Closing the Strait of Hormuz? Geopolitical Trends!

This content was created by David Oualaalou. This content was uploaded by David Oualaalou. This is a YouTube livestream titled "Closing the Strait of Hormuz? Geopolitical Trends!" (published 2025-06-25). The excerpt is a single-host geopolitical analysis (host labeled SPEAKER A) with live-chat interaction (named viewers like Lee Yang, Noel, Fred Ball, Rafael, etc.). The host surveys the Iran–Israel–US confrontation and evaluates the possibility that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz — covering historical/geographic context, likely methods (undersea mines, anti-ship ballistic missiles, corvettes/submarines), regional responses (GCC states, Saudi preparedness), and great-power dynamics (US outreach to China, China’s potential role, Russia’s position). The host quotes statistics on oil and LNG transit through the strait, cites recent Iranian parliamentary moves (stopping cooperation with the IAEA), and concludes that closure is possible but unlikely unless Iran is directly militarily attacked; the stream repeatedly invites viewer feedback and channel support.
Chapters
Hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Excited to be with you as always. Uh, today I am going to be talking to you about the possibility which is still on the table for Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz. I know I mentioned this few days ago. I didn't want to get into it at that time. I was waiting on some particular information. And today I decided to do this. So this is what I'm going to be focusing in this episode here for you as part of that series of videos that I've been doing throughout the week regarding the Iran-Israel-US conflict. So, but first, let's say hi to our wonderful community. Of course, that goes without saying. Lee Yang, I notice you are the first now for the third time. You arrive on time. So good Good to see you, Noel. As always, good to see you, uh, Truth Seeker, and good morning to you as well. Amanda, as always, good to see you. Uh, Francis Tango, good to see you. YT Willie Hallman. Alice Talokin, good to see you. I haven't seen you for a while, Alice Talokin. Hope all is well. Uh, Muhammad Mazaruddin, good to see you once again. Army with Harmony, Matt Backey, as always, Matt, I will get back to you regarding your X, uh, uh, uh, message you sent me. I didn't forget about it. So, uh, Fred Ball, well, I'm gonna say thank you to you first, man. Appreciate you for that. Hey David, I'm Fred on X, which sent you a message yesterday. I take my words back about the Su-35. I think Iran should get the J-10 from China. I intend— I saw that one. I saw that one, uh, Fred. I I just didn't comment on it because I was planning on addressing that one regarding the China part. So, so I, I intend to do this one. And, uh, uh, good to see you as always. And oh yeah, here is Jim NYC, good to see you. That's someone I— that's Julius I communicate with frequently on LinkedIn. Good to see you here. So All right guys, let's cover this one here because— excuse me— and I'll be sipping, by the way, if you don't mind, I'll be sipping on hot tea that I got here, uh, with some lemon and ginger. I don't know, I'm surprised I got a— I usually don't get a cold, but it is what it is. So as I said, we are to ask the key question, and the reason, guys, why— again, because I want you to be armed with knowledge from all aspects. The conclusion is yours. The decision is yours to reach your own conclusion. I will never, under no circumstances whatsoever, influence your thinking because it won't be right of me to do so. What it will be right of me is to provide you an objective assessment. So this little analysis that I do for you is as objective as it gets, and based on my own assessments, given my, my, uh, my professional and background and being on the ground and the research that I conducted on this. So, and this one leads me to ask the key question, you know, is the idea of shutting down the Strait of Hormuz still on the table for the Iranian regime? So, and I'm not going to answer this yet till I go through some stuff, and I'll answer towards the end. And the reason about this possibility of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, so, uh, it, it's The next question, logical one, if it does, how does it intend to do so? You don't just put a gate and shut down the Strait of Hormuz. Doesn't work that way. So, and given what the dynamics that's taking place, like for example this morning, which I already post something for the community, uh, for you guys to know, Iran already, the parliament passed the legislation. Now they're gonna cut off the cooperation with the IAEA. The International Atomic Energy Agency, which is as corrupted as it gets. And that's not just them, most of the international organizations, uh, because the system is so, uh, flawed. You know, we control the system, the international one, that is certain organizations, and we corrupted them. So, so for the IAEA, which I will never forgive them for that, you know why? Because they did the wrong thing and it could trigger in addition to what the US is doing, and Israel for that matter, uh, uh, it, it could trigger a war that will be the end for us. So why will they alter the report by saying, oh, Iran has produced more uranium than agreed upon, which wasn't true? And that's why I, I never trusted the IAEA. So anyway, suffice it to say, guys, that when you think about the ongoing confrontation, and yeah, it's not settled, Despite what you hear Trump is saying, that's nonsense. The thing is, is that Israel and the US now, especially, especially Israel, they are very concerned. Netanyahu just came this morning and gave a speech, and, and the hidden message in it is that he's begging Iran to stop launching missiles because they couldn't do anything about it. So, and that is why One of the things that you could think about this escalation that did not include— makes you just wonder— is the targeting of economic facilities. The possibility is there, but makes you just wonder, did Israel— didn't attack the oil refineries for it? It did attack one particular location, but it, it's not as important as others. So especially when it comes down now to oil and gas. And this is why I want you guys to understand, Iran still hold the cards of shutting down the Strait of Hormuz. The US is saying— JD Vance, the vice president, came and said a day and a half ago, said, oh, that will be a suicide for Iran. Do you think Iran cares now what you're saying, Mr. Vance, or what the US is saying? It's because now this conflict exposed the hollowness of the US and Israel regarding these statements. We're gonna obliterate you, we're gonna do this and do that. All that is nothing but hypes. So when Iran flirted the idea of shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, that's where JD Vance came and said, oh, that will be a suicide zone. But you have to also understand the importance of the Strait of Hormuz, you know, and, uh, Uh, it was a great article by Shahir Ahmed, and I'm gonna put the link for you guys later on. So, and he tackles these aspects of it. So, and I agree with some points on it, because when you think about the Strait of Hormuz, not just for Iran but for the whole global oil market, this is why it's important. So, so I decided to do a brief geography, a brief history for you then I move into— pardon me— into my analysis about this. So let me share a picture. Oh, I saw this one quickly, because when I do live stream by myself, I can interrupt myself. So, so I want to say thank you so much to, uh, Ctes, thank you so much for your super sticker. Truly appreciate your kind support for the channel. The same goes for Noel. It goes without saying, much appreciate you, Noel, for buying me coffee in support of the channel and your super sticker. And while at it, I'm gonna once again acknowledge Fred Ball. Thank you so much for your super support, uh, Fred. So let me share pictures with you about the map of the Strait of Hormuz, then we'll go from there. So because you need to understand, so the Persian Gulf— we're not talking about, uh, the Arabian Peninsula. That's separate. So the Persian Gulf separates Iran and the Arabian Peninsula. So that is what's key for, for you to understand. It drains into the Arabian Sea by the Gulf of Oman, also known as the Sea of Oman. However, the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf are connected by the Strait of Hormuz. When you look at the map that you are looking at right there, so you look at Oman right here, I'm pointing at it, and I know you can see my cursor here, but, uh, this one and the Persian Gulf. So the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf, both of them met— meet at the Strait of Hormuz. So, and the strait is the only sea passage that allows the Persian Gulf waters to reach open waters in the Indian Ocean. The Strait of Hormuz is strategically important waterways that facilitates international trade. Now, this is what's important about the Strait of Hormuz, geographically speaking. Excuse me. So I'm going to tackle a little bit of history because you need to understand the historical transformation of the Strait of Hormuz and how it came to be. So when you think about— excuse me— when you think about the passage, the Strait of Hormuz, that is connecting the Persian Gulf as was described earlier, but it goes as far back as the 1st century, and that was during the era of Periplas, and the Eritrean Sea. The Eritrean— not today's Eritrea, that's separate— the Eritrean Sea. So there's only one discrep— one discrepancy that I found, excuse me, and is that the historians did not provide any name for the opening at that time, meaning the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Uh, when you— once again, you look at the map This opening didn't have any name to it at that time according to historical records. So, so when you think about it, from the 11th to the 17th century AD, it was one particular kingdom at that time, and the name was Ormus. O-R-M-U-S. So Ormus Kingdom was located on the Persian Gulf eastern side, which means what? On the side of Iran. So, and this is why, uh, sort of it was a conversation among historians that scholars believe that the strait may have derived its name from that of the kingdom of Ormuz from way back. And there is a reason for that. Why is this? Is because the Persian word for Hormuz. And the Persian word was Hormugh. It's H-U-R-M-U-G-H. That is where the Ormuz Kingdom at that time used the terminology. And Hormugh was translated— which, by the way, when you translate it from the Persian into English, it means date palm. So, and this is why when you think about the, the, the word in itself has been— there are certain tribes currently still use the term Hormak. They don't, they don't say the term Hormuz, they say Hormak. So, so, and the Hormuz and the Minab tribe still refer to it today as Hormak. So I just want you guys, uh, to know, uh, a specific— and I'm gonna put a link for you guys should you decide— excuse me— should you decide to read up on it later on, if you choose to do so. So let me put it in the chat box here for you. There we go. So, so when you think about Strait of Hormuz, it is geostrategically important To whom? It is important to the United States, believe it or not. This is why JD Vance went ahead with that pathetic, uh, threat of that will be suicide. Like, who the heck are you to dictate to countries? You know, that era of, of, of flexing muscles and, and bullying in that way is over. You know what you guys witnessing right now, and consider yourself lucky to be alive to witness the change in history. You are witnessing the multipolar, the, the, the world shifting from a unipolar into multipolar in real time. Yeah, I'm glad to be alive to witness this. And I even was talking about, about this to, uh, Michael, my son. I was like, do you realize how lucky you are? I know you're only 18, but do you know how lucky you are to be witnessing this? It's not going to make sense to you now, But give it about a decade or so and you start to understand. But here is the reason why certain statements— excuse me, not all— is saying that this geostrategic importance to the United States, because they are trying to say the health of the global economy depends on the flow of oil. Which is true to a degree. I mean, think about it, guys. For a country to succeed— to— I'm sorry, not succeed, but to prosper economically, what is one of the key things that needs to have? One or two? One is access to energy, and second one is a good infrastructure. So oil is no different, uh, for, for that matter. So, and this is why Pardon me, many, many analysts that have sort of always been concerned, even politicians once in a while, been concerned about the fear of an Iranian attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz because that one will threaten the global economy, you know. And there, these analysts, you know, sort of implicit assumption is that Iran could really stop the transit amounts of oil through the Strait for prolonged period of time. They're not going to do it that way, but they could. And that is where this analysis, it's going to provide you that clear answer. Liking this video so far? Don't just be a watcher, go ahead and hit the like, share, and subscribe button. And don't forget to tap the bell so you will not miss any of my videos or live streams. This way you will be supporting a channel that stands for the truth and objective reporting. The choice is yours. Thanks for your support. Now, when you think about what does analyst bear saying, of course they have to provide an additional arguments per se. And that is, is that this shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz will create a major disruption in the street, uh, the Strait of Hormuz. To them, it will be very difficult for Iran to do. And their argument, which I disagree with— and again, they're entitled to their opinion— their argument is that because of the presence of various economic political and military forces in the region? I don't think so. I think they want just to soften the blow regarding what if Iran does it, because it could. And I'm gonna get into now is to how Iran can shut down the Strait of Hormuz. So, so let's start first. I'm gonna start with the, the, the undersea mines. Those are mines. Usually those will not be floating on the surface of the water. Those will be right away in the, in the, in the seabed, way down. But what they're gonna have, they're gonna have sensors in them. Anytime a boat is passing above, they just detonate. Of course, we have technology to clear the mine under the sea, whatever, but How you going to get there? That is one of the key questions. And the reason why I'm saying how you're going to get there is because China, uh, Iran, also part of this plan, will deploy its anti-ship ballistic missiles. Now, there are those of you who said, well, they can use a submarine. A submarine, it will be very challenging to get into that narrow strait. But the anti-ship ballistic missiles which Iran had, those will be intended to sink. This is not about destroying the ship, whatever, is sinking it, straightforward. Because if they are to deploy the landmine, which to my knowledge they are already, they just not been activated. This is one of the advantages that Iran will have, and that's why I— you go back to that beginning of this live stream when I asked the question, is the possibility of shutting down the Strait of Hormuz still on the table? So then in addition to that, Iran has the anti-ship ballistic missiles. Now those are different than, than, uh, for, for their, uh, the length. I think, uh, that's where the difference between those two. So And those are easy to maneuver and easy to move around, because if there is one thing Iran has done over the years, it strengthened its navy assets. So I don't know how familiar you are with their, uh, uh, the corvette, which is an armed, uh, uh, uh, vessel with a cruise missile. Here is a picture here, guys. So that is armed with cruise missiles. So, so, and if you think that Iran is not going to deploy this, well, mistaken. So, uh, there is another one that was named after Suleiman, uh, Suleimani. I'm sorry, they named after him. So this is Iran Navy, uh, which received, uh, some sort of, uh, uh, the Shahid Suleimani class corvette. Those are being already deployed into Iranian Navy. So, and there is one of the way that Iran can do it. So, of course, are they going to do it yet? No, no decisions been made yet by the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, but the possibility is there. Of course, Iran will have to think in terms of the impact on itself, economically speaking, and this is why they're holding that card for now. We'll see how things will evolve. Iranian regime is very patient. They don't react quickly. So, and that is why some sort of, when you think about what took place, even with the Israeli attack on one particular oil facility, and this one in the South Pars gas field in Bushehr province, which is in the southern part of Iran. So, and why is this? Because Iran already targeted the Israeli energy infrastructure, which by the way we don't hear much about. And that is why it's important to understand why certain countries in the region— when you think about, you know, you think about, for example, United Arab Emirates, you think about Qatar, you think about Bahrain, Kuwait, even Saudi Arabia, whatever. This will mean a lot to them. But if it's shut down, it's going to be a big problem. This is why you have one particular country that I'm very familiar with is Saudi Arabia, when already and filled up the tankers, okay, the oil tankers, they filled them up already and have them on standby to move out in case Iran decide to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. So, and the idea that, uh, uh, for Israel to target some sort of, uh, an, an, an oil field in the southern part, uh, that to me, uh, spells trouble for Israel because Iran can really wipe out all Israel's energy infrastructure. Because they're exposed. So, and that is where this tit for tat. So for now, suffice it to say that what the Iranian Parliament agree upon, that we do have this option to shut down the Strait of Hormuz if we choose to. But of course, if, uh, the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, uh, makes the decision for that. And here is what's surprising about all this, guys. I want you to know, which by the way is not disclosed openly here in the US is that the Secretary Rovio reached out to Iran— to, I'm sorry, to China, asking China to mediate and ask Iran not to close the Strait of Hormuz. So, and that tells me right there, so the US understand the severity of this decision if Iran moves forward with it. And if the US, and which I, by the way, the US now realized that Iran does not bluff, especially after targeting Al Udeid base in Qatar, because the Iranians said, we will target US installations. And they did. This will be no different. And that's what prompted the State Department to reach out to China. The key question is, will China respond to that by asking Iran not to do it, or will China let the sheep fall where they may be. Because remember, if you are China, you will be asking yourself— and what would you be asking yourself? You'll be asking yourself, how come you, the United States, come to me to ask for help when you need it, then when we help you, you turn around and stab me in the back? Because that is exactly what we do. And that's exactly what we will do with China regardless. So in your opinion, I'm going to ask you, in your opinion, should China ask Iran not to shut down the Strait of Hormuz? Yes or no? Let me just see your answer in the chat box. Oh, Rafael, let me, let me— thank you so much, Rafael. Appreciate you, man. You put Iran will not close it. Uh, Secretary of Defense of Iran is in China now. China gonna provide them planes and latest air defense systems. China gonna take over. Good point. Interesting enough, I will be addressing this with Carl Zah on Saturday. I decided to keep this, uh, conversation with Carl Zah, but you are correct, Rafael. It's because it became clear to Iran now it's better to go with China than to go with Russia, because Russia is dragging its feet. You know, to me, in time of need, if you are my friend, okay, and let's say I am in a dire, dire, in dire situation, whatever, I need help, and you couldn't step up to help even though you call yourself a good friend, then what's the point? What's the point of that friendship? So you're absolutely correct, Rafael, and thank you for your super sticker. Let me see your answer, guys. What did you put in regarding my question? Uh, Marcian Dossier, good to see you, Marcian. You say no. Uh, Patricia, you said you will leave it open for China. Uh, Robo, you say no. Army with Harmony, you say no. The Truth Seeker, definitely no. Uh, DNA Activate, you say no. YT, China do what it's best for China, which is correct, I agree, you know. Uh, Rafael, you say the same. Uh, Jimmy Dodger, you say hell no, you know. You guys get the point. Uh, Uncle, Uncle Paulie, you say yes. Uh, Earth Extreme, you say no. Davo9b, you say no. World majority, no. So you guys got a point, and it's that— that's exactly the point. You know, US is now needing help, is going to ask for China. Once China helps, we'll turn back and stab China in the back. Because here is one thing I need you to know: don't ever for a second assume that we are not— when I say we, Washington, that is— we are not working on a plan for trouble the South China Sea. It's just the holdup right now is we didn't expect the response of Iran. This is why now all the attention and resources are directed towards this issue right now. This is why Trump is repeating the slogan, oh, the war is over, or the conflict is done, or this and that. No, no, no, no, no, no. I think I think the, the, the Trump, and which, you know, an idiot anyway, so has no clue and allow himself to be pushed into this. But both Iran and— I'm sorry, Israel and the United States realized, oh, it's too late for them because Iran now has the upper hand. You know, if Iran maintain this, it's going to come out, out of it as a winner, believe it or not. So unless one condition happens. And that condition is if the US decides to drop the bomb, or Israel for that matter, which we don't know what it means. And that is why when I woke up this morning to the information about Iran Parliament to decide to stop cooperation with the IAEA, that means there are voices inside Tehran that is now convinced We better speed up this process and be done with, because you won't hear any threat to Iran whatsoever once it declares itself a nuclear power or join the nuclear club. And that in itself will force Israel to declare, because if Israel doesn't, you know, who's going to care at that point? Just go ahead and target Israel if it crosses the line. But Israel will know better. They're not going to do that. Once Iran becomes nuclear, Israel won't be able to do it because they know what the response is going to be. The US knows what the, uh, the response is going to be regarding its 40,000 troops in the Middle East. As a matter of fact, we might not have that many left because most of them will come back home. And this begs the logical question: what are we doing there? Why are we having 40,000 troops in, in West Asia? What for? Why is Qatar allowing 10,000 troops on its soil? Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, uh, Turkey— even those who say, what, Turkey might end up challenging Israel? Well, what Turkey says versus what it does are on the opposite end of the spectrum. I won't, I won't buy what Turkey is saying. So Turkey is also— Erdogan will have to talk, uh, uh, in order to satisfy the domestic audience, no more, no less. Because if, if it matters, they would have stepped in when Gaza issue started. But at the same time, Turkey was doing business with Israel behind closed doors. So not just Turkey, you know, other countries as well. And this is why you have to think in terms of how this is going to proceed. And that begs the bigger question regarding the request from the US to China to ask Iran not to close the Strait of Hormuz? Is this means now that the winner of this conflict is China? The possibility is there. I, as of today, I am not convinced that the winner is Russia because Russia, it's almost like exposed. I will be talking to someone this afternoon at about 1500 hours in Moscow, that reached out once to ask my opinion about what's going on. So I'm gonna disclose this because, uh, what Putin is not realizing, you know, I'm sure he thinks about all the angles and so forth, but, but it's also, it's now or never. Because once the dust settles, what do you think the Iranians going to be remembering? Who stepped in and who did not. So to China, It is thinking strategically. Now, will China send some advanced systems? I don't think so. But China already made it publicly known that they support Iran. So now when you hear something publicly that way, then you're going to have to think in terms of what it means. That is the point of all this. So, and that's why the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz China could play a major role into influencing its trajectory. So now you have an individual in the Iranian Parliament Security Committee, his name is Ismail Khoasari. I have a picture of him, I read up on his background. So Muhammad Ismail Koatari, or Koatari. So now he's saying that Iran is seriously considering the closure, the closure rather, of the strategic Strait of Hormuz. So, and to me, if it comes from a member, yes, it could be just, just, just, uh, information just to sort of rattle, uh, per se the key players into all this. But suffice it to say, if it comes from a member of the security committee inside the parliament, and like I said earlier, the final decision rests with the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. He is the one who has the final say into all this. But suffice it to say that they're already moving into that direction as to what might— how this is going to impact. The rest of the world. Well, you think about 20% of the world oil crosses on a daily basis, by the way. So I remember having— excuse me— I remember having a link to, as I argued before, what if, yeah, what if this moves forward? Okay, oil prices will go up, that's for sure. We will have an issue here at the US. Why? Because 11% of our consumption depends on oil coming from through the Strait of Hormuz. And of course, the OPEC members like Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq, sort of, by the way, they all— and Iran for that matter— they all export their crude through the Strait particularly not to the US, but sending it to Asia. So, and this is where the key aspects of all this is gonna sort of materialize itself should it move that direction. So, uh, let me see one particular information that I had saved for you, if I can find it. Maybe, maybe not. Hold on a second, bear with me, guys. Oh yes, I do. So what I'm gonna do is I am gonna share it with you, except that I have to mute this one here, guys, because of the soundtrack. That belongs to Al Jazeera. And as you know, YouTube is very, very particular about this. So what I'm gonna do is the translation for you regarding what it says, to give you an idea about the importance of this particular aspect regarding the Strait of Hormuz. So, so just take a look here. Pardon me. And let me play it, then I'll, then I'll do the translation for you guys. So now the first one you're seeing here is— it says, which means is the artery of the global oil, that about 40% of the oil moves through this particular, uh, uh, uh, uh, Strait. Uh, Strait of Hormuz, about 21 million barrels of crude oil, uh, and its derivatives crosses there daily. 21% of the global consumption for oil comes through the strait. About 30 tankers crosses the strait on a daily basis. 80% of the Gulf oil— in other words, oil from the Gulf states, you know— goes through the Strait of Hormuz. 82% of this oil that crosses the strait goes to the markets in Asia, not the West, not Europe or the US, to Asia. That's where it's going, 82%. You have about 700,000 barrels of oil goes to the United States on a daily basis. 700,000 barrels of oil. About 11% of the United States imports— very that, import— comes through the Strait, uh, uh, uh, for to, to the United States. 11% of our import. You have 3.5 million barrels of oil goes to China daily that, that goes through this strait. This is why, just to let you guys know, this is why, uh, sorry. This is why the US reached out to China asking for its assistance. So, and, and once again, you all answered the question. Majority of you said no. Why should China help America when what all the US does is stab it in the back? So, so let's continue with this one here quickly. Uh, where is it? Right there. As I said, 3.5 million barrels of oil goes to China daily that crosses through the Strait. 25% of oil, uh, uh, that goes through, uh, uh, to, uh, that goes through the Strait goes to China. This is a total, you know, they give you the, the number of barrels, 3.5 million But overall, you're looking at a 25% of the oil import for China comes through the Strait. About 25% of gas, liquefied natural gas globally goes through the Strait. So 25% of global liquefied natural gas goes through the Strait of Hormuz. And the last one, I think, is about $1 trillion worth of the economic transactions on a yearly basis that crosses through the Strait of Hormuz. So So a trillion dollars that adds to the global economy on a daily basis. So, so this is what I'm going to stop sharing. There we go. So I just wanted to share that with you, uh, to put this in perspective so you'll have an understanding as to where this is going. So now, and I'm gonna leave you with this because I'm gonna stop right here, guys. The one thing that you need to understand, should Iran moves forward— and my answer to this is it is not going to shut it down. That's, that's, that's, that's the messages that I'm reading between the lines. Despite what you hear the parliament, they are thinking— they, the Iranian regime— thinking on long term. It just will not make sense for them to close it at this point because remember, this happened before. You know, the only thing that I remember, as I disclosed, uh, as I disclosed in my, uh, uh, in, in my, uh, where was— did I wrote it? Yes, in Iran book. I'm gonna share very brief, a brief excerpt from it because it makes the point for that. Here is what I wrote back then. Further, Iran direct access to the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz magnified Iraq's geostrategic vulnerabilities. One day, Saddam Hussein reasoned, Iran will exploit such geographic advantages. So, and this is why, as I continue in my argument, none of the parties involved will benefit more than Iran, given Oman's proximity to the Arabian Sea. Access to the Gulf of Aden, and of course the safe transit of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage linking the Persian Gulf to the wider Arabian Sea. Yet the most concerning aspect of the Strait of Hormuz is that Iran, should it decide to close the strait, which I do not foresee unless Iran is militarily attacked, must coordinate its effort with Oman to ensure or to secure the closure— excuse me— to secure the closure of the strait. And that is a big if. That's what I wrote back then. So, and again, my short answer as of now, things could change, you know, of course I could get it wrong, but so far what I'm seeing is that Iran will not close the Strait of almost, because they've been in some other close tensions like this before and they did not. So this will not be there. Where it will be, it's if, if it is fully attacked with ground forces and so forth, then, then at that point, Iran, we have nothing left to lose. And, and I don't see that happening now that they have tilted the balance of the outcome of the conflict and Israel is begging almost quietly Iran to stop, uh, attacking, uh, Israel. So, so this is the way I see it. All right, guys, I, I'm gonna stop right here. My throat is getting, uh, so scratchy a little bit. Once again, I want to say thank you to those who support the channel, uh, Fred Ball once again, and S once again, Noel as always, Rafael, as always. So I'm greatly appreciative to you guys. Uh, for those who wants to support the channel, uh, there's the website if you want to do it, if you want to buy me coffee there. I will be grateful to you for that. And to those who wants to support my upcoming Asia trip, this is the link to it. Uh, and yes, of course, for, uh, uh, for my books, which I highly recommend, if you could get a copy of the— I'm gonna put it in the chat box for you guys if you want to get a copy of the Eran book. It'll, it'll help you really grasp and understand. I hope you enjoy this analysis that I do for you guys, and please make sure to hit the like button and share the video with others. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, guys. Bye-bye.
More from David

Beyond the Single Actor: Why the Gulf Isn't Choosing Between the US and China

Iran, Iraq's Militias, and the Houthis Are Coordinating! This Changes Everything

Who Controls the Next Decade's Resources? Latin America and Africa's Geopolitical Crossroads

The Chokepoint Trap: How Washington's Stupidity Triggered a Cascade That Now Controls the World

Trump Spooked as IRGC Unveiled dual-use SLV, Deployed Ghadir Mini-Subs & Hinted at Tactical Nukes!





