Delusional Modi: India Can Produce Semiconductor Chips by the End of 2025! W/Jayant Bhandari

Hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Excited to be with you once again. I know we, we met earlier in the day for my interview with Dr. Yasser Massoud, and now I have an interesting guest, a dear friend of mine, is Mr. Jayant Bhandari. Let me bring him in right away and we'll start. Hi Jayant.

Hi, good, hello David, how are you?

Good, good. It's good to see you as always. For those who do not know who Jayant is, Jayant has been an Asia-based institutional investor advisor for the last 3 years. So, uh, he is also— prior to his involvement in the investment industry, he established and managed an Indian subsidiary operations of 2 European companies. So Jayant holds a master, of Business Administration from Manchester Business School in the UK, in addition to holding a Bachelor of Engineering from SGSITS in India. So, so very, very interesting background, and he has the credentials to address whatever we're going to be talking about. So once again, very excited to have you, Jayant, and head on. I'll say thank you for carving out time for us. So Let me start with your overall assessments as to what transpired between India and Pakistan. I know it happened before. India has been defeated, in my opinion, and that's not just my opinion alone, that's the opinion of many geopolitical analysts. How do you assess it? How do you see it?

David, I see both Indians and Pakistanis as similar people, similarly dysfunctional people, similarly wretched countries. With a massive amount of poverty. They both struggle at the bottom of the GDP per capita spectrum in the world. They are both hungry, starved people. But having said that, I have to say that I am— I have slightly more respect for Pakistan than for India. Pakistan has managed its relationship with China very well. Uh, basically the last war with— in between India and Pakistan was a proxy war with China. So Pakistan has done an extremely good job of maintaining its relationship with China. And then Pakistan seems to have a better relationship with Saudi Arabia than India has. Now, despite the fact that India consumes more oil from Saudi Arabia than Pakistan does, And despite the fact that India imports 6 or 7 times more stuff from China than Pakistan does. So Pakistan has done extraordinarily well. Moreover, Munir and Sharif, the Pakistani head of the armed forces and prime minister, were in the White House a couple of days back, or maybe just yesterday. So whereas Modi refused to be invited to White House anymore. So you can see that Pakistan has improved its international profile and is doing much better than India is.

That's a good point, Jayant, and I'm glad you brought this up because I want to sort of get your opinion, your insights rather, not opinion, your insights about this recent pact between the defense one between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. And how is that, in your assessment, Jayant, is gonna impact India? Because there is no other way around it.

Um, well, this— I have no— I don't think there are much details available on this pact, uh, but this really, that does come as a surprise. What happens if there's a war between India and Pakistan, which is the only likely scenario? What happens in that case? Would Saudi Arabia participate from the side of Pakistan, uh, because India actually has no, uh, jurisdictional, uh, quarrels with Saudi Arabia. And Saudi Arabia would get dragged into it if Saudi Arabia actually has a full pact with Pakistan. Now, I do know that there are many, uh, Pakistani pilots serving in Saudi Air Force So, uh, maybe this is just a closer association. I just don't know enough details to comment on it, but it just came as a huge shock because it just— the math doesn't work very well here.

What to me was the surprising part, Jayant, was when the Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja announced about the nuclear umbrella for the Saudis. And that to me was like, okay, Are we talking about full support here for the Saudis? And what will India do in that case? Because India now will have to think twice about getting into any aggressive move against Pakistan.

Well, India already has to think not twice but 10 times before it gets into an aggressive mode with Pakistan, because you don't really need Saudi Arabian support anymore because Pakistan is fully backed by China. And this is a geopolitical suicide that India has made. If I were in an advisory role, I would have told India to sort the border problems with China. This is mostly no man's land, which doesn't really affect India at all. Just sort out the border problem, give China access to the sea because China desperately needs access to the sea., and if India had kept a good relationship with China, then India could have controlled Pakistan much better. This is just geopolitical talk. I think India should have a good relationship with Pakistan, but if it wanted to control Pakistan, it should have befriended China rather than antagonized China.

And I think that ship has already sailed. You know, there are those who we're saying— there are those who were saying, Giants, that during the SCO I was in China and even some inside China are saying, what is China— what is India dreaming of? What is India thinking about? Just all of a sudden they've been kicked out by the Americans, all of a sudden they think that China is just gonna open the door for them.

Well, uh, the, the thing is that ship has of course already sailed. Ship has not only sailed for China when it comes to China, but also the US, because China— US is now quoting Pakistan, but it seems that even Russia is now quoting Pakistan. So Pakistan has done an extraordinarily good job. So in a way, the ship has sailed. But, you know, if you redo your ways of doing things, then maybe you can bring the ship back again if you wanted to. But that needs a complete overhaul of personalities involved. And in fact, it would require an overhaul of the culture of the society involved, which is not going to happen. So yes, for all practical purposes, the ship has sailed a long way, long back. Yeah.

And that was one of the arguments I've been sort of making since the last, let's say, 5, 6 years when it became evident to me that for Modi's approach to dealing with global issues, I mean, we all know Modi's been in power since 2014, but the vision he presented about India being this regionally and internationally sort of in a strong position as a rising power turns out to be nothing but a slogan. You know, it's just bravado. Because to me, he didn't realize— and correct me if I'm wrong, Jayant— he didn't rely on a strategic policy. He didn't realize on a comprehensive sort of approach. Rather, he relied on an active religious nationalist discourse, and that is not going to cut it on the global stage. What say you to that?

Well, Modi has no interest in the global stage. He travels around the world. When he arrives, he likes to have these booby girls present a dance in front of him. Very cringy, very embarrassing to me. Even I feel secondhand cringe when I watch that. Um, but Modi has no interest in what, uh, he— how he is perceived internationally. You can see that he was almost forcing his hand on Xi Jinping when he was trying to hold Xi Jinping's hand. Now, if I, if I were in his hand, in his shoes, I would have refused to do that because remember, just 4 or 5 years back, China brutally killed many armed, uh, many soldiers on the Indian side. So there has to be a distance maintained just out of the fact that your armed people were so brutally killed by China. Now, Modi has no international vision, no strategy. His, uh, his everything is— does his demagoguery. There are elections coming, uh, in a month or 6 weeks in, in the state of Bihar, which are very crucial for, for, for the BJP. So his focus is always on elections, nothing else. It's for internal demagoguery. What happens internationally, whether you laugh at India or not, whether you chain Indians and send them back to India or not, none of those things really matter to Modi. The only thing matters is winning the next election. It's a pathological obsession with winning election and staying in power.

Wow, this leads me to sort of move into the really the theme of these discussions we are having, and this one has to do with the recent— I'm sure you are aware of it, Janet— for the recent announcements by Modi about India becoming a global hub when it comes down to chip production, literally. I mean, you know, when you look at— when I look at the— and again, by the way, the community, we're not pointing fingers here at India, whatever, we're just presenting the facts as they are. When I see the infrastructure, uh, of India, uh, giant— and, and I'm not putting down the country, I'm just presenting the facts here— and for a country that is claiming to want to have or become a global hub for chip production, I'm left to wonder, where is the infrastructure for that?

Well, David, honestly, you showed some of the better photographs of India. India is far worse than what these photographs portray to you, project to you. Also, you don't smell the water. Look at the water. This is filled of all kinds of chemicals and sewage and all kinds of diseases. You don't smell it, you don't hear the noise in these photographs. So once you are actually there, the, the perception changes quite significantly. It's 100, 500,000 million times worse than what it looks. India is a true hellhole. Now forget about India becoming a global hub for chip production. One thing that you could right away see in this photograph is the quality of water in India. I did not realize that water could be cleaner than this until I arrived, first arrived in, in the UK in, in the '90s. Now, uh, manufacturing, fabricating chips, wafers require for chip production requires a massive, massive amount of water. So, so just by that yardstick, India fails the test of doing, um, uh, chip production, and it requires ultra pure water which cannot be extracted from the water India currently has. My guess is, and I don't know for sure, that India has to probably import water for its chip production that it anticipates doing. Now, India imports 100% of its chips from— for its requirements, for everything, for analog electrical usages, which is old technology, or for, and certainly for the high technology CPU microprocessor usages. So India imports virtually everything. Now you did see a chip in the hands of Modi a few days back, which was promoted to Indians as something of a big achievement. Now that is actually a 32-bit chip, which is really 180-nanometer chip. Now put it very simply, that is the technology of the 1990s, not of the 1920s, of the current date. So that is a 30-35-year-old technology. But hey, what is the big achievement there, David Oualaaloualou? The machines are all imported, the wafers are imported by India. So everything is imported. These are automatic machines which run on their own. So what, what is the big deal of what India is doing? So now I am all for the fact that India must have its chip manufacturing. Although people should also remember that not chips, there's a whole range of chips. This is not like chips means there's some generic product. The chips that India manufactured, which was in the hands of Modi, was 180-nanometer chips, which is actually a commodity today. That's a high-cost, low-margin product. And there's nothing big deal about it. I completely agree that India should have a strategic, strategic production of its own in India. But that said, it is not going to make it a global hub, because to become a global hub, you have to be cost competitive, you have to make economic sense. This is the— this will actually have a negative contribution to the Indian economy, whatever it's going to produce. And as I said, 100% of the chips are imported by India today. Uh, so this is for now all projections in the future. And Indians really— this is, David, you must realize Indians cannot differentiate between an illusion and a fantasy and the reality. And I'm talking about even the educated ones. They think that they are all interchangeable. As a result, Modi can do demagoguery based on what he might do. As it stands today, India imports 100% of its chip requirement, even for old technology purposes, which is transformers or dishwashers, although dishwashers come from China anyway. But even for maintenance of those products, the chips get imported, 100% of those.

Yeah, I was kind of— when I saw that picture you are talking about, Unfortunately, I didn't, I didn't think about keeping it to share it with the community. And I read the article, and, and to me it was like, you know, how delusional is, is Modi, you know, given that he should— whom, whomever is advising him should understand that the, for the semiconductor ecosystem, India does not have the necessary infrastructure for something like that. So for him to say We're gonna be, uh, the global hub by the end of 2025. I'm left to just shaking my head.

Well, by the end of 2020s, in the next 5 years, the very, very, very best India can hope for is to start producing for us a very minor part of its internal requirements for old technology chips, which is 180-nanometer chips. So that is the best India can expect, which means that India will still be behind Malaysia and Vietnam in 5 years' time, even if it puts in everything. But David, always, always remember that India was doing bullet train product, setting up bullet trains 15, 20 years back. It is still 5 years into the future. Everything always is 5 into the future. And you should understand why everything is 5 into the— 5 years into the future. Because the next election cycle will have come by then. So they can do all this. This is all demagoguery, David. It makes no sense.

Yeah, that's what I'm afraid of. And I was talking to some people and I got the word that, you know, nothing confirmed, that there are start to be some voices inside India about really what did Modi delivered for since 2014. 14? What about these empty promises? Is it time for him to leave? And those are voices that started to— I don't know if this is across the entire nation or is it just in certain parts of the country. So what do you think?

Well, that voice, yeah, that voice has certainly emerged in India. Modi has not only made no contribution over the last 10 years, Modi has destroyed whatever was left of the institutions. Let me tell you a couple of things. There were still a few checks and balances between judiciary, police, executive, and the politicians until about 10 years back. Now they are all together in one big OG with mafia mixed into the cocktail. So checks and balances are all gone. There's no rule of law. Modi, uh, you know, if I lived in India and if I were talking with you, they would have filed 20 rape cases, 50 murder cases against me with, with zero evidence. And even if I were abroad, they would still do it because the next hearing would happen 6 months from now. And then the 6 months from now when the hearing happens It will only reset the date of the next hearing 2 years later. So you would rot in prison while they go through this fake cases and the judges won't do anything. The police will collect bribes, the politicians will collect bribes. So this is a horrendous system which would make Stalin salivate in my view. So, so, so that is the situation of the country. Now, here is the issue, David. The problem is not Modi. Modi is just there because he's a symptom of the underpinning culture of India, which means that Indians start getting desperate after 3, 4 years of their fantasy-based and self-deluded living. And then they want a real change because at the end of the day, your hungry stomach cannot be fooled by fantasies and delusions. So after 3 or 4 years, irrespective of the party in power, they start begging for a change. But then what change do they want? They still want to vote on the basis of their caste, class, religion, tribal basis, which means that they get what they deserve, not what they want. And India will get the— if Modi leaves, I will actually start feeling nostalgic for Modi because the next politician will be worse than Modi, unfortunately. So India is going downhill irrespective of Modi. Modi has achieved nothing. He has achieved a negative value for the country. But Indians' expectation should be based on values and principles, not on their tribalism. But unfortunately, the fountainhead of India's problem is Indians themselves who are irrational and amoral.

Wow. Well, that makes— I mean, once again, this is not about criticizing India. This is about presenting the facts because In my opinion, and looking from outside in, you know, I look at Indian people when I look at, for example, the, the images of—

this is Mumbai.

Mumbai, that I used to hear about, it's nice and all that. When you see something like this, you ask yourself, Indian citizens deserve to have a clean environment where they can live and so forth. And when I think in terms of the, uh, where the problem, in my opinion, looking from outside in is that the, uh, the, uh, successive developments that's taking place regionally and internationally, some sort of have shown, in my opinion, uh, that, that Modi's ambitions faces major complex challenges here. And that is why I think the failure of Modi, if we are to use the term foreign policy, even though Like you said one time, I remember you and I would talk, I said there is no foreign policy for India, and you're absolutely correct that this path towards the greater role that India has been sort of claiming, it's becoming more and more like an illusion, more difficult for them to achieve. And that's what led me to be thinking in terms of, you know, the Indian citizens deserve a better environment where they can thrive and succeed and improve their living conditions. But nothing has transpired since 2014. So makes you wonder where is India headed?

Well, India is more dirty, more polluted than it ever was, and it continues to get worse. Ironically, even before it started industrialization. Now there's no industrialization in the country. The country is getting deindustrialized. Manufacturing as a part of GDP is at its virtually all-time low at 12 or 13% of GDP now. It continues to fall since the World Bank has data from which is 1960 or something. Now, I think you make an erroneous statement when you said that Indians deserve clean air and clean water. Indians do not want clean air and clean water. Now, I know it comes as a shock to someone who lives a peaceful life in the West, but Indians actually prefer chaos, noise, and pollution because it keeps them engaged. If you remove these, they get into an existential crisis, and that is why these people recreate the same scene in the West when they arrive. So unfortunately, they deserve it, but And you know, it is not the government's job to do everything. Government does not exist in India anyway. It's a predatory system. But Indians are just unclean. They don't understand sanitation. They will do a lot of showing off about cleaning. So they might gang up once a year to do a video-making exercise of showing how conscious they are by copying the Western, uh, woke or Western behavior, but, uh, at the end of the day they don't care.

Wow. Well, that's, that's, that's a problematic if you have a, a citizenry that is so ill-informed and ignorant about what's going on.

Well, you, you, if you read the My Experiments with Truth of Mahatma Gandhi, you will realize that he, he says this that, uh, you know, sub-Saharan Africa is not the cleanest place on the planet, but he says that even sub-Saharan Africans are more conscious about hygiene than Indians are. And that continues to be true in my view.

Wow. Uh, I want to pick your brain on the recent summit that took place for the SCO. I'm sure you were aware of the meeting that took place in Tianjin, uh, in, in China. And, uh, What do you think India has gained out of being there attending the— I know it's a member and so forth, but how, how does it work out for India when it sees, for example, the likes of Vietnam, the likes of Cambodia, the likes of Laos, Indonesia, Malaysia, most of the other countries are moving into the, uh, different direction, even for I found out even Singapore has moved now into the production of chips in both the United States and China. So, uh, how, how do you assess it vis-à-vis—

well, uh, so, so David, India has been very badly cornered. Uh, India has now no friends left. It has— the US is completely against India. Um, Russia is less of a friend with India. And China has been an enemy for a long time. So India has zero friends left. Bangladesh is no longer a friend. Bangladesh used to be a friend until about 2 years back. Nepal, Nepalese hate India today. And so India has no friends left. India stands alone. So now imagine being in the shoes of Modi. There is an economic crisis coming for India, a massive economic crisis. Indian currency continues to fall very rapidly. So now Modi was— who was promoting this great brotherhood with Trump suddenly realized that Trump is just making proclamations which are— which make India look really bad. So now Modi is— has certainly suddenly turned around and it started showing in the Indian media that now Indians and Chinese are brothers. Now, when they were fighting a war 5 years back, and China continues to occupy land which India claims as Indian, um, this is all just crazy. And Indians were protesting all over the country, damaging their, uh, thrown, uh, their not working televisions on the street, when they are 100%— use 100% Chinese televisions. So So, but Indians can be fooled so easily. So suddenly the enemy has become brothers. But now my guess is that Xi Jinping also recognizes that Modi is a backstabber. Modi has no values. Modi will go back on his word the moment he gets a chance. So no one now gives Modi any respect. But the good thing for Modi here is that Now the Indian media is projecting as if Modi— Xi Jinping is now begging Modi to do what Modi wants Xi Jinping to do. And that, you know, sometimes it also says that Trump has now come under huge pressure from Modi. If Modi continues to disturb the USA, US dollar will crash, and those kind of things keep coming on the Indian media. So for internal demagoguery, this has worked out well. But really, David, India has been very, very, very badly cornered. And I really don't understand what will happen to India a year from now, but because India still needs to maintain its currency for its oil imports, if nothing else.

Well, you're absolutely correct, because I recall prior to me departing to China, I've already started to notice the news coming out of India already stating that Modi is going to be meeting one-on-one with Xi Jinping. It's almost like it was a foregone conclusion. And I reached out to some people I know inside China and I asked, they said there is no such thing. You know, it's almost was arguing, oh, it's a fait accompli. And back then I was thinking about really if India is sincere, then it needs to sit down with China and resolve the border issue once for all. And I had my— I have my— back then I said to myself, I doubt it India will do this because it will not want to see the likes of Bhutan, it will not like to see the like of Nepal, Bangladesh, and even to the Sri Lanka moved, uh, move up economically speaking, because China will bring in the investments, will bring in infrastructure once that border issue is resolved. What do you think? Will China— will India ever agree to resolve that issue with China?

Well, India always makes a claim that it's happy to sit in and negotiate, but at the same time it says that it's not going to give away an inch of its territory to any foreign nation. Now that doesn't add up. When you negotiate, you have to be flexible about what you are going to demarcate as the border. And India has to recognize that a lot of disputed land was a no-man's land when the British and Tibet were two entities. So India has to really accept that this is a disputed land and sit down and also realize that today the situation is so bad that China can— if China wanted to take over India, it probably needs a few days to crush everything to do with Indian Defense Forces. So India really, you know, you used a good word, bravado. It's all bravado, nothing else, because at the end of the day, India is a palace of cards. It will fall apart with just a slight push. So yeah, I'm totally with you on that. India has no standing. Even if all that land belonged to India, what are you going to do? Because you can't fight, you can't fight with China, and you need China for your future because India's hope is only to be the back office of China. Now, David, let me say something very interesting here. The whole of— if all the chip technology that India is fantasizing about comes to India, it will at very best add about 50,000 to 100,000 new jobs to the country. Now many of you, the listeners, would say, wow, 100,000 jobs for a country. Now this is at the very best situation, but the numbers are so confusing because can you imagine how many babies are born every single day in the country? 68,000. So even if all the fantasized chip manufacturing comes to India, which will actually have negative value because India cannot produce them economically, and that is why India is giving 50% capital subsidy to the manufacturing unit. 50%. So Indian government's contribution will be 50% in the capital, and they will get tax benefits. Otherwise, no one would come. So even if all that comes, it will only generate an employment for one day's worth of babies of India. India really needs to get into agriculture mass employment, which is, you know, basic labor, basic agricultural and agricultural-associated industry, to bring in jobs for hundreds of millions, literally hundreds of millions. You cannot achieve that through sending a moon mission or the mission to the, to the sun, or having supersonic, rockets or, uh, or through, uh, uneconomically manufacturing chips. It's not going to happen. Uh, India needs to be the back office of China. But here is the problem, David. It's never going to happen because to win an election in India, you have to keep this animosity with China and Pakistan. Otherwise you cannot win an election. So irrespective of which party is in power, they will go against any kind of sane agreement with Pakistan and China. So unfortunately, this is going to stay on and it will actually worsen with time.

So, so am I, am I right to say there is no hope for India?

Well, there is a hope that India will continue to fall apart. So yes, I'm using the word negatively. I'm absolutely certain India will be far worse than next year. It will be far, far worse next to next year. And 2 years from now, when you talk with me, I'll tell you that I did not expect that India would get as worse as it will have got. So India is getting worse very rapidly, David, and I feel really sad about it. But, you know, David, at the end of the day, we get what we deserve, and Indians will get what they deserve, not what they fantasize and delude themselves about.

I, uh, I had an exchange with, uh, with a dear friend of mine in Singapore, and this issue came up, and we were just exchanging ideas and talks and all that. And, and, and sort of he hit the mark when he shared with me his insights. And one of them has to do with when India called itself the Vishwaguru, you know, the world teacher, or a guru, that is. So And the comparison he provided to him was like what Sun Tzu line that says, you know, walking on your toes never gets you far, you know. And this is why for India calling itself as the rising superpower, sort of you crown yourself the way before you even build the foundation for that. And that's exactly what my dear friend has argued. And all this had to do with the statements of the foreign minister, Jaishankar. That is also— I thought the guy had some common sense, but apparently his statements are— I'm like just shaking my head when I hear him talking about India's position in the world.

Well, Jaishankar is able to speak better English than any other person in the Indian Council of Ministers, and that is his only competency. I think what he does with his family tells you more about what he thinks. His sons live— are citizens of the US, they live in the US. So clearly, uh, he— in within his household, they understand that India is not the country to hold, to expect much future from. Um, so, so yeah, yes, I'm, I'm completely with you, uh, David Oualaalou. India has no foreign policy. India has no vision, and India will continue to degrade, degrade as time goes by. Unfortunately, I would— I don't want it to happen, but there's no way. And at the end of the day, I have come myself to a place of sanity by accepting that we all deserve what we get, mostly.

Yeah, well, that's, that's a fact. That's a fact. So I want to go back to, uh, because there's one particular key point I would like to get your insights about, and it had to do with that, uh, the military conflict that took place between India and Pakistan. And of course, the whole world knows that Pakistan defeated India, and India of course will have a hard time accepting the fact that, uh, when you shut down 6 of fighter jets, that just sends the message right there. What I wanted to ask you, Giant, is about With this defeat, how do you think the possibility of this impacting the situation of Kashmir?

Well, there will be status quo. I don't think any side wants enough of a war to break up all these countries. So Pakistan and India by itself cannot win a war with each other. India is now a peer competitor, as Praveen Soni says. Praveen Soni is a great Indian analyst, military analyst. He's very, very open-minded in my view, and I quite like listening to him. But he says that Pakistan and India are now peer competitors, despite that India is 7 times or 10 times bigger than Pakistan in on many metrics. But they don't really have the capability to take over land controlled by other countries. And I don't think China wants to get involved in that because China just wants to have access to the area that it strategically needs in terms of its water supply, natural resources, and access to the sea. I don't think China cares for more than that. And moreover, I think despite the fact that China probably knows that it can take over India in no time, in a few days if not few hours, It does not want to do it because no one wants to run that massive chaos that is called India. But also, if you destabilize India, if you break this into smaller pieces, which will happen eventually anyway through the natural course of events, uh, China will have a— have to handle the refugees and other problems that will come from breaking up of India. So China doesn't want more of a situation at the border than there already exists.

Yeah, that makes sense, Giant. That makes sense. And China won't want that. So, uh, one other aspect, and I forgot to, uh, sort of bring it up at the forefront of the conversation. This one has to do with the statements of Donald Trump regarding taking back or wanting back Bagram base in Afghanistan. I laughed when I heard that. Of course, that's Trump, another delusional guy. Knowing that India has been working with, with the Taliban, with Afghanistan behind the scenes, and I was aware of this even back in the day when I was going to Afghanistan. Do you think that for India will make more sense to see the tension persist, especially when it comes down to China-Pakistan Economic Corridor? Because it benefits India in either case. Will I be wrong in this assessment?

So, so this Bagram case is a very interesting one, and one should ask why Trump is keen on the Bagram area. And my guess is that Modi very likely backstabbed Trump in terms of their Quad agreements or Quad back office discussion in which Trump probably wanted access to Indian airfields for any— for dealing with China. So India, because it did not go through its agreement, because India is spineless, India is truly a spineless country. It wants to— does not want to pick up any kind of fight with anyone. I think you should— India should belong to— it should state its principles very clearly. It does not. So it It wants to be a part of Shanghai Cooperation Agreement. At the same time, it wants to be a part of Quad agreement. It wants to be in bed with China. It wants to be in bed with Russia. It wants to be in bed with USA. None of those things work at the same time. If you want to, but Indians, because they are immoral and irrational, they, they think all these things are possible at the same time. It can be day and night at the same time. Now, Bagram facility, I think, Trump wants because it now— Trump is pissed off with India that India does not provide, uh, access to its airfield for American usages. Um, now, uh, you know, uh, so, so, uh, America wants access to that field, but yeah, India, you know, India benefits from nothing. Uh, you know, you remember during COVID there was so much talk about manufacturing moving from China to India. And I think I had conversations with you a few times those days when I clearly said this was never going to happen. This is all smoke and mirrors. None of these things is going to work out in practice, or at least in other forums I said the same thing. But this is all illusions. India never benefits from anything because it is never prepared. Luck knocks your door when you're when you are prepared for luck to enter your door. Uh, India is never prepared, and it all it does is fantasize and lives in illusionary cases, illusionary situations. So no, uh, India will not benefit from any of these things.

Well, that's why I get, I get literally perplexed when I hear some Western scholars arguing, well, India is going to be a major power that's going to be rivaling China and it will benefit the US. And I was like, wait a minute, wait a minute, where are you coming, uh, where are you coming from with this kind of assessments? Uh, just because of what's been stated through the media inside New Delhi, uh, pushing narrative that has no basis in reality.

Yeah, this, this is so stupid, really. I mean, this is, uh, childish, this is puerile, this is, uh, just brain dead in my view. And this is such naive people who should not hold the positions they hold. They have never really walked the street in India. They fly in business class, stay in 5-star hotels in Mumbai or Delhi, and that is all they understand about the country. When they spend in one day what is more than what is the per capita GDP of the country. India, in virtually every metric you can look at, compare, uh, human development, education, life expectancy, GDP per capita, and compare it with sub-Saharan Africa, and India mostly turns out worse. There's more malnutrition in India than there is in sub-Saharan Africa. Just because you are a larger country with a larger population, and just because a few drops of oil that every starving wretched Indian consumes, when you multiply it by 1.5 billion, it becomes a huge quantity. Does not mean India has any standing in the world. It is still one of the poorest countries in the world, and there's no higher order factor which tells you that India can become the next China. India actually— everyone, I mean, I believed in it that 30 years back, if you had asked me the same question, I would have said that, forget China, China will always be behind India because 30 years back Indians spoke better English, there were more English-speaking people, India was a democracy, India was better perceived by the West than China was. So India had all the ammunition 30 years back to be better than China. If India could not become better than China in 30 years, in fact, China became far, far, far, far better than India. Uh, you have to understand why that didn't work out, what, why your initial projection didn't work out. And then if it didn't work out, what makes you think it will work out in the future? So these naive Western scholars are also similarly delusional. They are, they are basing their analysis on something they don't really have a handle on.

Yeah, yeah, that's why I don't understand the giant— literally, I don't understand these statements coming out of New Delhi regarding India's capability of becoming a global hub for this microchip production by the end of the year. We're looking at about, uh, What is it, few more months, like 6, 7, 8 months?

Well, again, David, you have to— people, people have to realize that even if you become a manufacturing hub, you have to import all the machines. All these are imported machines, the wafers, the silicon wafers, the semiconductor wafers have to be imported because that is another level of technology that India does not have. And this technology goes out of shape very rapidly. India today, at the very best, 5 years from now will be producing 180-nanometer chips when the current technology is at 2-nanochips. So India is going to be producing 1990-level kind of technology, but using all imported equipment.

Anyone can—

if you throw in money at a dead elephant, it will come alive. But so India cannot become a manufacturing hub because it does not have the key ingredients to develop the technology. And Indian technology will go out of date very quickly because new technology emerges in Netherlands, Taiwan, the US, and the rest of the world. So in, you know, this is just a fantasy. It means absolutely nothing.

You're absolutely correct. I was aware of the recent development of, uh, by Huawei, uh, of the microchip. They developed one that now they don't need Nvidia anymore. You know, that just tells me how rapid these developments of the microchip industry is. And apparently with China having the infrastructure for something like this, there is no comparison for where India is coming from regarding this. So I want to ask you one last question before I let you go, Jayant, and this one has to do with the idea— this is more on a bigger picture. On the larger geopolitical security aspects of it. With the United States strategy of trying— of now pushing on encircling China, because that was the whole objective of it, because we're going to be reactivating an old base in Philippines, Subic Bay. That's an old base that was back in the '70s. It's going to be reactivated. Uh, my question to you, Giant, do you foresee because India is part of Quad. Do you think India will be pushed into playing a role in that encirclement, even behind the scenes?

Well, India is such a sheepish, spineless country that it— there's no role that it can have. You know, when you think about Indian officers, politicians sitting in an international meeting And I think that's how Xi Jinping and Trump perceive India. You see, uh, you know, jellyfish, something slimy sitting there which has no spine, um, because they don't really have a point of view that they can honor or stick to. So, um, no, India unfortunately neither belongs to an Indian-US camp nor to Chinese camp. Neither can India be smart enough as Singapore is to stay, um, sort of independent of the two countries, which is what, you know, Singapore does it fabulously well. It manages an extremely good relationship with the US and China at the same time, and it probably hosts armed vehicles of both the countries at the same time. It's just mind-boggling how sane and rational Singapore can be. I think India can carve out a similar situation when it says that, hey, my request to have a good relationship with China, but I want to still want to be very nice to the US because US is a lovely, wonderful country. In fact, China is a lovely, wonderful country. And I think, uh, you know, uh, David, I just published on Lou Rockwell a big, long, long article on China, uh, and, and I explained in that article where I put China in the spectrum of international affairs. I think Americans are extremely generous and compassionate people. They want China to do well. And I think a lot of progress that China has achieved is because of American contribution. But at the same time, American bureaucrats have this competitive approach, and American bureaucrats and media propagandize Americans into thinking that China is this evil power. Now China is no more of an evil power than 99% of the world is. China is actually a very sane country. You have recently been in China. I was just in China. I'm going back to China next week. You know, I feel extremely free and safe in China. Now China is not a perfect country, but do you need to encircle a country which has actually, uh, which is probably the most peaceful country of its size in the world? I mean, imagine that China did not even take over Macau when Macau was offered by Portugal to be returned back to China. China said, no, wait on, wait, sit on it. It went through a negotiating process with the UK to take back Hong Kong when China actually could have just said, hey, we are not negotiating, it was leased property, we just want it back when 99 years were up. So China is a very sane, rule-of-the-law country. I think Western governments, uh, should be pressurized by their people to look at China in a better light. But better still, I think more Westerners should visit China to understand for themselves how good that place is.

Yeah, well, I agree with you, Giant. I, I was just there. The last thing I ever thought about or worried about is safety. I didn't have to worry about that, and I went out in the different times of the day sometimes late, sometimes even 2 o'clock in the morning, no issues whatsoever. And what also surprised me the most was, man, the infrastructure, the infrastructure. I took a high-speed train between Beijing and Shanghai. It took me 4 hours. I was in Beijing from Shanghai. Incredible, incredible. When you see this rail system that exists within China, And you see why people are so happy, you know, because they're happy they have— don't have to worry about how I'm gonna get there. And it's affordable. I look at even the technology aspects of it. I went to DJI store just to see the prices, and half of what it costs here. So, and this is again—

and, and the railway stations are better than the best airports you can imagine.

Oh, they are.

Railway stations are so clean, nice, and You can get all kinds of food at a reasonably good price and fresh food, not fried, rotten, stale food.

You're absolutely correct. And I watch this one, sir. Just to go back to that last point you mentioned about most Westerners need to visit, and I agree with you. I look at just the recent US Congress delegation that went to China. And you know, they went to China against the wishes of Donald Trump. And it tells me the story right there as to how much we need to cooperate with China instead of antagonizing them. So, and that's to me the point is you wish India could learn from such an approach.

Yeah, you should never use India when you're talking about those things because India can never learn. India will just backstab you. It's a country without moral values and without rationality. It has no spine. So forget India. But I really think, and I'm, I love the US and unlike you, I actually continue to like Trump. But, you know, I love, absolutely love the US. I love this liberty-minded approach that Americans have, the innovativeness and creativity of Americans and the focus on growth that Chinese have. And I, I really, really think that these two countries should actually find a way to work together rather than fight with each other. And I think a lot of mistakes belong to the bureaucrats and politicians of America. And despite the fact that Trump— I like Trump— when Trump said that recently, said that China is an evil dark power or something something to that effect recently. It, it just makes no sense. China is not a dark evil power. China is, you know, it's run by engineers. It has its limitations maybe, and those limitations will surface two decades from now. But China is doing a lot of good things, and for me, it is one of the better governments than, than are in anywhere else in the world.

Yeah. Well, I agree with you. I agree with you on that aspect. And this is to me the beauty of having a conversation with you. Sometimes you and I, we agree to disagree in a civil setting, and I admire that one about you. So, but you're absolutely correct. It's the idea of where the Chinese system is in comparison to ours. And as a matter of fact, there is now a conversation. I had some conversation with some people in the know here inside the US, that now the conversation is moving into the arguments about the system in itself here in the US. Why is it not sort of, uh, going at pace with the developments that the world is experiencing vis-à-vis the Chinese? That's it.

See, see, the thing is that China is, uh, is— it matters. China produces is the manufacturing powerhouse of the world. Everything you refuse to send to China, China develops those things in-house. As you rightly said about the chips, they can develop the technology in-house. So, uh, unfortunately, you can't really use bravado in front of China. You can suppress India and other non-entities by using bravado, but China is a country to be negotiated with and talked with rather than, um, rather than be tyrannized. China is not— has put itself in shoes that are very strong. So I think if eventually US has to work with China, it can't fight with China for sure.

One last thing I want to get your take on, uh, giant, and it's important regarding ASEAN. Uh, you know, you're hearing less and less about the sort of the cooperation between some ASEAN countries and India. Is this a hint for what lies ahead moving forward? Could it be a way for them sending the message that maybe it's time for you to leave?

Oh, I did not even know that India was a part of ASEAN. Maybe my memory is malfunctioning right now.

No, no, no, no, no. This is just the cooperation.

There's no cooperation. India does not cooperate with anyone, uh, David Oualaalou. Indian approach is that we will see what is best for us, and if we get into a contract and if something turns— if we can benefit by breaking the contract, we will break the contract. So that's the Indian approach. So unfortunately, at the end of the day, you know, the only reason I think Singapore, uh, is quotes India, Dubai quotes India— quotes means having a relationship with India and says nice things about India— is because a lot of Indian money escapes to Singapore and Dubai. So some of the countries make a public show of being nice to India, but no one really trusts and likes India at the end of the day. So no, there's no cooperation ever with India. India refuses to be a part of any organization, and it calls itself euphemistically non-aligned country. But, you know, stay non-aligned. You know, Singapore is non-aligned. Just be friends and work with other people properly. India can't even work with other people properly.

Wow, wow, wow, what a fascinating conversation, Jayant. Thank you so much for sharing your insights. I'm gonna put the link for you, for the community, for Giant's website. Make sure you take a look at it. Giant, you know, I saw some interviews Giant have on his blog there, very, very interesting guests he had and very interesting topics that you will learn from a lot. So on behalf of the entire community, Giant, I want to say thank you once again for carving out time for us. You are a dear friend and I always learn from you, man. When you come here, I always come out with something. So I want to thank you for that.

Thank you for the opportunity, David.

My pleasure, my pleasure. So you take care and I'll see you next time. Cheers.

Thanks a lot.

All right guys, hope you all enjoyed listening to Jayant. He's a wealth of information and I always am excited when he is coming here. Uh, remember, I just want to let you know about I'm working on two key topics for you, one of them from Latin America and the other from the Middle East. If I get to it, uh, I'm, I'm waiting on some information. If it gets to me within next 2 hours, then I'll do live stream for you tomorrow. If not, I'm gonna have to keep it till Monday. And in case don't do it, I wish you a safe weekend and I look forward to seeing you next time. As always, remember geopolitics impact your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, bye-bye.