China's Diplomatic Dilemma: Japan, S Korea & Risk of Betrayal! Conversation w/Carl Zha! (Part 4)

All right, hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Very excited to be with you on this weekend here on June 1st. Now we are already in the month of June, where time goes. Well, I am very excited because you all know who's here, right? A man who does not need an introduction. So anyway, let me first of all say hi to all of you here. On the channel. Matt Becky, good to see you as always. Peng Yu, Jesus Aguilar, Deji, uh, Moshi Moshi, good to see you. And Truth Seeker Noel from Singapore, good to see you here. Uh, Willie Holman as always. Uh, now this person here, I don't believe we've met before. Chek Wong Kanam, that's an interesting question you have there. The question is, can the world trust China ruled by dictator and corrupt CCP? Wow, well, you must have to learn a lot about China before you put a statement like this. So, so I don't mind you being here, but at the same time, if you have anything to contribute to the conversation, you're welcome. Otherwise, I'll ask you to take a hike, okay? Because I don't tolerate this nonsense stuff. So, all right, Maggie Anne, good to see you. Marduk 36 9. Good to see you as always, Rosio Delgado. All right guys, I am gonna have to go now, bring in my guest here because we got a lot to cover. Hi Carl!

Hi David, how are you?

Good, good to see you, man. It's so nice. You know, you know, Carl, so many in the community been asking me, when are you bringing Carl? I said, I will give it a time, guys. I will, and I will reach out to Carl. He is busy, he has things to do and all that, and he will be here. So here he is now. So I look forward to our conversation here, and it's always fascinating with you because you cover so many aspects that a lot of people in the Western world have no idea about. So, so here is what we're going to be covering, just to give you guys an idea what I will be talking to Carl about. We're going to be talking about 4 topics, believe it or not. We'll talk about the China meeting with Japan and South Korea. We'll talk about the China-Arab summit. We'll talk about the China military drill— drills that just concluded last week. And the last thing, of course, the China sanctioning US. And I'd like to have Carl's input and feedback about this. So Carl, how would you categorize this meeting that just took place between China, Japan, and South Korea. I mean, I had a chance to read the, uh, the translated version of President Xi's statement, and I would like to share it with you all before I'll turn it over to you, Carl. He said, and I quote, as change— I'm sorry, this is for— yeah, this is for the second one. Let me hold on on that. Let's move on with the China meeting with Japan and South Korea. How do you categorize it? Can China trust Japan and South Korea?

Um, it's not about matter of trust, David. Uh, China never put all its eggs in one basket. China always tries a multi-prong approach. So at this particular juncture, United States is trying to form a trilateral military alliance with, with US, Japan, and South Korea to contain China. So what China is trying to do is to counter the US diplomatic efforts, and this is by inviting South Korea and Japan to a meeting. This is China to reassure its neighbors, but also to remind them that for, for the region to prosper, peace and stability is a key, and, and not military confrontation, not what United States is trying to do. And both South Korea and Japan still heavily depend on the Chinese market. China is the world's, uh, it's one of the world's largest consumer markets. Um, both Japanese and Korean companies, they, they are heavily invested inside China, and they also sell to China. So it's, it's time to remind leaders from both nations that, uh, it's better to continue this mutually beneficial trading relationship rather than making some, uh, uh, uh, sab— saber-rattling noises with United States. And, and also, if, if a conflict is going to break out, it's not— it's going to break out first in East Asia, and that's going to impact not just China but all its neighboring countries, including South Korea and Japan. So it's, it's actually in the interest of all three countries that peace is preserved. And, and this is— it's, uh, you know, when conducting diplomacy, you know, you have to stay firm your position, and then you try to persuade others to see light from your perspective. And I think, you know, what China has on its side is this large market, it's a pursuit of, of trade relationship, you know, no matter what. And, and these are very persuasive argument for many countries in the world. And, you know, so South Korea And Japan, they have to balance their traditional military, uh, relationship with United States and a trade relationship with China. Um, you know, China is doing what it can to put more weight on its, its side of the balance. This is what China is trying to do.

Well, this is almost— yeah, it's reflective of what, uh, the, the Premier, uh, uh, uh, Li Chang said in the meeting when he said, and I quote, uh, we are here, the meeting, both as a restart and a new beginning. And he called for the comprehensive resumption of cooperation between East Asian economic powerhouse. But the question, Carla, remains: can they be trusted, Japan and South Korea? And the reason I'm saying this Yeah, the reason I'm saying this, Carl, I, I fall back to this issue of trust because I saw what took place with Philippines when Philippines took over, uh, Marcos Jr., and all of a sudden flipped.

Um, I think Philippines is a little bit different case from, uh, South Korea and Japan, even though all three states are essentially client states of the United States. You know, US have a long colonial relationship with all three, uh, countries. But in Philippine particular, you know, Philippine was a straight-out US colony since the Spanish-American War until end of World War II. But Japan and South Korea, even though they're militarily occupied, you know, with tens of thousands of US troops on their soil and, uh, and, and, and, and basically acting as vassals of United States in East Asia, But occasionally the US, the South Korean and Japanese leadership, they do try to do, do the best for their own national interest, which I don't know if I can say the same for Bongbong Marcos. You know, Philippines had a phase with Duterte trying to assert Filipino independence, but you know, now like looks like the swit— the pendulum has swing to the other side. But, um, you know, we know Japanese leaders that could not say no to the United States because whoever wants to challenge the current Japan-US security alliance, they get removed immediately. I mean, the Japanese prime minister come and go, but if they say no to US, they can never stay long in office. But on the other side, they, um, they do have a very, very much vested interest in maintaining the peace in, uh, in East Asia. Because even more so than Philippines, South Korea and Japan has a much stronger trade relationship with China. You know, both Japanese and South Korean companies are heavily investing in China, both to produce for back to their own country and also to export globally, but also to sell it to the Chinese consumer market, which is one of the largest markets in the world. So they, uh, you know, whereas the Philippines, that they, you know, their export to China are mostly, um, commodities like farm produce, like bananas, pineapples, etc. But, uh, Japan, you know, the Japanese car makers are still very entrenched in China. China is world's largest, uh, market for, for automobiles.— it's, it's larger than you— the Chinese market for, for cars is, is way bigger than, than even the, the car market in United States. So, so the Japanese companies are not— Toyota is not going to give up on the Chinese market. Um, and so there are other interest— business— Japanese and South Korean business interests that also want to maintain a healthy relationship with China. So this is a little bit different than the Philippines because the Philippines, they don't have that the same kind of the economic structure as South Korea and Japan. Um, and so there's a less, um, there's less economic incentive, especially for Bongbong Marcos, you know, when he has hundreds of billions of dollars of his dad's money. That's— yes, back home, US government, that, that's a— it's, it's, it's a much more persuasive, uh, argument for him. Whereas United— whereas Japan and South Korea, it's It's the opposite. They have hundreds of billions of dollars invested in China. You know, they, they want to— they don't want to see that investment evaporate. So, so this is what— this is why I speak about balance. You know, they have to balance between their traditional, um, client relationship with, with United States, but they also balance their trade relationship with China. And China is just like occasionally reminding them, like, look, we're here for peace, You know, peace is good for all of us in East Asia because if, if US is going to fight a conflict with China, it mostly likely to start in East Asia. It will be devastating for all the East Asian economies, whether South Korea, Japan, or, or, or, or, or China. Um, and you know, however that may escalate, but you will definitely start in the East Asian, uh, neighborhoods, and that's not in the interest of, of any of the East Asian countries involved. So this is, this is again China sending its occasional reminder and also affirming its, uh, commitment to continue the trade relationship with South Korea and Japan.

Yeah. In your opinion, Carl, why do you think President Xi didn't go and sent just the Premier to go, Li Qiang? In your opinion, well, is there any reason?

Maybe, maybe. I mean, that— this is hard to— this is kind of— I, I— because I, I can't, you know, I don't have a direct neural link to Xi Jinping, so I don't really know how the decision-making process is hammered out in, uh, in Beijing. But, um, you know, maybe, maybe this is, uh, you know, it, it doesn't need Maybe Xi Jinping feels he doesn't— it's not because also the currently there is tensions between South Korea, of course, and China, of course, because of their military alliance with United States. Um, so this is, you know, maybe Xi Jinping is reserving himself for more close allies like Putin, or you're right, or, uh, you know, the, the other leaders that in the Global South that China is wooing.

Well, I was, uh, I read up some, some analysis about, uh, even prior to the meeting as to what might transpire. One thing that caught my attention was the, the demonstrations. I'm going to share a picture here. Those are the demonstrations against the Prime Minister of Japan, Fumio Kishida. And I was very, very taken by that. I didn't— I, I admit I didn't expect it. So I was I was very, very surprised. I wonder what was the whole reason behind— they didn't disclose that in the article, by the way, which, by the way, guys, I will put the link for you for all this, including President Xi's, uh, uh, speech later on, uh, when he met with the Arab world. So, all right, let's move on to our second part, second topic here about the China-Arab Summit, which just took place recently. So as I said, I, as I mentioned earlier, I had a chance to read the translated version of the President Xi's speech, and I was very taken by the keywords that were used. And I'd like to share it with you, if you allow me here. President Xi said, and I quote, as changes unseen in a century unfold rapidly across the world, both China and Arab states strive to accomplish their historical mission of national rejuvenation and faster national development. Building a China-Arab community with a shared future is a strong statement for our common desire for a new era of China-Arab relations and a better future for the world. End of quote. What do you make out of the whole, uh, uh, uh, not only just the summit, but the, uh, the optics of it, that the— here are Arab leaders from the Gulf States not going to the US but going to China.

Well, many people may not realize the Chinese-Arab relationship goes way back. It didn't start in the modern times. It actually took place, you know, at least to the 7th century And what Xi Jinping is trying to do— bring the Belt and Road Initiative— is actually a revival of the ancient Silk Road links. And this ancient Silk Road linked China and the Arab world for centuries before the Europeans arrived in, uh, in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea. And right now, um, China is refocusing its effort diplomatic effort to the Global South because, you know, US is trying to wall itself off, and as well as its allies in Europe and also Japan, South Korea, from China. Um, and, and, and the Chinese trade relationship is growing. Uh, right now the Chinese export to the Global South have overtaken its trade with, with United States and EU. And, and so, and, and Also, uh, you know, China has a reliance on imported oil, and, and this is another additional dimension of the, the China, uh, relationship with the Gulf countries, for example. But, but beyond the Gulf countries, you know, China has a, has a longstanding relationship with Egypt, for example, um, you know, dating back to Nasser, um, and, you know, when the, when the leader, Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai, met with Nasser in Indonesia in the 1955 Bandung Conference, during the first, uh, Afro-Asiatic, uh, conference, the AKA Bandung Conference. So, so there's a long history of cooperation between China and the Arab world, uh, but in this particular juncture, you know, when Israel is committing atrocity in Gaza, China is taking a stand. It is showing its commitment to, to, to stand with the Arab world against against the Israeli action, which is backed by the United States. And, you know, this is another geopolitical, uh, tectonic shift that's taking place. You know, US is sticking by Israel no matter what, whereas China and, and Russia, they are showing solidarity with the Palestinian cause, and, and they're also deepening their engagement with the, with the Arab world. Um, And right now, Saudi Arabia— you know, United States today actually is a top oil producer of the world. The, the amount of the oil United States produce per year is, uh, people wouldn't believe it, but it's more than Saudi Arabia and Russia combined. So what that, what that means, United States is less reliant on foreign, um import. They're less reliant on, on importing from the Gulf countries, for example, whereas China is now the top destination for, for oil and gas in the Persian Gulf. And, and, and, you know, so, so that means Saudi Arabia— China is Saudi Arabia's top export market, as well as, as Iran, Qatar Bahrain, you name it. And, and, and, and which, which makes even more sense for the two sides to, to work together. And, and we're now in the age of de-dollarization when United States is growing its financial weight around, uh, sanction anybody who uses US dollars, throwing Russia off the SWIFT system. And, and this is putting people on notice, like, wait a minute, if United States can freeze Russian assets held in, uh, in the Western banks and then appropriating it. Now they're talking about using it to spend on Ukraine, right? I mean, this is— they're literally stealing a sovereign country's money. This can happen to anybody. Anybody who offends people in Washington, this could happen to them. So there's, there's a huge incentive right, right now to move off the dollar. And one of the bases for the dollar is the petrodollar system. When in the 1970s Kissinger went to Saudi Arabia, work out a deal where they will price the oil in dollars. So that means anybody who wants to import oil, they need US dollars. And this is how, how the petrodollar comes into being. But today, the, the basis of petrodollar itself is being undermined because now China is the largest consumer of oil And there's no reason, uh, China couldn't— shouldn't purchase oil in yuan because yuan is valuable now because China is a factory of the world. They, they can actually use the yuan and go purchase goods from, from China. Well, you know, before it was United States that was taking oil from, from the Arab world and then exporting manufacturing goods. Now That same dynamic is playing out between China and the Arab world. China is exporting the manufactured goods and they're taking the— they're, they're purchasing oil. And, and, and it makes less and less sense to conduct that trade in US dollars in today's environment. So we're probably going to see, um, a shift, a move off the petrodollar, I, I think, in foreseeable future. And, and China and the Arab world is paving the way for that, for that future right now.

Yeah, I'm— I won't be surprised, Carl. As a matter of fact, I've, I've had some talks with the— some people in the region, Middle East, that is West Asia, uh, those that they are very familiar with this kind of dynamics. And then most of the conversation converged on the idea that it would be just a matter of time, and that is gonna be what, what everybody's watching for right now based on the conversation that I had, is that they're watching for the signs from China, believe it or not. Not from the Arab world, from China regarding the trade. If and when China will say, sure, we'll do trade with you— this is the US— but we're not going to accept the dollar, we'll accept a different currency. Now to me, that will be the nail in the coffin. China is not willing to do this now, based on what I gathered from the conversation, because strategically doesn't make any sense. So, and I can see why. So, uh, I want to go back to the historical aspect between the link between China and the Arab world. A lot of us in the West do not understand that this goes way back. Uh, some historical record that I looked at, uh, including the Tang Dynasty and whomever comes after it, they had something called tolerance for religion, including Taoism, Buddhism, and guess what, Islam. That was part of that. So I need to ask your input, and this also based on the comments from some of, uh, the viewers or supporters of the channel. For example, I got one here, I'm going to share it with you all. K. Young Law wrote, and I quote, hello Dr. O, my understanding is the dynasty succeeding the Tang was not the Is it— do I pronounce it correctly? Sui is S-U-I. Sui Dynasty. The Sui Dynasty was a short-lived dynasty that reunified China after the Han Dynasty collapsed into the Three Kingdoms. Post-Tang Dynasty was a period of disunification known as the Five Dynasties and 10 kingdoms. After this, China was eventually somewhat reunified by the Song Dynasty. I also have to bear in mind that the transitions between these dynasties and periods overlap. End of quote. What are we looking at here, Carl?

So Islam actually arrived in China very early, in the 7th century, you know, very soon after Prophet Muhammad started preaching. And this is— they arrived via, via South China Sea from this trade, because China and the Arab world has long been linked by the Maritime Silk Road. That's, uh, see the ships traveling the Indian Ocean through the Straits of Malacca, up the South China Sea. They will land in the port of Canton, or today's Guangzhou. So, and, and there, that's where the first mosque was being built in the 7th century. And, and a Muslim community start to spring up along the southeastern China seaboard when the Arab and Persian merchants, they will arrive via the Maritime Silk Road, and they will have settled down in Chinese cities because at the time the, the, the trade is conducted by, uh, monsoon. Patterns because the Indian Ocean monsoon, they switch directions for 6 months and then switch their directions back. So the, the traders will take them when the monsoons, uh, goes from east to west, from west to east. They will depart the Arabian Peninsula, depart Persian Gulf. They will travel down the Indian Ocean to the Straits of Malacca, through the Strait of Malacca Um, they will settle there for a time and they wait for the monsoon to change direction, then they sail up to South China Sea and they do their business. But they have to stay there for 6 months for the monsoon to change, for this wind to change. So while this— during the 6 months they're settling, doing business, a lot of them start to have local families, um, and, and they have local wives and they start new communities. This is how the, the Islam spread in Southeast Asia and as well as in southern China is spread by trade. And, and this, this, uh, the Indian Ocean, uh, basin trade has been— has, has history of thousands of years before, uh, the so-called Age of Discovery, before the Portuguese break into, uh, Indian Ocean. You know what, when the Europeans came is essentially they they did not discover anything new. They took over. They took over existing trade network that was linking China, Africa, Arabia, and India. And, and so, so now what China is trying to do is try to bring back this ancient linkages. And, and so just like the, the, the, the, you know, the— it's a, it's a time when, um, you know, the Global South, and particularly, uh, the BRICS countries. Now they are composed— they have a higher GDP than the G7, right? And that trade, that trend is only continuing. And, you know, China is just deepening its engagement, um, with the globe. The, the, the— China's deepening engagement with Arab world is part of its strategy to engage further with the, with the Global South, but also reviving this ancient trade relationship.

Well, especially when we take into consideration what China's been announcing as far as the recognition of the State of Palestine. The US won't be able to do something like that, and US will not do something like that because, uh, straightforward, we have never played an honest broker into that conflict. So China seems to me it's, it's at the right time, at the right place, strategically speaking and geopolitically speaking, that is sort of filling up this void that is now existed or has existed by the United States. So very, very interesting. Uh, the idea of also, I wanted to, uh, ask you about, since you are a, a, a, a history buff guy, you know more about a history here. Um, the, uh, Japan and China. I'm gonna go back here and base again on one of the comments by, uh, one of my followers here, uh, Food Paradise 5792. He said, and I quote, modern-day katana, which is the Japanese sword, was actually an imitation of a weapon called the Tang knife, or tang blade, and add curves to it in Chinese. Now the sword is double edge. Single edge sword actually called big knife. But of course, Japanese perfected the sword making metallurgy. Japanese steel is one of the best in the world today. So is there a truth to this fact, historically speaking?

So just like China and the Arab world has a longstanding historical relationship, China and Japan relationship dates even longer. And during Tang Dynasty, that's when Japan initiated extensive cultural borrowing from China. So this is where Japan got Buddhism, it got its writing, uh, they, they, uh, because before they imported the Chinese characters, Chinese writing system wholesale. And, and they imported technologies like architecture. Uh, the, the ancient, uh, Japanese capital in Kyoto, it was actually a mini— a miniature version of the ancient Chinese, uh, capital of Chang'an, the Tang Dynasty capital. Um, and, and if you go to, um Kyoto, a lot of temples, they still have like statues that were built in the Tang Dynasty style. And the, the, the one, one technology they receive is what they're talking about, the Tang sword. The Tang— but the Tang sword is a, a straight edge weapon. So Japanese did what they do best, which is they take technology from another culture and they improvise it and then made it better. And they, they made the, uh, the blade into a carve, a, a carve-edge weapon. That's where— that's, that's the origin of katana. So, so there's a little bit truth. Yes, they, they originally, uh, received the metallurgy from China. They— but they improved it, and that's how katana came about. I mean, Japan, before, before it turned toward West, it had extensive cultural borrowing from China. I mean, the, the, the Chinese, the Japanese writing system, the, the, the, the Confucianism. Um, they, they did not receive Buddhism directly from India. They received Buddhism from China, from the Tang Dynasty. So, so Japan kind of looked toward China as a source of their culture and civilization until, uh, until the modern times, until the Meiji Restoration, you know. One of the slogans in the Meiji Restoration in the 1860s was actually leaving Asia and join Europe, because they saw the, you know, after Industrial Revolution, Europe is leaving, is leapfrogging ahead. So they wanted to adopt a wholesale westernization program in Japan. And, and so, so, you know, so, but, but still, even with the wholesale westernization program In the modern time, Japan still retained a lot of the Chinese cultural elements that they had borrowed in the time past. You know, you can see that in their architecture, in their writing, a lot. Yeah, etc., etc.

That's so funny. Uh, when I read the— you know, I, I read— I did history courses, of course, back then, and one of the things we were talking about, the samurai, just brief history, it was never mentioned of something like this because it was always presented to us as the idea that the sword, the samurai, whatever, was a Japanese creation. You know, I never knew, I never knew, Carl, the link between the sword in Japan that traces its roots back to China. We were never exposed to this.

This is why China continues its engagement with South Korea and Japan. This because Japan, what they do best is they can all, you know, whenever they see, they see which way the wind is blowing, they always side with the strongest. You know, when China was strong, Japan, you know, did a lot of cultural borrowing from China. When the West became ascendant, Japan suddenly, you know, start to emulate the West, you know, so that, you know The wind might shift again. I mean, I think the wind is shifting already. And, and, and, you know, currently United States is still the, you know, the global hegemon. So, so Japan sides with US. But when, you know, if when the US status, a global hegemon, gets challenged, when it gets dislodged from its top number one spot, you know, you know, I can conceivably, I can see Japan revert back to its traditional role. And, and, and, and, and to continue its relationship with China. So this is— China is playing the long game, right? I mean, like, a lot of Americans don't— are not even aware of all this historical relationship in East Asia, right? They, they, they, uh, you know, they can't— they can't even find this country on a map anyway. But, but, but China is a very deeply historically conscious country. You know, they, they remember their past and they understand how this game is played. You know, countries like South Korea and Japan, they will side with the strongest power in the region. Right now, United States is still on paper the military, uh, in terms of military power, the strongest power in East Asia. So for now, Japan and South Korea may be vassals to the United States. But that time may change, you know, that time may change. China is building up foundations right now for that shift, for the future shift.

Very interesting. And given our short history, uh, 200-plus years ain't enough in comparison to those old civilizations. So it will be interesting to see how this develop and what will the US do. Even though I am looking over the horizon, Carl, And I just don't see good stuff lying as to what the US forward slash collective West is going to do in the Far East. So let's hope, uh, things will go a different, different direction for that one. So, uh, I want us to shift to, uh, recent China's military drills, and I'm going to share one statement here by the head of the, uh, uh, the Pacific Command who said, and I quote, China's military exercises last week looks like a rehearsal for a Taiwan invasion, end of quote. This is of course what— which, when I read it, I, I had the same reaction, Carl. I was just laughing at the stupidity that the top high-ranking officers in, in the Pentagon they, they just lack the depth in understanding, uh, what this is all about. What do you make out of that?

Well, they also have an incentive to lie, to exaggerate, to resort to hyperbolic devices in order to drive up the Pentagon budget to more than a trillion dollars. And the, the thing is, you know, for a, a, a military operation like, yeah, for, you know, China's People's Liberation Army to cross over Taiwan Strait to take over. This is a huge undertaking. It, it will take months of preparation. I mean, that it will make the landing in Normandy, uh, like a cakewalk, um, and, and in today's environment. So if China were to, to do a trial run, you know, you will be able to see the true mobilization on the coast opposite of Taiwan Strait, like 6 months in advance. So that's how far, you know, how long they will need to, to gather the troops, gather the materials, logistics. You know, in today's world, you can observe it by satellites. What China is doing is, is, is, uh, this is what United States term quote-unquote gray zone aggression, because China is not initiating a conflict. China is actually not firing a shot. What, what China is doing is asserting its sovereignty rights to, to Taiwan because China says Taiwan is part of China. So, you know, we will, we will, we will assert our sovereignty rights by patrolling around it. Um, now China didn't used to do this, uh, but this is how China responded to series of provocations started with, uh, United States weapon sale to Taiwan, Nancy Pelosi flying to Taiwan. So every Time after such event, China will up the ante. So immediately after Pelosi visited Taiwan, um, China didn't shoot Pelosi down, you know, they let Pelosi land and leave. But right after Pelosi left, that's when China announced, okay, we're gonna do military draw around Taiwan right now. And guess what? There's nothing United States could do. And, and again, this, uh, this time it was more a response to the inauguration speech of the new incoming Taiwan leader. Um, you know, because the, the new Taiwan leader, Lai Ching-te, he is a— compared to his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen, Tsai Ing-wen was an opportunist, a political opportunist. Uh, you know, she, she just says whatever to get votes, you know, get— continue the grift. But Lai Ching-te, many people believe he's a true believer the, his, his party platform, which is actually Taiwan independence. Uh, you know, in his inaugural speech, he said, he actually said, you know, United States will come to our aid, right? Like, like, uh, his predecessor never even said that. His predecessor was very, very smart about it. Taiwan just say, oh, the world loves Taiwan, United States love Taiwan, Europe love Taiwan, Japan love Taiwan. But what does that love actually mean? She, she never specified. But Lai Ching-te actually explicitly said, oh, United States will come to our aid. And this is, uh, this another sign of him being a true believer. You know, his belief is that if he push for Taiwan independence, for example, United States will pay in, in both blood and treasure, right? But that's not how United United States functions. You know, if you look at Ukraine, this is how United States like to fight proxy wars. You know, it doesn't like to engage directly against a peer competitor, um, especially a nuclear-armed power. What United States like to do is engage in proxy wars like in Ukraine. They want to bleed Russia to the last Ukrainians. So this is why you, you see a lot of the English language media, right now talking about why Taiwan is not spending enough on their defense, why Taiwan is not preparing, uh, its military for the— to, to fight China, right? Because they want to put the burden on Taiwan. This is why the opposition, uh, parties in, uh, uh, in Taiwan, they say, they, they talk about Taiwan, it's United States relationship as between, um, you know, that of a dog and its owner. So like, like, like a, you know, regular relationship between dog and the owner. The owner provides the food for the dog. But right now, United— if Taiwan is to be a watchdog for United States in East Asia, US expecting Taiwan, the dog, to pay for its own food. Because right now Taiwan is is one of the best customers of US, uh, defense industry. You know, the $8 billion, um, that was sent, authorized for Taiwan— I, I look at the details of the Congress, uh, bill for sending $8 billion, quote unquote, aid to Taiwan. It was not aid. It was not— they're not giving money to Taiwan. So out of the $8 billion, about $2 billion was just authorizing release of weapons that Taiwan has already paid for but United States have not delivered. And a lot of the holdup is actually because the US defense industry is stretched right now. They can't— yeah, they can't complete— they have a lot of backlog orders. And this is, this is another problem US Empire is facing, is the deindustrialization for the last 30 years have went on so far, you know. Now, like, the whole purpose of military-industrial complex is feeding money, right? But right now they're taking the money, but they're not— they're not producing, they're not delivering. So Taiwan has paid $2 billion for those US weapons already, but they have not been delivered to Taiwan. And, and, and, and so Because unlike Ukraine, Taiwan is a very rich country. They can afford— they can afford to pay for their weapon. They don't need US Congress to give them money to buy weapon. They have— and, and they, they do. They, you know, a lot. And, and another portion of the $8 billion is not even given to Taiwan, is given to Pentagon to do what is necessary for them to, to ensure defense of Taiwan. So So it's actually spending on, on US military. It's, it's a— you— is all the money eventually cycle back to the US military-industrial complex. You know, none of that $8 billion is really given to Taiwan. Um, and so, so, so this is, again, this is, uh, this is a role that United States expect Taiwan to play. It's, it's supposed to be this, uh mil cow that continue to produ— uh, to provide for money for the, uh, for the defense industry like Raytheon, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, etc. This is why China is placing sanction on the US defense industry because they understand how the game is played. You got to go, go ahead, hit them where it hurts. Um, and, and these companies have been profiting for decades selling all kind of expensive but ultimately outdated and useless weapon platform to Taiwan. Uh, like, you know, they're— Taiwan is buying like Abrams tanks. Like, what, what do you need? Why do you need Abrams tanks on an island? You know, by the time you need to use those tanks, it's too late. It's too late. Um, and so, so there, this is, um, there's Of course there are people in Pentagon, you know, they're, they're saying the same thing, but what they're saying, they wanted Taiwan to spend more to buy different weapon platform, um, you know, probably buying from preferably from those lobbyist sponsors, right? And, and this is all a game for grip, but, but China understand how the game is played, so they're like, okay, we understand the issue. The Taiwan issue is really an issue between United United States and China. And so we're gonna hit the, the biggest sponsor of the Taiwan Strait tension, which is the Chinese military-industrial complex.

Wow, very, very interesting. Well, what's also confusing to me was how delusional this, uh, the guy in Taiwan— I call him the governor because I don't believe in, you know, because Taiwan is not a sovereign state. How can you call somebody a president when that entity is not a sovereign. So that's the way I always refer to him, as a governor. So to me, it was delusional when he's saying that the US is gonna come to the aid. You will think he will learn from what's going on in Ukraine, that I ain't gonna help Ukraine, I ain't gonna help Taiwan, I'm gonna help the Philippines or Australia or New Zealand for that matter, let alone— we don't want to get into a confrontation with China. Straightforward. Logistically, it won't make any sense for us. We will be at a disadvantage because the proximity where China is versus for us, by the time we move all the ships through the Indian Ocean, they will be dealt with right there before they get close by. And to me, it was like, what is he on drugs or what? What was he smoking that day of the inauguration? For him to be stating something like this. And this reminds me, by the way, Carl, of your conversation that you had a few weeks ago in a panel when you mentioned about the US as being a child, like a child. I think, I think Scott didn't, didn't understand what you were referring to. I really get it because I was listening and, and I see your point. Yeah, most of the West here, they won't get it. They won't get that one. That's why I was like Very interesting. And I could see why Scott didn't, didn't get down.

Scott Ritter, he, he's very good at understanding the US mentality. Yeah, which is crazy. It's like craze on hegemony, right? Scott Ritter understands that, that mentality very well, which I also understand. But this is what we call being a children throwing tantrum in the rest of the world. You, you know, it's like a baby holding a very powerful weapon, like Everybody's scared of the baby. He's like, okay, we have to handle him with kid gloves. But it doesn't mean that that person is not a baby, you know. He's still, it's still a baby, uh, and it's not being responsible, right? And that, that's the thing. Um, so, so yeah, I, I mean, like, I, I understand what Scott Ritter is saying. Like, he, he's totally right on, on how crazy, how crazy the US politicians are, um, you know, how crazy, crazy they would go, how far they would go to defend the US hegemony. I understand that, we get that, but that is not an adult behavior. That's a very childish behavior. Uh, and this is why, you know, uh, you know, people, people, people understand how US functions, how US works, but people, people have their own plans for the future, and they're moving on without United States right now.

Yeah, and we are about to pay the price, especially after what, uh, uh, uh, Biden said by authorizing now weapons to be used against inside Russia. You know, you'll think about how, how childish and crazy our politicians are, you know. So I, I truly understood your point when you mentioned about Americans being— American government in this case being like a child, because child doesn't care. He doesn't know. So, and, and, and it just crossed my mind while I was talking, uh, while we were talking about this particular topic. This leads me now to talk about our last point here before I turn it over to the, uh, uh, uh, some questions here. The sanctioning of the US defense contractor, 12 of them. Now, if I am to look at this, uh, Carl If I am to look at it from, let's say, an outsider— let's say I'm not an American, I'm just an independent from some neutral country, even though there is no such thing, even Switzerland is not neutral anymore— uh, if I'm to look at it, I'm going to say to myself, well, China's being conservative, it's not being very aggressive into the sanctions, even though it's doing tit for tat. Which is the right move per se, but is China going far enough with the aggression, with the sanctions rather, to make a dent?

Well, what China is doing is sending a message, sending a signal. China is not interested into, or into a full-out economic war with United States, uh, uh, unlike some US politicians because, you know, China— look at what China actually did. They invited all the top US executives to visit China. They invited Tim Cook, uh, Bill Gates, and, uh, and Elon Musk. And China hosted, you know, all the, uh, even all the Wall Street types, you know, from JP Morgan and stuff. So China says, okay, we're open for business, we're not targeting US firms operating, investing in China, because we understand they, they bring value and they add on to the Chinese economy. And US defense industry, on the other hand, they add nothing to the Chinese economy, right? So this is very targeted, very specific targeted, uh, sanction. Um, and, and, and again, I mean, it might not be very substantial, but it's China is sending a message. China— but what I'm interested if there's going to be follow-up, because United States defense industry, they still require a lot of components and a lot of, uh, uh, rare earths, right? I mean, China controls like 90% of the rare earth production. So what I would like to see is China banning the export of rare earth to the U.S. defense industries. You know, not, not a blanket ban to United States, but, but ban— I mean, which means they will probably get it from third party, but still, you know. Yeah, that would make a statement, say like, look, you know, you're not going to use our rare earth in your missiles, your, your guidance systems, your, your, um, your weapons. Um, and, and this is— I have to look into the, the specifics of the China sanctions to see if that's covered. That's what I like to see, like, because this is an area where China do control most of the production, and they could— whereas the— there's actual dependency by the United States defense industry on these Chinese imports. Um, and so, so I, I, you know, I like to see, uh, how that plays out. But, but China does not— is not interested in, um, a trade war with US. China very much would like to have a revert back to a normal trade relationship with United States. You know, China loves to do business. I mean, I mean, there's still— is right now it's United States that's putting up all the trade barriers, you know, with, uh, with Biden slapping like 200% tariffs and Chinese goods and Chinese EVs and stuff. Um, this is because China United States is realizing they are losing competitive— they don't have— they cannot compete head and toe with the Chinese manufacturing prowess. So this is why they're building up trade barriers. You know, before, when US companies could just walk over local competition, that's, you know, during Bill Clinton era, that's when they, they're promoting free trade all over the world. It's like free trade, free trade, because they know big US multinational would just walk in and buy up everything. But now they're facing competition. Now they're putting up barriers. I mean, it's, it's, uh, so, you know, we'll, we'll have to see how that plays out. But, but I think China is still holding up, um, is still dangling its allure, its own market toward the US business community. Like, look, look, you, we are still here you if you want to do business. You know, if you could just rein in your crazy politicians for a second, we can continue this trade relationship. But, but the problem is there's a big shift in balance in United States. There used to be a pro-engagement camp and, and the pro-containment camp. The pro-containment camp was dominated by Pentagon. Pro-engagement camp was dominated by US business. But lately, the pro— the, the pro-engagement camp got eviscerated. The, the pro-containment camp dominated by Pentagon dictating all level of US policy. And one part of it is also because the, the, the, the US business now has been divided, with, with some business facing stiff competition from China. So they actually want to contain China. I'm talking about Facebook, I'm talking about Google, because they, they are, they are, uh, you know, they're facing tough competition from TikTok, so they want to ban TikTok. You know, for them, because they don't have— they have limited exposure to the Chinese market, they— whereas they're more embedded with the US industrial military intelligence complex, they have more incentive to jump on the pro-containment bandwagon because Google and, and Facebook, they also sell all kind of surveillance, uh, software to United States, and they have all the defense contract with Pentagon, etc. Um, so, so yeah, we have to wait and see how that dynamic plays out internally. I mean, we're having an election coming up, right? I mean, like, let's see. I, I think Biden is a, is a preferred candidate for the US. You know, he's an establishment candidate because he at least talk about building alliances, you know, uh, you know, whereas Trump is all about, you know, we can do this alone. And a lot of the NATO people, you know, they, they don't like Trump because they feel Trump is unpredictable. He will throw— but, but, but, but at this current rate, I don't think Biden is gonna win, and, and we could very possibly looking at a Trump, uh, presidency. Now, now Trump is a guy who initiated like kind of the sharp downturn in the US-China relationship, but on the other hand, you know, Biden made it worse, you know. So it's not like Biden and Trump, you know, one is better for US-China relationship, but Trump is a businessman. That means he sees everything as transactional-based, you You know, it's possible to negotiate with a businessman rather than, uh, uh, like a zombie, a propped-up zombie like Biden. Because, you know, we know Biden is actually not pulling the strings. It's, it's, it's, uh, you know, the, the, the establishment backers who are, who are, who are really the US deep state.

Yeah, well, that's why they want him to win, because he doesn't know what's going on anyway, so Uh, I'm assuming that's the reason why. But, but for us in the US, we don't have any leaders whatsoever. Both parties— I've always said this— both parties are two faces of the same coin. Doesn't matter. I mean, Trump himself now is threatening the Europeans with tariffs. Yeah, he's already stated that. He's even trying to deport whoever support Palestinians right here in the state. That's how crazy That's how crazy Trump is. And the whole system in America, where— what has become of it, you know, which usually it's not a good sign for a declining country. Usually those are the signs that indicates the decline is inevitable. The question is how it's gonna go out. And that is where, personally for me, where my concern is. And I do see over the horizon, it's the Far East. Where the next tension, once the dust settles on this Ukraine issue, because Ukraine is over, uh, this summit that they calling for in Switzerland, which by the way, guys, I will be talking about that on Monday. It's nothing but a facade. It's nothing but a farce. No more, no less.

They didn't invite Russia. They didn't even invite Russia.

The main party to the problem, to the conflict is not invited. How do you call this a peaceful summit? We all know. I mean, China now made it clear as to why it refused. Of course, they were asking the Chinese for some other stuff. I had to find out exactly why the Chinese turned it down, and rightly so, because China wanted to be on the right side of history. How can you invite us to attend the summit when you are not inviting the, the parties that's supposed to be in the summit, the Russia, that is?

So it makes perfect sense.

I could see where this is going. But, uh, to go back to your point about when you say about the competition and so forth, uh, regarding the Facebook and Google, which you were right, it's because we saw the same thing with Huawei. When Huawei developed the phone, I remember I was still in DC at that time, and the world was like, oh, why ain't gonna allow our phone to be here on the market? And I remember having a conversation with I say, why not? I mean, the phone is only $128 versus $500 from Apple. Well, I said, Mr. O, this is the reason why they're gonna— I think the government is going to step in now and ban it and say it has to do with spying. And I was like just shaking my head. It's because it was about the share of the market, and most Americans had no clue. They bought the arguments that it was the uh, Huawei phones will spy on you, whatever. It's like iPhone doesn't do it, or the—

yeah, the US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, she said she was upset when Huawei came out with a new flagship phone. Like, why would you care? Why would you— you are the freaking US Commerce Secretary. Why would you care if Huawei makes a commercial phone? I mean, like, she made it her, like, stake her whole career on stopping Huawei to produce a, a consumer phone. It's crazy.

Yeah, because they don't want— the deal was between Apple and the government. Because, you know, to us is not a secret because we've been inside. We understand how the system works. You know, all those companies, for you, for you guys, if you're an American watching this, this shouldn't shock you. You know, Apple, Google, all those are the back door for the US government. Straightforward. There is no ifs and buts, you know. You know, they're watching you, they're listening to you, they— it's just the norm. So for them to be making that argument about Huawei stuff, but sometimes this is where you realize we are losing, we are losing the edge to the competitiveness. We did this to Huawei, they went ahead and developed their own chips. Now China is saying, why will we ever care about getting chips from the West? We can build our own. And that's why we are not realizing here what it's going to do to us. Most Americans have no clue what lies ahead. And, and that's, to me, was the idea of these sanctions. Uh, it was, it was almost a sign for me that, uh, China is in a point right now where it says you know what, enough of this nice talk. It's a strategic move, of course. They're going to be very, very smart about it. But at the same time, it's, uh, to me, sending that message on the global stage as time has come for us to look at you in the eye and say, even you, you will be sanctioned. That's how I read it. That's how I read it. So, all right, let me take a few questions from some of you guys for Carl. First of all, I want to say thank you to Lester Banana. Thank you so much for buying me instant coffee even though it's nighttime for me, but thank you. I'll have it tomorrow. Much appreciated. Uh, let me see who else. Oh, Jane, Jane Wong. I hope I pronounce it correctly. Evening time from Cambridge, Massachusetts. Thank you so much for being here and for supporting the channel. All right, let me take one. I saw one question here from Hong Wong. Let me get to it because it's a lot there. I don't know how many we have, over a few thousand or so live watchers here, Carl. Uh, we had a very interesting conversation yesterday with Dr. Yan Liang. She's an economist. There was very, very interesting conversation. So I look forward to having more conversation. We need to do a panel conversation, Carl. Who do you suggest I invite?

Are you asking me?

Yes, I am asking you because I trust you.

I, I, I don't know, you know. Well, maybe we can do another debate with Scott Ritter on your show. I'm just kidding, uh, you know Whoever, you know, I love to talk. You know me, David.

Yeah, no, I would not reach out to Scott anymore because I did few times, never heard back. To me, it's like an insult, you know what I mean? You know, I reached out to Professor Qiu Jin. You know who she is? She's in London School of Economics.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, she's great.

Yeah. Oh, she is. Guess what, Carl? I sent an email. Within 24 hours, her publicist Paul sent me an email right back. They said, sorry, Dr. O, she just cannot make it this time around. That doesn't mean she won't. And to me, it was like, you know, that's just a courtesy, you know. I've been sending email and text to Scott, never heard back, and I'm done. That's it, Scott. Because I don't chase after people. To me, it's an insult. So anyway, here's a question from Hong Wong, one of the avid supporters for the channel. Thank you very much for the Super Sticker, by the way. Uh, this is question for you, Carl. I heard that Taiwan sent American military weapons to China for repair, and he put the source in Chinese there. Uh, can you confirm this? And is, is it of one or of more?

Uh, I, I, I wouldn't be surprised. I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if the Pentagon sends, uh, equipment to China for repair. At this point, so much has been outsourced. To China. Um, you know, I, I know at least at one point the US military, uh, uniform was made in China. I don't know if it's still true, but, you know, like, I— it's in, in today's environment, that, that wouldn't surprise me.

Wow. Uh, I got a question from another, uh, avid supporter, Richard Seeker. Thank you very much for being here. Question for Carl: did Scott— Scott, he's referring to Scott Ritter— about the conversation you had Uh, did Scott change his narrative about China? He stated as soon as Chinese destroyed the US carrier, nukes will start right away to destroy China.

Well, he— no, I don't think he necessarily changed his position. I think he just stating a US position. I mean, this openly— this is not a secret. This being openly talked about in, in different Pentagon, uh, think tanks. They have talked about if the US carrier gets sunk, uh, in a conflict with China, that US will resort to tactical nuclear weapons. Um, and they even talk about, uh, nuking a, a PLA Navy port of Zhanjiang, which is just north of the Hainan Island. Um, these things are openly discussed. Yeah, this is, this is not a secret for people who pay attention to that sort of things. Um, I mean, this might just be some, uh, you know, think tanks just, just throwing crazy stuff out there, but I wouldn't be surprised if that's actual, you know, there's actual contingency plans for that. But this is what they let us know. They let the public know what their plans are. Um, so this is what, what Scott is referring to. This is not his own position. This is just, what some Pentagon planners are, are kind of, uh, throwing out there.

Okay, there's another question from Tamputra. Good to see you and thank you very much. Uh, please ask Carl to invite— I don't know how to pronounce that one, Carl— for a Taiwanese perspective. I don't know what he's referring to here.

Oh, oh, he's talking about Xiang Yu. Xiang Yu is a, a, a Taiwanese guy who who is currently in Taiwan. Uh, he, he just went back to Taiwan to serve his mandatory of service because all Taiwan, uh, uh, males between a certain age, they have to do, uh, like basically a military draft. Um, but he was, uh, I think he was, he, he was past the age, so he, instead of doing like a, a stint in the military, he was basically working as a, as a as a fireman for, for like 6 months, or no, for a whole year. He was in Taiwan for a whole year. So he, he knows a lot about Taiwan, and he's, uh, um, and, and he, he's— and what's different about him is he's pro-unification. He's, he's, he's very much supporting Taiwan, uh, reunify with mainland China.

Well, we'll be happy to have him on the show. And to me, it's not about pro or against, I don't care. As long as person makes the argument that my audience here will benefit from, to learn from. To me, I respect differences of opinions as long as they make sense. Of course, if somebody starts spewing nonsense, I kind of— I have to stop it because I just don't tolerate this kind of nonsense. But if they are— because to me, you know what, Carl, I always look at it as a responsibility. The time my viewers are giving me here by coming and watching. You know how many, as I mentioned, and I'm not saying it to be Mr. Nice, that ain't my personality, they've been asking any comments, when are you bringing Carl? I said I will, I will. So it's because that's what I— that's what they expect from me here. So, so if this person would love to come on the show, why not? We'll do a panel conversation and we'll, we'll address it from the bigger picture if I may. So, all right, let me see one more question here before I let you guys— I'll let you, Carl, go. And I am very grateful, by the way, uh, carving out time for me here. So let me see if there's a question. I don't think so, we have any. All right, guys. All right, Carl, well, I'll give you the final word here. Where do you see things moving forward?

Well, I think the things— yeah, the things will move forward the same it has been for the past decades. I mean, I think, I think U.S. will continue its, uh, its path of self-destruction. And a lot of the problems the U.S. Empire facing today is not even due to China or Russia, it's self-inflicted. And, and, but that's true, the, the, the, the, none of the U.S. elite factions are interested to actual fixing the problem, you know, like, oh, you know, what's interesting about Trump is he, you know, he is, he is, uh, he's unlike Biden and, uh, and, and Obama who are just basically the candidate for Wall Street and the US deep state. Trump just shows the emperor has no clothes, you know, he is very naked about, uh, state the US intentions very nakedly to the shout it, shout it to the whole, whole world. So, so people see what US is really about rather than, you know, all these talks of promoting democracy and human rights. Um, so, you know, like, I— it's gonna be a shit show, David. It's gonna be a complete shit show in the next few months. We're gonna have to see, uh, how it all plays out. But I will be here. I'll be here with you, and we'll talk Yeah, yeah, well, for sure.

I mean, to me it's always been about, you know, the leader is a reflection of the country, of the people. That's how I always looks at it. You know, the one who leads is usually reflects. Ah, it's the truth, Carl. I know it's a lot of Americans, and most of us will not— they don't think in these terms, but they don't understand that is the leaders reflecting onto this, on society, how it is, the people of society. Because people are who they make a country, and the leader is a reflection of that. And we see in where we are. So Carl, I can't thank you enough, brother. I truly appreciate you carving out time for me here and for my audience, and I look forward to having you next time. And, uh, Ouyana, we'll talk offline, of course, but we will be talking about who we invite for a panel conversation. Why not? I'd be happy to do that. So once again, thank you, Carl. Truly appreciate you, man. All right, guys, I hope you'll, you'll find it very interesting. Carl is always very interesting to listen to. And yes, I'll be talking with him later on. Also, we might invite some individual just to do a panel conversation, and, and I'll put the question for you in the, in the community and get some suggestion feedbacks and all that, uh, and I'll check the person if I happen not to know who the person is, and I'll run it also with, with Carl because I, I trust Carl and I always converse with him about all this. Then we'll have a panel conversation. So, uh, remember to join me on Monday for the conversation about why China refused— and I use the term refused— to attend the so-called Ukraine Global Summit. Which is a farce anyway, by the way. So remember to join me on, uh, on, on Monday. As always, remember, geopolitics impact your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, guys, bye-bye.