Europe Must Get Rid of Source of the Problems! Geopolitical Trends

Hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. I'm your host, Dr. Oualaalou, excited to be with you as always. Today's topic will be about what's going on in Europe and basically the fundamental question we ought to ask: is the collapse of the EU near? It's because to those who argue otherwise are saying, well, no, no, no, no, maybe just the EU need to sort of get its act together. No, no, we're talking about a much bigger picture here, and this is what I'm going to be providing you in this analysis here. And, uh, just asking the fundamental questions, especially for my viewers in Europe. So, and speaking of that, please type in, in the chat box where you are joining me from. I would greatly appreciate it. Uh, let me say hi quickly to our wonderful community, as always. Uh, Liang, good to see you. Say It Like It Is, as always. And thank you so much for your Super Sticker yesterday during my conversation with Anna Tengen and Awarik Pau, which I hope you guys enjoyed. So, uh, Abu Khalid, good to see you. Um, Willie Holman, as always. Arami Toure from Spain, good to see you again. TNN Channel, good to see you. Uh, Rulam, good to see you. Dave H, as always. Laval, good to see you. Laval, haven't seen you for the last few live streams. Truth Seeker, as always. Oh my gosh, look who's here! Hangin' G, I haven't seen you for a while, man. Good to see you, good to see you. To those who do not know, Hangin' G's been a— is an avid supporter, probably been busy and all that, but good to see you. Rample So One, good to see you as always. And who else is here? Uh, let me— Casey Wong, good to see you from Malaysia. As always, and appreciate your continued support. All right, let me jump in. Oh, oh, Dina, Dina, good to see you. Uh, oh, from Paris, bienvenue! Good to see you here. So, and, uh, 7A, sure, good to see you, and hello to you as well. So, all right, let me get in into some housekeeping items. I don't have headlines today because I'm going to move directly into the analysis this way, I can cover everything I need to cover. So, uh, just, just remember to join me on the 26th, which is the day after Christmas, for my conversation with author and historian James Bradley. We will be having that conversation at 09:30 Central Standard Time. And on the 27th, the day after the 26th, it will be my conversation with Carl Zah,, as always, our monthly conversation. I look forward to that conversation with Carl. I am also going to be working on a particular analysis for you for the outlook for 2026. I'm working, I'm working through the, the sources that I'm reading and so forth so I can compile a much bigger picture for you. And I will announce it for the community. This is going to be just for the entire community. And I'll do that before the end of the year. So, all right, let's get into our analysis here. And what are we going to be talking about today? Of course, what's taking place in Europe, and, and it's, it's very bad. You know, I, I know some would say, we've seen this before, Dr. Oualaalou. That is correct. It's just sometimes you feel something is different about this time around. And the same is going on right here in the US. Which— that's a separate conversation for another day. I might just share one clip with you, but I will do a video especially for my American viewers here because you need to understand what's going on with that aspect. So the idea that the malaise that is now befalling on the European Union, uh, you know, some would say it lies on many, many aspects: incompetence, lack of direction, lack of vision, the sacrifice, the corruption, rather, at the expense of the European citizens, the level of organization. Do you look at their regulatory paperwork, the legal framework, which, which based on my knowledge amounts to thousands of thousands of pages? This is if you want to move forward. And this is why when you look at it, if I am to think of an analogy, You know what comes to mind? It's the idea like European Union is like a torso, okay, that lack essential instruments. And for what? For preserving the welfare and the security of the people of Europe. So, and this is why that single market per se is, is, is not working, because it's like— I'm sorry, it lacks the common capital, the markets or a full trade competency, especially the changes that's taking place around the world. So, and that is the problem where in Europe. So, and this one stems from a leaked document. As a matter of fact, don't be surprised, some of this what's going on is also fueled by the American president Donald Trump. So it was a leaked draft, and I'm going to share with you the link or the source of that particular leak, uh, draft that came out. So, and this one about which was— I already talked to you about the US National Security Strategy, but it was certain leaks about specific details weren't disclosed in the strategy itself, which reportedly identified— get this— Austria, Hungary, Italy, and Poland, those four countries as a priority partners for Washington, not for a good reason. And this is to pressure the European Union. This is why at the same time the US is establishing some new firepower forum with China and the Russia. So I'm gonna put the link for you. You can read that article for yourself later on, should you decide to do so. This way you can, you know, educate yourself about really where this is coming from. So, and here is what I'm going to do first. I'm going to play a clip for you, okay? Except I'm going to mute it because it has soundtrack music. Uh, uh, uh, YouTube doesn't like that because you're going to have to seek the permission and this and this, and they end up, uh, sort of limiting the views on the video. So what I'm gonna do, I'll provide the link later on, but I'm gonna play the clip silently. So, so let's just take a look at this here. Let me share it with you first, then I'm sure you're gonna get an idea exactly just by looking at this picture. Uh, the picture, what's going on, will give you an idea of what's going on here. So, all right, let me play it here for you. There we go. I'm sorry again for the sound, it's not going to be bad. That's manure, by the way, they dump in. Uh, so Brussels is chaotic, right? That's the manure right there. So rightly, the European Commissioner Ursula von der Leyen, the corrupted one, she's thinking she's above the law. First of all, she wasn't elected, and second, just acting as the whim of whatever America wants. No, shouldn't be. It should be what the European citizens want. Okay, I'm gonna stop this right there. And, uh, there we go. Uh, so the idea is, uh, the, the— and this is what leads me to talk about the, the, the fundamental question: is the European demise near? Well, of course mainstream media ain't gonna be addressing this, because if you start addressing this— you meaning the mainstream media, you're going to have to provide the justifications. And once you provide the justifications, it becomes clear as to why the EU needs to disintegrate. So, so, because the concerns now about the future stability are rising due to economic stagnation— look no further at Germany and France— at the geopolitical irrelevance of Europe, you know, You know, on the other hand, you look at on the other side of the, of the world. I'm referring to the China technology, technological advances. You know, you're looking at also in Europe, the severe population decline. You look at the post-Brexit economic fallout now that France is calling for Frexit, leaving the EU. So All this, it's leading— it's already leading to some sort of fragmentation of the institution. And once you have a fragmented institution, you can, you can keep putting Band-Aid on it, but ain't gonna solve the issue. So, and that's where it's gonna lead into the fading of its influence despite the effort sort of to boost its relevancy. It's not gonna work. It's because when you think about this relevancy, uh, for Europe, what is going to have to depend on? It's going to have to depend on technology, it's going to have to depend on energy, access to energy, especially cheap one. It's going to have to depend on a political will, which none of those the Europeans have as a unit. You know, single countries will be okay. So, and I'm not even talking about the trading bloc, the EU, which is becoming less and less relevant on the global stage vis-à-vis ASEAN, BRICS, the Global South, and what have you. So basically where this, you know, how this is came about, and this is where that leaked information about Poland, Austria, Hungary, you know, but even with all those countries might be just talking, it's in action that you find out. I'll give the example of the Prime Minister of Hungary, Mr. Viktor Orbán. Well, it's nice what you're saying, but it's in action that you're going to find out if you truly demonstrate leadership. Start the paperwork for getting out of the EU. As a matter of fact, Article 50 of the EU allows you to start the process for getting out of the EU altogether. So, and this is again where you have to understand the big picture. I see the same argument for Italy. Italy at some point was playing a role in Europe's economy. Not anymore. That was when it was on its own. So Poland, we see where Poland is going right now. This is why there are a lot of efforts to undermine Poland. Why? You want to get it— you want to get Europe, uh, Poland into direct confrontation with the Russians. For a reason. So, so what these massive demonstrations in Europe are all about, because you need to understand exactly what is going on. It looks like a war zone if you ask me. And again, I have family live in Europe, so you kind of ask the questions of what's going on. So, and, and, and it behooves us to ask the question. So the recent massive protest, what are they about? You know, well, of course, when you, you look at this, it's not a single issue because I am going to take you back to Serbia's anti-corruption movement, that one way back, you know, way back. I'm referring to November 2024. I remember this. It's because the, the, the whole idea of the, the, uh, the demonstrations that took place where 15 people died, student-led demonstrations And that spread to almost 400 towns with massive rallies, up to 100,000 people in some cities like Novi Sad and Belgrade. And of course, the protesters at the time demanded transparency in the what's going on with the government. The same applied to Slovakia at the time. So why? Because Slovakia, the head of Slovakia at the time wanted to some sort of meet, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, for a diplomatic effort to ensure the safety of Slovenia, or the Slovak, that is. So, and of course, Fico's government at that time implemented some sort of changes which people didn't like. Of course, NATO and the EU were pushing against that. So that's when you had about 35,000 to 40,000 participants. Then you have the cross-regional concerns, especially in Southern Europe. So that's where the protests have emerged in response to domestic backsliding, corruption, because the European citizens' money is going to corrupt the Ukraine. That's where you had student-led movements, as I mentioned earlier, Slovenia, Serbia, and Slovakia, and neighboring countries also. Then you add to this the pro-Palestinian demonstrations, you know, and anti-Israeli demonstrations. We all know what the German authorities are doing, like a Gestapo, what they doing to the people who are demonstrating. I remember seeing a picture, and this picture of an elderly, she was 80 years old, and the way she was dealt with by those, you know, Gestapo officers. It wasn't right. It's because shame on those officers. I understand you're doing your job, but when it comes down to what's going on right now, isn't your family also going to be suffering for that? This is why you have— which by the way, mainstream media is not reporting— you have the firefighters in France are joining the farmers. They will never mainstream, we never disclose that to you. They won't want you to know that now you start to have people like firefighters start to think, hey, this is not about just the farmers, it's about our families. This is why when I see images of this, of this officers, I understand you're doing your job, but come on, are you looking at a collective good here? Especially Germany and even in France itself when they deploy in this armed, armed style. Law enforcement, you know, they geared up with gears that is meant to be for the military. We're seeing it here in the US, even our police departments, you know. I understand about the SWAT teams or whatever, but when you see the gear they coming up with, that becomes like, what are we, are we living in a police state here? So, and this is what, when you think now about what the farmers are doing, who by the way we're blocking access to to the parliaments in Brussels. That's what they were doing. That's what the farmers were doing and still doing it. So this whole idea started about in this major recent event when the farmers in tractors sort of blocked the access roads and clashed with the riot police outside the European Parliament in Brussels. And that started on December 18th, still going on. And I'm going to share with you a clip for you to see as I move forward. So, and what are they protesting against? They protesting against the free trade deal with none other than South America. It's known as Mercosur, Mercado del Sur, the Market of the South in Spanish. So, and this has to do with the farmer. This is why the farmer lit bonfires of tires. That's what this this picture is all about. So, and, and hay— they also burned hay and so forth. They threw vegetables at the police, and riot police responded with tear gas, filling surrounding streets with black smoke. You know, yeah, this frustration what the farmers are— I mean, let's be honest about it, can we live without farmers? Yeah, it won't be easy. So you kind of come to appreciate the farmers, the hard life they are leading for us when we go to supermarket and find veggies we buy. You know, I found even— I posted on my, on my X account, I, I posted a clip of these women, okay? The HOA, the homeowners association, which I don't believe in. To those who live in America, you know what I'm talking about. HUA is a fraud. And what they end up doing to this elderly— because she was gardening in her own property, growing veggies— they wanted to ban that for her. An elderly lady, she was like 76 years of age, years old. And that gives you an idea right there. So what the European Parliament is doing, sacrificing the welfare of their own people. And this is why you have now the, the, the protests focusing on the EU plan trade deal with Mercosur, which, by the way, the farmers are saying this will expose us to unfair competition and put further pressure on farm incomes. You remember who did this few years ago? It was the Polish farmers, they pushed against the EU for pushing down the Ukrainian grain, and the Polish farmers said, we are not having it, and rightly so. So let me, let me play the clip for you, because— and this clip I'm going to play, it's from a farmer here in the US, okay, which is a reflection of exactly what is going on. So I— my heart goes to this guy. Because I can only imagine, I can only imagine for him to, to, to just— if you only know how hard it is to sort of live the life of a farmer, you have to understand first of all what are you doing and so forth. And that's just part of how it works. So, so let's take a look at it. And this gives us an example about even Donald Trump, the incompetency of Donald Trump here. Take a listen.

We're just absolutely fucked as farmers, guys. Everything is so fucked, and I do not see anybody surviving this farm crisis that we are in, guys. Like, one of the best corn crops that I have ever raised in my life, and because the tariffs, China will not fucking buy it. And they are the only country in the world other than— well, they are the only country in the world that buys corn. And so now I'm literally just chopping it and blowing it on the fucking ground because it's fucking useless. It's valueless. There's nothing I can fucking do to it. I am going to need government assistance to make it through this fucking crisis until these tariffs end. Look, I've never faced a spoiled crop like this, guys. And this is just fucking heartbreaking to me. I don't know how I'm going to survive. You know, Trump said he fucking loved us farmers, and here I am just blowing my flour crop all over the ground. Hopefully he works a deal out where Antarctica and Mars will start buying this flour and save the farmers.

Yeah, that, that's heartbreaking. Guy almost crying. And, and it's not— it's nothing harder than seeing a grown-up person crying. That's, that's the, the pinnacle of pain. That's usually how, you know, and I'm talking for my country here You know, the incompetent president here, what is he doing? So, so when you see what the European farmers are doing, you can understand, you can understand the arguments. So, and this again, the, the, this, this crisis now that is going on in Europe, particularly in France, you know, they are worried about the prospects of an influx of this so-called cheaper goods. Well, wait a minute, if you were taking care of your country, you won't end up in that situation to begin with. When you are sending the European citizens' tax dollars, send them to corrupted Ukraine, what do you expect? So, and this is why the farmers in Europe, the grievances of the farmer, the farmers go beyond just the deal with Mercosur, because the farmers in Europe are also protesting the European regulations which they say make investments and licensing now even more difficult. So, and this is why you see in the European Union going down and more calls are coming up for the dissolution of the disintegration of the EU, which is about time. So that's why you have now over 10,000 protesters in the European quarters, especially with France and Italy now leading this. The 150 tractors, they are mainly from Italy and France because those two countries deal with agriculture more than Germany does. So, and even now you have the pathetic French president Emmanuel Macron is saying, declaring that, oh, now the agreement cannot be signed because he's aligning with Poland. And I think another country, Hungary, that they are against the Europeans. So this is why France is coordinating with Poland Belgium, Austria, and Ireland to force this postponement of this agreement. Well, wait a minute, if you are to go this way, why not dissolve the EU and let the single countries to decide for their own national interest? You know, that's to me common sense, because the EU as block is not working anymore. And that's my argument. What do you think? In your opinion, and especially for my viewers in Europe, should the EU dissolve? Because here is the thing, this confrontation that's going on right now between the farmers and the law enforcement and countries, what have you, this confrontation, you know, will have a real political impact. So, and that is where you're going to have now voices coming up vociferously for maybe time has come to start the groundwork for disintegration of the EU. So, and that leads me to my next question. And that next question is exactly what I'm referring to here is, are we on the verge of a political and economic collapse of the EU? It is, it is, it's not an easy question and there is no easy answer. And I'm not saying we couldn't— we react emotionally by saying yes, it is time for— it doesn't work that way. The reason being, and this is where some sort of pragmatism comes in, you have to think the big picture because the answer depends on how one will assess these kind of challenges that's going on. So, well, do I say that there is a— there are major challenges as of now? Yes, they are. They do exist. Will this lead to necessarily to a collapse? Not the case. Nobody's denying that the EU is facing— the European Union is facing real pressures. The farmer protests, the political fragmentation, the trade tensions. The, the migration disagreements, of course, the different views about Russia-Ukraine conflict, different views about China. So the blocked— so far, this blocked Mercosur deal or agreement, what it demonstrates, it demonstrates the division that exists between member states of the EU. Because some countries are moving towards more nationalist and anti-EU position. And of course, there are genuine economic reason for that. On the other hand, this kind of tensions are not entirely new to the EU. So the EU as a bloc has weathered some sort of a significant crisis before. Maybe this time will be different. When you look at, for example, as we speak, the European, the, uh, the eurozone debt crisis, the migration that's going, the Brexit. Why do you think Britain pursued the exit of the EU? And by the way, there are mechanisms by which you can leave the EU. Article 50, So, uh, I'm gonna pull it up for you. Leaving the EU under Article 50. So, because I, I read up on it. So, the Article 50, and this is the Treaty of the European Union, provides for the possibility of an EU member state to leave the European Union. And here is where the key: in accordance with its own constitutional requirements. So, so, so far we know the Britain is the only state to have withdrawn from membership of the European Union. So, and this is what I'm saying, if countries like Hungary, Orbán, Viktor Orbán talking about this, Make a damn decision. Make a damn decision and launch the process for withdrawing from the EU if that is what you want, if that is what the people in Hungary want. The same applies to Italy, even though with Giorgia Meloni, I don't know if it has the strength, leadership capabilities to stand up. I was under the impression when she came to power that she's going to take a stand. Turns out not to be the case. And this is again my point. This is what you have to think in terms of how this is going to move forward. So, so there are those who are saying the collapse is unlikely in the near term, not the long term. And that's what I, that's what I see going as well. It's because when you think about the EU, especially from the economic perspective, The integration is very deep. Okay, because you have other states in it, even though the states are not contributing much, because any time I mention the EU, what comes to your mind? Which countries come to your mind? They're only about two that matters: Germany and France. It used to be Italy, not anymore, in my opinion. So, but this is why those kind of states within the EU have some sort of an interdependence when it comes down to trade, when it comes down to investments, when it comes down to supply chain. So in my opinion, the cost of exiting, so, and fragmenting the bloc are very, very steep. So in other words, a country will have to think through before they launch the Article 50 to withdraw from the EU altogether. So, but this is why you're seeing now the far right in Europe coming to power. The people are pushing. They've had enough in Europe. And with the massive corruption that exists, sending their tax dollars to Ukraine, the same argument we have here for us Americans. I wish my fellow Americans will wake up from their slump. Wake up, Americans! Come on, are you that damn blind you can't see what's going on when a president telling you, oh, the prices are lower when they are not? So, and this is where you see, at least in the case for the Europe, and I will talk in another live stream about the case of the United States. So, because here in America you have to address American people in a different tone for them to get it. You know, no offense to my fellow Americans, but some of us are damn slow to understand and realize what's going on. Why are we sending our tax dollars to corrupted Ukraine, to Israel, to Jordan, to Saudi Arabia, to Egypt— to Egypt, not Saudi Arabia, I'm sorry, to Egypt and Jordan. And now we're going to be dealing with Syria. All of a sudden. Why? When we have farmers like the clip I shared with you, they are struggling to make ends meet. So it's no different than Europe. The real risk that exists today in Europe has to do with political polarization, no different than what we have. Of course, Donald Trump is contributing to that. You look at also the economic pressure on the farmers in Europe. And of course the workers, look at in Germany, Volkswagen shut down. In France, unemployment's going up, poverty going up, you know. Then you add the geopolitical tensions, the migration issues, the fiscal policies that are, that are of consequences to the average European citizens. And all this, you put this together, All of this could destabilize an individual member state. This is not about the bloc anymore. This could destabilize an individual member state. So I'm not even talking about the future of the bloc unity on this kind of issues. And this is why I am seeing over the horizon that the major economic downturn that is upon Europe right now, the escalation in Ukraine, the cascading political crisis that exist in multiple countries in Europe, and this in itself could create the conditions for a more serious instability in the old continent. So the realistic outlook moving forward, which, by the way, when I do the analysis for you for 2026, the outlook I will address this, but I'm going to share something with you here. So, so we're not going to be looking at a sudden collapse. It won't happen that way. The more likely scenario will be political turbulence, which we are already seeing. You are looking at the slower decision-making that is taking place, very slow, while the average European citizen is suffering economically speaking. You might see also the European Parliament go as far as reversing certain policies. You might also see some sort of a debate on the parliament floor about the future of the bloc. And that's when you're going to realize that the EU, the European Union as a bloc, is becoming less ambitious, less cohesive, And with ASEAN, with BRICS, with Global South and the future of the global economy in the Far East, it will become irrelevant. And that leads me to my next question after I play this clip for you. Liking this video so far? Don't just be a watcher. Go ahead and hit the like, share, and subscribe button. And don't forget to tap the bell so you will not miss any of my videos or live streams. This way you will be supporting a channel that stands for the truth and objective reporting. The choice is yours. Thanks for your support. The question is, is it time for the European Union to dissolve? Straightforward. I don't know, some will think, oh, that's too much, Dr. O. Sort of too much asking as far as the current conditions. So the question whether it's going to happen suddenly or is going to happen gradually. So the case— there are those in one camp that make the case for the dissolution or disintegration of the European Union. Others make the case for restructuring. So, and I'm going to provide you both sides of the argument and let you decide. Of course, I would like to ask your opinion because your opinion matters to me. That's how we learn. So those who argue that the European Union has become too bureaucratic and distant from its citizens are spot on. It's because the problem with this is that the EU is imposing one-size-fits-all policies, which those will be unsuitable for diverse economies and cultures within Europe. Why? Because if you go that way, you're going to constrain a country's sovereignty, a nation's sovereignty, and that in itself will prioritize the agenda of the elite within Europe, the likes of— you know who she is— evil. I call her the evil lady. So, and by the way, she wasn't even elected, just FYI. She wasn't elected at all. So at some point, the cost of the EU membership, the regulatory burden. So And the argument some other countries are making, we'll be better off to dissolve it. So, and that is part of where that problem, because there are those who are saying, well, wait a minute, we could see the EU's attempt, for example, to integrate vastly different societies within Europe. Yeah, but that is fundamentally flawed. And that, in my opinion, as one who has family in Europe, I traveled to Europe on many occasions. I was just there about, what, 8 months ago or so? And I went to Holland and I went to France and almost made it to Spain. I didn't have enough time for that. Went to Poland, went to— and I saw this approach, this idea of integrating vastly different societies is destined to fall. To fail rather. That's the way I see it. Then there are those who saying, what about the case of reforming, Dr. O? European Union can be reformed. I'm not arguing against that. So, so except that I just don't see it working on a long term because you have now wearing nations. Nations are getting tired because now is creating some sort of benefits for the elite at the expense of the average citizen. And to me, in my opinion, whether it is a government or an institution, if you don't work for the welfare of the constituents you are representing, then what's the point? What's the point? The EU has real flaws, but they argue that disintegration or dissolution of the EU will be economically devastating. What do you think? Well, in your opinion, the dissolution of the EU be economically devastating for other countries? Yes or no? I will greatly appreciate if you can answer in the chat box and I will take a look at it in a minute here. So So this camp, or this particular entities, argue that instead of disintegrating or breaking up the— or dissolution of the EU, you can make the institutions more so-called democratic. Here we go again, bringing decision-making closer to citizens. Well, where was it when the citizens in Europe were against what's going on between Russia and Ukraine? When the citizens of Europe are against what's going on in Gaza. And look what the German law enforcement are doing. Look what France, look what the UK have been doing. It's like a police state disguised as democracy. Where is the, where is the truth into that? You know, facts are facts. You call spade a spade. You call it as you see it. And this is why I don't see this working. Then there is a third camp, and the third camp are arguing for the middle ground. The middle ground perspective, what does it mean? Yes, they argue the EU is in dire need of significant reform to be more responsive governance, which I don't see them achieving that, better protections for workers. And farmers, which is kind of too late. Fair burden sharing, which I don't see this happening because the tax dollars of the European citizens are being wasted. And they argue that this whole disillusion aspects of it will really create more problems. Yeah, they are entitled to their opinion. There might be a reason for that. So, because in my opinion, the way I see it, the answer for something like this— and again, based on my understanding of how things are, you know, I, you know, spend a lot of time in Europe as growing up as a kid, you know, back then when Germany was by itself, France by itself, and I will have to go visit families and exchange the currency from the French franc to the, the German Deutschmark and the Gilda in Holland and so forth. So I remember from back then. So the answer is that reasonable people, we disagree based on different values, especially about sovereignty, about the economic efficiency, about the cultural preservation, about the benefit of integration. So this is the way I see it. And again, I could be right, I could be wrong. So let me see quickly your answer, then I'm gonna move into my conclusion because that's, that's what I have for you here. Oh, oh, Rafael, Rafael, gone. Thank you so much for your super sticker. You wrote, Prof, is it possible that the European leaders in World War I and World War II were as stupid, as dumb as the ones we are witnessing today. I won't, I won't be surprised at that. The way I will use the term, Rafael, and again, nothing, you're entitled to express yourself anyway. I won't use the term stupid, but I will use the term less visionary. They didn't think it through. The reason for that is because they allow the United States to dictate the terms. And we all know where we are now. That's what led to where it is. So, so thank you so much, Rafael, for your super sticker. As always, greatly appreciate your support. Uh, all right, let me see. Uh, oh, John Richard, I'm late for class. No, no worries, no worries, no worries. Now, if you were in my university classroom setting, I will not let you in class after 5 minutes. That's my— that was my rule, by the way, guys. And of course, the students at that time didn't get it. It wasn't about me being— because I was, I was sort of known as too strict. That professor is too strict. And it wasn't about that. I was teaching the students a lesson about time. They didn't get it first, but they did later on. So you are not late. You are not late. Good to see you here. So, all right, let me, let me move on into the conclusion here. So what lies ahead for Europe? You know, it's, it's of course, it's predictability has never been one of the things. The outlook I'm gonna share with you with the community in a few days, those are my own opinion, how I see things moving forward because the, there is never predictability with certainty. This is why, for example, in the intelligence community where I used to work, you know, it was always when you do an assessment and analysis, you always put the probability with certainty, with high probability, medium probability, low probability, and so forth, because there is nothing predictably 100% certain. So what I can do as one who've been through the process and understand, I can sketch for you some sort of plausible scenarios that I see based on the current trajectory. So think about it this way. And we could start from the— I'll start from the reverse, the best-case scenario. And this will be for the EU to recognize the legitimacy of the current grievances by the farmers, by the citizens, by the workers, and so forth. And what it needs to do is to undertake the necessary, significant, and immediate reforms. And that's addressing the farmers' concerns through more flexible agricultural policies. I don't see the European Union, the Parliament, under this evil individuals doing that. And she's not even elected. That is where the concern is. So I don't see them responding to the farmers the right way. And but again, that's just my opinion. So if they do this, then they could also find the middle ground regarding their policies vis-à-vis Russia. It's because they were getting cheap energy from Russia. So, and that is where the problem for Europe. Do you think Russia will go ahead and start, uh, uh, sort of shipping energy to Europe? I don't see how Europe— the Russians can trust now the European So, and this is where you see the political, you know, outcome for this protest, because this protest, this is in the best case scenario, will lead to political change rather than institutional breakdown. So what it means, it means that the EU as bloc will reemerge as much leaner, if you will, more legitimate, if you ask me, and might be in a better position to compete globally, which I don't foresee. Then you go into the middle ground. So this is where the EU will continue on its current pattern of slow adaptation, of compromise. So because some reforms will happen, and others won't. And this is why you're going to see tensions might simmer, but it will, it will not boil over into some sort of a systematic crisis. This is where you're going to see in this scenario, the member states will remain some sort of linked or bound by economic interdependence. Even as they disagree on many issues or major issues for that matter. So, but the progress will be frustrating slow, but the outcome will be that the Union, the EU, will survive. Then you have the fragmentation scenario, which usually I can consider. And why is this important? Because the growing political diversions is going to lead to a multi-speed or tiered EU. What I mean by all this is basically we're in where you're going to have some countries move closer to others, either in bilateral, and at the same time, other countries will drift towards looser association or bilateral agreements. We're not going to do what Brussels telling us what to do. You know, for Hungary, for example, they said, hey, I'm going to go ahead with importing cheap energy from Russia. I don't care whether you like it or not. It's for the welfare of my people, for my country. Italy will say, you know what, I wanted to expand my trade with some other country, let's say Hungary, for example, or whatever. I don't have to— is what you're going to be seeing with this. Except in this scenario, there will be one particular problem, actually two. One of them has to do with the common currency, and the second one has to do with the security, because both of them could face strain. And this is why I'm saying for the dissolution or disintegration of the EU will be better for the single member states. Both politically and financially. And the worst scenario, the crisis scenario, that is, that is gonna be a major shock, severe economic recession, which we're already seeing what's going on in Germany, what's going on in France. I was in Europe, I talked to my family, the economic conditions are dire. They just will not disclose this to Everybody, because the control now, the Ursula, this evil Ursula von der Leyen is doing, they wanted to control the narrative. It's no different than what we're doing here. So, so you're looking at a severe economic recession. You're looking at an escalation in the Ukraine conflict, which, by the way, and again, I don't speak for the European. I don't give a damn. I don't care. They can decide for themselves. What I care about is what my country is doing for sending our tax dollars. I still cannot fathom the logical arguments for this. And this is why my fellow Americans are kind of— well, what are you, blind? You can't see what's going on? You don't need to have a PhD to understand what's going on.

It's simple.

Look at your finances and, and see what the picture is. And for this case, worst case scenario is you're going to have cascading political crisis in multiple countries, not just, not just one. And that in itself will overwhelm the system. When I say system, I'm referring to the EU's ability to respond collectively. That in itself will trigger, in my opinion, a deeper institutional breakdown and potential unraveling leading to disintegration. So, so that's the way I see it. So the way I see near term, 2 to 5 years, probably involves continued some sort of turbulence that's going on. Some reform might take place, but it will be a messy decision making, you know, and the persistent disagreement will continue on trade, geopolitical alignments and what have you. So the longer term, however, will depend heavily on whether the political leaders, if you even call them leaders, they are incompetent. You know, I don't shy away from stating the fact, can credibly address the economic anxieties driving these protests, particularly among farmers and working class. So because voters feel that the EU system isn't working for them and it is time to close the door forever. So what do you think? Make sure you leave me some comments. So I like to read your response about what is going on in Europe. Now with this farmer turbulence? And is it the end? Is it the beginning of the end for the EU? So, all right, once again I want to say thank you to Rafael. Oh my God, you put another super sticker, Rafael! Thank you so much. Socrates was forced to drink poison because he went south on Europe, and this form of government. Plato spent all his life writing against this very form of government. EU will not exist soon. Thank you so much for sharing this, Rafael. This is what I like about our community, you guys contributing to the conversation. You know, this is not about just me talking, you know, because it's a learning process for both of us. It goes both ways. So thank you so much, Rafael, for your Super Sticker and for your contribution to the conversation. And you are absolutely correct about Socrates. Socrates was way back when argue about against the danger of democracy because he argued some 2,000 years ago that, uh, Aristotle— I'm sorry, it wasn't Socrates, it was Aristotle— who argued that democracy can be messy, and it is messy to say the least. Look what's going on in Europe, look what's going on in America with the economic conditions that is. So thank you, Rafael, truly appreciate you for sharing your perspective. Hanging G, you are right about this one. Brussels to reform the Union, unlikely. No commissioners in EU are interested. I see, because they are under the control of the evil Ursula, that is, you know. And again, wasn't even— and by the way, don't ignore the role of the US into all this. We are fueling things behind the scenes. So that's why even I'll go as far as saying maybe that's— that transatlantic relations should end. But again, that's my opinion. I'm just, uh, looking from outside in. Anyway, appreciate you, uh, your support. To those who are not in the know, that I started the funding campaign for my upcoming trip to Asia. So I will greatly appreciate if you feel comfortable enough to support my upcoming Asia trip, I'm gonna put the link for you. We are so far at about 4% of the fundraising campaign. The objective is to reach $10,000, and again, it's going to be a few months from now. We still have a long way to go, but so far you start somewhere. As the saying goes, the journey of a thousand miles starts with the first steps. So So I thank you, I can't thank you enough for your support for this trip. Also for the, uh, channel, for those who wants to support the channel, here is the link if you want to buy me coffee in support of the channel. Here, uh, I'm going to put the link in the chat box. And by the way, uh, some of you who have already supported the channel, I'm going to use that fund that you submitted here for towards the Asia upcoming trip. So, so I'm gonna do this one here. So thank you so much for all this. Anyway, I hope you enjoyed it. Uh, I don't know if I'm gonna do livestream tomorrow or not. If not, to those who celebrate Christmas, I wish you a Merry Christmas, and I look forward to seeing you on the 26th for my conversation with none other than historian and author James Bradley. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, bye-bye.