Europe: Poverty, Economic Stagnation & Political Turmoil! Geopolitical Trends

Hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Excited to be with you as always. I'm your host, Dr. Oualaalou. Uh, interesting topic I'm going to be addressing for you today has to do with what's going on in Europe. Of course, that's been going on since 2021, 2022, but even before that. So what I'm going to be providing you with is my own analysis about where Europe is headed. And I am going to also conclude this live stream with a second part of the analysis that pertains to what's going on between Europe and Russia, and something you have to be aware of. So in addition to that, I'm going to be doing geography and of course history of all this. So, but before I'll do this Let me say hi to our wonderful, uh, uh, and as Truth Seeker said, inquisitive community. So let me see who's here. Adam Rocco, good to see you, and salaam to you as well. Willie Holman, Liang, Truth Seeker, here you are. So this is what you write, uh, good morning our inquisitive community. It is indeed. Francis Tango, good to see you. Muhammad Mazharuddin, good to see you. Xiao Yang, Good to see you as always. Uh, Bully, good to see you. And, uh, oh, Bully, you said invite Jayant Bhandari. I will, I will in due time. It's just I have to keep up with some other topics, but I will, I will do that. So, uh, Say It Like It Is, good to see you as always. Marco, good to see you. And Catherine, good to see you as well. So, all right, let me get in into our, our— before I'll do our topic, I have some, uh, uh, uh, housekeeping items. Remember to join me, uh, let me get the pictures here for you so you know. Remember to join me this coming Saturday, uh, for my conversation with, with Carl Zad. I had just this the picture, that's not what I'm going to be addressing with Carl Zad this coming Saturday on the 25th at 0 at, uh, 19:30 Central Standard Time. So, so I will post it for you and keep you informed. So I look forward to my conversation with Carl as always. And second one, it has to do with my upcoming conversation on the 28th, which will be next Tuesday at 09:30 Central Standard Time with none other than James Bradley. We're gonna do a second part or part 2 of the conversation we had last time. I look forward to that. There are some interesting topics we're gonna be covering. And the third one, I am just making arrangements with my two dear friends, Ina Tangan and Dr. Warwick Pao. So we haven't confirmed the dates yet, but I will let you know as soon as I get a confirmation. So, uh, today I'm gonna do 3 headlines for you before I'll jump in into talking about Europe. So I'll start with the first one, with Canada and Israel. So apparently that Israel is calling on Canada to reverse its intention to arrest Netanyahu. Uh, as a matter of fact, I did put yesterday, uh, uh, uh, survey for you, uh, to see what your response will be. And let me go back to it and see. What you guys did. Uh, so I asked the question, will Ottawa oblige? In other words, will Canada bow to Israeli, uh, pressure, uh, for reversing its intention to arrest Netanyahu? 49% of you said yes, 42% of you said no, and 9% said don't know. Uh, it's a very, very tricky, uh, it's a tricky one to say the least. It is unlikely that Canada will take a stand on this, in my opinion, knowing how things work. Most likely Canada will bow to the pressures for not to arrest Netanyahu if he ever makes it to Canada. That's my opinion. So I will have to agree with the 49% who voted for this one. And speaking of, of, uh, of Israel, it was a, uh, an article today by the Haaretz, uh, very like Haaretz does provide some sort of a good assessment. If you ever get a chance to read the Haaretz, uh, publications, it's worth reading. So, and here is what the writer stated, and I'm gonna share a picture with you right here. This is an aerial, uh, uh, uh, photo, photo of the demonstrations going on in Israel. So, so Israel basically is facing an internal catastrophe that Netanyahu calls salvation. And this was the— in analysis published, uh, in The Haaretz, uh, by a political analyst, his name is Zevi Barrow. He argues that Israel, which destroyed the Gaza Strip, itself has suffered now, and meaning Israel, an internal collapse which can be called the Israeli Nakba from within, to those who know the history of the, the, uh, the Palestinian Nakba that happened back then. So, so it's, it's a spot on, and I can see why there are a lot of turmoils going on inside Israel regarding Netanyahu's policy. And the last one I'm going to share with you has to do with Donald Trump. This is the demonstrations in Washington, DC, under what's called No Kings. Uh, now this one, why is this important? It is important because, uh, if you understand exactly what's going on within American system, which usually the media is not reporting on There is a lot of— I'm gonna lower the screen here. There's a lot of turmoil going on inside the United States. And this basically was an analysis. It was written by Stephen Broussard, which basically I couldn't agree more with the assessments, is that America states the current state of affairs after the arrival of Trump, 9 months now, into the presidency. And there are some 5 areas or 6 areas the, the author, uh, described which really reflect the current conditions, uh, that Trump's policies have undermined the foundation of the United States. So I'm going to share the 5, uh, topics with you quickly here, uh, just to highlight to you. The first one is the collapse of the judicial independence in America. In other words, the judicial system is becoming corrupted, and it has been corrupted, including the Supreme Court. Second is the weakening of the economy. American economy is, is getting weaker. So the media is not going to disclose the truth, and I'm not going to go to the details, just to highlight to you the key. The third one has to do with the migration in America, because if you know for us Americans. We all came from somewhere. You know, there is no— just because you're born here doesn't mean— we all came from somewhere. So the end of the model for America is under now, under Donald Trump's policies regarding immigration. The fourth issue has to do with the health system in America, which is on the brink of collapse. Yeah, because the cost You know, it's almost like you cannot afford to get sick in America. So the health system. And the fifth one, it has to do, which is very crucial, has to do with the freedom of expression and academic freedom that are under attack. As you all know, now the Pentagon is arguing that for the journalists cannot publish anything without the approval of the Pentagon, which means they have to control the information. We all experienced it here on this platform here. You, you all know how it is. It's, uh, I'm not saying something that is not very, very clear to you. So anyway, I just wanted to share these headlines with you before I'll dive into my analysis about Europe. So let's talk about the collapse in Europe. So I'm going to be sharing By the way, I'm going to be sharing some sad images of poverty in England, for example, and even this one here in the United States. So, uh, uh, so let us have some compassion for those individuals that spending or sleeping in the streets. It's because I, I can't fathom that we don't even know what, what their story is, how they end up where they end up. But I also have to look at the system that allow for such things to happen. So, so this is what I'm going to be addressing today. I'm going to highlight 3 main countries: France, Germany, and UK. I'm not going to talk about Italy much because I, I don't know, Italy matters in European economy? You decide. But in any event, suffice it to say that this is what I'm gonna be focusing on, on the on the Europeans, the Germans, and the, the French, Germany, and the UK. So, so where do we start? Then I'll do the geography and history for you. So, so let me start first of all with a brief description, not a description, but rather an assessment as to where Europe— why Europe, of course, been facing challenges since the expansion of NATO eastward towards Russia's doorsteps with what we all know as the military operations of Russia inside Ukraine. So, so Europe faces sort of a multifaceted crisis, and that's not limited to only economy. You— it's— this crisis is characterized by, uh, what am I to use the term, sluggish economy because the, the growth is going down. You have a rising poverty across Europe, mainly in England. You have a political fragmentation and breakdown. I even go as far as use the term paralysis. So, and you have the key one, that is a strategic dependency on the United States. We are dragging Europe down the drains. Because we want to. So, and this is when you see where Europe is today. Major economies like Germany, so, and France are experiencing stagnation. The media is not going to disclose the details of it. I was in France a few months ago and I saw, I could tell, because if I am to compare my recent visit to France in comparison to 15 years ago, and I have family lives in, in Paris, and, and Toulouse and other parts of France. You know, a big, big change, you know, doesn't take genius to figure it out or see. So this experience, this stagnation and contractions of the economy— you look at, for example, the UK is grappling with the rising poverty. And this is again where those images comes in. This is from the UK, and I'm going to provide you the link of the institutions that disclosed this information. As sad as it is, it's a sad— it's a heartbroken— is to see people sleeping in the street. This is in the UK. So the level of poverty in UK is affecting millions, particularly the children. So, so this is where you look at At the same time, Europe is grappling with the geopolitical realignments because they don't know what to do and they can't free themselves from the shackles of the United States. So, and you also add to this the aging demographics within Europe, the fiscal constraints that exist, and of course the rise of the populist movements As a matter of fact, there is one major event in England itself. You know, people are fed up with the two Labour and Conservative parties in England. It's no different than what we have here in the US. You got two parties, the Republicans and Democrats, controlling the process. It's the same thing we are witnessing in, uh, we are witnessing in England, in the UK right now. So So of course Europe is still stable to a degree, still considered— I won't consider it this wealthy, well, but it is comfortable enough compared to other parts of the world. But it is undergoing a critical— and I use the term very concisely— critical period of adjustments. Which direction is going to go remains to be seen. But so far I'm not seeing good signs because what Europe says versus what it does, it doesn't add up. Here is what Europe wants. It wants greater autonomy from the United States. That's what they say. But are they taking the initiative to do so? No. How is Europe managing its internal divisions? And if I am to add one major thing is how Europe can compete with China. So, and this is again what I'm going to be breaking down for you, uh, with the examples of the three countries. But first, let's do some geography. I'm gonna share the screen with you here. I give credit to World Atlas, but I'm not going to be using this particular map this time around, and the reason being because the— this map, the, the borderlines are a little bit confusing here, so I'm going to use a different map. Suffice it to say, I just wanted to show you this one here first, uh, before I'll, uh, I'll use another one. And the other one is a political map right here. This is the one I'm going to use, uh, for, for the time being. So now, if we are to think about Europe, Europe Geography is defined by its position as a western peninsula of Euro-Asia. So, and Europe is bordered by the Arctic, the Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea, and the large northern plains, which are separated from the southern mountains and highland regions by ranges like, for example, the Alps, to those who are familiar with France and, and the borders with Italy, and the Pyrenees. Europe is characterized by varied landscapes. It has long coastlines, numerous peninsulas, especially in the south, and major rivers like the Danube, which contribute to its diverse climates and historical developments. So one thing that I need you to know about Europe It is the second smallest continent by area and forms some sort of the waste, uh, the westernmost peninsula of the Euro-Asian landmass, landmass that is. There are other key factors about geography of Europe that you need to know. You take, for example, the Vatican. The Vatican, which is considered Europe's smallest country Yes, the Vatican is a state country, for those who do not know. A lot of people do not know that when you think about the Vatican, that is an entity— no, yeah, it is an entity, but is a small state entity or city-state. So, so the Vatican is a sovereign state. It has its own— and by the way, Vatican doesn't pay any taxes whatsoever. And it doesn't have any army, but its own army is from Switzerland. There's Swiss Army that are managing that. So officially known as the Vatican City-State, the smallest independent state in the world, and very, very influential, by the way, behind the scenes. And it, and it was established— does anybody know what year the Vatican was established? Let me see in the chat box if you happen to know. Because it was established officially as a sovereign state, city-state. Does anybody know what year was it established? That's correct, Taiwan. Still, it's called the Swiss Guard, who's the one managing the security of the Vatican. But do you know what year it was established? Let me see in the— King George visited Vatican now. That's correct. Let me see what year in, uh, if you come across it, if you happen to know. Uh, okay, I don't see it. Oh, actually, Free Speech, Free Speech, you got it, you got it. It was 1929. Indeed, it was 1929 when the Vatican was established, and it was established by the Lateran Treaty between the Holy City and the Holy See and Italy. And this treaty sort of recognized the Vatican City as a sovereign and independent territory, allowing the Pope full authority over it. And as a matter of fact, the Pope not only has the authority over that, but he has over political influence as well around the world, just FYI. Another facts about Europe when it comes down to geography Germany is Europe's largest country by population. And as I mentioned earlier, Europe has the highest point, which is Mount Elbrus, which is in the European part of Russia. Europe has the lowest point, which is in the Caspian Sea bordering Russia. Europe's highest point is Mount Blanc which is in France and Italy. And Europe's lowest point is Limenfjord, which is in Denmark. So this is what I need you to understand about, uh, about Europe. So geography, that is. So let's talk briefly about the history, and I'm going to jump into my analysis about Europe. So Europe When you think about the history of Europe, if you think about it, you have to go even before prehistoric times with the emergence of the Homo sapiens, which is the early man, the appearance of man and Europeans, which started roughly around 40,000 years ago. This is usually when the Homo sapiens start to emerge. The early inhabitants of Europe, which were during the Paleolithic Age, that's where the first one appears. And this was in an effort, in an effort for them to survive. And what they end up doing is they grouped into some sort of tribes, into small societies, like, like a small bands, if I may use the term. And that's where they learn about hunting and, and, and figuring out, uh, ways of some, some low-flying helicopter moving by. So, but when you think about Europe, you know, and I'm gonna start immediately from the 8th century BC. Why is this important? It's because it's during this time when Greece began to emerge from the Dark Ages. I recall when I went to Athens in 2009, I had some time off and I decided to travel, travel to Athens to visit, to see what it's like. And I could see the remnant of the historical facts about the Roman existence and the Greek sort of historical records there. So, so a Greek or classical Greek culture had a powerful influence on the Roman Empire. This is what's important to understand, which carried the version of it in many other parts of the Mediterranean region. Once again, when you look at the map of Europe, you have to go— you look at the, the, uh, the Mediterranean areas. This is where the influence of the Greek, uh, civilization or culture was on the Mediterranean region. And of course, it has also influenced in Northern Europe. So suffice it to say, historical facts, that is, the Greek culture provided the foundation to a degree of modern Western culture. There is another fact to that, which Western culture also learned from the Arab, or the golden age of the Arab culture or Arab civilizations. Because remember, who started mathematics or algorithm? Al-Khwarizmi. Who started medicine? Who started astronomy, geography? Those were Arabs and Persians scholars. So the Europeans learned from that as well. So of the great civilizations to develop in Europe like I mentioned earlier, is the Roman Empire, which certainly has the most lasting influence. Why? Because it spanned over 500 years of innovations at that time, and it changed the structure of the European landscape and of course had a profound, uh, lasting influence on the developments of modern agriculture, language, law, and religion, of course. So that's what's, uh, so of course after its collapse, the collapse of the Roman Empire, now the Eastern Roman Empire survived, which was between 285 and 1450. I have a picture of an old picture here of the Roman, uh, sort of structures back then. There is another one here from the emperor, Roman emperor at that time. I don't remember, uh, which one wasn't Caesar. I, I couldn't tell. I couldn't tell because there was no record mentioned on the picture in itself. So suffice it to say that, uh, after the collapse, uh, who became after that? Became the Byzantine Empire. So in Western Europe, a wide series of tribe and tribal alliances sort of moved into possession of power. You start to have an internal, uh, struggle for power. And where those came from? It came from the remnant of the Roman Empire. And that's where you started to see the emergence of small kingdoms, because that's very, very important. And of course, from that point forward, the geography of Western Europe was about to change forever. So when we think about the kingdoms, the first kingdom you have to think about is the Kingdom of Franks. It's spelled F-R-A-N-K-S, because it's important to understand that, because that's when the Kingdom of France emerged from. But it first started with the, the, uh, the Kingdom of Franks, which was a southern European territory. This one was inhabited and ruled by the Franks. So they will evolve into what became known as the Kingdom of France, and as part of it, it will morph into the Holy Roman Empire, which is a forerunner of the German as we know it today. This is why you need to understand that link between the tensions that existed between, for example, Spain and France, because they all seek the— sought the support of the, the, the, the, the Dutch and the Germans at that time. So then after this, you had the Anglo-Saxons soon crossed what is now called the English Channel, which is the southern part of Britain. Once again, you look at the map here, you look at Britain, it's right— I'm pointing at it with my cursor, but you won't see it— is the southern part of the UK. That is where it, uh, sort of crossed into and established a series of kingdoms that will eventually develop into what was known as into Kingdom of England. And this was by, uh, 927 AD. So a century later, the kingdoms of Poland— yeah, Poland had a kingdom— and Hungary will also take shape within Europe, because that's what it was known at that time. Of course, we can't talk about all this without talking about the Vikings. Because the Viking Age in Northern Europe and Scandinavia also spanned the late 8th through the mid-13th century. And once again, I recall when I went to Denmark— I went to Denmark, Sweden, and Finland back then— and I could see some, you know, art articles of the civilizations of the Vikings. In, in all, in all those three countries. So with little interest in land acquisitions, the Scandinavians, which they never looked for into that, Vikings aggressively explored Europe for trade. That was the main driving force for them. So the Vikings also reached Iceland, Greenland, Newfoundland and Anatolia, which is— Anatolia is in Turkey, as you may know. Then you have the Normans. The Normans were the Viking people. There was the other name for it. Most of the common name is the Vikings, but also they are known as the Normans. So, and how they gave their name to Normandy. Which is, you know, where Normandy is, is in northern France. And that's initially emerging in the first half of the 10th century. So why is this important? It's because they had a major impact on, on certain parts of Europe. So you're looking at the Norman conquest of England to southern Italy and Sicily. Those were based on the Viking people, or the Norman, as they call them. And by the end of the 15th century, great powers emerged in Europe. We're talking about England, we're talking about France, we're talking about the Netherlands, and we're talking about Portugal and Spain. Germany wasn't there at that time. So those played some sort of a predominant role in the global affairs at that time, from the 15th century onward, especially after the beginning of the colonialism era, because those countries played a major role, especially when you consider what they have done in Europe and we have done in both North and South America and of course certain parts of Asia. So the European colonial period started, which is By the way, from the 15th century all the way— 1500, rather— to the 1900s. And that was the era of the European powers. It's because the colonies were established in Asia, in Africa, and in the Americans. The Americas, both North and South. And this is when you realize, between the 16th century And the 20th century, European nations, the ones that played a role in shaping the global trajectory, political one that is, and economic one back then, at various times controlled the Americas, North and South. They controlled most of Africa and of course portions of Asia. I mean, just go to Indonesia, go to Malaysia, go to China, certain parts of China. And you see, so what happened after this time? People start to crave some sort of freedom. This is where you have— and didn't happen just in Africa or Asia, it's around the world. And during the European colonial era began to fall apart, specifically the British Empire, which we all know the atrocities the British have committed in different parts of the world. I always mention two main things still till today, is that Britain stole gold from India and from Venezuela, and they need to return that gold to the rightful owners, meaning gold goes back to India and the other one goes back to Venezuela. So, so the first genuinely global empire began to lose its power in Africa. India and much of the West Asia or Middle East, and they soon crumbled away. This is the British Empire that collapsed. So also damaging to the European continent was the two main wars, World War I and World War II. And by the way, in this analysis, I'm going to be talking about, between brackets, World War III and what it means. Because they were largely focused upon Europe, those two wars, the previous one, and the enormous cost of both wars greatly, really greatly, contributed to a decline in Western European dominance in world affairs. This is what you're seeing today. That's why I use the title "Europeans' Political and Economic Collapse." So where the difference you have little bit left is in the eastern part of European countries, you know, but even there some of them have not fully recovered from that collapse. So, and after, of course, and I'm taking you back to today, after the fall of the Berlin Wall, which came down on November 9th, 1989, uh, and after, of course, the fall of the Soviet Union In 1991, Europe certainly changed, some say for the better. I don't know about that. What do you think? Suffice it to say, European culture and factions soon integrated, and that's where the Council of Europe was formed and the European Union came, blossoms in Western Europe, which of course we pushed for it from behind the scenes. And I know this for a fact. The same thing we pushed for the euro currency because we want them to depend on the dollar. So today, some, some record, historical records said it is safe to say that, uh, Europe is a major economic and political center of power. I have to dispute that. It is an economic, it is a political major player, but I will not say is the center of power. So because I look at what's coming with BRICS, I look at what's coming in Asia economically, there is no way Europe can compete with that. And I'm going to mention something about that as I move forward. As for its people, European people, they are, they are innovative, as we all know. They are sort of to a degree optimistic. But they are now sort of have crumbled under the economic pressures of what's going on with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but also what the US is doing to Europe itself. So yeah, European, they say they are resilient group that could change the world for the better. I don't see how. If they couldn't free themselves from the shackles of the United States, I don't see how they're going to do that. So, and that's exactly where I end my history here, and I'm going to move into the analysis part about certain— Liking this video so far? Don't just be a watcher, go ahead and hit the like, share, and subscribe button, and don't forget to tap the bell so you will not miss any of my videos or live streams. This way, you will be supporting a channel that stands for the truth and objective reporting. The choice is yours. Thanks for your support. Now let's talk about what Europe is facing, the challenges that it has been, uh, sorry. What it has been facing. Of course, some say the collapse is inevitable, some say, well, it's an overstated term, but I don't, because I don't see Europe moving in the right direction to begin with. So I'm going to talk about three factors here: economic, political, and structural. So let's start with the economic, uh, uh, situation here for Europe. Europe's economies are mixed The growth has stagnated completely, completely. You take, for example, Germany, and some other northern economies have struggled more recently. The southern part and Eastern European countries have some sort of reverse outcome, grown faster. Why is that? It's because some of these countries have joined China economically. Or enter into some ventures, like for example, uh, Hungary. So inflation, however, in Europe still a major issue, even though the stats coming out of Europe saying, oh, it's leveled up. It is not. And unemployment remains relatively very, very high in comparison to what it was, uh, let's say a decade ago. Of course, Europeans are going to say, oh, by historical standard, it's relatively low. They're going to have to show that. But that's not the truth. So the eurozone economy is some sort of— I'm not denying it is functioning to a degree, but it's not booming as we might expect. On the political front, Europe is experiencing now some sort of literally genuine fragmentation, politically speaking, and the tensions that exist from within. How can you tell? Is by the rise of the far right and the populist parties that have gained ground in several countries. Like I mentioned recently, the demonstrations that's taking place inside England, It's a reflection of that because most of, uh, now the conversation is about what was going on with the European policies. Well, their policies have to do now with wanting to support this Ukraine nonsense stuff, because it's nonsense. Ukraine, we all know, is, is, is a failed state, is a corrupted state. There is no way they're going to defeat Russia or or even Europe for that matter, or NATO for that matter. But some governments inside Europe have questioned now, for example, the EU, the European Union's orthodoxy on a fiscal policy, because the finances of it on the structural level, Europe faces real long-term issues. One of them has to do with the aging population. Second one has to do with the energy transition costs, you know, competition with the US and China, and question of course about the EU's institutional effectiveness. All this push us into asking the right questions. Can Europe survive all this chall— challenges that that is going on. So, and once again, there are those who say, oh, it's not collapsing, we shouldn't even be using the term. No, we should, we should. It's because that is where it's leading into, because Europe is not able to manage the geopolitical shifts, the demographic changes, the internal political fragmentation and disagreements that's taking place. The high cost for an average European citizens and the rise of the poverty level. So let's start with the UK, and I'm going to show you this image once again. This image here, this one is about 25% of kids live in poverty in the city with the most millionaires. Business Insider. More homeless people also are emerging within the scene in the UK. Yeah, it's no different than what we have here in the United States. This picture is from New York City. More homeless people live in New York City than any other city in the country. So, and again, when you see what's leading to all this, and since we are talking about Europe, And I'm gonna provide you a link where you can take a look at this later on if you want to read it, so you see it with your own, with your own eyes, with the recent stats as of 2025, 2024, 2025. So, so the data confirmed that it is a serious problems. So, and the evidence shows it. So you're looking now, we're still talking about the UK. More than 1 in 5 people in the UK, which is around 14.3 million people, are living in poverty. That include 2 in 10 adults and 3 in 10 children. And this according to, uh, Joseph Rowntree Foundation. I'm going to put the link for you so you can, uh, you can see it or read it for yourself. And this was using different measurements. So nearly 1 in 4 people, that means 24%, are now judged to be in poverty in the UK, which represents about 2.1 million people that would be living in poverty if rates had remained. So, and the rising trend— here is where the concern is— rising trend is that more than a third of all children, that means 36%, were in poverty in 2023, which is almost 5% point increase since 2020, and the highest of any group. And once again, this stats is provided by a Social Metrics Commission, and I'm going to provide you the link for you to see that with your own eyes. Facts, numbers do not lie. Here is where again my big concern, where I see things going. The forecast was what's coming. We're talking about 2030, we're talking about 2026, 2026, 2029, 2030. So forecast predict poverty rate will rise further, with poverty, relative poverty, increasing from 22% in this year to 23% in 2029, and children poverty rising from 29% to 32% over the same period. In other words, from 2025 to 2029, we're looking only about 4 years from now, 3 and a half or so. And this according to the UK Parliament, and here is the link. For you to read it. Why is all this happening? Because people cannot afford in the UK. So poverty in the UK is deepening, and the deeper you look, the faster it is rising. So people in poverty in UK are moving further and further below the poverty line. So And you ask yourself, who is most affected by this? Well, you look at the working age adults and children living in families where nobody works. So also people in a rented accommodation, families with 3 or more children, people with disabilities, and households from the likes of Bangladesh and Pakistan background have the highest poverty rate. This, once again, I found it in the House of Commons library. Let me put the link for you. This way you know we talking with facts here, and this is what research is all about. Children in working families are particularly affected Over two-thirds of children in poverty lived in a working family, and that's the big issue. So, and this is again why you are seeing now a political earthquake in Britain, and this image reflects that one. That's exactly why. Why? Because the political landscape, landscape in Britain appears to be undergoing profound transformation. It's equated to a political earthquake. That's the only way I can term it. So opinion polls released successively during this period are to be believed. Why? Because it will have repercussions on what's going on in Britain in addition to anxious European neighbors. The countries. So the major political British parties held their annual conferences. That's what that, that, that, uh, picture is after the annual, uh, conferences were held within the framework of their some sort of usual political tradition. However, what just happened is that these conferences, particularly the annual ones with the ruling Labour Party and the Conservative Party. So this led to shadow government and did not change— all this didn't change the, the general mood of the British voters, which suggests now a major shift away from those traditional parties. In fact, the leader of the far-right Reform Party, Nigel Farage, did not hesitate to seize the opportunity. He never misses that opportunity. So here is— by the way, it was Nigel Farage who led the pro-Brexit, uh, campaign and became Brexit star when Britain left the EU. So it was the one that he did that. This is to highlight to you where things are going in the UK. Okay, let's move to Germany, and we're going to talk about what this sort of chancellor is doing. It's just another bonehead. A lot of people had hopes for him. Turns out to be meet the new boss as the old boss. Germany is facing, or has been facing and continue to face, significant economic difficulties moving forward. So because one fact that media does not want to disclose openly is that Germany is in a recession. So we soon going to be in one here in the US. So now Germans themselves have been actively protesting against the political decisions and the rising of costs, living standards, by the way. So you're looking at extremism protests in early 2025, which means the beginning of this year. Hundreds of thousands of people rallied across Germany. Why? To demonstrate, because the economic conditions are leading to some directions that average German is not able to afford. Energy policy protests because the cost of energy skyrocketed. And even with that, you have the even pro-Palestinian demonstrations. Of course, after what, what took place with, with the Israeli, uh, full-scale war in reaction to October 7th. So, but what the government in Germany end up doing is coming down on those protests in support of Palestine. So, so Germany's economic troubles are very real, to say the least, and quite severe, if I may add. And yet the media is refusing to do that. So I'm going to provide you some numbers. Germany, or German economy, uh, contracted in 2024 by about 0.2 It's the second consecutive year of decline after shrinking 0.3% in 2023. So making Germany the only G7, the Group of Seven economy, projected the country, the another contract, contract rather, in 2024 and 2025. So why is this? You look at the manufacturing, for example, crisis. Manufacturing in Germany has struggled significantly. Why? The purchasing power. They couldn't afford. When you look at the, uh, uh, uh, Purchasing Manager Index, 40.6 in September 2024, which represents 27%— the 27th consecutive month of contraction. That's bad. The second worst globally after Myanmar. So you look at companies, major ones like Volkswagen, so have been threatened to close German factories. So that's just a small example. The latest outlook is even worse. Most recently, German government slashed its growth forecast for 2025, for this year, by 0.3%. Of course, they have to be moderate about the numbers. If I am to guess, and I am not an economist, but I know how governments word this kind of stuff, it probably will be the double or the triple of this number. So this is what the economic minister, economy minister Robert Habeck saying, oh, the diagnosis is serious and that Germany is stuck in stagnation. So the political aspects of it is even worse. Why? Because uncertainty usually compounds the problems. And Germany, with its political uncertainty from a government coalition collapse, which was, by the way, in '24, that's why Olaf Scholz moved on, to geopolitical tensions that exist because Germany wanted to push for more shipping arms to Ukraine and wanted to fight the Russians and so forth. All this is causing businesses and consumers to hold back on spending and investment, leading to the downfall of the German economy. So the German economy problem appears to be structural, in my opinion. So, and this cannot be resolved overnight. There is no way. There is no way. Second country is France. We're gonna touch on France here. Uh, this is Emmanuel Macron. I don't have a single picture of him, but Germany— I mean, France, I'm sorry. France is in a recession also. Yeah, and growth is going down because France has been facing some sort of economic headwind, and the situation is getting even worse. I was there a few months when I took Michael, uh, to Europe, to France, and, and, uh, of course he's not going to know what to look for. I was able to see. So France also experienced contraction. France economy contracted by about 1.1%. Of course they're going to give the almost similar numbers to Germany. So, and that's down from 1.4%. So however, the concerning is because this now gives an idea about how the, the, the end of this year is going to be economically speaking. And when we're looking forward to what's going to be is you're looking at a weak, very, very weak growth outlook for France. France real GDP is only going to grow by 0.5. We're talking about 0.5 in this year. That's nothing. That's, that's a meager one. So, so this is, this is what's moving forward in France. France also has the problems of its government and the policies they embark on. You have the budget crisis and the political turmoil that exists. As you may know, the new French prime minister, uh, that was elected resigned after 2 months or so because of the budget issue. So as a matter of fact, a certain, uh, like Moody's, Moody's, which is— does the, the assessments of the economy of, uh, is, is downgraded now France credit rating to, uh, uh, AA3. Why? Because the political fragmentation that exists. So is there any recovery coming in 2026? It's unlikely. So France will continue to struggle and its economy will even go worse. And even it's going to go into more political paralysis. So it's worse than Germany, by the way. So, and this paved the way for us to think about what lies ahead for Europe. So I'm going to share one picture here with you that I'll give credit to Statista. You look at Europe, look at the dependency of Europe on China. But what's important about this, especially this is from the area of rare earth elements, like I mentioned to you, I'm going to be releasing an analysis for you this weekend. Be on lookout for that. And what's interesting about this, look at the first two countries, China and Russia, but look at the third is Malaysia. Now you see, and I mentioned that to you yesterday, why the US reached out to Malaysia regarding the rare earth elements. I wonder what Malaysia is going to do. Well, Europe depends on those three countries right here. You look at the numbers, speaks for themselves. And this is what the problem that lies ahead for Europe. And there are several because they are interconnected. So So you look at, for example, the short-term outlook. Most European economies will likely experience more sluggish economy moving forward in 2026. So the eurozone as a whole is expected to, to stagnate. There is no growth. There is no growth. And even if there is a growth, the way I see it, will not exceed 1%. And that, and it's— it might not even reach 1%. It might be about 0.6, 0.6 or 0.7. That's the only way I see it. You look at also the consumer confidence in the European economy is going to even get weaker. The business investments is going to be stagnant or going down. And the fiscal policy, especially with European now moving into the digital— you know why? Because they wanted to control the consumers. There is a fear regarding the digitization of the, of, of the monetary aspects of it, because it gives the government a, a better way of controlling expenditure. Not for the betterment of the people, but against them. And I didn't mention, by the way, inflation. Of course, most of the reports coming out of European think tanks is going to say, oh, it's moderate, it's going to be moderate, and it's going to remain flat, whatever, which is not true. I have family who live in Europe. I talk to them, I ask them. When I was in Europe, I went to supermarkets and saw with my own eyes where the prices— and compared to the US. And the worst of them all is energy, because energy will remain a vulnerability for Europe. Europe was getting cheap energy from Russia. We are going to cut off gas deliveries to Europe. So this is why you are seeing The United States want to get in, into Africa. That's not for the heck of it. Then you add to all this the geopolitical reorientation of Europe, if there is one to begin with. So Europe, some sort of trying to figure out if they can shift their relationship with Russia. And of course, increasing their relations or competing, uh, uh, uh, uh, relations with China and the US. They stand no chance. They might with the US, but against China, they stand no chance. So, so, and this is why when you look at what the US is doing structurally to Europe, is we wanted to ensure that they stay flat. We don't want them to move up. We don't want them to get closer to China either. So this is part of the problem of why the political fragmentation and why you are seeing the far right in Europe are emerging to the scene. The other one is the demographic aspects of it, and that's going to be playing a major role. Into where Europe is moving forward. You look at Germany, Germany now is looking for immigrants that it can build the economy, they can pay taxes. Like I said last time, do you think the Germans, when they brought in about 2 million Syrians from back then, do you think they did it because they care for Syrians? No, they brought the children so they can grow up into the culture learn the language, contribute to the economy, pay taxes, and so forth. Because immigration is always a key factor. But now German society is aging. So is Italy, France, UK, and some others. So that's why I feel comfortable saying the economic recovery, it's not on the horizon. So let's just be honest about it. And whether Europe is collapsing economically I feel comfortable saying so. And this leads me to one other part of the— this analysis, and it has to do with why Europe is following the US blindly. It's a fair question to ask. Yes, the relationship is more complex than simple blind follow. I, I understand that, but there are also historical reasons why Europe has always aligned itself closely with the US. And one of them, the first one that come in line is the security dependence. So of course, if you go back into history, you realize that after World War II and throughout the Cold War, Europe relied on the US military protection, particularly NATO. But NATO now is fragmented. NATO is a relic of the past. And NATO couldn't even stand— take stand against the Russians in Ukraine. We all know there are NATO soldiers on the Ukrainian soil. I went to Ukraine and I saw when I was crossing the border, I saw the British moving in, civilians that is, so they say. So This is what created the structural dependency that persists till today. So when you hear Europe is saying we want to have our own security, it's nothing but hypes. Many Europeans still host US military bases. Look how many in Germany, Italy, UK, and some other parts of Europe that you don't know about, even in Netherlands. So, and that's again, you look at how much they depending on that. As to the economic integration with the US, there is a reason because we want to remain dependent on the US. It's not about shared values as they say, that's nonsense. This shared value thinks about democracy and freedom and liberty and it's nonsense. Look what the German authorities are doing to the protesters or demonstrators in support of Palestine. Look what we doing here with the censorship. You know, it's— look what the UK is saying now. They're passing a law that if you criticize, I think, the prime minister or whatever, you— or, or you put a tweet or something like that, you get jailed. That's ludicrous. So, so what is this shared values per se? No, there is, there's, uh, all this is nothing but, uh, but, but hypes. One thing that I know for a fact, and I know this for a fact, is that the energy prices in Europe will remain high more than ever. So it's not gonna be changed till this issue of Ukraine is resolved. And not only that, it's still Europe. Free itself from the shackles of the United States. And as a matter of fact, household electricity prices in Europe, some sort of went up in 2025. Of course, there was a stats by the, the Europorter report in 2024 that the prices have stable. They have to say that, of course, but prices didn't. Once again, I am talking based on facts. I have family members who live in Europe. I ask them those questions. So, how much do you pay for electricity? And they'll give me the price, and I convert, and I see, whoa, that's too much. So, and when I break it down into how much per kilowatt in, in comparison to what I'm paying here This is again where, you know, the idea for Europe to be realistic with its reality, you know, is going to have to figure out a way of to seek independence from the US, forge its own path. Why? Is because what lies ahead, what lies ahead, and what am I referring to here? And I'm going to end with this part. What am I referring to here? I am referring here to what might lie ahead for Europe regarding tensions with Russia, because it's almost a foregone conclusion that there is a war shadow in the background. I had a chance to read an analysis by a writer and a researcher. His name is Omar Al-Sheikh, in Arabic. Very interesting analysis, and I'm going to look up this guy exactly, dig more into his background to understand, because the analysis made more sense to me. So, because you think about, for example, the structural inevitability of the coming war between Russia and the West. We are— it's like European wanted to have a war. Can they afford the war? Can they win? So, and why is this important for you to understand, especially for my viewers who live in Europe? You have to understand what lies ahead, because when you look at the indicators of the escalation, it's no different than what happened in World War I and World War II. So the security developments in Europe are accelerating exactly in the same fashion and manner, almost reminiscent of what took place prior to the outbreak of World War I and World War II. This is where you have that saying of history, uh, will repeat itself. So because now you have, uh, when you start to see unknown drones flying over European territory When you have the sabotage of the submarine cables, when you have the escalation of military maneuvers in the Baltic Sea, all this should give you an indication. And I'm going to have— I'm going to call in Larry Johnson when he gets back from Russia. I'll have him here and we'll detail even this more. For now, suffice it for you to understand that Europe And the West collectively are approaching some sort of an inevitable confrontation with Russia because Russia is also conducting a drill of its nuclear triad. As a matter of fact, this morning I read a report about the Russian President Vladimir Putin, he himself overseeing the drills. That's a message right there when you have the head of state personally overseeing the drills. Because you think about it, Europe didn't take stand when it allowed, for example, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, it allowed the expansion of Western policy, including what NATO was doing, all the way eastward to Russia's doorsteps. And yet the NATO was saying, which means the US saying, oh, we guarantee your security. Mark my word on it, when we start seeing body bags coming here, Americans not gonna— Americans are now saying, why the heck are we sending our tax dollars to NATO, or supporting Europe for that matter? Why are we sending our tax dollars to Ukraine, a corrupted and, and dysfunctional and a failed state. So, you know, this is, uh, it's nothing but— when you think about it, what NATO did and what Europeans agreed to is nothing but to undermine the existing balance of power that existed. So, so, oh, I'm not denying, as one who taught international relations for graduate program, I'm not denying that the international system in itself is inherently chaotic. I'm not denying that because the great powers distrust themselves, distrust the intentions. You know, how do you think Russians interpreted when they start seeing NATO's forces expanding all the way across to Russia's doorsteps? So in this case, What you have to do is you have to maximize your power to ensure deterrence, which means what? Survival. And that is why with each expansion Russia perceived as another noose around its neck approaching its borders. Yeah, what do you expect? And that is the reality. This is why you're seeing the Brits are pushing the narrative, the Americans are pushing the narrative behind the scenes. The Europeans have to rally behind Ukraine, you know, you know, and all, all Russia wants war, when in reality it doesn't. You know, Europeans will not, will pay a— the heavy price if they keep pushing this way. As a matter of fact, the data released from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute as of 2025, it indicates that at least for Russia, which means they are preparing, that the Russian military spending has increased more than 12% annually since 2022. With ammunition and artillery production doubling while the European defense spending remains at only 2.1% of GDP. As a matter of fact, it's embarrassing that they found out that Ukraine ran out of ammo yesterday or the day before. That just, it tells you right there. So, so when you have NATO in itself also suffers from the sort of the slow joint industrial decisions, that just tells you right there where the state of affairs is regarding NATO. So, so two things you have to look for, especially for my viewers in Europe. You know, the signs of escalation. No, is a war coming to Europe? I don't think so at this time, at least. No, I didn't see the major signs. Data will convince me otherwise. But for now, I can see the signs of gradual escalations. So because this shadow war, which started, by the way, when we bombed the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, because we did in the Baltic Sea, when we, you know, considered also the sabotage in 2025, this year of the Baltic Connector cable. So yeah, all this gives you an idea as to what lies ahead. And when you have, uh, of course, certain intelligence services will have to weigh in into this. And I'm going to share an example with you from, uh, one in, uh, Northern Europe, in Denmark. The Danish Defence Intelligence Agency, DDIS, in one of its reports of 2025, it argued that Russia considers itself engaged in a hybrid war with the West and the likelihood of a confrontation escalating into an open one in a high and permanent— that means Europe. So of course the Europeans will have to think how this is going to go. It's almost, in my opinion, in, in my, uh, in my opinion, uh, almost feel like they're going to start to have a countdown. You know, you count down when the rocket is going to take off— 10, 9, 8. So they're starting from some number That's how I see it. Because why is this important? Once again, for my viewers in Europe, why is this important? Because it becomes logic. It becomes logical to think in terms of what these escalations mean. So when a state will initiate versus, uh, uh, just wait and see attitude. Two different things. When a deterrent versus counterdeterrence is complete— and this is again where that concept, I don't know if you're familiar with it, the concept of structural countdown to war. It's, it's a concept. If you read up a little bit more on that, it will make more sense to you. But this in itself highlights one of the key factors And I remember I used to talk about this when I was teaching at the university for the graduate program. When you think about the, the moments of three variables that exist within this, you have capability, you have time, and you have the will or determination. And when all those intersect, what does it mean? It means that the conflict is the only stable option. And this option, that's what exactly the theory of the IR, or international relations, is all about. And this is exactly what we're seeing, you know. This is again where, to those who are familiar with the IR theories, international relations theory, you have the two main school of thoughts: the realism and liberalism. So both of them are the two main theory frameworks for, you know, in international relations that offer some sort of contrasting views about state behavior, cooperation, and conflict. So, so you take, for example, realism. What, what, what do they stand for? Realism views the international system as an anarchic and self-help system where state in this matter is the primary actor. In this case, all the states are the primary actors, you know. And why is this? Because it's driven by self-interest. Some will say, and also the pursuit of power, like what we do. We are pursuing power in Europe. That's why we put our thumb on Europeans to never free themselves from the shackles of the United And this lead into some sort of pessimistic view of inevitable conflict, which is exactly what you are witnessing in Europe. Liberalism, on the other hand, some sort of is more optimistic. Well, optimistic in idea, maybe not in practice. And that's believing that cooperation sort of is possible through international institutions, economic independence or inner independence, and the spread of so-called democracy, which can mitigate conflict and promote mutual benefits. But I don't see any of that. If we are to call ourselves sort of moving forward or pushing towards more liberalism, where are those ideas, those concepts? Where is this, the possible pursuit of cooperation through institutional, international institutions where we are, for example, threatening the ICC if it does the right thing by issuing an arrest warrant against Benjamin Netanyahu for the war crime he committed? So where is this international cooperation if we are going to Venezuela and conducting a covert ops, you know, what we say versus what we do. And that's my reason for why I wanted to do this for you, because I want you to, especially once again for my viewers in Europe, to have a better understanding. So, and the nuclear deterrence becomes the wild card. This is why Russia did a drill of a nuclear strategic command. A message, preparation, whatever way you want to look at it. So, and of course, the narrative coming out of Washington and Brussels and London and Paris and Berlin and all that is going to be, oh, Russia wants a war. No, no, because where the problem is, is when you have some sort of two main narratives intersect in a single platform or a single space, so dialogue becomes impossible. Yeah, because you'll be talking about concessions, you'll be talking about defeat, you'll be talking about victory, you'll be talking about, you know, you have to look at the big picture. And when you add the European fragmentation to this picture, The American preoccupation with its own domestic affairs, because we do have problems, serious ones here, from a crumbling infrastructure to a discontent population. You're losing confidence in the government altogether. I don't see this government represent me. I never voted for Trump or anyone for that matter. That's it. I'm done with voting, you know, because I don't have faith in the government. I don't care who's in the White House. That's it. Because there is a leadership vacuum that exists right now in the Western European style. So, and that is where in such scenario what you're gonna have, you're gonna have some sort of state will decide, is it time to move forward, which one we need to do. So it's almost like what, uh, and I remember reading this from in Arabic, if my memory serves me well, the idea of, uh, by Omar when he wrote this, it makes sense to me that where Europe is, since we're talking about Europe, where is currently, where is Europe currently? So, and what is it experiencing currently? So this is what it's called, and I put in quote, it's pre-explosion phase, in quote. Yeah, because the escalation part is already underway. We all see it, you know, look at the intelligence space, look at the economic space, look at the electronic space, look at the media levels. So All this is part of that big picture, which is the, the, uh, the, the, the covert operations that are moving from that phase into an overt one. Now we openly say we want to have a war with Russia. So, and that's again where you have to understand where this is going. And one aspect that I need you to understand with all this is the probability. So according to a probabilistic model, there is a model for probability to those who do statistics and all that stuff. Probabilistic models for 2025 that suggest that a major confrontation between Russia and the West is about 58% by 2027, not now. And about 70 to 71% by 2028, which exceeds usually the threshold of the high probability because now you're moving into structural likelihood. That means the possibility of that. So, and this where containment won't work anymore, because it won't work. So, and I conclude with a phrase that I remember Mershimer— by the way, I reached out to him to invite him here on this channel, but he never responded, so I moved on. And I remember him writing about 2 decades ago— I was aware of Mershimer when I was in Washington DC and all that. So it is what he wrote, and I quote: "The tragedy is not that the great powers seek war, but that the structure, the structure of the international system drives them towards it against their will." End of quote. I couldn't agree more. I couldn't agree more. All right, on that note, I am, I I'm ending my conversation here, so I'll see if you have any question. I'd be happy to answer it for you. First of all, uh, I want to say thank you to Paul Green as a new YouTube member. Welcome to our community, Paul. Look forward to having you interact with the community here some. Uh, truly appreciate you, uh, all being here. Uh, to those who wants to support the channel, I'm going to put the link for for you in the chat box. I would greatly appreciate your channel. You know the type of information you are getting here. This is not something, you know, it takes me time to dig this information for you because I want you to get the best. Knowledge is power, as the saying goes, and being informed is what's going to separate you from others. I'm not saying you'll be better All I'm saying separates you from others as far as your knowledge and understanding what needs to be done. So greatly appreciate you. If you can support the channel, I'll be very grateful, and I look forward to seeing you next time. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, bye-bye.