Encircling Iran from the North: The Strategic Corridor Reshaping Caucasus Geopolitics

Hello everyone and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Excited to be with you as always. Is the US encircling Iran's northern front for the first time in 3 decades? Now a foreign power is rewriting the map of the South Caucasus, and it's not Russia, it's not China. The Trump's route is reshaping great power competition in ways that could fundamentally, literally isolate Iran, weaken Russia, and force China to choose between confrontation and pragmatism. So this is what I'm going to be talking to you today in this analysis about an update regarding what's going on with now the US movements in this part of the world. This is on the border from the northern part of, of Iran. And I'll play some clips for you as we move forward. What we're looking at with the escalation of this regional tensions that is related to Iran, questions now have risen about whether the United States is preparing to militarily now, not just strike, but encircle Iran from its northern part. It's very crucial once you understand the dynamics of this, which one I'm gonna be doing for you in this livestream, taking advantage. So what the US is doing basically is taking advantage of the geopolitical shifts that is going on in the Caucasus region, because that region, and I believe I have a map for you. Uh, I think so. This is one of the routes here. Uh, what's important about this particular region is that it touches on— it's sort of interconnected but distinct strategic concerns about Iran. Two locations. So the way I'm going to present this for you, I'm going to address the southern theater of what's going on with the United States, mainly with now the added of the Gerald Ford USS aircraft, because Donald Trump just ordered the movement of the USS Gerald Ford into the region. And with this, I'll put it in perspective for you. So the southern, the southern theater, a part of Iran, that's where the US naval buildup is. As you know, since late January 2026 of this year, The US has moved significantly— a significant military assets and increased its military presence across the region, Middle East, that is. Of course, we had before the USS Abraham Lincoln. This is the picture of it. And now we have the Gerald Ford, which is on its way. To the region. And of course, all this is accompanied by additional air, naval, and missile defense forces. And I'm not going to get into the details of this, you already know part of it. What is basically the US is doing with adding all this massive amount of assets, you look, for example, uh, uh, 15, uh, 35 of, uh, F-15 Strike Eagles which deployed to Jordan. You have the air tanker aircraft surging in and placed or deployed to Al Ubeid base in Qatar. Then you have additional missile defense batteries moving into position across the Gulf. This is from the southern part or the southern theater of Iran. Now when you look at the north, north part or the north theater of Iran, which is the, the key, what I'm gonna be addressing in this, uh, analysis here. That's you looking at the Caucasus area or the corridor, as it's known. And why is this important? Because you have to go back to August 2025, and I remember I did a video for you about this, and this has to do with the peace agreement that was signed in Washington on August 2025 between Armenia and Azerbaijan. And that in itself is what is established the so-called Zangezur Corridor. Let me show you on, on the map here to understand, because it's very, very important to understand these particular locations here. This is the deployment of the US military. Okay, and this one is the corridor based on the peace agreement that was signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan. And I remember back then when I did the livestream for you and I said Armenia has given the green light for the US to establish a military base. Of course, we didn't call it a military base because we didn't want to sort of put the cart before the horses. We didn't want to make it public, but the deal for that peace in return for the U.S. having established a military presence in Armenia. And this is where it's coming into play because this Zangezur Corridor, you know why it's important? Because it includes with it a 99-year lease. Yes, the U.S. Leased that territory for 99 years. This is no different than what we did in Guantanamo, in Gitmo. No, I went there, I was there. So during my time there, we released it again from— for another 99 years. So the territory doesn't belong to the US. We just leased it for almost 100 years. We are doing the same right here in the Zangezur corridor with Armenia. And why is this important? Because it is a strategic transit route through southern Armenia that is connecting Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan enclave. I'm going to show you a map. I believe I, I think I took a map here. I did. Let me show— see if— yes, right here. Just to show you the geographical area as to why the US got a deal with Armenia, because that's going to cut off Iran. That is what's important about this one. So 99 years for lease. Iran views this development as very threatening, and rightly so, because you're going to be encircled from the north. Ali Akbar Velayati, he's the advisor to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. I think I have a picture of him right here. He's, by the way, a professor also. He teaches. He stated that, and I quote, the main goal of this project is to weaken the access of resistance, severe or sever rather Iran's ties with the Caucasus. And encircle Iran and Russia from the south of the region along their land borders. This is exactly what Ali Akbar Velayati stated based on this move by the US. He also added that this project, meaning the US now leasing the, uh, the, that location there, is part of the plan. So US plans to prepare the Caucasus as the new front of pressures against both Russia and Iran. This is really what's at the heart of geopolitics, because now the US could have— and I say could have— the possibility of not firing a shot but still create an issue for Iran. 99 years, a 99-year land lease. So basically, within it, the US is going to operate about 43 kilometers Which is a long route that includes railways, that includes communication networks, and that includes pipelines for oil and gas. Just think about the strategic aspects of that. And the strategic concern for Iran appear legitimate from geopolitical perspective. This is why Iran now has to really deal with something else. This is what I'm saying. Had they went ahead and test the nuclear bomb and declare themselves, we won't be having this conversation at all. But Iran was saying, well, because of religious duty, whatever. That's nonsense. Once again, look what North Korea did. Look what Pakistan did. Did we— do we dare to threaten any of those countries? I will say Iran is creating this problem for itself. They should have moved on with this way back, 2015, 2019 when the US pulled out of JCPOA. Back then they should have said, "We done with the NPT, we're no longer a member of that. And we ask the IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to leave the country. We done with cooperation and move with whatever." But they choose not to. And this is now where it's going to be, this corridor. And I'm going to show you the map here for it. This is the corridor right here. This corridor, in my opinion, now it represents an increased Western infrastructure on Iran northern border. Now there are those who saying, well, this might not sort of amount to a to military encirclement per se versus maybe economic encirclement. Whatever the case may be, you know, once again, if Iran had a nuclear weapon and declared, the US will have to think twice about doing this. And this is where you see this military shipment, because the US has been doing this for a while. And, and by the way, also this this particular, uh, map right here. Oh, not this one, I'm sorry, uh, this one here. This the flight pattern, also showing the flight patterns of the US that's been conducting, uh, for a while. It's because it leads us to ask the, uh, the, the logical question: do these US military shipments have a main geographical focus towards Armenia and Azerbaijan on one hand, and on the other hand against Iran. Because the strategic logic behind US-Armenia military cooperation paves the way for this. This is why the US Secretary of State went to Armenia. This is why you have the Secretary of State, uh, the Vice President in Azerbaijan. And I'm gonna play a clip in a second here for you. So when you think about all this, why the US is deepening these military ties with Armenia, there are specific reasons for this. Of course, Washington is going to say this has nothing to do from encircling Iran. I don't buy that argument. It does. The objective of it is to encircle Iran on one hand, but at the same time, you can hit two birds with one stone. Russia, as a matter of fact, Russia made a mistake a few years ago when it didn't step in to support Armenia. This is the consequences of it. And this, when you start to look in the post-conflict realignment, Because when Armenia was defeated in Nagorno-Karabakh against Azerbaijan and the loss of certain Artsakh territory, because they lost it, that's when you had the Armenian now decided to cut a deal with the US military cooperation. And that is in itself will enable Armenia now to have forced closer ties with the US because now Iran cannot be trusted. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan— we know about Azerbaijan being used by Israelis as the backdoor into Iran. Most of the spies that came in, they came in through Azerbaijan. And this is why Armenia now is essentially pivoting away from Russia after feeling abandoned by Moscow militarily. And I believe Moscow made a mistake, strategic mistake, by not showing at least some military support for Armenia back then. The same argument we are witnessing right now regarding Iran. Yes, Russia might have sent some weapons and so forth, but again, what is the— is importance of a friend when it cannot show up for you in time of need? That's the argument that some have made. And this is exactly where you see, as of February 9th, this is where the formalization of the support, when Marco Rubio went ahead and upgraded the relationship into the bilateral dialogue, from, I'm sorry, from bilateral dialogue into strategic partnership. You can see why Iran will be very, very concerned. I will be if I am advising the Iranian government. Because now you're looking at a formal bilateral defense consultations, which means what? The presence of US military apparatus or entity or asset, whatever term you want to use. It's the same arguments we've been making, for example, with Philippines, except we never disclosed to them about 4 bases where we're gonna be putting some types of nuclear, tactical nuclear weapons. And this is where you're gonna be seeing now the regulation of the planning of defense between the 2 countries. That will be the planning on one hand, that will be the cooperation on the other. And why does this matter to Iran? Because to Iran, it is an encirclement. The Armenian pivot westward is part of the broader geopolitical shift that Iran is watching right now. I think it's this map right here. It's just when you look at the whole region, you look at the whole areas here. With the US military presence, those are US military presence right here in all these locations here. And now when you go to the other side, when you go to the other side in this one right here, the Armenian, the Azerbaijan, you can see why the concern would be. And that is part of why the Iranians are seeing the Zangazur Corridor infrastructure project as encirclement, because this is more than economic integration or regional realignments. No, no, no, no, no, no. It is a direct military encirclement. So Iran's concern is legitimate, but again, Iran led itself to be in this situation to begin with. You know, put a religion aside, and that's a religion said you don't have nuclear weapons. Well, look what the outcome is, you know, because now to Iran there is much worse problem now. Forget about the military. The military, you can always deal with it. You know, there will be destruction. You can always rebuild and all that stuff. Iran's problem right now is isolation because what you're looking at, you're looking at Western influence, the consolidation of Western influence in a region that historically has been within its sphere, meaning sphere of influence for Iran. So that's why when you think in terms of military, no, no, no, no, no. Look at the big picture. Look at the big picture because now the imminent military threat to Iran is going to be coming from two directions, from Armenia, from Azerbaijan specifically. Of course, for now, the actual military pressure On Iran remains concentrated in the Persian Gulf. This is where you are seeing, when we go back here, why you are not going to see Persian Gulf right here, you see it right here. This is where the concentration of where the U.S. military presence is right now as we speak. So Iran is going to be dealing with this on one end. What about your northern front? Because that is again why it was strategic on part of the EU and so on. Let me play a clip for you here and, uh, let me go from there. Pardon me, I should have uploaded earlier, but it's okay. There it is. Let me do it here. All right, let's take a listen, please.

Well, look, the president's told his entire senior team that we should be trying to cut a deal that ensures the Iranians don't have nuclear weapons. But if we can't cut that deal, then there's another option on the table. So I think the president's going to continue to preserve his options. He's going to have a lot of options because we have the most powerful military in the world. But until the president tells us to stop, we're engaged in these conversations and try to reach a good outcome through negotiation. Would you like to—

sorry, would you Would you like to see regime change in Iran?

And if the regime falls, what comes next? Well, look, I mean, if the Iranian people want to overthrow the regime, that's up to the Iranian people. What we're focused on right now is the fact that Iran can't have a nuclear weapon. That's been the focus of the president's policy, even going back to the first administration.

All right, so that was from Baku. Baku is the capital of Azerbaijan. I used to fly over there on my way to Afghanistan and so forth. Uh, and, and in, in that, uh, clip, I think it was a message that was sent. Remember when he said, as to if Iranian wants to have the regime change, they have to do it themselves? That's a subtle message right there.

My—

suffice it to say, the reason I wanted to share the clip with you is to highlight to you what the U.S. is saying, is that there is no way we will allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. And that's again where I said the mistake Iran made since 2019, the moment, the moment, and back then, and I wrote about it back then when I used to write articles for certain news outlets, I argued that the Iran, the moment the US withdrew, they should have pulled out of NPT. You don't negotiate, you don't negotiate anymore. That's the same way North Korea did. The moment, the moment the US starts saying this or that, they went ahead and pulled out of NPT. And that's to me where I see the problem of Iran made. And with this now you have Donald Trump has decided to send another US aircraft carrier. That's the one right here, Gerald Ford. Which accompanying by warships. And this, what for? You can see why. If we are aiming at escalating tensions, but at the same time, we are trying to encircle Iran from the north, you know, you read between the lines. Because I don't know. It's, it's, I, I still, I'm convinced Iran made a mistake and it's not too late. They could fix it right now by saying, you know what, we done, we done. We don't want to be in NPT and ask the inspectors to never come back and move on. Will it be some hardships economically? Yes, it will. I'm not denying this. But again, unless you're going to be living like this forever, it's also a circle, vicious circle one. So let's talk briefly about the importance geopolitically of this corridor project that Trump has been addressing. And this one is known as TRIPP, T-R-I-P-P, stands for the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity. And this one, as I mentioned earlier, will use Armenian land that will be subleased to the United States for like a consortium and so forth for 99 years. And with this mandate, the US will see— will oversee, rather, the creation and the operation of potential lucrative transit corridor. Because the US will be tasked with the construction and the management. You all know what's coming. So the corridor will connect Azerbaijan with its enclave, or exclave rather, Nakhchivan, and also to rebrand it from the original Zangezur corridor concept. Because this Trump route will be for international peace and prosperity. That's why it was named bearing his name. And by the way, more specifically, the 99-year lease, the US will operate this pipeline, an oil, uh, oil and gas pipeline. They'll operate communication and they operate railways. So what will be the geopolitical purpose of this, you may ask? Because it's worth asking. Of course, the US is saying what the main objective of this, of this development project, is nothing but to reduce influence of Iran, Russia, and China in the South Caucasus region. Now, if you know anything about the Caucasus throughout history, you have to read up on it. And I'm gonna do a specific analysis for you about this particular aspect, that most of the major powers, when they control the Caucasus area, they flourished. When they lost control of the Caucasus area, they went down. That's been throughout history because the roots— that's, that's, uh, this trip It's going to allow not only people and goods to travel between Turkey and Azerbaijan, it's going to go beyond Central Asia. And here is the key: without passing through Iran or Russia. This is the, this is the big picture of this. That's the objective of it. And you can see what will this will lead to. So the trip will place Iran's sole land, only land border with Armenia, under the U.S.-controlled transit route effectively. Because once you do this, what you're gonna do? You're gonna constrain Iran's only friend only friendly access point to the South Caucasus because Iran won't be able to anymore. Here's Armenia, here's Azerbaijan, here is Iran. If we choke this, if this northern part, northern theater is choked, that's it. And this directly addresses sort of why the military encirclement from the north, US is pushing them. Iran understand this reality. Did they count on it? I don't know. But again, I'm not— I don't beat the dead horse here, but I find myself going back to my original point that Iran made a mistake. Do you think— let me ask you instead of me saying this. Do you think, in your opinion, Iran made a mistake when the US pulled out of JCPOA by not pursuing declaration of a nuclear power, a nuclear weapon? Can you please just respond yes or no in, in the chat box? I will greatly appreciate, appreciate it. Once again, in your opinion, did Iran make the mistake by not declaring nuclear power, uh, uh, deterrence? And once again, I find, as I said, uh, to Iran, this is now very, very problematic because it now severs Iran's access to Armenia and other Caucasus states. And of course, this will allow and enable the deployment of hostile foreign forces near its borders. The, the, uh, Iran understand the past history, you know. Yeah, you can warn the Americans all you want. No, no, it's too— you kind of, you kind of create the problem. I'm sorry, it's, it's, uh, I'll, I, I say it the way I see it. That is part of where the problem is. And I'm not gonna get into the symbolic naming of this project, why it was named that way, the trip, you know, the Donald Trump routes, whatever. There's a reason, because Donald, when Armenia and Azerbaijan signed the peace deal in Washington, he was pushing for this because he wants to brand his image as a global peacemaker and his aspiration for the Nobel this price. That's why it was worth it. But we're not going to talk much about this. Now, when you consider the current geopolitical landscape in the Caucasus area with Iran at the heart of it, there are different analyses that are out there. Depends again where you read them from. So the— this project, some Western think tanks, some in Brussels, some in London, and some in Washington here, are arguing that this project is presented as a geo-economic pressure tool against Iran. I go beyond that. I go beyond by saying this is a geostrategic— geopolitical on one end, is strategic on the other hand, because given the possibility that this will reduce the role of Iran, this will reduce also The corridor that is linking Russia to Europe via Armenia will also be cut off. Remember, we hitting two birds with one stone. Why? It's because when certain type of decisions need to be made, they were not made. I am referring to Russia back then when Armenia was fighting Azerbaijan and Russia did not step in to help Armenia. And I am referring to the first war in Iran against, against Israel, June 2025, when Iran, when Russia didn't show its support. Sometimes you have to make certain things public. There are those who are arguing China could also be included in this category, and I'm gonna talk about China in a second because China has also some, thanks to news, in the Caucasus area. So when you look at the current geopolitical landscape in the Caucasus, that is why you're seeing this rapid transformation that is going on. This, in my opinion, at least in my lifetime, is considered a historical shift from decades. We're talking about decades of frozen conflict on one hand, and on the other hand, it was the Russian dominance. Because just think about the historical aspect, and that is one of the reasons why I'm gonna do a recorded video for you about this specific, uh, topic here. For now, I'm just providing you an overall view regarding this particular development. When you think about the South Caucasus, just go back to last year, or even not all the way, just October, November, December of 2025, the south part of the Caucasus shifted away from the geopolitical order, and that geopolitical order that dominated for 3 decades after the Soviet collapse. History plays a role into this, and I make sure— I wanted to make sure you understand this historical angle. Of course, tanks are not helping now with Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine. And also when Azerbaijan defeated the Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh, then now you have this reopening of regional transport routes. Now it's transforming Armenia, it's transforming Azerbaijan. And even transforming Georgia, because those were frozen conflicts and they were also buffer zones, states. They moving from that setting into more of a strategic important transits and energy hubs. This is where China comes in. And that is where you understand the great power game. For me, with this development, I'll call it the Great Power Realignment. And that is why I shared the clip with you earlier about the Vice President JD Vance. That was in early February of this month. That's when he went to Baku, Azerbaijan. Why? Because he want to make sure to push Armenia and Azerbaijan closer to finalize in some sort of a comprehensive peace agreement, because to Americans, it's now or never. It's, it's, it's a historical opportunity. This is why the US is doing what it's doing, because that's why the US has moved into becoming some sort of— we evolved into a key participant in this peace process. Because we, by doing that, we sideline Russia. It's the dynamics of it. Because now you ask any well-informed geopolitical analyst, uh, will tell you right away, Russia has diminished its position now. Of course, Russia is still embedded through energy supply chain, No, nobody's denying this. There's their security presence, but its credibility as regional guarantor has badly weakened. And once again, I go back to the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, when Russia— as a matter of fact, Armenia reached out to Russia for help, but Russia didn't. Of course, Russia was busy with Ukraine war. But this is the strategic mistakes. You don't pay for it right away, you pay for it later on. And that's again where this problem is. So what you are seeing right now, most likely in my opinion, what's going to be now in Moscow, you're going to be seeing disappointments, you're going to be seeing frustration. You're going to be seeing some sort of, what do we do now? Yeah, because Russia has been, you know, involved in this Ukraine, been absorbed into it. Even with the Ukraine conflict, you know, you have this massive power, you know, I don't advocate for wars, don't get me wrong here, guys. If anything can be resolved peacefully, that would be the ultimate, but you don't drag yourself into To me, when you get in a fight, if you are not sure you're gonna win the battle, don't get involved. That's the way I look at it. So for Russia to be, you know, end it once for all. And this will be one particular location that I'm gonna be keeping an eye on. And I wrote about it a few years ago in my— when I wrote my Russia book. I addressed this particular country, and the country is Georgia. That was the time when Mikhail Saakashvili was in charge. So, and the one thing that I see is that Georgia now is drifting away. Meaning what? Is drifting the opposite direction, is drifting away from the West towards more some sort of ambiguous posturing. Not necessarily Russia, but you look over the horizon, you see why they are moving away or drifting away from the West. And the other aspect to think of this is you're going to have to think about the infrastructure competition in the Caucasus. Why do you think Russia and China get involved in funding certain pipeline projects, especially the one from the Arctic but also the Caucasus area. Because starting this year is the year when the physical infrastructure sort of entered the picture. We're talking about railways, we're talking about pipelines, we're talking about fiber optics cables. Because what is going to be happening now is either it's going to band the region together or is going to serve as a new frontline of great power friction. And the great power, we are referring only to three: Russia, China, and the United States. Because remember, I don't have— I wish, sorry, I'm sorry, I didn't have the picture for it. When you consider the Middle Corridor, the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, which has become, by the way, the primary theater of competition. Between whom? You have Azerbaijan on one hand and Turkey seeking to secure this route to bypass both Russia and Iran. So Turkey is aiming for its own interest. Do you blame it? Not necessarily. So one thing I need you to understand with this is the broader context. And this is why the U.S. brokered that deal, that peace agreement, by creating this trip, the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity. And once again, because this route will bypass both Russia and Iran. I I don't like to jump to conclusions, but I don't see any other alternative. So I feel comfortable saying for this, for now, in essence, the Caucasus now is no longer a Russian sphere of influence by default. And the reason I'm saying this, and it's not something easy, lightly, that I say it lightly, it's It's becoming an actively contested area now. You have even the US and the EU now are making unprecedented inroads while Russia struggling to maintain leverage and Iran faces strategic isolation. Yeah, I, I, I, sorry, I'm gonna have to repeat this. Russia made a mistake by not supporting Armenia when it matters. And Iran made a mistake when the US pulled out of GCPOA back in 2019 and decided, no, we'll negotiate with the Americans. This is the price you pay. One thing I need you to always— I remember during the courses that I took for international relations and international security and so forth. The one thing you always— we were advised to keep in mind is always the strategic consequences of certain decisions. They don't appear right away. They'll appear 5, 10, even 15 years later. And this is the perfect example of it. So looking at the geopolitical landscape here of the South Caucasus, this is where this historical transformation comes in. I ask one question now, and I'm almost at the conclusion of this analysis here for you. How do China and Russia now perceive these developments? So I'm going to start with Russia. Of course, to Russia, it has very serious concerns, except that they are being masked as a constraint. Because here is what the Russian Foreign Ministry is saying. While we, we express our support— I'm paraphrasing here based on the article that I read, and I'll share with you the link— we express the sort of our support for a zone of stability and prosperity. No, no, it's not gonna It's not gonna cut it. Let me share the link with you here. You can read it later on. I showed you this site. It's no more. You're looking at, for example, the Nourdoos border as the only border from the north for Iran, which will be now— that's it. Iran's northern front is done for. Let's be realistic here. So nice diplomatic wording, a zone of stability and prosperity. No, no, no, no, no, no. And we're talking about the South Caucasus here. Of course, the Russians have sent signals to the Americans. And the signal is in form of, you know what, those regional conflicts should be resolved by regional powers. In this case, You have Armenia, you have Turkey— I'm sorry, you have Turkey, you have Iran, and you have Russia. Yeah, you can say all you want. Now that the US leased that particular stretch of 43 kilometers, what you're going to be seeing soon is the military installations. That is where the change, because here is what you need to understand. The South Caucasus is to Russia what the Caribbean Basin once was to the United States, a strategic near abroad where outside powers aren't supposed to build permanent leverage. This is where the big problem This goes beyond military. You should have prevented from the get-go. So this kind of Russia's diplomatic tone, it's not going to do anything. It's not going to do anything. From Russia— from Chinese response, now Chinese will approach it completely, or already approaching it differently. China is approaching it from the concept of the strategic patience and economic pragmatism, because that's, that's all they want to do right now. China approach is markedly different from Russia's defensive posture, because while Russia and Iran, if you are to analyze this one, you're going to say to yourself, why Russia and Iran have been some sort of vocal in their opposition to this? Meaning opposition to TRIP, the, the Trauma Roots for Peace and Prosperity. China has not publicly commented on it, not a single word. Sometimes the message is when nothing is said. And you know why? Because to China, it has learned that going toe-to-toe with the US over every infrastructure project is counterproductive. Instead of public confrontation, China prefers working through diplomatic channels and economic incentives as the main strategy for now. Because here is what you need to understand: China went ahead and developed its Chinese nuclear powered icebreaker. It's creating concerns for America right now. And if you think, yes, if you think an icebreaker cannot influence geopolitics, you are mistaken. And not only any type of icebreakers, this is a nuclear-powered This is how Chinese are operating. So when you think about China's sort of policy in the South Caucasus, when you think about it throughout the years, and I wrote about it in my Iran book, in my, in my Russia book, I'm sorry, I talked about China, and I'm going to address it in my current Chinese book that I am working on, by the way. So I didn't want to say much about that. The Chinese policy in the South Caucasus has always been characterized by some sort of strategic minimalization on one end. In other words, they don't want a confrontation, but also they want an economic pragmatism in approaching these dealings. Remember two things: China has invested heavily in Georgia and Azerbaijan trade routes. They also China also invested in ports and some other key infrastructure without entangling itself in the political disputes. But of course, if you invest in something, you have to have a return on investments. And that is where the problem of Russia— sort of the problems that Russia is dealing with, China doesn't have to worry about that. Because when China— when Russia entered into the conflict with Ukraine, the sanctions were imposed and so forth. That imposition of the sanctions ended up sort of impacting the Northern Corridor or Euro-Asian Corridor via Russia. Why? Because it became non-operational. And that is where the strategy is. That means that left the southern Caucasus part as China's sole, only viable overland connection to Europe. I mean, look at the map. There is why, uh, there is usually a course in political science called political geography. That is the importance of it. You need to understand this dynamics. And when you think about the Middle Corridor, you remember I mentioned that Middle Corridor earlier, because China is advancing its own competing infrastructure. I know, rightly so. To Washington, this route enhances its leverage over China also, because these new routes can be seamlessly This is the key, seamlessly integrated into the Trans-Caspian International Transport Corridor, which is known as the Middle Corridor. And what is the importance of it? Because it was originated in Southeast Asia and China and extends eastward across Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. This is why you have to understand these dynamics to make sense to you. And all this because the two main countries, Russia and Iran, made mistakes, strategic mistakes. For once again, for Russia, by not intervening when Armenia was fighting Azerbaijan, and for Iran, by not leaving the NPT when the US withdrew from the GCPUA in 2019. And that is again where you're going to see this strategic asymmetry that is going on right now. There are those, uh, uh, I am not one of those analysts that argue this particular point, uh, that is saying the full operation of this new routes the trip might be seen by China as a benefit. I don't think so. Maybe China is right, but I, I don't see it. Now with this, I have to disagree with the perception of Benjim regarding this, because to China might look at it as a trade, as a way sort of to trade while avoiding unreliable maritime routes. But what makes you think that the US will not impose sanctions and end up holding any, any ships that cross in that area under its jurisdiction, per se. That is why, because the way I see it, China's problem will be that if this route becomes scrutinized, or if Washington leverages its control. That's why I disagree with this perception in Beijing that, oh, it might benefit China. I don't think so. There are some analysts that are saying the same arguments. I happen to disagree with them. Because you have to consider one thing, and the thing is, is that the US foreign policy increasingly waged as a battle with China. Remember the big picture. Who is the perceived enemy here? China. And that is why I am saying that this route, this trip route here, that is, is gonna become a threat to Chinese influence in the region. Yeah, here is my conclusion for you. Military encirclement or escalation management, as we see now in northern Iraq? And when you look at the flight tracking data, this is, uh, this is, uh, from, uh, non-classified source regarding the, the, the flights, the flight tracking data. Of course, some are saying it does not provide evidence of a preliminary US military buildup to encircle Iran from the northern front. Of course, it's not going to show that, and it would be stupid of the Americans to do so. They're not going about it that way. Think pragmatically, think long term. But it reveals, at least those flights, reveals, on the other hand, a different pattern of managing the influence and pressure based on an indirect— the aerial repositioning, the building of a flexible logistical structure deep in the Caucasus, and of course with the movement of the Gerald Ford aircraft carrier strike group added into the equation. So while the economic corridor projects some sort of, uh, the project that they are, the US, involved in remain part of a potential geopolitical pressure tool, what the data actually proves is that Washington's reliance on what can be described as, which is known within the political circles as a silent logistics That's why my thinking is, could it be that the US might not need to fire a shot? Because that is where the US is using this as a means of enhancing readiness and of course, the flexibility of maneuvering despite whatever scenarios that might happen. Because remember one thing, With all the scenarios remaining possible for US move against Iran, you know, because all this while we are— while Iran is considering these negotiations with, with, with US, even though there are some saying that these ongoing negotiations are faltering, I don't know. Once again, Iran will have to make the hard choice. And I think the— if you are to conduct a survey inside Iran and ask the people whether you want Iran to go nuclear, I believe the answer will be yes. The, the, the Ali Khamenei, you know, respect to him, whatever, but this, this arguments of religion Ain't gonna cut it. It's not gonna cut it because we are not gonna rest till that regime is changed or something major happen. And why drag yourself into this, meaning Iran in this case? Once again, learn what North Korea did. Learn what Pakistan did. Even Pakistan is a Muslim country. They didn't say this argument of Islam preventing nukes. What? No, no. Otherwise, Iran's going to be in this vicious circle forever, and that's not fair to the average Iranian citizens. That they deserve better. So let me know what you think in the comment section, okay? And please, please, if you want to help this channel, subscribe, and share this video with others. You know how the algorithm works, you know, the more this video gets exposure, the more people will see it. I would greatly appreciate if you can hit the like button and subscribe. Uh, as I said earlier, I'm gonna be doing, uh, an analysis for you. I'll record it for you and share it, uh, with you later on at some other date. Let me say thank you to, uh, Amer Gulami, thank you very much for becoming a YouTube member. To those who, once again, it's your first time here, I will greatly appreciate if you can subscribe to the channel. Should you decide to support the channel, here is the link. As you know, I, I depend— I count on the community support. I don't have sponsors. Usually it's the sponsors who reach out to me just to do analysis for them. And this— those are not long-term sponsors, so I don't have any of this. I have the community. I will be grateful if you could support the channel should you decide to do so. I am also wanted to share the link with you for those who wants to support my upcoming trip to Asia. So far we are about, uh, right here, what, about 16%. So I'm hoping we can at least by the end of this month reach 30%. That, uh, that would be very, very grateful, uh, if you decide to do so. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, bye-bye.