In this video, David Oualaalou critiques Western economic forecasts that predicted a sharp slowdown or even collapse of China’s economy in 2022. He presents newly revised data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics showing a 4.4% GDP growth, up from the World Bank’s 2.7% estimate, and highlights that China’s GDP reached roughly 120 trillion yuan (~$17.4 trillion). Oualaalou explains how domestic challenges—zero‑COVID lockdowns, the Evergrande real‑estate crisis, and weak consumer demand—were offset by resilient fundamentals, as emphasized in President Xi’s year‑end address. He also discusses external headwinds such as global inflation, energy costs, and reduced overseas demand, but argues they did not derail overall growth. The video then shifts to geopolitics, linking the economic narrative to the broader trend of de‑globalization and U.S. protectionist policies, notably the CHIPS and Science Act, which aims to curb China’s semiconductor development. Oualaalou predicts a modest rebound in 2023 (around 4.8% growth) and warns viewers to monitor inflation, interest rates, and corporate liquidity as indicators of the evolving global economy.
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Hello everyone and welcome to Geopolitical Trends. My name is David Oualaalou. Global economic growth, some have said, is expected or was expected to slow down significantly in 2022, and, and some economists suggested that it will drop from 5.5% to 4.1%. Yet Many of those analysts expected that China's economy to collapse. Yeah, which I found very hilarious anyway. So in this video, I'm going to provide you a brief assessment as to how most Western analyses about China's economy got it wrong. So, but before I launch into this, if you enjoy watching my videos and the information that I provide you and want to show your support, uh, for what I do, check out the channel membership. You can click on the join button there, down, down there, you'll see it there, or you can check out the link in the description. So, and also remember to subscribe if you have not done so and smash that notification button so you will be notified every time I upload a new video. And thank you very much for your support. So, so let's dive in into this. The World Bank, you know, headquarters in Washington— the World Bank has slashed, uh, the, the growth of China's economy, you know, nearly 3 years of, uh, after this, uh, the pandemic per se, the zero COVID policy, which has curbed also the economy of China, but also in addition to the real estate problems for Evergreen— Evergrande, rather. And I remember I did a video on this a way back, so. And yet the second world largest economy, you know, in its recent forecast, you know, China's economy, because they said back then that is supposed to expected to grow— this is the World Bank analysts, uh, saying that it's supposed to grow in '22 only from 2.7, that's it, down from 4.3%. That was the analysis they provided back then. Well, I'm here to provide you a different outcome, and this is based on information that I just got yesterday By the time you watch this video, it will be about 3 or 4 days. So anyway, China's GDP, the, the gross domestic product estimate, shows the stats, and I will provide you of course the link and all that, that the economy grow at least 4.4% in 2022. Remember what the World Bank analyst said, that the China's economy is gonna go— is gonna grow only to 2.7? So basically, China's GDP exceeded about 120 trillion yuan, which is the equivalency of $17.4 trillion this year, you know. And this is what President Xi stated during the speech he just gave 2 days ago. By the end of the year, which was on Saturday. So, so this basically suggests that China's economy grow by about 4.4%. And interesting enough is that if you compare, China's GDP was about 114.9 trillion yuan in 2021. And you look at what happened in 2022, it grow by 120%. Trillion yuan. And this is according, of course, to the National Bureau of Statistics, which just revised its estimates and analysis recently, about a week ago. So President Xi gave the year's address on Saturday, which was the end of the year, and in which he said, and I quote him, let me get you guys the quote. He said, The Chinese economy has remained the second largest in the world and enjoyed sound development. End of quote. So usually a message like this, you know, will send some sort of— what's the word I'm looking for— stability in the economy, because the markets, you know, markets does not like uncertainty. That was the reason why President Xi stated that. So, so China's expansion basically this year, which has been hammered to a degree by the, the, the, the COVID outbreak, the pandemic, of course, the lockdowns that impacted the economy within China. There is no other way of saying this because it happened, you know. But also you get the real estate market that in China which, you know, it was— I can use the term a market slump. That's the, the, uh, for the property, uh, management stuff. So, and the sluggish consumer demand, and of course you don't forget the overseas issues, not just within the Chinese domestic market. Overseas has to do with the waning, uh, sort of consumer demand and the, uh, or waning overseas appetite for Chinese global or goods also have contributed to this disruption, but it didn't impact the overall term, and I'll tell you why in the conclusion so it will make more sense to you. So analysts have forecasted that China's growth to slow— get this, guys— to slow to 3% in 2022. That was the estimate they gave. So And economic activities in December, which is just last month, it shows that it's contracted most from the previous month since February 2020. That tells you how far off the analysts or economists, whomever was doing the analysis on this one here. So, uh, by the way, if you like this video, video, please don't forget to subscribe and hit the like button. So I would greatly appreciate it. So, so here's the thing. Economists see an increase in possibility now for a faster and stronger rebound later in 2023. Well, of course they have to issue their statements because of certainty that the markets demand, but that is not the truth because there are other elements that you have to keep in mind to understand where the global economy is going, and I'm going to be touching on those as we move forward. So after the likely slow start in the January to March period, growth, growth is projected to pick up to about 4.8%, give it, give or take some. And this is again according to the median estimates of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Believe it or not, that's what they said. So within this context What the statements by President Xi, he emphasizes, and I quote here, the Chinese economy enjoys great resilience, tremendous potential, and great vitality. The fundamentals sustaining the long-term growth has remained strong, end of quote. Once again, if you are to read between the lines of what President Xi's message here is do you want to send the message of certainty in the market? Because literally the real estate issue of Evergrande, you know, it was a major one. The lockdowns, to a degree, whatever it was the case, it impacted the economy. The confidence of the consumers was impacted. And those elements, you can ignore them because we're gonna be objective in our assessment. So, but to those who said— and I watched some YouTubers who said, oh, the Chinese economy is gonna collapse. And I was just shaking my head, you know. You respect their opinion, they're entitled to say whatever they want, but I just disagreed completely. And I kind of said to myself, you guys don't jump to conclusions. You sort of, uh, that just gives an impression about you not understanding exactly what's going on, because that's what it was. So the moment I heard those who said, well, the Chinese economy is going to collapse, I kind of just shrugged that, that comment because it didn't make sense to me anyway. So as I said earlier, I'm gonna tell you why you have to keep in mind certain aspects moving forward as to why certain economists or analysts within the World Bank or the IMF will have to say that the economy, the global economy, is going to shrink, or the Chinese economy is going to collapse. And all this nonsense. But there are other aspects you need to keep in mind to understand where things are headed. So, and mainly for this video, I'm going to focus on the economic aspects. You know, geopolitics always play a role in influencing the direction one way or another, and vice versa. Economics impacts geopolitics and vice versa. So the things you're going to be— have you— the things you're going to have to watch for are, for example, inflation, okay, interest rates, okay, slowing growth, okay, and recession, okay. The other thing you need to look for moving forward in 2023 from an economic perspective is the bankruptcies. No, what do I mean by this? You have to think about, for example, European companies that will not be in a position to maintain liquidity, especially when it comes down to how they can afford to pay for the energy cost. Inflation in Europe, energy prices, food prices, you know, all this has to be taken into consideration. But there is one particular point that I'm gonna provide you my insights about it, and this has to do with fraying globalization. What do I mean by this? Well, of course, if efforts to roll back globalization accelerated this year and look to set— to continue a pace in 2023. Why is this, you may ask? Well, you have to go back a few years ago. Since its launch under the Trump administration— the Trump administration, rather— the US-China trade and the tech war has deepened under the current president, President Biden. As you may know, I'm sure you do, in August of last year, President Biden signed the CHIPS and Science Act blocking the export of advanced microchips and manufacturing equipment to China. What was the purpose of that? The purpose of the move The purpose of that was aimed at stifling, yes, stifling the development of the Chinese semiconductor industry and of course bolstering self-sufficiency in the chip, in the chip making. In my opinion, you know, the passage of the law was just the latest example of a growing trend. Like I always say, guys, watch for the trends. So to me, that passage of that law was a, an example of a growing trend away from free trade and economic liberalization towards protectionism and greater self-sufficiency, especially in critical industries linked to national security. So that's the way I see it. The way I see it is that China is going to move forward with building its own microchips. You know, you all know about the TMC that has moved to Arizona, the project. I believe I looked at— I looked into it, and the estimated cost will be about $50 billion, you know. And you know what it means? It means that Taiwan is going to lose ownership of that, which is bad news for Taiwan. So anyway, that is what I wanted to share with you this time around on this video. Hope you find the information very, very useful and informative. And if you like this video, subscribe if you have not done so and hit the like button. So as always, remember, geopolitics impact your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, guys. Bye-bye.
