Could Ethnic Tensions in India Lead to a Civil War?

Hi everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends. So excited to be with you to, uh, today, per se. So anyway, uh, I got an interesting topic for you because I believe the truth has to come out somehow. Somebody has to say it the way it is. Uh, we can't just pretend. And this is not about picking on a country or a leader or whatever. I mean, heck, I criticize my own government here. As a matter of fact, some have labeled me as a traitor. You believe that? Just because you're speaking the truth? You know, I don't care what they say, they're entitled to their opinion, but it shows me how close-minded they are. So So this is the topic that I'm gonna be talking to you about. It's what's going on in India. So, well, before I'll delve deep into all this, like I always like to express my sincere thanks to you all, and I'd like to give a shout out to some new channel members and supporters. I'll give a shout out to James Tan. Thank you very much for becoming a channel supporter. 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So I have an announcement to make, uh, for you, because last time I promised you that I will be working on, uh, on a— let me get my reading glasses here— uh, on a re— on a health channel. Well, guess what, guys? I just launched it yesterday. So here is the link. In the, in the chat box for you, so you can check it out. Of course, I will count on your support by subscribing to this channel. So it's nothing— there's only one video there for what I'm gonna be covering in this, in, in the health channel. So I am working right now on Destructeur, and I will be uploading new videos. I look forward to that journey with you, and I have a lot to share health-wise, so All right, let's get into our topic here. So what are we talking about today? Like I always do, I'll ask the three main— two or three main questions. And the main one, which we all have to ask: could ethnic tensions in India pave the way for a civil war? What do you guys think? So just leave me an answer on the chat box here. Second question we need to ask: why is Prime Minister Modi silent? Because to me that becomes questionable. Is the government an accomplice into this, or closing its eye on it, or whatever? So of course I'm going to provide you the facts, but I'll let you reach your own conclusion. And as I said in the video that I released this morning, that, uh, uh, I, I researched this topic. Why? Because of— is it's of a concern No more, no less. Nothing picking on India. I will do the same for any other country, be it Brazil, be it China, be it Russia, be it Philippines, Japan, you name it. You know, I don't distinguish between this and that. What's needed to be reported ought to be reported. Of course, if I confirm the information is accurate, and of course I check the sources and all that. So Then the third question we ought to ask ourselves is the state of India. What is the current state of India? Like you see in chaos, more chaos is emanating from there. More multinational corporations are leaving. And by the way, guys, be on the lookout for a video I'm gonna release soon, and it has to do with the DJI. If any of you know what a DJI is, is a drone— Chinese drone company. Which turned down a request for a purchase from, uh, India. India reached out to DJI to ask for, I think, 1.5 billion rupees in drones, and DJI said, oh, forget about it. You will be surprised to know why DJI turned down the offer. And, and I will— I also did the research on that because there are conflicting reports on it. So when I did the video, I disclosed both ends of the argument, but I have more information that I couldn't cover in just the, uh, the, uh, the recorded video. So, all right, let— I'm gonna be sharing with you some images because you need to see where everything is. The first one will be where the state of Manipur is.. And I'm not having a, uh, sort of a geographical, uh, uh, uh, narrative about it, whatever. All you need to know is that the 7 districts that are marked in blue here, those are, uh, sort of, uh, the, the, the new districts. Because remember, the government got involved, as I said in the video, the government got involved, and it has to do with tax objectives favoring one over the other. So the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi seems to really be embarking on some policies that could backfire, and I believe it will backfire. So, and this is why I decided, of course, after I got the also, uh, the, uh, the feedback from you that you guys wanted a live stream, and that's why I decided to do here. So So the idea of thinking about where the state of Manipur, uh, is headed— when I say state of Manipur, I'm referring to the whole thing of India. So you look at this picture, and I'm going to be leaving some pictures here for you because you need to see, uh, what's going on. So this one, for example, and by the way, this picture was taken on June, so This is the Indian paramilitary soldiers inspecting the site of a car bomb explosion in Ewakta. Ewakta is about 50 kilometers from, uh, uh, in, in Pal, capital of the northeastern Indian state of Manipur. So now becomes the question for us, like I said, is the state of Manipur on the verge of civil war. Why? It's because the last few weeks, in the last few weeks, you're looking at more than 250 churches. Yeah, churches in Manipur, because they are Christians, they are Muslims. Uh, India has always been mixed of, uh, I mean, I read a little bit about India. Of course, I didn't cover all its history. It's an old civilization, as I mentioned. It's, you know, you can't ignore the history of India, and it contributed to the world at some point in its history. So, so the, uh, the different, different ethnic, uh, presence within its shores has always been the norm. So now the last few weeks, what you're noticing is that more than 250 churches were sort of attacked So it begs the question, why? You know, and those churches have been torched. You look at also more than 100 people were killed. You look at more than 40,000 people displaced. With all this happening, Prime Minister Modi hasn't said a single word in public publicly, so let alone visiting the conflict-ridden region. So, but again, we're not just blaming Prime Minister Modi here. The rest of the world staying silent. And why am I saying this? I'm saying this to you because I need to remind you of the recent visit by none other than the Prime Minister Modi to not the US, it was to France. And for these reasons of why he's staying silent, and yet the European Parliament's decision sort of wondered why nothing has been done about this. Why the French president rolled the red carpet to Prime Minister Modi, you know, without saying a single word about the abuses that took place. And this, by the way, the visit of Prime Minister Modi to Paris was during July 14th. July 14th is, uh, is known in France as La Bastille Uh, uh, it's La Bastille, Jour de la Bastille, Bastille Day. It's the French independence on July 14th of France. So, and this is why, uh, what I found it very troubling is that Prime Minister Modi traveled around the world with trips to the US, with trips to Australia, to Egypt, to Japan, to Papua New Guinea, and nothing has been said. It's problematic in a sense that— that's why I asked that question earlier— is the government an accomplice into all this? So the world basically has remained silent about the unrest in Manipur, which is between— by the way, you need to understand who the parties involved— the predominantly Hindu Meitei who form a bare majority in the state, and the mostly Christian Naga and Kaki tribes. So, so that's what is the, the problem with this. So there is an organization inside India, believe it or not, it's called Hindus for Human Rights, which, based on what I found, Believe it or not, they are doing their best that they could to wake the world up to the crisis in Manipur and the broader— we're talking about the broader threat to so-called democracy in India. So if a Hindu organization is moving forward with this, how come once again the government of Prime Minister Modi And his party, BJP, hasn't done much. So because this organization, based on what I found, has led protest, and believe it or not, even here in the United States, it was during the visit of the Prime Minister to the United States, this, uh, this, uh, organization protested in front of the White House. You know, did we hear much about it? No, we didn't. So, and this is what problematic, uh, let me share again another image with you because you need to see this image here. Oh, where is it? Right there. This one has to do with the member of the Kaki tribe that cries during a sit-in protest against the killing in the northeastern home state of Manipur, which happened this way, by the way, in May. I'm going to share another picture. These are disturbing images, by the way, very, very disturbing. This image here, this is a group of women, representative The Meitei society holds torches. Yeah, they're holding torches demanding the restoration of peace in Manipur. This was taken on July, just last month. There is another image here. This are the destruction of homes. Dozens of houses are seen here vandalized and burnt following ethnic clashes and rioting in Sagnou, in the northeastern Indian state of Manipur. This was in June. So, so it is for these reasons and others that are encouraged by the European Parliament in our decision on Wednesday to urgently discuss the crisis in Manipur. This is why the no-confidence vote has to be sort of proposed in Parliament. I have my doubt it's going to work. Why? Like I mentioned earlier in the video, it's because the majority of the members are from BJP. I have my doubts they will do the right thing. So yes, it is a welcome development at a time when, uh, sort of you will expect that something will be done. But I, I have my doubt knowing how I've been watching Indian politics for, for a while now. And I remember I used to travel to the region, and I've been in Afghanistan, and I've been across the border So I'm very familiar with the mindset and the political orientation of the Indian government in New Delhi. So, so, and again, just this what highlights— it highlights the complexity of the crisis that exists. It reflects literally how complex the dynamics are at the heart of India's east— east— easternmost state. So, and just a little bit of history for you to put this in perspective. Manipur joined the Indian state back in 1949 over— get this, guys— over the objection of many Manipuris, especially in the Naga community. It has experienced secession movements, ethnic rivalries. And of course, serious human rights violations by Indian security forces and the military over since then— ever, I'm sorry, since then. So, and this is why I am, by the way, in the process of, uh, digging into more information about Kashmir issue because I need to bring that to the fore. And provide some assessments for you to understand. I have this disturbing image here I'm going to share with you. Oh, we already did this one. Here is this image here. This one here, guys, is residents in, uh, in Churachandpur take part in a silent march while carrying— those are dummy coffins, by the way— to commemorate all the tribal people who lost their lives in the ethnic clashes in Manipur in June, just a month and a half ago. Yeah, did we hear much about it? No, we didn't. It's because to me the government is staying silent over all this. By design. So that's why I said, and I don't shy away from saying, if I would have had an opportunity to meet the Prime Minister Modi, I will tell him straightforward, and I won't mince words either. And I say shame, because leadership is tested when it matters. Here is an issue, here, here is a conflict. Where is your leadership? You couldn't even take stand in condemning the violence that's taking place against minorities. So, but it will be fair to say, while the Hindu nationalism was not the original cause of Manipur's problem— let's make that clear, because we can't just be overlapping, you know. I don't do this sensational information and all. No, no, no, no, no, no. I call spade a spade. So let me just put that to rest, make it clear. So the Hindu nationalism was not the origin cause of Manipur problem, but it's certainly exacerbating things right now, given that the government is taking step back and letting the mobs, who are majority Hindu, are con— sort of committing atrocities. So the most recent wave of violence came in April, yeah, just a few months ago, after Manipur's High Court upheld, yeah, upheld BJP-led state government policy to grant Meiteis— remember who the Meiteis are, and I put this in quote— scheduled tribe, end of quote, status. So This policy basically would grant the non-tribal community constitutional rights reserved for the minority Naga and Kaki tribes, especially access to land. That's what's problematic. Naga and Kaki community leaders fiercely opposed this proposal because it was unfair and he was unjust, and argued that it would defeat the purpose of acknowledging historically marginalized groups. That's very, very problematic. So over the past 2 months, this is why you've been noticing— I'm, I'm— maybe you didn't, because most of us didn't, because that information was suppressed. As a matter of fact, I even find out that the government in India had to cut off internet access to certain parts. And this is why protests were taking place for the last few months against this policy, but have spun into a series of violence— violent, very violent attacks, reprisals, and even call for war. That's again why I use the term Is civil war on the horizon in India? So, so you got neither the, uh, BJP-led state government nor the central government for that matter has provided any, any meaningful support to the countless Manipuris caught in the violence. Yeah, that's, that's what's problematic. I have another image and I need to share with you here. This is a widow, her name is Leela Patti Devi. She's 55 years old, okay, and she's from the Mehri community. Mourns by the grave of her husband Ramesh Singh, who was killed by a mob of a tribe So I have another image here, and those are, those are, by the way guys, those are problematic, those are troubling. Here's a shopkeeper stand next to a poster criticizing the silence from the Prime Minister Modi. This was in June, a month and a half ago almost. So, so now in a response to the European Parliament's deliberation on Manipur, believe it or not, European Parliament had to mention about this. Yet I didn't understand why the prime— why, uh, President Macron had to roll out the red carpet for Modi. You know, to me it's double standard, it's hypocrisy on part of France. You saying— it's like what they said last time, uh, when he criticized, why you gotta let people protest? Been— when, when protest happened in France, he said you can protest. This is Western hypocrisy at the highest order, and that's why it's problematic. So when you have the European Parliament, okay, in response to the, uh, uh, uh, this, this violence that's going on in Manipur So the Indian government now has retained a European lobbying firm which has urged the European Parliament to discuss the matter with India before any resolution is passed. You all see what it means, because anytime a resolution is passed, usually it's agreed upon. So what the Indian government, Modi's government, Prime Minister Modi's government wants It wants to have the conversation with the European Parliament prior to vote on the resolution. B— basically what they want, and I can see what, what the government in India will want, he will want a water version of what this resolution is. So Prime Minister Modi neither wants to publicly discuss Manipur nor have European discuss it. Yeah, which is troubling. That's why, again, nothing against Prime Minister Modi, but when he's doing wrong, someone has to call it. It happens to be me in this case. There is another image here, guys. This is an armed tribe, uh, in Kaki. Keeps a watch on rival Mehdi community bunkers, you know, along the de facto front line, which dissect, by the way, the area into two ethnic zones. This was done intentionally by the Indian government in the northeastern state of Manipur. This was in June, and this was two months ago. Oh. So will it be fair to say that even during his visit, Prime Minister Modi's visit to France— I don't know, I wasn't there, so maybe he came up in a conversation, maybe not. So, so there was just speculations from the media in France that, oh, the President Emmanuel Macron will raise the matter during Modi's visit. Did they? I don't think so. I didn't read up on any on it, and I know where to look for information about all this. So, so if France is saying we promote liberté, égalité, and fraternité— those are the mottos of French Revolution— is the non-negotiable duty of every French leader. How come he was so shaky, or standing on shaky ground, when Prime Minister Modi visited and couldn't look at him in the eye and say, hey, you need to step in as leader of a country to stop the ethnic violence? So that's to me hypocrisy once again. I, I, I don't know how else to describe it. So this is how I see the, the trouble in, in how India now it's going towards. And by the way, it was even worse based on what I found when I did the research for my upcoming video, the DGI. This one's from an economic perspective. Now it makes me Now it's— I'm more convinced now. Now I understand why multinational corporations are all leaving India. Foreign direct investments is not going to India. This ethnic tensions is kind of, uh, uh, uh, uh, sort of giving a signals or hint to what lies ahead. And if I were to advise an international corporations to do business in India, it won't be right of me to convince them to do so because just I'm being paid. No, I will not sell my soul for that, because all I'm gonna advise them with is you need to understand what's on the horizon, what's coming. These tensions in Manipur, it's not going to be limited only to that region. It will expand elsewhere. And whatever you put your business, it will be impacted one way or another, let alone the infrastructure that is not there, let alone the practices of the Indian government regarding the tax manipulations, let alone other, other issues and so forth. That's basically what I will be advising the governments or, or the corporations to do if I am asked about that. So to tie this one to the no-confidence vote So basically what Modi, Prime Minister Modi that is, will now have to do is to give a detailed statement in response to the motion in the monsoon session of Parliament. Now the monsoon session in Parliament is usually from July until August. It has specific dates, based on what I— my research that I found. It starts on July 20th and he ends on August 11th, which means what, guys? It's tomorrow. Let me make sure of the date. No, it's after tomorrow. Today is the 9th. It's after tomorrow. So the motion will be sort of followed by a debate before it is put to vote, which will be expected within the next 10 days. So there is an individual by the name of Arati Jairath. He's a prominent Indian politician commentator— political, I'm sorry, political commentator— and he's saying that the government— and I put this in quotes because it's his word— may evade, end of quote, demotion by— guess what, and this is in quote, guys— by engineering enough, uh, uh, uh, ruckus to force an early end of the monsoon session. All this jargon, political jargon, it means one thing: that they're gonna manipulate the legislation. So they're gonna find ways to go behind what's ought to be. That tells me where the priorities of the Prime Minister Modi's government is. They have no intentions of stopping this violence. They have no intentions of ending this ethnic, uh, tensions in Manipur. So basically what the BJP plans to do is, because they have majority in Parliament Anytime we have that here, by the way, guys, let's not just pick on, on, on, on India. Britain has the same with its Labour and Conservative parties. The, the German Bundesliga, the, the, the French Parliament. Anytime you have majority, they're gonna have to vote with the party. Why? It's because political career matters most than serving people. That's right. We There are no leaders. If you couldn't serve the people, then what's the point? You're useless, basically, because they are in those positions to serve their own interests. This is exactly what's going to be happening. The BJP plans to fast-track this legislative action, as many as 21 new bills during the monsoon session. But the opposition's insistence on having a response from Modi could see the two parties engage in standoff. And maybe sometimes that's what you need to have, as long, as long as no violence ensues. There is no ever violence, uh, or violence is a way of resolving issues, whatever. No, no, no, no, no, I disagree with that. But they can be playing, uh, this legislative, uh, maneuvering. So the government— so what this, uh, this political commentator said, and I quote, let me get the quote here, guys: the government is on the defensive about Manipur, although what would mean defying parliamentary rules and conventions. It wouldn't be the first time the government, meaning the government of Prime Minister Modi, will have tweaked the rule book, end of quote. So the no-confidence, uh, uh, motion here, it signals a broader attempt now by the opposition parties to ramp up pressure on Modi ahead of the general elections in May 2024. You all see what's coming now. It's gonna become upon the Indian citizens. Because why, why am I bringing all this, by the way, guys? Somebody, uh, might be asking, why is David talking about India and all that? Like some said, why am I picking on, on Modi? I'm not. I'm presenting facts. I'm an analyst. I tend to see far ahead as to what lies ahead, because what lies ahead for India will not bode well on the citizens, not the government. The members of the government, they are well established. Now, you can put this under what we call the caste system or not. That's your decision, not mine. I am aware of the caste system. I'm aware of its implications on the society, and I'm aware of how it is impacting the average Indian citizen. So it's going to become upon the citizens to decide, do they want another term for the Prime Minister Modi comes May 2024? So what, what just happened last week? Last week he got 26 opposition parties announced the Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance, so saying that the future of the country, multi-party democracy, and secular foundation are at risk under Modi. And in response, the BJP called the New Alliance a group of— and I put this in quote because very interesting— self-serving corrupt dynastic parties, end of quote. And look who's saying that. Yeah, and this is why I put the title on that thumbnail, failed leader, because what do you guys think? Is the Prime Minister Modi's tenure as of today a failure for India? Just leave me some— your answer on the, on the chat box and I'll take a look at it. So, and once again, we are just talking the big picture here. Like I said earlier, as an analyst, I tend to think down the road. I don't look at now. I tend, I tend to think down the road. With the, with the geopolitical shift that's taking place, India is going to end up holding the end of the stick if it doesn't get its act together. How do you get your act together as a country or as a government? By at least, and firstly, ensuring your domestic home front is taken care of. So let me show you again that picture. Because pictures tends to have— is this one right here, guys? Yeah. So if you couldn't take care of the domestic front, how do you expect the country to move forward? I just don't see it. No. And this only about Indian citizen, the average citizen. So now with, you know, you're looking at a massive population of 1.4. Some have said sometimes is a blessing, other times is a curse. In India's case, uh, more population, more poverty is, is going up, the level of poverty. Uh, the infrastructure is not there. So it's just common sense for the business community internationally, that is, to start to think twice about ensuring any access to Indian markets. What for? And that's what I found in the research about DJI, the, the, the drone. And again, I, I saved one of part of the research that I did for the live stream, if you guys want that, because to me it was very, very, very eye-opening. And I know where to dig for the information, and I confirm the information before I come on the air. So this is where I see these problems moving forward for— in, in India. So, and that's what prompted me to come on the air and share this with you. So All right, let me see, guys, if you have one question. Uh, remember, just to, to remind you guys, make sure please to check out that health channel that I just launched yesterday. Please subscribe to that because I need to grow it quickly for me to start, uh, launching, because I'm gonna intend to do a series of— I'm, I'm working on well-structured plan to how I'm gonna deal with that channel. It's It's because health matters on a daily basis, not once a month. And this is not about exercising and— no, no, no, we're talking about— look at the video I posted there for that channel and, and, and just please spread the word about the channel because it's new. I just launched it. So, so let me see, I can answer one question because I have an interview in Washington, DC that I have to get to, uh, uh, and I like to be on time. I don't want to be late. Here. So, uh, by the way, also I'm preparing a video for you guys about Indonesia. Something big is coming with Indonesia, so just stay tuned, as we say. All right, I don't see any here, so I'm gonna, guys, check, uh, sign off rather. It's because I need to go get prepared for the interview in Washington, DC, and I'll be coming on the air also soon. So Well guys, I hope you find this video informative, and as always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time guys, bye-bye.