In this YouTube episode, the host examines how Western sanctions intended to cripple Russia’s economy have instead reshaped global energy markets and accelerated a shift toward a multipolar financial order. The narrative begins by debunking the expectation that sanctions would collapse the ruble and Russia’s export revenues, showing that by late 2024 Russia earned roughly $192 billion from oil and fuel—far exceeding its defense budget—and redirected the bulk of its crude to China and India, which together absorbed about 84 % of Russian oil exports. The episode details Russia’s rapid de‑dollarisation, with around 90 % of its trade now settled in rubles or partner currencies, and highlights the EU’s evolving sanctions package, including upcoming bans on re‑exports via India and Turkey. It then contrasts Europe’s reliance on costly U.S. LNG—record‑high shipments in early 2025 that are 20 % above the previous year and priced at a multiple of pre‑war pipeline gas—with the decline in Asian LNG imports as Europe hoards cargoes. The host recounts the early‑war sanctions shock to the ruble, the subsequent rebound aided by capital controls and soaring oil prices, and the strategic pivot toward China, where Russian oil, coal, and LNG exports have surged, supported by yuan‑ruble payment mechanisms and the Power of Siberia pipelines. The sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines is presented as a loss of Russian leverage that spiked European gas prices, further driving demand for U.S. LNG. Throughout, the analysis frames these developments as a broader contest over financial and energy dominance, warning that the West’s weaponisation of the dollar is prompting a shift toward a multipolar currency order. The episode concludes with a sponsored segment promoting DeFi Technologies (NASDAQ: DEFT), outlining the company’s impressive crypto‑asset performance, diversified subsidiaries, high‑yield staking and arbitrage desks, and its positioning as a profitable, publicly‑traded crypto manager.
Chapters
They said sanctions will destroy Russia. The ruble will collapse. The economy will crumble. But nearly 3 years into the conflict, Russia's energy exports are surging, and the West is paying more than ever. What if the real victim of the economic war wasn't Russia at all? In today's episode, we break open the US-Russia economic battlefield. Fueled by oil, gas, and global power plays. From pipelines to price caps, from SWIFT bans to yuan deals, the war has reshaped global energy and pulled China closer than ever into the heart of Euro-Asia's rise. This isn't just about Ukraine; it's about the collapse of a world order and the fight to control what replaces it. A big thank you to today's show sponsor, DeFi Technologies. Let's jump in. Even as Western sanctions bite, Russia's energy exports remain robust. By late 2024, China and India together took roughly 84% of Russian crude oil exports. Allowing Moscow to sustain record export volumes. In fact, Russia earned about $192 billion from crude and fuel exports in 2024, far above its $110 billion defense budget. These proceeds have underpinned the ruble, which stabilized near pre-war levels after an initial plunge. Studies show that once Russia redirected supplies to Asia via longer shipping routes, the G7 price cap had only a negligible effect on export prices. In practice, Russia sold oil at a steep discount to India—around $15-16 a barrel below Brent crude, half due to shipping distance, and revenues actually rose with surging prices. The European Union leaders nonetheless tout new sanctions. The EU foreign policy chief, Kaia Kallas, hailed the July 2025 sanctions package as one of the strongest to date.— even as additional loopholes are being closed. For example, reexports via India and Turkey will be banned from January 2026. Russia has quietly shifted its trade to rubles and local currencies. Around 90% of Russia's trade by value is now settled in rubles or the partner currencies, as economists have noted on social media. A dramatic de-dollarization. Meanwhile, countries like India are buying record volume of Russian oil on the cheap. In 2024, nearly 36% of India's crude imports came from Russia, up from 2% before the war, drawn by prices between $7 to 14% below international benchmarks. With Europe largely shut out of pipeline gas, demand for Russian coal and liquefied natural gas from Asia has jumped. According to CREA data, in December 2024, the top importers of Russian fossil fuel were China, India, and Turkey.— each far ahead of any European Union buyer. At the same time, the U.S. has surged LNG to Europe. U.S. liquefied natural gas exports are running at a record high. January to April 2025 shipments are about 20% above last year, with the EU buyers taking 77% of US cargoes. See the image below. This flood of liquefied gas fills the gap left by Russian pipeline cuts, but at much higher prices. Europe's utilities still remark that pipeline gas is substantially cheaper than LNG. Indeed, Europe's spot TTF gas price, white line in the chart, spiked into 2022 before easing back. Higher LNG costs means European consumers pay for more. US LNG sells at a multiple of pre-war pipeline prices, even as it is temporarily secure winter fuel. The above charts illustrate US LNG destinations in early 2025. When you look at Europe, you look at France, UK, Netherlands, etc., took about 77% of US shipments while Asia shares collapsed. Flashback: the Ukraine war as economic catalysts. When the Russian-Ukraine conflict began in February 2022, The West responded with unprecedented sanctions. Within days, the U.S. froze Russian central bank reserves and banned major banks from SWIFT, and the EU cut off roughly 70% of Russia's banking system from global markets. The ruble initially crashed, trading around 150 rubles per $1 by early March as capital fled. Former President Biden famously quipped that sanctions had reduced the ruble to rubble. In practice, however, emergency capital controls and the spike in oil prices reversed the plunge. By late March 2022, the ruble was back near pre-war levels. One analysis notes that Western measures almost immediately shrank the ruble's value, but by the autumn, the currency rebounded sharply as exports poured in. The Central Bank tightened and banned FX outflows, further propping up the currency. In parallel, Russia accelerated de-dollarization. Putin decreed in March 2022 that unfriendly buyers of Russian gas must pay in rubles. Europe bristled. Most EU nations stuck to agreed contracts in dollars or euros, vowing unity about 97% of existing contracts were in Western currency. A few exceptions emerged. Hungary openly said it was prepared to pay in rubles if Moscow demanded it. Such maneuvers arguably shielded Gazprombank from sanctions, and Russia began selling oil and grain in yuan and rubles to willing buyers. By early 2024, economists like Kathleen Tyson noted on X that 90% of Russian trade is now in rubles or partner currencies. In short order, Russia had cut its dollar reserves from 30% in 2018 to under 7% of its central bank holdings by 2022, replacing them with gold. And by the way, gold shares rose from 17% to 21.7% in addition to yuan. This shift weakened the dollar's role. As one analyst puts it, the West's weaponization of the US dollar has pushed many countries towards local currency trade. Globally, the sanction war is viewed as a test of financial power. Voices in the Global South warned that treating the dollar as a political weapon strains trust in Western finance. For example, Bloomberg commentators on X cautioned, "Don't mix the timeline of a financial tool with that of a gun. Sanctions take time to bite. The concern is that their heavy-handed measures are driving a multipolar currency order. Moreover, the U.S. doubled down on alternative fuel routes. Soon after 2022, the U.S. began maximizing LNG to Europe and even hinted at taking over former Russian market. Example: One Bloomberg program argued that U.S. could supply gas that Europe loses from Russia. In practice, U.S. LNG to Europe jumped dramatically. Reuters found the EU nations' purchases up 49% year-to-year in early 2025. Offsetting decline elsewhere. Energy at the Core. Energy exports have long been the lifeblood of the Russian economy. Oil and gas account for roughly 30% of GDP and finance most state revenue. In 2024, Russia took in roughly $192 billion from oil and petroleum products, more than its entire defense budget. Western sanctions have homed in on this sector. Nord Stream pipelines became a focal point. Nord Stream 2 was built to double direct gas to Germany, but it ran into political headwinds. Congress imposed sanctions on firms involved in NS2.. And although the Biden administration briefly waived penalties in 2021 to repair US-German ties, leaders warned that pipeline was bad for Europe. By September 2022, the situation culminated in a near-total collapse of the project. Explosives leaked rendered both Nord Stream 1 and two unusable. Analysts noted this removed one of Russia's last gas levers. The sabotage of Nord Stream pipelines means Russia loses an element of leverage it still had over Europe. As the Nord Streams went down, Europe's gas prices briefly spiked. In late 2022, Europe's TTF benchmark hit record high, as you see on the white line, as supplies tightened. With Russian pipeline volume cuts—25% drop in 2022—Europe scrambled to replace fuel, tapping the spot coal markets and ramping LNG and Norwegian flows. By 2023, the energy crunch had eased somewhat due to high storage and new imports, but industrial consumers faced much higher bills than pre-war. The US positioned itself as an alternative supplier. The US LNG exports to Europe surged. January-April 2025 volume was about 20% higher than a year earlier. With the European prices between $15 to $30, well above U.S. Henry Hub around $2 to $3. Officials note that pipeline gas remains cheaper per unit than liquefied natural gas, so Europe views U.S. shipments as a short-term fix. Asia, meanwhile, lost out. Reuters reports: that January through April 2025 liquefied natural gas imports by Asian countries were about 41% below a year earlier as Europe absorbed cargoes. In sum, sanctions and sabotage cost Europe in dollars but as a backlash have made Europe reliant on more expensive non-Russian supplies. China's strategic role. Moscow's pivot to China has accelerated the Euro-Asia energy remapping. Total China-Russia trade has more than doubled since 2020, reaching about $245 billion in 2024. Virtually all of Russia's export growth to China comes from energy. For example, Russian oil exports to China jumped to 108 million tons in 2024. That's an increase of 30% versus in 2022, making China Russia's largest oil customer. Russia also shiploads of coal and liquefied natural gas to China. Chinese imports of Russian liquefied natural gas tripled to 8.3 million tons in 2024. Energy dominates bilateral trade. Russia exports to China by commodity, as you see on the charts between 2019 and 2024. Pipeline gas is on steep rise. The Power of Siberia pipeline began flows in 2019 and is set for 33 billion cubic meters by 2025. China is now considering the 50 billion cubic meters per year Power of Siberia 2 pipeline from Siberia West, though Beijing has proceeded cautiously. Meanwhile, Moscow offers oil in yuan ruble deals. By early 2024, about 40% of Russia's trade, especially in energy, was dominated in renminbi. China's central bank has connected Russia to its Cross-Border Interbank Payment System, known as CIPS. Underlying this shift: trade data, shows fossil fuels are half of Russia's exports to China. China now buys more Russian oil than any other country and is beginning to accept Russian gas and coal at a steep discount. In 2022 through 2023, China was repeatedly the top recipient of diverted Russian fuel. Filling gap left by Europe. Russian officials openly say these ties lock in China as a partner. The two countries, meaning Russia and China, also coordinate in BRICS. Joint statements in 2023 and 2024 called for a more multipolar financial order, and BRICS leaders have discussed new local currency payment systems. External observers warn this threatens the dollar dominance. This makes it more important than ever to protect yourself and your assets. And this leads me to talk about today's show sponsor, DeFi Technologies. This stock is outperforming Bitcoin for years. Surprising, huh? Our top crypto idea graduated to the NASDAQ, and it is the sponsor of today's video, DeFi Technologies. NASDAQ stock ticker is DEFT. When Tom Lee shared the post that hedge fund manager Eric Jackson had shared on his X account about DeFi Technologies, stock ticker DEFT, on November 19, 2024, the company had still not graduated to the Nasdaq yet. Its share price was about $2.28 compared to $3.25 mid-July. Eric Jackson of EMG Capital has written much about DeFi technologies as we have in the past. DeFi technologies outperform Bitcoin, and I'm gonna give you certain stats. One-year performance: Bitcoin was up 76%, DeFi was up 122%. Two-year performance: Bitcoin was up 238%. Now, uh, DeFi was up 3,474%. Third year performance: Bitcoin was up 339%. Nasdaq, DeFi was up 793%. Fourth year performance: Bitcoin was up 225%. DeFi was up 339%. So the question becomes, how does DeFi Technologies able to achieve this? DeFi Technologies business covers with a blanket the entire ecosystem. Its growth avenues are seemingly without any visible constraints that I can foresee right now, and the proof is in the pudding, as the saying goes. DeFiTech announced record quarterly results, and its trailing PE ratio is only 9. DeFiTech, once again, NASDAQ stock ticker is DEFT, is a profitable business that grows globally with the continuous adoption of decentralized finance and crypto assets. The crown jewels business is, in my personal opinion, one of the most predictable and recurring forms of assets management models around today. The company subsidiary Valour creates and issues ETPs, exchange traded products, for the cryptocurrency sector. At this time, image shows at the end of May 2025, Valor had about $800 million under management, and it monetizes that sum in a way that other asset managers can only dream about. Another department that is under Valor engages in staking and lending., and this helps to generate approximately 8% of AUM that is stacked or loaned. Trump is all in on crypto and blockchain, as you may know. "U.S. will be the Bitcoin superpower," Donald Trump said. The 47th President of the United States of America even named crypto czar David Sachs, whom I happen to think is a brilliant person. DeFi Technologies subsidiary Valour offers over 75% exchange-traded products covering the full spectrum of the crypto market. This is the model that makes it so profitable. The ability to provide institutions who are barred by their forming documents and prospectus from owning cryptocurrencies outright but are 100% eligible to own ETPs. Even after reporting record revenues this past quarter and even after surging more than 250% in the past year, the company still trades at a trailing PE ratio of under 10. The Trump administration has taken significant steps to reshape U.S. cryptocurrency policy, and DeFi Technologies management has taken notice and made an acquisition recently that gives it U.S. exposure while it continues on its global expansion plan. As you can see above. It's critical to understand the qualitative advantage of DeFi tech when it comes to Solana, for example. As Valor parent company, DeFi Technologies is the largest institutional asset manager of Solana in North America. DeFi Technologies earns an 8.5% yield on stacked Solana, generating up to $33 million in annualized revenue based on current asset prices, more than any other asset manager or public Solana holder globally. These numbers are a delight, to say the least. Anthony Pompliano, who is both a shareholder of DeFiTech and founded Reflexivity Research, which is another subsidiary of DeFi, and funnels revenues to its bottom line. DeFi Alpha Arbitrage Desk clears about $100 million in shareholders' gains. How many companies have you seen that launched an arbitrage, zero-risk, Trading Desk and loaded it up with incentives for traders to share the gains with shareholders. DeFi Alpha is another business department that has been a resounding success for the company. When I first learned about it, I was shocked. Then the gains started pouring in. The sums are far larger than I anticipated, and I believe even management was pleasantly surprised. Think about it this way: without the shareholders lifting a finger, the trading desk has generated about $100 million in its first year, and these funds are retained in the company's balance sheet. Since the company graduated to the Nasdaq, several analysts have begun covering it, along with those that issued reports on the company in the months leading up to that moment. By emailing the analysts, you can see how they think about all things DeFi Technology. By now you've seen that DeFi Technology's stock ticker, DEFT, is my number one crypto idea. That it has outperformed Bitcoin itself in the past 5 years. With Bitcoin trading near its all-time high, that DeFi Tech is trading at conservative multiples compared to its peers and that it is growing and owns a diversified plethora of subsidiaries. DeFi Tech, stock ticker DEFT, Digital Asset Treasury total value stood at approximately $48.4 million, 208.8 Bitcoin, $22,609,000, $31,020,000 Canadian dollars, 161 ETH, and a 400,000 $320 US or $549,239 Canadian. $1,586,000 ADA is at $907,837 US or $1,245 Canadian. $14,375 SOL at $2.2 million US or $3 million Canadian dollars. 490.5 UNI at $3,498 US or $4,800 Canadian dollars. 433,000 AVAX at $7,788,000 US or $10,686,000 Canadian, $1,925,000 CORE at $994,860 US, or $1,360,000 Canadian. And the last one is $4,913,000 SUI at $14,272,000 USD or $19,582,000 CAD. An incredible business, and the numbers speak louder than anything else. DeFi Technologies is one of only 3 profitable public crypto companies. You know who has been buying shares of DeFi Technologies in the millions of dollars? The company itself. The company has bought back 2.5 million shares in the past year alone. Founder of DeFi Tech, Olivier Roussi Newton, owns 17.9 million shares, which are worth over $50 million. As I write this. Olivier Roussi Newton has been in this industry since 2010. Olivier began his career on his laptop attending those early conferences and evolved into mining Bitcoin in the earliest dApps. From there, he raised capital in order to mine on a commercial scale. This endeavor later turned into the first-ever publicly traded Bitcoin and Ethereum miner and trades on the Nasdaq today. Olivier didn't think Bitcoin's journey was ending then, nor that it's ending or peaking with his mining business and its IPO, and he didn't think that he was too late when he formulated the concept of DeFi technologies. Stock ticker is DEFT. As a mini-BlockRock for the cryptocurrency and blockchain industry. The best way to think about the vision of the company and what shareholders of the company actually own is to understand the business lines and to realize that Olivier Roussin Newton is one of the most experienced crypto entrepreneurs on the planet right now. Always remember, there are always risks in investments and there are no guarantees of any kind. Always do your own research. Thank you.
