesla because we saw it breaking above those quantitative metrics again. And naturally with Tesla, you have to be long them if you do believe in the 10-year AI race. Basically, if you look at Elon, he's got xAI, he's got Tesla, he's got Neuralink, he's got The Boring Company, he's got Starlink, he's got all of these companies that are going to be related to AI and communications. And when you put them together with his mental concept concept of going to Mars and colonizing it. AI works for him across this whole entire ecosystem. xAI to run governance and intelligence, FSD to move big rocks around there. You've got Neuralink to maybe control, I don't know, robots or humans or some shit. It doesn't matter, but he is the ultimate person to be following if you are long the AI revolution. So that is my strategy that even a donkey could use in the markets because it's fucking simple and follows some very, very simple concepts of how the market works. How the market works is more important than the actual metrics used. And this is what I'm trying to change minds on. It's why I'm against price action and obsessing over candlestick patterns and all of this stuff, purely because that relies on believing that you have some special inefficiency understanding when you don't. It's pure luck and pure randomness. When— if you focus on risk premia and what risk premia is, which is basically doing things other people don't want to do that you're going to get compensated for, then you will have more success. Holding a trend, for instance, is something most people don't want to do, and so you will get compensated if you hold the trend in good companies, which is what we do. Anyway, if you want to see more on that, then click this video here somewhere. And thanks a lot for watching this one.
