BRICS Invite? Saudi Arabia Just Hit the Reject Button!

All right, hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Excited to be with you as always. I have an interesting topic for you. It's about the Saudis opting out of BRICS membership. In other words, they don't want to be a full membership. So there is a lot to unpack into this, uh, uh, I'm going to be detailing a lot, a lot of stuff for you. And, uh, I will answer some of your questions. So just make sure you prepare a question or two towards the end. Uh, we'll do this one here. So, uh, just let me say hi quickly to some of you guys. Uh, I know I saw Hang NG here earlier. I know I had to come in to check the sounds and all that stuff. So Ingrid Snow, good to see you. Dave H. Rita Dominguez, good to see you. Greg Dragon Boss. HTO, Chris Oot, that's an interesting screen name. Tomcat, good to see you. Uh, uh, Dan Dancer, Imaia, good to see you. Stock Shattic, good to see you. Uh, Joe Cho, uh, I saw some new names here. So Murky, good to see you as always. So Hamad City, Matt Becky, all the crew is here. So anyway, excited to be with you guys here. Uh, as I said, um, it's an interesting topic because I'm going to divide it into two sections, uh, economic and geopolitics, but I'm going to focus on the geopolitical aspects of it. There is an economic angle, but you have to understand the big picture. So, and, uh, just let me put this out for the record, uh, for those who might be here for the first time, uh, just to think about what qualifies me to talk about, uh Saudi Arabia. So, well, for more than over, what, 13, 12, 13, 14 years or so, I worked as part of my military background, without going into the detail of that, which was on behalf of the US policymakers back in my days. But I worked and visited Saudi Arabia sort of officially representing the United States government. So on many occasions. So I've been there a lot. I speak Arabic language fluently. I grasp the depth of the kingdom's social, cultural, and yes, religious interaction. And from both abstract and practical perspective, I know how Saudi Arabia's internal politics works. This— the, the analysis I'm going to be providing you today falls within that realm. So this firsthand experience, in my opinion, is necessary to offer sort of the most salient analysis, which I'm going to do for you, of how Saudi Arabia interacts, responds, and manages its role within the current geopolitical landscape. So it falls just within my not only academic background but also my practical experience. I also wrote a book about Saudis, to those who had a chance to read it. So you can get a copy on Buy Me a Coffee. I put it out there. So anyway, let's get into— I have two questions basically for this that's going to put sort of things in perspective. So, uh, the first question is, if I can get to it quickly here, guys, uh, yeah, right here. Just, just, you know, what's really behind Saudi Arabia's, uh, decision? And the second question is, why now? The timing of it. So this is where that— there is no such coincidence in geopolitics, uh, uh, I tell you this upfront, uh, and you need to think in these terms. All of a sudden, Saudi decided, oh no, no, no, for membership. So, so, and, and this, in my opinion, highlights a significant geopolitical shift. So, and this is why the Saudis have declined these invitations to join, despite it was the Russian president who extended the invitation, uh, uh, to the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, which I will talk about in a minute. Uh, uh, instead, sort of the Saudi prince end up sending the foreign minister. So, uh, The, the, the one thing I need you to understand, guys, is to, uh, how to sort of align the, the Saudis, uh, uh, uh, evolution within the, the geopolitical alliances that they are reshaping now, the global order. There are, you know, alliances reemerging or emerging per se, and BRICS is one of them. And to, to the Saudis, even though the public statement will say, well, we have to weigh our potential benefits versus risk. What are the benefits of joining BRICS versus risks? Yeah, there are always risks in everything you do, even in life. When you go out for a drive, there are some risks. You might be, you know, hit by a car, or you hit some— whatever. So risks are part of it. What the Saudis are saying, are saying in this context, is, well, we, we based our decisions on the geopolitical changes that's coming forward. Why? Because BRICS is expanding with new partners, and the Saudis think about it in terms of, well, our strategic interest might not align with certain members within BRICS. I can see the logic into that argument. I don't believe it because I worked inside Saudi Arabia during my time representing the US government, dealing with the representative of the Saudi government. So you kind of acquire over the years the experience of how the, the, the kingdom thinks, or the monarchy for that matter, because the government is the monarchy, just to let you know, guys. So, so, and that's what I said, what is really behind this decision? And, and that's what I think we're gonna get, uh, uh, delve into this. So I had a chance to read a variety of articles, believe it or not, just for the last 48 hours. Uh, two of them caught my attention, and I'm going to provide you the link like I always do. One of them is written by Nesip Hikret Bataloglu. I think she's Turkish, uh, in assistance with Nikla or Nikolai Kozanov. She is a PhD candidate, uh, so, uh, I think he's her, uh, uh, uh, what we call it, the chair of her committee or whatever his position might be. He's the one overseeing her research. Well, but anyway, uh, it was very, very interesting. And, and I need to share a picture with you guys here, uh, because I do have some pictures. Uh, I think it was this one right here. Yeah, this is Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud. He's the foreign minister who attended the BRICS summit. So, and like I mentioned last time, uh, the, uh, Russian president, uh, the month before, actually last month, extended the invitation to Mohammed bin Salman to attend the October 2024 BRICS summit. So, and, uh, So that will be like some sort of the first time, uh, where the new members, including Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates will be there. Saudis also were there, so except that now they made it clear that they don't want a full membership with BRICS, but they will cooperate with BRICS. Well, you can have it both ways. Yeah, they still can cooperate. I'm not saying they shouldn't. It just doesn't bode well, and, and I'll tell you why. And you reach your own conclusion for that matter. One thing is certain is that when the invitation was extended to Iran, Iran sort of quickly accepted the invite. So it was like a natural fit, makes perfect sense. And this is where we're going to get into the economics, but mainly in geopolitics, to, uh, detail exactly if we are to say it's because of geopolitical reasons the Saudis didn't want to, uh, become a full member, then, then you'll decide on this one. So now you need to think about this from two angles. What are the Saudis— what could the Saudis gain from joining BRICS as a full member? What could the Saudi lose from joining BRICS as a full member? So, so from an economic perspective, and I'm going to just do brief stuff here, so Uh, you have to think about the consideration for the Saudis, economic perspective here of the Saudis towards BRICS. Because when you think about BRICS in itself, and I have graphs that I'm gonna be sharing with you here shortly, let me, let me get it quickly here, uh, open the link for it and, and we just go from there. But just to think about it from an economic perspective, So you think about, uh, the, the expanded group of BRICS will now represent 45% of the world population and 28% of the global GDP. This is when you unite all the— now here's the thing, I checked 3 different sources about this number of the global GDP output for, for BRICS, and, and, and, and it checked. The one, one particular one with the exact figure was 27.94%. Of course, you round it to the next level, which is 28%. So, so the BRICS countries, of course, you know, the, the, the five, uh, collectively, uh, uh, contribute about, uh, sort of, uh, $29 trillion, just the five— Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. We're not talking the new members yet. So, and about 27.9% of the global economy. So now just think about it, guys, from an economic perspective. Adding new members, each one is going to bring something to the table, no doubt about it. But when you think about it, as it stands today, China alone has about $19.3 trillion, which it plays the central role within BRICS framework. So because there is no match for any other— Russia or India or South Africa, uh, no, the, the, uh, they just can't. Or Brazil for that matter. So you think about it also in terms of PPP, the purchasing power parity. So the BRICS countries overtook— even though I'm having a video coming up in which I asked the question about overtaking G7— so it took over G7 share of the world total GDP. And it wasn't yesterday, that was back in 2018. It became clear that BRICS is moving into that direction. And by 2024, which means this year right here, there is a hold— meaning, meaning the BRICS hold about 35% of the world GDP compared to G7, 30%. The numbers don't lie. And again, I checked from 3 different sources, and I will put the link for you guys, uh, for you to see. So let me share one particular picture with you here, uh, while we're talking about economics. Uh, uh, I'm going to show you a picture of King Salman bin Abdulaziz, uh, when he was visiting with President Xi. Now, I know one of you corrected me yesterday in a comment when I said Xi. Yes, I caught myself this afterward, but I must tell you I heard the name of President Xi pronounced in two ways. Some say she as in a S-H-E, and some say see as in C-E-E. So I know is the first one is the one that is most common, and I am very familiar with that. So President Xi. So, so let me share a screen with you here because I need to show you a specific graph to put things in perspective. For you. So, and where is— yeah, right here. This is, uh, uh, no, this is the picture right here. So I'll show you a picture of, uh, oh, it's not clear. Anyway, we'll use this one here, full screen. But that's not the picture I want to show you. What I want to show you is, uh, uh, why BRICS matters, and I'm going to show you this BRICS countries and their GDP in trillions of dollars. Okay, so I'm gonna scroll it because it's, it's not a written— very, very small number. So, so you have India with $3.39 trillion, you have Russia with, uh, $2.24 trillion, Brazil $1.9 trillion, Saudi Arabia $1.9 trillion, Egypt $0.48 trillion, South Africa $0.41 trillion, Ethiopia 0.31, uh, United Arab Emirates 0.51, and Iran 0.39. And here is China, comes up with 17.96. Now remember, this one, this particular article was in February of this year, so the numbers for China has changed. And I give credit, by the way, to the World Bank. That's where the chart is from. So Uh, it's just to highlight to you the importance of understanding what those numbers mean. And when you understand this, you will start to think in terms of why Saudis will be worrying about, okay, should we join, should we not join? Because the Saudis have their own calculations also. So it's because Saudis have launched recently— this is according to the article that I read— And I checked on that number, except there are some other issues that Bloomberg refuse— not refuse, I'll take this word back, uh, decline to disclose to the readers. And to me, you can be cherry-picking by presenting only the big picture, or the rosy one, that is. So, but here is the thing: Saudis have launched, uh, uh, ventures of about $1.3 trillion in real estate and infrastructure projects over the past 8 years. And what is this for? Is because they want to diversify their economy away from oil. You guys got it. Will it work? We don't know. So far, the investments for the city of Neom— which, by the way, the Saudi prince, when he took power per se, his first stop was right here in state of Texas, believe it or not. He came to Houston. To ask for money. This is usually an investment. It's not, you know, they're wealthy enough, but, uh, it's an investment of sorts. And now when you think about this, uh, from an economic perspective, to why the Saudis turned down the membership, one thing that comes to mind is oil. We all know, and I'm going to show you a map of the Saudi oil fields right here for you. Take a look, guys. All these ones, certain— those are the key locations. Not all of them are, but the majority, it will be in the southern part, eastern part of Saudi Arabia. And this is where most of the oil are from. So, so when you think about Western investors might be doubting the necessity to deal with the Saudi economy given the changing global economy, Because the global economy is marked by what? As of now, instability. Now, to some of you might be shocked to hear that term, but it is. Why? Because we are in a shifting mode, economically speaking, with the financial aspects of it. As, uh, uh, I think one of you made a comment about, uh, the, uh, Mack Bridge has been shut down. Well, for a reason. It's because the fear of where the financial, uh, global financial system is headed. So when you think about the oil and energy from an economic perspective vis-à-vis Saudi Arabia's, uh, becoming a member of BRICS, two countries come to mind. Two only. Why? Because consumption. What are those two countries, guys? Can you type in, in the chat box What are those two countries that comes to mind when it comes down to consumption within BRICS? It should be clear to you guys which countries are. Let me see in the chat box what you guys put in. All right, I know it takes a while for the comment to show. Oh, oh, John Smith, you got it, you got it. Hamed City, you got it. Uh, M, you got it. Uh, Alistair, you need to add China to that. Yeah, India and China. So why is this? It's because in addition to non-Western, now we're dealing only with BRICS. They are the major consumers and buyers of the Saudi oil. Okay, that's from one end. On the same trajectory, you're going to have to think about another country, but from a different perspective as far as production, and that country is Russia. Why is this important? It is important because the Saudis will have to coordinate the policies for OPEC+ with the Russians. Russia is an OPEC+ member. Uh, uh, the Saudis hold sway over OPEC. They dominate OPEC. There is no other way around it. But now things are changing with Iran moving into BRICS. Still, Iran will be part of, of the OPEC Plus— OPEC, rather. But also Russia's playing that role regarding the OPEC Plus, and this will come into the idea of deciding on oil prices. And this leads us to the key question that we ought to think in the big picture: was really the decision of the Saudis to opt out of the membership because of the pressure regarding the US dollar transactions? Especially in the energy. As an analyst, I am leaning more towards that, which is only one aspect of many others, and I'm gonna get into that as I move forward. So you think about the BRICS could further support the kingdom's position on the global oil market because the demand, right? But the Saudis don't want to be tied down. So in other words, they want to have it both ways. They just announced today that they will still cooperate with BRICS, and I don't see a problem with that. They can do bilateral like what they're doing with China by conducting transactions in the Chinese yuan. Yeah, of course we frowned at the Saudis for that. On the other hand, you got the emerging, uh, sort of countries or economies within the blocs And that's where you have the Saudis— the— I'm sorry, China and India, as far as the competition for the Asian market from the Saudi perspective. Because that's, you know, here is where the difference is. When I was— when I was in China, you know, guys, I didn't see a gas station. Surprising, huh? But at the same time China's energy is used for some other stuff which it needs anyway. The same argument— well, of course, the argument I'll make it for India that is buying from both Saudi Arabia and Russia at a discounted price. And this is to me where you have to think about India is not doing it because of domestic consumption. No, no, India is doing it because they are reselling that oil at twice or three or even four times the price to Europeans. So buying it cheap from Russia— now, will we judge India for that? No, no, we shouldn't. It's a, it's a, it's a smart business decision for them to do. So I, I, I don't blame them for that because it makes, it makes perfect sense for the Europeans who shot themselves in the foot following our policies because we had a des— we had a, a, a, an idea already that we wanted to sink the European economy, mainly that one of Germany. And here it is. And I'm gonna make a video for you guys, by the way, detailing some other stuff. And this is where you need to think from an economic perspective. Energy will be at the heart of all this because Saudis coordinate their efforts regarding OPEC+ with Russia. Now, if we are to move into the geopolitical aspects, and I had a chance to read the separate articles, and I'll provide you the link, uh, written by Sam, uh, Alcock. So once again, it makes perfect sense to me. I disagree with some points that, uh, Sam made, and I'm gonna highlight them here, but that doesn't mean he's wrong. It doesn't work that way, guys, when it comes down to intellectual discussions and, and so forth. You still have— you still can disagree, uh, with, uh, with an assessment, but that doesn't make it wrong, okay? You just have a different argument you have to, uh, uh, present to make your point. So, so now to the Saudis— and we're still talking about the Saudis here— to the Saudis' calculations from a geopolitical aspect is that they are thinking of the current geopolitical shifts taking place. Because they are. That's what they're saying, why they declined to join the BRICS, uh, uh, during the summit in Russia. So, and, uh, the Saudis also announced that because it highlights their strategic consideration on global stage. I will have to push back against that for many reasons. I'll, I'll state just two or three. First of all, what strategic, uh, what influence does Saudis play on the global geopolitical landscape? If it weren't for oil, we won't be talking about Saudi Arabia. I tell you this straightforward, because what does Saudi Arabia bring to the global market? I mean, correct me guys if I'm wrong, and please share with the community here if you think, in your opinion, Saudi Arabia brings something else to the global economy beside energy— oil, that is. I couldn't think of any, and I wrote the book about Saudis. I dealt for 2 years the research about it in addition to my work. There is nothing there. So, so, and to the Saudis, they are thinking in terms of, well, the world is changing geopolitically and we need to move with that direction. Yeah, I can see the arguments for that. Excuse me. But that doesn't hold. It just doesn't hold because the idea of, uh, uh, uh, the geopolitical changes— Saudis don't play much in it. Saudis only have to impact the energy trajectory. But one thing we have to agree all all of us on is that there is a, a link between energy and geopolitics. When I do presentations, usually for some close audiences and all that, you know, and, and this energy issue or topic comes up, I always have to bring in the geopolitical dimension to it because you can separate the two. So just look at it now for oil prices with the turmoil that's taking place in West Asia. So that's, that's my argument. So, and this is where that decision, uh, uh, by the Saudis, uh, as far as the changes within the geopolitical landscape are taking place, and they are arguing that because the world is changing and we're going to have to ensure that while we are cooperating with the BRICS, we're going to have to maintain our relations with the United States. Well, you know what I'm getting at, right? No, because here is the thing: Saudis will not survive if the US does not provide them security. Straightforward. And again, I am talking from experience here. I've been on the ground I worked on, on many aspects with the high level of the Saudi government, and when it comes down to the military, you know, and I kind of understand those dynamics. Saudi Arabia is under the US security umbrella, and that is why Saudis will have to do— yes, sometimes they'll stray away and do whatever, but overall It comes up to the security of the monarchy, not the kingdom itself. The monarchy, remember that. So this is a picture, by the way, of, uh, Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, who is member of the royal family, attending. Uh, and by the way, just FYI, uh, to those who might be the first time here, I did a video before in which I talked about the geography and history of Saudi Arabia, so I'm not going to touch on this in this one here., but just for you to understand. And one thing I can share with you is that the key positions in the government are held by members of the royal family. The intelligence services, the Ministry of Interior, the defense, the finance, the foreign ministry, all those are by the, the royal family members because it has to stay within. And this is where that argument, uh, uh, that even Sam made, this one, the author Sam Alcock, and I concur with him on that one, that the Saudis have to calculate the, uh, sort of, uh, the geopolitical ramifications of giving up on the Saudi security. So on the other hand, Saudis might be thinking, okay, well, we still can maintain cooperation with BRICS because we want to sort of increase our partnerships with other countries. Well, because Saudis have, like I said, and no offense to the Saudis, If it weren't for oil, we won't be talking about Saudi Arabia. It has nothing to offer. So what you got, even for the pilgrimage, you know, which to me became— I, I don't buy that argument. And, and, but again, I respect people who, uh, do that and go to Saudis to do that. But even that pilgrimage is controlled by the Saudi, you know. And again, religion aside, we think about the political aspects of all this. So And the idea— and this is where I disagree with Sam Alcock regarding his assessment— that the Saudis want to assert themselves as an independent regional powerhouse, meaning in the Middle East or West Asia, but also within the prominence of the international stage. They have no stand on that if it weren't for oil. Simple as that. So how they going to be influencing the global trajectory be they politically, geopolitically, or geostrategically. They can influence it on the economic energy aspect, but not on the play. Look at exactly what's taking place in Gaza, okay? Well, tell me what influence does Saudi have? And let alone, they are Muslims and looking for other Muslims being slaughtered. So straightforward. So what you hear, the statements from the not just Saudis, most of the Arabs, is nothing but a pro-Vallo. I would say the same thing. And this is where I disagree with the author. That doesn't mean he's wrong. I just happen to disagree because Saudis being independent in a regional powerhouse, there is no match between Saudi Arabia and Iran. And I'm a former, you know, when you do analysis, you kind of assess really the strength If Iran, if Iran gets in a fight with the Saudi militarily, they'll wipe out Saudi Arabia in no time. And I'm again talking based on facts here. All the weapons that the Saudis have, you know, even their fighter jets and all that stuff, you know, don't, don't forget, there were some of us flying those jets in Yemen when they were targeting the stuff. Quietly. So it's not classified. I'm sharing this because it's in the public domain. Uh, uh, I'm still bound by the law, of course. I will not disclose any classified information. That's my responsibility. It's not a fear of the government. I give a damn about the government. It's my responsibility. That's all it is. So this is where you have to understand where the Saudis coming into this by ensuring we still want to keep a leg on the Western global powers, or with Western global powers, but also we want to ensure access to the market in Asia because the global, or the global economy has shifted from the West to the East. The wealth has shifted from the West to the East. It's been, it's been, it's done, it's fait accompli. So, and this is again where you have to put this into this understanding the political sensitivities of why the Saudis will word this one this way. So, uh, I give you just that example of, uh, the, uh, the what's taking place in Gaza. So, because, you know, I don't buy the arguments. Again, I happen to work in this, in this realm, so I, I know the stuff that is not being reported. So now there is a third element And third element— I wish I had a picture of it, but I don't— the third element is that the fear of the Saudis of having their assets being frozen. Now, when considering they are over $400 billion, I had a chance to see with my own eyes $120 billion worth of gold in gold bars in New York City underground in a Federal Reserve Bank there. So I didn't see it. I said, well, I don't know. I can't state something that I didn't see. So, and one thing that I need you also, guys, to know, especially for if, if you are here in the US, did you know that the Saudi money are injected in the American economy? And if the Saudis pull their money out our economy will sink. It's a fact. So Saudis are calculating, even, even with the $4 billion, which is a lot of money, of course, still, when you think about the Saudi economy, because of the energy, $1.2 trillion, the royal family itself is worth about, I think, $2.1. Don't quote me on this because I— it's one of those numbers, $1.8 or $2.1, whatever. And the one thing that I know, the inflated the value of Aramco Arabco. And Arabco is the royal family company, even though it says Saudi company, it's not. I'm telling you the facts here. Uh, when the— some Chinese investors want to buy stocks into that, I think they want some investments, and the Saudis inflated Arabco to the point of saying it's worth trillions and trillions of dollars. Uh, no, no, that's not the case. And this is one of other points that I need you to understand, is that could it be that when the Saudis agreed to transact with the Chinese using the Chinese currency, the United States frowned upon them. But also the, the United States was concerned that if all— there's the key— all Saudi oil transactions— because Saudi Arabia has a massive amount of oil that goes around the world— if all its transactions will be conducted in other currency besides the dollar. Because again, the timing of this— I don't know why my screen is flickering here. So everything was fine till I start talking about this. Very interesting. So, and, and this is on a serious note, and this is where that concern— because as I mentioned to you in the video yesterday or the day before, there is a concern in Washington behind closed doors quietly. And they're concerned about the changing global financial system with what BRICS is doing. Like I mentioned, uh, uh, MacBridge has been shut down. So just gives you an idea right there. So for you to put this in perspective, to understand— the Saudis won't want to see or wouldn't want to experience what Russia is experiencing now. Because freezing those assets for, for example, the Russia, to me it's, it's a theft. It's not right. There is still right and wrong, you know what I mean? There is nothing in between. You either do right or you do wrong. There is nothing— I'll do a little bit of right and a little bit of wrong. There is no such thing. Saudis are thinking ahead of all this. It's because Like I said, security of the Saudis depends on the US. 70% of the weapons Saudis have are Americans. And as a matter of fact, just recently there was an agreement between Saudi Arabia and the United States about the $400 billion weapon purchase from the Saudis. Makes me just wonder, what are all these weapons for? You know, uh, Saudis can't fight, they really can't. Yeah, they have elite forces, and, and, and, and I remember I used to train, uh, uh, for— nah, they, they won't hold up, you know. It's just because— and I'll, I'll share with you an excerpt from the book in which I disclosed this kind of stuff. So, and here is the thing, so the US remain sort of the only major defense, uh, provider, for arms and so forth for Saudi Arabia. And the kingdom is considered the second largest arm importer between 2019 and 2023, according— and I provide you the link for all this. And this is why the supplies of the US to Saudi Arabia is around 75% of weapons. I am aware of the Saudis reaching out to China for certain systems. As a matter of fact, Saudis bought certain types of missiles from China behind the US's back. I'm aware of that. I even have the location of where those were, but that's beside the point. Uh, of course it's not easy to change weapon systems quickly. It's just going to be a nightmare for that. And this is one of the idea of why Saudis have to really evaluate their security versus joining BRICS on one aspect, but also the fear that the US might turn on the Saudis, which is something we do. You know, we all remember the Arab Spring. You remember all that, right? Tell me if it was any Arab Spring demonstrations in Saudi Arabia. They weren't, for a reason. And, uh, now there is another aspect, and I agree with the author on this, uh, the, the, the, the structure of BRICS. Yeah, I've always said, and I will still— I still hold, uh, my conviction regarding this particular point. The challenges BRICS will experience moving forward, it's not going to be from outside. It's going to be from within because the loose structure of this— I'll give you a quick example. And one of you guys, I forget the name, I'm sorry, one of you highlight this in the comments and I said I will address this one. Think about just what happened with two, uh, uh, issues. One is Brazil and the other one is India. Brazil went ahead and blocked Venezuela, and I think, what was it, Nicaragua or some other country there And India blocked Pakistan. And, and, and the logical question that I will ask is, well, wait a minute, why will India and Brazil just block this? That means the way the procedure inside BRICS is by consensus, not by votes. Well, how about put everything to vote and majority rules? To me makes perfect sense. Because BRICS will have to think in terms of— as it expands, as more conflicts of interest will emerge to the forefront, which will hinder BRICS moving forward. In other words, BRICS will not be able to make a dent on the global stage if it stays the way it is. Second thing, BRICS will have to be careful as to who they bring in. I've already made it clear In the case of Philippines, the last thing he wants, bring in Philippines. They already issue with Egypt there. And by the way, before I forget, India also objected to Turkey's membership. Begs the question, why? You have to understand all those dynamics, guys. Without understanding this, you won't be able to put that aspect of the, uh, of, of, of, uh, decisions such as the Saudis making, not based just on economics. There are other, uh, and this is what I say about Brexit itself, because the diversions that exist from within, especially when it comes down to, uh, even though, uh, and in this one I believe the author mentioned, if I recall reading the article, mentioned about China-India rivalry. Well, hold on a second. Uh, Sam, uh, what rivalry are we talking about? India cannot rival China. India will not rival China because India does not have the economic power to match that of China. Those are facts. So when we state something, when we read something like this, we assume automatically that, oh, India is rivaling China. Well, it can't. You rival China in what? You know what I mean? When you still have your, uh, uh, uh, poorly designed infrastructure, when you still have a high level percentage of poverty, when you still have high level of unemployment, when you still have the, the, the governance that is not, uh, uh, applied equally per se among all the states and so forth, when you still have tensions on your borders, you know, all this adds up. But we have to understand, if we are to take this and take the Saudi position, Saudi positions will have to prioritize as to where the Saudi influence will be. Because if Saudi enters this kind of full membership, what influence they will have? They're gonna add something to the energy, but they already having a deal with China and India as the largest markets. What else they're gonna compete? Are they gonna compete with China? They can't. And this is one of the things we have to think in terms of, uh, uh, where things moving forward, uh, now with this surprise decision by the Saudis, is that in my opinion— and I'll share with you the excerpt from my book and, and you reach your own conclusion for this— but for now, suffice it to say that the Saudi is going to be playing it both sides, playing it safe. The main thing that I know, I know for facts behind closed doors, is the fear of two things: the frozen assets and also the US might do something. Look what's going on right now in Georgia. I'm sure you're familiar with the elections that just took place in Georgia, and you will think that whomever stayed in whatever will learn from what the former president, Mikheil Saakashvili, the idiocy of Mikhail Shakhashvili when he believed, uh, what the West told him and NATO told him. He said, oh, you go and fight the Russians, we will defend you. The moment the first shot was fired, NATO told Shakhashvili, what are you, out of your mind? You want us to fight a nuclear Russia? You must be out of your mind. It's the same arguments I will make. So, but as far as the Saudis retaining their uh, what's the word, uh, strategic autonomy, ah, it's very limited. It's very limited. Once again, if it weren't for oil, we won't be talking about Saudi Arabia. Straightforward, straightforward. So let me share an excerpt with you, excerpt, uh, or two with you from my, uh, uh, my Saudi book. Uh, I, I know some of you already got a copy of it. But, uh, so, so back then when I wrote about this, it was during the turmoil of the, uh, MBS coming to power. And I wrote back then, I am certain the recent campaign of arrests of the royal family members had nothing to do with economics and/or corruption. Rather, it is MBS's way to silence his critics, especially the more experienced and elderly members from within the royal family. In light of the arrests and kidnappings of some of the royal family princes, I am convinced that, uh, more than ever, that the future stability of Saudi Arabia is once again coming to the fore. So the hyperbole about corruption and making KSA a modern state is nonsense. Prominent whistleblower Ali al-Dubaisi, a Saudi in self-exile, who heads the Berlin-based European Saudi Organization for Human Rights, called the Crown Prince's campaign a black comedy, in quote. So just to highlight to you, so this is now where these questions coming to the fore as to how the young, inexperienced, and impulsive Prince MBS intend to address the domestic issues, let alone challenges of regional and global scope are very urgent. So there is no strategy or economic formula the prince is highlighting if he wants to move his so-called Vision 2030 forward. What we have heard thus far is nothing but empty rhetoric. It is one thing to push, for instance, uh, some, uh, form of women's right. It is another to have a successful economic strategy to create jobs for Saudi youth, as Saudi Arabia's unemployment rate is getting higher and higher, and whose population has been weaned on cradle-to-grave welfare system. It will be very dangerous if Al Saud procrastinates in addressing key domestic issues. Doing so will be a recipe for political insecurity, instability that could spill beyond the borders of the desert kingdom. It's a reality. You just have to— you can't sugarcoat this kind of stuff because, uh, and, and again, I was very, uh— and by the way, I had this book cleared by the US government. Uh, they did redacted, uh, a few words there. If you get a chance to see that, even the electronic copy, it's redacted. It. So, uh, and here is, uh, I continue on the argument is that the future of Kingdom Saudi Arabia will depend greatly on the United States providing security for the monarchy. I didn't say for the king, for the country, for the monarchy. Saudi Arabia fully understands that its survival in a tough neighborhood that has no love but, uh, for but animosity towards the kingdom depends greatly on its ability to maintain peace with its neighbors. So who do we have to thank first of all for now having a peace with Iran? It was China, not the United States, because United States never wanted the Saudis and the Iranians to get along by design. So, and to navigate these dangerous waters, the Saudi government had to create an enemy, real or perceived, depending on the Al Saud family's pick for the day as part of its survival mechanisms. Yet the objective is to maintain the distraction of a society that is oblivious and obscured from important societal, governmental, and economic information. The Saudi society is conditioned from cradle to grave to depend on the Saudi government to provide its daily bread in return for absolute loyalty and total obedience. That's the, that's the way I see it moving forward. And it just, uh, and by the way, I need to share with you one particular, uh, uh, aspect regarding, uh, uh, this, uh City of Neom, which come to the fore now. Whether you want to believe this or not, for me, I just share the information. Uh, of course I have to check on this, but I did find in another country in the Gulf, they experienced similar conditions, especially during the Qatar World Cup. How do you think the stadiums were built, and what are the conditions of the employees brought in from Southeast Asia and other locations. It's worth addressing here. And we're not pointing fingers, we are— so I'm going to share a screen with you and, uh, I'll provide you the link and you decide. For, uh, let me— this one right here, this is just one, uh, festival that took— not festival, uh, concert In Saudi Arabia, the Saudi prince allow so women can attend, but that's not the focus of this. The focus is about a brave female reporter has gone undercover to reveal the dangerous and deadly working conditions inside Saudi Arabia. More than 21,000 workers have died in just 8 years since MBS launched his Saudi Vision 2030 according to shocking new stats. Uh, the picture you're looking at here, guys, this is the concept image. It's not what it is, just a concept image of the city of NEOM. Uh, it is another one here. It's a resort of, of sort. And there's another picture. Those are just pictures, guys. It's not— it's called the Shusha Island Resort in Saudi Arabia, and it's a concept image. So And again, uh, I'm just wanted to— there are two sides to a story, and I need you to know the other side of the story as well. I'll provide you the link and you reach your own conclusion for that one. So, uh, what else I need to— I'm just going to wrap this up and I'll answer your questions. Uh, to me personally, and I speak for myself here as geopolitical analyst, I am looking more than what meet the eye here regarding the Saudi decision and convincingly states that they were pressured behind closed doors, uh, by the US. Most likely it is the case. Uh, UK and France and Germany, those are useless. Europe now, it's, it's exposed its weakness. Uh, that, that's just the weakness, weakness and useless. They are useless. So, so what's left is the, the US dictating the terms to the Saudis. For their security. If they want their security, they need to embark on A and B. I am not denying that the Saudis also had to calculate the, the, the, the, the benefits versus the risks regarding aligning with BRICS vis-à-vis the changes of the geopolitical landscape. I'm not denying this, but I am convinced that is not the only reason for why they made that decision. So what will be interesting, guys, and, and just for us to think outside the box, In your opinion, I'm going to ask you a question, and please just answer yes or no. In your opinion, do you believe Saudis might come back next year and say to BRICS, we'd like to be a full member? Yes or no? My screen is frozen. Interesting. Anyway, uh, let me see your answer here. Yes or no? Uh, Rangstar, can you say No. Q7E, you say yes. Vlad, you say no. Sid, you say no. Dave Cosby, you say no. Uh, uh, Vlad, you says A is gone. Yeah, yeah, it's, it's— I just want to have you part of this hang. You say no. Uh, uh, interesting hang coming from you. I know what you know. It's very, very interesting. And, and it's just because it's the same arguments I can make, and I concur with you guys by this one here. I concur with you. Same argument I can make about Argentina. You know, it will be a mistake of BRICS now to allow Argentina in because you can't be playing, you know, this is what I'm saying again. For BRICS to succeed, they're gonna have to sort out their own internal mechanisms by which to ensure First of all, the vote is, is a, is a, uh, the decisions are based on a vote. Okay, now if hypothetically there is a decision to, let's say, just for the sake of argument, create a currency, and let's say India objects to that, well, too bad. The majority rules on that. That means India will have to either excuse itself or figure something out. They can't be doing this, this and that and So, so same thing, BRICS will have to be careful who they extend the invitation on— to, rather. So, and, and that's to me became clear as to where things are headed if they want to make a dent on the global stage. Simple as that. So for now, we are clear that the idea of, uh, uh, Saudi's decision is tied also to their assets in the US, but also to the security aspect. It's, uh, and, and it became clear to me, and again, I could be wrong, this is my own assessments, uh, and, and, and there is one other thing, by the way, before I forget. The Saudis have asked the United States for nuclear technology, by the way. So, so to me, I, I wrote an article back then and I argued against it. Are you going to trust the Saudis with nuclear technology? I don't think so. So, all right, let's start with some questions from you guys. And, uh, uh, uh, who is that? Uh, no, oh, I'm sorry, not this one here because I saw a question. Hong Kong, uh, Dr. O, is the, is the US preventing Israel from invading Saudi Arabia? Uh, well, first of all, Israel will not invade Saudi Arabia. For simple reason, Saudi Arabia has back channel with the Israelis. As a matter of fact, Netanyahu, Bibi, he was in Saudi Arabia on a private visit nobody knew about. Not recently, that was a few years ago when I was still in Washington. We were aware of it. I was in there and I lived in that country and traveled back and forth. So it was a visit by, and the Saudis didn't even know about it. So, so no, there will be no invasion of Saudis. No, it won't have. Uh, let me see. Uh, uh, Hank, uh, the only thing I can say about this, but not openly because it's classified, uh, there is a mechanism of something like this from a different— if you read my book, uh, the, the redacted part, you're smart enough to read between the lines. And you will know what I'm referring to. But I see your point on this one here. All right, let me see another question from you. I'm scrolling all the way up. Uh, uh, uh, Dr. O guest, uh, thanks for the info. You're welcome. Petrov, uh, YouTube platform like yours. Is she geopolitical analyst? I, I don't know. So yeah, if there's a geopolitical analyst now with one with credentials, I don't shy away from saying this. Yeah, I'd be happy to. Why not? Uh, okay, question, uh, BRICS do a veto option, uh, Irene Z. It's a good alternative, but again, if you do all a veto alternative, then that means one country will limit the progress of BRICS. It's the same what's going on in the UN Security Council. You all remember the ceasefire that the rest of the world provided, and who vetoed that? The US. One vote. Got it. To me, it's not, it's not fair, it's not right. I think the votes, it's what's going to do it. You, you don't give veto power to any country. I mean, I am sure for the UN Security Council right now, if you give the option for Russia, China, uh, uh, uh, maybe France, maybe UK to give up, uh, the, the veto power. The US also— the US will object to it. So it should be no veto power, but regular vote, majority rules will make perfect, perfect sense in my opinion. So, uh, that's, that's how I see it. Uh, okay, let me see one more question here. Actually, I'm scrolling back down to see because any, any question you write is going to show at the bottom. Uh, US can remote control a nuclear weapon in Saudi Arabia. So, well, I see your point, Eli. I see your point. Uh, the same arguments can be made about Australia, for example. You all know about Australia getting all this deal and all that stuff for the nuclear subs, whatever, if the deal is on. I remember Hank writing something about that the deal is dead, but hypothetically, if he moves forward, do you think it will be the, the Aussies that's going to manage that? No, it will be the Americans, and the Aussies will not be allowed to get in into certain very restrictive areas. It's like what's going on in Pine Gap. Pine Gap, there is a section in Pine Gap that Aussies cannot get in despite their security clearance level. You can't get in. That's just for the US. And even for the US, you have to have certain level of security clearance to get in into that particular section of Pine Gap. I would say the same argument. And the Saudis will not, uh, uh, uh, so far no decision has been made because Saudis are also calculating on the outcome of the US presidential elections, which will be like in, in 2 weeks or so, whatever that time is. Uh, uh, uh, it will be very interesting to see. There are a lot of dynamics that's moving depending also on the outcome, because Saudis understand if Trump wins the election, what does it mean for trade with China? A trade with China will create more tensions regarding global transactions. Global transactions will translate into less, uh, exports of the Saudi oil because the cost— that's the way it rolls. So, uh, uh, there are a lot of moving parts. There are a lot of moving parts that you guys— and this is why I wanted to do this for you. I might even do a recorded, uh, analysis for you Uh, so that's just how it works. And, and, uh, there are a lot of moving parts. There are a lot of moving parts. I want you to understand, for me, is the idea of— because I wrote the book about Saudis, spent 2 years in the research, but I spent years between here and Riyadh, uh, back and forth, even in my military time back in the early 2000s, I had to take care of some foreign generals from that country when they were visiting the Pentagon as a guest. So you kind of learn over the years how— what works, what doesn't work. And once you understand the culture, once you speak the language, you will be able to form a sort of an informed opinion as to what lies ahead regarding— what prompts Saudi to embark on these decisions. Uh, all right guys, uh, before I sign off here, I want to say once again thank you to those who have been supporting the channel. I am very, very grateful. Uh, there is the link here if you feel like supporting the channel. Uh, uh, and, uh, also in this link there is the link to the books. Uh, you can— as a matter of fact, uh, the link to the books is right here. And I look forward to seeing you next time. I might work on something for you for Friday. Uh, remember to join me tomorrow on the other channel. We'll be talking economics tomorrow. There are some major developments, uh, that's going on, especially when it comes down to the public debt of the world, where it is vis-à-vis the BRICS summits and so forth. So there are a lot, a lot of interesting aspects that kind of put together, uh, this picture of where the world is headed. So, all right guys, uh, we are right on 1 hour. By the way, I have to thank, uh, uh, Daya, I believe. I forget the name, my apologies. I put a tweet on, uh, regarding the channel here. Please hit that like button and please share this channel with others. I would greatly appreciate— like I mentioned to you earlier, or last time— I'd like to hit, uh, 100,000 by next month. If you can help me out with this, I will be grateful. All right guys, as always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, guys. Bye-bye.