ASEAN's Surprising Move That Could Shake Up the Global Economy!

All right, hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends. My name is David Oualaalou. We are on a live stream here, so excited to be with you as always. Uh, we got a great— I got a great topic for you guys we're gonna be addressing today, and this one has to do of course with the decision of ASEAN, uh, ditching the US dollar. And I'm gonna get into all this But first, like I always do, because I feel, uh, it's very important to show gratitude and thanks to the channel's members and, and supporters. So I want to extend my thanks to all of them, no exception. And of course, for you as a subscriber, and if this is your first time here and you, you might like the content that I do, please subscribe to this channel to help me out to move forward. Speaking of members, I will be doing a live Q&A session next week, uh, for the, the channel's members. So I hope you can join me, uh, uh, next week, and I'll announce it for you guys. So, uh, what else I need to say about the membership? Uh, for the members, uh, I will always be, uh, releasing the video for you first to see it before it becomes public, like the video that I have now, on private for the members, and it will become public by tomorrow, I believe. So, so today's topic, we're going to be talking about ASEAN. Okay, why is ASEAN important to understand? And by the way, guys, if you can hear me very well, if you can give me a thumbs up just to make sure, uh, because I can't tell from here, uh, because I want to make sure it's working. So if any of you on the chat room give me a thumbs up that the the sound is good. I would really appreciate it. Great, thank you, thank you, Tal, uh, appreciate it. So, because I, I always like to make sure I learned from my mistake last time. So, uh, as I said, ASEAN, why does it matter, you know, and how this decision will impact now global trade, global finance, and the global economy, you know. And the third question within this talking points that I'm going to be covering is what geopolitical angle, you know, that, that led ASEAN to embark on this decision. There is a geopolitical angle for them. They're not doing it for the goodness of their heart. Of course, it's a savvy move, it's a strategic move, and I will detail all this for you. So Uh, like I always do, I do a tour around the world. Okay, if you guys like that one, if you don't like it, just let me know and I'll scrap it out. So the tour around the world, so let me show, uh, share a picture with you first about, uh, the picture has to do with— where is this one? Right here. Okay, and, uh, okay, here's the first picture. It's right here. So this one has to do with China. China has called on a— this doesn't belong to China, by the way. China has called on major powers to withdraw nuclear weapons deployed abroad. You know, and cancel— get this, guys— relevant agreements with host countries to reduce the risk of a nuclear war. You know, I can see the rationale for that. However, I don't think so, uh, China's call is going to be, uh, listened to or heeded forward. You know, the US is not going to give that up, Russia is not going to give that up. The Brits and France because they don't post their nuclear weapons on other countries' territory. So, but I can see the rationale for why Russia is, is doing that one. So the next one has to do with, uh, this one here. It has to do with the, the Joint Chief of Staff, the, the chairman of the US military, General Mike Milley, who stated recently that, uh, he rules out now. Yeah, he's ruling out the success of Ukraine forces in expelling the Russians. What do you expect? And let alone, like I said before, Ukraine is not getting back that territory. It's over. It was a miscalculation on part of the West. And speaking of that, Finland yesterday now is officially part of NATO, which basically it dug a hole for itself. That is what's going on with the, with the, uh, Finland. So, and the last thing I want to share with you has to do with this AI, okay? Now here is the question for you with this AI, and if you can leave the answer if you like on the chat room: should we, all of us, humanity, should we be scared or concerned about AI? Yeah, should we be scared or concerned about AI? If you can just leave your answer on the chat and I will share it as we move forward. So, and, uh, just before I move an inch further, I like to see who's joining me from. And by the way, uh, I want to say, I want to highlight this gentleman here. Agnes Gargiel. Why? He logged in at 2:44 this morning. That's how early he was. So, so I appreciate you, Agnes— Angus, I'm sorry, Angus, for doing that. So let me see who else from joining. Losio from Montreal, good to have you. Uh, Alba Back, as always, from Alberta, Canada, good to have you. Uh, Uh, Steve. Steve is your first time joining me here on a live stream, so I'm glad you got a chance to land on my channel here, but make sure to subscribe. Uh, uh, Matthew Rim from Brazil, good to have you. Uh, who is from Malaysia? Peter Chin from Malaysia. Uh, Yan Harcore, good to see you as always, an avid supporter, and I appreciate you for that, and all the other members as well. So, uh, Rudy from Belgium, good to have you. Uh, good evening to you too. Elizabeth Rob, uh, uh, Bree from Philadelphia. Oh, Big Philly! By the way, I went to school in Pennsylvania in Lancaster, which is only about 45-minute drive from Philly, so I'm very familiar with the South Street in Philly and all that. So, uh, Malaysia, uh, Cho, uh, yeah, good to have you. Coach is a member of the channel, so, uh, good to have you as always. Oh my gosh, look at this one! Hey guys, El Hajj from Brunei! Oh my God, good to have you! Wow, that's way back there, so good to have you. Alex from Australia, good to have you. Uh, let me see who else. Yeah, Steve Lynn from Canada. Good to have you, Steve from UK. And, uh, oh, James from Texas, my home state. So, uh, Crypto Counter from Florida, good to have you back here. I remember your name. Uh, oh no, this is a funny one. Look at, guys, this one, Ursula van der Leyen. That's Rudy. That's, that's, that's funny. So, uh, Okay, who else? That's about it here. So let's jump in into, uh, oh, greetings from, uh, uh, Jesus Aguilar from LA. Good to have you here. So let's move on to talk about the health segment because I always share this with you. And the tip for today has to do with, and believe it or not guys, I got you a picture for it. So let me show it to you. Here it is, lemon. It's very— and I'm going to tell you why briefly. So, uh, why lemon is good for you, lemon water, that is. So, so lemon water, why is good for you? And by the way, guys, any health tip that I share with you, I do it myself. So I will never ever— mark my words on this— I will never ever tell you something that I am not doing it or have experience with it, whatever. So, so I just want to put this out there for you. So why lemon is important for you? Well, first of all, it works as a filter for your kidneys. That is why. Second thing, it promotes hydration. Okay, another, uh, benefits of it, it's a, a great source of vitamin C. So It also helps because the acidity in the, in the lemon, it helps with the digestive system. Because if you don't have enough acid in your, in your tummy, when you digest, the food won't be digested good. That's why a lot of problem, a lot of people run to problems with the digestive system. So, and it helps, as I said, uh, with the filter in the kidney and prevent kidney stones. That is why it's very, very important. So the way I do it is, uh, in the morning, usually as soon as I get up— and, and by the way, when you take lemon, do not peel the skin. That's where the vitamins also are, or the nutri— or nutrition, that is. I usually cut it in half, put it in a blender that made only for those juices, and mix the whole things with the seeds and everything. Don't throw that up. Make— just blend it. And mix with, with the warm water and goggle it up before, about 30 minutes before you eat. If you eat breakfast, you know, I don't do breakfast. I only eat 2 meals a day and sometimes I only eat 1 meal a day. Once a year I'll do 1 meal a day for a whole month. So anyway, enough of health stuff. Let's jump in into our conversation here. Like I always do, I'll share the narrative with you as far as, uh, uh, discussion, brief analysis and so forth. And give you my insights, geopolitical that is, as to why things happen. Then I'll open up for your questions. So, so here is what happened with ASEAN, for those who do not know. And thank you, by the way, for those who put a comment, because I put a question for you whether you would like me to do the live stream on it or you would like a video stand by itself. And some of you mentioned they prefer to have a live stream setting. And, and, and that's what are we doing here. So, so, uh, an official meeting that took place of the finance ministers of ASEAN and the central bankers, or bank governors, that is, for the ASEAN countries, which just took place about, uh, on Tuesday. Yeah, in, in Indonesia, you know. And guess what was at the top of the agenda decision? Yes, you got it, the decision to kind of reduce ASEAN countries' dependency on the US dollar, okay, on the euro, okay, and the Japanese yen. So, and also the British pound, that was also included in that conversation. And why? To settle— so they can settle the trade in local currencies. And it's the right move. That makes perfect sense. And by the way, don't think of this as— especially for the dollar, I can't speak on behalf about the, the British pound or the Japanese yen or the euro. For the US dollar, there will be still certain transactions of some countries within ASEAN that still conducted the dollar. Remember, this one is for within the organization, in other words, among themselves. That is where the key— I know I saw a comment, uh, one of our viewers here mentioned, well, Dr. O, this one has been, uh, in the process. Yes, it has, but you're gonna have to take it within the geopolitical current context. Why now ASEAN coming forward and, and stating this publicly? It's no different than what Saudi Arabia did. It's no different than what Egypt did, no different than what Iraq and Brazil, you know. That is why it's important. And, and I'm gonna be detailing a few things here, but it behooves us to at least provide you a snapshot about what is ASEAN for those who might not know. And, and believe it or not, there are people sometimes they might not know here in the US. I'll tell you this, guys, you mentioned the term BRICS— Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. And people will say, what the heck is this? They don't know. Yeah, so it's, it's normal. So it makes sense for me to detail just brief history about it. Well, ASEAN stands for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. You know, it's an international organization, okay, that was established by the governments. Here is, here's how it evolved. It was established by the governments of Indonesia Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. This was back in 1967 when it all started. Then it accelerated, it moved forward, uh, uh, sort of, uh, uh, to accelerate the economic growth of those organizations, the social progress, of course, and the cultural exchange among them, you know, uh, and all of it also included the promotion of security, believe it or not, believe it or not, in Southeast Asia. So fast forward to 1984, that's when Brunei joined the organization, okay? It was followed by Vietnam in 1990, uh, 1995, if I recall. I hope I'm not wrong. But it was in 1995. Then after this, you get 3 other countries, uh, Laos and Myanmar. They joined in 1997, and the last one was Cambodia in 1991— I'm sorry, 1999. I had a chance to go to Cambodia. Wonderful people. I truly enjoyed visiting the, the, the palace of, uh, uh, Northern Sihanouk back then. And I had a chat with some monks, wonderful people, very, very— I enjoyed Phnom Penh. So back then, so, so ASEAN as a whole, the region has a population of over almost 600 million people. Why is this important? Is the sheer size of the market, you know. And it covers a total area of about 1.7 million square miles, the equivalency of about 4 million kilometers, square kilometers. That is the important about ASEAN, just for you to know, uh, it evolved in its— even its, its name, because it used to be called, uh, ASA, which is the assoc— the, uh, uh Association of Southeast Asia. That's, that's what it used to be. It was till later on it changed to ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. That's what it is. So, and, and as I said, which has been formed by the Philippines, Thailand, and so forth, as I mentioned earlier. So, so that is, that is about ASEAN, uh, for, for, uh, the structure of it. Now economically, you have to think about, uh, ASEAN GDP. You know, it's no small matter. $2.8, almost $3 trillion. Yeah, it's not small matter. Of course can be compared to the EU. EU has a larger— over, over, uh, uh, the last estimate that I read was about $200 trillion, something like that. So it's a lot, but doesn't matter. We're focusing about the, the ASEAN right now. So GDP, and it is expected, by the way, for it to, uh, expand by about 5.2%. As a matter of fact, some other stats that I looked at in 2023 will expand by about 5.3%. And when I compare this to other countries or other regions I looked at the EU, will only extend by about 0.08. That's the expectation of the growth for 2023. For the US, 1.8. For China, 5.2. For India, 5.6. That's the stats that I found. So, so it's very, very interesting, uh, uh, how it's going to move. Now the only concern I have personally, it has to do with inflation because it's a reflection of the global economy, how it is. So the inflation, uh, in, in, in Southeast Asia— in ASEAN, I'm sorry, the region— was about 3.7% in 2022. That's the last stats that I looked at. It is expected to go down to 3.1% in 2023. So that is where I see Uh, and as I said again, uh, the ASEAN economy, uh, goes above $2.8 trillion. That is where, uh, the importance of, of, of why we are addressing ASEAN. So now becomes the question, why did ASEAN decide to embark on this? Because it didn't happen in a vacuum and didn't happen yesterday. By the way, this kind of decisions, when they come public, they've already been negotiated behind closed doors or talked about behind closed doors. It's no different than what Saudi Arabia did with China when Saudis officially and publicly announced they are dropping the US dollar from the bilateral trade with China and embracing the yuan. That was when President Xi went to Saudi Arabia last year. That's how long it took. It's no different for ASEAN. What makes the case of ASEAN very interesting, you have to understand each country within the organizations looking after its own interest. Yes, they are thinking in terms of the whole organization, which is common sense. But you take an example of countries like Indonesia, and I did a video on it, the corruption that's going on in Indonesia, because Indonesian people deserve better. It's like any other country. We have it right here. American people deserve better, but our government is corrupted to the core. The system is corrupted. So in the case of Indonesia, Indonesia needed to shield, yeah, itself from geopolitical disruptions. That is the key why Indonesia was pushing forward with that. Indonesia also went ahead and made the decision to import oil from Russia despite pressure from the US not to do so. So, and why Indonesia is doing this? Because Indonesia was a, a founding member also of the ASEAN. And because they're saying moving away from the Western payment system is necessary to protect transactions from possible geopolitical repercussions, as I mentioned. As a matter of fact, now President Joko Widodo now is encouraging Indonesians to use credit cards issued by local banks, not Visa or MasterCard, because anytime you use that you have to pay the fees for the conversion of the currency. This is why you are seeing this global trend— the more countries are dumping the dollar as far as bilateral trade and moving into their own currencies. So now I have to, uh, sort of, uh, not put a question for you because I like you to engage also in this, not just me talking here. Like I always say in classrooms, uh, when I give lectures to students, I always make it sure it goes both ways. I am here to learn from you as well, guys. You know, it goes both ways. That, that's how I look at it. So no one is better than anybody else. So the question that I'm going to want to ask you, and please just leave the answer on the chat room if you feel like it, so Why? And, and part of our conversation, why Singapore end up following the US and imposing sanctions on Russia? Do you believe Singapore was pressured, or do you believe Singapore was afraid of the US? So there's just something to think about, because I do find it very troubling politically speaking. So for ASEAN nations, all of them except Singapore, all of them said, said no. Not all of them, except Singapore of course, said no, we're not going to sanction Russia because we have trade, we have deals with, with, with Russia. Except Singapore. Singapore has enforced sanctions on Russia while all other ASEAN nations, because continue to trade with Russia. So the big question, why? Why that is? Now, could this have to do with the, uh, the geography of Singapore? Could this have to do with the, uh— because we have a trade with— not trade, I'm sorry, we have an agreement with Singapore where, for example, 7th Fleet can go to the ports in Singapore and, and do a refueling there. So this is where I see very concerning. And mind you, at the time of this record of this live stream here, the, the Prime Minister of Singapore is in China. So is actually— I got, uh, let me share it with you here, guys. Uh, I gotta get my glasses so I can see. The writing is so small here. Uh, for— yeah, when you look at here, look at this one here. Why is this important? I still wonder, for me, and I again, I ask my— I just wonder why Singapore will embark on such initiative by issuing sanctions on, uh, on Russia while all other members are not doing so. I just kind of unusual. So The other aspects of all this has to do with the— uh, that, that's one country, by the way. The second country that I am concerned about has to do with Philippines, and I did mention this before. Why is this important? Look at this picture here. The reason being because Philippines granted 4 more bases for the US. Yeah, 4. Once again, same question. Is Philippines being pressured by the US, or is Philippines scared of the United States? You know, uh, if I am to think outside the box, Philippines is digging a hole for itself, and it could pay the price economically, especially when it comes down to its trade with China. Because it's no small volume. They have— Philippines has major large volume trade with, with China. Look no further than what's going on right now in Australia, which by the way, the government in Canberra are not telling the Aussies the truth, because truth matters. So despite what— truth matters. This is where I see the issue of Pardon me, a country like Philippines, uh, is Philippines— is Marcos Bongbong, Marcos Jr., isn't he thinking strategically? Isn't he thinking the next 15, 20 years? Makes you just wonder, you know, how come a leader that is supposed to have that kind of understanding, uh, of, of how global— in global affairs, you have to think in terms of the interest of your country, strategic one, that is. So that is where I see the problems with, with the Philippines. Singapore, I am wondering why he ends up embarking on the sanctions, on sanctioning Russia. So, so let me go back to our conversation about, for example, uh, some countries deciding to embark, uh, on the, uh dumping the US dollar, the Japanese yen, and the euro in favor of trading bilaterally using their own currencies. So like I said, because they want to reduce their dependency on the foreign transaction, especially when it comes out to the US dollar, because when you transact, uh, with another country through the dollar, uh, you have to convert from one currency to the other, you get charged for that. Then by the time you convert it from that currency, from the dollar to the other currency, the, the receiving country will end up being charged as well. And this is why you heard— you're not— you're gonna be hearing about what they called LCS, the Local Currency Settlement, to those who live, who live in that part of the world— Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and so forth. Thailand, Laos, uh, and Cambodians, uh, you're going to be hearing about the LCS, Local Currency Settlements. It's because they are moving into implementing that kind of, uh, which will facilitate the transactions among their country— these countries. Now keep this in mind, guys, this is only for within ASEAN. It's not a multilateral When I say multilateral, it means global. That's like what Saudi Arabia did with China, is a bilateral. It's the same thing that, uh, uh, Brazil, Brazil just did with, with China. And by the way, uh, I have a video coming up soon about this topic. You need to know certain things. My, my editor is working on putting it together, so So that's— it's going to be released soon. So, uh, and that is why Brazil and China doing it bilaterally. But in the case of Brazil, it has another dimension to it, a very, very geo-economic dimension to it, because Brazil is a large economy in Latin America. You act— if you want to access Latin America, access Brazil. Argentina to a degree, but Argentina is hampered down by the debt, $44 billion from the IMF. So this is why ASEAN— ASEAN is thinking— remember when I put in the talking points the third question, what is the geopolitical angle for ASEAN for it to be doing this? It's because they are wanted to be a step ahead of that shift that is already taking place but it's going to expedite moving forward. Look no further than what's going on right now. Nobody, at least in the US, nobody expect to see this massive speed by which countries are dumping the US dollar. You know, we didn't see it coming. You know, to those in Washington that are living, they live in denial. It's reality, you know. And this is why You got countries now stacking up on gold. That's why I posted this for you yesterday, guys, about the gold prices going up. It's because more and more countries are dumping the US dollar. And the thinking, the strategic thinking, is that, well, if this is happening, there has to be some other mechanisms by which the transaction is going to be conducted. For now, they are on a bilateral level. That is what's— this is, this is what I want you to guys understand. And again, if you happen to be an investor at whatever level, that's something you need to be aware of, you know. Do I invest in, in, in A, or do I invest in B? Do I invest in country A, or do I invest in country B? Do I move my uh, uh, current— my, my currency, whatever currency you have in the bank, into hard assets, or leave them at the bank. This is the reason why I do what I do, guys, is to give you at least a, a step forward to be thinking ahead as to what's need to be done. You know, that, that's the way I see it, because more and more Countries are moving away from the traditional currencies— the euro, the yen, the dollar— mainly the dollar, because the dollar is global currency. And the next logical question is, what's going to replace it? Is it the Chinese, uh, renminbi yuan? You know, like I said last time, and I will repeat it, I do not see signs— and I could be wrong— I do not see signs yet emanating from Beijing suggesting that China wants to have its currency replacing the dollar as the global currency, because it comes with the responsibility and it comes with a lot of headaches. Who wants that? I don't. For example, if I were to advise a, a head of state, no, you don't want that. But what you want is that your bilateral trade be conducted in or transacted in your currency. This way you avoid the middleman. That's how I see it, uh, moving forward. So this also lead me to go back to this map, map here, because it's very important to understand. And this is why ASEAN will play a major role moving forward, same on parallel to what BRICS is doing. Because when you look at the geography, you look at all this area here, you know, hypothetically, if there is a blockade, should there be tensions between the US and China, the blockades that will— it will impact not only China, it will impact those countries, will be in crosshair. Yeah, that's where it will be. And once again, it, it leads me to just question the judgment of the Singapore government for deciding to apply the sanctions on Russia, because it just logically didn't make sense at all whatsoever, unless they have been pressured far beyond what we can even imagine. And I don't claim to know the answer because I don't know. And yet the, uh, his name is Lea, I think. I'm not— I, I don't want to mispronounce his, his name. He's in China because who else is visiting China? The Prime Minister of Spain, Sanchez. Uh, France president and the president of the EU, both of them. Ursula von der Leyen, I call her the clown too, and she lies a lot. She lies a lot. She's a liar. They go into China, you know, makes you just wonder, is Europe— because anytime you see the head of the European Union, uh, is Europe thinking in terms of, uh, this, seeing the trends of where the dollar is headed, and they want to kind of start to distance their financial ties to the dollar? Maybe, maybe not. I am still convinced And this is my personal opinion. I'm still convinced that Europe is so weak that it won't be able to make a decision on its own. It can't. This is why you have now the, uh, uh, uh, representative in the German parliament just yesterday. I listened to it, uh, of course I listened to the translation, I don't speak German, uh, um, asked for the US to leave Germany because we have troops over there, over 38,000 troops there. So asking for the US to remove its troops from Germany, I don't know, there could be the possibility. It is— it might, it might, it might not be. I, I can't tell at this point. So, and when you look at also, uh, uh, and, and here is why it's important to understand geography plays a role. In political science, usually you do what we call the political geography. There is a reason, and that's part of what geopolitics is all about, because geopolitics is tied also to geography. You have to have an understanding of geography. It plays a role, and ASEAN is well positioned geographically to truly influence the directions. Because what do I mean by this? The wealth is already shifted from the East to the West— I'm sorry, from the West to the East. Yeah, and ASEAN with its growing economy, it could play a pivotal role if they choose to do so. It's no different than BRICS. Yeah, and by the way, speaking of BRICS, uh, be on a lookout. It will be about 3 months from now, and I will let you know. I might even do live on it. There will be— and I'm not gonna spoil it for you guys— there will be major announcements coming up during BRICS Summit. So be on the lookout and I will, I will let you know. Speaking of, uh, surprise, I have a surprise for you next month. Yeah, that's all I can say for now. So be on a lookout. All right, let's, uh, move on to the next. Uh, you all remember last time when I say why the role of, uh, uh, uh, why, for example, you have to tie again when you look at an event like this, because this is a major one, especially for an economic bloc. Because last time I did say that the new emerging multipolar system It's not going to be based on ideology. I've, I've said this many times and I will keep repeating it because a lot of people misunderstood that. Now, where we wonder what kind of ideology now it's going to be as far as the new, uh, multipolar, it's not going to be based on ideology. It's going to be based on economic blocks. You're looking for BRICS to play a role. You're looking for ASEAN to play a role. You're You're looking for RCEP, the, uh, uh, uh, RCEP— I forgot the first word of it— the Regional Economic Cooperative. Yeah, something like that. It's not on top of my head right now. Uh, play a role. You look at the African Union, which could play a role because they already moving away. You look at you what Kenya just did, what Angola just stated. What South Africa stated also. They're all shifting into that direction. And you put this within the context of, like I said last time when I did about Saudis joining SCO, you all remember, right? Remember the geography of the Central Asia? Why is it important? It's because it is tied to this one here, the BRI, the Belt and Road Initiative. That is the reason why And Saudis did not want to be left behind once that train leaves the station. That's the reason why they are— they decided to join the SCO. So you take all those countries, or all those blocks, I'm sorry, you take all those economic blocks, and you ask yourself, are they gonna cooperate together, or are they gonna compete against each other? I don't see the latter, I see the former. And that in itself should signal to you how the new multipolar system is going to be. And you add the other dimension— well, you remember the two dimensions that I said to you last time, guys. There are two dimensions I said to you when it comes down to geopolitics. Can anybody type there, type in the chat room, what are those two main elements that influence the geopolitical directions? So let me see, because I did mention it a couple times. I just want to see, uh, all right, can anybody— I know it, it's delayed here by the time, uh, but I'm gonna just take a look quickly here, see in case somebody wrote it down. Yeah, two, two, uh, uh, uh, geography to a degree, but, but there are two main elements that truly influence geopolitical directions. So, okay, I'm gonna, I'm gonna say it because it's not coming up here yet. It takes a while, but Anyway, it has to do with economics and finance. That's what you are seeing what ASEAN is doing as we speak, because that is a direction for the new geopolitical direction where things going to be headed. And the direction that geopolitical path is going to be is going to be based on economic blocks. That's why you are witnessing what you are witnessing here. So it's, it's, uh Uh, because country is going to be— it's not going— they are already thinking in terms of economics. You know, you look at in Africa, like I always say, because I'm a little unfamiliar with, with, uh, with Africa very well actually, uh, it's because the massive amount of natural resources Africa, but Africa has been deprived of that. It's no different than what happened in Indonesia back in the '70s when we went to Indonesia and we went with our oil companies and took over the resources in that part of the country. Malaysia has, has potentials there, you know. Singapore, of course, Singapore doesn't have as much natural resources as, let's say, Indonesia or Malaysia. And this is again where I am, I'm really, really— I'm going to use the term perplexed as to why Singapore embarked on this decision. I was like floored when I came across this way back when, when the government made the decision to sanction or follow in the footsteps of the West regarding sanctions for sanctioning Russia. Yeah, just didn't make sense to me at all. So, so that is the reason why, uh, oh, let me say thank you to Uh, oh, Osiris, thank you so much. By the way, guys, Osiris, I can't thank you enough, man, for your support. I truly mean it. And interesting enough is that I looked back about 3 months ago, that's when you started, all the way 3 months ago. And I can't thank you enough, I truly mean it. So I appreciate it. The, uh Yeah, for, for Singapore to be embarking on that. But, but we shouldn't, we shouldn't point fingers at Singapore saying, oh, it's bad. No, no, no. It just, when it comes down to, you have to always evaluate the policy of a country. When a country embark on a policy, you're gonna have to evaluate, okay, why this particular course of action but not this one? You look at it for us now here in the US, how fragmented our foreign policy is. As a matter of fact, we don't even know. We don't have a direction. And I'll say it because I don't shy away from this kind of stuff, you know. It falls within my area that I know a lot about, and I know a great deal about, and I feel comfortable enough saying this. But we don't have a structured foreign policy. We didn't have a structured foreign policy for the last 30 or 40 years. Yeah, that's how bad it is for the United States. That's why we are reacting. And all it is for now aiming at China. It's kind of like, okay, let's take, take, let's take a step back and analyze what is at the heart of all this. And what do you guys think? In your opinion, what do you think is at the heart of the tensions between China and the United it? If you can just type it on the chat room. And like I said, I like to engage you because it's two-way street here. I'm learning from you as well. But the question that comes to my mind is, what do you think is at the heart of these tensions between China and the United States? And again, you have to see the, uh, the big picture of this, uh, moving forward and asking yourself, okay, uh, are we expecting— when I say are we, when I say we, I'm referring to this case of ASEAN because we're talking about ASEAN here. And it would have been the idea of, uh, if I am to be sitting, at least hypothetically, on a, on a, on a ministerial level or presidential level of ASEAN countries, and I'm taking a chair, sitting in the back, just listening to what they're talking about. And the question I'll be asking myself is, are those leaders thinking in terms of, okay, do we need to preposition ourselves before tensions flare up between the US and, and China? You know, the other assumption will be, could it be possibly that the tensions between US and China is a foregone conclusion?, and we need to prepare ourselves for that. This is ASEAN thinking, and I'm just— this is a scenario. So, but the question becomes also within that is, well, how can we, uh, ascertain the reality of such scenario when you have a country like Philippines, when you have a country like Singapore? They are sort of on both sides of the fence. Where do they stand? Is it this way or is it this way? And that is the question that none of us have the answer to yet. We don't. I don't. So that is where I see, uh, uh, I'm trying to see if anybody of you answered that question. Just to see, uh, yeah, politics and geography, that's a good one, Steph. Uh, it's finance and economy. Yes, finance and economics. Always remember this one, guys. Always remember that. And, and you all know that it takes a delay before things appear here, so we're gonna move on with what we need to, to say. So just to go back to my point, the idea of could it be that's what the, those leaders of those countries in ASEAN are thinking And it's logical thinking to, to sort of assume for now before that time comes, because if that happens, or when that happens, certain countries once again like Philippines and Singapore will have to decide where they're going to be standing, which side of the fence they're going to be standing, and that's going to define them for the next 15, 20, 25, 30 years. That's how I see it playing out. This is why I am very concerned about how Philippines is almost like embarking on policies blindly without, without having to think through the consequences of that decision. Adding 4 or allowing 4 more bases in Philippines that, that screams loud, I'm gonna become the target. That's the way I interpret it. That's how I see it. Singapore, in this case, economically, will it be very integrated, well integrated within ASEAN? Because some countries in ASEAN— and this is again me thinking outside the box— might be thinking twice about Can we trust Singapore? It's a logical question, and you can't have emotions with this kind of stuff. I know how great Singapore is, wonderful. I had a colleague who was stationed there, uh, uh, enjoy. I've never been in Singapore. I hope one day to visit, but I heard, and I, I know where to look for information, a wonderful country. But with a, a political decision like this makes me just wonder now, okay, what is behind this decision? What is the reason behind this kind of decisions? So, and for them, for ASEAN as a whole to dump all three or four, the US dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen, and the British pound speaks volume. It's because And, and, and again, and this is my opinion, if I am to guess, the trip of the Prime Minister of Singapore to China is to ensure, or to reassure rather, to reassure China that Singapore will not be a launching pad for the United States in case. That is my thinking. I could be wrong, but that's my thinking. So that's how I see it right now. The Philippines did the same with, uh, Marcos Jr.'s trip, but he wasn't sincere about it because he knew before his trip that he's about to meet with the US Secretary of Defense and be request or be asked to allow access to further basis. So if he knew about it, did he express that to the Chinese when he met with President Xi? And I don't think so. So basically what Marcos was doing— Marcos Jr. doing— is playing both sides again. But that is not a smart policy. I understand about how Philippines is structured. Especially with the control the military has behind closed doors. It's no different than in Pakistan, by the way, uh, they have the same with the ISI. And speaking of Pakistan, what I'm thinking about— Pakistan now is experiencing the highest inflation ever in its history at about 37.3%. Yeah, it's very, very concerning for a country like that. That has the nukes. So, uh, so that's what I see how ASEAN, uh, it's going to be moving forward because, uh, to me it's an indication for what lies ahead. Now there is one more thing I'm going to talk about and I'm going to turn it over to check your questions. And like I always say, guys, if I don't have anything of substance to talk about, I get off the air. I I, I don't waste you because your time is very important to me. You are spending— you're giving up your time to sit here and listen to what I share with you. It means a lot to me. So I better have some good quality information for you, and if I don't, I'll tell you I'm done talking. That's how I operate. So, so the other topic that I want to— not topic, the other theme within the same topic has to do with digital— yes, digital cross-border payment systems. Now, could this become another venue for ASEAN country and ASEAN member, uh, states to use the, the, the local currencies in trade? I will, I will say the rationality and the pragmatism of it, because an agreement on, on, uh on, on such, uh, cooperation, okay, was already reached between Philip— Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, and Thailand. That was back in 2022. And this is exactly what some viewers put the comments that, where they have this before, Dr. O? I said, yes, they did, but not at the same scale what they are talking about. Because this decision is born out of the new reality on the geopolitical landscape. That is the reason why this one for the agreed on the digital cross-border, uh, settlements and the decision to drop the dollar are two opposite things, you know, because this decision that was just discussed on Tuesday, last Tuesday, uh I don't even know what day was that. Let me see the calendar here. Yeah, Tuesday the 28th, March 28th. That decision was made because a re— a reflection of the new geopolitical landscape, a global one that is. Because just look at the patterns. You got Egypt. When did Egypt decided on this? Only about a month, two 2 months ago or so. You look at Saudi Arabia, okay? You look at Iraq, okay? Turkey. You look at Brazil just recently last week, you know. All this should send a signal. India and Bangladesh dumping the dollar, you know. ASEAN— this decision of ASEAN, yes, it has some ties to this, but now you're looking at it from a larger picture. Look at it from the bigger picture. That's why this decision by ASEAN is different than what took place in, in, in 2022. And this is why in Indonesia, in Indonesia especially, because Indonesia, uh, had some really serious financial issues. First of all, corruption. Second, and there were some way back laundering money that we knew about it and that the US used that as a pressure point on Indonesia to toe the line with the US. But now you're seeing this kind of decisions, it's kind of signaling that even Indonesia is, is moving away. I did a video a year ago, a year ago, it's on a record there, when, when I discussed back then Indonesia is about to dump the US dollar, mark my word on it. That was a year ago. I wish I can pull up the link for it. So, uh, and this is what I said, and this comes on the heels of Indonesia's banking system, which stated on March 27th— that was on Monday before this meeting here— that the Bank of Indonesia is preparing now to introduce its own— yeah, get this, guys— its own domestic payment system. Yeah, so they're gonna be having their own. So, and why bother with the rest of the world or, or other, uh, uh, like the SWIFT and so forth? Because countries now kind of waking up to enough is enough. And I'll say it because I don't shy away from this, uh, we have abused our power beyond belief, abused it beyond belief. You know, like I always say, power is a responsibility. And if any of you guys is in possession of power, make sure to use it wisely. Yeah, it's very important to know. So, all right, I am done talking. Let me go check. I'm gonna go all the way to the top and check again to see if there are any questions. And, uh, just before I, uh, I I take a look at that. Be on a lookout for, uh, the two upcoming videos. I'm gonna release one tomorrow, uh, for the members. I always send this to the members first to see it because it's only fair. You all know these guys, but I don't need to beat the dead horse here. But there is the upcoming video about Brazil and China, so it will be soon. And for the members, uh, I will be doing, uh, uh, live Q&A for members and subscribers, live Q&A in which I will answer any questions. Even you can ask me anything you want, ask me anything, you know, of course, whatever I can share with you. I'm a private person, I like my privacy. So anyway, let me put my reading glasses on and we'll take a look, uh, and go all the way to the top. All right, I'm going scrolling down here and I'll, uh, see if there are any questions. And by the way, guys, I do appreciate you, uh, exchanging ideas in a civil manner. I truly appreciate that. And this is one of the reasons why I read your comments. And by the way, make sure, guys, to take a look at those comments. Some of you really spend time writing a post and I read them and they're very informative. So for you guys to learn as well, just because it's not coming from me doesn't mean it has— it has value in it. So, so if you got a chance to take a look at that. All right, let me scroll down. And I'm always open to your suggestions as far as topics because I feel live streams, uh, it's where we can interact here. And as the community is growing bigger And yes, I will have a guest on this channel at some point, so, but, uh, not, not now. All right, let me see any question here. And I'm glad the microphone is working, so Uh, yeah, it's understanding what is going on. Let me see here. All right, let me, let me just share this statement with you guys from Jesus Aguilar. In my opinion, the tensions between the US and China comes down to the US dollar losing its status as premier trading currency. Since the dollar is fiat and not backed by commodity, that's dangerous. That is logical. Uh, I see the, the logic in your statements. It, it makes perfect sense. You know, there is another thing, however, I may just add to your statements, uh, Jesus, is it has to do with we are not able to compete with China because China is moving faster than we can catch up with. That is what's at the heart— so at the heart of the matter also. And when you, a country that is realizing you are not able to compete, what do you do? You embark on some very ill-conceived policies like creating tensions to slow down that country that is moving faster and faster. That is what's at the heart of it. Yeah, trade is part of it, the dollar is part of it, the Taiwan Strait is part of it, but what's at the heart of it all? We did not expect China to move this fast within the last 30 years. That is part also of this, uh, tensions that exist, and we are trying to figure that out by any means, or to slow down that by any means. That is, that is also what's important. All right, let me see here. It's because after this I'm gonna have to go check on the veggies that I planted about a week and a half ago. So, all right, let's see, we got a question from, uh, yeah, why not, let's take it. Sanket, uh, uh, you know, I'm sorry if I mispronounce the name. So anyway, your question, sir, you know, what will be, what will be the options available for Middle East countries like UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, which, which has fixed a local currency to US dollar? That, that's an interesting thing, you know. And again, just for the record, guys, I am not a financial advisor. So, uh, finance is not my wheelhouse. Geopolitics is. But like I always say, the two main elements in geopolitics: economics and finance. So it becomes my responsibility to educate myself on those issues, to understand where the dynamic— so to answer your question is, you are noticing already Gulf states pivoting east because of this reason. They are seeing what's going to be happening to the US dollar, and they don't want to keep everything tied to the dollar. They switching it to the yuan. This is why Qatar, the country of Qatar, signed an agreement with China for 25 years deal of the natural gas. Saudi Arabia now, Iran of course. Then you're going to have soon, you're going to have Oman. Possibly you're going to have Bahrain, Kuwait to a degree, you know. This is what's going to be happening with those countries. Uh, the challenge for mainly Saudi Arabia is because the oil transactions around the world are transacted in the US dollar. That was the deal that the United States cut with way back in the Bretton Woods after World War II. But also after the oil crisis of 1973 and the decision when we moved the gold— when we moved the dollar out of the gold standard in the— in 1970, on July— on August 15th, 1970. That— so now that's coming to an end, and those countries, they are now sort of taking the necessary steps to ensure they are not left behind when that train takes, takes off. In the Saudi case, the challenge, the problem they have is they have a lot of gold here in the United States. So it makes perfect sense for them to get the gold out first before they make the final decision. And Mike, my word on this, geopolitically speaking, the final decision where we're gonna put the nail on the coffin for the US dollar is when the Saudis announce officially they dropping the US dollar from all energy transactions on the global level. For now, they are doing it on a bilateral, like what just happened with Kenya. Saudi Arabia and Kenya is going to be— Kenya is going to be buying oil from, uh, Saudi Arabia, but Kenya will pay in the local currency between the two of them. China and Saudi Arabia. That's why you hear the term petroyuan. But petroyuan is just in the bilateral, not on the global. This is where I see it going. So, ah, let me see another question here. And if I don't have question— oh, Jack! Here is Jack. Good to see you, Jack. Question: France TotalEnergies using the yuan, a message to the US for what it did to France deal? For with Australia, or is the US changing sides? That's very interesting, uh, uh, uh, Jack. And yeah, what, what Jack is referring to is that France just about a week and a half ago decided to pay for about 64,000 tons of LNG, for liquefied natural gas, from China, paying in the Chinese yuan. Yeah, that, that's great thinking, Jack, because you have to think the big picture. Are French sending a message to the US? Oh yeah, we screwed them up over the, the multi-billion dollar deal in the submarine with Australia. That could be one. Second, if President Macron and the president of the European Union, uh, uh, uh, Vanderlane, are going to China. That should be a hint. It should be a hint for what's coming. Is Europe really starting to take baby steps into distancing itself from the US dollar? Uh, it's hard to tell. You can, you can base the judgment on one transaction or one aspect of it. For me, to see this is when I see more countries in the EU that are under the European Union currency are pivoting to the Chinese yuan. If I see this, or when I see this, then I know for a fact the euro or European Union wants to distance itself financially from the United States. So for now I wouldn't reach that conclusion yet, but the possibilities you suggested are on point. That's how I will interpret it. So, all right, I'll do one more question, guys, and I'm gonna head out. Okay, no more questions here. All right, my last question here. Let me see, where is— oh, I just lost it. No, it's right here. There we go. AJ, AJ the Silver Bullet, nice, nice screen name, eh? So question: first of all, I finally looked into you the other day And wow, your, your CV, my resume, impressive. Well, thank you very much. I'm somebody, I like to keep a low profile. That's— this is what pissed me off about those who claiming to be geopolitical analysts when they are salespeople. Yeah, I, I have no tolerance for that. That's so— thank you very much, I appreciate it. And I've seen a lot, I've been, I've been around. I've been around. So, uh, now given the incompetence level of the US admin administration, how likely do you think we will be first to use strategic nukes? Oh, whoa, yeah, we won't. We won't because we know what the consequences of it will be. No country— I, I just don't see it, especially the ones with the nukes now. I don't see any using the, uh, now Russia has in its doctrine, it's called the, uh, ADA2, that's how it's known in the military jargons. And I wrote the book, the Russian book right there, that one there, uh, I detailed this one. Russia has in its doctrine, if its security is threatened, they reserve the right to use nukes. But even with that, even with that, I believe they will Interesting enough, they didn't specify either strategic nukes or tactical nukes. That's so for us, for us, yeah, we are not gonna— because the era of, uh, Hiroshima and Nagasaki and all that time, time has changed now. It's, it's, it's— we're dealing with a different setting. And for us to just think because we have a mighty power, which military, which is going to go and, and drop the nukes No, no, we will pay the price heavily because you got made your country. And who are we gonna drop the, the bomb on? That's the other question. Are we gonna drop the bomb on Russia? Because that will be suicide for us, you know. Are we gonna drop the bomb on China? That will be suicide. So if we are to even do this, and that's why I don't see the strategic one, I'll see the tactical to a degree. You're gonna do whatever country that does not have nukes. And this is why having nukes is deterrence. And I think with this Ukraine crisis now, you're gonna be— or especially what's going on in Asia now, it— Asia is moving into that new armament, new arms race. That is what I see rolling up, coming forward, you know. You know, when you expand your military presence in a country You don't expend it because you want to station just troops. You want also station your advanced systems. And in that case, in that scenario, when Philippines, for example, granted the 4 additional— they are already 9, they added 4— well, what the 4 is going to be? What those 4 bases are going to be for? You know, just put equipment? No, you're gonna put advanced systems there. This is where the problem that Australia now finds itself in. It dug itself in a hole by acquiring this nuclear submarine. So, so, so the short— the answer is no, I don't see us using the, the tactical, uh, this strategic— I'm sorry, uh, uh, nukes first. So Well guys, I hope you find this very informative. I truly enjoyed being on a live stream with you. You're very engaging and I thank you for this. And if this is your first time here, please make sure to subscribe so you help me out with the algorithm. Uh, the channel is growing because of you, because also that's to me what it means. It's your commitment. And it, it's only right and fair of me to put the time and effort, more time, more effort, and bring you accurate information and analysis that you can benefit from. This is not about me sitting in front of a camera here and just talk. This is about sharing knowledge that will be of use to you. Because if I don't have anything of substance, I don't just rumble. I don't do that. So I just want you to know I thank you all. And just a reminder for the members, next week I'll be having live Q&A. I hope you can join me for that. And I look forward to seeing you next time. As always, guys, remember, geopolitics impact your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, guys. Bye-bye.