Collective West Stepping up Air/Sea Drills in China’s Backyard? W/Carl Zha (Part 5)

All right, hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Excited to be with you once again because I know we just met at noon for our community conversation, but now is the conversation with none other than Carl Zah. I'm gonna bring him in right away because we got a lot to cover. So let me bring in Carl Zah. Hi, Carl.

Hi David, nice to meet you again.

Good to see you. By the way guys, you all know Carl just had a newborn. I know I'm gonna say congratulations on all of— on your behalf guys, but I would like for you, if possible, to write your own congratulatory, uh, words for Carl. So just type in that in the chat box and send it Those are the good vibes you're gonna send Carl. And now when his newborn grows up, they— they get— Carl's gonna show them, say, hey, look what you got from some people. So, so I appreciate you guys for doing that. All right, Carl, let's get into it. And by the way, I do want to say thank you for— I mean, having newborn, it's a big, big event, a lot of changes and so forth, but I, I truly appreciate you carving out time for us here. To, uh, hey, by the way, no, Kevin, this is Carl's second baby. It's not the first, it's second. Somebody doesn't know. So anyway, let's get into this, Carl. I'd like to get your input since you are in the region. I'm sure you've heard about how the EU now is wanted to get into some sort of a security and economic partnership with Japan and South Korea. And this is not aimed at creating partnership. This is, in my opinion, aimed at encircling China, given that some European powers' naval assets were in South China Sea recently. And I'm referring to the Netherlands here. What do you make out of all that?

Well, this is not what the Europeans really want. This is what Americans really want, you know, Washington wants to bring in all the assets of its vassal states in East— to East Asia to come from China, because United States realized that today it alone is not enough to contain China. Chinese economy in PPP terms is already larger than United States. China is the world's factory, um, you know, China manufact— China's a, a shipbuilding capability is about 50% of the whole world production, right? So U.S. Navy— whereas U.S. Navy now, they, they are going to South Korea and Japan for help for the U.S. naval buildup to contain China. This is the dire strait of the U.S. industry after 30 years of hollowing out the industrial base in United States. The Wall Street deindustrialization of America is wildly successful. So now, now they realize, okay, all the production now is in China. How are we going to contain China? So they're trying to get, uh, line— get all their ducks lined up, you know, South Korea, Japan, and as well as all its, uh, client states in Europe. Now, but, you know, Europe, what is— what, what kind of security interest does Europe have in Far East Asia? You know, for, for Europe, its primary interest is trade. Trade, and, and that is with China. But, but the EU has been infiltrated ever since its founding. You know, you— I remember back in 2000 when you, you just had this common currency, there were many articles in the US media that they were really concerned that Europe is going to be like the third pole in the world. The EU with all its economy combined together rivals that of United States. So there was real concern in Washington back then. But, uh, you know what, what Washington did is they did what they do best, which is to infiltrate, to subvert. And now they have their own women, uh, people like von der Leyen in EU. These von der Leyen, Baerbock, all these, uh, EU politicians, they have been groomed at very young age through all these Atlanticist, uh, institutions. And they've been groomed to take over. And, and, you know, we, we, we know von der Leyen does not, does not speak for the people of Europe. Uh, you know, you know, who, who's Baerbock anyway? And, and then they, they are just voice of Washington. And, and right now they're voicing full-throated support for Washington's policy to contain China. This is why we're seeing pivoting of, uh, EU naval assets in, in East Asia. They don't understand how bad the optics is to the Chinese people, because Chinese people, they, they have long memory. They still remember the time of the Opium War, of the Eight Nation Alliance, uh, during the Boxer Rebellion. And except the time have changed. Time— it's the time when, uh, British, French, or, or any European power can just sail their gunboat up the Yangtze River and bombarding coastal towns. That, that era is over. Right now they can only, uh, play as a support role to United States. What's what US want? To bolster the presence in East Asia. Um, again, a lot of it, it's symbolic because I mean, what, what EU naval asset we're talking about here? And, and, and, you know, we have, uh, Britain, right? Britain, they couldn't even handle their 2 aircraft carriers. You know, they keep on having so much problem with, with their aircraft carriers. So these, these people were expecting them to, to confront China. And even United States, US Navy has lost many personnel in South China Sea. Now this is before conflict even break out. You know, we're talking about accidents, endless of accidents. And, and, and this is a state of of the military, not just, just NATO, but, but, but US, uh, as well. So yeah, this is all because the, the people, politician in Washington has this hegemony bug on their brain. They, they think they got to do whatever it takes to defend US global hegemony everywhere in the globe. But right now, since China presents the biggest challenge to the US global hegemony, to China must be contained. This is what they have been doing. This, uh, had been moving all these pieces together to South China, East China Sea for, for many years now, ever since Hillary Clinton pioneered his, uh, her pivot to Asia. Uh, you know, pivot to Asia is not pivoting economic, uh, investment. It's, it's all about military hardware assets to Asia. Uh, but we— I— my take is that this, uh, for, for Europe, it's, it's a show of allegiance to United States, to Washington, um, you know, just to send some symbolic support. Uh, but in the, in the— on the China side of things, the China understand how this dynamic is played. That's why China has been inviting European leaders to visit China, even von der Leyen. Even von der Leyen came to China. And, and then China is, uh, is showing everybody it's open to business. That's why recently China has extended visa-free policy to many European countries. You know, now if you're citizens of Ireland, Spain, Italy, France, uh, Germany, you can go to China visa-free for 30 days. And this is, uh, this is, this, this is for people for European people have a chance to visit China, to see the China without the filters and lens of the Western media, and to realize China is not their enemy.

Yeah, now, now, uh, and I see your point, Carl, and spot on, uh, for— because the EU doesn't have any sort of security, uh, structure to even be talking about. But you and I know that the EU is nothing but an extension of NATO in a different setting and all that. But, but here is the key thing that I like to have your input on, is the idea of Japan and South Korea, including Philippines to a degree. Now, why these two countries— Australia, we know, no sovereignty whatsoever— but why those two countries that are historically Asian per se? Even Australia never wanted to be associated with Asia, which we all know this. That's their prerogative. But for Japan and South Korea, why is— knowing the history, what went through, why are they being this subservient? I am not getting it.

Well, Japan and South Korea are still militarily occupied by US military. US has tens of thousands of troops on the soils of South Korea and in Japan. And, uh, and Japanese leader traditionally, they cannot say no to United States, despite, uh, former Tokyo mayor's book, Japan Can Say No. But Japan can't really say no to United States because any Japanese leader dare to stand up to US foreign policy, they get removed very quickly. Um, and on the other hand, Japan and South Korea do have a, a fee anxiety about rise of China because Um, traditionally China has been the preeminent power in East Asia. Uh, that changed when the Europeans came a couple hundred years ago, um, uh, in the last 150 years. And then now Japan and South Korea reoriented themselves toward Washington. This is a result of World War II and then Korean War. Um, but now, now they're in a situation where their security alliance is tied with United States, but their economic future is tied with China. Uh, they have been trying to play a balance game, but overall United States have more pull because it's just by the fact that these two countries are militarily occupied and, and US has the power to remove the politicians they don't like in those countries. And, and so, so South Korea and Japan, they're walking a very delicate balance game. You know, they also understand if the war were to break out, the initial fighting, the initial stage of the fighting will probably happen in East Asia, and that means the whole neighborhood is going to be dragged in, and that's definitely not in the interest of either South Korea or Japan. On the other hand, they have to show Washington they're sufficiently loyal and subservient by going on with, uh, US prerogative because this is top priority for United States right now, do everything to contain China. So they, they need to, and, and they— Washington also needs its allies in, uh, in Asia Pacific because United— the mainland US and China are separated by the whole vast expanse of water called Pacific Ocean. You know, US had to fight the so-called tyranny of distance to all come all the way to East Asia to fight China. So he needs to have bases. He needs to have bases in Japan, in South Korea, in, uh, in, in Australia, where U.S. can, can, can launch its aircraft, its missiles, and, and it's, it's dock its ships. So without those, those bases, its network of empire, uh, you know, there's no U.S. hegemony. So, so U.S. is very protective right now of its, its, uh, its empire infrastructure in East Asia. It's, it's keep a close leash, it very keeps a very close leash on the any Japanese leaders who try to, try to go astray from the US policy on this. So, so US, so, you know, wait, Japan and South Korea, they don't have much choice.

Yeah, and, and, and the numbers, Carl, the numbers of the troops, US troops bases This one here you're looking at, it's 54,800 troops in Japan. That, that's, to me, it's alarming. South Korea has about 24,200 troops. And, uh, then you get, uh, who else? Guam, 6,600, and the rest of them is in Europe, in Germany and so forth. And that explains it. That explains it. I'm, I'm just, uh, baffled and perplexed as to Why the leaders of Japan and South Korea— Philippines, we know how Marcos Jr. is— but why they couldn't make the decision? And, and you, you well articulated that one, and it makes perfect sense. But, uh, speaking of the tyranny of the travel for the US to go all the way to Asia, there was some scenarios where, uh, simulations, if I may use the term, were conducted in Pentagon. I was aware of it a few years ago., in which the Pentagon conducted about 18 scenarios or simulations. We lost 17 out of 18 to China. So that's, to me, it's telling. When you run a simulation and you see the outcome, you should rethink. And I don't think so we are ready to fight anyway. We don't have—

this is, this is why there have been, uh, talks about US deploying tactical nuclear weapons to East Asia recently in the, uh, US national security circles because they realize they cannot win a conventional war against China. Do they have to go nuclear? Because in terms of conventional capabilities, uh, at one time, at one point, maybe 20 years ago, US still have an edge. But now Chinese land-based missiles can cover most of the eastern half of the, of the Pacific. And, and, and Chinese— now Chinese factories are— they're making those hypersonic missiles in automated factories, you know, 24/7. It's robots. Robots can work 24/7, produce those missiles. I mean, United States cannot match those kind of productive, uh, production numbers. And, and so they thought, okay, well, we, we still got nukes, we still got the advantage in nukes. That's why they think, okay, if we deploy tactical nukes, then it's not really nukes, right? It's not, not like a city buster. So, so maybe this won't escalate. But this is really dangerous, really foolish thinking, you know. When you go nuke, you're going nuclear. There's no going back, you know. Nobody's gonna care. Oh, they're gonna, they're gonna see a mushroom cloud and say, oh, judged by the size of that mushroom cloud, it's only a tactical nuclear weapon, not a strategic No, that's not how it works. When nuke landed, other country will respond, and then Armageddon from there. So right now we have some very scary and deluded, crazy people in the decision-making circles in Washington, and hopefully, uh, you know, hopefully they croak before we, before we get impacted, you know, because we have, we have Right now, you know, you have Biden who is basically walking zombie on the stage while the deep state doing its thing. And, and, and we, we're having a very closely contested election. Um, this is another thing, like a lot of the countries including China are waiting to see the result of US election. You know, whatever Biden promised now, that might not hold water a few months from now. He might not be in the office, and then you just have Trump here to renounce all the deals Biden made. So everybody just waiting to see what's going to happen after the election.

For sure. I mean, it's going to be a game changer for the fact that, at least to my knowledge, for Trump doesn't want NATO. And NATO is now talking about expanding to or going to Asia. That is, I mean, I've been aware of this trend for a few years, given the conversation that was taking place, at least back then in Washington. And, uh, you know, it was kind of like, you know, why are we going too far east to foment tensions there?

What for?

Yeah, I know Taiwan has always been the, the pressure point that we could always pressure China through, but, but things are changing, you know. The, the— whether we like it or not, the world has moved into a multipolar system, simple as that. So we're gonna have to decide how we want to either play a role in it by cooperating and moving forward, or we're going to be fomenting more tensions. And in multipolar world, you have more than one player, and we all know what it means. And I don't think so the politicians in Washington are thinking straight.

So, you know, David, there's a saying that Americans can be trusted to do the right thing. After all other options have been exhausted.

Exhausted.

So right now they're still trying every other options right now because they're desperate. They're desperate to preserve the US hegemonic status. So let's let— they're trying, they're just throwing shit on the wall and see what sticks at this point. Yeah.

Well, on, on a serious note, Carl, there is a big concern in Washington that like, hey, we losing this, our grip on the global order. Well, it's a reality. We just have to come to terms with that reality. The world is changing. The world has changed. And, and, and China, you're not going to push it back to what it was 30 or 40 years ago because that's when China moved forward. So it's a fait accompli and it's just a matter of accepting that. And I— some politicians are very sort of thick-headed because they're concerned about their welfare and their well-being instead of the welfare of the country itself. Let's pivot to— I'd like to get your take on Indonesia being part of BRICS. Of course, there are those who saying yes, it will make perfect sense to have Indonesia. First of all, you don't have to change the name of BRICS because in the I in Indonesia would be the same as the I in India. Uh, and others are saying The others who are saying, well, hold on a second, is because Indonesia itself is studying this proposal. Where do you see this going, Carl? Will it be beneficial for India to join under this kind of climate or wait?

Well, Indonesia is, is playing this game very carefully because, you know, Indonesia, it's has its own very strategic position in Southeast Asia. It's the most populous country in Southeast Asia. It's the fourth largest country by population in the world, just behind China, India, and United States. And Indonesia's economy is growing thanks to the increasing integration with the Chinese economy. So Indonesia is expecting more investment coming to China. Joining BRICS makes more perfect sense, but United States is very jealous of its own, guarding its own position in Southeast Asia. You know, you will be very wary if the largest, most populous country in Southeast Asia suddenly throwing its lot with BRICS. So, so US is also applying a lot of pressure, and, and Indonesia don't want to necessarily— Indonesia do not want to offend United States unnecessarily, right? So, so what What Indonesia is doing is again also playing a game of balance, um, because he wants to trade with— you want to maintain a relationship, open relationship with China and United States. And so, so right now, even though Indonesia is not officially in the BRICS, but it is receiving a lot of the Chinese investment into the country to develop the infrastructure Uh, so it's already enjoying a lot of the benefits of being in the, in the kind of the within the gravitational pull of the Chinese economy. Um, so joining BRICS at this point, it's, uh, uh, it's more a symbolic move, a symbolic move that might trigger United States because US government is very sensitive right now. They're very sensitive about, about BRICS multipolarity, that kind of thing. And, and so, so, so, so that's why Indonesia has adopted this kind of go-slow approach. It's, it's in, in the, in talks, is studying joining the BRICS, is hold that door open. And at the same time, it's not rushing into signing up because, uh, for the fear of offending Washington unnecessarily. Because, you know, U.S. is, is very sensitive about these, these kind of things because, because the U.S. really thinks like like, oh no, oh no, BRICS is gonna replace— it's, it's like, uh, it's gonna replace the US hegemony across the world, you know. If any country joining BRICS, uh, uh, or, or signing on with the Belt and Road Initiative, that's, that's like going— that's, you are against us, you're not with us, then you're against us. Um, so, so Indonesia is, is saying, okay, we play ball with you, uh, but let me, let me continue my trade relationship with China.

Wow. Well, it's, it's, it's— the world is changing and the US will have to change with it whether we like it or not. I mean, this country is going to move forward. And speaking of that, now while we're talking about Indonesia, now will it be the same argument you made, you just made, will it apply to Malaysia and Singapore? I just got a word, Carl, that there is a conversation inside Singapore right now about joining BRICS. The same could be made in the case of, hey, you'd be better off with having the likes of Indonesia, the likes of Thailand, the likes of Singapore. Malaysia is give or take, given the issues of corruption that exist in the country, and we all know aware of it. So, so will, will the same argument hold you just made? Will it hold in case of Singapore and Malaysia?

Singapore Prime Minister actually recently gave an address which talk about this issue. He's basically saying, hey, look, if we align ourselves with China, um, then all the Western countries will see, uh, oh, Singapore, they're going along with China because Singapore is majority ethnic Chinese. Um, and because Singapore is able to maintain its position in Southeast Asia as kind of like the majority ethnic Chinese city-state, is it, it, it survived as an entry port, um, you know, because it's, it's located at a very strategic, uh, point of Strait of Malacca where all majority of the world's shipping traffic goes through, including like most of the traffic going to and from China. And United— US Navy has made no secret that in case of war breakout with China, they're gonna— their plan is gonna cut off the, the shipping flow at the Strait of Malacca. So, so for Singapore, United States know it's a very strategic point. U.S. and Singapore has a security agreement. Um, for a long time, Singapore aligned itself with United States to, um, they saw U.S. giving them a security guarantee in Southeast Asia because Singapore, they're worried about being swallowed up by their larger neighbors like Malaysia. And, and, and, and, and, and so, so they, they, they align— United States provided that security guarantee until now, to, to the present. And they worry that they, um, you know, right now, right, China is still on the rise. Until the rise of China is, is like, until China replace United States, uh, displace United States from East Asia, which is still some time from now, right now Singapore still rely on, on United States for its security and, and also for, for, for its economy. Is now Singapore had— because Hong Kong is, um, is losing its status as kind of the, the, the window, to China. Because, you know, before, when Hong Kong was a British colony and Hong Kong was only, uh, only place that could— there was a Western capital can funnel through to do investment with China. Hong Kong was special. But now Hong Kong is, is, uh, is losing— it's, it's not that different from, um, you know, Hong Kong is losing its competitive edge to cities like Shanghai, to city like Shenzhen. Right, because those other countries' ports have opened up. But Singapore is still remain a place— this is where a lot of the capital from all around the world, but also in Southeast Asia, are going in, um, and then getting redirected, some of them too for investment in China. So, so Singapore's status, the international city, and this security agreement with United States would come under question if it align too close. It's been seen to align too closely with China. But, but if you— we see what Singapore actually do, you know, majority of the Singapore investment is in China, is in mainland China, uh, because they understand that's the economic future. But at the same time, they're still maintaining their security ties with the United States. Again, very similar dynamic with Indonesia. They want to maintain the open channel with the US. They don't want to openly defy US, um, but they, they, they just want to do business. I mean, most of the countries in Southeast Asia, they just want to be left alone to develop their own country, to, to, to develop business, to grow rich. But, but, but United States is the one that's kind of bring up, bring tension into this region. Just so they can feed back to the US industrial military-industrial complex back home. But so, so all these countries, they have to appease the United States to a certain extent, uh, because they, they, they still depend on, on US for— particularly the case of Singapore, they depend on US for security. Um, Malaysia, they are— Malaysia is actually— so a lot of people don't know, Malaysia actually do have maritime dispute with China in South China Sea. But unlike the Philippines, Malaysia has always worked with China. Malaysia has a very good relationship with China, um, and, and they, they— you rarely see Malaysia and China, uh, uh, publicize about their maritime dispute. You know, it's there, but they're not sending in ships, they're not sending military Um, meanwhile, Malaysian-Chinese, uh, China trade continues. Yeah, you know, there's a lot of— I went to Malaysia in 2019. I saw, I, on the ground, I saw a lot of Chinese investment in places like Kuala Lumpur, um, and, and Malaysia is benefiting from that. And they, they, they have— they're a little bit more vocal, um, against the US, you know, ever since, uh the Asian financial crisis in 1998, um, they— Malaysian leadership often criticized, you know, kind of the U.S., uh, like playing the global, um, global cop all across the world. And, and not another dynamic with Malaysia, Indonesia is that the majority Muslim countries, and they, they see what U.S. is doing in Gaza. We're seeing the US full-blown support for Israel. That's incredibly unpopular at this point. And according to a recent public survey, majority people in Malaysia and Indonesia, if they have to choose between China and United States, majority today would choose China. This is because— between in, uh, in Middle East.

Yeah. So, and where, where will the Philippines fall into all this, in your opinion? It's because there's also some, there's also some talks, Carl, and I've heard it. I couldn't confirm it, but I've heard it, that Philippines might also be interested in joining BRICS.

Well, you know, Philippines was interested, you know, Philippines was aligning itself with China and Russia during Duterte's Uh, yeah, and that, that, that, that era could return. I mean, uh, Bongbong Marcos is not very popular right now in the Philippines. You know, he tried to play his, uh, play tough, like he's the one standing up for, yeah, for the Philippine sovereignty, but that hasn't played very well because, um, you know, one of the things the Philippines was pushed to be the linchpin of the U.S. security, uh, in East Asia, to be the front man to confront China. The Philippines also expected US got their back. But what happened was Blinken went to Philippines and says US-Philippines security agreement covers everything including South China Sea. But then after the recent tensions flare up in the Second Thomas Shoal between the Chinese Coast Guard, the Philippine Navy, yeah, suddenly US is saying, is backtracking and say like, oh, the US-Philippine security agreement referred to the borders of the, the pre-1951, uh, Philippine borders, which would not include South China Sea. Yeah, because, you know, they, they know if they have to revoke that article, they have to go to war, you know, they have to go to war with China. And, and the US is not— US just— US is more comfortable doing proxy war like, like Ukraine, you know, let other people to fight and die for American interests. Um, and, and, and this is why right now there's a lot of to-do about nothing in the South China Sea right now, because at the end of the day, United States is not going to stand up for the Philippines. They're not gonna— they push the, the, the, the, the, the Marcos to the forefront in its, uh, crusade against China. Yeah, but when the chips are down, U.S. is like, you are on your own, man. I, I don't know, I don't know about that part, you know. Maybe, maybe, uh, maybe I'll help you on something else. And, and this is— a lot of the Filipinos are watching this. They also understand this dynamic. So this is why Marcos is not— Bongbong Marcos is not doing so good in, uh, in the public opinion poll inside the Philippines. So conceivably, you know, if, if someone like Duterte were to make a comeback in the Philippines, you know, I can see Philippines eventually come back to the fold.

Yeah, which will, will make more sense economically speaking for the Philippines. So I just, uh, don't quite understand why they doing what they doing. Uh, I want to take, uh, your, uh, uh, or rather hear your insights before we move to Europe. I want to take— I want to— I'd like to have your inputs about the recent visit of the Russian president to North Korea and Vietnam. Uh, I take specific interest in Vietnam. Of course, the North Korea, I'm, I'm very familiar. I've been following their relations between the two countries for, for 3 or 4 last decades or so. Uh, the one in Vietnam, I am very, very interested in, in, in hearing your take on it. And correct me if I'm wrong, Carl, is this has to do with reestablishment of old alliances?

So Vietnam and North Korea have a traditional tie with Russia that dates all the way back to, to Soviet Union, right? The, the Soviet Union supported both Vietnam and, uh, and Korea in their war of liberation against, against Americans. You know, during Korean War, the Soviet, uh, Air Force actually send in their own pilots to fight over the sky in North Korea in the secret air war. They, they would, um, they would paint the MiG planes in the Chinese colors And the Soviet pilots will dress in the Chinese uniform and then they will join the air war. Um, is this— there's a, there's an area around the Yalu River that was called MiG Valley. That's where a lot of the Soviet, uh, planes, uh, Air Force operated. And then the Soviet Air Force also playing a pivotal role in training, um, the first generation of the Chinese Air Force who participated in the Korean War. And in, in Vietnam War as well, Soviet Union provided a lot of the materials to Vietnam during the, the Vietnam War, or in Vietnam what they call the American War. And, and that, that, that relationship never stopped. I mean, one of the reasons North Korea had a difficult time, um, after this collapse of Soviet Union is because their economy has been integrated with the Soviet bloc. And when the Soviet economy collapsed, that's when, uh, when North Korea was not getting enough fuel, um, for, for its tractors, for its farm equipment, and it's not getting in— not able to buy grain. And this is why North Korea had that famine in the early '90s. This is, this is a basically a result of the Soviet collapse. And, and Vietnam, uh Um, they source most of their military equipment from, from Soviet Union and then Russia. Um, so, so for, so for, for example, okay, let me do one country at a time. So North Korea, they had an interest to continually work with Russia because for decades, uh, you know, North Korea was placing under intense sanction by United States through UN. And, you know, they, they call you North Korea the Hermit Kingdom, like, like North Korea wants to close itself off. No, no, North Korea is being closed off because your sanctions. And, and, and so North Korea has an interest to break out, break through that isolation. And when Russia itself has been placing under sanction, there's nothing to stop Russia and North Korea to carry on a normal relationship. And, and North Korea also has large stockpiles of conventional artillery shells, which is much needed, uh, in on the battlefield of Ukraine right now. You know, we all know the, the problem of United States to produce enough artillery shell, 155mm artillery shells for Ukraine in this war because U.S. have de-industrialized. But North Korea still maintain an industry and they still have a large stockpile of artillery shells and missiles. They, they could send to Russia. And, and that happened after the Putin visit, uh, and, and so, so these two have a, have a traditional friendship, but they also have the current geopolitical reality, uh, also make the two work together. Now Vietnam, they, they always maintain their friendly tie with, uh, Soviet Union. And in fact The, the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War happened because Vietnam decided to choose Soviet Union in after the Sino-Soviet split. Yeah, because, uh, you know, through Sino-Soviet split happened relatively early on in like late '50s, early '60s, but throughout 1960s both China and Soviet Union supported Vietnam in its war against Americans. Uh, but after Vietnam has— after the liberation of Saigon in 1975, and that's so— that's the point when Vietnam had to face a choice. They have to choose between China or Soviet Union in, uh, in the after— in the aftermath of Sino-Soviet split. Vietnam made the decision to go with Soviet Union because Soviet Union in 1975 just was much bigger power. It could provide much more material support. And that led to the deterioration of ties between China and Vietnam. That eventually led to the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War. But that— but Vietnam never, uh, you know, their, their tie with Soviet Union only became stronger after that. Um, in 1979, just before the Sino-Vietnamese War, actually Vietnam signed signed a mutual defense treaty with Soviet Union. So what that means is Vietnam's, uh, weapon systems, they all come from Soviet Union, and later, um, Russia— they come, come from Russia. Now this is important because, um, and United States understands this. This is why U.S. is, uh, is always trying to push to sell some weapon system, not only to further the interest of US military-industrial complex. But once you sell weapon to a country, you tie the country's security elite to your own interest. Because, you know, when, when, um, United States sell weapons to South, uh, South American country, for example, then these South American countries have to send their officers, their personnel, to United States to train, to learn how to operate this equipment. And this relationship builds up over time. And, and this is how US gets his fingers in, in all around the globe. And, and so Vietnam, they still, because its own, um, own industry is not at the point where it could satisfy its own security needs, so you need to buy weapons from elsewhere. And, and it has stuck with the Russian-made weapons, and this also reinforced its ties with Russia. This is, this, uh, this security needs, you know. US is also trying to push its own weapons to, to with Vietnam, but Vietnam already have a traditional supplier, uh, you know. It's, it's very expensive to maintain multiple weapon platform, you know, because the NATO platform and, and the old Soviet platform, they don't You know, it's, it's, it's a lot more— it's, you have to basically maintain, you pay double for the maintenance. Yeah, it's a lot easier to just stick with one system. So Vietnam decided to stick with the, with the, with the Russian, Russian weapon system, which has shown its effectiveness in the Korean— or in the, in the, uh, uh, in the Ukraine war. And, and I think that that will continue. And this also allowed Vietnam a certain, uh, a degree of independence, um, because, because United States is trying to loop Vietnam on its bandwagon to contain China, but that's not going to work because again, Vietnam's economy is very much tightly, uh, who is China, and Vietnam's economics, its political structure is also very similar to China, you know. I lived in, uh, Southern California in Huntington Beach for a while, you know. I still see like United States still have like those Vietnamese broadcasts, you know, to, uh, into Vietnam about like to foster regime change, to overthrow the Vietnamese government and all that because, you know, because Vietnam's communist. So, so in the meantime, United States also want Vietnam to help it to contain China. So Vietnam's like, okay, why do I need to— why, why do I need to be your, your, your, your palm, uh, your, your foot soldier? Uh, we can just continue to do business with China. And in the meantime, Vietnam's security need can be met with its relationship with Russia by purchasing those, uh, continue to source with Russian weapons. So this is what Putin's visit does, is to reinforce the traditional ties and existing ties with these two countries.

Yeah, well, certainly the West didn't like this because I just read the statement by the European chief policy, foreign policy, the idiot Borrell, the garden guy. That was now Europe is concerned about, in this case, Tunisia's relations with China, Russia, and Iran. So what the heck? Why would you care for that. So, so I see your point about Vietnam and the Russian president's visit, because to me was the Russian's visit to— a Russian president's visit to Vietnam was a strategic move. That's to me was a strategic move because he, Putin, in this case, want to put the dots on the letter as far as where the trajectory of the global order is headed. That's to me what it meant. And, uh, we in here in the West, of Of course, Washington got very concerned about this because we wanted to woo Vietnam and Cambodia to a degree because we didn't want them to get closer to China economically, but with the Russians militarily.

And for Russian side, yeah, Putin is also showing the world Russia is back as a world power. Um, you know, like they, they done that first with the Russian intervention in the Syrian war in 2015. Um, because these are all traditional allies of the Soviet Union. And but the Soviet, in many cases, in confrontation with United States, they always back down, you know, like Soviet get back down in the Cuban Missile Crisis and, and, and, and many other instances. But Putin is saying, we're not backing down this time, you know. You are sending jihadists into Syria to, to, uh, to, to unseat Assad, you know, I'm going to send the Russian Air Force in. And, and, and, and there are also, you know, traditional spheres of the, the, um, part of the influence of the Soviet bloc, um, and, and after the American withdrew after Vietnam War, so maintain a, uh, its naval base, Soviet Pacific Fleet actually had— they inherited the US naval base in Cam Ranh Bay. And, uh, and, and, and, and so, so Putin is showing the world, hey, we're back. The Russians are back. The Russians are back in Syria. Russians back in Vietnam. Russians are back in, in Korea. Now it's a multipolar world, and, and, and Russia is one of those poles.

Yeah, indeed. Uh, by the way, guys, uh, just, uh, just triggered my memory. When Carl mentioned multipolar world. Be on the lookout tomorrow for a video I'm going to release. I did a brief analysis for you about Asia and NATO and the EU and all that. Just be on the lookout for it tomorrow around 0800 hours. That's when I'm going to release it. And also prepare a question for Carl later on. So as we continue our conversation here, let's pivot to Europe, Carl, if I may. I'd like to get your take about— first of all, we start with the tariff, the European tariff on Chinese, uh, EVs, 40%, uh, the tariffs on the US, 100%, the tariffs on the Turks that they issued on Chinese for 38%. Then you have the visit of the economic minister of Germany, the, the idiot Barack, Robert Barack, whatever his name is, going to China begging for help. Where is the— this double standards? What do you make out of all this?

Europe right now is a many-headed beast, right? And EU bureaucracy, you have people like, like von der Leyen, you have Borrell, but then you have these national government, you know, they're, they're all trying to at least do something for their own business. And German business is very much depend on the the Chinese market today. You know, China is the world— has the world's largest market for automobiles, and that's where a lot of the German, uh, automaker maker makes their Deutschmark, uh, it's in China. But, but they are facing intense competition from the, the, the rolling out of Chinese EV because the, the German traditional automakers, they kind of miss the boat on the EV. They, they didn't put a lot of energy. They didn't really have their heart in it. Um, and when they saw this wider adoption of EV in China, uh, it's, it's eaten— not only eaten into the profit of the German company in China, but now it threatens their home market. And this is, this is where they kind of align, find themselves aligned with United States on the EV tariff. But you know, the company that get most affected is Tesla, because Tesla make a lot of its EVs in Shanghai Gigafactory, and those are being exported around the world. And, and, and when people read this, uh, about Chinese EV flooding the world, what they don't realize, a lot of the export numbers, Tesla export is making up for the majority of the number. It's those Teslas that are export exporting from Shanghai. So Tesla, uh, buyers in Germany, in Europe, in U.S., they're gonna see a price hike because thanks to, uh, thanks to Uncle Sam and their, their European politicians, um, with the, with this. Because the Chinese automakers, they are, their primary fight is still for the market share within China. They're exporting, but their, their export number is still small compared to their, um, production number in China. They, they're mainly focusing in, in displacing the traditional internal combustion engine cars in China right now. I think China now is almost— the new car sale in China, uh, it's almost 50% is in electric cars. Um, so this, this is one area the German automakers are suffering because a lot of their production capability in China are still making in old IC cars. And when they can't sell enough in China, they have to export. So a lot of the export driven by the EV adoption in China is actually led by a lot of the foreign joint ventures, uh, you know, including the German automakers, because they, they have to sell back. At least this is where they don't have to compete with Tesla being exported from China when there's a tariff on Tesla coming out of China so they can still export their traditional ICE cars from China back to Europe. This is how the, this is how the, the game is played about with the German automakers. Um, but you know, they're fighting. The time is not on their side. I mean, the, you know, the, the way forward is for themselves to, to adopt the innovation, uh, in the EV industry and, and to revitalize manufacturing, um, and research and development in, in Germany. But that's not happening because guess what? They're cutting themselves from Russian gas, one of the cheap energy source that Europe depends on. They just recently, uh, slap on another— for the first time, before they left the, the, the, the US— the Russian gas alone. But recently they, they, they did a first, uh, sanction on Russian LNG. Export through Europe. Um, even though it's a symbolic move, it only affects about $2 billion of trade, but this is starting a, a, a really bad precedent. I mean, Russia is already reoriented its gas export away from Europe to China. They're building the Power of Siberia 2 to China, and, and the current Russian gas export to China is through Power of Siberia 1, which takes the, the, uh, the natural gas in Central Siberia, pipe them to China, the closest market. But Power of Siberia 2, the gas field they're building it from is the Yamal gas field in the Russian Arctic, which normally would have piped the gas through Nord Stream to Germany. There's a Nord Stream shutting down Now, now the Russians are doubling the effort to build the complete Power Siberia 2. So all that gas field in the Arctic, in the Yamal Peninsula, once the Power Siberia 2 complete, it's gonna cut across all the way through Siberia and pipe into China, and no more gas for Europe. And, and so, so, so time is not on the European side if they want to, you know, they want to get on with growing with their economy. But now the problem is we have people like von der Leyen, you know, who, who— her, her actual reelection slogan is actually, I am about security, I am about the European security. And she goes to visit like a World War II bunker, like a nuclear bunker in Finland. And it's, it's— this is ridiculous, man. This is, uh, uh, he— she has to do— she has to do this to show Washington, hey, I'm your woman, I'm your spokesperson, woman. I can be relied upon. Please make me the next leader for another term. But this is not good for Europe. It's not good for the interest of either European business community or the European consumers.

I got a word few months ago, Carl, that she was hoping for the position of the Secretary General for NATO. And I was like just shaking my head. She wasn't even elected for that position. And now with the elections in Europe, we can see where things are going. As a matter of fact, there's a big concern right now in France with the far right that's gonna end up taking over. So, and rightly so. So just to go back to your point about the gas, I do remember I allocated a section in my book, in my Russia book, about exactly what you talked about., the, uh, the, uh, the transfer of gas. And I argued in it back then that Russia doesn't have to worry about the Western market anymore. Just suffice it to ship everything to Asia because Asia is becoming, uh, the central hub for the global economy, whether the West likes it or not. And, and turns out to be accurate because that's where Russia is moving, uh, into that direction. So now one last thing I want to get your take on Uh, before I'll open it for some questions here, uh, I do know the Indian Prime Minister Modi is going to visit Russia soon, of course with the dismal results of the elections. What would you make out of that trip? Why the heck would he be going to Russia for?

Um, Modi, he, he has to— well, India is playing this kind of the middleman, right? He's kind of He's one foot in the BRICS and one foot in with, uh, with, uh, alignment with it, with the Western camp. So right now he's putting his left foot forward in, uh, in Russia, because India and Russia has a, again, a traditional relationship, dates all the way back to with Soviet Union.

That's true.

You know, in the Cold War, India was closely aligned with the Soviet Union. And again, India also, it's, uh, just like Vietnam, its own— India's own industry cannot fulfill its, uh, security needs. So, so India has to source its weapons elsewhere, and its largest source for weapon platform remains Russia. India spends billions of dollars importing Russian weapon uniform. This is one of the kind of the bedrock of India Russia relationship. And this is something not even Washington can sabotage. I mean, I'm sure Washington wants India to, to, to make more purchase of Western, like NATO, NATO weapon platforms. But, uh, you know, India already have this reliable suppliers in Russia. Um, you know, you will, you will buy some Western weapons, but you will not, not make a switch like what United States wants to do. And Modi also want to, uh, probably want to shore up his international standing, you know, especially as you mentioned his lackluster election results at home. He, he, by going abroad meeting with world leader like Putin, he's also shoring up his image domestically. It's like, hey, look, Putin is meeting me, he's recognized me as a legitimate leader of India, you know, they're welcoming us in Moscow, right? It looks, it looks, uh, it looks good for newspapers back home. So this is another reason. Um, but, but, but India is never gonna— like, the United States actually gave a lot of leeway to India on its relationship with Russia, both in terms of energy, because India also sourced a lot of oil and gas from Russia, um, especially after the sanction. And, and, and it's the, the, the— because Washington still need India to contain China. So, so Washington is willing to cut India some, some slack, but it, it's also putting a lot of pressure. You know, we're seeing like the whole Canada-India, uh, diplomatic row over the assassination of Canadian citizens in, in, in Canada. And then we have, uh, um, you know, you're gonna see, you're gonna see more, um, I— this is just my, my educated guess, uh, in the coming, coming month, coming weeks when Modi goes to Russia, you're gonna see more articles in Western press about criticizing India about human rights records or, or, or, uh, uh, different ways to, to, to, to, to, to criticize India, which is not hard to do, but You're going to see more of that in the Western press. I mean, that has been a trend in the last few years.

Yeah, well, of course, when we sanctioned, threatened to sanction India back in 2018 for buying oil from Iran, because after we pulled out of the JCPOA, and at that time Modi had to bow to the US pressure. So to me, the always concern about India is really its people. And I know people inside India as of today. I do know, and they tell me the conditions, how they are. Unemployment is rampant in India. So you ask yourself, what did this Modi, uh, what does— what has he done for the country for the last 14 years? What is there to show for? And speaking of that, guys, before I forget, on Tuesday, uh, that will be July 2nd, I will have a conversation with journalist SL Kantaan. He's in India, and we're going to be having a conversation about all this one here. So, so I give you a last word, uh, uh, uh, Carl, before I turn it over to some questions. Where do you see now— it's, to me, it's a fait accompli as far as the multipolar order. Will I be wrong in using that term?

No, I mean, everyone, not just you, David, uh, John Mearsheimer, Anyone from John Mearsheimer to Joseph Borrell, they also said the Western hegemony is over. Multipolarity, multipolar world is here with us today. That's the reality. Um, and, and US is the unipolar moment after Cold War, that, that's long gone, water under the bridge.

Yeah, well, great. All right, let's guys take some questions. And once again, to those who might have joined us late, make sure please to send your congratulations to Carl for his newborn. So that will be right. I mean, I can say it on your behalf, but it would be nice if it comes from you directly to Carl. So, uh, that, that's to me, you know, at least we can do this one here. So, uh, let me— oh, I gotta plug in my computer before I will lose, uh, The— here we go. Okay, let me look at a question here from you guys and just put Q if you will be kind, so I know directly. I'll go to it right away. Uh, I, I thank Carl. We had over 1,000+ people, or even 2. So let me see here if I can, uh, see a question. This is why I like you guys to prepare questions ahead of time. And, and since I don't have a moderator here, so I'm doing it by myself. All right, let's see here. Uh, okay, one question. Come on guys, no questions from you? You have Carl here, don't miss the opportunity. But sometimes this, these things are very slow, Carl, it doesn't show up right away, so Oh, Jane Wong, I want to say— Jane Wong, rather— I want to say thank you for your Super Sticker. Yeah, it is Saturday Night Live for me, but it is morning for, uh, for Carl in, in where he is at. All right, let me see again some questions here. Uh, I don't think so, there's a question here unless I'm missing something here. Uh, Yeah, I don't see any here. Well, here is, here is question. Let's— here is question from, uh, Johannes Dama. Thank you very much for your question. Is it necessary for Indonesia to join BRICS? Indonesia just signed defense pact with India, France, Brazil, Cambodia, United Arab Emirates, and trading with China. We'll have August with Russia. Those are BRICS countries. What do you think, R?

Yeah, I mean, Indonesia is basically BRICS in everything but name at this point. I mean, it, it, it, so, but what they are concerned is by making, uh, to announce the world is by formally joining BRICS is going to trigger some nerves in Washington, you know, because is people in Washington are very sensitive nowadays about anything about multipolarity and BRICS. So, so they, they, they rather not to upset the apple cart at the moment. They're, they're, they're doing this go-slow approach, meanwhile reaping all the benefits by having all these economic relationship with the BRICS countries.

Wow, interesting. Uh, I want to say thank you here to, uh Uh, Lee Man, thank you very much for your Super Sticker, truly appreciate it. And I'm gonna look for one last question before we let Carl go. Now that there is a new baby in the picture, Carl doesn't have enough time. Here's a question for you, Carl, from Phil. Carl, do you see the China EV tariffs being used to fund the electrical grid upgrades.

Ah, I'm assuming they're talking about funds the electric grid upgrade inside United States. Come on, that's not how US works. A lot of the US electric grid is privatized anyway. I mean, like, those companies— what's US— how is US government going to incentivize them? I mean, cut them more tax breaks. I mean, give them more tax breaks, they're probably just going to use it as a stock dividend or something to, to pay back their investors. I, I, I, I don't see, um, unless something fundamentally changed in Washington, I don't see they seriously, uh, uh, invest in the infrastructure in United States because, because in U.S. it's a structural problem. It's not a It's not an issue of tactics. It's a, it's a, it's a whole, whole system, uh, needs, needs, needs change. And, and I don't see that happen anytime soon. Yeah.

And given what happened in Texas a few years ago, we got the issue with the, the grid couldn't handle, uh, when, when it gets very, very cold and a lot of people lost power. I lost power in my house at that time and I had to move the family out. I stayed in the house because I had the, this military sleeping bag. So I end up sleeping in a house with no, no heat and didn't matter for me. So, uh, one more question here from Hong Wong. As Japan sold its American bonds, I heard that China purchased some more American bonds and stopped buying gold, first time in many months. Your view on this. I didn't hear that.

I need to check. I mean, if you look at the long-term trend, yeah, I mean, I'm— I mean, at least for the past 5 years, the trend is still Japan and China are cutting back on their, on their Treasury holding. And, and it's been, uh, the, the, the lack has been made up by other countries. I don't think the there's a break from the secular trend. I mean, the, the big trend is still China will continue to reduce its treasury, uh, hold. I mean, it already went down from like $1.4 trillion to $700 billion. I mean, it's, it's, that's a huge decline. It's almost half. So I, I think it's gonna continue. Um, I mean, a short-term spike that might— it's like stocks, you know, sometimes the stocks goes up a little bit before it falls down again. It doesn't, it doesn't mean anything. I mean, yeah, it's just a blip.

Great. Last question, and this is the last one here. This is for you, Carl. Uh, congrats, Carl! What will be the nationality of the baby?

Um, so right now when the baby is born, so automatically he has dual citizenship, uh, from U.S., uh, from me, and Indonesians from his mother. Uh, we have to— when the baby is reached like from 18 to 21, he had— he has the time to decide which, because Indonesia do not recognize dual citizenship. United States tonight recognized dual citizenship. So as long as one country— like, dual citizenship only works as long as one country recognized your citizenship. So the baby, from now till he's, uh, 18, he will have maintained his dual citizenship. But once he is 18, he needs to choose one. Um, I mean, right now most people would adopt for American citizenship, but who knows what happened in 18 years. We'll see. Well, we'll have to see what happens in US.

That would be for sure. Well, Carl, I can't thank you enough, man, for really carving out time for us here. Everybody was waiting. I was like, are we gonna see Carl? I said, yeah, of course. I didn't know at that time. So I truly appreciate you, man, carving out time, and I look forward to seeing you again. And once again, congratulations on the newborn. All right, Carl, you take care, brother.

Thank you.

My pleasure, my pleasure. All right guys, I hope you find the, the conversation— because it is always informative, it is always, uh, important and insightful from Carl. I personally learn a lot each time I talk with him. This is why I found this very, very, very useful to have, uh, this conversation with Carl once a month. Look at it guys, he just had a new baby. And at the same time really carve out time, time for us. It says a lot to me. That's how respect is earned. It says a lot. I will never forget this personally. So, uh, remember to check out the, uh, analysis that I will release tomorrow for you, and I will look forward to seeing you on Monday at 12:15 for our conversation in the live stream about Bolivia. I just got some info last night And I'm glad I didn't talk about it earlier because I wanted to wait and confirm, uh, who was behind the, uh, the, the, the failed coup. So you'll be surprised to find out. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, guys.

Bye-bye.