A World Divided: How Geopolitical Fractures Will Reshape Global Order in 2026!

Hello everyone and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. I'm your host, Dr. Oualaalou, excited to be with you as always. We got only 3 more days, actually, what, 3 more days or 2 more days or 3 for the end of the year. So, uh, I'm gonna post something for the community regarding New Year's, the celebration for New Year's and so forth. So anyway, very, very excited to be with you. I, uh, what I'm going to be sharing with you in this particular, uh, live stream here is my own, uh, assessment, a comprehensive analysis about the outlook, the geopolitical outlook for 2026. So I'm going to be touching on basically the globe, from the Arctic to Africa to Southeast Asia to South China Sea to Latin America, Europe, you name it. Uh, this is what I'm going to be providing you, my own insights about it And the reason I wanted to do it this way, of course, predictions are not an easy thing to do. But you just, if you base your assessments, your analysis, your predictions based on historical facts, based on what's the trends that's been taking place on the, on the ground for the past year, then you will be able to come up with some ideas as to where things are headed. So, but before I'll do this, let me quickly say hi to our wonderful community. As always, uh, Dejus, good to see you. Liang, as always. John Dutchman, good to see you. YYTT, good to see you. Say It Like It Is, as always, good to see you here. Willie Holman, Farandolape, Truth Seeker, uh, Derejumiru, good to see you here. Uh, Loma. Good to see you, Athin Wu. You made it. Good, good. Sing Brewery, good to see you as always. Uh, Soccer 088, good to see you. Hang in, G, good to see you, and Happy New Year to you too as well. Uh, okay, uh, Famida, good to see you here. Uh, Riz Khan, salaam from UK. Good to have you join us here, Riz. Taiwan Steel, as always. Dave H, Uh, okay. And who is Phil? As always, good to see you here. So let me, uh, do some, uh, housekeeping items. I'll do headlines for you, then I'll dive in into my analysis about the geopolitical and security outlook for 2026. So first of all, I wanted to let you know, uh, thank you, by the way, for your kind wishes for speedy recovery for Carl Zah. So I'm gonna text him personally. I will communicate privately here. And let him know that the community wishes him a speedy recovery. So that was so kind of you guys to put all those comments. I read them, by the way. I knew something was off. Carl is always on time, so I'm going to let him know. So also remember to join me tomorrow for my conversation with Jayant Bhandari, given the disturbing images coming out of India. Basically, it's an assault on Christianity, and this has nothing to do with defending Christianity, whatever. It's what's right. So I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm perplexed. I am confused by this massive, uh, assault on, on Christians in India, which to me, the government in India, Modi that is, probably is the one facilitating this assault on the destruction of the Christmas decorations and, and so forth. It's very disturbing, and I have a lot of clips I'm gonna be sharing with you tomorrow, so make sure to join me tomorrow at 7, uh, 7 PM. I'm gonna be doing this. I am also going to do a special video just for you about India, what's going on that between Saudi Arabia and India, and how many being kicked out of— 11,000 Indians been kicked out of Saudi Arabia, you know, spying for Israel, maybe part of it, maybe not. So I'm gonna be sharing with you my, uh, my, uh, my, uh, assessments, uh, and I'm waiting for some confirmation of some information before I'll do so. So, all right, let's do headlines here. Uh, the first headline I'm gonna share with you has to do with the hacking of the phone of the chief of staff of the Israeli prime minister. Is this gentleman on the right here, you know, his name is, uh, is, uh, what's his name? His name is, uh, Breverman. Breverman. So what happened? The group of hackers known as the Hanzalah, yeah, they breached the phone of Netanyahu's chief of staff. So what they end up doing yesterday, which by the way I confirmed it, what they end up doing yesterday is they published information and documents that they said were obtained from hacking the phone of Breverman, whose nickname, by the way, is Netanyahu's keeper of secrets. So he's also the director of the office of the Israeli prime minister, and he who is wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes. So, so you can only imagine the type of information that was on that particular phone. So it's, it's interesting dynamics. So Second headline has to do with Israel once again and Iran this time around. So here's the thing, which by the way, I will do an analysis for you at the beginning of the year. I'm going to touch on it in this live stream regarding the Middle East, but I'm leaving this separately because I have information I just was made aware of, and I am going to be sharing that with you in a, in a, in a separate video. So here is what happened. There are now, uh, uh, some analysts from the region, and specifically I look at for one particular, uh, senior researcher in Al Jazeera itself. Her name is Dr. Fatima Al-Samari. So, and I read out on her background, academic background, and she is qualified to sort of really assess in this because she specializes on Iranian affairs. That's what made me, uh, really, really caught my attention, her assessment. So basically, most of the analysts, uh, concur, and I'm one of those that agree with this, that I predict this renewal clashes, uh, or even an outbreak of new military war between Iran and Israel. So, and this is where I see this scenario is most likely will take place. Why? Given the previous failure of the Israeli attacks, uh, on, on, on Israel to achieve— on Iran, I'm sorry— to achieve the strategic goals. So Israel might be thinking in terms, oh, we can do it this time around. However, what Iran has just did is that they prepared over 2,000 missiles, and I know this for fact, 2,000 missiles that been prepared just for this scenario. So This is what I'm gonna do, a special video just for you, for the community, about this moving forward. Uh, third headline has to do with the Himalayas. What's going on in Himalayan mountains? You might, you might be surprised. And what's going on is that in an anticipation, here is what India is saying: oh, we anticipate a war or clash with China. You all see where this is going. So this is why India now is ramping up infrastructure projects in the Himalayas. So, and this was quoted inside here in the United States through the intelligence community, that India is accelerating its military infrastructure projects in the Himalayas. You know, I am here to tell you this has nothing to do with China. It has to do with the foreign minister of Bhutan, who's been received right here in the— in, in Washington. It also has to do with what's taking place in Bangladesh after the two individuals who killed a student in Bangladesh fled to India. So what India is doing is ramping up this, not because of China, is ramping up this because it's scared, it's concerned that Bhutan might end up cutting a deal with the Americans to a degree And Bangladeshi might end up cutting a deal with Pakistan. So India will end up holding the end of the stick. But what India wanted to sell this to the Indian people is, oh, we're preparing for a potential clash with China. Has nothing to do with that because they're saying, oh, this is about the future of the confrontation with China along the disputed border, you know. I've always told you guys, you never trust India. If they were honest about really wanted to work with China, they would have sat down and resolved the border issue. They are not going to do this, mark my word on it, because they don't want to. So, and the last one pertaining to this one here has to do with Bangladesh. Of course, following the Sheikh Hasina footsteps, two men accused of killing a prominent Bangladeshi activists fled to India. So India is giving them sanctuary. Basically, India is giving sanctuary to killers in Bangladesh. And now with the Hindu fanatics, what they doing, you can just see why the rest of the world is fed up with India as we speak. So what happened? Bangladeshi police announced on Sunday, yesterday that the two suspected of in the killing of prominent student leader, his name is Sharif Usman Hadi, had fled to India, which basically the Indian intelligence community, intelligence services have provided the escape for them. So it tells you the story right there. And, and I'm gonna be detailing this more when I'll talk on Wednesday about what's going on between Saudi Arabia and India for being— for kicking out all 11,000 Indian workers who are not workers, by the way. Some of them been involved, allegedly involved in spying on behalf of Israel. So will I be surprised? No. Do I say it 100%? No, because I am still waiting for a confirmation. But I am not surprised after what happened in 2023. You all remember what happened in Qatar when Indian officers were spying on behalf of Israel. Why? Because Qatar had cut, uh, signed an agreement with an Italian company to build a submarine. So it was the Indian officers working in part of the embassy they were spying on behalf of. Maybe the Saudis got a tip about this spying ring that's going on Saudi Arabia., by the Indians. I don't know. It's alleged for now, and I am waiting for the confirmation, and I will do the video for you on Wednesday. So make sure to tune in for that. All right, let's talk about where the world is headed in 2026. So, and once again, this is based on my own comprehensive, uh, assessments, my own analysis. Of course, predictions are hard to come about. But again, I am basing this on a historical trend, on the— on what's going— what's been going on for the last year, for the past year, for the current year, that is. And I have my own way of finding out information for me to provide you an assessment. So what I decide to do in this, provide you the overall from the get-go, then I'll detail on each region as I move forward. So basically, what you are going to be looking forward to in 2023, you'll be looking at it towards a world that is more fragmented, you know, more competitive, by the way. And make no mistake about it, there is also unstable order. So, and why is this? Why am I saying this? Or why did I reach this particular conclusion for this one here? It's because of where I see the trajectories are going. So, so the way we're gonna do this is I'm gonna break down from 3 elements: geopolitics, economics, and security. Then I'll do my conclusion. Make sure you stay with me till the end for this because some of you might say, well, what this has to do with my well-being, Dr. O? It does a lot. So it's like what Americans are saying right now, oh, Mr. Trump has promised us a check because we got so much money from tariffs. Where is it? It's just a lie. So that's what I'm saying, for you to understand what lies ahead. So, so here's what we're looking at towards— we're looking at it towards a strategic multipolarity, and that one that will be heightened with a great power competition. So basically, the world as we see it now— and I have some pictures for you, some maps I'm gonna be sharing with you as I go along here. Basically, what you're looking at, you're looking at the world moving away from the post-Cold War, US-dominated system towards genuine multipolarity, except that without the stabilizing mechanisms that existed during the Cold War. So, and I'm not, you know, some will attribute it to the US, some will not. Suffice it to say, within this strategic multipolarity that we are already moving forward towards in— and it's going to take place or take foothold in 2026. You'll be looking at one specific aspect of this, and that aspect is the US-China relations, because it will remain fundamentally competitive despite diplomatic summits, of course, with competition extending into space, into AI, into semiconductor, into critical minerals. There is the crucial aspect. And the other part of this particular, uh, uh, theme here is that all this happening while Europe pivots towards much greater strategic autonomy. But even with that, I don't— I wanted to share this with you, but I don't see it happening 100%. It's on the papers. That's it. Europe, greater strategic autonomy? No, it will be just on paper. It's in action and deeds that you find out. The other aspect has to do with the rearmament. And essentially now, because what Europe is looking at is hedging against both the American unpredictability and of course thinking about this Russian aggression, which is an made-up anyway justification. Then you move into the economic fragmentation, and this is what I call the geoeconomics. That's, that's, that's to me is as clear as daylight. Basically, you're looking at a trade war being weaponized. This is what I meant by what's in it for you, because you have to understand where this is going economically that's going to impact your pockets. So, so rather than having an integrated, for example, supply chain, what we're going to be seeing moving into 2026 is a retreat into regional blocs. So, and of course, with the trusted suppliers network. This brings me back to something I said about 8 months ago, and I remember my memory is not failing me yet. I'm not that old yet, so. Is that what I said back then? And I said, Mike, my word, that the new multipolar order is going to be managed by economic blocs. That's what I'm referring to here. So then you look at the tariffs, you look at the export control, you look at economic coercion, which all this will become standard tools of statecraft. Some states will use them more than others, like the United States, versus, let's say, what other countries that matters in the world? You got only China, basically Russia to a degree, and that's about it. So, so what this will mean is that they will mean a slower global growth, but at the same time with a higher cost for businesses navigating these multi-supply chains. Look, look what's going on in, in, in Asia right now. You'll get the picture. And this is where you're going to see countries sort of increasingly prioritizing their economic security over economic efficiency. That's the way I see it. The other aspects you're looking at is regional conflict, because we're going to move in towards persistent regional conflict without resolution. That's the only way I see it. And I give you a quick examples. I have pictures here, uh, uh, for you. This is, uh, Ukraine. Look at it, by the way, it's, it's destroyed. Ukraine is done for. Uh, it's just what you hear now, it's just to keep the narrative alive. But basically we're looking at, we're looking at Ukraine, Gaza, the Taiwan Strait, of course, with the tensions that's going on with especially now the US pushing a billion plus dollar in weapons for, for Taiwan. You can see what's, what's coming. Then you have various African conflicts show no signs of near-term sort of resolution. And this, by the way, those aren't isolated incidents. No, no, no, no, no, no. It reflects the deeper structural tensions that exist within the order, the global order, that is, or the system, which, by the way, it won't be quickly resolved. You know, look at the Ukraine-Russia. Conflict. You remember what Trump said? Oh, I'm gonna resolve it as soon as I get a phone call. Yeah, good luck. So then with this, you look at the Middle East, for example, which faces potential cycles— I didn't say cycle— cycles of escalation and de-escalations going back and forth. You just heard what happened in Syria yesterday, the armed clashes that, that took place in Tartus and Latakia. Which means what? Syria is not stable. So, so, and this, in my opinion, this, this changes in Taiwan, in Gaza, in Ukraine, Africa, and so forth. This, in my, in my opinion, creates a world of chronic instability. So where, why is this important? Because it will be important for you as an investor, for you as a consumer, for you as an analyst, for for you as a, what, a businessman, what have you. So, or for you as a planner also, because you're gonna be operating now within a persistent uncertainty. That is where the difference is going to be. So then you have the accelerating arms race. Yeah, and militarization, because it's moving forward into that direction. Look no further than what Japan did, its defense budget. Look what Germany did, defense spending moved up, you know. So the defense spending is surging globally. The other countries, the likes of China, the likes of Russia, they're gonna have to do it for defense purposes. So particularly what we're looking at in Europe, you're looking at Asia, and of course the US. So, and with this, and I have a map here for you With this brings me to the Arctic, because the Arctic is becoming militarized. You know, there is no, no mistake about it. And this is where you have also space is becoming a domain of strategic competition. And that in this, in my opinion, reflects a genuine fear among nations who can afford to go to space and so forth about their security future. And this will pave the way for policymakers in every country, so for them to, to think in terms of the upcoming competitive environment, so which will intensify rather than improve. So, and of course, with 2026, with what we saw, still seeing in 2025, you're gonna be seeing some sort of political fragmentation that will take place. Of course, some will say, well, it's only Africa that we're gonna focus on this. No, not necessarily. Yeah, Africa has experienced a wave of coups recently, but some of them for good reason. Look where Burkina Faso is right now. Look where the Sahel region is right now, economically speaking. And they are moving towards more independence and autonomy. Of course, some Western think tanks gonna be saying, well, wait a minute, Dr. O, this is about democratic backsliding. No. What does democracy— what did democracy do for those people? Did democracy put food on their table? No. No, let's be realistic. So, and that is part of this. The one thing that I am certain of, it's what we are looking at, we'll be looking into moving forward is the political polarization because that one is sort of impacting and affecting everything from brand loyalty of whatever to regulatory policy. And this is where, when I refer to domestic instability, not in one particular country, but rather in the region, within countries compounded international instability. So it's all intertwined. And that in itself, in my opinion, it creates unpredictability. This is where the policy shift comes in, is going to be with each election coming up. Look what's going on in Europe right now, because we're already seeing this. This is part of it. And that leads us to talk about the weakened international institutions and the great power alignment. Because you're going to see change with the US now, of course, reducing its aid to Africa. Why? Because US realized that it's not wanted in Africa. Nobody wants to deal with the Americans in Africa, or the rest of the world for that matter, given what we're doing— weaponizing the dollar, imposing sanctions on right or left, you know, taking over oil, uh, oil cargoes. That's piracy, basically. So, and this is why you see, and even the US itself is stepping from certain multilateral commitments, not because he wants to, it's because he's violating the law. You look at what we've done with the GCPUA, for example, which happened back then, but it's still the impact of it. And what you're going to be looking at other countries learning from this is is by pursuing their own nationalistic policies. So the architect, the institutional architecture, the international one that you and I, we were thinking of the managing the world and so forth, the one that manages global affairs is sort of, is waning, is going down, is fraying. There is no more, no more because countries now, more and more are choosing which direction we want to go. Doesn't have to be the US. Like I said one time, the world is going to move on with or without the United States. And this is why you're going to be seeing some sort of a power play on multiple powers against each other, because that's usually the new alignments that you're going to be seeing. So, and, and that's just part of how it is. And this leads me to talk about— I want to provide you in general terms. So I'm going to get into the detail of the geopolitical outlook, the security outlook, the economic outlook for the regional areas, Middle East, Africa, Arctic, Asia, and Latin America. Then I'll conclude with my conclusion. So we'll start with the geopolitical outlook, especially when it comes down to US-China relations. Because if there is anything that matters in the world on a global stage, is this relationship. So of course, what we have in here, we have in that, you know, the, the competition will, will continue, but it's going to be contained, in my opinion, from both sides. It's not that one will contain the other because they can't. The US I argued this when I was in Washington, DC, when the word containment started to come up, and I was like, what are you guys talking about? Containing China will be a useless tactics because the economy of China is not the same as it was for the Soviet Union. Conditions on the global geopolitical landscape have changed. So, and this is why the way I see it moving forward into 2020 6 is gonna be some sort of steadier the relationship between China and the US. So, however, you're gonna have to think in terms that instability in this relationship is rooted not in accommodations, by the way, but rather in a shared recognition of each side of the US and China each side's capacity and capability to inflict significant economic harm on the other. We looked at— we already went through it with the tariffs that Mr. Trump imposed on China, only to realize and find out that his ill-conceived policies has backfired. China wasn't about to cave in. What China end up doing is pushing back. Is because it was miscalculated strategy in Washington. That's the way I see it. So both countries, even though they kind of agreed now to reciprocal visits in 2026— Mr. Trump's gonna go in, uh, to China, to my knowledge, in April. Uh, President Xi is going to come over to the U.S. No date has been specified yet. So, but at least with something like this, we'll provide some sort of opportunity for a wider range in discussions and maybe a reset of the relationship. But at the same time, do you think the Chinese gonna trust the Americans what they say? We can't be trusted. We, the government, because we, when you lose your credibility, it's hard to, especially when you're dealing with Asia. To those who know and familiar with the culture in Asia, trust is a big deal. You break that trust, ah, I don't know how you can recover from that. So, so the underlying one thing I need you to understand, especially for my viewers who are involved in business, one thing you need to understand is that the underlying intentions will remain. So, but what you're gonna see even more is the competition in the artificial intelligence sectors, in the semiconductors, in in the rare earth critical minerals, in the biotechnology. Because China has an edge on this, and this will define the strategic competition. So because both sides, China and the US, will deploy some sort of policy tools. The US will do it. The US already did it, but China reciprocated. We're talking about export control. And tariffs, of course. So the two countries' perceptions converge that the other represents a direct strategic risk. So what's going to become is that the competition will become the default state. So cooperation is going to be limited to a degree. Uh, there's going to be two certain essential areas. That's about it. So then you have the old continent, Europe. Think I have a map. I put maps of countries here, but I don't know where did I put it. Not here. Anyway, Europe, old continent. Europe faces challenges from shifting global order and internal political divisions, which by the way affecting the national security and economic competitiveness within the old continent. So you all remember, and I did video for you about what's going on with the farmers, and that's usually your hint as to what lies ahead moving into 2026. So, and of course, this gives you an idea of where, uh, Europe is headed. So the idea is What made it even worse for Europe is what the, the US new national strategic, national security strategy. And that in itself, to those who had a chance to read it, and I posted the link for you last time I did the, the video about it. So in my opinion, the content of this US national security strategy has widened now the gap between Washington and Brussels. So, and this is why France went ahead and called it, and I put in quote here, extremely brutal clarification, in quote. Well, duh, you're the one depending on the America. You couldn't stand on your feet. This is why to those who argue Europe might end up standing on its feet, it's on paper. When Europe says we're seeking autonomy, It's on the papers, on papers only. So, so, and when, when France said this, that is, is extremely brutal clarifications, you know what the Germans said? The Germans said, oh, this is unacceptable. You know, it's, it's laughable in a sense that even Germany has no sovereignty, in my opinion, with its, uh, law enforcement now acting like a police state for the disturbing images coming out of Germany, how they're treating protesters in support of Palestine. You know, Germany, yeah, is becoming a police state. So basically for the old continent, 2026 is shaping up to be a potential strategic turning point for the transatlantic or the Euro-Atlantic security. Yeah, but at the same time, Europe understands that they're going to need a much deeper coordination. And at the same time, the hindrance to that is the European Union. Dissolve the European Union and let every country decide for its own strategic trajectory or strategic interest and destiny. So at the same time, because Europe as a collective, uh, uh, bloc, uh, even if they're saying we are going to accelerate investments in critical capabilities. They can't because the cost of energy. So, and when they're talking about this adaptation to defense doctrines, we're going to defeat the Russians and all, all this is nothing but hypes. Yeah, Europe, we need to urgently build its military capabilities because they're exposed. Even NATO itself is exposed. And the only way to achieve that is by allowing each country to pursue its own. Get rid of the EU and dissolve NATO. And this is why you're going to be seeing in 2026 the sustained conflict in the old continent, you know, because I don't see the political consensus achieving that. While speaking of Europe, it behooves us to touch briefly on Ukraine, what's going on in Ukraine. How do we see it moving forward? The war is expected to continue because the Russians have no incentive to stop. Why? Because they're winning. Simple as that. And the Russians, I don't see them backing down from their demand. If only NATO agreed to the security demand that the Russians provided back in 2022, we won't be where we are today. But no, both the elites in Europe and the elites in the US are pushing for more war. This is why I'm seeing 2026, the war is going to continue with no near-term resolutions, apparently, despite now the peace proposals by the US, whatever. But no, those are just— till they meet the Russians' demand. And the Russians' demands are specific. I'm not going to get into the detail of it. I'm just providing you the overall assessments. The economic outlook moving forward is be on the lookout for a modest global growth with the regional diversions. That's how I see it when it comes down to the rest of the world moving forward. That one has to do with, uh, sort of— you're gonna see some think tanks releasing their assessments that Oh, the global economy is resilient and so forth, you know, and the businesses will maintain in there some sort of a cycling systems cruising speed at about 3%, give or take. But when you look at Europe, about 1.1, between 1.1 and 1.2% growth, the US 1.7%. %, and Asia with 4.5%. It tells you right there where the trajectory is headed. So the Eurozone, for their GDP, of course they're gonna have— lie to you by saying, oh, they're gonna be forecasting a growth of 1.2% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027. I'm, I'm— to me, this estimation, it's on a higher end. As a matter of fact, I will go to about 0.8 to 0.9%. That's it. One thing that you're gonna see in Europe, for my viewers in Europe, is that these services remains— is gonna remain the main driver while manufacturing is getting— is gonna get even weaker. So, and of course, are you gonna trust what the US gonna do? Meaning the Europeans should not be surprised that if they are slapped with more tariffs. So, so the largest contribution, in my opinion, to growth is expected from higher consumer spending. But when you look at on the other side of the argument, the labor market, yeah, that's, that's to me what I see it, uh, because there is one specific issue is going on in Europe as we speak. Which, by the way, you don't hear much about it. And you know what it is? Is the brain drain in Europe. Young talents in Europe are seeking opportunities outside the continent as we speak. You have a loss of competitiveness. So, so this is why European companies cannot keep up with what's going on with the Asian tech giants, the US to a degree. You have the political and social decline, and the European Union is more focused on ideological debate than on a real growth strategies. That's why I don't see it moving forward, because the other argument I can make is that you're gonna have to consider 2026 and consider also the US and tariffs. This is where that geo-economic aspects comes in because it's going to play a key role in the trajectory of where things are going. Geo, geopolitics and economics together. So, so, and this where you're going to see trade becoming an instrument of political objectives. So, and that, in my opinion, is going to sort of makes us see 2026 sort of shaping the new trade relationship between the US and China, not Europe, because that's what's going to define the global economy moving forward. The other aspect has to do with the fiscal, fiscal challenges, monetary aspects of it. So Uh, the way I see it moving based on the readings that I've done and so forth, you're looking at a higher steady-state borrowing rate which are expected to even last longer. It could go even beyond 2026. So, and this where you're gonna see the post-war alliances and defense spending amplifying the risks for sovereign debt sustainability. The bottom line, some countries like the US will do more printing, some other countries in Europe will do more borrowing. So, and this has to do also with the trade and the supply chain, especially when you look at the North American market operating environments, is going to be remaining volatile here. Why? Because you have the upcoming US-Canada-Mexico trade agreement, which is due for review. What do you think is going to happen when you look at country, uh, economies or industries are already trying to diversify manufacturing in a way, and you look at what Mexico just did by trying to impose sanctions on China, which was a mistake in my opinion. But of course a mistake, but also you can trust I know that the Mexicans were pressured by the US to agree to that. This is why they went ahead and imposed sanctions on China. But Mexico is going to end up holding the end of the stick and companies will have to think about diversifying. All right, let me move to the next one. Let me play this clip here. Liking this video so far? Don't just be a watcher. Go ahead and hit the like, share, and subscribe button, and don't forget to tap the bell so you will not miss any of my videos or live streams. This way, you will be supporting a channel that stands for the truth and objective reporting. The choice is yours. Thanks for your support. Now let's talk about Security Outlook. Economic sovereignty, you know, of course driven by security. And that's what's going to be driving the policies of many countries. So basically what you're going to be looking at in 2026, and again, this is my own assessment, there are certain things— predictions are very hard. I want to just put this on the record, you know. I don't see the future, you know, I can't anyway, and I wouldn't want to anyway. Governments will double down, in my opinion, on economic security. So why? Because they're going to be trying some sort of seeing the balancing of regional economic integration. And they're going to— what they're going to try to do is they're going to try to see the economic dimensions and try to integrate it into the national security. And for a reason, because the multipolarity, the world is changing. And that's going to impact the operations, that's going to impact the supply chains, which, by the way, they're going to remain functional areas more impacted. There's the most that's going to be impacted by geopolitics, in my opinion. The other aspects within the security, and doesn't have to do just with military dimensions, it has to do with the strategic technology competition. That's where I see also the depth of competition is going to be. So it's going to be, in my opinion, this strategic technology competition. The competition in itself is going to expand it from traditional ground-based areas to a digital and even out of space. And that's how I see 2026 is going to sort of witness some sort of an acceleration. I already seen the signs for it, especially with China's launching of satellites, the navigation systems, the even militarization of space technology. I'm not surprised at that, but that gives me an idea of where this is going. And this is why AI is going to play a— it's going to be the major role in— into— because that's going to become the deciding factors of of how to win wars moving forward. No more that old-fashioned type of wars. We're done with that era. And this paves the way into the defense investment surge that we're going to be witnessing. So, so the first thing that comes to mind is Europe, even though I believe for Europe it's just on papers. Europe saying we're going to prioritize defense spending increases. Yeah, on the papers, those countries cannot afford to go to 5-6% in their— of their defense budget. So it's because how are they going to do that? They're going to have to take money from some other social programs. Sustainable finance, that is. When you move that to strategic, uh, independence finance, that's going to become a problem. So, and this is why you're having right now Europeans trying to issue some sort of defense bonds and moving towards this so-called greater strategic autonomy. I, I'm, I won't buy it, but I will share it with you for you to reach your own conclusion on that. So, because the way you look at it is you look at what's going on on the ground, the movements, the polarizations that exist within Europe, within the political spectrum inside Europe. So you look at what Eastern Europe wants to do, you look at what France now, the shutdown of companies in Germany, the farmers in Brussels and Italy and France and so forth. All this should give you an idea of where this is moving forward. So, and within this security apparatus, I thought it will make more sense if I provide you by the regions. So I'll talk about Asia Pacific first, then I'll move into other regional countries. So let's start with Asia Pacific region. And I think I have a map. Yes, I do. So I'm going to be sharing map while I'm doing, uh, or providing you my own assessments on this. So East Asia, right there, you're going to think of Taiwan Strait tensions and of course Japan strategic dilemma, because Japan end up shooting itself in the foot with the statements of its, uh, I don't know what, I don't know, she, she just didn't think through, or whoever was advising her Sannei Takahashi, whoever was advising her. As a matter of fact, I am waiting on a confirmation on a specific— what's the word? Not a topic. It's a specific— not a policy. It's a travel for this particular prime minister that is going to be very, very, very provocative to the Chinese once again. So, and I'm waiting for a confirmation. Once I get the confirmation, I'm gonna talk to you about it. And to me, if she does that, that will be the nail on a coffin regarding the Japanese-Chinese relations. She's just not thinking straight. But again, Japan has no sovereignty. I'm not the only one saying this. You're looking at Japanese members of the parliament are saying that. So, so I'll, I'll let you know when I get to that, once I get a confirmation for that specific information. And that's what I meant by Japan's strategic dilemma. So, so you're looking at a 4, uh, 4 potential summits and midterms that's going to take place. You're looking at the US midterms which could in either direction, either fueling tensions or calming tensions between US-China relations throughout 2026. Well, however, like I mentioned earlier, the fundamental differences, you know, will remain throughout the year. So that's, you know, because Donald Trump is expected to visit China in April. President Xi Jinping is planning on coming to the United States once again. No dates has been provided for that. Then you have about, uh, to my knowledge, about 4— yeah, 4, 4 potential face-to-face meetings possible in 2026. So, and with all this, you think of the Japanese recent statements about Taiwan being a survival-threatening situation. So for Japan, if attacked, sort of, that's what triggered the escalation with the Chinese. So, and that led to, you know, not only on economic but diplomatic, military, and informational responses. So, and this is again, I am once again, the way I reach this conclusion is based on what happened in 2010 and 2012. So go back and look, and look what took place, especially when it comes down to the Japanese-Chinese relations and the overall trajectory. That is where I see one of the major security concerns for the Asia-Pacific. And of course, the other one has to do with Taiwan, and not because of what Japan said, but rather for US Congress, which allocated up to $1 billion for the fiscal year of 2026 for Taiwan-related security cooperation. And that should be your writing on the wall as to what's moving forward with them. Southeast Asia, you're looking at it also on the other side. For Southeast Asia, and the sort of what they're gonna try, some will try to some sort of diverge. It has different responses to China's regional strategy. So, so, because you also have to consider the content of the Chinese 2025 White Defense White Paper. So, and that in itself indicated some sort of indifference towards the timely finalization of a China-ASEAN code of conduct in South China Sea by 2026. So, and this is where you're going to see the difference, in my opinion, moving 2026, what China is going to do. And again, as one who took a look at this, at the Chinese 2025 defence white paper, it gives me an idea now that what China is going to do in 2026 is going to embark on a strategy of having bilateral negotiations with the claimant states, you know, because, you know, Philippines, Philippines is not independent. Philippines, again, is not as sovereign as we might think. So what I believe China wants to do is wants to do the same or replicate what it had with Indonesia, with Malaysia, with Vietnam, and maybe Cambodia. Try to do it with the Philippines, maybe. But that's how I see it moving forward. And this approach, in my opinion, may prompt Southeast Asian nations, uh, sort of, uh, uh, try to seek some sort of, uh, uh, economic and security diversification with extra-regional players or powers. You know, Vietnam, to my knowledge, is expected to strengthen security cooperation with extra-regional powers while at the same time reassuring China that such actions are not aimed against Beijing. I don't see the same with Philippines. Why? Because Philippines has hardened under pressure from the United States its stance against China, especially when you consider the Philippines-US security alignment and the movement of US weapons on the Filipino— on the Philippines territories. The other region will be the Middle East. So I had Europe here before. Sorry, I didn't— I know I had the map somewhere. The other one has to do with the Middle East. Once again, I had a map somewhere. Right there, let's just use this one. Well, this is just the— yeah, it's not the right one. Right there, Middle East. The first thing that comes to mind, and for me, I will focus the 2026 on, is the Iran-Israel dynamics and the regional reconstruction. Of course, we all know what happened in June. The 12-day war greatly impacted Iran's military capabilities. However, uh, Israel remain wary that Tehran will replenish its ballistic missile stocks, which already did. And that in itself, because Iran, to my knowledge, has already reinstituted its missile stockpile to approximately 2 2,000, to my knowledge, according to sort of credible sources for that. And this is where it gives you an idea that Iran is prioritizing its missile programs in anticipation for another conflict with Israel, which Israel is going to have to think twice because Iran will be in a position to launch all 2,000 missiles all at once, which means the defense systems before Israel won't be able to overcome that. There is no way. There is no way. So on the other hand, you look at what the Israelis are thinking, the government, that is the officials inside the government are already signaling that they are prepared to adopt some sort of distinct policies towards the, even not just Iran, but the Lebanese government, even Hezbollah for that matter. So, but again, Israel, it's gonna have to figure out a way how to move forward because the Gaza and Palestine-Israeli issues still remain. And Netanyahu is afraid and concerned of moving to Phase 2 of the peace accord, which, by the way, Israel has violated on many occasions. So 2026 will either mark the end of the Gaza War or the initiation of a reconstruction and hope, or in my opinion perpetuate some sort of a state of stagnation and stalemate, which what I'm leaning towards. So, and this risking the return to fighting, so, and devastation beyond the tragic deaths and all that while the rest of the world is just watching. And by the way, those happens with the support of the US. Shame on my government. No, I'm not denying this. I gotta say it. So, and this is why for Iran is gonna think, and I will do a special video just for you about this issue. I don't want to say too much on this. One thing is sure is that Iran will face the 2026 with some sort of complexities on both, because Iran will have to deal with domestic and foreign pressures. So it's gonna have to figure that. So the next one has to do with Africa at large. This is just the Sahel region, but I did get a map for you for Africa right there. Africa also is worth addressing. Of course, you're gonna have, as I said, you're gonna be hearing from, or reading if you get a chance to read, the white papers coming out of think tanks. The two words that you're gonna be seeing the most has to do with instability and democratic backsliding. So, and of course, that will be the justification for what you are witnessing. Take the example of what just happened on Saturday. With the Prime Minister of Israel recognizing the Somali land, or the land of Somalia, which is an independent country, which is creating a problem to begin with. So, so the conflict in Sudan is set to enter its third year in 2026, and there is— there are no indications, in my opinion, that the conflict is coming to an end. So because both entities, the SAF and the RSF are still continuing to entrench themselves in some sort of conflicts and territories they control, and it's going to keep going. So, and this is why some Western think tanks are going to take the advantage of this and tie it, tie it to the backsliding of democracy. You know, go figure, right? So they're going to be using the terms like, oh, democracy is hanging in by a thread. Democracy on the ropes? No, no, because you're going to have to look what the Sahel region have accomplished since they got rid of the Western imperialists— France, you know, US, UK, Germany, you name it. Even though Germany wasn't there physically, but Germany has a dark, uh, uh, uh, history in, in, uh, the Dutch also have a dark history in Africa. But when you look at now what Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso are moving towards, they're using their own resources. So what the white papers coming out of Western think tanks is going to have you believe otherwise. So because they're going to be saying, oh, we want to be the vanguard of Africa. No, no, because you are already looking at some sort of the death of the Francophone Africa. Most countries want to get rid of French language altogether. Yeah, I'm not denying 2026 is going to remain bleak for Africa, but again, the journey of a thousand miles or thousand steps or whatever starts with the first step. A journey of a thousand miles starts with the first step. So Africa is doing that already. The important thing is that in 2026, you have about 17 African nations will hold elections. You know, we're talking about presidential, local, National Assembly, and so forth, you know, and that's going to give you an idea where things are. The other one has to do with U.S. policy shifts, and that you have to tie it to the power competition. So So if we are to think of Africa, the US is ending its aid and development to Africa. Why? Because they could not compete with the Russians and the Chinese. So, and the influence of US in Africa is going to even be weaker. So of course they will have you the arguments, all the other countries, the Chinese putting Africa in a debt trap. What? It's nonsense because the Chinese are building infrastructure for the African nations. Simple as that. So that's the way I see it playing out. So what's gonna be moving forward is that you're gonna be seeing that competition between major powers— U.S., Russia, China— but at the same time, you're gonna have some other Western nations creating tensions and, and pitting states against each other in Africa. Remember, all those jihadist groups, whatever Who's funding that? The West. It's not a secret, you know. We all know, you know. I was there. It's kind of— chickens are coming home to roost, as the saying goes. Latin America. Let me see if I have a map for you for Latin America. Maybe, maybe not. No. I forgot to put it. Latin America, what's important about it? Of course, Venezuela and a regional spillover effect. And what you're looking at, the tensions between the US and Venezuela with some sort of a speculation now about the US military interventions, which is nothing but just to keep the narrative going. We don't have the force to do it. 15,000 is not enough. You know, you compare this to what happened in Vietnam. With over what, 500,000, half a million? And we didn't even defeat Vietnam. So what this puts, gives you an idea of is that this kind of setting pose a serious risk. So because any US military action against Venezuela will most likely increase tensions between Colombia and the US. And that in itself is going to impact the Colombian upcoming elections. Because that's very important. Because 2026 Colombian presidential elections, that represents an opportunity for the resetting of some sort of the US-Colombia ties. Of course, if we end up having a puppet in Bogotá working on behalf of the US. So, so, but what you're looking at, the reality on the ground, is that with all major candidates from the center and the right, all of them stating their intentions to repair the bilateral relations and strengthen security cooperation with the US. You got the idea. Of oil. So what all this is going to do to another dimension, and this has to do with transnational organized crimes, uh, uh, uh, syndicates and so forth. What you're going to be seeing is you're going to be seeing an expansion in 2026, organized transna— uh, organized crimes organizations. I got an example for you, like for example The, the Tren de Aragua, which is in Venezuela, by the way. You have the Chinaros, which is in Ecuador, if my memory serves me well. And you have others in, in Honduras and in some other countries. So what's happened? All of them are now expanding their influence. So it's because of the dynamics that's going on. So And they are, by the way, moving, not just expanding their influence in, in the drug trafficking, moving into some other sectors like, for example, mining, arms smuggling, cyber crimes. All of this is going to play a key aspect into all this. The next one, I have one and I'll do the conclusion for you. This is the Arctic. So militarization, it's, it's, it's the, is the key word for, for what's going on in the Arctic. So the Arctic, you'd be looking at pictures right there. This is the Russians. So the Arctic has transformed from some sort of remote stable frontier into central arena of global strategic competition. I argue this in my, in my Russia book. As a matter of fact, I'm sharing with you some of that analysis that I put in the book if you ever get a chance to read it. So basically what you're going to be seeing, you see in this strategic competition, so, and the return of the great power rivalry. So why is this? Because it's facilitated by the technological development. So, so the other dimension to this has to do with the two countries in the region, Finland and Sweden, after joining NATO. So, so because all of them now, except Russia, of course, they all fall under the US-led alliance. So, and this is why the Russia strategic priorities in the Arctic is going to intensify. So you're looking at 80% of Russia's natural gas and 17% of its oil are extracted from the Arctic. So, and the Russians, by the way, are planning on reducing the output, but at the same time, what they're going to be doing, especially for the energy security, is they're going to increase oil production. Why? Because they're gonna expand the Northern Sea Route through infrastructure investments. And who's involved in that investment? Does anybody know which country is involved in that investment? Let me see in the chat box if you can type in which country that is. There is a one country, specific country, involved in the investments of this Northern Sea Route. With the Russians. Oh, Arkani, you got it, you got it, it's China indeed. Uh, Fida, you got it. Alin, China, you got it. Faran, you got it. Rampos, you got— you guys got it, it's China. So the only problem— so of course, as I mentioned, Russia's sort of, uh, has always been the strategic thinking for thinking of a long, long route, the Northern Sea Route, and that in itself will deliver about 150 million tons of cargo annually. But it has been some sort of still challenges. They are still there. So, and especially when it comes down to the Chinese investments needed to develop the Arctic. But the Chinese, some sort of, are very cautious about— it's their investments, they're gonna have to be. There is a, there is great article out there, I remember reading it, I'm gonna share it in the chat box for you. You can read it later on if you get a chance to do it. So the Chinese are thinking strategically into this. That's why they are not investing heavily But they are investing in the Arctic because they're seeing what's coming. So, and the other dimension has to do with nuclear concerns and that in itself, I'm not going to say much because you won't see much on that dimension except that the Russians is not going to renew with the Americans any, the nuclear treaty. I think one of them, it's not going to be renewed. So, and this leads me to my conclusion, the bottom line for 2026. So once again, where the world is headed. So we could, we could use the term some sort of competitive fragmentation. That's what we are going towards, you know, a system where you have multiple power centers pursuing their own, of course, strategic interest but only with limited coordination. So on one hand, then you have on the other hand, the regional conflicts will persist without resolution. Economic relationships are weaponized and military buildup will accelerate. It's not yet so-called to return to resolutions per se, or return to the 1930s style conflict. No, no, no, no, no. It's moving away from the rule-based interconnected order for the past 30 years. Why? Because we Americans couldn't hold that. We breaking the same rule that we established to say this is what's going to manage the world. So this is why for businesses, for investors, for policymakers, for analysts, for citizens, you in this case, 2026 will likely feel like a year of persistent uncertainty, a tactical adjustment, and of course geopolitical shifts on, on different levels. So now the consolidation of no, of longer, some sort of term trends towards Ottakri, you know, regional alignments, strategic hedging. All this is going to take place. So, and this is where you hope for some breakthroughs, resolutions in a major conflict. But sad to say, I don't see that at this time. Maybe in a few months, but I don't see that. It's limited. So, so, so 2026 will be a year of managing chronic tensions rather than resolving them. That's the way I can conclude this for you. So I'm an optimistic guy, but again, reality suggests what I see coming. So I hope you enjoyed listening to this analysis here. First of all, let me say thank you to American Citizen for your, for your support and super sticker. As always, you wrote, happy holidays, thank you for sharing your knowledge. Can you foresee a 1:1 ratio of silver to gold? Also, what might become of Cuba? Well, for gold, the one question you're gonna need to ask yourself is why China is holding now the export of silver. That tells you right there something is coming. I got a gift for Christmas silver coins, which you know what it's worth now. So that means silver is moving into that direction of gold. Because if you go about just 10 years ago when gold was about, uh, $800 or about even $400 something or something like that, everybody was like, oh, gold is not going to go up. Crossed over $1,000, it's now over $4,500. The same can be said about there's silver here. Regarding Cuba, I, I don't see any changes moving forward. The only change you're going to see if the US invade Venezuela— Cubans may end up having to go and support Venezuela because Cuba was getting also oil from Venezuela. So that's the only way I see it moving forward into that. And once again, American Citizen, thank you so much for your super sticker. Oh, you got me 3, man! So will the US take Nigerian oil? Yeah, they will try to, of course, because we are not there for defending Christians. Have nothing to do with Christians, you know. If we are, why aren't we in India? You know, it's logical question. Where they are, the— you all know what the Indian government is doing to the Christians. And I'll have a great show for you with Jayant Bhandari because I have clips I worked for the last 48 hours on gathering all those clips. Disturbing, to say the least. You know, shame on Modi for allowing that. So, so yeah, no, regarding Nigeria, of course the US will want to try to because Nigeria has a lot of oil. But Nigeria's government is corrupted, as corrupted as it gets. And it's just Nigeria, other countries as well. Anyway, I hope you guys, uh, join me tomorrow for my conversation with, uh, with Jared Bahndari. And the following day, I'm gonna do my own analysis for you about, uh, what took place between India and Saudi Arabia and providing you some insights. I'm waiting for some confirmations regarding the alleged spying of Indians on behalf of Israel. So I will be providing you my own insight. Uh, to those who might not know that I have decided, uh, to go to Asia for my next trip, which will be in few months. Uh, I, I will let you know the time frame, but for now, uh, should you decide to support, uh, my upcoming Asia trip, let me put the link for you in the chat box. I will greatly appreciate that. Remember, my trips to Asia are supported by the community. No one else funded those trips. It's the community that does that. So I just want you to be aware of this. Here is the link for it right here, and I put one for you in the chat box. And for those who want to support the channel for the content that I provide you, and you all know what kind of value you are getting regarding this, I would greatly appreciate if you could support the channel. And, uh, let me put the link for you here, uh, should you decide to do so. Here's the link for it right here. I would greatly appreciate it. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Take care. Bye-bye.