Caught Off Guard: Why Iran’s Sudden Move Terrified the US & Israel

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Donald Trump and Bibi Netanyahu just got hit with the ultimate strategic blindside. That's the only way I could think about it. Only 3 days, 3 days after the, the digitally signing ceremony of this peace deal and the MOU, that is, Iran did the unthinkable and slammed the Strait of Hormuz shut, catching the US and the Israeli intelligence agencies completely off guard. While Washington scrambles and Tel Aviv faces some sort of a sudden, now multi-front nightmare, one terrifying question remains. And the question is, how did the two most sort of strong— some might call them powerful— militaries on Earth let themselves get outmarched by a single geographic trap? Now, I found it very fascinating. It's just how we just underestimated where things are. As of now, Iran shuts down the Strait of Hormuz once again, even though the US Central Command is stating as of this morning, oh, Strait of Hormuz, the traffic is fine, ships are moving. It's, it's a lie. So in this live stream, in this analysis, I'm going to share with you first of all what prompted Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz again, then I'm going to provide you the geopolitical context, and I will conclude with one particular development of an event that I'm going to do a live stream for you about. It, it just—

I am waiting for confirmation.

And that particular development, in my opinion, is what prompted Saudi Arabia to lash out at Israel. Very, very interesting dynamics as things, uh, uh, uh, evolve and move forward. So, so what we have, basically, we have Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Let me put the map for you.

Um, oh no, this is the thumbnail for that one.

Let me put the right there. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to the continued Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon, alleging that the United States— this is what— it's not a legend, this is exactly what Iran stated on the record— is that the United States failed to rein in Israel. That violated now the newly signed ceasefire agreement. Because one of the first clauses in that, uh, uh, MOU was that Israel has to halt its operation, uh, in Lebanon. And Iran made it clear that the US will be held responsible if Israel violates that. Well, here we are. That tells you right there who's in charge. When Donald Trump is saying, oh, I told Bibi Netanyahu to stop Come on, man, get real and stop lying. It's the other way around. You taking orders from Tel Aviv, not the other way around. So now the way we're going to look at this is we're going to look at this sudden move that occurs, as I mentioned earlier, only 3 days after this. Uh, now you have the vital shipping lanes reopened. They were reopened 3 days ago, 4 days ago then, and that following the interim memorandum of understanding. That is why, if you recall, I use the term this is not a final deal, is the surrender deal. That's the reality of it. And that's when you have the US president signed, Donald Trump, in Versailles.

You all remember that clip I shared with you. And the Iranian president, uh, President, uh, both of them signed to end this regional war, that is.

So what I wanted to do is I want to share with you some key factors behind Iran's action, because you need to understand these dynamics. And I'm going to play some clips pertaining to this, and I'll play clips towards the end, so make sure you stay with me till the end. First of all, we have the ceasefire violation, because here is what the Iran Central Command, military command, said and accused the US of bad faith and a clear breach of its commitments by failing to end the fighting in Lebanon and secure a complete withdrawal of the Israeli forces. If the US has this much power over, over Israel, then they would have been able to do it, but they couldn't. And that is exactly, uh, where— and I'm gonna play a clip for you here, pertain to exactly what I'm talking about. This way you'll, you'll have an idea. Take a look, take a listen, take a look and take a listen, please.

Here we go.

On an insane murder spree. Israelis are going on an insane murder spree in Lebanon right now. They're doing this to violate the ceasefire between the US and Iran. And you know what? They've been successful. Iran just closed the Strait of Hormuz. Back to square one. Subscribe for more.

And that's— it tells you right there, that means the US has no power whatsoever.

They couldn't control the Israelis.

The other thing, it has to do with preservation of Hezbollah. So, and here is what some objective analysts are seeing this. They are noting that Iran is treating the ceasefire, or the sort of the cessation of the military, uh, actions against Hezbollah as a red line.

Like I mentioned last time, I remember before I left the US last time, I mentioned to you that—

did you notice that there are no more strikes against Ansarullah, the Houthis?

It's because they understand— they meaning in this case US and Israel—

understand that Iran supports Ansarullah by providing some really, uh, heavy weapons. The same apply to Hezbollah, and Hezbollah to Iran is a red line. Meaning if Israel crosses it, Iran will do what it has to do. And this is why you have the explicit conditioning, the border peace agreement, on a permanent halt of operations in Lebanon. That is one of the things. The other one has to do with the diplomatic leverage. All this from on behalf of Iran. The diplomatic leverage, which I will get into the nitty-gritty of it, what happened in Switzerland, by the way, or in Pakistan first. The closure announcements coincided with the departure of the Iranian and the US delegations, including US Vice President JD Vance.

Uh, where is his picture?

Right here. JD Vance to, uh, Switzerland, to Birkenstock in Switzerland, for high-stake technical negotiations. Well, guess what happened? Iran just walked away, and I'm going to show you a clip that proves it and, and a proof for you to, uh, to, to see what happens. The bottom line to this particular aspect is that for Iran, Iran is using the threat of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but it wasn't just a threat, they follow through. This is why I always believe, and again, to those who disagree with me, I, I appreciate your opinion and so forth. I always believe that Iranians do not bluff. They don't lie. And if they say something, they're gonna follow through. And here's the example, because we told Donald Trump through these negotiators and so forth, if Israel violates this agreement by attacking Hezbollah, we will close the Strait of Hormuz.

And here we are.

But on the other hand, Iran has a very, very strategic calculation, especially economic one. That means what? The closure of the Strait of Hormuz will exert maximum economic pressure. That in itself will allow Iran to gain a stronger negotiating hand because the ball is in the US court, not in Iran. Iran has the upper hand. Is the US that is facing now the midterm and the fear of Donald Trump of being impeached if the Democrats end up winning both chambers in Congress. It's automatic impeachment. I'm even starting to think maybe Donald Trump is going to resign if it became clear that the Congress— the both, uh, houses in Congress are going to be in firm grip of the Democrats. The other aspects of all this has to do with the demand for oil waiver. Why is this important? Because the Iranian state media outlet reported that Iran intended to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed until the Lebanese ceasefire holds and explicit waivers allowing the unrestricted, uh, sale of Iranian oil are formally issued. That means what? Even though the US said, oh, we allow Iran's oil to be sold, it's not formal. The Iranians understand how the Americans operate. You can't trust the American government or take it at its own word. This is why it's important to understand these dynamics. Now we are looking at the geopolitical standoff, because that is what it is right now. The US military Central Command—

that is because most of this, uh, part of the world, uh, any issue, any statement has to come through the, uh, the Central Command.

What they are disputing now, they are disputing Iran's claim of controlling the waterways. You know, are we going to trust what the US government is saying? So, so the Central Command is stated on the record that the Strait of Hormuz remains open. I checked this morning and it is not. And they're saying, well, traffic continues to flow and American forces are actively monitoring the area to ensure security. No, no, no, no, this is just fluff, has nothing to do with the reality on the ground. So, and in response to this, Iran— in response to this announcement by Iran, Donald Trump threatens severe consequences, warning that the US could take full physical control of the shipping lane. And here is where the kicker is. You know what he added? He added that the US will levy a 20% Guardian Angel transit tax on passing oil crude if the peace deal completely collapses. What a, what a I, I think, I think, uh, Trump is living in some la-la land of sort. He's, he's not thinking straight, in my opinion. Basically what he's saying is we're gonna control the Strait of Hormuz and we're gonna put a, a fee, uh, for a transit fee for any ship that wants to cross the Strait of Hormuz, 20%. And basically, which country is going to be, taxed for this? It will be the Gulf States because most of their oil has to go through the Strait of Hormuz, or the rest of the world for that matter. Remember, 20 to 21% of the global oil energy, or the global energy rather, transit through, or through the Strait of Hormuz. And this is where, to me, I, I take a step back and, and, and put my geopolitical analyst hat And I'm finding myself asking one specific question, and I truly, by the way, uh, for our wonderful community, I would love to have your feedback, uh, in the chat box, what you think about it. So the question is that I'm thinking about is between the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear power. Remember, the whole reason for why, uh, uh, Donald Trump end up going to the war on behalf of Israel, of course, is because of the nuclear, uh, file on nuclear, nuclear power. So So if we are to think between the Hormuz Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear power, what did Iran learn from the 110-day war as of today, as of June 19th?

Because June 19th was 110 days.

So, so in your, in your opinion, just put a, a word or two, how do you see it? So, so to me, the way I see this is that following the 110-day the war, which started on February 28th, up to June 17th—

not 19th, I take this back—

June 17th marks 110. So we are now on June 22nd, add another, uh, 5 days, so we are 115 days. What has Iran learned? Iran leadership has walked away with a radical transformation in its military doctrine. You know why? Because they realize that controlling the Strait of Hormuz is more effective, cheaper, and faster than building a nuclear bomb or nuclear weapon. But don't get me wrong, it does not mean that Iranian leadership, especially now that Mujtaba'a has the support of the IRGC, will not go that route. All I'm saying is, for now, that is the first lesson they have learned. And I can see why. So, because the joint operation, the joint US and Israeli Operation Epic Fury, even though it says it decapitated Iran's leadership— yeah, you killed the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, you killed some top generals and so forth, you know, and degraded to a degree the conventional forces. With all this happening, Iran discovered, discovered something far beyond that the US, Israel, or any other country for that matter could not control. Even technology won't be able to control it. And I think that discovery centered around geography, because geography could successfully defeat a high-tech warfare. That is exactly the lesson Iran has now learned after 115 days. It, it, it tells you right there, shows you right there where things are.

So both the US and Israel are being now holding the end of the stick, per se.

And the other key takeaway, the strategic ones, that is— we're not talking about tangible here, that's not what I'm talking about. I am talking about Tehran's key strategic, uh, uh, takeaways from this 115-day conflict, and I'm going to share 2 or 3 with you because it makes perfect sense to understand this. Hormuz is Iran's real nuclear option. Washington is coming to now start to realize what are we doing here. First of all, following blindly Israel. Second, Israel is going to drag the US into another major conflict. Third, is that could the US make that decision by saying, you know what, Israel, you deal with it? And I'm going to address this point towards the end of this livestream. And here is where Western intelligence agencies— we're talking basically 2 or 3 here, we're talking DIA, we're talking actually 4, DIA, CIA, Amman, and Mossad— the ultimate goal for this, uh, uh, uh, uh, Western intelligence was Iran's ultimate goal was a nuclear warhead. Well, they were off, you know. Excuse me. The war proved that weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz provided immediate asymmetrical leverage on the global stage. That is the key, what Iran concluded, and that is the failure of the Western intelligence agency. And when you look at the economic aspect of the, of this, the economic choke point or chokehold, if I'm gonna use the term here, by choking off global energy shipments, which by the way, we are impacted. We reach— I looked at yesterday, I read the recent assessments of the SPR, the Strategic Petroleum Reserves. We have about 340 million barrels. That's about it. That's not much. We're getting closer to the danger zone. So this global energy shipment is not impacting Asia or Africa, what have you, it's impacting us also. And this is why Iran successfully triggered the global fuel crisis and fractured international market without firing a shot. So the second thing, it has to do with deterrence over technology. That falls back to my earlier point about the importance of geography. This is why in, in, in the field of political science, there is a, there's a specific discipline called political geography.

And that's part of, by the way, where geopolitics came from, the terminology of it.

So the terms over technology, the hardline officials noted that geography plays a major role in really taking over technology. Because what they have proved— meaning they, Iran, in this case the IRGC, the, the, the decision makers inside Tehran— what they have proved is that disrupting global trade created a more immediate existential threat to Washington than a nuclear bomb will do, as of now. So then you're gonna have to think in terms the other aspects of it. The thinking from Iran's perspective is that the settlement of necessity, and that falls back to the nuclear rights, Iran's nuclear right for enriching uranium for civilian technology. And that is what Iran also learned, that its nuclear program was more valuable as a permanent bargaining chip than an assembled weapon. Because once the weapon is done— and, and, and I can see the logical argument coming out of individuals inside Tehran. The best example to think of this is North Korea. And North Korea developed the nuclear weapon, but this, this is it. That's it. Is the US sitting down negotiating with North Korea? No, no. The, the, the, they are not, they are not. That is where the difference, and that's why these settlements of necessity. So, but at the same time, Iran will preserve the enrichment despite facing devastating maximum pressure from the US and Israel through the strikes which aimed at forcing an unconditional surrender. Iran successfully resisted the total capitulation. And as a matter of fact, Donald Trump signed the surrender deal.

So, and Israel is going to end up in a really, really bad spot given what's coming. There is something coming up down the pipe, and we'll talk about it in due time.

And that is again where Iran was very shrewd and smart into this, because that's what we call the leverage, uh, oversight. They have a leverage.

The—

under the newly MOU that was signed, Tehran agreed to international oversight but firmly protected its right to conduct civilian uranium enrichment on its own soil. That tells you right there, they didn't give up anything. And that is, again, with this, it leads you to understand the asymmetric defiance that outlasts conventional supremacy that the US and Israel are displaying. So despite losing— in the case of Iran, despite losing its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, despite losing major, major air defense systems, despite the conventional naval assets— Iran realized it did not need conventional military parity.

To fight the United States to a standstill, or Israel for that matter.

You all remember early June when Iran fired missiles at Israel. The Iron Dome was useless. So, and that's why Iran went ahead with the small unconventional approach using small fast attack boats, using naval mines, using mobile ballistic missiles. All this played a role in really shaping the trajectory of the conflict, or the war for that matter. And realized— and I'm sorry, Israel and the US realized that they just couldn't, couldn't keep up with all this. And this is why— and you add to this one— is when Iran issued the blockade. Because he maintained his blockade, uh, on the Strait of Hormuz, inflicting enough economic damage to induce US war fatigue. That's exactly the strategy of Iran. And by doing that, it's forcing Donald Trump to shift from demanding unconditional surrender to signing the surrender deal or paper or document or agreement or whatever term you would like to use. And I did use the term surrender, and there are some well-established, uh, geopolitical analysts agree with my assessment as well. And I'm gonna share a clip with you to prove it to you. And the other aspect is, one of the key aspects has to do with the shift. We're talking about the pivot towards the Eastern Shield, which is very important, realizing that Western diplomatic, uh, some sort of agreement are highly volatile. Why? Because the US goes back and forth. Israel undermines anything the US does or trying to agree with Iran, uh, on. So Iran's surviving leadership has doubled down on a sort of the where things are going not only domestically, but how to deal with the US and Israel moving forward. And that, to me, is a key, key factor in deciding the trajectory of what lies ahead, which will be my next segment after this clip. If the truth matters to you, hit like, subscribe, and tap that bell.

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Indeed.

So the next question I'm ask is, is the Strait of Hormuz a lesson in deterrence? Once again, I, I find it as, uh, uh, pardon me. I find it as a logical question to ask because the Strait of Hormuz is the world's premier lesson in geographic and economic deterrence. That's why the rest of the world now is watching. The 115-day war proved that controlling global energy checkpoints provide non-nuclear state with a geopolitical kill switch that can rival the deterrent effect of a nuclear bomb. Yeah, some say, well, might not be the same degree, Dr. Oualaalou. Well, of course it will not be same degree, but just think about what China will be thinking about the Strait of Malacca, or Singapore for that matter, or Indonesia, or Malaysia. That's my point. Think about the, uh, Bab-el-Mandeb right there. Think about the Red Sea. Think about certain areas within the Black Sea. That's my point. So because the Strait of Hormuz redefined the asymmetric deterrence, that's exactly what happened with now what Iran just did by closing the Strait of Hormuz once again. It, it made the point that geography beat high-tech warfare, as I mentioned earlier.

So, and I'm not going to repeat myself here.

So, uh, the other thing you need to think about it is the terms of— we know this between the US and, uh, between US and Russia, between US and China, uh, the, the, the MAD, it's called MAD, Mutual Assured Destruction. Okay, there is something also similar to this that I am coming to realize with this, uh, moves by Iran, and that it could be used as, uh, this, uh, M, MAE— Mutual Assured Economic Destruction. That's the way I see it, because traditional reliance relies on the threat of a nuclear complete destruction, right? The Strait of Hormuz introduced something different, a new model if, if I may use the term, economic destruction. Because just for Iran, by threatening to cut off 20% of the world petroleum, Iran can instantly trigger global inflation if it wants to, stock markets crashes, and the political unrest in Western democracies. All it needs to do is shut down the Strait of Hormuz, and that in itself allows it because it's a low-cost, high-leverage defense. That's exactly the strategy of Iran, and it seems to be success— succeeding at it at this point. So building and maintaining a nuclear arsenal invites crushing sanctions, international isolation, and the constant threat of preemptive military strikes. In contrast, when you think about the different approach Leveraging the Strait of Hormuz in the case of Iran costs Iran very little. It relies on a natural geography, and at the same time, it provides diplomatic leverage. And what do I mean by that diplomatic leverage? Is by when Iran will force this great power, superpower, whatever you want to call it, America in this case, to negotiate. And the ultimate proof of Hormuz deterrent power was the shift in American strategy, the signing— remember the surrender deal— despite launching a devastating airstrike during Operation Epic Fury. You know, everybody was under the impression, oh, the US and Israel is going to crash, is going to bomb carpet bombing of Iran and render it like flatland. None of that happened. Because the US ultimately abandoned its demand for Iran unconditional surrender. You all remember this, it's on a record. Go back and check Donald Trump's first speech after he got the order for the attack. And we won't accept— and I'm paraphrasing here, this is what Donald Trump said— we will not accept anything, uh, less than unconditional surrender. No, because what we just saw happened in Versailles. We saw him, he chose to sign, even though Western media call it a negotiated ceasefire. I call it a surrender deal for one reason: to get the oil flowing again, especially for the US. And if the Central Command is coming by saying, oh, the traffic in Strait of Hormuz is open, ships are crossing. No, it's a lie. It is a lie. Because what it has showed and what Iran demonstrated, it demonstrated to the rest of the world that whatever the US is saying regarding maritime security is limited, or maritime deterrence is limited. So, and that is exactly where you have to understand how Iran is navigating this very, very shrewdly. Using the Strait of Hormuz as a weapon requires Iran to actively disrupt global commerce. That's where— I mean, Iran will, will get impacted also economically, but this risk completely aligning it, uh, or sort of alienate its economic or crucial economic partners like China in this case. But at the same—

because China relies heavily on Persian Gulf oil.

But of course, Chinese at some point will step in if they start to realize it's starting to have major effect on the domestic production inside China. For now, China is not saying anything yet. So, and this leads me to the next question, and the next question is What's next in the Iran-US-Israel conflict? So, because the next phase of the US-Iran conflict centers on a high-stakes race between diplomatic technical negotiations in Switzerland and the imminent of renewed maritime warfare in the Persian Gulf, don't assume that we are going back to diplomacy permanently. No. The military option still on the table, except it's not going to favor the US or Israel in this case. Why? Because you have another country now that is stepping forward, and I'm going to disclose this to you towards the end. So, so think about this one, and I'm going to take you quickly to Switzerland where JD Vance is right now, where the Iranian delegation is right now.

But as a matter of fact, the Iranian delegation just walked away. They walked out completely.

So yesterday, 48 hours, it was disclosed that both delegations, negotiators from Washington and from Tehran, are converging in, uh, Birkenstock in Switzerland to hash out the final details of the interim memorandum of understanding, which means it is not final. But the problem is, of course, the US delegation was led by, uh, the Vice President, JD Vance. And what the American delegation already going with this attitude of, oh, you know what, we're gonna push for the strict permanent, uh, international oversight of Iran civilian uranium enrichment. You know, it's like we're going back to square one. You know, you think the American negotiations— negotiators have learned something from the last few months? Apparently not, because here is what the US is demanding. Also, US is demanding explicit, verifiable guarantees that Iran will never again close or mine the Strait of Hormuz. Well, I say I say to Washington, good luck with that. Because what happened when the— as soon as the delegation arrived, by the way, Donald Trump issued a threat against the delegation. As a matter of fact, there were reports of the possibility of assassinating one of the negotiators.

That's Muhammad— his name is Muhammad Bakir, uh, uh, Kalibaf.

He's a, he's a, he's a politician. He's a former IRGC brigadier general who served as the Speaker of Parliament of Iran since 2020. And as of April 2026, he has been described as handling the strategic matters of Iran. And this is why the delegation of Iran walked out. They walked out in protest after Donald Trump threatened to strike Iran over its support for Hezbollah. I mean, you will think that Donald Trump have learned something. Apparently not. Not the case. And that is why we're seeing what we are seeing—

their shock about when Iran shuts down the Strait of Hormuz with no no, at a short moment notice.

Nobody knew it was coming. So, so I'm going to share a clip with you to show you, because I like to show you proof of where things are.

Uh, this is in Switzerland and it just happened, and I confirmed it this morning, uh, before I uploaded to my computer to share it with you.

Take a listen, please.

Delegation refuses to shake hands with the US. The Iranian delegation refuses to shake hands with the US delegation. So I guess things aren't going too well with these peace talks in Switzerland. Subscribe.

So that's the delegation leaving, uh, uh, Switzerland.

So that means what?

There is not— no, no, no talks.

No need to talk because Iran made it clear, till you halt, you force Israel to halt its attacks on Lebanon, Iran is moving forward with whatever it needs to do. So, and that leads us to address the maritime flashpoint. Because now with this happening, because the diplomatic talks, while they are— I don't even know if there are any open talks. To me, there's nothing. One thing is factual, one thing is sure, is that the situation in the waters, in the Strait of Hormuz, remain incredibly volatile.

As of today, especially after Iran went ahead and shut down the Strait of Hormuz. That is the key to all this.

An Iran unilateral declaration closing the Strait of Hormuz now created some sort of an operational paradox. Paradox for whom? For Iran? No, it's for the US, because the US has no options. Basically, we have lost the war. We're just now trying to figure out how we can get out of it. Trump has no other alternative but to sort of, uh, formally agree to that surrender deal he signed that is going to go into effect.

Because remember, it was just a memorandum of understanding. It's not official yet.

And that is why when you hear— and I read the statement this morning from the Central Command, which I do not believe— this blockade, the US Central Command insists that the strait is open and traffic is flowing safely under American military monitoring. Well, I have my doubt on that. I have my doubt on that. So, but at the same time, US is asking now to— is going to levy 20% transit fee, all of a sudden the US will be making money out of that. It's kind of, you know, it's absurd how US doesn't, doesn't see the reality for what it is. So, and that is why now Donald Trump is issuing these threats, you know. He warned that any physical attempt by Iran to disrupt shipping will trigger a full aggressive US military seizure of the waterways. Well, here we are. Iran already shut down the Strait of Hormuz. What you going to do about it? That's why my point for highlighting this is to highlight to you that the world has now come to a sure reality, is that all the US is doing is bluffing. That's it. And this, Iran has proved them—

proved the US that He's just bluffing, no more, no less.

No, of course I cannot overlook the wild cards. And the wild cards, my reference is to the escalation risks. I'm not going to rule that out. And I've said it a month and a half ago, despite these negotiations, despite the role of Pakistan, despite whatever, I still will not trust. Because even I And here is the way I see it, and again, I am talking based on facts. I've been around long enough to know how Washington operates. I was inside Washington. So what I foresee is, even if the dust settles on this, and if this doesn't end according to what Iran wants, we could revisit this issue 8, 9, or 10 years from today. That is why I'm seeing with the US statements of the guardian angel transit tax, that's a hint for what lies ahead. 20% tariff on crude oil transit into Strait of Hormuz. Yeah, just think about it. Of course, the Gulf Arab states will be happy to pay, you know, those, uh, they just, uh I, I just don't know how they live with themselves, you know.

They just—

but at the same time, you start seeing now some changes too, because they depend so much on oil.

If it's—

if it weren't for oil, we won't be talking about the Gulf States— Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Oman, for that matter— we won't be talking about that. But to be fair, they are moving into a different direction. Different trajectory. And the way you can tell that they are is by having— which I show you a clip of it—

is by having the foreign minister of Qatar snobbing JD Vance, didn't even shake hands with him.

It's because Qatar was hoping that the US will defend it.

It did not.

Saudi Arabia was hoping that US will defend it.

It did not.

United Arab Emirates, it did not.

So that's my point.

So, and the bigger of them all is the Israeli-Lebanon factor, because Iran— here is the thing— Iran directly links the Strait of Hormuz closure to the Israeli action in southern Lebanon. And any, any major breakdown of the ceasefire on Israeli northern border will instantly— will instantly sort of, uh, trigger— it will trigger a corresponding escalation in the Persian Gulf. And as a result, the, the negotiations or the talks in Switzerland will be absolutely, yeah, useless anyway. And I think it's going into that direction moving forward. When you have the delegation, uh, walks out They didn't even— as a matter of fact, the Americans— I got a word that the Americans wants to take a picture with the Iranian delegations, and the Iranian delegation said no, we don't want pictures with you, we don't want that. It's the same argument Donald Trump made about the Prime Minister of Italy.

I don't have a single picture of Donald Trump, that's why I showed this one.

Uh, uh, Giorgia Meloni, he's saying that Giorgia Meloni is begging him for a picture.

It's idiotic, you know, but again, what people voted for, so they have to live with the consequences of that vote.

And I'm getting to the end here, but before I do the conclusion, there is one serious issue that we're going to have to address. And that issue is, or the question rather, is Israel screwed? And the part of that question is, can it fight Iran alone? Which, by the way, 79% of you said Israel will not be able to take on— will not be able to go at it alone.

That was the question that I asked back then in the survey.

So of course you have Western analysts are saying, oh no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, Israel is not helpless. Israel has advanced systems Air Force and all that, which is true. I'm not denying that. It's just when they say that Israel possesses overwhelming technological and conventional military superiority, well, yeah, how did this hold up when Iran launched missiles and the Iron Dome failed to intercept? How did it hold up when Iran launched Khorramshahr-4, destroying parts of Ben Gurion Airport. Where was this technological advancements? Where was the Iron Dome? And that's my point, because if we are to look at it logically, if I am to put the map of the West Asia just from here—

think of it just from here, but it will not show what exactly I want to show you.

What I want to show you is right there. Think about the distance from where Israel is and where Iran is. It's not a small distance. And with that, you have to think about the strategic doctrine that is fundamentally for Israel that is built on geographic limitations. That's why I'm saying geography— Iran is using geography, uh, as a weapon now. It's because for Israel, the short conflict, the, the US logistical backing Assuming it doesn't have any of that if he wants alone. That's why a solo war for Israel against Iran will push Israel to its absolute strategic and economic defeat and complete destruction. So the better, the better thing— and as a matter of fact, there's now an upcoming elections inside Israel, and it makes you just wonder about the political scene that not all Israelis are seeing what Netanyahu is doing is right. And that's why I disagree with some analysts that have argued that, oh, Israel is highly capable. Yeah, I'm not denying that it has the weapons because we give it all the advanced weapons. But at the same time, he proved that when Iran starts launching the hypersonic, the Iron Dome or the, the, uh, the slang, David slang, or the Arrow 2/3 stood no chance. So if you have these advanced weapons that, you know, same for us when, uh, when we were in the Red Sea and Ansarullah start firing missiles, we realized that what if they have something that can sink an aircraft carrier? We didn't know what they have. So, and we end up moving the, uh, Harry Truman up north the Red Sea, far away from the reach of the missile. And when— and then again, and I'm just— I'm not, you know, those analysts are entitled to their opinion, and I'm just pushing back against something that I was on the ground. I spent a lot of time in the region. I'm very familiar with really how things worked because I was in the middle of some of that. It's just when they are saying, oh, there is an unmatched missile defense, because they're saying Israel possesses the most advanced multi-layer air defense, the Iron Dome, the David's Sling and Arrow, and so forth. And I find myself have to push back against that narrative, because this kind of defense system proved that it could not withstand the barrage of missiles from Iran. Something I argued some 8 years ago when I said— when I was doing the research for my book and so forth, for the Iran book. And I argued back then that, uh, if, if, if, if Israel ever attacked Iran, Iran is going to launch a barrage of missiles that the Iron Dome will not be able to withstand. And of course, you know, some say what the government's like, well, Mr. O, We don't want you disclose— like, no, why? It's the truth. And that is why I'm pushing against this analyst. I'm not saying they're wrong. All I'm saying is they have to be objective and realistic in their assessment. That's all I'm saying. The other aspect is, one, the advantage Israel has is the unspoken deterrent in reference to the nuclear triad, because it has this nuclear triad. Land-based missiles, submarine, and aircraft. They do have that. Will Israel resolve into using nuclear weapon? I don't know. I don't know. All I know is that if they do, Israel will be done for. That's all I know. So, uh, will Iran be devastated? Of course. Will the whole region be devastated?

Of course.

Where the whole global security, uh, architecture will, uh, will turn upside down. Absolutely. So, and that is where again, uh, this provides some sort of an ultimate existential guarantee that prevents Iran or any other regional power from attempting a total destruction of, of Israel. But in the case of Iran being attacked, Iran already proved they got nothing to lose. They're going for it. That's why we didn't understand when we get into this conflict of, of, of, of not even of our choosing. We didn't think in terms of can they fight, and they proved because we made the mistake thinking that Iran is Venezuela, Iran is Afghanistan, Iran is Iraq. But when you think about why the long term— in the long term, Israel— that's my thinking, how I see it. In the long term, Israel cannot fight Iran alone in the long term. So the first one, geography, the distance. Remember that map I showed you right there? The distance— Iran is located over 1,000 kilometers over 600 miles from Israel. So to launch a sustained airstrike, Israel jets must fly across many, many hostile and sovereign Arab airspace like Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, which by the way they will allow. Don't ever assume that they're going to say no. They'll say no to their people, domestic consumption, but behind the scenes they will allow Israelis because They did it before. They did it before. Even inside Iraq recently, the Iraqi government had no idea what was flying over its airspace because we blinded some of the satellite stuff.

We, meaning we, the US, in conjunction with Israel.

So, and that is why Israel lacks the massive fleet of refueling tanks. Needed to maintain around-the-clock bombing campaign without foreign staging access. This is where the role of the US come in. And if this is not enough as far as the geography, you think about the logistic supply chain. Israel cannot, cannot fight a short, intense war independently. He can't.

He can't.

On the other hand, a prolonged war of attrition requires a continuous supply of interceptor missiles, precision-guided missiles, munitions, spare parts, and you have what have you. And this is where the Israeli— without the US, they can't survive. Even Donald Trump said it, even though that's for, uh, for theatrics, no more no less. I don't trust what Donald Trump's saying. That's just for a show, for show. Because Donald Trump is not in charge.

Let me just— then you think about the no ground invasion capability for Israel, and that's, that's a given.

And I'm not even talking about the asymmetric war of attrition. How is that? Iran does not need to invade Israel.

Doesn't need to do that.

No, no, no, no, does not need that conventionally speaking, you know, you know, just is going to let the Axis of resistance do the work.

You have Hezbollah, you have Ansarullah, you have Iraqi militias of different, uh, stripes from society.

And that in itself will force Israel into a multi-front war of attrition, draining Israeli economy, safety, and paralyzes its domestic workforce. So, and I said it like 4 or 5 months ago that Israel will not be able to sustain 3-front war. One from Hezbollah, one from Iran, one from Ansarullah. And that is why the ground invasion is out of question.

We can't even talk about that because it won't make any sense. Israel will not be able to.

And that is exactly my point in all this.

And I wanted to address this for you because you're going to be hearing so many statements by, uh, by, uh, by the White House now, Donald Trump trying to soften the blow. Uh, the Central Command is saying what it's not true, when in reality none of that— it, it's happening as we speak.

And when you think about, uh, Iran still have thousands of missiles as we speak, so Israel would stand no chance.

So the question is whether Donald Trump is going to follow through with what he said Oh, Israel, you're on your own.

He, he will be forced to reverse course.

That is my thinking.

So it is my conclusion for you, and I'm going to play the clips for you as promised.

But before I'll do this conclusion, I want to talk to you briefly, briefly, and I will do a live stream for you, an analysis about something is in the works right now, and this one has to do with Turkey and Iran. And that's all I'm going to say about it right now. Because I am waiting till I confirm certain things.

And I'll be on the lookout this week.

As a matter of fact, if I get any confirmation this afternoon, I will be, uh, you, you, you all know my responsibility towards you, towards the whole community.

This is why I'm encouraging you, please subscribe and please share this video with others. A lot of people around the world needs to hear the truth, and I count on you. That's all I have.

I don't have sponsors.

I don't have, you know, I'm by myself here.

And of course, Elizabeth is helping me out behind the scenes technically, you know. She's, she's a genius, genius when it comes down to this stuff.

So, and so I'm gonna be doing this for you because there is one major development can reshape really, really the trajectory, the geopolitical one, that is for, for West Asia, but also is going to put Israel in a really, really bad position, and the US will be forced to make a decision.

So I'm not— that's all I have to say about that one. So let me, let me share my conclusion here, and we'll move into some, uh, some clips that worth your time.

Now, as the dust settles to a degree, you know, there is one truth That is clear. One truth. When Israel, you know, boost about its unmatched military techn— technology and so forth. So, but when you take a step back and you put the map of West Asia in front of you—

let me put it up right there—

you realize that geography and logistics mean it cannot fight a prolonged war with Iran completely alone and without a constant lifeline from the United States. Without that, what you have— you have the sheer math of a multi-front war of attrition changes everything. So, so if the US— so here is, here's my question for you. If the US would now— Iran suddenly, suddenly, unexpectedly, 3 days after that digital signing of the MOU, shut down the Strait of Hormuz. So here's a question for you: if the US completely stepped back, how long do you think Israel could hold out against the entire Axis of Resistance alone? So I really would like to read your comments about this one. And what I'm going to do, because here's the thing, the balance of power in West Asia has just completely shifted now, and the math behind this conflict doesn't lie. That is the truth. And that's why, to me, for us, our community, and to those who might be joining us later on, whatever, uh, I would say let's settle this this in the comment section. If the US completely steps back, how long do you think, honestly, think Israel could hold out against Iran alone, by the way? So here's what I'm going to do. What I'm going to do, I'm going to be replying to the best comments over the next 24 hours.

Because remember, I spend time researching for it, so I can't spend so many hours just dealing with the comments all of them, but I do look and I do read because your feedback matters to me, and I want you to know that one.

So once again, if the US completely stepped back, how long do you honestly think Israel could hold out against, uh, Iran and its proxies entirely alone? And I'm gonna put this—

I, I will pin this comment when I, when I finish here so you'll have it in front of you.

All right, let's do some clips now that I promised you. The first one I'm gonna do is from a well-established, uh, professor, and, and what I found very interesting about it is I used the term way before. Now, this is not about me first, he's, he's first. No, no, no, it's not about that. It's about understanding the alignment of the same thinking. Remember when I used the term surrender? Deal.

I want you to listen to this one here. Take a listen, please. Oh, let me share it first.

And by the way, I did reach out to Professor Morandi, and I didn't get a response.

Maybe he didn't see the email. To anybody who knows Professor Morandi, I would love to have him here on the channel. We'll have a, a nice conversation if you can let him know that I have sent an email and would love to have him here.

So let's take a listen.

Of the sharpest geopolitical minds alive today, and what he's about to lay out is something that Israel spent months telling the world Iran was an unhinged regime that everyone should fear. But when the actual fighting happened, Iran called the US directly to warn them to evacuate their bases first. That's not what a dangerous irrational country does. Watch. Israel is in its last days. That's not me saying it. That's Professor John Mearsheimer, one of the sharpest geopolitical minds alive today. And what he's about to lay out is something Netanyahu clearly did not see coming. Watch this.

Israel has put the United States in a position where it really has no choice but to cut a deal with the Iranians that is, in effect, a surrender agreement.

Uh, the last thing the Israelis want to do is pick a fight with us now and make it even more difficult for us to operationalize disagreement.

It's just not in their interest. They ought to accept the fact that they helped lead us into a foolish war. It's gone south very quickly, and now the United States and Israel should work together to do everything they can to minimize the damage. That should be their view of this situation. But as you would expect from the Israelis, they're incapable of introspection of this sort, and instead what they want to do is pick a fight with the Trump administration, which is just going to make from their point of view, a bad situation worse.

That's Mearsheimer breaking it down in plain terms. His assessment is blunt. This deal between the U.S. and Iran isn't a win. It's an escape hatch from a war that went badly wrong. And the reaction inside Israel's ruling class has reportedly been fury. U.S. intelligence has reportedly circulated assessments warning that Netanyahu is actively working to sabotage any lasting peace with Iran. Under intense pressure at home to keep fighting. That same tension boiled over publicly at the UN, where Israel's ambassador erupted during a session, shouting over other delegates and demanding silence instead of answering for the allegations on the table. Even Israeli media has turned on Trump. A newspaper owned by the casino billionaire who poured more money into Trump's campaign than almost anyone published an open letter accusing him of betrayal. Claiming he'd signed away American interests to a hostile regime. If you think this story deserves more attention than it's getting, hit like, drop a comment, and subscribe.

All right, uh, because I have other clips, uh, I just wanted to share that with you first.

Second one is about, uh, uh, what, what's going to be happening, uh, to Israel moving forward.

Okay, Let me back this up first. All right, hold on a second. Sorry, guys. All right, let me upload it here and share screen. All right, take a lesson, please.

It may be too early to call it a complete split. Is it possible that the United States has started losing the support of its most important ally? It may be too early to call it a complete split, but recent events suggest something has changed. A proposed U.S.-Iran deal has highlighted disagreements that are becoming harder to ignore. One key issue is Lebanon. While parts of the agreement reportedly support Lebanese sovereignty, Israel has continued operations against what it sees as security threats. Reports indicate senior U.S. officials have become more vocal, urging Israeli leaders to adapt to shifting regional realities. The bigger concern is military support. The United States remains Israel's primary defense partner, providing critical weapons, missile interceptors, and advanced military systems. At the G7, Trump reportedly warned against actions that could fuel instability and undermine diplomatic efforts. Some analysts argue Washington now sees further escalation as a threat to its broader Middle East goals. Meanwhile, critics in Israel say parts of the deal give Iran too many benefits. For now, the alliance remains strong. But the disagreements are becoming impossible to ignore.

All right. And that is exactly when he mentioned about Lebanon part. There were the bodies of 12 IDF soldiers. I'm just showing you a picture of 2 here. They were flown back to Israel. They were killed basically, and one of them, to my knowledge, was burned inside the tank. So Hezbollah did put a trap for the Israeli soldiers, and of course, the Israelis are going to minimize how many. To my knowledge, they were 12. That's maybe the number could be higher than that. Next one is about— I forget even what it was about. So But let me, let me upload it first. Okay, uh, let's show this one here. Yeah, that's the one, that's the one about, uh, okay, hold on a second, let me start it all over again. Take a listen.

Israel's military is in total shock And honestly, they should be. A Hezbollah force crossed the border and fired directly at Israeli soldiers, something the IDF swore could never happen. Why the surprise? Because Israel controls a security strip kilometers deep inside Lebanon. The land is flat and open with no trees or walls for hundreds of meters. You can see a rabbit run across it. Yet somehow Hezbollah fighters slipped through, crossed into occupied territory, opened fire, and caused total panic. The Israeli military's own radio reporter, Doron Kadosh, admits the security apparatus is completely stunned. They thought every inch was clean.

They were wrong.

And here's where it gets darker. While Israeli soldiers were getting caught off guard, their own national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gavir, was in a cabinet meeting calling for the kidnapping of Lebanese women and children. Yes, you heard that correctly. Women and children to be thrown in Israeli prisons as a way to to break Hezbollah spirit. That's not self-defense, that's a straight-up war crime.

That is true. As a matter of fact, as a matter of fact, Ben-Gvir, the national security advisor in Israel, calling now for burning, burning Israel, burning Lebanon, which is—

man, how, how much a man, how much a person can get to this level of, of animosity?

That's just beyond me.

But again, that, that's karma will come back. Karma will come back.

Uh, next clip is about, uh, Trump and Israel. Here, uh, here is this one here to show you, just to highlight.

I still— and again, but again, my opinion, I, I, I don't believe this.

I just I don't believe that is real. I mean, it happened, it's just not real.

There would be no Israel without the United States. There would be no Israel without me. There would be no Israel because no other president was willing to do what I did. I've had a great relationship with Bibi, but now Bibi has to be more responsible with respect to Lebanon. Lebanon used to be a great country. It was a country where you had professors, doctors, lawyers. The great intellect was in Lebanon. Now it's just— it's terrible. I would say of all countries, they've been treated the worst, and they can't defend themselves, and they have Hezbollah, which is a problem for them. So, uh, no, I'm not happy with the way Israel has handled themselves with Lebanon and with Hezbollah.

By the way, Mr. President, Hezbollah is not a problem for them. Hezbollah is a force to reckon with. Its force is far stronger than the government, the military people inside the Lebanese government. So Donald Trump doesn't understand exactly what's going on with that.

Next clip is, I think this one was Somehow it's not—

the date of it couldn't confirm. Uh, this one from Scott Ritter, as you know, you all know Scott, right? But this one I'm, I'm aware of the when it happened, when Iran launched the Khorramshahr-4. Uh, I just wanted you to hear the take from Scott Ritter's perspective. Take a listen, please.

Mainstream media is about to tell you about what happened at Ben Gurion Airport in the early hours of this morning, because what Iran just did and I mean just did, is not simply another missile strike in a long list of exchanges. What happened at 2:47 this morning is a strategic inflection point, and by the time I'm done walking you through this, you are going to understand exactly why this single strike may have changed the fundamental calculus of this entire war. Four Khorramshahr-4 ballistic missiles hit Ben Gurion International Airport before dawn. Not the perimeter fence, not a cargo shed on the edge of the airfield, the main terminal, the primary runway, the fuel storage complex. And as of right now, Israel's only major international airport, the gateway through which 24 million passengers passed last year, is not damaged and limping along. It is not closed pending assessment. It is not functioning at all. I want you to sit with that for a moment because I've spent decades in military intelligence and I've analyzed strikes across multiple theaters of conflict. And what Iran executed this morning is not the work of a desperate adversary throwing missiles at a map and hoping something lands. This was deliberate, methodical, and surgically planned targeting logic designed by people who understand exactly what they need.

Yeah, Scott is right. I mean, the idea of— and I can understand Scott's background in military intelligence. I was in one as well, just on different, uh, departments and so forth. But I can understand his assessment, so, and it makes more sense. So I want you to hear it directly. Next one is about, as I mentioned earlier, Qatar ignoring the VP, uh, JD Vance, which gives you an idea how the Gulf states now starting to see the United States. Take a listen here, please.

Prime Minister completely snubs JD Vance. He shakes the hand of Pakistan's Prime Minister and then walks away, completely ignoring JD Vance and the US delegation. Why? Most likely because Trump just threatened to murder the Iranian delegation, which caused them to walk out. Subscribe. Prime Minister complete. Minister completely cutters.

Yeah, take a listen here and pay attention to the body language. Especially Vance realizing, JD Vance realizing that Qatari Prime, uh, Foreign Minister ignored him completely.

Prime Minister completely snubs JD Vance. He shakes the hand of Pakistan's Prime Minister and then walks away, completely ignoring JD Vance and the US delegation.

Why?

Most likely because Trump just threatened to murder the Iranian delegation, which caused them to walk out. Subscribe for—

that is the reason why the delegation walked out in Switzerland because of that threat. And there were intelligence informations suggesting that might have been, and I quote here, might have been an attempt on Kalibaf and some other members of the delegation, which will be a violation because that's why Pakistan warned the Israelis against such an act.

And that was the last clip I wanted to share with you.

As I mentioned earlier, I will be, uh, working on the story of Iran and Turkey because it's something worth your time and you need to know about it as we move forward. Before I sign off, I want to say thank you, uh, once again, like always, to those who've been supporting the channel. Uh, uh, Flying Bar, thank you so much for your Super Sticker. Truly appreciate you for that. Uh, can you have Giant Bhandari on your show please and talk about India?

I can.

I just have to remember they took down one of my videos, they put a strike on my channel, you know. I'm gonna have to— and I know some inside the New Delhi are watching what I'm talking about because I disclosed the truth. So I'm gonna reach out to Giant and we'll talk about— I have a topic in mind that I would like to address it with him. So we, uh, and I will do that soon. So thank you again for your Super Sticker.

Uh, Given Baptist, Kevin, I can't thank you enough, man, for your continued support.

You've been an avid supporter, and I'm very, very grateful to you for that. I love what Dr. Warick Powell said on Substack: Iran has moved on from survival mode to an ambitious stance geopolitically. Indeed, I'm yet to read his article And I will have, uh, uh, Warwick, uh, on the channel here soon, within about a week. Usually I invite him and Aina Tengen towards the end of the month. Same with, uh, uh, Carlza. I always have them on a month. So I'm gonna reach out to Warwick soon. So once again, thank you, Kevin. Truly appreciate your support. Uh, and the next person is Naz.

Once again, Naz, I am very, very grateful for your support.

And Naz been an avid supporter of the channel also. So we might not see, uh, much of, of the, of here on the live stream given the schedule, but I'm very, very grateful to you for that. I don't agree with Professor Mosheimer that Israel took us in this war. US government is behind this war. US supplies Israel everything. US is calling all the shots, and the deal with Iran is all theater as US is not serious.

You got a point there. You got a point there because, and again, One thing that I can tell you is I do know for a fact is that the, the Big Four—

we call them Big Four in Washington—

Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Boeing, and Raytheon— those four are the ones dictating American foreign policy.

Of course, why? Because of the military aspects of it. So, so would not be surprised that they've been pushing behind the scenes, because look who made more money in the last quarter, this Big Four. So I see your point, Naz. Truly, truly appreciate you. And I wanted to share with the community a different perspective from other well-established geopolitical analysts, just we have different ideas, you know. This way I like to have variety of thoughts for the community, and of course you and all of the rest of members of the community reach your own conclusion on that. So, so once again, thank you so much.

Uh, for those who wants to— uh, oh, I need to give a shout out to Aslan Tahir, uh, for becoming a new member of the, uh, uh, uh, channel on Buy Me Coffee.

So thank you very much for your new membership in support of the channel. And here is the link for those who wants either to buy me coffee or become a member, whatever you feel comfortable with. Uh, uh, here is the link for it. So, so that person is Aslan Tahir. Thank you so much for that. I also want to give a shout out to, uh, uh, two individuals who bought me cups of teas in support of my upcoming Asia trip. And here is the link if you want to support that. The first person is— it just says someone, uh, Contact Finn Now. That's all it is, the screen name. Thank you so much for buying me cups of teas in support of my upcoming Asia trip. And the next person is from, uh, uh, my, my neighbor in the north, from Canada, from Susan. Susan, thank you so much for buying me, uh, cups of tea in support of my upcoming Asia trip, and here is the link for it if you guys decide to support the, that, that trip, if you feel comfortable doing so. Speaking of the trip, uh, I need to show you an update of the fundraising. We are at $4,894. Still have a long way to go. We didn't even cross $50 yet. I hope to reach that, the target goal. It's because of the location that I have to go to. It costs even within, within where I'm gonna be, I have to travel even longer. So that's why I put this, uh, fundraising at this number here. I am hoping some wealthy donor will be enough to support the trip. That would be very, very great. And again, this is not about tourism.

I want to put that on the record.

If I want to go on tourism, I'll go on my own dime. Because it's the right thing to do. So this is in support of the channel. So, and the last link I will share with you is if you want to get a copy of my, my, uh, my books, uh, that I wrote here about Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and American foreign policy in the Middle East. So, so that's the— that's where you can get a copy. Of those books. So the last link I'll show with you, I'll share with you, is from Substack. If you want to subscribe to my Substack, I write some articles there. Those are analytical. Uh, if you want to take a look at them, here is the link for you to subscribe. It's free. Uh, I'm not doing, uh, I know some said, well, Dr. O, you can do for a membership for this. No, I choose not to do it for this one here. So, so Anyway, I hope, uh, you enjoyed this live stream here, and I look forward to seeing you next time when I do the next topic for you. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, bye-bye.