In this Geopolitical Trends video, analyst David Oualaalou examines why Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is confronting a rare no‑confidence motion in Parliament, linking it to the ongoing ethnic violence in Manipur. He outlines the conflict between the Hindu‑majority Meitei community and the Christian‑majority Kuki and Naga tribes, highlighting incidents of sexual violence and mass displacement. Oualaalou criticizes Modi’s silence and the BJP’s overwhelming parliamentary majority as evidence of failed leadership. He references a prior 2018 no‑confidence motion over the Andhra Pradesh split, and argues that the deteriorating social climate is prompting multinational corporations—including Metro AG, Holcim, Ford, RBS, Harley‑Davidson, and Citibank—to withdraw or downsize operations in India, signaling a hostile business environment. The analyst concludes that, unless investors are willing to risk losses, India should be avoided for foreign direct investment, and invites viewer engagement through comments and subscriptions.
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Hello everyone and welcome to Geopolitical Trends. My name is David Oualaalou. So good to be with you as always. As an analyst, I ask, why is Modi— Narendra Modi, that is, Prime Minister of India— is facing a rare no-confidence vote? Yeah, in this video I'm going to provide you not only the answer but my assessment as to where India is headed under the failed leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Let's dive in into this fascinating topic. A member of the All India Meghila Congress holds a placard, as you see on your screen there, with a portrait of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi with a message reading, and I quote, Modi, break your silence on Manipur, end of quote. So this was during a protest over sexual violence against women and for peace in the ongoing ethnic violence in India's northeastern state of Manipur in New Delhi. Yeah, it's troubling. So Prime Minister Narendra Modi will face a vote of no confidence in Parliament after lawmakers from Congress, India's main opposition party, introduced a motion over the ongoing violence in the northeastern part of Manipur. Well, I can see why the vote will move forward, but it won't make any change. Why? Because the party, PJD, has a majority. So of course they are not going to do the right thing. They gonna side with Modi. So Om Birla, Om Birla is the speaker of the Lok Sabha, or lower house of the parliament, approved the motion on saying he would soon decide when the debate and vote will take place. Why soon? Make it happen now. I know Modi is ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, known as BJP and its Hindu nationalist allies have an overwhelming majority in Parliament. This is why nothing is got done for Indian citizens. There's nothing against the party itself, but Indian citizens are not being served as they ought to be. But the opposition leaders hope to move— hope that the move, this call for no confidence vote on Modi, Hope that this move will force the Indian leaders to speak at length about ethnic clashes in Manipur. He's staying quiet. You know, you gotta call spade a spade. Nothing against Modi here, but come on, man. You are leader of a country that is marred by social ethnic tensions, and you need to step up and show leadership for the sake of that country. You know, you know, why are you targeting Christians or Muslims or— it doesn't have to be. India has always been inclusive. I mean, look at its old history, and India is an old civilization. It's a great one. So Modi, Prime Minister, needs to step forward. And here's the thing, this, this clashes, these ethnic clashes have led to death of, of more than 130 people and the displacements of the tens of thousands of people more. Why? Because they happen to have a different religion? I mean, come on, it's pathetic. So the Indian government has largely remained silent about the crisis that began in Manipur in early May. That's how far back it goes. You don't hear much about it. And when this came to my attention, I was like, no, I'm not gonna hold back. I'm gonna let people know. And this happened back in May between the majority, uh, uh, Meitei group who are overwhelmingly Hindus and the mainly Christian Kuki, or Kuki, is K-U-K-I, uh, and the Naga tribes in the BJP-led state. You know, they are minority there, so So last week, videos showing two Kuki women being paraded through a village after being stripped naked and assaulted by a mob in Manipur, which went viral, by the way, I saw it on my Twitter feed, you know, sparking national outrage and global condemnation. Yeah, even including the senior members of the Biden administration. Who said, and I quote, "This was shocked and horrified," end of quote. Yeah, so where is the leadership of Prime Minister Modi? So more and more around the world are now witnessing the eroding policies of Prime Minister Modi that are fomenting more ethnic tensions inside India. A good enough reason, I believe, in my opinion as an analyst, to divert or to divest from investing in India. This is why you're seeing more foreign companies, multinational corporations leaving India in troves, you know. There is no foreign direct investments in India anymore. So a slew of big names of companies, from German retailer Metro AG to Swiss building material firm Holosim, to automaker US Ford, and US banking major Royal Bank of Scotland, to US bike maker Harley-Davidson, and of course the US banking giant Citibank. They all have decided it's time to pull the plug on their operations in India or even downsize their presence recently because the social setting, it's not conducive for a thriving business. So all this suggests that the business environments, in my opinion, fueled also by the social tensions, is not conducive for business. You know, if I were to advise multinational corporations, I say forget about India unless you want to just waste your money there. So, by the way, this is the second time Modi faces a no-confidence motion since coming to power in 2014. The first one was in 2018. So, Congress lawmakers brought a motion that was defeated in 2018 after a 12-hour debate over the state of Andhra, Andhra Pradesh. Which was controversially split into two by Modi's government and given a special category status for tax concessions to attract new investors. So you all can see, you know, this is why I use the term failed policies of the Prime Minister Modi. Nothing against India, nothing against Modi, but you call a spade a spade. The truth matters. If you guys want me to elaborate more, I have more information after I especially conduct my own research. I'll be happy to do it in a live stream, so make sure to leave me some comments. And some— I like to read your feedbacks as always. So please hit that like button if you like the content of this video and also subscribe. I will really appreciate your support. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, guys, bye-bye.
