Fearing Retaliation, Israel Gives up on Striking Iran | Geopolitical Trends

All right, hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Excited to be with you, and I missed you all last week. So you all know what happened, no need to— but we stay positive. So anyway, so excited to be with you, uh, because of the topic I'm going to be addressing for you. It's something I wrote about, uh, which is Iran and Middle East writ large. And also provide you my own analysis regarding the development that's going on. But before I'll do this, I want to say hi to our wonderful community. Please guys, give me thumbs up if you can hear me clearly. So I had yesterday Elizabeth come over here and help me out. Elizabeth and her husband, they helped me out with the sound. So I'm using the DJI Micro, uh, uh, system that I bought in China. So Please, I want to— if you can give me a thumbs up, I want to make sure. YT, good to go. Why? Okay, it's working out. So let me say hi. Timeline Dunkley, good to see you. And you and I, Timeline Dunkley, we need to talk offline, you know, especially following your recent visit to China where you spent a month. Uh, Willie Holman, good to see you. Truth Seeker, as always. Amanda, good to see you. Sorry for the the hiccup, you had to access my channel. Yeah, there've been some few changes, but, uh, when you type in Geopolitical Trend, make sure to type in my name with it. So, uh, Marco W, good to see you. Uh, who else is here? Amanda, I said. And Alok, good to see you. YT, good to see you. Hong Luan, good to see you. SB, good to see you. And of course, Jimmy New York City, I know who that is. Good to see you as always. Kara Kulak, as always, good to see you. All right guys, let's get into our topic. First of all, I have some housekeeping stuff. Uh, my interview with Larry Johnson has been rescheduled. Uh, something came up to him that, uh, he had to travel, so I understand. Uh, but we will resume, that interview in a few days when he gets back. He will let me know. So the other thing is, I hope you guys get a chance to, uh, check out my video this morning that I released, because it was supposed to be released last week, but I couldn't. You all know why. Uh, to those who have not, uh, I'm, I'm gonna share the link with you guys. Please make sure to check it out and, and give it a like. I will greatly appreciate it. It's a sponsored video but also touches on some other aspects that was not disclosed, uh, in, in the media. And as a matter of fact, I'm gonna share one, one comment from, uh, uh, OOT. Uh, you wrote 3 minutes ago, you wrote, uh, US Geological Survey Mineral Commodity Summaries Rare Earth Report in 2021. Shows that China has about 38% of the world reserves of rare earths. Vietnam has 19%, Brazil has 18%, Russia has 10%, India has 6%, uh, and a bunch of other countries, uh, not, uh, Ukraine. Ukraine is in north, I believe, uh, less than 6% each. And then other countries have about 2%. So this location in Ukraine, uh, Ukraine, uh, has any at all, it will be a fraction of less than 0.2%. So thank you for sharing that with the community. So appreciate it. So, uh, all right, my topic today, just for those who might not know what I'm going to be talking about, uh, let me show you a picture and I'm going to share, uh, this with you guys. Uh, just— and I give credit to Al Jazeera for this picture here. This is the, uh, Israeli fighter jets conducting joint military exercises with the US using bombers. This is back— no, it's not recent, that's about a few years ago. It's— if I'm remiss, if I don't— if I'm not mistaken, it's 2023. That's what I recall, and I was following this development. So, so what I'm going to be talking about today is, did Israel give up on striking Iran nuclear facilities because of Trump. So that will be very interesting, uh, given my analysis that I'm going to be sharing with you. But before I'll do this, I'm gonna do some headlines for you because, like always, I believe you guys need to know what's going on around the world. So they'll give— keep you at least aware. So we'll start with Greenland. What's going on in Greenland? Well, of course, tomorrow they have the general elections You know, and of course this comes to, uh, against the hills, uh, uh, yeah, on the heels rather of Mr. Trump's wanting to acquire Greenland. So Greenland voters will cast their ballots tomorrow in a legislative election that follows the campaign that has— sorry guys, I gotta silence this— uh, that has largely focused on on when to sever— yeah, listen carefully— when to sever ties with Denmark without falling foul of the United States and its President Donald Trump. So that is very, very interesting. As a matter of fact, the Prime Minister, the Prime Minister of Greenland, the one you see, his name is Mjøt Egede, or Egede. He said, and I quote, "My people do not want to be Americans or Danes." And this, end of quote. And this, of course, in response to Donald Trump's renewed desire to annex the autonomous Danish territory to the US. You all know why, and especially now with this rare earth mineral in Ukraine turns out to be a ho— it's a lie. That's why I did the, uh, the video. I wanted to provide that argument. The rare earth in, in Ukraine exist in the— they are in the eastern part that is now controlled under Russia. So, you know, that's to me was, uh, was, was a lie, or mis— uh, Trump was misled into all this. Uh, second headline I want to do for you has to do with India. It looks like India got scared. Of when Trump said, we're gonna look into India's tariffs. Why? Because India was putting, putting high tariffs on US, uh, products. So now what did India say? Modi was shivered. He says, and I quote here, we are ready to cut tariffs. It's so funny how India all of a sudden is shitting his pants after what Trump said. So, because what Trump said was that India was willing to cut its tariffs even further as he steps up pressure on New Delhi to lower trade barriers, uh, he said impose unfair cost on US companies. Well, let's be honest, let's be honest and frank. Which companies, American companies, going to go to India and do business there? The infrastructure is not there. So, and you all know the story. There is no need to talk even further at this. What you need to know is that now India agreed. And now they're going to reduce the tariffs. They got scared. Modi, you know, Modi is not going to take chance with Trump. He can't stand to. You know, he's not that type. Of doesn't have that personality to stand up to Trump anyways. All right, a third one, uh, and as I said, I already did this one. And third one has to do with— I'm gonna do a topic for you tomorrow about it. This one has to do with the joint naval drills between Iran, China, and Russia. Yes, this is gonna be And it's going to be tomorrow in the southeastern Iranian port of none other than Chabahar. So makes you just wonder. So actually, I already took a look, uh, I digged enough last night to find out what type of we— what type of weapon is going to be used. This is not your average— this one here coming up tomorrow This drill is not your average naval drills because of what they're going to be using, and I intend to, uh, update you on that tomorrow. I'll do a live stream for you. Do you guys would like me to do a live stream on that? Uh, just please, uh, in, in the chat box, uh, if you can just, uh, yes or no. Well, Milty Tom, I have to disagree with you with that. When I do the headlines, I want to keep the community informed. Now, if, if it bothers you that you couldn't be patient for a few seconds, that's something you need to work on, okay? I'm straightforward because I don't tolerate nonsense, because this is, to me, it's nonsense. So I would appreciate it if you can refrain from this kind of comments. Thank you very much. So, all right guys, let's, uh, let's ask the— let me share the with you the questions that matter here regarding our topic that I'm going to be, uh, talking to you, uh, about today. So, all right, here are the questions. Uh, let me, let me get to the questions here. All right, here are the questions. First of all, why did Israel back down? All of a sudden now they are willing to negotiate with the Iranians. Yeah, this comes to shock to you? Shouldn't, because if you know the history of Iran and Israel, and I'm going to share with you, uh, that history here in this analysis here. Second question, what are Iran's options? Because Iran has already put options on the table regarding if this attack will proceed. Third question: what are the security risks? When I say security risks, I'm not referring just to Israel or Iran, I'm talking about the whole region. And the last question is: what are the geopolitical implications? Remember, tomorrow they're going to be the naval joint naval drills between Iran, China, and Russia. This is what geopolitics is all about. So, so I'm going to provide you my own insights regarding all this And we just go from there. So now this looks at as a shocking turn of events, you know, as now Israel appears to be— what's the word I'm looking for— reversing its stance on Iran because now it's shifting from potential military attack to possible negotiations, even though some analysts inside Israel are saying, oh, The military option is not, is not off the table. I can see that. Same thing we've been saying here in the US with Donald Trump. So, but like I said, we're going to have to think about in terms of what's led to this, uh, uh, sudden change. You know, is this has to do with the concern that Israel now have about US having negotiations with Hamas? Yeah, completely separate from that. Is this also has to do with the concern Israel has about the possibility that US might enter into negotiations with Iran regarding the JCPOA? Because Donald Trump said he sent a letter to, uh, uh, uh, the Supreme Leader regarding this. So, all right, before I move forward, the analysis you are hearing in this channel here is unique. To this money. You're not gonna hear it anywhere else. So I will greatly appreciate— if this is your first time here, if you can, uh, just, uh, uh, subscribe to the channel. I'm gonna put the link for you in the, in the, uh, chat box here. I will greatly appreciate it if you can subscribe and share the channel with others, and I'll be very grateful for your support. And thank you. So Well, so the idea of thinking about now all of a sudden this change happens between Israel regarding Israel's attack on Iran. Even during my days in Washington back then, I was aware of the possibility of striking Iran at the time. And we had at that time, usually in the Pentagon, we have what we call the menu. Like, like when you go to the restaurant, you have a menu. Well, in the military, there is also a certain something similar to that called the menu. What the menu has to do with the options— are you going to do carpet bombing? Are you going to do just missile strikes? Are you going to take out just the radar installations? Are you— the airports, the airstrips, and so forth? So the menu, on the menu, on the top was a tactical strike. That was back then, few days ago. So what it appears now is that Israel is kind of reversing, uh, uh, that ability or that desire because changing its position from launching a military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities to now considering negotiations. But again, you have to think about this from a different angles. So the one that comes to mind is that did Israel realize that it couldn't drag the United States into a direct conflict with Iran? Now, if the US has a military confrontation with Iran directly, of course, that will be music to the Israelis' ears because all they're gonna do is join in. Could it be the other way around? That Israel could attack Iranian facilities on behalf of the US, which means the US will back Israel, which we will one way or another. The US will do it. So, but also you have to understand the history part of this relationship between, between Iran and the, and Israel. So It's very, very important to understand this. Now you have to go back to the '80s, of course, but I'm going to take you even before that. But why the '80s? Because the '80s, that's when the proxy conflict between Iran and Israel launched. Why the '80s? Uh, that's a question for you guys. Why specifically at the beginning of the '80s? Does anybody know? All right, let me see what you guys thought. Just remember what happened, uh, during that time at the turn of the '70s into early '80s. What happened at the late '70s? Oh, YT, you got it, you got it! It was the revolution. It was the revolution. That's what it was. So because it was end in 1979, that's why this kind of proxy conflict, uh, uh, was motivated by the, the sort of the Periphery Doctrine. And which was what? It was the idea at that time that Iran and Israel wanted to have a close relations You know why? It's because both of them— Iran, because Iran is not an Arab country, Iran is Persian, Persian country— and Israel, both of them had something in common back then, which is what? Is that Arab countries are a common threat. So, and this is where, of course, the, the COVID ties between the two was very apparent during the Iran-Iraq War. So it was a great article, uh, by Maziar Motamedi, and I'm going to put a link for you guys. You can read up on it later on. I put it in chat box for you guys should you decide to read up on that later. Uh, the idea of you have to think about, during the Bahá'í dynasty, you all know who Reza Shah Bahá'í, who ruled from, uh, uh, when I see the Bahá'í dynasty, not the Reza, the latest one, from 1925 till about— till he was overthrown in 1979, a revolution. So, and this is where the ties from 1925 to 1979, this is where the ties between Iran and Israel were anything but hostile. Yeah, a lot of people do not know. So Iran was in fact the second— yeah, the second Muslim-majority country to recognize Israel after it was founded in 1948. This might come to you as a shock. Iran was one of the 11 members of the special United Nations committee that was formed in 1947 to devise a solution to the Palestinians after British control of the territory ended. Because remember, it was the British that paved the way for, for Israel and the partition of Palestine at the time. So because it was in, uh, uh, Iran was one of the three votes against the US the UN, rather, partisan plan for Palestine, which centered on concern that it would escalate violence in the region for generations to come. So apparently the Iranians were thinking very, very far. So, and this is where it comes very interesting. And what's interesting about it is that Iran, alongside with Yugoslavia, came up with an alternative plan. And as a matter of fact, some record I found that, that even India was part of that. But so far, mainly the Iran and Yugoslavia came up with an alternative plan, which is a federation solution, which was about keeping Palestine as one state with one parliament, but divided into Arabs and Jewish cantons. And this was quoted by a historian, University of Oxford historian Eric Kevin Down. Yeah, yeah. Now interestingly enough is that that was Iran compromise to trying to maintain positive relationship with Israel. So on another article I found, I dig into this one, it was by, uh, by by Leila, uh, Pivko. And I have, uh, the link for you guys here if you want to read it later on. And this is from academia, so academic scholars, that is. So what she wrote, and I quote, in the past, the two centuries— the two countries rather enjoyed long period of peace and close relations under the Iranian monarchy, and even to some extent after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The two countries have been advocated for each other politically. Yeah, and, and she provided an example here. For example, only 3 days after the, uh, you all remember what year did the Iran-Iraq War started? Does anybody know? And I just want you to put the year there. Or, or just the decade, when did it start? Uh, Zan, you got it, in the '80s. So here is what's interesting, here is what's interesting. You all know who this individual is. Can anybody tell me if you recognize him? Let me see in the chat box before I'll say something about it. And again, I just want to, uh, include you in the conversation here, guys, because I want you to be part of it. Oh, oh, Amanda, you got it, you got it! It was Diane— Mushi Diane. Sorry, I hit this by mistake. You, you, you, uh, you're right, Amanda, that's what it was. So here is the important thing: only 3 days after the Iraq and Iran, uh, war, uh, started. Okay, only 3 days. And this is according to Trita Parsi, Dr. Trita Parsi. And Trita Parsi wrote extensively about Iran. So as a matter of fact, I extended an invitation for him to come on this channel, but he couldn't, he was traveling. So I will reach out to him at some other point. And the argument was that, that the Israeli foreign minister at that time, which was Moshe Dayan. Funny how most of the generals in Israel end up being prime ministers later on, majority. So what did Moshe Dayan do? Did he interrupt a private visit to Vienna? Why Vienna? Is because he wanted to urge the United States to forget the past and help Iran keep up its defenses. So, and all this, it is the key, the historical key that also you need to know. All this happens while Iran was still hostage, was still, uh, was still, uh, holding the US diplomat hostage. You all know this. That's when Reagan came in and all that stuff. That's what I found very, very interesting. So, so the idea that all of a sudden Israel, uh, is reversing course regarding the attacks by going into diplomatic negotiations. It will not be openly because Iran is not going to do it because they'll get a, a, a backlash domestically, and Iran doesn't want that. So they're going to be behind the scenes through third party in a neutral country, whatever there is neutral countries in the world left. But I just don't see this. The way I see it in my own assessment, based again on what I, uh, the research that I conducted for my, uh, for my Iran book, is that Israel is concerned now that the US might be renegotiating with Iran the nuclear file, even though, uh, uh, what's his name, Ali Khamenei, turned down the offer from Donald Trump. So even what I wrote back then from my book, The Volatile State: Iran in the Nuclear Age, at that time I was thinking in terms of what if, what if. Here is what I wrote: Israel has opposed for many years any agreement with Iran regarding its nuclear program, considering that Tehran seeks to develop nuclear weapons under the COVID of its peaceful nuclear program. As argued in my, uh, uh, Iran book, uh, Israel and Saudi Arabia to some degree are behind the strong opposition of the US Congress to Iran's nuclear deal for two main reasons. One is that Israel worries that lifting sanctions against Iran paves the way for the latter to increase its military and economic support —for groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis—and 2) Saudi Arabia fears the expansion of an Iranian sphere of influence that may decrease Saudi Arabia's religious dominance in the Muslim world. However, I continue, I do not subscribe to the notion that Iran post-nuclear agreement advances either its ideology Or religiously speaking, its attempt to dominate the Muslim world even before the nuclear agreement, the invasion of Iraq, American foreign policy double standards, the civil war in Syria and the upheaval in Yemen— that was back then— the military coup in Egypt and the failed state of Libya demonstrates that religious differences divide the Middle East. In religious terms. So in my opinion, Saudi Arabia is unwilling to relinquish its religious leadership. That's what was at the heart of it. And this is why I believe now Israel is concerned about the steps the United States is taking with both, with Hamas, because they had secret talks, but now they're no secret anymore because Israel blow the whistle on that. And second is now the talk, the offer by the United States to Iran to negotiate. Now, I read somewhere where it says that it was Iran that reached out to the US. I don't buy that. I don't— knowing what I know, I don't buy that. There is no way. There is no way. So, and this is why The Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has rejected— yeah, he rejected nuclear talks with the US after Trump's overtures. So Ali Khamenei, the one you see on your picture, said, and I quote, we will not negotiate a nuclear deal with the United States, citing demand about the country's missile range and influence. The big concern for Israel is this recent testing of missiles, and I'm going to get into that as I move forward. So once again, I had a chance to read an analysis, or an article rather, I'm sorry, analysis, not an article rather, by Jason Brodsky. And let me, let me put the link for you guys so you know where this stuff is coming from. And I put this in the description later on. So, so now what makes the Iran, uh, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, uh, decide not to move forward? Well, of course, after what we did when we withdrew from the, uh, JCPOA in 2015, Comprehensive Plan of Action, the, uh, this is what Trump did. So what makes Trump think Iranian is going to trust Trump to sit down again to negotiate only to turn on them. So, and this is not about just Trump, it's about the whole United States credibility, which we don't have any left. It shattered beyond repair. You look at just now what's going on around the world. So, and this is why Israel is concerned about this because the calculations for Israel is this. What if the United States reach a deal with Iran that will allow it to move forward, maybe not reaching the point of developing a nuclear bomb, even though you and I know the possibility is there that they might even have something like that, the likes of North Korea and the likes of, of course, as we know, India and Pakistan, for one re— for one specific reason. So And this is why, uh, that the Trump administration sort of has not given the— its blessings for Israel to attack Iran. This is why Israel is hesitating. And the reason being, you know, those drills here, do you know what those drills were about back then? They were about ensuring the fueling of the Israeli fighter jets in the air because Israel does not have that capability. Who's going to be providing that is the United States, which makes the United States a target for Iran's missiles. This is why Israel is kind of, uh, uh, uh, sort of retracting its, uh, uh, decision that we're gonna go ahead and attack the, the nuclear facilities all of a sudden they are now talking about the possibility of negotiations. It's because we didn't give them the green light. And this is once again why I said what I said earlier. Could it be that should we decide to go into a military conflict with, uh, Iran, we let the Israelis do it, but we provide all the support from behind the scenes? So, so But at the same time, we should be realistic. You know, what makes us think that Iranians gonna accept Trump's offer? You know, that's kind of arrogance on our part to think we're just gonna dictate to other countries and they gonna bow. Yes, there are those countries like Germany, like Sweden, like Finland, Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, UK. France, Canada to a degree. You got the idea. So, and this is why, uh, Israel is kind of very, very, very, very concerned. And that is one of the reasons why also Israel is calculating on what if things works out between the US and Iran regarding negotiations, and Iran will move forward into its nuclear program. Because if there is one thing Israel fears the most is Iran. So once again, I argued in my book back then, and I wrote, assuming the agreement is a mistake— meaning the JCPOA agreement that it was reached is a mistake— and the United States Congress votes down the deal or authorizes military strikes, Iran will have no choice but to do what Israel itself, Pakistan, India, and North Korea did, which is develop nuclear weapons in secret. Then Iran will withdraw from being a signatory of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, NPT, which is signed in 1970, a withdrawal that would lead to uncertainty, instability, and shifting alliances. I wrote back then, which to me was a fair argument at that time. And now here we are. Israel now is considering to do negotiations rather than targeting, uh, uh, uh, uh, Iran's nuclear facility. This is why that sort of to Israel now diplomacy is a better alternative than threat. So Because make no mistake about it, Israel has always favored military strike, but also because it will have to do— it will have to count on the United States. Israel cannot fight by itself. I mean, let's, let's, let's be realistic. Was Israel able to defeat Hamas in Gaza? I'll let you be the judge of that. So But this is why, uh, Israel is concerned about that. But there is another element which, as I showed you the picture earlier, and I'm going to share a clip with you, uh, just to highlight to you something here quickly. So let me share a clip with you guys, and I want you— it's— I'm not— hold on a second, uh, share screen. Yeah, just take a listen briefly here, very, very brief. Okay, I'm gonna stop right there. I don't speak Farsi, but, but you got my point. My point is that Israel also have concerns about this particular recent test. So, and that's once again, it makes me, you know, putting my geopolitical analyst hat makes me think in terms of two factors that now sort of convinced the Israelis to reconsider. So the first one, of course, is that the possibility of negotiations between Iran and the United States. And second is the possibility that should Israel attack Iran, Iran will have— that's it. This is like they're gonna have to, uh, respond and by showing this type of missiles that they have in possession. And by the way, these new ones, which is a ballistic, I read the characteristics on it. It's about 2,000 kilometers, which is within reach to Israel. And it can carry multiple warheads. So that is where part of the, the, uh, uh, concerns Israel has. However, things could change. And why is this? Is because now the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has turned down the offer from, uh, uh, uh, uh, the United States— Donald Trump, that is. So here is what the, uh, Donald Trump letter to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei stated, and I quote, 'I hope there will be negotiations because it will be much better for Iran,' end of quote. See, that language is not going to be, uh, workable with Iranians or any other country for that matter. Yeah, you can do it with states that are very weak, so And, and, and that's just how I see it. So, uh, adding to that, uh, Mr., uh, Mr. Trump stating that, and I quote, we are in the final stages with Iran. It will be interesting. We are in the final moments. In any case, it will be a big problem. It is an interesting time in the history of the world, but there is a situation with Iran that something is going to happen soon, end of quote. Well, this basically translates to a language of threat, and usually in the world of diplomacy, you don't deal with countries like this. That's not how you approach it. But again, you all know Trump. Trump is Trump. Trump is for Trump. So, and what will be the concern of Israel's options on this? So, so Now, Israelis are considering, because they have several options to have to consider, and one of them is dealing with this Iran's nuclear file. One of them is to impose stricter sanctions. Now, the United States have been having sanctions on Iran since 1979. What did they achieve? Yes, the economy of Iran is struggling a little bit, But that doesn't mean Iran didn't stand on its own, because one of the key that Trump wants to negotiate beside GCPOA is Iran's missile technology, which Iran says it's off the table no matter what. They rather stay sanctioned than negotiate a missile, uh, uh, uh, defense, their missile industry. And why is this important for you guys to know? Because most of the missiles Iran developed including this recent one, the ICBMs, are all within reach to US military bases in the region. That is one of the concerns that also loom large, uh, in these talks regarding the possibility of if Iran and the United States come to the table. So, so, however, the Israeli analysts and those inside the cabinet also thinking in terms— despite, yeah, despite Israel does not fully trust Iran, you know, it will not rule out the possibility of having negotiations or reaching some sort of an agreement, which usually serves one objective and one objective only. Is to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear technology or nuclear weapon. But again, what makes Israel think that Israel— Iran might not have the bomb already? And still, to me, I can't conclusively say that they do or they don't. What do you guys think? In your opinion, do you believe— in your opinion, based what you understand and know, based on the reading you did, Does Iran have nuclear weapons? Yes or no in the chat box. Let me see. Oh, Hanging G, good to see you, Hanging G. Yeah, uh, Truth Seeker, you say yes. Hanging G, you say yes. YT, you say yes. Francis L— Francisco L You say no. Timeland Ankley, you say yes. Raib Hassan, you say yes. Multitasker, I, I, I take it you meant to say no. Iqbal Ahmed, you say yes. Tyron, you say yes. Uh, Francis Tango, I believe, I believe they are working together. Reza, you say no. Yeah, see, Rose, you say no. My point in wanting to ask the question is just to solicit your feedback in showing you that there is that division that exists between those who believe Iran has already developed and has something, uh, and under, uh, uh, in, in its bunkers, whatever that might be, and those who say no, it, it does not. And to Israel, it, it can take risks. That is usually what is, is thinking about. So, and that falls back to the whole idea of why you have to understand the context of the hist— the historical context, rather, the, the, uh, even the social setting of where this relationship used to be between Iran and Israel. So Because what Israel is saying to the— to, to Washington is that Israel has already prepared the plans to join for a joint attack with the United States on Iran's nuclear facility. So because if we are to go, that makes us party to the conflict. And at that point, Israel— Iran will have to retaliate one way or another. Now, there are those who say, well, Iran might be just talking like they always do. Like, again, I've said this before to you guys, in this matters, you can react emotionally, you can let anger decide or drive your decision. You're talking about the fate of nations, you're talking about the changing the fundamental change to the geopolitical landscape, you're going to turn things upside down, exactly like what we've seen in Europe right now, or Ukraine for that matter, because Ukraine is end up turning things upside down for Europe. The same thing is going to happen in Asia if the South Korea, if Japan, if Philippines and Australia don't get their act together. But I don't expect them to because it's too late. Funny enough is that you're seeing some changes coming up, at least regarding this aspect. So, and for the— regarding Israel and Iran, when you think about how other countries like Saudi Arabia, even though they brokered the deal with the diplomatic relations, uh, the reestablished diplomatic relations with, with, uh, uh, with Iran, still behind the scenes there is some some lingering issues. It's all about Saudis not wanting to lose that dominance. Once again, I argued this particular point in a different, in a different way regarding, uh, that's why I hope you guys get a chance to read, uh, my Iran book, and you can get a copy in Buy Me a Coffee. I have it there. So you can check it out there. It is what I wrote back then about this one. A small percentage, 4 to 8%, of Sunni Muslims live in Iran today. It includes the Kurds and the Baloch, which is Balochistan. Less widely known is that non-Muslim minorities that include Christians, Jews, and Yazidis, among others, live and worship in Iran. Speaking of Iran or Iranian Jews, evidence in the literature suggests the, the extraordinary cultural contribution Iran Jews or Iranian Jews have made to Iran society. However, after the Iranian Revolution of 1979, many Iranian Jews decided to leave Iran and resettle in Israel. Also less widely known or reported in the West is that Christians still reside in Iran. They total about 100, give or take, 20,000 according to Jamshid Chokshi. He's a distinguished professor of Central Euro-Asian Studies at the Indiana University Bloomberg. So it's— there's a lot of intricacies that is involving all this, and this is where you have to understand the dynamics. Because remember, during the JCPOA negotiations, who were the two countries that were opposing that? Saudi Arabia and Israel. And this is why you have to think in terms that if conventional wisdom suggest that the kingdom could not conduct— because here's the thing, Saudis could not even conduct a successful operation as simple as, let's say, a humanitarian or rescue mission. Tell me, did Saudis ever conducted any of those? So why? It's because it has been dependent on the United States for its survival for the last 80+ years. And remains to do so even today. And similarly, when you think about the chaos that was back then in Yemen, which is a result of the Saudis' poor, chaotic military execution, you know, shows that Saudi Arabia, uh, really demonstrated its ineptitude when it's acting alone because The Saudi family should— Saudi family should understand that engaging Iran— and I argued this back then— engaging Iran militarily is not an easy task, or as it may seem to them, because they have so many US weapons. It doesn't— says, what did the US weapons do for Ukrainians? None. So So because Iran has a strong military and stronger than the Saudis in this case. So, and this is why we have to understand why Saudi Arabia and Israel didn't want to agree to this deal regarding the JCPOA. So it puts now, thanks, the ball in the Israeli court because that's not in Iran court. In Israeli court, the way I see it. Israel has also the other concern, which is that the United States is negotiating with Hamas behind closed doors. That's a big, big blow to Israel. So this is why Israelis went ahead and, and, uh, uh, took the lid off this kind of secret talks, because the Israelis, uh, spies, if I mean use the term, they are in DC. This is where that difference is, and you need to understand the big picture. Could Iran enter into negotiations? The possibility is there, but I don't see it given where the conditions are right now. And let alone, we pulled out of JCPOA unilaterally. What makes Iranian think that they're going to agree to something only for us to turn a year from today and and turn around and say, oh, by the way, we changed our minds, you know. And this to me, why it highlights— and again, it's no coincidence, the timing of it is interesting because this joint military exercises between Iran, Russia, and China, and the location of it, which is closer to Chabahar Port which will be closer also to if they want to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. And you all know what it means if the Strait of Hormuz is shut down vis-à-vis the oil, the global oil shipment. Let me see if I have a map of the, uh, Strait of Hormuz. I don't think so. Uh, yeah, you won't see it here. No, it's not here. No, I don't have it. So, but anyway, you got the idea of understanding these dynamics. And this is why I, I wanted to do this topic for you guys before the information starts. So you all know how it is. And that was the whole reason why I had the issue here, is because of what I talked about. Because just don't want masses to know. They don't want the masses to know. So, and that's why I count on your support, guys, as far as sharing this, uh, video and channels with others and, uh, subscribing to the channels. And it, it just— you all know how it is. I, I don't like to beat the dead horse for this one here, so. But that is one thing that I felt compelled to do. And tomorrow, uh, uh, oh, oh man, uh, yeah, can you guys please keep it civil? I will greatly appreciate it, please. And I'm asking politely, please guys, you know, I will appreciate it. You, you might not disagree with— you might disagree with some comments or whatever, but please, and I'm asking politely, please keep it civil here. And thank you. So I'm gonna let it go this time. So please, you, you, you, you, you have the right to express yourself. I'm not saying otherwise. It, it just, you know, even though I know the F-word is protected under the First Amendment, believe it or not, or the Fourth Amendment, I'm sorry, it is protected. But at the same time, you know, um You understand the setting is the setting, so I will appreciate it. Thank you very much. Uh, I, I don't need to say the names here, but anyway, so my point, guys, and I'm gonna close in on this, this is the reason why I wanted to do this, uh, uh, the regarding the joint military, uh, exercises because of the geopolitical, uh, impacts and, and implications to something like this and the significance of that. Why is it important? So that's what I wanted to do it, and I'm gonna— I already got my own information on all this, and I'm gonna share it with you tomorrow. And since I didn't even see whether you guys want that or not, I did ask, uh, I did ask, uh, whether you please answer yes or no, and I didn't see. Oh, so, but I'm gonna do it anyway tomorrow. Now there is something else also I'm working on, very, very, very, very interest— and interesting. And this regarding Germany, I'm not going to disclose it here. Uh, sometimes I don't like to get ahead of myself, but it's a very, very dynamic— if that moves forward, it's going to change the geopolitical upside down. I mean it when I say this. So I'm going to put it together, uh, for you guys also. In the coming days. So, all right guys, that's all I have to share with you. I did promise you back then, uh, first of all, let me, uh, let me share the link for those who wanted to support the channel. Uh, this is to support the Asia trip. Let's support the channel first here. And I want to once again say thank you to Khadija and say thank you to Amanda Thank you to Ray. Thank you to Hangin' G, uh, and thank you to American Citizen, uh, and, uh, Stephen, uh, Chang. So Scott, thank you very much for your— Scott Dixon, this is from Australia, much appreciate you. Tony, thank you very much. Uh, uh, Minar Ozili, thank you so much for your support. As I said, guys, I promised you I will work on on, uh, finalizing everything, and I did. So I'm gonna share a screen with you to show you where we are as far as the fundraising for the, uh, the trip for, for Asia. I did finalize 3 locations, uh, uh, 2 locations outside the country and 3 inside. So that makes it even almost 5. So, so far what we have got is this number right here. And this number— and I'm going to share the, uh, uh, the Buy Me a Coffee for you to see where that is, because transparency is very important to me. Share screen. Here it is. Here is what we got for the, uh, support for the Asia trip. Why is that number— why it's not $800? It's because the $800 comes from uh, the PayPal, the PayPal donations that I got. So, and I'm gonna share the screen for you guys to see because I created, uh, specifically just for that, uh, for you guys to see. Like I always say, transparency is crucial to me. Okay, right there, guys, I want you to see So thank you to Michelle, uh, and, uh, yeah, Michelle supported the trip twice for those with those donations. And John Leveillé supported this trip also. So, so this is where we are and so far, and, uh, I'm gonna keep you updated. I just saw, as a matter of fact, I just saw a donation here from, uh, and I'm gonna say it right now while I have, uh, this on the air. Just bear with me here, guys. Oh, someone bought, uh, yeah, it's on the other, uh, on, on Buy Me Uh, hold on, let me see if I can get to it from here on my phone, if it works. Uh, no, it won't work here. So anyway, so somebody just bought me 10 cups of coffee. That means it's for the support of the channel, and I'm gonna give a shout out to the individual. So anyway, this is what I, uh, I just wanted to give you, uh, uh updates regarding where we are regarding the Asia trip. As far as the time frame for the trip is, I am aiming for the end of August, so if not sooner, depending again if I reach that number sooner, that targeted number sooner, then I'll go earlier. Otherwise I have to wait till we reach that number. So And like I mentioned, there are almost 5 locations, 2 country, uh, 3 countries, uh, yeah, 2, 2 locations outside the country and 3 locations inside the country. So, and thank you all for your support. I'm very, very grateful to all of you. All right guys, I hope you find this very informative and I look forward to seeing you tomorrow. As always, remember, geopolitics impact your daily life. In more ways than one. Till next time, guys. Bye-bye.