Asia: The New Global Economic Center! Conversation with Carl Zha! (Part 3)

All right, hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Very, very exciting show for you because I have none other than Carl Zah. He's here, so let me bring him in right away. Hi Carl.

Hi David, how are you?

Good, good, good to see you, man. A lot, a lot of my viewers were waiting for this conversation for us As a matter of fact, they are all in for us to be having a conversation every 2 or 3 weeks. And I told them, I talked to Carl, and Carl is okay with it. I'm okay with it. So why not? Let's share the knowledge with our, our, uh, our community here. So we're very excited to see you all, you guys too, uh, for us, starting from all the way— Willie Holman, good to see you from West Memphis. YT Truth Seeker, Hong Long, good to see you. John Tilly, good to see you. Chanel, losio Delgado, from my neighbor to the north in Canada, thank you, good to see you. All right, let's get into this because we got a lot to cover with Carl, so I'm not gonna waste any time. And by the way, I'll put the link for Carl's bio in the introduction— in the description on the video. You can look up that, that one there, a link along with the link to his YouTube and his channel, of course. So, all right, Carl, let's get on to this by starting talking about one of the events that's going to be unfolding soon. And this one has to do with the Secretary of Treasury, Janet Yellen, that is planning a trip to China. What the heck is she going to China for? Begging for money?

She likes the mushrooms. She wants to go back for more mushrooms. Oh yeah, but, uh, you know, that's exactly what she's gonna do. She's gonna beg for more money because China has been steadily reducing its hold on US Treasuries over the last few years. Japan has replaced China as the top number one holder of US Treasuries. For the past few years. Japan now holds $1.1 trillion worth of US debt, whereas China from end of December 2023 holds about $800 billion.

So $800, somewhere around there.

So Janet Yellen is going to China. It's like, please buy more, please.

And I hope she can eat some mushrooms so she can articulate the argument to the Chinese. Now, on a serious note, Carl, do you think the Chinese will give her money?

Well, I think China will continue its strategy of reducing exposure to US debts because, uh, it— you know, this— China has come to realize they're trading all these industrial goods and manufactured goods to US for a pile of paper, for a bunch of IOUs. And they find better use of that money, of that trade surplus, to invest them into Belt and Road, uh, projects all across the globe. Because that way, uh, you know, by building ports, railroads, roads, power plants all over the world, China is boosting, uh, not only the global connectivity, but also China is boosting the global productivity. So all that, uh, now, now all the US dollars it earns from trade surplus from US can be invested into productive arenas instead of just like sitting in the US Treasury gathering some, some measly interest. Um, it's, it's just a much better return on investment. I, I don't think China will abandon that approach. I mean, Janet Yellen can bow all she wants, but, but China has a very clear National Development Strategy. And they're not— I don't think they're gonna— this is one reason US has been bad-mouthed about China's Belt and Road Project forever, because they call it debt trap, but they're not— never offering any alternatives. And the reason US doesn't like the, the, the, the Belt and Road Initiative, other than the fact that expands the Chinese influence across the globe, is also, uh, that takes That takes more money away from buying US Treasuries and spread it to the rest of the world. So I don't know how— I mean, China will probably entertain Janet with some nice words, more mushroom banquets, but I don't expect much.

So she'll get high a little bit. Well, they do. They really, the Chinese officials, they do kind of sort of respect her. They have— she has an understanding about the Chinese government. I mean, she is not— I mean, she is knowledgeable in her field and she does have an understanding about how Chinese think when it comes down to the finances. But to me, as an analyst, I'm looking at it, well, wait a minute, you badmouthing the country and you are going there to ask for money? What makes you think they're gonna even agree to that? And second, it's very embarrassing because we are living beyond our means.

And the fact, the ironic fact is Janet Yellen is going to China in the same time the U.S. State Department has issued a travel, a level 3 warning for travel to China. So China has been placing on the same category As a country that's experiencing civil war like Ethiopia, then, you know, China is super safe to travel to, but United States Department say no. If you go to China, you might be face arbitrary arrest, you might be disappeared. I mean, this is just ridiculous. They don't want people to see China because they realize if average Americans go to China, they will see through all the propagandas that media is peddling to Yeah, maybe they just, just noticed my application for the Chinese visa.

That's why they issue the warning. I'd be like, not true, don't go. I'm like, no, I will go if I want to go. So, but, but anyway, honestly, it's not really— I kind of don't understand because if we are to look at this, and I know the trip is till next month for Janet Yellen, but I also looking at what China just had with Angola I don't know if you were aware of that, Carl, or not. The deal that— and the US now is saying we will be willing to put about $2 billion investment. How come all of a sudden we're doing this after the Chinese got a deal with Angola? Well, what do you think of that?

US is kind of playing catch-up. I mean, like, now, now they realize they actually have to put money where their mouth is. In term— because, because African leader has been saying this for a long time. When the Chinese come, they offer investment. When the Europeans, American come, they offer us a lecture on how China is bad, we shouldn't do business with China. So, uh, but, but I want to remind the audience, Joe Biden has came out with a similar scheme called the Build Back the World Better.

That, that was Build Back Better.

Build Back Better. Yeah, yeah, yeah, that was from like 3 years ago, man. That was like 3 years. Yeah, what happened to that? What happened?

Well, look at just the bridge, what happened in Baltimore with the bridge, which was embarrassing. Whatever the case might be, now we blaming it on the Russians. It just, uh, it's very ridiculous. So the idea of— I mean, I think because we are watching now that China has forged a very, a solid economic path in Africa. And since we never had any policy towards Africa, now we trying to woo these countries back with money, whatever. But at the same time, this is for you guys to know, Africa is struggling with debt. What the debt— there are those who are saying, oh, it's the China trap. That is not the case. It's the IMF loans that's been given to the— so let's put things in perspective. And this is why we kind of, like Carl said, playing catch-up. It's too late for that. I mean, do you see any change to Africa vis-à-vis the US policy, Carl?

Well, ultimately it's like the Jerry Maguire movie, right? Show me the money!

Show me the money!

Where is the money? I mean, like, US is not putting up the— it has promised investment Africa times and times again, but it just hasn't materialized. Where China is on the ground building roads, building ports, building stadiums, building hospitals, building power plants. And now, like, Many people in Africa can, uh, can afford smartphones because Chinese companies are there, you know, targeting African, uh, African consumers. Like, US corporations are just not interested in Africa other than as a place to extract wealth from, right? Like, the, the only investment US is putting into Africa are just mostly like mining and oil, right? Other than that, they're not interested into investing African infrastructure. Here. This is a big difference between US and China. China is offshoring, uh, you know, manufacturing to places like Ethiopia. Uh, it's— and, and this is, this is not, this is not what US has done. Uh, again, so US can prop— I mean, it's a good thing, it's a good thing that Chinese investment now is in Africa is enough to panic capitals in Europe and Washington. Now they have to compete for influence. Before, you know, they call all the shots through IMF, from through World Bank. And now Africans, because African government, they have another alternative. They can go to China. Um, I mean, if anything, competition is good, right? That's correct.

That's correct. Yeah, because if they have— the Chinese are offering better terms You know, Africa is gonna, it's gonna go directly with that. I mean, I do know that, uh, China renegotiated some of its terms with some African countries recently. I was aware of that, and to me it was very impressive. And I'm not saying it to sort of, uh, support China or whatever. No, no, no, no, no. I'm saying it because it's a pragmatic thing, and to me made more sense for why you want to approach countries down. That's why they want to do business with you. We don't. We shove them into debt and we don't, we don't renegotiate the terms and so forth. So, and this is where I see the difference between the US and China when it comes down to Africa.

So now, this is what the former Greek, uh, finance minister has said when he was giving—

oh, Yanis Varoufakis.

Yes, he said, look, Varoufakis You know, when China, uh, when we have problem with China, we go to them and we ask them to give us a better deal, and they come back and we sit down and we negotiate for a better deal. That's how things are done. But that's just not the way that US and Europe traditionally conduct business, especially not Africa. I mean, he's talking about Greece. I mean, you, I mean, like, yeah, it's traditionally in US, it's either my way or the highway. You are either with us or against us.

Against us, yeah. And, and that era is over. I mean, I've been writing about it, Carl, for the last few years, and believe it or not, I do get pushback from inside because usually some of my articles will have to be cleared by the US government and so forth because of my past history in Washington and so forth. But at the same time, like, I ain't gonna shy away from saying that because it's the truth. And second, the world has changed and we need to change with it. Instead of fighting the Chinese, why not, why not cooperate with the Chinese so it will be win-win for everybody? I mean, most Americans have no clue what lies ahead. So, and this is why I believe the US now is asking behind closed doors, is asking, for example, uh, Niger You know what's going on with Niger and all that. We're asking Niger behind closed doors to keep our bases there, and they said no, no more. So it's over for them.

The funny thing is most Americans don't even know we have troops in Niger. Like, we only find out when, like, couple years ago, when couple, uh, US troops got killed in Niger. It's like, what? What are we doing in Niger? We have troops in Niger? Yes, of course, have this so-called, so-called lily pad strategy. They have like a, a, a mini, mini bases in, in almost all the African countries. And Nigeria is important because they, they, uh, they, I think it was the country, they have a uranium deposit.

They have uranium, yes, yeah, and, and very rich in uranium.

And this is why US want to, want to keep a close eye, uh, But, but all these, like, like you made, uh, you know, uranium is one of the, like, strategic materials that's, uh, concentrated in few places in the world. You know, one place is Russia. Well, US and Europe just cut that source off. And another place is Africa. And then now the Africans say, you know, we're kind of getting tired of you come here and take our, our, our resource they're cheap. I mean, that's why Nigeria is kicking the French out, and now they, they're denying extending lease to American bases. Uh, so I mean, one of the— okay, they still have Australia, but you know, that's, that's not Australia and New Zealand together.

We're not gonna even be talking about South Korea and Japan and Philippines. Those are basket case.

Yeah, yeah, I mean, they're, they're vassal states. They're vassal states. But right now what US is doing, I mean, they're building a wall around themselves. They're building a wall around US, building a— they're trying to build a wall also around the US vassal states of EU and also like Japan and South Korea.

South Korea.

While, while the BRICS countries is powering forward into the 21st century. So I I think, you know, if I don't— I first, I don't know if the US attempt of building this wall and separating the world into two halves will succeed. Uh, I think in their mind they're just doing the Cold War 2.0 because they're like, oh, okay, we, we know how this play out. We know how to— we, we won the Cold War 1.0, you know, when the world was divided into two camps, and we won that time. So we just had to do the same thing again. But I'm sorry, like, back then Soviet Union have a very little contact with the rest of the world. He— now China is— now China is the world's factory. It's, it's at the center of global, uh, manufacturing. You can't, you can't just shut China out. What you're gonna do is you can isolate yourself from the rest of the world, and, and that's increasingly likely if Washington keep on this boneheaded idea of decoupling.

Yeah, which is crazy. Well, this is why I didn't quite understand why Janet Yellen now is going to China, for especially after what she said. And I quote here, US Treasury Secretary said Chinese companies are producing too many batteries, solar panels, and electric vehicles to the detriment of American workers. And that's why she's planning to raise the issue when she visits Beijing next month, end of quote.

Yeah, ridiculous. I read the headline, uh, Janet Yellen says China ramping up industrial production is a threat to— is gonna threaten to disturb the balance in the world. It's like, wait, wait, wait, wait, so what you're really saying is ramping up money printing like what you do at Federal Reserve is good, but ramping up industrial production to produce things people actually use is bad.

It's bad.

You make, you make things cheaper because, you know, like, you know, when China makes more stuff, you, you makes the price come down. So you are saying inflation is actually good, lower price for, for average, for, for average American is actually bad. That's what they're saying right now.

Yeah, that's true. I mean, if you ask any American, they'll tell you, yeah, we like to go to Walmart, we like to go to Target, we like to go to Home Depot. We buy the stuff because we can afford it. Why? It's made in China, you know. And this is the reality. And that's why I kind of, as an American, I feel embarrassed that a Treasury Secretary is behaving in this manner. To me, it shows really we are not in touch with the reality of where the world is is headed. We kind of wanted to live in denial about the current financial status of the world.

The thing is, Janet Yellen, as you say, she's actually a very smart woman. She knows—

she is—

how, like, she's actually very strong in her own field, but she has to speak to, like, different audiences, right? She has to speak to the domestic audience, uh, and, and, like, sometimes she has to cater to all the stupid politicians in Washington. So she have to spend some of her time doing the grandstanding, but it's in total contradiction to what she's actually trying to do, which is to get more money from China while she has to criticize China publicly. I mean, that's not going to make her job easier.

Yeah, well, I, I do have my doubt that the Chinese will agree to extend any, any, any further loans because I just don't I don't see Chinese doing that. I could be wrong, but speaking of— yeah, go ahead, go ahead, Carl.

I mean, it could be— I mean, it could work if it's reciprocal, there's reciprocity. If US agreed to, you know, for example, lift the sanctions, if US agreed to lift the chip sanctions, I'm sure China's okay, sure, we can buy more treasuries. But what right now, what Janet Yellen and her boss in Washington wants to do They want to maintain the high-tech sanctions on China while have China continue to buy US Treasury. Why would China do that? I mean, they want to have the cake and eat it too.

Yeah, you can't have that. That era is gone. Speaking of China, what I'm thinking of— by the way, guys, to those who just joined me here, I'm with Carl Zah. You know, he does not need an introduction. Prepare your question because Carl will be answering some of your questions towards the end. So I see someone here from— by the way, Jules, Jules Leung, good to see you, buddy. Jules Leung, Carl, is one of my avid supporters, been with me since the get-go. And you know, he kind of got busy for a while. I haven't seen him for a while, but we communicate. So good to see you, Jules, and thank you for being here. Now there is one individual here by the name Muhammad Aslam from Pakistan. Good to see you. And the reason I'm mentioning Pakistan, because you heard what happened to the 5 Chinese engineers that were— what do you think of that incident, Carl? Was it a setup? Because I am leaning towards that outcome, because they don't want China to develop that part of Gwadar in Pakistan.

What's your take on this? So, so the whole reason for— so Pakistan is one of the area in the world that China pour a lot of investment for the Belt and Road, uh, project. It's because in particular, this called the, uh, uh, I think it's called CPEC, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Economic Corridor. Corridor.

Yeah, the idea is, um, China will link up Pakistan, will build up the infrastructure that, uh, the Chinese goods can travel through the lens of Pakistan to the port of Gwadar on the Arabian Sea, which is very— Gwadar is strategically located at very close to the mouth of Persian Gulf, to the, to the Strait of Hormuz. And, and so, and it's a, it's a natural port So the idea is, um, China is building a different connection point because the US Navy has been very explicit that they're going to use the Strait of Malacca as a choking point to choke off the energy supply to China in times of war. So what China is doing is they're doing this so-called String of Pearls strategy. It's like, okay, yeah, We're gonna build multiple connection points. We're gonna build a port in Gwadar, we're gonna build a port in Myanmar, and then we're gonna build pipelines and roads and railroad link it to China. So US Navy cannot be at all places at all time. You know, the, the, the strategic location of Strait of Malacca is because currently 80% of China's energy supply have to travel, goes through from the Persian Gulf to Strait of Malacca, up the South China Sea. This is why US is also making trouble in the South China Sea, by the way. It's to show— it's to show China, hey, hey, we can make trouble for you anytime. You know, US keep on saying, oh, China Sea, South China Sea is a very important trade, uh, trade route for the world trade, you know, and this is why we have to protect it. But They don't— what they don't tell you is 80% of the trade going through South China Sea is either to or from China. So US is saying, US Navy is saying, we're going to protect the trade to China from China in the South China Sea. But what they're real— what they're really doing, they're saying, look, we can, we can screw, we can screw with your supply lines. We are— we have a presence in South China Sea. You know, we can always cause trouble for you. We can block the Strait of Malacca. So China says, you know what, okay, okay, we're gonna— that means we can't put all our eggs in one basket. We're gonna have to build alternatives. So this is where Port of Gwadar comes from on Pakistan, uh, because it's a very nice port. It's very close to the Persian Gulf. Uh, China's plan is to build a pipe oil and gas pipeline. So oil tankers can come from Persian Gulf, unload at Port of Gwadar, and the oil and gas can get piped back into China through Pakistan. And, and China is also building roads and railroad links so Chinese manufactured goods can be shipped to Pakistan and from Pakistan, from Port of Gwadar to the rest of the world. That completely bypass South China Sea and Straits of Malacca. So US don't want that. This is not what US want to see. Um, but there, there's also India, because India doesn't want— because India and Pakistan rivalry has gone on since the creation, of course, since the partition, you know, in 1948. So, uh, India don't want to see Pakistan stabilize because all those investment Chinese investment into Pakistan is to help to stabilize Pakistan, to, to, to, to make it— because China prefers stability on its borders. Uh, but that's not something India is interested in. And the, the area they're building, uh, the Gwadar Port, it's, it's an area in Pakistan called Balochistan. And Balochistan had always had like a separatist, uh, movement. And the separatist movement, um, the Balochistan Liberation Army has ties with Indian Intelligence Service, RAW, the Indian Intelligence Service, but also with Americans, you know, because this is where U.S. and Indians might be working together. Um, they're, they're funding the Balochistan Liberation Army as, uh, to keep Pakistan off balance. Because Pakistan is an interesting case because it's a close ally with China, but it's also close with U.S. Because, uh, you know, U.S. during the Cold War used Pakistan as a launching pad, uh, to, to, to counter Soviet Union in Afghanistan. But after Cold War is over, uh, U.S. kind of kicked Pakistan to the curb. It's like, okay, we don't need you, we're done with you, we're done with you. So in that time, that's when China came through for Pakistan, um, offering, uh, both military aid and economic aid. So Pakistan— but Pakistan still maintains ties with US. But this is the way US, um, work with its proxies. It, it, it, it, it wants to have some, some leverage, you know, some leverage to keep them, keep them on the leash And, and, you know, like a state— so a completely stable, independent Pakistan is also not in the US interest. They, they, they have— they want to have certain leverage, and leverage is through these separatist, uh, um, movement, like either the, the Balochistan Liberation Army or the ISIS-K. That's the ISIS Khorasan.

Um, Khorasan, yes.

Yeah, yeah. And, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, um, and also, uh, the so-called Pakistani Taliban. So this, this, this, through these shadowy groups, you know, the US three-letter agencies can, uh, keep Pakistan off balance but also make it dependent on US. Yeah, how US works traditionally. And, and this is also just so happened these groups are also very convenient to leverage against the Chinese interest. I mean, there's a recent, uh, Vice article, and also I think for New York Times reporting on ISIS-K after their, their claimed attack on Russia, on Moscow. Yeah, and ISIS-K, they also have, uh, in the recent years they have made China their primary target. You know, the ISIS-K also target Chinese interests inside Pakistan, Afghanistan, but they also They also now, now the, the ISIS-K is making like liberation of the Uyghurs their top priority. It's, it's very, uh, you know, people can look at this. What have ISIS-K done since October, since, uh, since the conflict in Gaza? ISIS-K did not attack Israel, did not attack US. Instead, ISIS attacked Ah, you froze.

Uh-oh. All right, let me see here. Yeah, sometimes connection, guys, that's all it is. But, uh, yeah, I'm sure Carl will be back here. But anyway, I take this opportunity before Carl come back here just say hi to some of you. Jules, very, very good to see you, man. Uh, Dr. Anat, PM, staying up late. Yes, I am staying up late, Jules. It's because I, you know, for, for the community, uh, Saturday, why not? I'll do it because I don't do much on Sunday morning. So that's what I'm doing here. So, uh, and yes, please hit the like button. I will greatly Appreciate it. And, uh, let me see Carl here. Usually, usually he tweets, he tweets me before, uh, to reset the connection. Let me see a message from him. Uh, no, no message yet, but he, he'll be back. Yeah, it got disconnected, so he'll be back here. Uh, Unless Twitter didn't like the word that Carl was using. But hey, everybody's using this word, so what's, what's the big deal on this? So, uh, anyway, he'll, he'll be back here and we'll, uh, and as I mentioned earlier, I will be doing a live stream on the upcoming trip of Janet Yellen. So, uh, I'll do it next week for you guys. That will just go from there. So All right, let me see if Carl is coming back. Yeah, sometimes. Tamputra, good to see you, Tamputra, as always. Uh, JD, uh, I'll answer a few questions here before Carl comes back. I hear India leaving BRICS. Wow, that will be something. As a matter of fact, uh BRICS will be okay with that because they can replace India with another player, major player, like for example Angola. Angola is an oil producer, by the way. Uh, Nigeria, uh, yeah, here is Carl sending me, uh, sending me a, uh, a Twitter. Yeah. I tell him we'll be here till you log back in. Yeah, he, he log back in. So, uh, Nigeria— I don't see Nigeria will be a good— because a good fit for BRICS right now because of the massive corruption that exists in Nigeria. And the way I say it, yes, other countries have corruption, including my country here. It's a different level of it, whatever. The one I'm talking about here in Nigeria has to do also with the corruption vis-à-vis the energy sector. Why? It's because the energy sector is not controlled by the Nigerian government. Does anybody know who controls the energy sectors in Nigeria? See if you guys can type in this in the chat box. Oh, Yandy, Yandy, I want to say thank you so much for your Super Sticker. Truly appreciate it, and good to see you here. So, uh, let me see if you guys can type in, uh, that is, yeah, who controls the energy? Uh, Q87, uh, Fight Back, you guys got it. BP, Shell, and, uh, ExxonMobil. France, Truth Seeker, that is true. You guys got it. And this is the reason why I'm saying personally, and again, I could be wrong, but the way I see it, seeing how the— how what's going on around the world, Nigeria being in BRICS at this time will not bode well for BRICS as a whole, as an entity. So it better wait till Nigeria figures out if this corruption thing, because Nigeria is an OPEC member, so, and BRICS is going to benefit from that. But BRICS does not— BRICS could not be dealing, or will not want to be dealing with corruption issues. They're already dealing with an issue with India inside. And this is why, for the question that says about hearing that India is going to be leaving BRICS, actually Yeah, I don't see that. I don't see that happening. First of all, because India is a founding member, and second, I don't— believe it or not, guys, I've been looking into the mechanisms by which a member can be dismissed, and I didn't find any. And I'm like, that must be— I don't know. So, and given now you have about 81 countries, yeah, 81 countries are interested in joining BRICS. The upcoming summit in Russia, 2024, in October, it will be a seismic change as far as the membership in BRICS. It will grow beyond. And this is where BRICS, where BRICS will have to be careful as to how far to expand and who they're gonna allow in. They don't want to run into risk of having dead weight. Like I said, they already dealing with India And again, I don't shy away from saying this: India does not belong to BRICS. Yes, it is a founding member, but that's, that's how it is. And the way I see it, because India is going to be holding back the progress of BRICS moving forward. If BRICS wants to play a major role on the global stage, competing with the EU or G20 or even ASEAN for that matter, but I see the cooperation between ASEAN and BRICS getting closer. But again, I will be worrying about Philippines, you know, Singapore to a degree, but Philippines I will be concerned about because Philippines now showed its face, true face. When I say Philippines, we're referring to the government, Marcos Jr., that is. So, uh, you can't trust the guy, you can't count on him, uh, you, you can't— no matter shakes hand with Asian countries I don't think so he means it. When you shake hand, you better mean it. And I don't think so Marcos Jr. means it because his asset, his family assets are tied in the US. So he's under the US thumb for the US to decide whatever they want to do with him. And this is, in my opinion, why the agreement between Philippines and the US regarding the establishment of those 5 bases additional 5 bases. They weren't 5, they were 9. 5 declared and 4 not declared. And the 4th one, as a former military, I can tell you that probably is going to host some weapons that even Filipino people, uh, Filipino governments will not even be aware of or will not know about. That is what, what the way I see it, including some nukes. I won't be surprised, but they won't disclose that one. And this is why the US is volunt— or US is already make it clear they want to build the nuclear power plant for the Philippines, because Philippines is talking with, with Thailand about this. Well, the common sense question is, can they afford it? Who's going to pay for it? You all know how the economy in Philippines, you all know how the economy in Thailand You know, Thailand is slightly better than the Philippines, but building a nuclear power plant is no easy task. It costs a lot of money because the management of it. Japan with its Daiichi Fukushima, yeah, Japan has more money than Philippines, but Philippines is very, very different. Alice Yang Sun, as far as Mexico and Venezuela, you're right, you know, Mexico can play a role, Venezuela can play a role in this, but we're already hearing what the US is going to do to the EV, the electric vehicles, the Chinese in China, in Mexico, if they come to the US by imposing 100% tariffs. Where is the competition in free capitalism system? You know, why should I buy an electric car here for $75,000 versus one that the Chinese providing for $30,000 that is top, top, top of the line? So, and right there it gives you an idea. It's because the West is seeing, is seeing that the change that is taking place, it's not to its favor. China's moving forward whether we like it or not. I've been saying this for the last 5 years. Whether we like it or not, China is moving forward. It is ascending to a global power position. You know, I know some here in the US saying, well, I am being paid by the Chinese government, which is ridiculous. It's what, what you do, you forgive them, you forgive them. So, so you're absolutely correct, uh, Alice, uh, Mexico and Venezuela could play a role. Mexico also produce oil, not the same capacity as Venezuela. Uh, for Venezuela, in addition to oil, they have their own gold that is frozen in England. Well, the UK needs to return that gold to, uh, Venezuela. Same thing, the gold that belongs to India, uh, UK needs to return that kind of stuff. And this is why some countries are now taking their gold out of the US. Quietly. You know, we don't hear, you know, Americans will not hear much about all this because they don't— average American doesn't think in these terms. It's not like you guys, and I'm not putting down my fellow countrymen here. No, it's the truth. They, they don't want to think because thinking is hard or requires effort. They don't want that. That's why they get sucked in into the idiot box watching soap operas, whatever they watching, they're not going to know. So they won't understand all this stuff here. And this is what I'm saying, the changes that's taking place on the global stage, it's a— it's a— to me, it's a fait accompli, whether we like it or not. So that's just how I see it. So, and the idea of, uh, uh— oh, Aziz, good to see you, Aziz. Uh, the idea of where this is moving forward, well, so it's, it's, uh, in, in the case of BRICS, yeah, with India. In the case of ASEAN, with the Philippines. Uh, for Singapore, uh, even though, uh, one of you guys, I forget the name, and pardon me for this, uh, sent me a comment saying that Singapore has one of the best anti-corruption agencies. Do you guys agree with that assessment? For those who are familiar with Singapore, does Singapore has a good anti-corruption agency? If you will be kind, please just say yes or no. Oh, Carl is not able to make it. Oh man, bummer. That's, that's all right. I'll, I'll link up with him tomorrow. Then we'll reschedule this for another day, but that's not a problem. So I'm here, I'll share stuff with you quickly here, uh, for whatever, then, then we keep going. Uh, uh, Shaz, you said yes. Core Blemi, you said no. J, you say many developing countries aspire to join BRICS hoping to gain benefits. However, they must also remember to offer something in return. I couldn't agree more. You know, oh, here is Carl. Carl is back. Here it is.

Good to see you, man. Good to see you.

You know, I told him, I told them you'll be back, you'll be back, no worries. So, so, all right, let's pick up where we left off. I was talking to the community about the role of India in BRICS, the role of Philippines in ASEAN, because to me there's two countries in both blocs I look at them as a weak link. They're dragging the entities down. And one of the individuals put a question saying that I heard that India might be leaving BRICS. That would be good.

I, um, okay, can you, can you hear me? It looks like—

yes, yes, I can hear you, but your screen is frozen. But that's okay, I can hear you.

Okay, great. So the Philippines is an interesting case because among all the Southeast Asian countries, uh, Philippines is the only one that did not, uh, have a favorable view of China's Belt and Road Initiative. Um, because China's investment in all— almost all the Southeast Asian countries dwarfs the US investment, with exception of the Philippines, because after Bongbong Marcos has come to power, he rolled back a lot of the, uh, signed joint project with China in the Philippines. So all the— a lot of the Chinese projects in Philippines are on hold right now. And, and as we know, Bongbong Marcos' dad, Ferdinand Marcos, you know, gathered billions, literally hundreds of billions of corrupt money, you know, he extracted from the Philippines and stashed in the offshore account. And those accounts are controlled by the US. US has froze those accounts. And, and, uh, so, you know, if Bongbong Marcos ever hope to get hands— his hands on his dad's money, or really the Filipinos' money, um, you know, he has to get the go-ahead from US. So US, I think US made him an offer he couldn't refuse. And you know, if you want, if you want money, if you want your dad's corrupt money, you have to, you have to do what we say. So, so Philippines has now fully aligned itself with the US in the region, and this including restarting the South China Sea tensions with China. Now South China Sea was mostly, you know, between China and Philippines were mostly okay during Duterte's, uh, uh, uh, term because Duterte's whole, his whole foreign policy was to pivot away from the United States and toward China and Russia. And, and, and so, so during that time, China-Philippine ties were mostly friendly. And Bongbong Marcos, you know, during the election, he because, uh, Duterte cannot serve, uh, he can only serve maximum 2 terms. He cannot run another term. So Bongbong Marcos, to reassure Duterte and his faction, he said, yeah, yeah, well, I'm gonna keep your policy, I'm gonna, um, and, and he, in fact, right after Bongbong Marcos got elected, he actually went to China and meet with Xi Jinping until, you know, until U.S. made a, made him an offer he couldn't refuse. You know, he went to Washington, totally signed on Washington's anti-China crusade. Now, now Philippines is a cat's paw in, um, in for U.S. military to extend its influence in South China Sea. Now they're talking about, they're now they're talking about sending U.S. Coast Guard, U.S. Coast Guard to the South China Sea. I mean, I don't know what they're gonna do, a U.S. Coast Guard gonna do in South China Sea. Maybe they can engage in water cannon fights against the Chinese Coast Guard, uh, but they will lose. They will lose because the Chinese Coast Guard ships are much, much larger than anything U.S. Coast Guard ship, uh, Coast Guard has in stock. So, um, you know, that's why Blinken was in the Philippines recently, uh, saying that U.S. has ironclad commitment to the U.S.-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty, and he said that includes South China Sea. Now this is actually a new development because when U.S. and Philippines signed the Mutual Defense Treaty in 1951, um, they— that, that the commitment for, for U.S. is to the Filipino sovereign territory, and this was defined in the 1898 Treaty of Paris when, uh, after the Spanish-American War, US have, uh, took, took Spain as a colony from, from Spain. And the, the Filipino territory was defined in the 1898 Treaty of Paris, which did not include the South China Sea. And, and the Filipino claim to the South China Sea actually dating 1970s, you know, way after 1951 US-Filipino Defense Treaty. So, so the Blinken statement and the new statement from US State Department now is it basically extending the US-Filipino Mutual Defense Treaty to cover the South China Sea, to cover this new claim that happened after 1972. Now this kind of— this is very dangerous, but But I don't think U.S. will do much in that front because U.S. have essentially 3 options. They can send the U.S. Coast Guard in to, to engage in water cannon fights against Chinese— what, Chinese Coast Guard? But like I said, they're gonna get their ass kicked because the Chinese Coast Guard ship is much, much bigger. So that's not a real good option. Option number 2, U.S. can send the Navy— U.S. Navy. They can they can send the Navy— they can bring the gun to a water fight, water cannon fight. And but if the US Navy fire a missile at the Chinese Coast Guard, that, that means war, that, that means World War III and nuclear exchange and all that. So that's option number 2. Now option number 3 is US will make a lot of noise about Chinese aggressions outside China Sea. US will send its reporters from CNN, Wall Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, whatever, to on the Filipino ships to, to make— take a lot of film footages and say, oh, look, look at, look at the aggressive Chinese behavior in South China Sea by water cannoning, uh, the Filipino ships, and use that as an excuse, an opportunity to redeploy U.S. troops to the Philippines. Because let's remember, U.S. military has been kicked out of the Philippines after 1990s. Um, because, you know, they're just— they just bring crime and prostitution to the Subic Naval Base and Clark Air Base. And, and U.S. didn't want to pay because Philippine Department says this is a— create a huge burden on us, you need to pay more. And U.S. didn't want to pay, so, so they got kicked out. And but now U.S. want to come back through a back— use this tension as a back door for to funnel U.S. military back to the Philippines. Now they have an agreement to put U.S. military on 9 Filipino bases facing South China Sea and facing Taiwan. Um, so in the meantime, U.S. will verbally voice their support for the Philippines, but yeah, what in actuality, they're just pumping out a lot of propaganda against China and then deploy a lot of their military asset to the Philippines, but not actually helping Philippines in, in terms of enforcing the Filipino claim. So I think that is the most likely scenario. Well, you know, I think that's what's happening right now. Um, the goal is not necessarily start a war, but increasing tensions so the U.S. can continue to sell weapons, they continue to reinforce its military posture in justify its military presence in East Asia. I think that's, that's the main US goal. But what did— what does Philippines gain out of this? Well, Bongbong Marcos might see some of the money. I mean, that's, that's what the Philippines getting out of it.

Good luck with that.

Yeah, I mean, how does that filter— how does that filter down to average Filipinos? I don't know.

No. Yeah, this is the same arrangements that we see with South Korea and Japan, especially when it comes down to Japan in Okinawa. You know, they've been arguing forever about the US to leave. As a matter of fact, I remember having a conversation with Dr. Hammond, Ken Hammond. He's a, he's a Chinese historian specialist. I don't know if you know Ken, Dr. Hammond.

I think I heard of the name.

Yeah, a very, very, very knowledgeable guy. Well, he and I would talk and because his specialty is about China from the 14th century all the way to the 18th, so he has a solid grasp of— and I asked him point blank, I said, "Ken, what about Okinawa?" He said, "Yeah, Okinawa was never Japanese, historically speaking." So, and of course I was floored when I heard that because it It was the first time I heard that. Most of the historical records that I read here in the US, including the Library of Congress, says otherwise. And here is somebody—

actually, United States had a treaty with the Kingdom of Ryukyu, or Kingdom of Ryukyu. This was signed by Commodore Perry when he first sailed to Japan. He stopped by the Kingdom of Ryukyu on Okinawa, and he signed a treaty This treaty is still preserved in US. This shows that Luchu Kingdom, or Kingdom of Ryukyu if you use a Japanese pronunciation, was an independent sovereign nation at that time. Oh, it was only later annexed by Empire of Japan. And, and during 19— uh, so, so US occupied Okinawa, um, after World War II, after horrendous Battle of Okinawa in which the Japanese military forced a quarter of the inhabitants to commit suicide. They forced— this is like a real genocide. They, they say, okay, we don't want you to surrender to Americans, so you got to die for, for the emperor. So they forced one-fourth of the civil— the Japanese military forced one-fourth of the civilian population to commit suicide. And, and, and then in, um, but U.S. had basically occupied Okinawa after World War II, um, but in 1970s, uh, so U.S. offered the local inhabitants a, a couple choices. One, they will return, continue to be governed like a, a, basically a colony of the US, or they can be, uh, returned to Japan. And so at that time, the locals, they thought if Okinawa is returned to Japan, uh, they will get rid of the US military. That, that's what they, they believe. Yeah, okay, maybe if the island is Japan, at least we get rid of the US military, which we had to deal with for like since World War II. So at that time, they opted for return to Japan. So, so, but even after, after Okinawa's return to Japan, the Japanese government, they don't want American— any more American military on the Japanese main islands. They say, you know, you know what, Okinawans, you guys have to take one for the team. We don't want— we don't want Americans on the main islands, so we're going to stick most of them on you. So essentially, the Japanese government didn't really treat the local Okinawans as— no, as they're treating them as second-class Japanese citizens, essentially. They say, okay, you have to— so year after year, the people in Okinawa voted, uh, to get rid of the American base. Like, majority of the Okinawans do not want American military presence there. However, the Japanese government continually overruling them because they don't want American bases on mainland Japan. They don't want them in Tokyo, so they want to stick them in Okinawa. So this is a major tension right now on Okinawa, is most people don't want US military bases because US military bases bring crime. They bring crime. And that's the— and, and, and they're, they're literally killing people because the The, the US, um, that, that, that, uh, um, that helicopter— what's that thing called? Osprey. Osprey. They crash all the time on Okinawa and, and killing, killing locals. So they want the military base off, off the island, uh, because, you know, the, the strategic position of Okinawa, kind of half sitting between Japan, Korea, China, and Southeast Asia. Historically, it was a trading nation. It prospered as a trading nation, as a middleway point for trade. It wants to return to its historical place as the, you know, the hub of trade connecting to all those places. It doesn't want to be a US military base, but right now US military base occupy their most productive, you know, most of the area in on the island. And, uh, and, and so, yeah, so, so, and And, and, you know, when you raise the issue, you know, some Americans will say, well, but the Japanese want us to be there. But that's the thing, the Okinawans, they don't want you to be there.

Yeah, well, most Americans do not know the history of Okinawa to begin with. And now, speaking of Japan, when I'm thinking about it, now NATO is going to open an office in Tokyo. So that begs the question, what the heck is NATO? Going to do in Japan? That's the North Atlantic Treaty. What is he doing in Asia?

US is desperate. US is forming all— first they had the Quad, right, which is Japan, US, Australia, India.

India.

But that was apparently not enough, so US have to come up with AUKUS, you know, US, Australia, and, and, and, and UK. What the hell is UK doing in East Asia? I mean, you, you, you— Hong Kong is— hasn't been UK since 1997, right? I mean, like, what the hell is UK going to do in Asia Pacific? Uh, they, they don't even have a real— like, Royal Navy flagship, uh, HMS Elizabeth was, was barely afloat. They have to cannibalize HMS Prince of Wales to keep the HMS a little bit afloat, and then Elizabeth broke down, had to send back to port for repair. And while it's in port for repair, it caught fire. So this is the state of Royal Navy right now. And, and so they want to deploy Royal Navy to the South China Sea, um, and so apparently that's not enough. So now they're talking about NATO pivoting to Asia. I mean, and this is What the hell is, uh, I mean, what the hell is Europe's security interest in Asia, in Pacific? Uh, you know, this is, this is ridiculous. I mean, the real interest of Europe, if at all, in East Asia Pacific is trade. You know, it is trade. It's not, not military. Uh, but they're, they're just here because U.S. want them, because U.S. have realized that US alone might not be able to contain China. So he's trying to loop in all his vassal states to join in on the effort. Um, and that's why you have NATO, you have Japan, you have Korea. Uh, they're, they're all getting beaten in line by Washington to, to form this anti-China alliance. Uh, but I don't think it's, uh, it, uh, it's gonna succeed. I mean, I mean, this is— yeah, speak of Japan, they are losing— so they're losing the Chinese auto market right now. The, the, the, the, the, the, the Chinese EV maker BYD, uh, the head of BYD has specifically said he's gonna— him and the BYD is gonna liberate the Chinese market from the Japanese brands. It's already happening. Wow. Because Japan— Japanese automaker just 2 years ago had about 28% of the Chinese car market, and now it's already down to like 15% in a matter of 2 years. 2 years. Toyota, they just lost, uh, their sales in China fell, uh, 36%. In, in, in February. 36%. That's one-third of their sales. And Toyota's sale was still going up in North America and Europe. It went up like 16% in, in Europe and 14% in, in North America. But the fall in Chinese market is so large that their total sale global fall by 7% because China is the world's largest car market for that. Yeah. And, and the Chinese EV, you know, they're actually not necessarily competing with Tesla. They're actually cannibalizing the ICE, the, the traditional internal combustion engine car makers market. You know, now they have all these, uh, people who do like China bad videos. They show like tons of cars sitting in China unsold. A lot of these cars actually internal combustion engine cars, because in, uh, in, in, in, in March, in this month, China's new auto sale, 48% of new China auto sale is electric cars, is EV. 48%, that's almost like half of the new cars sold is in EV. So that's, that is a future. That's a, you know, because That the, the Chinese market is where the money is. That's the world's largest market. And, and I think Japan— Japanese automaker is looking like they're gonna go, go the way of, um, of the Korean automaker in, in China, because the Korean automaker already— they're, they're— they already couldn't compete anymore in the Chinese market. And I think Toyota is going to follow their steps because at the current rate they're going, um, so yeah, so, so I mean, this is maybe one reason, you know, in places like Japan and Korea, they have a lot of anxiety and a lot of anxiety about being outcompeted, uh, by China. And at the same time, they're getting a lot of pressure from Washington to join this kind of anti-China alliance. This is my take.

Very, very interesting. Let me say thank you quickly here to Evan. Thank you so much for your Super Sticker, truly appreciate it. So, uh, how about if we talk about Hong Kong, Carl? What do you think from, uh, your perspective on the reaction to Hong Kong, the 23rd Article? I mean, if any of us in the West knew the history of how Hong Kong was treated by the UK. They weren't treating them nicely, and most in the West do not know.

People— I mean, these pundits in the West, they just have to make peace with the fact that Hong Kong is Chinese now. It has been Chinese since 1997.

1997.

Yep. I mean, this is The, the thing is, uh, yeah, you know, like they talk about Chinese crackers. Have you guys— many of them don't even aware what happened in Hong Kong, you say, in 1960s when, when UK have deployed troops. Yes, Hong Kong, I remember, uh, to put down the riots. And, and this is, you know, this is the contrast to 2019 when there's a lot of rumors about the People's Liberation Army is gonna send tanks to Hong Kong, it's going to be a Tiananmen 2.0. None of that happened, you know. China just let Hong Kong police to handle it, and the, the PLA stay in their barracks in Hong Kong. Um, that was not the case in 1960 when you actually have, uh, UK deployed troops with their bayonets patrolling Hong Kong. Yeah, and, and, and people were actually killed back then. Um, and so, so, but at the end of the day, people just have to realize Hong Kong is Chinese now. They're just like— the thing is, Hong Kong, with Hong Kong, is that because it's a history as a British colony after Opium War, uh, till 1997, during the whole Cold War period, Hong Kong was a forefront, was a front line of the Cold War. It was crawling with all the intelligence services you know, MI6, CIA, everybody. And, you know, you get like the intelligence services from Taiwan, you know, everybody was in Hong Kong. And after the handover in 1997, the Chinese government largely have tolerated, uh, you know, you know, they let things run as is in Hong Kong largely. But in 2019 I think that's when— see, all the three-letter intel, there are the three-letter agencies, they throw— they, they have like put all their assets on the line to destabilize Hong Kong and China. And after that, China says, you know what, this is, this is not acceptable, we're gonna clean house. And this is why they came out first with the National Security Law, Article 21, Article 2023. I mean, this is all to, to kind of purge all that, all these, uh, legacy of the Cold War from Hong Kong, uh, so to speak. I mean, this is why you see, uh, our, uh, Radio Free Asia, which is a cutout, which is a CIA cutout, they, they have officially announced they're closing shop in Hong Kong, right? Because they're, they're not going to be able to operate Yeah, they're not going to be operating anymore under Article 23. And this is why you are seeing a lot of people upset in the mainstream media in the West, because Hong Kong is no longer a playground for all the spooks from everywhere anymore.

And I did see the images of those who've been arrested that conducted the riots or demonstrations or whatever. Those. And they were— I tell you, uh, uh, the signs that I saw, uh, uh, the, the what the Chinese were telling them in Chinese, because I read the translation, like traitors per se. And, and they were, they were arrested. So they're showing them for— yeah, I want to take, uh, one more other aspect before we open it for questions here. So now there is a conversation that the US is saying And this is, by the way, Hong Wong also said this as a question. The US is saying that Arunachal Pradesh is now part of India. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa! What's your take on this?

So, so US decided to involve itself in all the territorial dispute all around China, right? And China actually So South China Sea, that's a maritime dispute, maritime dispute. China actually settled its land border dispute with all the countries except India and Bhutan. And, and Bhutan is because India controls Bhutan, controls it. Yeah, so, so basically India is the only one, uh, only one standing that has a land border dispute dispute with China. China even settled its land border— no, China settled its land border dispute with Vietnam and with Russia, with Tajikistan, uh, in the 2000s. In the 2000s. So, so it's been 20 years. Um, yeah, but, but India is the one that's— it's the one that, that's sticking out. Yeah, because China actually, back in 1950, Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai has offered a deal, a compromise deal. So like, okay, you claim some of our land, we claim some of the, the land you control. So why don't we do a swap? Why don't we give up on our claims on each other's controlled territory and demarcate the current, the Line of Actual Control, as the international border? So very reasonable. I mean, like, China would have give up the claim of what now India calls Arunachal Pradesh in return for India giving up the claim, uh, in Aksai Chin. Um, and, and at that time, India rejected, rejected. The reason India rejected this compromise proposal is is because, um, you know, the, the, okay, the whole India-China border dispute is a legacy of British colonialism, uh, because the British India, they, the officers of British India, they drew a map, they drew a line on the map and says this is a new border now. And, and, and the, especially when a, a particular guy called Henry McMahon, he he went to— he went to the Tibet-India border and he said he realized, wow, there's a section of Tibet that's south of the Himalayas. And there's like— he's like, okay, okay, that's not— that's, that's not acceptable. Because at that time, British was engaged in this Great Game against the Tsarist Russia for influence in Central Asia. And, and British have this perennial fear that Russia is going come down south and take up— take India away from them. And India for British— India for British was their precious— my precious— nobody can get a hand on my India. So they want to carve up as much, uh, buffer territory as possible. And that, that's when they created the Wakhan Corridor in Afghanistan, uh, you know. Yes, people look at the map of Afghanistan, there's a very narrow strip called Wakhan Corridor that separates Tajikistan and Kashmir, and that was created to separate Russia from British India. And so similarly, they wanted to, um, expand their influence into Tibet, uh, but they also want to get more territory under their control. So they're looking to demarcate the border. And, and Henry McMahon, when he realized there was a portion of Tibet that's south of Himalaya borders. He's like, oh my God, that's not, not, that's not acceptable because we need to have the high ground, you know. If the Russian somehow comes through Tibet, they will be able to like come down to India and take, take our India away from us. So he decided to unilaterally draw a line. This line will be known as McMahon Line. That, that will cut instead of the traditional boundary, it goes across a crest of the Himalaya Mountains. So we'll leave this portion of Tibet that was south of Himalayas as part of British India. Uh, except the British, they— after they drew a line, they never enforced it. They, they just, they just published the map, and, and then they went to— because the British— the, the Tibetan government, uh, from Lhasa still administered the land south of the, south of the Himalayas. And then, uh, In 19— um, uh, and then in 1930s during the World War II when Japan launched the invasion of China, that's when, when, uh, British got nervous again. And, and British is afraid that somehow Japan is going to come over and take over Tibet and threaten India. So they're like, okay, okay. Then they went to their archive They dug out this— dust out this map they drew from like from the 9th— from the, from the early 20th century. This like, oh, okay, we have a claim line right here, let's enforce our claim. So that's— so in 19, um, 19— from 1930 to 1947, that's when the British finally sent troops, British Indian Police, to that, uh, to that area to enforce their They kick out the Tibetan government representatives. And so this is a legacy of colonialism. And, and, and, and the, the, the, the thing is, when China, um, resolved its border dispute with Myanmar, it inherited the same problem. Because when, you know, British control Myanmar as part of British India, you also unilaterally drew a lot of line and had a lot of dispute with China. But China said, okay, we understand this is a legacy of colonialism, but we want to have a, a developed friendly relationship with our neighbors, so we're not going to let this border dispute stand in the way. So, so in the end, China says, yes, this was— this border, this colonial border was a result of unequal treaty from the past, but we're willing to accept it. So, so China accepted the McMahon Line on the, uh, between the border of China and, and Myanmar. So this negotiation happened before the border negotiation with India. The Indian government, they thought, okay, we knew China's bottom line. China is— China is— they already get, uh, recognized McMahon Line on their border with Myanmar, so they're probably gonna recognize McMahon Line on the border with us. So we— but we're still gonna stick by our claim. Uh, yeah, on, on the western sector. So there's no give and take. And then, then the border negotiation broke down, and then that eventually led to the border war in 1962. So, so because of that, China never recognized, uh, this Indian occupied territory south of, uh, Himalayas as Indian territory. So this origin of dispute. But again, unite— what does this have to do with United States? Why is US inserting itself into— I mean, US is doing this, of course, to contain China. This is how US— of course, yeah, India into, you know, Quad, how to its own US-led alliance against China. But India is, um, is an interesting case because India is not exactly like Korea, Japan, or, or the Philippines. India is not, um, like a vassal state. India sees itself as a great power. It sees itself as inheritor of an ancient civilization. It sees itself as entitled to be a great power, just like China is. But at the same time, they're playing, uh, they're playing for India's interest, and they believe they're getting a better deal from US, if they align with US against China. But at the same time, they maintain, they maintain friendly relationship with Russia because India has a traditional friendship with Soviet Union. Um, so because India needs weapons, India, India, their domestic, um, their domestic manufacturing just not up to par. They need to purchase weapon from either Russia or from the West and, and align, align themselves with is US against China allows them to access Western technology, you know, the Western military technology. And, uh, and, and this is, you know, US also talked about investing in nuclear reactors in India, I believe. And so, so this is a way they want to maximize the advantage for themselves by kind of straddling between the BRICS and the, and the West and they get the best of the deal from the both sides. I think that's India's game in this. And India relationship with China, they will never go to a full-blown war with China. But the border dispute is— the reason I say they will never go to a full-blown war with China is because India-China had this border dispute for like forever, for like 70 years. But they actually had a protocol Protocol says neither side will use firearm in the dispute. So when we see the fights, they're always fighting with sticks and stones, each other bashing each other with bricks and sticks. And they're not using guns because neither side want to escalate. You know, both sides are nuclear powers, they don't want to escalate in a full-scale war. So the border— but, but the border tension itself itself is useful in India. For, for Indian military, it's a, it's a way to get, to get increased budget for the Indian military. You know, anytime they want more spending, just pointing to the border issue with China, like, we need to, we need to cut, defend against China, we need more, more budget. For Indian politicians, for both sides of the politicians, you know, both the Modi BJP and also the Congress in opposition. The opposition will say you are not doing enough to counter China, you know, the ruling party is not doing enough. And the, the Congress, the Modi is like, look, look, we are, we are being tough on China, we're flexing on China. So this is a— this is an election issue. So whenever like India has an election, you're gonna see the border tension flare up. Like it's, it's like a almost pure, almost periodically coincides with the Indian election cycle. Um, and so the border issue is continue to fester between India and China. Uh, you're gonna, uh, you know, create tensions. U.S., of course, encouraged that. U.S., they already taught— they, they have been open, pretty open about U.S. providing satellite intelligence to the Indian side on the, on the dispute. And so the tension unfortunately will keep going for a while because there's vested interest on the Indian side to keep it going, and there's, you know, Washington also is encouraging it. Uh, but the two sides are not gonna, you know, this is not gonna go develop into a full-blown war. I mean, same kind of situation in South China Sea and over Taiwan Strait right now. The tension will be kind of stoked, but yeah, people, they will back away for actual full-blown war. This is my, my, my take.

But, but at the end, India will be holding the end of the stick, in my opinion. Here is, here is where I see it problematic, Carl, is that India is part of BRICS. China is in BRICS. Well, you would think if this border issue can be resolved, that's problematic. It sends the wrong message to the rest of the world as far as the economic block.

Well, see, the thing is that BRICS originally, it's an economic alliance. It's not a military alliance, right? It's not a— yeah, it's an economic, uh, alliance. Um, but yeah, India itself, it's, it's a very wary of allowing, uh, Chinese businesses and Chinese investment into India because they feel that, uh, they they're scared of a Chinese takeover. Um, I mean, India always run a very protective, uh, protectionist policy, trade policy. Um, this is why, um, China on the other hand is very much like to invest in India because India has a growing population. It's, you know, one-fifth of the world population live in India. India's economy is still growing. For a while before the border tension flared up recently, China was the largest— Chinese companies was largest investor into the Indian tech startups. But, but the problem is, uh, Chinese money into Indian tech startup threatened certain Indian oligarchs. You know, like India is kind of in, in this way India is similar to United States. You know, India has a bunch of oligarchs who control key industries. You know, Ambani, for example, they're, they're the main backer, financial backer for Modi. Uh, Ambani, they have, uh, they have monopoly. They're expanding their monopoly into, um, into tech, and they don't want to see all these Chinese finance Indian startups to compete with them. And so, so they also have an interest to keep the Chinese competition out. And this is, this is what led to the Indian ban on TikTok after the border tension. Um, and, and after Chinese ban on TikTok, on Bani, they went to work with Zuckerberg of Facebook to form this, uh, yes, yes, the joint venture called Jio. And so basically what it is, is they create a wrapper. Like, Facebook provides a core platform and Jio is just an Indian wrapper on top of that. But this allowed them to gain a monopoly in the Indian social media space, you know, because they can't compete with TikTok. I mean, this is why US is trying to ban TikTok right now, is because Facebook and Google can't compete. But, but India was a little bit step ahead of the game. They ban TikTok so they can have the Indian market to themselves in cahoots with Facebook. Um, but that, that's how—

but also, but also, also, Carl, also, Carl, because the US pressured India, you know, they pressured them for the 5G, the— when Huawei was about to do the— yeah, it was the US that pressured India, and India got scared because they were scared of the sanctions. So they said to the Chinese Huawei company, No, we're not going to allow 5G here because it's not going to work, whatever. I mean, they were scared. They couldn't take stand on that. So to me, that says the story right there.

David, this is another reason the West and its client states is going to be left behind in technology because US still— where's the 5G in US? You know, where's the 5G rollout? China is already moving on to 6G, you know, and like And the US is kind of stuck in this techno limbo because they, they want— they're dead set against blocking out, you know, Chinese influence. Um, so, so a lot of the Chinese— a lot of the US and its vassal states, including UK, they're gonna, they're gonna fall behind, yeah, further and further behind. And they're gonna become like a, like, uh, it's gonna be like the techno feudalism in the West. That's what I call it, the techno-feudalism by, by few oligarchic, uh, firms like Facebook and, and Google, and who are all closely embedded with the national security, uh, the national security and military-industrial intelligence complex.

Wow, wow. Yeah, I don't see, I don't see things gonna bode well for India towards the end anyway, one way or another. So, uh, I gotta ask you two quick questions here before I open it for the, for the, for the, uh, uh, community to ask a few questions. Uh, Indonesia— why did Indonesia want to hit on both the F-15s from the US instead of, uh, the, let's say, the J-20 from China? What the heck?

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, India— Indonesian military has a traditional close tie with US. US, I mean, this, this, this dates to like way, way before the Cold War. And I mean, that's how US kind of able to help Indonesian dictator Suharto to launch the coup, uh, in 1965 to, uh, to take over the country. I mean, to purge the communist and the union organizers and all that. And, and, and so the, the tight— Indonesia in this, in this aspect is similar to the Philippines, just like the Filipino military is very closely tied with the U.S. military. Um, so, so this is one reason why we— because, because of the close, uh, tie with the military establishment. And, and, uh, and, and military hardware is one of those things that binds country together with, uh, with U.S. Because once you sell F-15s, you have to send your pilots for training to U.S., right? That kind of is— that kind of relationship gets maintained. That's how the relationship gets maintained. And, and this is why, uh, when César Chávez came to power in Venezuela, he's like, we're not gonna buy U.S. jets anymore, we're gonna buy Russian jets. And, and, and so because, because it kind of shifts the, the alignment in your military. Uh, but, but Indonesia is where— is— but Indonesia economically is very much aligned with China at this point, you know. In Chinese investment into Indonesia dwarf, you know, it's U.S. investments.

Of course.

Yeah, BYD is opening a new factory in Indonesia to, to manufacture electric cars. Yeah, so, so Indonesia, they will— they're continually being integrated more tightly with the Chinese economy. And, and, uh, the— I think there's a consensus right now among, uh, the Indian— Indonesian politicians that they want to maintain the close economic ties with, with China. This is kind of a lot of the Southeast Asian nations, actually. If you look at Indonesia and also Thailand, um, they all have very close economic ties with China, but they maintain, uh, um, uh, security tie with U.S. But Thailand is a little bit more aligned with China because Thailand now is buying warships from China. The Thai Navy is buying warships from China. So again, Thai military has its own ties with the— with Chinese military. It's not just wholly dependent on US.

Interesting. Well, speaking of Thai, I'll, I'll say one last thing before I open question. Speaking of Thai, there is now a conversation between Philippines and Thailand regarding a nuclear power plant, and the US already suggested to to the Philippines that they will be the one to build the one in Philippines. Now, can this country afford it? Can both countries afford it, Philippines and Thailand?

The other question is, can U.S. build it? I mean, like, what's the— what's the U.S. record for building infrastructure? Infrastructure is Asia. I, you know, I, I will believe it when I see it. U.S. make a lot of promises, you know. That's true. Well, Biden also promised he will increase investment into Africa like 3 years ago. We haven't seen anything out of it. We're gonna have to see whether, whether U.S. can carry out its promises. Uh, I'm— I, I, you know, I, I, I, I, I was— I, I thought the wait-and-see approach on that front first. I mean, yeah, because, because, I mean, you, you US controls IMF and the World Bank. I mean, they can always loan money to Philippines and Thailand to finance it. The question is, when— how that debt is going to be paid back, that's another question.

That's exactly like what, what, like what's going on in Argentina now, sinking in a $42 billion debt.

That's a real debt trap diplomacy. See, yeah.

All right, let me take some questions from you guys. And by the way, let me show you the link to Carl's YouTube channel. It's right there.

Go get some water, I'll be right back.

Go ahead, go ahead, Carl. This is the link to Carl's YouTube channel, guys, if you ever want to check him out. And, uh, I might come on his channel sometime. I'm gonna ask him, and I'll be happy to show up on on his channel, uh, too. So, and this is Carl's, uh, Twitter. I follow him on Twitter. He and I, we talk on Twitter a lot. I told them, I showed them your, uh, your YouTube channel, and maybe one day I'll be happy to show up on your, on your show there. I would be happy to do that. So, all right guys, let's, uh, let's take a few questions here for Carl and, uh And we go from there. So what I'm gonna do, I'm gonna scroll all the way to the bottom here and go my way up, because this way will be easier to do it that way. If you can, please just put Q, I know it's question. Uh, so question here from Astrid Di Soto: how much influence does the diaspora outside of India have on both elections and policies?

I— okay, I'm not an expert on Indian domestic politics, but India right now, the, the ones that wield a lot of influence are actually the oligarchs, like family like Ambanis. Ambanis, they're like the world's— they're like one of the world's richest families. Um, they are— they have, uh they throw their backing for Modi. They're Modi's main financial backer. And so, so yeah, so they, they have a lot of influence. They're, uh, probably more, more so than the diaspora, I would say.

Interesting. Uh, which one? This Hong, uh, right here. Fight Back question: what is Australia and Indonesia doing in Pap— in PNG, Papua New Guinea?

That is, uh, Papua New Guinea kind of happens like outside of the international spotlight. And yeah, you know, Papua New Guinea was a, a co— it was a, was basically run as Australian colony after World War II. Um, um, you know, now, now it's independent, but but it's still on— has Australia still kind of see Papua New Guinea as its backyard. There's a lot of mining interest in Papua, in Papua New Guinea, like there's, uh, and also on the West Papua. West Papua is a, is a west part of the island that's controlled by Indonesia. It's part, um, and a lot of the mining interests like Fremont, uh, they mine gold gold, copper, and the waters around Papua New Guinea is rich in oil and gas. So, you know, Australia is always, always view Papua New Guinea as like its own sphere of influence. And, and because the, the involvement of oil and gas and all these mining companies, um, yeah, it's kind of murky exactly what's going on. Sometimes, you know, I— you have to, you have to know what's happening in the ground sometimes to read the news, because you like this, you don't know, you don't know who is financing those news.

I won't trust them anyway, that's why I don't read them. So, uh, Army with Harmony question: would Carl venture to guess how long it will take the US to rebuild the Francisco Key Bridge compared to China's completing the project?

Now, okay, so, so they actually knew the bridge was a bad idea. I mean, initially, they were, they were planning to build a tunnel, underwater tunnel, to complete the Bel— the Baltimore Beltway project. But they, in the end, they decide to save money They decided to save money to build the bridge instead over one of the busiest shipping channels. And the US Coast Guard in Baltimore, they actually had a betting pool on when a ship will bring down the bridge. I actually want to know who won the bet.

Very embarrassing.

Yeah, this is one of those, uh, cutting corners owners to save money projects. And yeah, I don't know, man. US infrastructure project is in dire need of upgrade. We all know that. Hopefully it won't go the way of California high-speed rail because that project is just a joke now. Like, Chinese high-speed rail construction started at the same time 2008, 2008. And, and California high-speed rail, I still don't know when it's gonna be completed.

And I think China now reached about 45,000 kilometers or so, something like that. Yeah, I want to say thank you quickly here to Dragon 52. Thank you so much for your super sticker, truly appreciate it. So it is question from the Burton. Question: I heard from the rare I heard from the rare metal experts that if the United States run out of guided missile by aiding Ukraine, we can't make a new one unless China supply us the material. Is that a fact? Is there a fact in this?

Well, China control somewhere up to 80% of the rare metal supplies. So I mean, like, let— and, and, uh, and China also controls the production of gallium and germanium. And those are not even rare earths, they're byproduct of zinc mining, byproduct of aluminum production. And the, the, you know, the, the problem is with US is they can always find alternative source, maybe Australia, maybe North America, but to open a new mine takes like 5, 4 or 5 years to open, to bring a mine to a new mine into operation. And, uh, on top of that, uh, you know, aluminum production— we talk about this on the show, on your show last time— it depends on electricity. And, and American, US American power grid just can't support, uh, you can't support either EV or more aluminum production because there's no excess capacity, uh, right? Like, um, Janet Yellen is blaming China for building excess capacity, but US just doesn't have excess capacity because they're not interested in, in growth. They just want to squeeze more money out of the existing infrastructure. Um, so, so yeah, so I mean, like, it's true. I mean, you China so far, you know, has been really restrained in terms of tit-for-tat sanction against U.S. Uh, they so far, the, the major one they have placed restriction is on gallium and germanium. Uh, but, but they, they could easily, um, extend the, the, the ban on rare earth exports. Um, this is, this is where it's kind of ridiculous that U.S. You know, there are people talking about US going to war against China. How could you do that when, A, you don't have the industrial capacity, two, you need the raw materials coming from China? Like, how is that gonna work?

China will shut the market down for that. Uh, I want to say thank you to Kenny Lam. Thank you very much for your super sticker. Uh, there's a question from YT here. Is Malaysia closer to the US or China?

Malaysia economically is definitely much closer to China, and Malaysia doesn't want to. So this was actually answered by Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar recently. He was in Australia, and the Australian Prime Minister Penny Wong was pressing him to make a statement on, you know, aggressive China. And then, and Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar just said, this is not our problem, we are fine doing business with China, we love to do business with China, we have no problem with China, we don't understand what's your problem with China. And, and this, basically Malaysia actually has a friendly tie with China despite— so Malaysia Actually, they, they're one of the South China Sea claimants, uh, and they do have a, the maritime dispute with China, but it's very low-key about it. It's, it's, despite the, you know, you don't hear a lot of clash between China and Malaysia in South China Sea. There's not, because there's not much going on. But meantime, China and Malaysia carry on a lot of trade, and this is what, how Phil This could be the Philippines, but you know, Bongbong Marcos has other problems.

I ain't gonna do it. Yeah, well, speaking of Malaysia, uh, JL or JL said Malaysia caught 3 agents from Mossad yesterday, and in Indonesia there was a large explosion in an armament warehouse. Any connection here?

I mean, these things we don't really can can't really know for sure until like archives are open, uh, like all we can offer is speculation, uh, like we, we know the, the thing is Malaysia and Indonesia are both Muslim majority countries and they don't— and most of the population don't look kindly at the US support for Israel, uh, and what they're doing to Gaza right now. I mean, you US soft power is just basically collapsed after October, since, uh, since the Israeli atrocity in Gaza began. And when, when US is standing by Israel no matter what, this, you know, a lot of the— most of the countries outside of the so-called international community, which composed of the US and its vassal states, they're not with the US on this issue. And, and, you know, this is why, this is why to say, uh, you know, whether these countries are closer with China or US, I would say, you know, in most of these places, China have, uh, enjoy better perception in, in the Global South than the US at this point. Yeah.

And speaking of Indonesia and Malaysia, I'm gonna be looking for some universities over there. I I might consider teaching in one of those institutions there, so I'm going to take a look at it. Uh, question from Camp 35: have you heard that the US hijacked Socotra Island in Yemen and building an airstrip there?

Yeah, this is actually, uh, maybe have more to do with UAE because Socotra Island is, uh, Yemeni island in the in the Arabian Sea.

And it has closer—

UAE basically took the advantage of the, the Yemeni Civil War, in which it's a participant against Ansarullah, kind of basically effectively took control of that island. And, and UAE, of course, work very closely with United States, uh, you know, And so which allow U.S. to, to, to put, uh, you know, to put military installation over there. Because especially right now when U.S. is trying to break the Yemeni blockade on the Red Sea—

he couldn't. We couldn't. We couldn't despite the mighty power, which is pathetic.

U.S. Admiral was quoted on saying this is the largest battle US Navy has engaged.

Oh my God.

And guess what? You're losing. You are still losing. You're losing to the land-based Yemeni forces. This is just— yeah, this is embarrassing.

With a $2,000 drone versus, uh, to a million dollar or so, uh, missile. So, uh, Mobius Zero, thank you so much for your super sticker. Truly appreciate it. You wrote, Carl, can you please explain the shizo relation between China and Japan? This has been giving me a headache for 34 years.

Well, I mean, the, the largest, uh, shadow hanging over this, uh, China-Japan relationship, of course, is, yeah, legacy of World War II, you know, with the Japanese occupation, occupation invasion of China. Uh, but there was actually a period in time in the 1980s, the time I grew up in China, there was a brief honeymoon period between China and Japan. This is right after— so, so after Nixon visited China in 1972, Japan experienced what's called the Nixon Shock because Nixon— they didn't inform, they didn't inform their Japanese vassals, they just went ahead to make a deal with China. While previously US has pressured Japan not to develop independent ties with China, but now Nixon went ahead and, and built ties not telling the Japanese. So this is what the Japanese politics, they call the Nixon Shock. And so they, they then scrambled to build ties with China after 1972, and, and then in the 1980s, during that time, China was basically the de facto camp of the West against Soviet Union. And so Japan started to have this brief honeymoon period when the NHK, the Japanese TV, uh, uh, state television, actually went to film the Silk Road series in China. They traveled the whole length of China, made a very excellent documentary which I would recommend. And, and there were a lot of Japanese cultural inputs into China. I remember growing up in China in 1980s watching Japanese cartoons, um, and, and so there was a lot of, uh, people-to-people exchange. And that start to change in the mid-'80s when the Japanese politicians keep on making visit to the Yasukuni Yasukuni Shrine. And for people who don't know, Yasukuni Shrine is, uh, is a shrine where they host all the spirits of the war dead in Japan. But then in 1970s, in the 19— mid-late 1970s, a bunch of people snuck the, um, snuck the altars of all the executed World War II Japanese war criminals into the Yasukuni Yasukuni Shrine, and those altars stayed there. So after that, even the Japanese emperor— you know, the Japanese emperor who was the Japanese emperor during World War II— even he himself had refused to go to Yasukuni Shrine because he said that was inappropriate, that it housed the spirit of these war criminals. But the Japanese politicians, the right-wing politicians, continued to go to visit. And this created tensions in the China-Japan relationship, uh, from the late 1980s onwards. And now, you know, all the Japanese prime ministers, they always make a big, uh, deal out of their visit to Yasukuni Shrine during their— during their— during their time in office. And this, of course, this is not very— this does not make them popular in China. And this is one thing. Another thing is Japan, they were, they were one of the early investors in China after China opened up. Um, so just like how Japan invested in Southeast Asia, they also invested heavily in China. They, they have a lot of market share in China, but as China developed in the last 20, 30 years, the Chinese domestic companies, they start to take market share away from the Japanese brands. And, you know, I, I mentioned that earlier about EVs, but this is just a late— EV, electric vehicle, just the latest arenas where, where China is— Chinese companies are eating lunch of the traditional Japanese automakers. Uh, you know, the Chinese already start to compete with Japan in like high-end manufacturing like robotics, right? So this, this area, both Japan and Korea, they're now facing a lot of competitive pressure from Chinese manufacturing prowess. And this is where their— Japan is okay with a weak and poor China, but they, they get uncomfortable with a strong China because a lot of the Japanese politicians politicians, they still remember what their grandpa did in China. I mean, Shinzo Abe, right? Shinzo Abe's grandpa was known as the Monster of Manchuria. He was the one who architected the Japanese, uh, uh, scheme in occupation of Manchuria. And, and, and this— there's a fear, there's a fear among these, right, particularly right-wing Japanese politicians, that the— a strong China would do to Japan what Japan had done to China. A kind of similar fear, you know, from certain Western countries, you know, they ultimately, they fear like China would do to them what they used to do to China. So, so there's that fear, and, and there's also the, the Jap— there's a, the increased competition coming from the Chinese manufacturer. And so this is why— this is what one of the main push for Japan to cling on more tightly with the US-Japan security alliance because they say, see, at least US maybe can save them from China.

Wishful thinking. US not going to defend anybody. We couldn't even beat— for the last 2 or 3 conflicts been involved, we end up leaving with the tail between our legs.

And US, yeah, US goal is not to die for Japan. US goal is to have the Japanese to die for the Americans, because US want— this is why US have been supporting rearmament of Japan, you know. After World War II, initially US helped Japan to draft their peace constitution, which says Japan is not going to maintain a military, uh, Japan is not going to, never going to deploy, uh, military asset overseas. Seas. Now that has all already been overturned in Japan. Like, Shinzo Abe saw— basically saw to it that the peace constitution in Japan is basically dead. And now they're talking about deploying so-called Japanese Self-Defense Forces to Taiwan in case of a war breaking out. So this is US plan, actually. US want Japan to fight a proxy war for US against China Uh, and, and, and, you know, using Japanese, same way that US use Ukrainian to fight a proxy war against, uh, against Russia. I mean, like, they all have their own calculus, but the US calculus has always been, we don't want to fight for you, we want you to fight to die for us.

For us is the other way around. Yeah, I'll do the last one here. This is a statement by, uh, Jules Liang, which I have a question based on. This, uh, Jules wrote, Indonesia maintains close ties with the US while Australia has had a strained relationship with Indonesia. Very, very interesting statement, Jules. But here is my question, Carl. Is Australia concerned about Indonesia's economic power? Well, another word, you know Australia. Yeah, I was gonna say, I was gonna say, I was gonna say Australia's concerned that if Indonesia's economy move up, it's bad news for Canberra.

Well, Australia always have this inherent fear of this like Asian hordes from the north coming down and take them over. I mean, this This, this— because Australia and New Zealand, there are these like two white settler colonies on the edge, on the periphery of Asia, you know. Like, 50% of the world— people have to remember, 50% of the world population live in the circles of, of, of Asia Pacific that includes China, India, and Southeast Asia. That's a 50% of the world population. Australia has what, like 9 million people? It's always scared that, that all these Asians are going to come do to them what they have done to the Aboriginal Australians, right? The Australian Aborigines. So that's their fear. So they, they don't want, they don't want Indonesia to be too strong or too rich. And, and, uh, and, and so that, that's, that's the kind of the strained relationship. Relationship they have with, with Indonesia. Um, but you know, I— this is the thing, this is— the US will have its work cut out to kind of try to corral all the states into an anti-China alliance because they also all have their own little interests. But Australia might be the one that, uh, that will stick by US just because, you know, just because they're Australia, because, because of fear. Yeah, this fear of Asian takeover.

Over.

They might, they might stick to the AUKUS, uh, by US, because you— and also Australia was benefited by basically being a junior partner to the US. They're kind of the deputy of the US Empire in the Asia Pacific. Uh, you know, they—

so well, tell them good luck to that. No, I want to say thank you to Tom Putra. Thank you so much for your super sticker, truly appreciate it. Uh, final word, Carl. Where can my audience find you, man?

Uh, I have my own YouTube channel, Carl Za. Um, I'm also a prolific, prolific shitposter on Twitter. Say my handle is again Carl Za.

I got it right here.

Yeah, and, uh, you guys can also go to Patreon, uh, to look for the Silk and Steel Podcast. That's my, uh, where I talk about everything about China, history, culture, and politics, where I'm also doing a chronological retelling of the Chinese history from the very beginning. Now I'm at the 535 BC, uh, long way to go. I have a long way, long-term project.

Wow. Well, I can't thank you enough, Carl. It's always a treat having a conversation with you, man. I look forward to Next time, as you guys may know, Carla and I have agreed now to be doing this kind of regular talks every 2-3 weeks, whenever his schedule permits. And, uh, oh, Horace, Horace Lim, thank you so much for your Super Sticker. Horace has been an avid supporter, uh, always supporting the channel, uh, on LinkedIn also. And, and thank you so much, Horace, truly. Appreciate you guys. Well, I hope, guys, you find this very informative, and I look forward to seeing you next time. Remember to join me next week for the live stream that I'm gonna be doing about, uh, Janet Yellen's traveling to China begging for money. I don't know how else to say it because it's the truth. She's gonna— which is shame, you know, putting shame on me as an American. I'm embarrassed. You know, at least if I am to ask money from someone, I'll talk nice to them. I don't badmouth them, you know, I'll talk nice. But that's the American politics.

I think this is why she bows a lot. She's trying to overcompensate.

Or maybe having too much mushrooms. Well, thank you so much, Carl. Truly, truly appreciate you, brother. I look forward to seeing you next time. I'll be in touch with you via Twitter.

Awesome. Thank you.

All right, you take care. All right guys, hope you guys enjoyed Carl. I'm sure you did because he is a wealth of information, and I look forward to having him again here within 2 or 3 weeks, and I will let you know. I'll post this for you. As always, remember, thank you all for your support, by the way, and thank you for seeing some, uh, of you who come back, like Jules. So good to see you, man. And as always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, bye-bye.