China, Iran, Russia Host Naval Drills in the Gulf of Oman! A Message to the US?

All right, hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Very, very, very excited to be with you. It's because of the topic I'm going to be addressing, something I'm very familiar with given that I wrote, uh, two books on each country, one on each country, and the third one on China. So China, Russia, and Iran conducting naval drills and what it all means geopolitically. So this is what I'm going to be addressing for you today, provide you my own insights and analysis and so forth. And we go— I'll answer a question or two from you guys. So before I'll do this, let me just see who's here. Willie Harmon, as always, from Memphis, Arkansas. Good to see you. Boyan Su from Canada. Good to see you. Marcian Dorcier, good to see you from Chicago. Good to see you guys. Yeah, this is what I'm gonna be addressing for you today. It's, it's an interesting topic. And but before I do this, I want to give, uh, suggest some housekeeping stuff. Housekeeping, rather. Don't forget to join me tonight at 1900 hours Central Time, Standard Time, for my interview with Adjunct Professor Warwick Powell from Brisbane in Australia. Very, very insightful, guys, and you truly want to hear what he has to say. And also tomorrow I will be having my, uh, good friend Richard Turin from Shanghai, China. We will be talking about AI and digital currency and so forth. So another, another perspective from someone who knows exactly what's going on with the financial markets around the world. So don't forget to join me for that for tomorrow at 2100 hours. I already posted this in the community post. Just check it out, uh, if you didn't see it already. So, all right, let's, let's, uh, me highlight, uh, uh, oh, Carmel Crush, good to see you. Hongwan, good to see you. Sankton, good to see you. Jen from New Mexico, good to see you. Hamad City, good to see you as always from UK. Uh, all right guys, as I said, uh, today's topic Uh, it's very interesting because you look at 3 countries that are at odds with the United States— Russia, China, and Iran. So they are staging now naval drills. Naval drills started, uh, yesterday, the day before. So they are about for next 3, 2 days. They should be over tomorrow, if I'm not mistaken. So, and the drills are also— the location is very interesting. It's— they are being conducted at the Gulf of Oman, which I will provide you some geography and history about it. So, and this is very interesting because they are putting this under what's called Maritime Security Belt 2024. Yeah, it will be about the maritime security, but there is also the other things that have not been talked about, and this is where analysis comes in, and that's what I'm gonna be providing you with. Well, of course, we're gonna have to ask the key fundamental questions. And the key fundamental questions are— I already put them here, let me share them with you right here. How significant those drills are? Yes, it is a routine, uh, scheduled— that was scheduled for you months ago. It's the timing of it. So how significant that is. Second thing is, what is the message to the US? And the reason I say this is because you have to take into consideration what's taking place right now in the region. So nothing happens in a vacuum when it comes down to geopolitical landscape. The naval drills, while they are military, they are also sending a geopolitical message or a direct message to the United States. And the third one, is this a clear sign of the shift in global power? And, uh, we can't ignore that question either. Because you can assume just, uh, uh, yes, we are aware of the changes, the multipolar world that is emerging, uh, before our own eyes. But also you have to keep in mind the global shift in power, because this is where the key aspects of it— and this is what I'm going to highlight to you in general term, in addition to my own analysis that I did from my both books, the one about Russia and the one about Iran. So I'll be sharing with you all this. Before I delve deeper, let's do some headlines like we always do. So let me start with some— I got some interesting, uh, stuff going on around the world, so I'll be sharing some with you. I don't know whether you heard it or not, but it won't matter. So we're going to be sharing this with you. Here's the first one here. What are you looking at? You're looking at doctors in South Korea. They began the proceedings to suspend, because that's what the government now is doing. The government trying to start to suspend licenses for more than 4,900 striking doctors. How, how idiotic of the government to even be thinking about that. Well, on Monday, that's when it started. They began to proceed into the government, that is the South Korean government, which is pathetic for what they doing, suspending the licenses of more than 4,900 young doctors who stopped working in protest at a reform aimed at improving medical care. I mean, you think about the government should do the right thing, and the right thing is those doctors are calling for reform in the medical, medical care procedures, and now the government is threatening them by suspending. Which, by the way, I just saw something this morning that says now the government is reversing its act. Oh, it's too late. When you're treating your doctors, what, what do you think those doctors going to be end up doing? They might end up just leave the country. And that's how brain drains happens through countries, especially for a country like, uh, uh, South Korea. Well, you look at it, in just 2 weeks, 10,000 trainee doctors have resigned or stopped working altogether. Yeah, it's, it's, it's pathetic for the South Korean government in Seoul to be punishing those doctors for calling for the government to do the right thing. That's just mind-boggling. It is the next one. This one has to do with the effect of the Gaza War on the Israeli budget. Well, Israel now is running into a deficit that is widened to about almost $30 billion. That's a lot of money for Israel, given that it gets about $2.7 to $3 billion from us on a yearly basis. You know, I don't know what you call it— a charity, donations, help, assistance, whatever. Yet most Americans are unaware of their tax dollars being sent to Israel. Anyway, Israel's budget deficit continued to widen in February last month reaching now 5.6% of its GDP. That is a— that is major one, you know. So when you look at about almost $30 billion— it's, to be exact, is $29.3 billion according to the, uh, source that I checked this in. And this is why now the finance minister is like warning that this undertaking for The conflict might not bode well economically for Israel. So here's the third one, and this one has to do with Bitcoin. I don't know if any of you own Bitcoins. If you notice, it's been jumping over $72,000. Uh, I've been keeping an eye on it because I do keep some investments in Bitcoin, something the government can't control. That's the beauty of it. Now, some will agree with Bitcoin, some won't. Whatever you feel comfortable with, that's what you need to do. So, so Bitcoin jumped to a new high today, which— the yesterday, that is— aimed optimism about possibly the US Federal Reserve not cutting, uh, sort of decision to cut interest rates this year. Well, I won't trust the Fed anyway, but this one has nothing to do with that. It has to do with the weakening of the US dollar and the weakening of the US economy. Despite what our so-called president was saying, that economy is doing well. No, the economy wasn't doing well here in the US. So, and this is why probably the, uh, the Bitcoin is jumping up, so is gold. I've been keeping an eye on this one here. Uh, this one here has to do with some documents. I will be doing a video for you later on. I have to confirm some things. So now the Israeli, uh, Indian relations are coming to the fore. Why? Because the revelation of some documents that just been sort of disclosed. But all this is nothing but— you have to remember what's coming up next month in India. Does anybody know? Let me see if you guys can type in what's coming up in India next month. There's something major coming up in India. Let me see what you guys type in in the chat box. Uh, Joseph Roy, good to see you, man, as always. Partha, good to see you as always. Army with Harmony, good to see you as always. Yeah, what's coming up next month? In election, you're correct. You, you, uh, Hong Wan, nobody, uh, you guys got it. Partha, you guys got it. The elections. And this is why you're seeing now the nationalist movements, the Hinduism, are the tackling the Muslims, which is very problematic in India. And again, we're not just badmouthing India here, we're just stating the facts. You know, it's their country, they can do whatever. But you start just see— anyway, this idea of the documents that's now revealed, uh, that, uh, Israel and India sort of, uh, knew especially the Israeli diplomats, they knew that they are dealing with a government that is very firm on when it comes down to Islamophobic. So they knew that. That's how they paved the way. As a matter of fact, Israel was, uh, giving some, uh, military technologies to India behind the US's back. So, and all this stems of course from, uh, the Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Israel back in 2017, because he be— it became symbolic of the transformation of the relationship. And this is why those 7 Indians in Qatar were spying on behalf of Israel. So that's— and I think they've been expelled from Qatar, returned, or something into that effect. Uh, the next one I want to share with you because something I talked about not only in my book about Russia few years ago, but I just mentioned it here on the platform few months ago. And this one has to do with the Russian president Vladimir Putin now stating that he is ready to use nuclear weapons if, uh, if his country comes under some some sort of attack or its security is threatened. But this also has to do with something else, that now officially Russia is gonna deploy its military to the Finnish border, on Finland, which is exactly what I wrote in my book 3 years ago, that if Finland joined NATO, be on the lookout for Russia moving its military on the border. And now, and this is just to confirm that they're gonna be moving. This is what Putin said, and I quote, 'We didn't have troops there,' meaning on Finland border, on Finnish border. 'Now they will be there along with our destructive systems, and now they will be deployed,' end of quote. This is what the Russian president said. So makes you just wonder And here it is, Phil. And I argued this few years ago, guys, uh, way back. As a matter of fact, I'm gonna share one link with you that you guys can go there and take a look at the, uh, if I can find it, uh, some, some links that I, uh, I wrote back then about the, um Where did I put it now? Yeah, right here. This some articles that I wrote way back, and you guys, I, I tackled some of these topics. So I'm going to put it in a chat box for you guys. Uh, this is when I used to write for the Huffington Post. There are plenty of articles to read. When you get a chance, just read up some, some, some Anyway, let's get in into our topic about Iran, Russia, and China conducting their military drills. There is one here. So, so what's important about all this given the timing? Well, of course it's very, very, very crucial. Very crucial is because Uh, both— all, all three, rather, uh, Russia, China, and Iran, uh, decided of course to hold their joint exercises, which start on March 11th and it's going to go all the way to the 15th in the Gulf of Aden. So, well, what was interesting about this? It was the interesting about it from the statements coming out of China and of course from Russia and Iran to a degree. And for Russia— for, for, for China, that is. China is sending two main ships. I'm gonna just mention a few highlights about the assets that each country is putting. So let me start with the first one. China is sending— what you're looking at is the, uh, now which one is this one here? Uh, yeah, this is the Chinese, uh, Jiang, if I am pronouncing it correctly. Uh, yeah, Chinese is sending— this is the guided destroyer Oramki. Oramki, that— let me share the picture with you here. This is the Chinese Oramki right here, the Chinese destroyer. Okay, China is also, uh, this is a missile-guided destroyer. China is also sending a guided missile frigate, it's called Linyi, and here is a picture of it. This is Linyi that entered into service few years ago, by the way. So, uh, the same thing, Iran is sending two major frigates, one of them is Alborj and the other one, El Jamran. So here is an image of Alborj, which is Iranian, uh, uh, uh, frigates. You know, those usually, these are the equivalency of destroyers except they don't carry guided missiles. And the second one is Jamran. Very, very impressive for, for Iran developments, of course. And the Russians are sending, I believe, a, a missile cruiser, Varyag. Here's an image of it. I want to show it to you first. Here, this is the Russian missile cruisers. You know, those are, you know, I don't know if they are nuclear-tipped or not. I do not know that, but I do know those are missile cruisers. They are cruise missiles, which means long distance they can reach. Uh, they're sending that, and they are sending also the Marshal Shchapskonyakov, which is the anti-missile destroyer. It's right here. This is the Russians, the anti-missile destroyer. And of course, all this will have to pave the way for us to ask the question. The timing of it, the location of it is very, very important. So And the thing is that you need to understand about all this is that those three countries are forging some— this is why I put on the thumbnail for a reason, stronger together. And this is what falls back to my original question about, is this a signal not about geopolitical shift and all that which is already happening, it's about global power. The power structure. That's the reason why I said that, what I said. So, and, uh, uh, so of course when you think about, uh, all of them, all three countries— Iran, Russia, and China— for Iran, of course Iran has been providing some armaments to Russia. So, and this has to do with the Shahed-type drones. And all this is important to understand to put it within perspective of these naval drills, because the naval drills came also during a time very, very crucial. And I came across, uh, an article overseas, uh, that was written in Arabic language. Let me see if I can pull it up here to see. Uh, yes, I still have it. I'm gonna share it with you, share the image with you. Just the image here. Uh, not now. Okay, I'm gonna just show you the picture and I will provide a brief, brief description. Now look at this one here, this picture you're looking at. There we go, let me make that big. This just happened yesterday. As a matter of fact, today my time, it was yesterday in, in, in, in West, uh, uh, West Asia, Middle East, that is. This is the Houthi group targeting two US destroyers, but of course they were targeting the, the, the, uh, what you call them, the oil tankers, and the US responded by shutting down the drones and so forth. And again, this is where you want to time in the drills between Iran, Russia, and China with what's going on. This is one here. The second one has to do with, uh, if I still have it— no, I don't. But that's, that's what, that's what I wanted to highlight to you, to put it in perspective for you. Before I'll delve deeper, let's do about geography, a little bit about Oman. And also the history, because it's very important to understand this part of the world as to where those naval drills are being exercised, or are, are, are being conducted, rather. All right, let me share the map, which I give, by the way, my credit to World Atlas for, uh, the map here, because that's where I give credit to. And I think the other picture, I forgot who my All right, let's see the map here. Here we go. You got to make sure you see this one right there. Muscat. Muscat is the, uh, capital of Oman. Now don't confuse Oman with Amman. If you know, if you notice my pronunciation, Oman is a country, Amman is the capital of which country, by the way? I want to test your geography knowledge, guys. Which country, uh, Amman is the capital of? Let me just see in the chat box. Hi, Bon, good to see you, Bon. And Franny, good to see you. Uh, uh, Lani, good to see you too. Jordan, you got it. Hannity first. You got it. Is that my favorite planet? Also got it. You guys got it. It's, uh, it's Jordan. So just for FYI, for pronunciation, no more, no less. So, so, Amman, let's talk about Amman geographically. Amman, of course, is a sovereign state. And if you look at that location, it is located in the Arabian Peninsula of Western Asia. If you noticed, certain literature mention West Asia. They don't say Middle East. So I'm gonna go with this one here. Western Asia in northern and eastern hemisphere of the Earth. Oman, looking at the map, shares a northwestern border with United Arab Emirates, a western border with Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Oman also shares coastline borders with the Arabian Sea in the south and east along with the Gulf of Amman in the northeast. Amman is strategically situated at the mouth of the Persian Gulf in the southeastern part of the Arabian Peninsula, and the country shares its maritime with also Pakistan and Iran. The Gulf of Amman, which is known also in Arabic language as Khalij Amman— I'm sorry, Khalij Oman not Ahmed. Kharij Ahmed. It is also known, you might find it in some literature mentioned as the Gulf of Makran or the Sea of Makran. So there are two variations. Most of the literature, the literature will mention the Gulf of, uh, of Ahmed. However, you do see, uh, just in case you come across it, so you know what it is. And this is where that Gulf connects the Arabian Sea with the Strait of Hormuz. And if you see where the Strait of Hormuz, uh, based on the map, that's the narrow strait which a lot of oil that goes to rest of the world goes from there. One-fourth, yeah, one-fourth of the world oil reserves go from that part of, of, of the world, the Strait of Hormuz. And this is what's interesting about it. So Now regarding its, its history, the Sultanate of Oman has long served as a hub, believe it or not, on the Indian Ocean trade routes, and it has ancient ties that reaches from Pakistan to the island of Zanzibar. Now where is the island of Zanzibar? Does anybody know? If you know, can you type it on the chat box? The island of Zanzibar, it has a lot of history. Let me see, guys, if you type in this on the chat box. Zanzibar. Uh, Matt Becky, you got it, you got it, Matt. It's in Africa. Zanzibar has a lot of history if you ever get a chance to look into it. OMC, you got it right too. Yeah, you guys got it. So So, uh, one of you asked the question here, where is— why not the Gulf of Amman? So, uh, that's, that's, uh, so today Amman is one of the wealthiest nations on Earth, believe it or not, despite not having extensive oil reserves. It's so small, it's about 4 million people, I think, if I'm not mistaken. So, and, and this is what part of, uh, where, where, uh, uh Oman's history goes, goes way back. So you have to think about— I'm not going to talk about the government structure, the, the, the population and all that. Now, the languages, one thing you need to know is the Modern Standard Arabic, or MSA, uh, is the official language in Oman. However, Omanis speaks different Arabic dialects, and there are plenty, plenty of dialects, uh, over there. So as to religion, just for you to know, the official religion in Oman is Ibadi, an Ibadi Islam, to those who know what it is, which is a branch distinct from both the Sunnis and the Shiites, or Ibadi, or Ibadi. That's those who are familiar with the, uh, Islamic faith, you will know what I'm referring to here. Which by the way, so this originated just about 60 years ago. After 60 years ago, meaning after the death of the Prophet Muhammad, which means it goes back to 634, meaning only 6 years ago after the prophet's death. So, uh, there are also other religions represented in Oman that includes Hinduism, believe it or not, Jainism, Buddhism, Zoroastrianism, Sikhism, Baha'i, and Christianity. So it is a multi-pot of religions and so forth. So, but one thing I need you to understand about this history, it goes back to some over 100,000 years ago. Yeah, when humans lived in Amma. And this is— was way back. And the way you know it is through archaeological artifacts when they found some stone tools left by the, the Pleistocene people. Goes way back. Then you have the Nubian complex from the Horn of Africa in Dhofar region. So the earliest known city in Oman is the Rizh, which dates back at least some 9,000 years ago. And once again, archaeological finds includes some tools, uh, some hand-formed pottery, and so forth. And this is what— if you look at the history of, of, of Egypt, for example, or Iraq, whatever, there are some prior civilizations that existed way back. Some of them dated back to 12,000 years ago. So, and this is what I understand, what I said is very, very important to understand., uh, uh, for you. And for Amman, of course, the first places to convert, uh, it was among the first places to convert to Islam, especially when the Prophet Muhammad back then in 630 CE, the Common Era that is, sent his mercenaries, or missionaries rather, south into Amman. So, and that's how we moved forward, uh, after the Prophet's death, uh, in, uh, the caliphate, the Abbasids, then the, the Karmatians in 931 to 934, uh, took over, then the Seljuks and so forth. So then you have the Portuguese. Now this is where you have the European starts to show up around the 15th century when the Portuguese entered the Indian Ocean trade and began to exert their power. So, so it started from about 1507 to 1650. Fast forward to the Ottoman Empire, which took over certain tribes over there and managed to drive the Portuguese away for good. So the Portuguese did it from— I'm sorry, the, the, the Ottoman did it from 1881 to 15— I'm sorry, from 1581 to 1588. Fast forward to, uh, the, uh, 1698, the Imam of Oman invaded Zanzibar and drove the Portuguese away from the island. But he also— this is the Imam of Oman— occupied parts of the coastal uh, northern Mozambique. So, and Oman used this toehold in East Africa as a market of enslaved people supplying African forced labor to the Indian Ocean world. That's how it works. So, and of course, you fast forward till the establishment of the current ruling dynasty, which is, uh, Al Said That's the dynasty there. It started in, uh, took power in 1749 during a succession struggle which took about 50 years. So the British were able to extract concessions from the Al-Saeed ruler in return for supporting his claim to the throne. And in 1913, Oman split into two countries with religious imams ruling the interior while the sultans continue to rule in Muscat and the coast. That, that's what I need you to understand about, about, uh, Oman. So it's a small country, but it does have, uh, some history back then. So, all right, let's get into our analysis here about the drills. Why do drills matter? So So as I mentioned, the defense ministries of Russia, China, and Iran, all of them announced those plans that they will be conducting back then, uh, uh, the joint drills in the Gulf of Aden. Well, of course, uh, the, uh, uh, uh, the Russian Defense Ministry, uh, argued that or stated that their primary goal or objective for this agenda is to work out the safety of maritime economic activities. Yes, it's all good, but as an analyst, I will have to go beyond this. This is nothing but for public consumption, you know, when they are saying, well, this is Maritime Security Belt 2024. That is true, but again, I have to go beyond all this. And why you have to go beyond all this is because you have to understand that what's taking place now in the Red Sea And also what Iran is doing, preparing, because the HA group— remember, not HI, HI in Yemen, HA is in Lebanon— the HA group has been firing about 140 missiles over into northern Israel. So, so all this sort of coincided with the drills in which that the three countries sending some upscale naval assets. I won't call them very, very, uh, sort of the, the top of the line. No, it's because when you conduct drills, you don't want to show what you have, but you do send enough strength to send the message. Because the message that is being sent here to the United States mainly, and any other Western, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, country for that matter, and NATO for that fact, is that the idea of the global power is shifting, whether you like it or not. That's the bottom line to it. And because the idea has always been that the conversation— which again, I argued this way back, and I found it relevant that sort of my prediction came up to be true. So even back then when I argued how much the geopolitical landscape in West, uh, West Asia is changing, especially, especially it was after— pardon me— especially after Iran reached the deal with the P5 regarding the nuclear program. Why is that? Because that allowed Iran to flex its military muscles, its economic muscles, and to a degree its ideological Now I will say the ideological— I won't worry about it. Why is this? It's because China was able to broker a deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the two arch enemies in the region, and ideologically also. Now there is no need for that because that animosity does not exist, it's not there anymore. Yeah, you might have some groups here and there, but it's irrelevant. And even back then when I argued that for Iran flexing its muscle, I did argue that it's going to flex them even more when it joined with Russia and China. And here we are. This is the argument I made back in 2019 when I was in the process of writing my book about Russia, and I argued this one here. So, and given these realities, Iran, especially Iran will be— yeah, will be closer than ever to realize its political objectives. And what is that? Of course, becoming regional power with the prestige and the influence and the impact that comes with it to impact the political course of the region. This is why we are witnessing what we are witnessing regarding why the US didn't attack, uh, Iran. Why Israel couldn't attack Iran. Why the West is just wondering. That is the reason why. It's because Iran made the calculations back then. And by the way, those calculations, by the way, it weren't just from the Iran perspective. They were also from Russia and also from China. And I'm gonna get into it as I move forward here. So So my argument back then, because I do remember all this, because you wrote the book, you remember what you wrote. So the idea that I argued that now, given all these dynamics, I will wonder what the United States policy will be now towards the region. Well, we all see now what's going on. And that was when I wrote this back then, I was talking in the future to see what the— because I said just any, any pragmatic individual will be asking the question, what will be the policy in the region? Well, of course we don't have any policy because we didn't have a strategic— a strategy or foreign policy for the last 3 or 4 decades. I argue that it will be no different. It just— we will be just reaction, or reacting rather, to events. And of course, I made one key point is that this policy, whatever that is for the United States, it will be tested like never before, especially when it comes down to what kind of cooperation, if there is any, between the United States and that it will undertake with other major powers, mainly Russia and China, because those are the three countries that matter. Straightforward. So, and given the new geopolitical environments, now to me it becomes clear today with those naval drills that the message that those three countries are sending to Washington and NATO for that matter is, you know what, the power, the global power order that the US used to dominate is no longer there. And here is one question that I need to ask you. Because I, I've been thinking about it last night. If you have a choice— now just listen carefully, guys— if you have a choice to pick one country to add to this, which one would that be in your opinion? So let me see if you guys can type in. That is, if you have to pick one country to add to those three— Russia, China, and Iran— Which one will that be? But again, think before you answer. Why? Is because you have to think about— remember, the keyword is global power shift. Global power. Yeah, uh, Franny, you said Turks. Turkey is, uh, Turkey will play both sides because it's NATO member. You can't trust that. So Glenn Farrell, India. No, India will not play the same role as as, uh, let's say Russia or China militarily. Uh, Cam35, Indonesia? No, Indonesia wouldn't want to drag itself into this. Uh, Saudi Arabia? No, no. Jordan? No, it's useless. Jordan, any, any Arab country will be useless. Let me just tell you this, uh, straightforward. Uh, let me go back up here just a minute. Oh, Sharpnell! You got it, Sharpnail. You got it, Sharpnails. Yeah, North Korea. Paul, you got it, North Korea. That is correct. Yeah, it's right here, North Korea. Yeah, you're absolutely correct, North Korea. And then again, there is no right or wrong, it's just, uh, uh, leng tiao. You got it, North Korea. It makes perfect sense. Why is this? It's because North Korea has certain military capabilities that will only add to what Russia, China, and Iran have. So now you're looking at a mini NATO, if you want to call it, or call it whatever, that will have far more power than NATO itself. And that's exactly my argument that I made back then. And I said it will be just matter of time before this shift in the geopolitical landscape happens and what comes with it. The two main other things, the financial one and the military dimension to it. And the financial one, by the way, which I will be talking with my guest on Friday, uh, with Rick Turan. So make sure to join me on that one. Now, of course, the drills will have to also— this is why they called it the Maritime Belt 2024. Is to secure the passage of energy, oil, of course. Why? Especially for China, because China gets a lot of oil from West Asia, especially Saudi Arabia and Iran. That will be one of the, the, the reason to do that, the reason to do that. So on the other hand, could this also trigger a confrontation over access to energy? So give or take, when it comes down to any country, we'll have to think about its strategic interest. That is very, very, very crucial. That is so. And, uh, uh, or will these countries sort of compromise, whatever? But I don't see how China and Russia or Iran or any other country for that matter will trust the United States. Because for us, sad to say, is my country, but I can't shy away from not saying it because it's the truth. We don't have any more credibility. We done, we done with credibility. So, and I'm again, I'm talking, guys, about the government, not the people. American people are very, very wonderful people, trust me. No, uh, now, and this is what I say back then, I argued, which tied to this one here, that both Russia and China will have an interest in ensuring that their ties with Iran sort of, uh, flourishes. So if I am to look at it from Iran— from Russia's perspective, which give you just an example. So now when you look at about Russia and Iran, both of them, despite having a mutual interest because they both have common enemy, right, their cooperation aimed at separate objectives. Yes, they want to form military ties, and they are forming military cooperation and so forth. All that is great and good. I'm talking about the strategic interests here. There are separate different objectives. Of course, if you know the history of the Soviet Union and Iran, well, when back then, one thing that comes to mind that, uh, uh, uh, for Iran— for Russia rather, uh, ties with Iran and vice versa, it's a long term. Is the same arguments can be made about China and Iran. It's a long term. So, and one of the objectives for Russia, and at least, uh, during my research I found that it's more for Russia than it is for China, but that does not mean if an opportunity presents itself to China, China will not take it. China will. But for Russia is more clear to me based on the research that I did for my book, that became clear to me that the long-term objective for the Russians is the establishment of a naval base in Iran, similar to the arrangements the United States had with Bahrain. Because what do we have in Bahrain? Does anybody know? Can you type in, in a chat box, what do we have in Bahrain? I want just see, see what you guys type in here. Oh, let me say thank you first. I want to say thank you to Hosni. Thank you so much for your Super Sticker. Truly, truly appreciate it. It means a lot to me, and I, I'm very grateful to you. Thank you so much, Hosni. And also Harry Loquel. Here is my man Harry Loquel. Has been an avid supporter since I started this channel. He's been also on the other channel, but he was a lot, lot here that I remember. So thank you so much, Harry. Harry, truly, truly appreciate your continued support, and I'm very grateful to all of you guys. All right, let me see what you guys wrote. Military base, you got it. Which one? You know, I'm gonna challenge your, your intellectual stuff here. It is a US base, but which one? Uh, and you guys got it right, it's military base. Which one I'm talking Specifics here, specifics. It's because once you understand the type of military bases, it gives you an idea of the Navy. Hong Wan, you got it, is the Fifth Fleet. The Fifth Fleet is headquartered in Bahrain. This is why I'm— I know you guys got it, it's military base, but sometimes you need to understand, especially if you want to understand, if you want to have a better understanding of geopolitical dynamics, you have to know the specifics of things. For example, and I give you a quick example here, Bahrain, of course we said it's a naval base, the Fifth Fleet. But if I compare that to Philippines, what type of military bases do we have in Philippines? See what I'm saying? It's because there is nothing specific for a reason. We wanted to leave it in the vague like that because even the Filipino themselves, the government will not even know what type of weapons we will bring in into those bases. And mark my word on this, because that's how we do it. I will include even nukes if we have to, and they won't even know it. So, so of course we will have either tanks or some sort of, uh, uh, uh, uh, infantry. Yeah, you're right, Francis Tango, we could have presence of the infantry and all that stuff. But if there is no specifics— and this is why I'm saying it's very, very important to understand those dynamics for Russia vis-à-vis Iran in this— so establishing a naval base in Iran would be very crucial. So, and this way Russia will position itself through its asset, naval assets, to challenge now the US both militarily and strategically. That is one of the key to that. So, but of course, you, uh, if you know the history of Iran-Russia relations or Iran-Soviet Union back then, you have to keep in mind that there are some deep psychological scars and a sense of betrayal among Iranians when it comes down to Russia. And all this has to do with— why is this? Is because it was the negative perception that was even reinforced, rather, when Russia recognized a supporting group in Iran called Tudeh Party, which means— it translated the equivalency to it to masses of Iran. Why is this? Because that party was a communist, and we're talking about back then when Soviet Union was in, in existence in 1941. This is why history is very important to understand the evolvement of geopolitical dynamics. So, and at that time, the head of that party was none other than Suleiman Mohsen Iskandari. And I wrote extensively on a book. If you get a chance to, uh, uh, check it out, you can look it up there. So it was the leader of the party. What was less widely known at that time is that the masses of Iran Party played a pivotal role during the era of none other than Mohammad Mossadegh. What did Mohammad Mossadegh do at that time in the '50s? Can anybody tell me? What is one act Dr. Mohammad Mossadegh did that led to his demise? Can anybody type in, in the, in the chat box? Uh, John Smith, New Zealand, you got it. Nationalized the Iran, uh, uh, Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, and that led to what? What happened in, uh, uh, after that, 1953? Once again, I want to just, just sharing knowledge here, guys, no more, no less. Not to put you on the spot, we're just sharing knowledge here. What happened to Mohammad Mossadegh in 1953? A major event, of course. Oh, you got it, you got it, John Smith, New Zealand, you got it. The coup. That both played a role in it, CIA and MI6. So, and this is why it's important to understand the historical aspects of this, to put this in perspective within those drills that both countries are doing. Now, there are other considerations you have to keep in mind. One of them that come on the top of my mind It has to do with China's increasing of its defense budget to 7.2%, which of course still a drop in the bucket in comparison to ours, $856 billion or $70 billion, whatever that is, without adding the supplemental bill, which amount to a trillion plus. So this is what's important to understand, this. The second, uh, aspect you need to keep in mind Is that also the declaration of the Russian president? And remember what I said earlier about what Russia, uh, stated. Yeah, that Russia is ready for a nuclear war. So you put all this in, in conjunction with what's happening to the— in, in geopolitics, guys, or international affairs in general term, The messages that countries send to each other is through certain actions like this. They don't have to take a, a diplomatic trip to the country, uh, and visit and say, hey, we're gonna do ABC. They do them through actions like this. This is why when you think about the announcements by the Russian presidents that Russia is ready for a nuclear war, and will deploy its troops on the Finnish borders. It highlights the idea. Now, some say, what, this has nothing to do with the drills in, uh, in, uh, in West Asia? No, it does, because if you think what Russia has in Syria, you will see the, the link between the two. And what does Russia have in Syria? Can anybody type in, in chat box? One military presence Russia has in Syria. Where, where that is? Let me just see if anybody familiar with it. You don't hear much about it, but it is very crucial strategic location in Syria. Uh, Latakia. Latakia, that will be on Turkey. Uh, Camp 35 is naval, that is correct. But do, do you guys know where? Does anybody know where? It's naval, naval, naval. Tartus, you got it. Solo Wing, you got it. In Tartus— no, not Damascus, I'm sorry, uh, uh, right here, this one. I wanted to show the right one here. Uh, Tartus, Tartus base, because it has access to the Mediterranean. So the Russians will have to ensure the water. Anytime access to water is always easier. This is why If you look at the map, the one that I— let me, let me bring it back here on the screen. If you look at the map regarding where the naval exercises are being conducted, the Gulf of Aden, but also you look at the Strait of Hormuz, okay, and you look at the Persian Gulf as a whole, you know, the body of water is very, very crucial to Iran— to Russia, I'm sorry. It will be very crucial also the statements that they are saying. Then there is another event also, is that, uh, for Iran is stating that the idea that Iran's military exercises also will have to fall under the, the preparation in case of surprise attacks. This is why you're seeing the type. And again, always look at the type. Look what Iran is sending. This is Alborj destroyer— oh, frigates, I'm sorry, frigates. Uh, this is, uh, Al Jamaran. Yeah, it's for naval exercises, but also sending a message there. And when you look at the same what China is sending, this is Linyi. That's a destroyer. And the other one is, uh, uh, uh, Yoramki. I hope I pronounce it correctly, guys. If you can correct me on this one, that's a major one. And, and China sending two. So the same thing with Russia, Baryag. That's a cruiser missile. Then you look at the Marshall, destroyer, which is the anti-submarines. So all this is sending that signal, the message that is going to be very, very, very interesting to understand. And this is to me the idea that the message that is to me, it's loud and clear, is that we— when I say we, I'm referring to Iran, China, Iran within the context of the naval drills— that We are prepared and ready for whatever. That's too many arguments, uh, that especially in that part of the world. This is why we are going and attacking the Houthi group in Yemen. Poor country, whatever. We couldn't attack the Russians, we couldn't attack the Iranians, and hell no, we are not going to attack the Chinese. So we all know, we all know. It's because when you meet force with force, the country that is trying to intimidate or bully, whatever that is, will think twice. And this is why, to me, I see the link of all this with a loud and clear message to the United States. Of course, this comes on the reflection of our decline, because we are declining. Those in Washington that pretend otherwise, they are living in a parallel universe universe, or they just want to hide the truth from the American people. But again, we all know how our system is anyway, corrupted to its core. So, and those are the messages, uh, that I, uh, that I see Iran is sending— or not Iran, Iran, Russia, and China, the naval drills. Uh, I want to share with you something, by the way, within this general context from One of my avid viewers by the name Pak Ho888 put a comment last time, and I— that's the reason why I read comments, and I do suggest for you guys, if you get a chance to read it, it will be worth your time. And I decide to save it, and I'm going to share it with you. I'm assuming I have his permission to do so. Um, he wrote, and I quote, great analysis, Dr. O. My two cents worth: China creates trouble for itself by not preventing the US Navy from sailing through the Taiwan Strait. When the US and the EU recognize that Taiwan is part of China, that means the Taiwan Strait are Chinese sovereign territory. China needs to focus on dealing with the renegade province and reunify— pardon me— reunify Taiwan with China. China does not need to invade Taiwan to bring it to heel. In fact, there is no, no shoot at anyone in Taiwan. India, the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, and others are sideshows, and they are just irritants and not worth considering to be a threat. What is Australia going to do? They are far away and are not in possession to threaten China. Chinese weapon system can reach all of Australia if Australia pose a threat to China. So I don't even think Australia is worth worrying about, and so on. So, uh, it's, it's a long post. If you get chance to read it, uh, it's, it's better. And I'm very grateful that Pak Ho 888, uh, you know, took time to write this. It's like— but I do see a point in that one. And the point that I see is that literally, what would have happened back then if China would have reacted to the US presence near China's waters? Because here is the thing, and it's a logical argument: how do you think we're going to react if China or Russia or both or all three or all four— add in North Korea— comes over to the Gulf of Mexico and conduct maneuvers there. Of course, they will be within this 12 nautical miles under international law and so forth. But what do you think would have happened if China reacted to that? The US will most likely not conduct more naval passages through there and so forth under so-called, uh, uh, the, the, uh, law of the sea. Well, when the Russians and Chinese want to near Alaska, we scream bloody loud. Well, doesn't the law of the sea apply there as well? So that's why I found that very interesting. And to the comment from Pak Ho 888, but to tie this to the naval drills, that's where I see the messages that— more than one message here that they are sending, those three countries, because they are unified unified by a common objective. So, and sky is the limit if you add the fourth country. That is the reason why I said what I said earlier about this one here. All right, let me— I want to answer a question or two. By the way, guys, before I, uh, uh, for those who wants to support the channel, by the way, I'm still working now on the admin stuff regarding visas And I run into a little hiccup with the Chinese Embassy. I'll, I'll figure that out. It's nothing major, it just, uh, didn't expect that. So I'm gonna have to figure a way for do to do that. So, uh, here is the link to PayPal for those who wants to. I know some one of you guys, George, George from George L, that's if my memory serves me well, he wrote that where he is, they can use credit card and they can use, uh, uh, uh, Buy Me a Coffee. So they ask me if I do— I don't have a, a WhatsApp, uh, app, whatever. I, I don't— is it a WhatsApp or WeChat? Something like where you do the transactions and all that stuff. So I'm going to look into that. But so far, if you guys want to support the channel, this is for the channel, uh, uh the PayPal, and I also have the other ones for the channel and the trip to Asia if you decide to support the channel. Let me get you the link, guys, to, uh, where the links for tonight. Remember to join me tonight at 1900 hours Central Standard Time. It will be AM the next day overseas where you guys gonna be. And, uh, I'm just gonna see where I'm gonna be doing, uh, with the Adjunct Professor Warwick Pao, a very, very, very interesting conversation we're gonna have. I look forward to it because I prepared some topics to talk about. And he's somebody— once you guys get into the description of the video, I put the full length of his bio. It's worth reading. Yeah, uh, I'm gonna put this in chat box. This is to the link for, uh, let me type it here, for tonight, for live stream tonight. Yeah, that's the one. And the one for Thursday with Rick Turan from Shanghai, Shanghai directly. It's going to be at 2100 hours. Uh, uh, this is with Rick Turan, and we're going to be talking about AI, we'll be talking about, uh, Petro Yuan, uh, digital payments, there, there's a lot, a lot of stuff that, uh, I would like for you to be aware of to put things in perspective if you are interested. And because the financial system is going some directions that you need to be aware of. So, all right guys, I'm gonna answer a question, uh, from you, and a question or two. And, uh, once again, thanks to those who, uh, uh, got me super sticker here. I'm to Harry, uh, and Mr. Husni. I'm very, very grateful to you guys, greatly appreciate it. And, uh, so I'm going to answer a question or two if you put in just Q, uh, on, on, on, on the screen so I, I know it's a question. Uh, okay, here is one from Matt. Hypothetically, if Russia gets a base in Iran, coastal base in south of Iran, would Russia place nuclear weapons in that base? That's going to be the arrangements between the two countries, you know. I don't— because remember, uh, the country cannot just go and, and, and, and place its weapons. It's like what we have right now in Netherlands. A lot of people do not know that we do have nuclear weapons in Netherlands. We have them in, uh, Belgium. We have them in, uh, of course Germany and Turkey, and I believe Italy, if I'm not mistaken. Uh, 5 countries. So, but I, I know for fact. Uh, so yeah, it depends if they make an agreement with the Russian— with the Iranians. Yeah, they could place their nukes there. You know, I won't be surprised at all, but it will change the geopolitical calculations for NATO and all others because everything will be within reach to Europe. So, all right, let me see. Uh, Francis Tango, uh, I think the 7%, uh, war budget is too small. The Chinese budget, uh, no, 7.2% just for the defense. Here. But again, remember, the Chinese are not spending money on their foreign bases because they don't have any. They spending their money on their weapon systems, which is a smart move. So look how much we spend. Do you guys know, just FYI, we spend about a million dollar a month? Yeah, $1 million a month to maintain— to pay for electricity for, for the bases around the world. 1 million a month. To me, it's just waste. But again, our government, why will they care? They're just wasting stuff. So, uh, uh, Pon Su question: will Russia nuclear the first shot if further provoked? Yes, if its sovereignty comes under threat, because it's in the Russian doctrine that the— it's called after Day 2, DA. That's the doctrine that the Russians have, which means they will use nuclear weapon strikes first if their sovereignty is threatened. And I do know the Russians will not bluff. Now the question will be, will they use the tactical or the, or the strategic ones? Most likely it will be the tactical, because the strategic one will be involved. It would involve the ICBMs and so forth, which is a different conversation altogether. Now, when the Russians said they're going to move destructive systems near Finland border, they're referring to the nuclear— tactical nuclear weapons. So that, that's the way I see it. All right, guys, uh, I'm, I'm just going all the way down here to to see. Uh, Hong Wan, uh, Dr. O, China and Iran, uh, had that oil dispute a while back. Uh, wouldn't that impact their— no, it won't. It is just matter of working out the differences, even though, even though I side with China against, against Iran for this. Why? Because Iran wanted to change the horses in the middle of the game. Of the rates, rather, which is not right. In other words, Iran wanted to up the price while the contract has not been fulfilled yet. Sort of, uh, you signed the contract, you have to honor it. So Iran signed the contract for the prices of $5, for example. You can't just go and change it to $10 in the middle of it. That just— and it's— I, I think they can work out their differences. It's nothing major. This kind of, uh, misunderstanding, miscommunication happens between countries, it's because they have far better strategic interest than worrying about $5 or $10. Or China might even go and pay the, the extra money, whatever. It's not a big deal to China because China is becoming wealthy. That's just a fact. So, uh, All right guys, I hope you find this very, very interest— oh, oh, question quickly here. Oh, Farhad, good to see you. Farhad Razavi, I haven't seen your name earlier. A question from Chanel here: who calls the shot in DC? It's the, it's the hidden hand. There are groups inside Washington that they are not part of the government, but they have enough influence that they can tell the president what to do. No, our president is nothing but a facade. It's, it's just a figurative head, or figurehead, that is. President of the United States, Trump or Biden or whomever, any president have no power. It's because the power lies with the special groups behind the scenes. And if you ever go to Washington, DC, if any of you go to K Street, there is a street in Washington called K Street. That's where power is. You have to go and find out why. I, I can detail certain things here, uh, but K Street, that's what you find out. So, so that is where the problem in our country here. So, oh, I want to say thank you to Bender Gil. Thank you so much for your super sticker, truly appreciate it. Sometimes, guys, I sign off but I don't see the Super Sticker after I leave. So, Army with Harmony, you say thank you. You're most welcome. Thank you all, guys, and I look forward to seeing you next time. Or see you, see you at 9— at, uh, 1900 hours tonight. So as always, guys, remember, geopolitics impact your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, bye-bye.