Egypt Ditching the US as it Conducts its First Joint Military Drills w/China? Geopolitical Trends

Hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Excited to be with you as always. Hope your day, your evening, your, your afternoon, whatever part of the world you're in, it's going well. So anyway, excited to be with you, uh, I have an interesting topic I want to provide you my analysis about This one has to do with Egypt and China conducting the military drills. It's not about the military drills. I'm not gonna focus too much on that. What I'm gonna focus on is the strategic message regarding this kind of drills, because when you consider this is the first time this sort of military joint training exercise between China and Egypt took place. So this is what I'm gonna be providing you my insights about. First, let me say hi to our wonderful community. Let me get my glasses because the writing is so small I can hardly ever see. So, all right, let me see who is here. Uh, I'm gonna start with Leanne, good to see you. Noel, thank you so much for your super sticker. Noel, truly appreciate you. Noel is an avid supporter of the channel, has always been, so greatly appreciate it. Uh, Willie Holman, good to see you. History Discoverer, Your consistency is on point. You're most welcome. Thank you. Uh, Hanging G, as always, good evening to you as well, sir. Truth Seeker, SK Wong, I haven't seen you for a while. I hope all is well, and I'm glad you are able to make it live with us here. So good to see you, Amanda. As always, good to see you. Good morning, everyone. I made it in time to class. This is an interesting— Amanda, you know why? When I used to teach, I had a rule for the students, and the rule was I will not let you in class if you go beyond 5 minutes. In other words, if the class starts at 10, I'll give you till about 10:05, but if you show up at 10:06, I won't let you in. And of course, the student didn't like it first, but it was about helping them understand the being prompt for their own good. So, and some of them came to appreciate it. So, so good to see you as always. Laval, good to see you. Creo, as always, the traveler. Alistar, good to see you. Uh, hey brothers, good to see you, and I'm glad you are here live also. So, and I understand guys, some of you with your work schedule, your, uh, time zone and so forth, and No, no, no worries, no worries at all. So, all right, let me first start by some housekeeping stuff here, then I'll dive into my conversation here. I don't have headlines for you today, guys. Uh, be on the lookout. I'm gonna now, uh, be preparing an interview with the giant Bahandari. He's been an avid, uh, guest here. He's always here on the channel, so I reached out to him and we are working out the, the details regarding the dates and the time. Also, uh, I'm gonna be reaching out to Carl Zah to figure out whether we do the live stream, the monthly conversation, whether we do it this weekend or the upcoming week, the following weekend, next week, that is. The second thing I want to share with you is has to do with the survey that some of you participated in, and I am very grateful that you did, in which I asked you a question: will Iran dismantle its nuclear and missile programs to avoid war? Well, here is the, the, the outcome of the survey. 89% of you say no, 5% say yes, and 7% say don't know. I think, my opinion, and I am with the camp that said no, because it will be a strategic mistake if Iran dismantles everything. It will be the same outcome Libya experienced. So, and, uh, that would not be— that would be— that would be a big mistake, strategic mistake for Iran. Even I don't feel they're gonna do that. And speaking of Iran, while I'm thinking about it, last time I forgot to share with you, uh, this one here. You guys not gonna know who this guy is. This— his name is Asif William Rahman. Uh, he is a former CIA employee. Who pled guilty to leaking files, uh, on the Israeli-Iran strike. And this was about last year. Of course, media has to stay quiet about it. This kind of stuff don't make it to the outside world or public knowledge till later on. So, and, uh, he leaked sort of secret documents about Israel's plan to strike Iran last year. That was last year. Uh, so he is— I think he was arrested in Asia, somewhere in Asia. So he's, uh, he will be sentenced on May 15th, and the possibility of about 10 years in prison. That's what it's going to be. Anyway, I just thought about— I forgot to share this with you last time. So, all right, let's get into our conversation. What we gonna be talking about here? And I give credit, by the way, to the Egyptian military for this picture here, because that's their picture. And what you're looking at is the joint military forces between China and Egypt. And this has to do with the military exercises. So, so the question that I am asking, and of course, I— the purpose of the question is to provoke thoughts. It's to help stimulate the conversation. And I put even a title, Is Egypt Ditching the US as It Conducts Its First Joint Military Drills with China? I know some of you said, no, Dr. O, that can't be. I said the same thing few years ago about Malaysia, either Malaysia or Indonesia, that will be dumping the US dollar. And of course I get this comment You don't know what you're talking about. And here it is, now that China has launched now the equivalency of SWIFT, and guess what? Indonesia and Malaysia are taking part of it. That means Indonesia and Malaysia is not going to be using the dollar. The same arguments I'm making here. I'm not saying that's going to happen tomorrow. If you understand the relationship between Egypt and the United States, and I'm, I'm gonna share with you some excerpts from some of my previous writings, including the book that I wrote, uh, about the Middle East, and I focused on Egypt on this. This way I'll put things in perspective for you. So because when you look at it, uh, this, uh, what's called the Eagles Civilization— Eagles of Civilization 2025 exercises— the term in itself If you translate it to Arabic, to those who speak Arabic, it translates to "Nusur al-Hadara." That's, to me, is very subtle, very measured choice of name for the exercises. "Nusur" and "Nasr" meaning the eagle. That's a signal of power and so forth. But when you put the term civilization, you are referring to two old civilizations. The Egyptians and the Chinese. Of course, some will say, oh, this is just a word choice. No, no, no, no, no, no, no. There is more than meet the eye regarding this title, in my opinion. So, so here's the thing, that now the Egyptian military sort of has taken this major step. This is a major and strategic step to strengthen its ties with China. So why? It's because now the two countries In addition to Egypt being, uh, also a member of BRICS. And remember who, who, uh, paved the way for Egypt to become a member of BRICS. So now this is on a, a different level. We're talking about a historic joint military drill aims raising tensions in the region. But it goes beyond that. It's a strategic move. So, because once again, to me, this unprecedented move, uh, marks a significant shift in Egypt's strategic alliance. That, that, that's to me as a geopolitical analyst, that's how I read it, because now this one raises questions about the future of its relationship, meaning Egypt with the United States and some of the Western, uh, uh, countries. So, and that is why I wanted to sort of in this video explore and provide, uh, uh, and provide you my own analysis about how this is moving forward. So, uh, please, if this is— if this is your first time, uh, joining our channel here and our community, please don't be just a watcher or viewer. Please make sure to hit the like and share and the subscribe button. I will greatly appreciate And now don't forget to hit the bell, so this way you won't miss any video I upload or any live stream I do. And thank you for your support. So the choice is yours, and I'm very, very grateful to you. So here is a link, uh, for the channel in case— I'm gonna share it in a screen name in the chat box here with you guys. All right, now Uh, of course, the joint exercises started from April 16th, and it goes all the way to the beginning of May. That tells me it's more than just one-day or two-day exercises. Second thing you need to understand about this is the location. The location remains undisclosed. Of course, we Americans, we will be able to see through the satellites and so forth, but the fact that the Egyptians didn't come forward with disclosing the location, that tells me also another message over, over why the timing. Uh, it's not a coincidence. It's not a coincidence because when you consider that Egypt's interest in sort of, uh, purchasing the J-10 fighter jets— I have pictures here, guys, I'm gonna be sharing with you Uh, and I give this to the PLA, the Chinese military. That's their picture, so I give credit. This is the J-10C. So why is this important? It's because we, the Americans, are dragging our feet as far as providing spare parts for F-16s to the Egyptians, which, as you know, F-16s almost is a relic of the past. And this is why the Egyptians are thinking about it in terms of a potential addition to their Air Force. This is why you need to understand the implication and significance of these drills. These drills, it's not about maritime rescue against, uh, uh, sort of, uh, uh, what you call them, I draw a blank on this, uh, pirates. No, no, no, no, no. This is an Air Force drills. We looking at the deployment of fighter jets. We're looking at the deployments of new radars. As a matter of fact, the Chinese have deployed a new radar systems in this training exercises. So, and to me personally, this sort of exercises could reshape the geopolitical landscape in West Asia. Mike, my word on it, because there's one thing you need to also understand is that the Chinese weapons have now been sort of, uh, almost the dominant in Africa, the entire continent. It surpassed that of Russia. Russia used to be the main supplier. Russia still a supplier of weapons in Africa, but now Chinese are taking over. So, and to those, of course, there is always that argument as to whether Egypt falls into Africa or Middle East or West Asia. I'll let you decide. I didn't want to do the history and geography because I did this before, so I don't want to repeat myself. But many agree that Egypt falls under Africa, not a Middle East or West Asia. That is my opinion. In— when you see, you hear about countries like North Africa being part of Middle East. No, it's not. It's African continent, simple as that. So there is a, there is a great article out there if you get a chance to read it about this Chinese, uh, J-10, uh, sea fighters. So I'm gonna copy it and put it for you in the chat box should you decide to read it later on. So Now, as I said, the maneuvers, uh, are being held and will continue to be held in an undisclosed Egyptian military base. The reason I know a little bit about Egypt is because my unit— see that one there, 1st Cav— we used to do the rotation to Egypt and Kuwait mainly, even though I was in the MI, military intelligence, for the U.S. Army., but one of the rotations was in Egypt. So we kind of very, very familiar with their structure, militarily speaking. And the undisclosed Egyptian, uh, base, maybe because the Chinese requested it, because remember the deployment of new radar. Whatever the case might be, suffice it to say that it has a significance into all this. So, and when you think about where this is moving forward because this is now about the transient naval exercises, whatever. No, no, no, no, no, no. This is moving to a higher level. We're talking about Air Force, we're talking about air powers, we're talking about upgrade of fighter jets. And this is where you start to ask yourself, what could it be? The goals or the objectives and the messages, uh, from this First, this is the first. I need you guys to remember this. This is the first air maneuvers between China and Egypt. Yeah, because here is the thing, and I had a chance to read an analysis by a major general. He's a fellow, uh, at the— he's a fellow at the Military Academy for Advanced Strategic Studies and also visiting professor at NATO in Brussels. So his name is Dr. Said Ghonim. I hope I pronounced this correct, you know, and I agree with his assessments. So, and because there is an objective to these exercises and there is a message, of course, some inside the Egyptian administration, which is most of it are military, Because remember how Al-Fattah Sisi came to power through coup that we gave the green light to, and I'll get into that later on. So because one thing you need to consider is that Egypt is a main, uh, ally of the US, but is also a main non-NATO ally, the same way Morocco falls under This is why we went ahead and sold— we agreed to sell certain type of weapons, and I'm gonna address this one as I move forward. So, and the reason why now Cairo is exercising, or Egypt is sort of conducting this air exercises with the, uh, with the US— I disagree with Major General for labeling China as the emerging enemy. Why use the term enemy when you say it's an emerging power? And this is again, remember, he's a fellow visiting professor at NATO. You know, you have to understand the wording. This is no different than what the NATO, uh, analysis last year that painted China as the main target to NATO's security. I mean, come on, look where China is, look where NATO is, and how the heck China is becoming a major security threat to NATO? You got my point, you got my point. Anyway, I disagree on this point with the Major General. However, he is, uh, he is right when he, uh, sort of equate this strategic partnership, uh, with the, with, with China sort of as an important and promising partner. Couldn't agree more. This is why I had to put a sort of a word in on one of my, uh, yeah, uh, yeah, right here. When I put one of the— my, uh, my graphic designer asked him to put this one here, and I put the term strategic because you have to understand where this is going. So, and here is another thing, is also you have to understand the objective of both countries, China and Egypt. Both of them wanted some sort of, uh, to have some sort of a military integration. Meaning what? Meaning that for Egypt, in order to improve its air combat coordination It's going to have now to start reconsidering the purchase of the Chinese equipment. And, and there is a reason to that. Two main ones that comes to mind right away. One is reliability. You can count on the Chinese equipment. And second is the cost. So, and that leads me to address, and as I said earlier, guys, I am not going to be talking about the details of the maneuver, who did what. Beside that, that's not my, uh, what I want to focus on because I want to focus about literally what is the goals and the objective of this. What is the strategic vision of why suddenly, even though they might have been scheduled, pre-scheduled, but still the timing of it, given what's going on in Gaza, given what's going on between Iran and Israel, given what's going on with the silence of of the Egyptians on the border. Because if you see where Gaza is, it will make more sense. And Egypt are useless when it comes down to dealing with the Israelis because they know they can't. They know they can't, even though Egyptian military is considered one of the strongest with all its 30 divisions that it has. Yes, Egypt has one of the strong, uh, uh, military, uh, that is. So, so it becomes a question of what message those air exercises are sending, and if they are, to whom. So there are those who will say, oh, there is no message here, it's against nobody, it just— it's not directed at any party at this time and not linked to any regional events. Such as the war in Gaza? I don't think so. I, even though I, you know, I respect the opinion of those who share this, uh, uh, uh, sort of statements, but I have to disagree on that. So it's because the message is focused and, uh, sort of, uh, aimed at those who are concerned. That is the way I see it. Of course, some within the Egyptian military establishment is saying this is nothing but a more moral deterrence to demonstrate Egypt's strength and ability to deter any potential threats. I'm just shaking my head. This doesn't make any sense whatsoever. It's because since when Egyptians were able to stand up? You look at the Gaza issue now, are they able to stand up to the Israelis? Are they able to tell the Americans, no, you can't do that? And I'm not pointing fingers just at Egypt. Look in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Jordan, uh, uh, Egypt in this case, Lebanon, uh, uh, Iraq, uh, Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria to a degree, you name it. And that's why I disagree with this, oh, this is nothing but a, a, a moral deterrence. No, no, that's nonsense. This is nonsense. Egyptians are very concerned about we are dragging our feet in providing them an upgrade to F-16s because we want— we don't want to give them any advanced system. Can you imagine us giving the Egyptian F-35s? That will never happen. The only country that got that one at that time was Israel, and even with Israel, we had to make some, some minor, uh, uh, uh, sort of changes to the avionics of the F-18, uh, F-35s. Other than that, who's getting the F-35s? You got my point? So If Egypt's still dealing with the F-16s and not getting the parts, they have now to start to think because the dynamics are changing and they're seeing a potential into acquiring the Chinese— the, uh, I have the J— where is it? Yeah, J-10 right here. And they even can go as far as acquiring the stealth fighter J-20. I mean, you think about it, this is exactly why Egyptians are moving forward into this direction. So the other aspect has to do with, uh, uh, Egypt wanting to raise its readiness, especially for possible scenarios in Africa or on the Nile River basin. Because remember, geography— this is where the importance of it. When you look at how far the Nile stretches to, because water could become— I had a chance to read about 15 years ago, uh, it was, it was inside the government, wasn't classified, it just was for internal consumption, about how water— yeah, water, lack of access to water could become a flashpoint for a war. And we're looking at this right now. I can see it right here in my country, especially on the border with Mexico. But I can also see it in West Asia, how lack of access to water could trigger a war. This is why Israel went ahead and cut off water to Gaza. You have to understand this. Egyptians are thinking in those terms. And remember the tensions that exist between Ethiopia and Eritrea and Egypt, and regarding the dam and access to water and all this. Egypt is thinking ahead regarding this one. So that is one of the, the, the aspects he wants to do. So the other aspect is, for Egypt, this is an opportunity to do what is to think about rebalancing its military relations with, with the Chinese. How so, you may think, is by testing the Chinese fighters in a realistic combat environment. Because you're gonna have to think in terms of when you use those advanced fighter jets, because the J-20 is— it's a stealth fighter, it's an advanced one. When you think about the J-10 It's very advanced with all the technology it has and all that. So the Egyptians will have to test this in a realistic combat environment. This is why the exercises focused on the air, not maritime. So because they wanted to understand the maneuverability of these planes, we wanted to understand the landing and takeoff of, of, of on a short range., uh, on runways. They're gonna have to understand the use of monitoring systems and electronic warfare. That is part of the dynamics. This is why the Chinese, uh, brought in their own radars regarding this. And this is one of the concerns NATO and US and all that has about selling— that argument that the equipments of other countries are not as good as the Americans. Which is not true. It's not true. That is how I— because here is the thing, the facts speak for themselves, is that China possesses a comparative— I need you to understand that— a comparative advancements in modernizing equipments and development of the combat tactics. So because why is this important? It is important because Having this kind of, uh, uh, uh, aspects of developments in the air power will provide countries that wants to cooperate with China so they can have access to its advanced combat experience and systems. Because here is the thing, the reason why Egypt is doing once again is because they are lacking access to spare parts and so forth. Regarding the F-16, we are dragging our feet intentionally. Remember what I said last time to you, that, uh, we hold the encryption key to F-35s? Even if we sell it to some countries, we can shut it off, shut it down if we want to. Most countries do not know. So, and this is again what you need to understand with how, how, uh, uh, sort of for Egypt is thinking strategically, you know, and strategically from the perspective of diversifying its military arsenal. They can't be depending on only the US right now, given where the US is going, given the, the, the, uh, the— with the Trump in office and the chaos that exists, whatever. Who's to say that Mr. Trump will turn on Egypt and say, you know, we're not giving you any spare parts anymore. You know, that's how erratic Mr. Trump is. You know, what about the aid? Which, by the way, Egyptian has been receiving aid from the US since— does anybody know when? Since when the Egyptian has been receiving a yearly aid from the United States? Let me see what year You guys can type in, and it was a major event that led to that. Let me just see. Uh, YT, 1972. Add one more year, boycott 1967, '78. You know, it has to do with the Camp David, 1973, if I'm not mistaken. 1973. So it's because Egypt signed the deal with the Israelis regarding peace. And in return, we gave them stipend yearly, our taxpayers. You know, I will not give them money. I won't give any country money. I'll give countries that need help, that they can use the money to rebuild their countries. The money that we've been giving to Egypt, where does it go? It goes to the military establishment. Because what you need to understand about Egypt, Egypt is controlled by the military establishment. Those the one that control the economy, the funding, everything else. This is why if you go into the history of Egypt, go all the way back to Jamal Abdel Nasser, all of them came from military background. Jamal Abdel Nasser, Anwar Sadat, Hosni Mubarak, and now you have, uh, Sisi. All of them, even the head of the intelligence services Uh, uh, what's his name? Uh, Omar Suleiman. You know, it was a former general. You know, they all of them coming from all this, and that's the way I see it. Pardon me. Now there is another aspect we have to— oh, Raphael, I'm gonna— since I do livestream by myself, I can interrupt here. Rafael, thank you so much. I, I need you to know, Rafael, how much I appreciate your support for the channel. I don't take it for granted. I just need you to know this, you know, it means a lot to me and I'm very, very grateful to you for that. So, uh, you wrote, I think Egypt saw the Greek Empire going away, they saw the Romans, they saw the Turk Empire getting destroyed. I think they accept China gonna be the one. Good point, good point into that, because they gonna have to think strategically. Remember, the economic conditions inside Egypt, it's not promising. And I'm even left to ask myself, what happened to the aid that we send into Egypt that's supposed to go to the people? The same we do for other countries, even the Palestinian Liberation Organization. We give them about $700 to $800 million a year. Where does it go? We give money to Egypt, we give money to other countries. So, so once again, thank you, uh, Rafael, truly appreciate you for that. And Valentina, good to see you as always. Thank you for this intelligence informative videos. You are most welcome, Valentina. It really means a lot to me. That you are recognizing this. Because like I always say, guys, the analysis that I do is unique to this channel. You know, I don't follow the crowd in YouTube just talking about whatever. You know, I care less for views, if it has or not. No, no, no, no. It's the quality of the information that I need you to have, because you are giving me your time. You are sitting here and listening to what I have to say. I better give you something of value. And I hope I am. So thank you so much, Valentina. I truly appreciate you for that. Now, there is one looming issue that you need to think when it comes down to Egypt, and that has to do with the location. Let me share the map here, and I'm gonna point to two countries. Uh, this one, you might see it right there. Yeah, here is Egypt. And the two countries I'm referring to here is all the way in the west is Morocco and Algeria. You all know the tensions that exist between Morocco and Algeria regarding the desert, the Sahara Desert. Why is this important? And, and I can do a video on this separately, but for now I'm not gonna tackle this one here. The reason you need to understand, because— and I'll start with Morocco first because Morocco just got the green light to go ahead with the purchase of the FIM-92 Stinger missiles from the United States. Let me share a picture with you here so you guys can see. It's right here. Those are the missiles. Now Morocco is going to be buying about 600, almost about $900 million, almost a billion dollars. You know, and those are shoulder-fired missile system which designed to take down low-flying aircraft such as helicopters and even fighter jets. So now makes me just wonder, uh, can Morocco afford a billion-dollar purchase at the expense of the economy? Some of you will say common sense, we say no. Others will say Yes, it can, given the tensions that exist with Algeria. And that is my point. On the other hand, I still can counter-argue this by saying the, the, the— for, for Morocco, he could have considered buying, for example, the Chinese HQ-7, which is also a short-range air defense missile at a fraction the cost. Those missiles cost about, to my knowledge, about $24,000 to $25,000 each. But of course, you have to buy the launcher and so forth with that. But still, it won't amount to a billion dollars. But again, Morocco has its own reasons for moving forward with this, except that the argument we are making to the Moroccan government is that This is for your future defense. The same arguments we make to the Saudis, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, you name it. That's how we sell the weapons. Now, on the Algeria part, you're gonna have to thank also— Algeria just purchased some weapons from Russia, but it also purchased something from China, which is the corvette. This is the naval, uh, what the, uh, Algerian just purchased, uh, from the Chinese. Because now Algeria just placed an order for the additional type of, uh, uh, 056 Corvette from China. This is what you need to understand, because this one is tied to what's called the, the patrol corvette and project 22-380 missile corvette. So this is very, very important to understand. So the dynamics that exist between Morocco and Algeria, it's making Egypt think long-term what-if scenario. So they wanted to be prepared because remember, Morocco is client of the US, Algeria is client of both China and Russia. That leaves you with the two left countries: Tunisia, which is in a, in a social chaos right now, what's going on internally. That, that leaves us with, uh, Libya. Libya is moving away from the US. That's the whole reason for why we launched NATO and took out Gaddafi, because of what he was planning on doing. And that leaves Egypt. And this is why Egypt now made that decision to move forward. So there is another point that you need to understand in this analysis: why the Egyptians decide to move forward. They know— Egyptians know that this is going to aggravate the Americans, but who cares? Who cares? The reason Egypt went for this is because they understand the Chinese flexibility. What do I mean by this? The Chinese always come in free from any political sensitivities and mistrust. Another word, Chinese, when they go ahead and involve in transactions like this with Egypt, they are not going to be talking to Egypt about human rights, about free elections, about this nonsense stuff. That is why, and that's why you have to think in terms, is this building to sort, sort of a strategic alliance, strategic partnership, long-term reliable partner? So it's because, remember, Egypt with the US is under the thumb because Egypt will have to succumb to Israeli pressures. I mean, look at it right now in the Gaza situation. And not just Egypt, any Arab country beside Yemen and Iran— not Arab, sorry, because Iran is not an Arab, Iran is Persian— any Muslim, so-called Muslim countries. So, but even for Egypt, he was under the thumb of the US, but also still had to purchase Rafael fighter jets from France. And this is why it became clear to me personally that those exercises were still going on till the beginning of May. Is an— is it's almost a realistic opportunity for the Egyptians to test the Chinese aircraft and maybe move forward with this. So even the Saudis, you might think, despite what you hear, the Saudis went ahead and purchased the, the, the, uh, the, the Chinese, uh, technology. And I have documentation for that, and I'm gonna share an excerpt from you and share a link of a satellite to show you the location of where that is. So first of all, let me, uh, show you this excerpt is from my Saudi book that I wrote about Saudi Arabia. So it is what I wrote back then. Another argument suggests that Saudi Arabia wants to possession itself militarily in case its interests collide with Iran. Remember, that was back then. I still, to a degree, hold true today. Iran's expanding influence and increasing military capability lend support to that claim. Indeed, many defense analysts suggest that Iran's military capabilities outmatch those of Saudi Arabia, especially its naval capability and missile accuracy. The latter assertion compels me to address Saudi Arabia's missile force. Saudi Arabia's missile technology is outdated and weak in comparison to that of Iran, Israel, and Turkey. The southern missile base in Saudi Arabia which was kept secret for some time, is now exposed. There is, however, nothing of great importance about that missile site. The site, which called Al-Sulayr, is the first Saudi ballistic missile facility which was built in 1987 or 1988 near the town of Al-Sulayr, which is about 450 kilometers southwest of the Saudi capital, Riyadh. Why is this important? Because it houses the Dongfeng-3, which is a Chinese missile known for, uh, for, uh, for its test. And I have a link here, guys. I'm gonna share it with you. Uh, just give me a second here. I'm gonna share— sorry, I'm gonna share the, the satellite. And this is a not a military satellite image. I, I can't share that anyway. I don't have access to it anyway. Uh, this is just a public domain here. Take a look, guys, here. And this is where you— I'm going to make this bigger and I'm going to point with my cursor. I don't know if you can see it. Uh, you see where Riyadh is? You have to move southwest about 400 kilometers. So it's right in the middle of nowhere. That's, that's what it is. So, so this is where, uh, uh, that, uh, particular aspects of itself. And this is why when you go back to 2014, things have changed for Saudi Arabia. Why? Because Saudis made it publicly known. And the way they did it, it was through parade, military parade, because he showed the missile launchers The government approved that one, of course. And those, the images of online of DF-3, those are Chinese missile launchers. And another type was DF-21. So, and those are more deadly accurate, even better than the DF-3. So, and I remember reading one particular, uh, uh, uh, analysis by, at that time, because I, I disclosed that in my book, in, in, in the Saudi book, I disclosed that and I give credit to the individual. Uh, his name is James Martin. He was the director of the, the director of East Asia Non-Proliferation Program. So, so, and here is what I wrote, and I quote, it used to be that Saudi Arabia did not want to call attention to its building missiles for Of course, Khalid shrouded his '80 trip to China and the ensuing shipments in secrecy, although news of the sale eventually broke, and although information about Saudi Arabia's new missile bases near As-Sulayl and Juffair appeared in the press. That is exactly what happened with this particular aspect. So makes you just wonder about the Egyptians thinking in terms of, uh, of where this is. I have another image here, if you allow me just briefly share with you another satellite image. Take a look here, guys. Close this. And I, I don't know if you can see my cursor, uh, when I point out When you look at where Saudi Arabia is, and you have— this is Mecca, and the base is where it says 88F. Those are the part of the longitude and the coordinates part of it. They won't disclose, but the Sulayr, Sulayr city is right here on the right. So, and by the way, right here in the bottom, that's Yemen. This is why the Saudis are very, very concerned about, uh, the Houthis. So anyway, suffice it to say, to go back to our, uh, idea of why Egypt is moving forward, this one also now highlights to you what kind of foreign policy the Egyptians is going to embark on, or it's already embarking on. There are those who saying, oh, this is a strategy of non-alignment. I'll say it's nonsense. It's nonsense. Egypt is looking to secure access to upgrade its air defense because they were depending on us the entire time. The overreliance, you know, on any single geopolitical bloc, which in this case the United States and the Western camp. So, but also Egypt wanted to start to think in terms of the possibilities of looking for alternative. And that goes with the territory. When I'm saying territory, I'm referring to the changes on the geopolitical landscape. So this is the way I see it. So, uh, once again, you have to think in terms of, uh, where— because the— for the South— for the Egyptians It's marked by corruption, has always been. And I disclosed in some of my previous writing that even the most financial donations from Saudi Arabia to the Muslim governments, including Egypt, where do they end up? They end up in private bank accounts of corrupt leaders, no exception. So for instance, and I disclose this because I did the research and I have a reference for it. So it's because some estimates, when I did the research regarding Hosni Mubarak, let me show you a picture to those who might not know. Right after his death, uh, where is Mubarak? Hosni Mubarak, uh, let me get a picture of his right here, guys. Bear with me. I thought I did. Hosni Mubarak and Mohamed Morsi. Mr. Mohamed Morsi. Yeah, when Hosni Mubarak— right here, Hosni Mubarak. What I found in my research from when I was writing the Saudi book about the money, that during his 30 years in power, he amassed massive amount of money. So, and I know some have estimated it between $30 to $40 billion. So, and of course, some of the corrupt Arab leaders were supposed to spend the financial assistance on their citizens. So on infrastructure, on education, on job training, and so forth. You got the idea. So ask an average— ask an average Muslim in Cairo, ask an average Muslim in Amman, in Baghdad, in Beirut, or even Saudi Arabia in itself. So, so you got the idea. And this is, once again, you start to wonder How far, and, and can the Chinese trust the Egyptians? Because there is also a big concern. And if I were to advise the Chinese, I will say you need to make certain of one particular thing, is that you don't share all your technology with the Egyptians because they can turn around and share it with the Americans. And the reason I'm saying this, I'm saying it from experience. It was one specific technology that we shared with the Israelis. Guess what the Israelis end up doing? They end up sharing it with the Chinese. Yeah, don't be surprised, don't be surprised. This is how it works. So suffice it to say right now that the Egyptians are really, really seeking They want some sort of an alternative to the F-16 fighter jets. It's because it won't hold up in, in, in a, in a, in a dogfight. It won't hold up against the new technologies. You know, when you look, consider what the Russians have— the Su-35, the Su-57, which is one of the upgrade stuff. As a matter of fact, I found out that the Russians will not sell that to any country yet. Uh, then now you have the Chinese, the J-20 and the J-10. So because to the Egyptians, you know, it's about survival, this is how you're going to move forward with this. And all this leads us to ask the logical question: how this is going to impact now the Egyptian-American relations? Moving forward. And not only that, you're going to have to think in terms of the regional balance of power, because we all know the strength of Iran, you know, even though that's Middle East or West Asia, we're talking about Africa. Still, the proximity of Egypt to the, uh, West Asia will have to make you think in terms of understanding those dynamics when you consider where Egypt is. So in comparison, so all this is common sense for us to think pragmatically in terms of why Egypt will be doing what it's doing. You're gonna have to think in these terms, otherwise we will be missing a big picture into all this. So, and how the Egyptians gonna now manage their relations with the Americans Uh, it's hard to tell at this point. What I know for a fact is that Egyptians depend on the US annual aid, that's for sure. Egyptians don't have any advanced technologies that they can export to the rest of the world. Egypt is not your advanced technologically. It's agricultural society. So that is one of, uh, uh, the things. So where the Egyptians seeing the change with China versus the US is that the Egyptians are noting, they are noting, noting that China has become some sort of, uh, a primary trading partner for Egyptians. That's why they are part of BRICS now, you know. And is willing— meaning China is willing and able to transfer and localize technology to others, not just to the Egyptians, unlike the United States, which restricts its partners. And this is why when you think about the arms sales relations between Egypt and the United States will likely decline moving forward in favor of China. So, but you have to understand also the political structure inside Egypt, uh, very, very complicated, a country marred by massive corruption. And, and that's exactly what I argued in my first book. I remember because Right after the elections in 2013, when Mohamed Morsi, this guy right here, let me share the picture with you. You all remember when Mohamed Morsi won the democratic elections. We didn't like the outcome. We didn't like the outcome. And that's why we went ahead and gave the green light for Sisi to conduct— let me see if I can find his picture. Yeah, I do have a picture of, uh, the current president. That is also another corrupted anyway. So, but right here, that's the current one. He is a former general also. So all of them come from that. So let me share a quick excerpt with you here before I continue on my analysis. This is from my first book. And here's what I wrote: The United States' ability to articulate its vision for how it intends to cooperate with other global powers and regional players is paramount. However, many wonder whether the United States can refrain from conducting a double standard foreign policy, one that supports tyrants and dictators like in Egypt, while at the same time claiming to support free elections and human rights. Other reasons are strictly political. For instance, Egypt, which successfully witnessed the removal of Hosni Mubarak, a dictator, through demonstrations as part of the Arab Spring movement that swept most of the Muslim world, descended into chaos that led to a military coup. In 2013 by General al-Sisi. Replacing one dictator with another continues to hinder both the political and security stability of the country. And once again, that becomes very, very clear to me, because when you think about how may Egypt sort of had to respond and deal with this development, given its security and political instability, it's because the military coup that took place ousted the only democratically elected president, Mohamed Morsi. And as a matter of fact, when I say the only democratically, not only in Egypt, is in the Arab world. Tell me if there are any elections in the Arab world. What happens, you know, of course Morsi's case was very, very different because he was part of the Brotherhood. And there is a lot, a lot political— I'm not gonna get into that right now. Suffice it to say that he was the only one elected in the Arab world, so, and that's something is worth highlighting to you. So, uh, just to summarize all this, guys, I need you to understand that now is Cairo or Egypt that is considering now China as a gateway for new weapons because China has developed some advanced systems that goes beyond the performance of the F-16s and the Rafales from France. So, but what you can see is you're gonna be seeing a gradual impact on the American-Egyptian relations moving forward. It's because Egyptians are now paralyzed regarding what's going on in Gaza, you know, and yet they claim themselves to stand with the Muslim Brothers. And all that is nonsense. I am here to tell you based on experience. I've been in some, most of the, uh, Middle East and Arab countries and all that. I understand the culture, I speak the language. I am here to tell you, when you hear Arab leaders talking about the Muslim Brotherhoods and and support. It's lie, it's nothing but hypes. So for Egypt now is increasing its military cooperation with China, and of course comes also on the heels of Mr. Trump's approach, which forces allies to choose between, uh, the country. Because in Egypt's case Xi Jinping is thinking about, will he be forced to choose between US or China? This is why Xi Jinping didn't come to Washington because he wanted to avoid being humiliated in the White House. So one thing that I am leaning more towards now is that what I see is that I see the Chinese fighter jets, the like of, might not be J-20, but at least J-10, I can see them as a replacement for the F-16s moving forward. And this, of course, is going to impact the relationship, the military relationship between, or partnership between the US and Egypt. So, but again, Egypt has to do what it has to do to, to think about its, its, its survival. So the other aspect has to do also with its— with Israel. Even though Egypt has a peace treaty with Israel, you know, because Israel views Egypt's action regarding with China as an attempt now to restore the regional military balance, especially after Israel's superiority in confrontation with Iran and its proximities or its proxies in the regions. So Israelis are thinking in terms of pressuring the Americans not to provide the Egyptians with what they need to upgrade their air squadron. Egyptians, on the other hand, are not staying idle. We're not gonna wait for the Americans. We're gonna look for alternative, and the alternative is Far East, and that is the reason why it moved into that direction, let alone becoming a part of BRICS. And that's going to open up the door for more aspects of it. Uh, oh, by the way, I have picture of the HQ-7 short— those are the Chinese short-range, fraction of the cost, of course. This is a picture of the Chinese, and those are not Americans, those are Egyptians, by the way. They just, they use the same camouflage we use. So, all right guys, that's all I have to say. I am gonna, uh, by the way, I'm gonna have to talk to you about my upcoming trip to Asia. I am noticing the fundraising is not moving up at all. Maybe I'm not saying much about it, but I am gonna be asking you, uh, for that because I need to share something with you here. Let me, let me share the barometer for you. Here is where we are as of today. We're about 11%. Now here is the thing I need you to know. If I don't reach this target amount, I'm still gonna travel, but I will not be able to go to the locations that I have in mind. That means I will stay put in only one or two locations, given the amount of money that we're gonna raise between now and then. If I reach this funding, then I will of course go to the locations. And trust me, you want to know what I am going to be reporting from this particular location if I end up going, if we reach that, uh, target funding. But so far This is where we are, 11%. I still have to say thank you to all that been donating to the, uh, uh, Buy Me Coffee or in support— Buy Me Tea— in support of, uh, uh, of my, uh, Asia trip. Uh, and, and again, I'm gonna share quickly here. Uh, I want to say thank you to, uh, American Citizen for buying me 3 cups of tea. Twice in, in, in, in about a week and a half. Eric Cho, thank you so much. Uh, Stephen Chan, thank you so much. Uh, Chu Lim, thank you very much for— Hangin' G, thank you very much for buying me 10 cups of tea in support of the, of, of the Asia trip. So I just want you guys to know because I promised you I will share that with you. So here is the link if you want to support my my upcoming Asia trip should you do so. I am also going to share with you a link to the channel. This is the, the funding for this goes for the channel, not for the trip. So, but anyway, this is what I want you to know. And if you decide to purchase some of my books, here is the link for that. And I am very, very grateful for your support. Once again, let me go back to, uh, uh, share the— say thank you to those who— for Super Sticker. Once again, Noel, I want to say thank you again, appreciate you for that. Valentina, once again, many thanks for your continued support. Rafael, one can't thank you enough, man, for your continued support. Uh, Kareem, thank you for becoming a new member of the channel and welcome to our community. So good to have you. Once again, Rafael, here you are again. My take is, is the new Russia-China world order. Regional power will solve problems in their areas. Egypt is getting room to solve Gaza issue. I, I, I see your point on this, Rafael. The only thing that I have a reservation on is that Arabs are so weak to take stand against Israel or the United States or regarding Gaza. The reason being because most Arab countries only use the Palestinian cause to divert attentions from domestic failures— economics, education, healthcare, infrastructure, and so forth. I mean, I mean, by now they would have done it. Look, how, how long has been the conflict between, uh, in, in, in, in Gaza? What did the Arab countries do? And that's my point. So I see your point on that, Rafael, but I also have that reservation because I happen to know how the mindset and how the governments in the Arab world operates. They will allow demonstrations in the streets to show the public image that we're supporting the Palestinians, but deep down they care less because they wanted to divert the attentions from their own failure. That's just the way I see it. And, and anybody, guys, you can, uh, uh, chip in here with your ideas. If I, if I am wrong or if you have a different opinion, share it with the community. And I'm very, very grateful to all of you. I, I thank you for keeping the conversation very civil. I appreciate you for that, guys. I want you to know. And it's up to you guys to keep an eye also on the channel, how, how things are moving. So I can, I can, I can only do one thing at a time. So, so I, I count on you. So, uh, uh, Herc Owen, so thank you so much for this, man. Truly appreciate you. Thank you, sir. Pleasure as always. We enjoy your analysis and insight. My pleasure. It's really community members like yourselves, guys, it's what keeps me going. And I want you to know that. And I'm not saying it to be Mr. Nice. I am not that type. I'm a straight shooter. Don't ever expect me to sugarcoat things, and it's not my personality. That's just, you know, that's just how I am, uh, even with family members, whatever. They know I, I don't sugarcoat. I can't. I can't. It's just not my personality. So when I say I appreciate you for whatever you're doing, I mean it. So Hi guys, remember to join me tomorrow on the other channel for— we're going to be talking tomorrow about Europe's economy in, in link with the US tariffs and so forth. So don't, don't, don't forget to join me tomorrow. I'll be there with Elizabeth, so we'll be talking about European, and, and I'll be coordinating with Jayant Bhandari and Carl Zell for our upcoming, interview here on this channel. As always, remember, geopolitics impact your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, guys. Bye-bye.