From Taiwan to Tehran: Inside the Escalating Israel-China Proxy Conflict Reshaping Two Regions!

Hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. I'm your host, Dr. Oualaalou, excited to be with you as always. I have an interesting topic, and I did mention to you earlier I am going to be doing this specific topic for you, and this one has to do with the— let me, let me share the screen, not the screen rather, but it's just the image of the— that I I kept here for this particular topic, and this one has to do with Israel stabbing China in the back over Taiwan. So this one has to do with the Israelis in discussion with the Taiwanese to build the missile defense system. So this is what I'm going to be providing you, my own analysis about this development. Uh, I was aware during my days in Washington about the Israelis selling certain secrets to the Chinese behind the US back. I will be sharing some of that. It's not classified, it's declassified as a matter of fact, and I share with you some links. So before I'll do this, let me say hi, uh, to our wonderful community. Uh, YTT, good to see you. Leanne, as always, and hello to you. Uh, uh, Sang Brewery, good to see you here. I didn't see you the last few livestreams. Hope all is well. Taiwan Steel, good to see you as always. Uh, I know there are some others will be just joining us here shortly if they can make it so, but nonetheless, I'm going to go ahead and start, uh, my conversations on a host of things. So as I mentioned, uh, we'll be addressing today the Israel and China tensions coming up to the surface. Believe it or not, it's quiet so far, but there are tensions between Tel Aviv and Beijing. And, uh, of course, the statement is not a direct event but rather a reflection of the ongoing geopolitical dynamics, you know, as Israel enters into discussions, uh, to help Taiwan develop missile defense systems similar to its own, the Iron Dome. While we all know how this turned out when the Houthis and Ansarullah or Iran were launching their own missiles. So, but suffice it to say, this highlights to us the complexity and how sort of, uh, uh, the reason for Israel doing this, claiming that, uh, this defense system will help Taiwan defend itself against Chinese missiles threat. Yeah, where is Israel coming with all this? So this one now Uh, at the same time, uh, uh, uh, is, uh, China is, is responding to this in its own way, and I'm going to be detailing for you the types of steps China is taking. So, so before I'll do this, I want to share, just if you allow me, just to share, uh, uh, a comment from one of our viewers, uh, Ota Jul, uh, who wrote, and I quote, Uh, Dr. David Oualaalou, I watch many independent geopolitical programs from around the world, and most of them are excellent, but you offer insights and details that others hardly mention. I come here to review, uh, those details because you present them in such a powerful and intelligent way, making it much easier for us to understand the subject more deeply. Thank you very much. End of quote. It's so nice to read something like this from— now, now the person is part of our community. And this is, by the way, uh, guys, just to let you know, it's not a reflection on me, just me. It's all of us, the community at large. It's because also your contribution to the conversation, so emanates that kind of understanding, intellectually, uh, speaking, for how our community conducts itself when it comes down to, uh, literally, uh, responding, commenting, uh, uh, to, uh, topics that I address. So this is not at, uh— so the compliment is not just for me, the compliment is for our community. And thank you very much for all this. So to all of us. So, and welcome, uh, uh, Ota Jul to our community. So, um, I have some housekeeping items briefly here. I'm still going to be doing two more topics for you for the week, as I mentioned, uh, that will cover just the analysis. Then next week I'll move back to the regular topics I always do as far as addressing certain key aspects. Uh, some headlines today, I'm gonna have about three for you, two or three, let me see, one, two, three, three. We start with the first one over Iraq. Iraq makes you wonder why Well, here is the tank. What you're looking at here is the Karkuk-Shayon pipeline. This is that, uh, the one that delivers, I believe, uh, that delivers the, uh, or transport rather, pipeline oil, uh, transport oil from Iraq's Kurdistan to Turkey. Very, very interesting dynamics. What's important about this is that the idea that you remember back in, uh, when Iran launched some missiles that sort of drones, rather not missiles, drones that took off from Iran, uh, across the skies of Iraq's Kurdistan in the north of the country, which was back in mid-July. And that one was for specific target, and the specific targets were oil fields operated by the Americans, not the Iraqi, not the Kurds. That was the pipeline you are looking at. So, so one of these drones was launched by an Iranian-backed armed group inside Iraq back then and hit the Sarsang— there is a Sarsang oil field operated, uh, by HK Energy. If you know HK Energy, it's headquartered right here in Texas, and this one, the company is owned by the son of the billionaire Ross Perot. Ross Perot is from Texas, right here, is an oil billionaire. So, uh, another, uh, hit by those drones targeted the neighboring field which operated by Hunt Oil, which is another oil company based right here in Texas. My point of why I wanted to highlight this to you: you can now understand why the US presence still in Iraq They never wanted to leave. And you can understand why the, the, the, the tensions that exist in Syria has also to do with controlling the oil. And of course, it has to do with the pipeline over there. So I just want you to be aware of what's going on. Second one has to do now with Sudan, which I will be addressing this. I think it's time for me to provide you my own analysis about really what's going on And why, which is part of why I'm doing the headlines here for you, why all of a sudden Donald Trump is personally going to take charge of ending the war in Sudan? Yeah, good luck. Wasn't Trump who said, oh, as soon as I become president, I'm gonna end the Ukraine, uh, Russia war in, in less than a month? It's on the record. You know, it's all hypes, I'm here to tell you, because the conflicts in Sudan is so complicated. And by the way, this announcement was by Marco Rubio. So that's why he said, now my boss Donald Trump is going to personally handle the file of ending the war in Sudan. And this kind of like makes you just wonder, if you are sort of, uh, in the know as far as the geopolitical landscape and so forth, you'll be shaking your head because this has nothing to do with the welfare of Sudan. It has to do with two countries, and the two countries are China and Russia, especially with the statements that came out of Moscow for the— within the last 48 hours regarding the intentions of Russia to build a naval base. By the way, this is nothing new. I talked about it 2 and a half years ago. There were talks at that time that I said, Mike, my word, Russia is going to move in into building a naval base in Sudan. The reason why the US wants to go in, because the US wanted to control, uh, first of all wanted to contain China, which is not going to work, and wanted to limit Russia's influence in the region. But one of the key aspects that the US wants is to control the Red Sea. That's the American desire. That's why I want you to understand why all of a sudden Donald Trump is interested in Sudan. So, and the third headlines has to do with Europe. Europe, European leaders now saying that they anticipate a war with Russia. I don't buy that personally, and again, my opinion. I don't see Russia going into a war with Europe, not but that they cannot do it or they cannot afford it, it's just they don't want it. So, and Russia, Europeans, we stand no chance And this is where the difference between what the leaders are saying versus what the population in Europe— so here is what happened. It was a wide-ranging poll that was just conducted in Europe shows that a large segment of the Europeans believe that the risk of a war breaking out between their country, whatever that is in Europe, and Russia in the coming years is high or very high. Okay, the question that was asked about this, whether their countries can fight the Russians, and most of the, the responses to this poll suggest that their country, whatever country that is, Germany, France, Britain, whatever, defense capabilities in the events of such war are very weak in comparison to the Russians. This is what the poll has suggested. So it gives you an idea right there. I don't foresee a war between Russia and Europe. There is no way. The only condition that will happen if Moscow is attacked or if any missiles is launched from within Europe or even from Ukraine, if the missile was provided by the Europeans. Other than that, it just hypes the European leaders are misleading their All right, let's get into our analysis here, and, uh, I'm gonna start with, uh, the idea now of Israel wanting to strengthen Taiwan's missile defense capability. First of all, anytime you hear a move like this by Israel, make sure to understand that the US fingerprints is behind it. Israel will not do anything unilaterally like this. Israel might do some other things, so which— that's a conversation for another day. Suffice it to say right now, what Israel wants to do is to strengthen this defense capabilities through secret cooperation. And this is what now angers the Chinese. The Chinese looking at it like a stab in the back. Why will Israel involved in some— gets involved in something like this to begin with? And the reason why China is so furious, which by the way, China decided to approach this quietly, unlike what they did with Japan, which is a different story. But the reason why China is so furious, if you only understand the relationship that exists behind the scenes between Israel and China. And I'm going to detail some of this because I remember back in my days in Washington, DC, uh, we were aware of certain, uh, certain, uh, uh, uh, ventures that Israel embarked on with the Chinese back then. But here is so far what China is doing. China is retaliating by doing one thing, and the thing is accelerating military support for Iran. And that is where creating this escalating tit-for-tat dynamics across two critical regions, the South China Sea and the Persian Gulf, or Middle East or West Asia. This is what the key about it. So this emerging conflict, in my opinion, and I call it— I use the term emerging, uh, between Israel and China, represents more than just an isolated, uh, what's the word I'm looking for, regional dispute, because it signals, in my opinion, a fundamental realignment. So where you have Taiwan Strait tensions and you have Middle Eastern security become sort of increasingly interlinked, this is where the problem is. Interlinked in a way that as theaters for conflict, but also sort of interlinked in, as theaters in the broader US-China strategic tensions or competition or rivalry, whatever term you want to use. So with both sides, we're talking about both sides now abandoning, both sides meaning Chinese and Israelis, abandoning traditional restraint and accelerating military capabilities, this is— comes with a concern and a risk with this. The risk of miscalculation and regional destabilization has intensified significantly. This is why I was waiting to confirm certain information before I'll do this for you. So the next question we're going to ask: is Israel in discussion to help Taiwan develop missile defense system similar to its own Iron Dome. And I'm going to share a picture with you of the Taiwan Patriot missile defense, which is an American here. But you all know, you all saw the missile defense systems didn't work when Ansarullah launched missiles. When Israel— when— I'm sorry, when Iran launched missiles in, uh, at Israel, all the US defense system didn't work. The, the Sling, the David Sling, uh, uh, defense system, the Israeli one, didn't work. The Iron Dome didn't work. So what makes the Israelis think they're gonna build, uh, something for Taiwan that's gonna withstand the Chinese missile, knowing— this is where the kicker is— knowing that the Chinese missile technology is far advanced? And that is what, what prompt, at least for me, what prompted me to I really consider doing this for you. So, so what you have to understand is that there is now an indication— it's been— now it's open— indications of cooperation between Israel and Taiwan on a missile defense system. It's nothing new, but it's been accelerated. So you have now the— here is what happened just as of September. It was a secret, uh, uh, uh, visit by none other than Taiwan's deputy defense minister. His name is Paul Horn-Hu. I couldn't find his picture there to share it with you. And that's when he made the secret trip to Tel Aviv in September, and the purpose for it was to advance some sort of cooperation on Taiwan T-Dome. It's called T-Dome for those who are familiar with Taiwan's weaponry. This one here is the, uh, the Taiwan Patriot missile defense system. But they want— Israel is helping them work on what's called T-Dome missile defense system, with discussions now between Israel and, and, and, uh, Taiwan, the, the, the, the state of Taiwan, the— yeah, between Taiwan and Israel. The conversation also is involving some sort of advanced type of radars and the missile technology transfers. So if you are China, you're gonna be just shaking your head as to what the heck is wrong with Israel. Why will Israel do this to begin with? So Taiwan has been the— you know, we, we all know this— been developing its own system called the T-Dome. Of course, it's the US providing all this, so which is intended to sit atop Taiwan existing missile and radar network and to improve how different systems work together. That was the whole objective of all this. And this is where you have the Taiwanese governor, uh, uh, Lei Chan-Te, or president, whatever term you want to use. Uh, sort of what happened is that he praised Israeli military defenses as a model for his country. That shows your lack of understanding and depth of this individual, the Governor Lee Chang-Tea. You will think that somebody's advising him and say, by the way, did you happen to see what happened to the Israeli Iron Dome, which couldn't withstand the, uh, Ansarullah or Houthi's missiles? It couldn't withstand the Iranians' missiles. What makes you think you're gonna build this T-Dome And hypothetically, if China to ever launch missiles at Taiwan, which it won't, you know, what makes you think that this will stand? And that shows me the lack of depth of this individual here, Lee Cheng-te, the governor of Taiwan. So, and this is why he stated, the Lee Cheng-te stated that Israel's determination and capacity to defend its territory provides a valuable model for Taiwan, end of quote. This, by the way, was reported by the Jerusalem Post. It does have some credibility, in my opinion, based on the reading that I've done over the years. And once again, I'm finding myself pushing back against this statement by Taiwan's Governor Lee Chianti. Once again, because I'm thinking of what the Houthis were able to do. You're talking— and I did videos for you, uh, uh, to see how the missiles from Houthis launched from Yemen hit inside Tel Aviv. Inside. That means bypassed the Iron Dome and so forth. So, and when you think about this, when you think about the funding of all this, what Taiwan is saying, they're saying that they want to pledge now up to $40 billion budget for arms purchases. I was in Taiwan, thanks to the community who funded my trip to China, and I flew to Taiwan because I wanted to be on the ground to report to you. And what I saw in Taiwan, completely different from mainland as far as infrastructure, as far as, you know, where things are. I didn't get a chance to go to the near the waters to see, uh, because at that time when I was there I was made aware of some movements of US naval assets coming closer to the Taiwan shores. But suffice it to say, on a big picture, when I compare mainland, for example, when I was in Shanghai or Shenzhen or Guangzhou or Beijing and so forth, you see the infrastructure developments far better than what I saw in Taiwan or Taipei, at least where I was. And makes me just wonder, for this Governor Lee Chianti to be allocating or wanting to spend $40 billion when you still have some issues inside Taiwan doesn't make any sense. And what, what Taiwan wanted to do is wanted to have sort of domestically produced Iron Dome. And it just doesn't make any sense. And I can see why the fear of this narrative, oh, China is going to invade Taiwan. Once again, I find it ludicrous to those who buy into this argument. How can you invite your own self? You know, that just doesn't— that's like, you know, federal government here coming and invading Texas. That just doesn't make any sense whatsoever. But one thing you need to understand, and the reason why I wanted to do this, is you need to understand that there is a quiet cooperation That is taking place as we speak between, between, between Taipei and Tel Aviv. This is what you need to understand. And it is worth noting also that China is aware of this and has expressed opposition to any potential arm deals between Israel and Taiwan. And this is why I'm thinking, will China go as far as responding with economic sanctions? Will China go as far as suspending diplomatic relations? I don't know. What do you think? In your opinion, in your opinion, if I am to ask you a question, in your opinion, will China respond by embarking on economic sanctions or suspending its diplomatic relations? So And this is where I need you to understand, and I'll take a look at your response in the chat box as we move forward here. Uh, let me just take a look quickly in the chat box to see if there is any comment from you, like, like what you had last time. Other, uh, Ripples 01 put that in regarding the someone who was just not, uh, being, uh Okay, let me see. I see something here. I'm going to remove this person because we don't have toler— I don't have tolerance for this kind of, uh, nonsense. So, oh, oh, Speaking Truth, thank you for correcting me. Uh, his name is Lay, not Lee. Lay. Lei Changti. Thank you very much. Appreciate you, uh, correcting me on the pronunciation of this. Appreciate that, sir. Now, uh, there's one thing, as I said at the beginning, I'm going to share with you some information that majority will not know, is that there has always been cooperation between Israel and China on a military front. This might shock you. Back in 2013, Israel passed some US military technology to China, and I'll provide you a link for all this. So, so, and this particular technology pertained to, to, uh, the secret US missile and electro-optics technology specifically. I was still in Washington, I think, I— because before I left, I left in 2014, so I was aware of this. And even back in 2007 if I recall. And this has to do with the transfer of this technology by Israelis to the Chinese prompted an anger inside Washington. And as a matter of fact, one of the senior Israeli defense officials had to resign, you know, and that person's name is Meir Shalit, to those who are very familiar with the story. So the head of the defense exports for the Israeli Defense Ministry resigned after the US investigation concluded that indeed that technology, which, uh, uh, has to do with the missile, uh, systems, has been, uh, uh, shared with the Chinese, especially in the electro-optic equipment, and was sent to China by Israel. So, and this goes even before You know, once again, I just never had the opportunity to talk to you about this. I was aware of it even with the CIA director back then in the early '90s. The CIA director at that time, James Woolsey, uh, during, uh, uh, an intelligence, uh, subcommittee hearings, because it was a closed session at the time, the Senate Government Affairs That's where he told the Senate Committee— Government Affairs Committee, rather— that Israel had been selling US secrets to China for about a decade. So, which means more than 12 years ago, from the early '90s. So, and that the US demanded Israel to cancel a contract to supply China with Python 3 missile. So that's what I'm saying, you know. And this, by the way, included technology developed by the US for its Sidewinder missiles. If you— this was reported back in 2002. That's how far back. So I'm not gonna go too much into this. I'm gonna put a link for you in the chat box and you can, uh,, you can read up, uh, later on it, you know, should you decide to do so. So now where we are here— oh, actually, I need to— allow me to just play this quick clip here. Liking this video so far? Don't just be a watcher, go ahead and hit the like, share, and subscribe button, and don't forget to tap the bell so you will not miss any of my videos or live streams. This way, you will be supporting a channel that stands for the truth and objective reporting. The choice is yours. Thanks for your support. Make sure, make sure, guys, stay with me till the end, because at the end I'm going to be providing you, uh, really the potential scenarios, because I see this going a different direction. I hope it doesn't, but I'm gonna provide you the info and you'll reach your own conclusion. So now the, the logical question we have to ask is how furious, how furious is China over Israel's move by sharing this kind of technology with Taiwan? So, well, most of the— where, if you know where to look for the information, all the reports or the analyses that has came out pertaining to this, in some sort of, uh, close circles, if I may use the term, uh, have expressed that, that have, uh, uh, suggested that China expressed frustration and pressure over the Israeli-Taiwan cooperation. So some always said, no, no, no, no, China is not furious. I think it is. It's just China is not showing it, like what the way they did with, uh, Japan. It's different. So, and then China decided to, you know, sort of, uh, uh, contain itself regarding exploding as far as its anger. Doesn't want to do that. So, because here is what happened that you need to understand. China's embassy in Israel issued a sharply worded statement by which it condemned what is called as erroneous, erroneous words and acts, in quote. Usually in a diplomatic terminology, when you use the term erroneous, that usually carries a lot of weight and a strong message by an Israeli lawmaker during the visit. Remember, I did mention it to you a few weeks ago when an Israeli member of the parliament visited Taiwan. And that's because at that time, the Chinese accused the Israelis of violating the One China policy. So, and that's where China suggested to this member of the Knesset to study Chinese history so they will have an understanding about, uh, uh, about Taiwan being a part of China. So now, so far, as I said, China's response has been notably restrained compared to what might have we expected. Once again, look what happened with Japan. Okay, so a delayed reaction from Beijing to an Israeli parliamentary visit to Taipei, which was, by the way, in April. Only came a month later because the response of the Chinese came only towards the end of July, which, by the way, puzzled some geopolitical analysts as to the apparent timing of it. Once again, Beijing doesn't do things in a random, at least since I've been start— start— since I've been reading about China's foreign policy stuff and so forth. I've always learned, I've learned over the years that China will not react. They don't react emotionally. They are very, they can be restrained because they have a strategy in place. This is one of them. So, and this, what this suggests to me is that Beijing may be carefully, carefully, yeah, and strategically calibrating its response to Israel right now. Because what is— what China's trying to do now is trying to enter into some sort of diplomatic charm with Israel's ambassador to Beijing. That means they can smooth things out quietly. But at the same time, you think about the broader context matters. Like I always say, in international relations, the optics matters. The fact that Israel wants to arm Taiwan, it shows you that Israel doesn't care for the One China policy. Israel will go following the footsteps of the US, will support tensions in the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait. And this is where you see, uh, because China also was careful during the Gaza War. What did China do? China's balanced position and its growing defense cooperation with Iran have also frustrated Israel. This is when you need to understand why the second war or conflict between Iran and Israel will not be good for Israel, because what China has, has done since the first conflict between Iran and Israel is that it provided massive armaments, especially when it comes down to defense systems. And I'm going to be detailing few of these aspects here. And this is where you have to think in terms of the ties with Beijing cooling off. Israel appears less concerned about sort of provoking China. That's their thinking. So the thinking in Tel Aviv, oh, China is in— maybe not is, maybe is in a weaker position to strongly pressure Israel over Taiwan, given their own shifting relations. Uh, I don't see that. So the analyst that came up with this particular assessment, I just don't see the rationale and the justification for why China will be in a weaker position of this. Yeah, China's response is completely different in comparison to what China did when the former Prime Minister not the former, but rather the current Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takahashi made the statements he made and provoked China. So suffice it to say, the Chinese, while China has certainly objected and continue to object formally to the Israeli-Taiwan defense cooperation, the response appeared to be rather sort of muted than outrage or explosive, like what we saw in the case of Japan. So, and the reason for that, China's thinking strategically. China seems to balance its concern about Taiwan with its broader interests in maintaining some level of dialogue with Israel. That is the reason, the way I see it, moving forward. That's why— and when we get into addressing the, uh, missile systems of Iran, you will understand why. So the next question we ought to ask is, will China retaliate now by arming, uh, Iran to improve its missile, uh, capabilities? What I mean by this, basically, will China share sensitive missile technology with Iran. That is what I meant by this question, even though I just framed it in a normal sort of terminology. And that in itself, from the perspective of China, there will be a retaliation. So, so China has already actively been supporting Iran missile capabilities. And of course, this seems less like a direct retaliation for Israel-Taiwan cooperation and more like some sort of, uh, an ongoing strategic partnership that predates the recent developments. Because remember, China and Iran have entered into some, uh, long-term, uh, economic, strategic and economic, uh, contract, 25-year strategic, uh, partnership. China also imports massive amount of oil from Iran. So Iran also purchased some types of weapons from China. So China, at the same time, China has quietly some sort of supplied Iran with military components that help rebuild and upgrade its ballistic missile systems, like what we are seeing here. This is the Zolfaghar missile. These are, I think, about between 1,200 and 2,000 if I'm not mistaken. So this is what China's been doing, is upgrading the ballistic missiles for an air defense systems for Iran with the shipments of Chinese cargo planes landing in Iran following Israel's airstrike that cripples Iran's existing arsenal. That's what's important to understand, the importance of this. So, and as a matter of fact, The scale of support is very substantial, meaning support from China towards Iran. This is why I am thinking Israel is thinking now twice about just going and attacking, and attacking Iran again. The US will think twice about that. Means both Israel and the United States are in the know of of how much, uh, uh, China's technology has been shipped to Iran to upgrade its defense systems. That's the way I look at it. And one of the examples is just since the end of September of this year, the end of September, and it has been reported, uh, and, and I'm gonna share, uh, uh, a link with you, is— it has been reported that Iran received from China about 2,000 tons of sodium percolate. Now you might ask yourself, what is this sodium percolate? This one is a missile fuel precursor. It's enough to build about 500 ballistic missiles. Just think about it. This is why when I did the video for you about Iran warning, uh, uh, Israel that it will be in a position to launch 2,000 missiles all at once, which means the Israel defense system will be overwhelmed massively thanks to this 2,000, uh, tons of sodium percolate. So, and also Iran received about 1,000 tons of the same material few months earlier, to be exact, in February 2025. That's why it's important to understand. But with all these dynamics, you have to think about the strategic timing, the strategic calculus of both countries. So to China, because China's reluctance to fully support Tehran stems from concerns Because China also will have to have concerns. You don't just go and support country blindly. You don't do it. That doesn't work that way. So it has to do with China's concern over Iran's military capabilities, because it became clear to China that Israel successfully, uh, uh, the strikes he conducted exposed the weakness in Iran's defenses. And that in itself prompted China to decide to help rebuild Iranian capabilities as part of what Beijing view as known as a, a strategic necessity. Why, you may ask? Because Beijing wants to maintain influence in the region. Simple as that. And by helping Iran, it will be able to achieve that. That's the reason why I did the two previous analyses for you regarding the Middle East. You have to understand this dynamics. On the other hand, this appears to be driven by a long-term geopolitical positioning rather than a specific tit for tat response to Israel-Taiwan missile defense cooperation. From— this is from the Chinese perspective. So China can now recently buy more Iranian oil without being sanctioned. China can also secure future contracts to rebuild Iran's economy. China can also ensure Iran won't pivot towards the West after its military humiliation. And all this suggesting that this interest, those are strategic interests, were already, were some sort of aligned before. This was before the recent Israeli-Taiwan developments. Like I always say, for the Chinese, they think long term, they look very far. It's part of their culture. They don't think the next year, next 2 years, 4 years. They think about 5, 10, 15, 20. So, and with this comes the, uh, logical question of what are the geopolitical and security implications of this tit for tat between Israel and China? Because we have to consider that aspect. Because when you think about, and I have another picture. Yeah, this is a Shahab too. Missile that Iran developed. This is a Shahab-3, which is a long range. You know, how do you think Iran achieved all this? Yeah, it's not overnight. You have to think about China's support behind closed doors, so, or behind the scenes rather. Now, as I said, you have to think about what the geopolitical and security implications, uh, for this, this escalation between Israel and China, which is quiet now, but there is an escalation there. There are tensions behind the scenes. This dynamics between Israel and, and, uh, and China has several significant geopolitical and security implications, and I'm gonna share a few with you, 4 or 5 points. So number 1 will be regional power realignment. Because that is what's at the heart of it. The Israeli-Taiwan-China triangle— usually when you say the Israeli, you put forward slash US, but we for now will just stay with it as is. The Israeli-Taiwan-China triangle represents a fundamental shift, in my opinion, in how regional powers are positioning themselves, given the changes of the geopolitical landscape. So by having Israel arming defenses, Israel is effectively choosing sides in the Taiwan Strait dispute, because that's the message Beijing is reading, which basically contradicts Beijing's core interest, the One China policy. Simultaneously, China's deepening military support to Iran directly threatens Israel's security. And this is where these dynamics create some sort of a strategic seesaw where moves in one region reverberate across another. This is the importance of understanding the dynamics of geopolitics. Really, I mean, I wish didn't happen, but this scenario, what's going on, is the pure— is the perfect example for how geopolitical dynamics can really shift the priorities. Number 2 will be the weakening of traditional restraints. As I mentioned earlier, so Israel appear less concerned about provoking China, given cooling ties following the Gaza War and China's growing defense cooperation with Iran. And this, in my opinion, suggests that both sides— meaning, meaning Israel and China— both of them are abandoning the strategic restraint that previously characterized their relationship. And when usually, and it's the norm in international relations, when actors stop worrying about mutual escalation, the risk of miscalculation increases significantly. This is the scenario that I see in Europe. This is the scenario that I see in Latin America, especially now with China warning the US regarding Venezuela. And this is, of course, what we see, what we saw in Ukraine at the beginning when the US pushed for this and the Russians were saying, don't do it, because that was the miscalculation on part of the West. So third one, broader US-China competition or rivalry or tensions or whatever term you, you want to use. Because basically the way you look at this is that this dynamics fits into this larger US-China strategic, uh, aspects, competition, rivalry, tensions, whatever term you want to use. China made it clear the One China policy first of all had to be observed, and second, China made it also clear that arming Taiwan to the teeth is going to be a problem. And this is why Taiwan's military strengthening through Israeli assistance will strengthen the US-led alliance system in the Asia-Pacific. On the reverse, or the opposite side of that, China's support for Iran counters and reduces American influence in West Asia or the Middle East. So the two regions are becoming increasingly linked as some sort of a theater for broader great power struggle. No different than what we said— that what I said 2 and a half years ago, actually, as a matter of fact, 3 or 4, what I said about Africa. I said, mark my word, Africa is going to become a geopolitical ring where the major power is going to be competing. And here we are. That's why Donald Trump all of a sudden wants to take the file of Sudan by ending the war. Donald Trump care less for any African soul, or any. Remember how he described Africa back then? You know, what makes you think that he's going to care for that? So suffice it to say, that's what I wanted to provide the comparison to. Number 4 will be destabilization of multiple flashpoints. We're not dealing just with one. So, so in my opinion, the way I look at it, this tit-for-tat between Israel and China, which is quiet by now, creates some sort of instability across the two critical regions simultaneously. This is why the, the US wouldn't be able to manage all this anyway. So the Taiwan Strait and the Middle East or West Asia, because the way you look at it, if tensions escalate in either location, there is now, there will be now some sort of a direct linkage that could draw multiple powers, making conflict harder to contain. I can just see it. I can see it in the the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea, whatever you want to call it, I can see the involvement of both Russia and North Korea. In the Middle East, I can see the involvement of Turkey to a degree because Turkey wants to ensure it plays a role in the Middle East, but I can also see the role of Russia and China, and I will not rule out North Korea. So the, the, the point number 5, It has to do with technology and arms race acceleration, because that's what you're going to be seeing the moment you start transferring technology. Uh, this is why the US, uh, uh, conducted the investigation back in 2007, '08, '09, and '10 and concluded that Israel was selling technology to the Chinese. So, so the arms race acceleration, so both sides, meaning the Chinese and the Israelis, are investing heavily in military capabilities. Of course, Israel is not investing much. We're giving them everything. Let's just be straightforward about it. I mean, you look at, uh, their healthcare system, their education, everything is funded by the US, our tax dollars. Straightforward. And I'm not saying something that I don't know whether majority of Americans understand that. I'm having a hard time that I am paying taxes that goes to support another country completely, the education and healthcare, uh, that's a— that's to me a problem. I don't mind helping, but there is a limit. So both countries, as I said, heavily involved in military capabilities. And when you have Israeli developing advanced air defense systems, those air defense systems are provided by the US. So, so let, let me just, uh, put that for the record. So Taiwan, even though they're saying they're building their own T-Dome, Taiwan Dome, but building indigenous, uh, systems. No. Yeah, they might have here and there. The US will help behind the scenes. And now Israel is doing so. And China is of course improving Iran's missile technology. And this is where you look at this type of missiles that, uh, uh, uh, Iran developed. Re— uh, lately, you know, this one, by the way, they updated on 2024, to my knowledge. Uh, the same happened to Shahab-2, and the Shahab-3 also was, was updated, uh, or upgraded recently. And when you ask yourself where this upgrade came from, that's to me the answer, because Russia is providing different types of assistance, militarily speaking. To, uh, to Iran. And this accelerates, in my opinion, what the Israelis are doing, what the Chinese are doing. They are, in my opinion, accelerating the regional arms race, and that's where it makes the technological gap more consequential. So, and of course, why is this important? Because it could lower the threshold for a conflict. And the last point I want to share with you before I'll do the— my conclusion about the likely outcome to all this. The last point for that is the diplomatic fragmentation. So the cooperation suggests, in my opinion, again considering all the facts, diminishing incentives for diplomatic engagement. It's almost like what I saw between Japan and China. Why the heck will Japan go and provoke China? And what makes us think that China will consider diplomatic engagements with the Japanese? I could see the same argument, except not at the same level of intensity, because the response to Israel versus that to Japan China approached it differently. So when both states view a relationship as a zero-sum game or competition or whatever term you want to use, rather than an area of negotiations, traditional diplomatic channels— what happened to them? They become less effective. And that in itself will prevent conflict prevention mechanisms from erupting. That is to me one of the big concerns. When you have failure in the diplomatic channels, that becomes a problem. So the core concern in that they are no longer, no longer isolated regional disputes, meaning in West Asia, or the Taiwan Strait, but rather they are increasingly now sort of linked or interconnected. And that is where you have to start to think as a geopolitical analyst, strategic move, chess move, you know, any move in one location will directly shape the the calculations in the other. That is to me why I am saying to myself, Israel is not doing this willy-nilly. No, no, no, no, knowing what I know. So, so here's my conclusion for you, and the conclusion is, what are the likely outcome for this tit-for-tat between China and Israel. So I considered, based again on my reading, on my analysis, that there are some complex scenarios into all this with several plausible outcomes ranging from managed competition to serious escalation. So, so I'm going to share about 3 or 4 So let's start with the first one. First one you can consider is a managed stalemate. And if you have a stalemate, usually stalemate can be short-term, medium-term. The way I see it, in this case, Israel cannot afford to antagonize the Chinese. Chinese will not want more involvements of Israel's in this realm. Because remember, China and Israel were exchanging military technology. So the most probable near-term outcome is that in this case, both sides, the Chinese and the Israelis, some sort of continue on their posturing. Oh, we're going to help Taiwan. And the Chinese say, sure, but we're going to arm Iran. Israel quietly supporting Taiwan defenses while at the same time China steadily arming Iran without direct military confrontation between the two, meaning Israel and China. It won't happen anyway. So both have strong incentives to avoid the direct conflict. No, of course Israel would stand no chance. Let's just put this out. So Israel faces regional isolation already, and if it escalates further, it will be even detrimental. It already is. So China, on the other hand, if it gets this tit-for-tat to go to another level, risks overextending itself militarily across a different theater. Meaning West Asia or Middle East. If you notice, does China have any military bases around the world? The only one, and it's not even a base, it's just a section of a port in Djibouti. I was there, I saw it with my own eyes. And you know what it does? Fueling. That's it. So this is why, in my opinion, this creates some sort of a tense at least sustainable equilibrium between both Israel and China, though you will see some sort of a diplomatic flares up and posturing once in a while. Second one, gradual decoupling and hardening of blocks, meaning on each side. Now, over time, and this when you enter into the long term, over time you see this tit-for-tat dynamics likely drives Israel and China into increasingly opposed camps. There is one camp here and there is another camp here. So, so Israel will be with the US, of course, and China will be with Iran, Russia, North Korea, and others. So that's what I meant by opposed camps. So Israel will deepen ties with the US. Led alliance system and Taiwan in this case, while China consolidates its partnership with Iran, Russia, and other powers. So, and this in itself, if it happens, use history as your guide. What are you looking at here? You're looking at mirroring the Cold War block formation style, and that creates We're talking scenarios here, guys. Just bear with me here. It's not— it's gonna happen. We're talking scenarios. I just want to get you ahead of time, ahead of the curve, if I may use the term. And this in itself will create more rigid geopolitical boundaries. And that in itself, should that happen, it would reduce any, any opportunities for negotiations. The third element will have to do with the regional spillover, and that's when you have the escalation of a crisis. That's, to me, not good. When you think about this interconnectedness that exists of these conflicts in one region and another, so what does it do? It creates vulnerabilities to escalating crisis. That is the problem. A military confrontation in the Taiwan Strait, which I do not foresee anyway at this time, because it won't be pretty and we will lose. China has the advantage. China doesn't have the logistical challenges we will, or any other force will decide to go to fight in Taiwan Strait or South China Sea. But we go with the argument, a military confrontation or a scenario rather, a military confrontation in the Taiwan Strait could trigger Iranian responses against Israel because to Iran, it will say it's now or never. It could also go the other way around. Israel might strike before because they will be thinking, we better take care of this now before it's too late. And the example is if China goes in into Taiwan, which is not going to do that way anyway, but we go with this scenario. Iran might launch airstrikes against Israel targets. They proved that they can sort of break through the Iron Dome, and that in itself will force Israel to respond militarily, with simultaneously managing a Taiwan crisis, which I don't see them capable of doing both, responding to Taiwan, responding to Iran. But the problem with this is that this particular scenario could rapidly spiral beyond anyone's control. That is, for me personally, where my fear and concern is. Number 5 is the proxy conflict, like exactly what we are witnessing in Ukraine. And that's usually when you enter into asymmetric warfare. Rather than direct conflict, the competition might intensify through proxies and asymmetric means, meaning that China could support Palestinian groups if it wants to, or any other anti-Israeli actors. Israel could back the Uighur independence movement, remember, or any other group opposing Beijing. And that in itself keeps tensions high while at the same time maintaining some distance from outright war. And, and, and I know this kind of scenarios, we've, we've done them before, especially between India and Pakistan. We use that, we create them even for China itself. I can't tell you how many times the, the, the trial for the, the, uh, regarding Tibet or this Uighur issue. Number 6 will be the accidental escalation through miscalculation. This is a possibility, and that's again one of the greatest risks. And the, the sad part about this, the greatest risk that may have been unintended escalation. That's where the miscalculation comes from. So as both sides become more committed to their positions and less willing to back down, a minor accident, a military encounter, a miscalculation, a cyberattack, or a miscommunicated message That's all it takes. Could trigger some reaction neither side anticipated or even wanted or even considered. That is where part of the problem. And of course, in the world of geopolitics and dynamics like this, you always have to have one specific element. When you do analysis, you always have to have this specific element, and that element is the role of uncertainty. Did we expect the Ukraine-Russia conflict to take this long? No. Did we expect the fall of, uh, of Hosni Mubarak during the Arab Spring? No. Did we expect the fall of the Assad regime? No. Did we expect the, the, the turnover of Gaddafi and so forth? That's my point. So the outcome ultimately depends on factors neither side fully controls. That is what uncertainty will be. So whether the United States will maintain its commitment to Taiwan, which usually commitment in words. Mike, my word, hypothetically a war breaks out there, well, we're not sending our troops. You're going to let the Taiwanese fight. You know, that's going to be in the front line. We will be in the back. Oh, we'll provide you weapons. It's the same thing we are doing in Ukraine. It will be no different. And that's one thing I hope Japan and South Korea and Australia and Philippines understand. So, so, and this is why I'm saying the US will maintain the so-called commitment to Taiwan. Russia's possession will evolve because that's closer to them. Internal political changes in any of these countries will of course happen. That's going to impact the direction. And of course, you're going to have to consider part of this uncertainty where the world will be technologically, the breakthroughs. And any, any breakthrough in technology, of course, is applicable to military, and that in itself will shift the balance of power. Militarily speaking. And that in itself, meaning the uncertainty, is already destabilizing because you don't know what are you going to plan on. You can plan on all that, you still have that element of uncertainty. So the least likely, and I'll conclude with this, the least likely outcome is actual resolution or rapprochement. Both sides meaning both sides, Israel and China, view their core interests as some sort of zero-sum, making compromises difficult. That's what I hope they can understand. And of course, the, the most dangerous outcome will be a sort of a trigger event in, in either region, and that in itself will force or compel simultaneous military responded across both theaters, and that a scenario could become rapidly uncontrollable. That is where my fear is, and that is why I wanted to share with you. And I am at the top of the hour. That's all I have to share with you regarding this. It's because I need you to understand this dynamic. So I have two more topics, I think, one or two to conclude this week's analysis. Please drop me a comment, let me know if you do like this analysis or not, because if you don't like this style, I won't do it. But I, I like the community to be part of this, so please make sure to share with me your insights, how you see this, if it is worthwhile your time, and, and, and it helps further your knowledge. I would greatly appreciate appreciate it. So, and don't forget please to hit the like button and share, uh, your, uh, share the video with others. So, all right, let me see if there's a question. I'll take a question or two if there is one quickly here before I sign off here, because I usually have to go and, you know, I usually— here is what I do, just to let you know. I take a break here and go work on my next topic for you, because I have to do a lot of reading, I have to do a lot of research. This is the type of information and, and, and analysis that I provide you here in this channel. Uh, I don't talk about Kyriakos playing, I don't, I don't have time for that. And, uh, so your support is greatly, greatly appreciated, uh, for, for this, should you ever decide to do so. I will I would greatly appreciate it. So let me see if there's a quick question from you, and if it is, just put Q. I know it's a question. I would greatly appreciate it. All right, and thank you to all for, you know, contributing to the intellectual conversation here. I truly appreciate you for that, and keep the conversation civil. And, and, and I'm very grateful. I can't manage all this by myself here, so I'm— I, I count on you. I count on you, and I'm, I'm grateful. Oh, oh, you got a point here. I'm gonna share this, uh, hold on a second. I'm gonna remove this from the screen here. I'm going to share this particular statement here. It makes a point. And thank you, thank you for sharing this. Follow Americans: if you are not using your free speech to criticize the warmongering supporters of genocide, big greed, endless dollar, big lies, and so wars and so forth, what the hell is the point of having it? Yeah, you got a point there. I agree with you. My criticism is It's not because I don't— not like my country, whatever. No, no, has nothing to do with that. I know some always categorize me as being negative about America. No, no, that doesn't work that way. I have to address this because it's my responsibility towards ensuring that the government is doing what's right by us, that the government spend our tax dollars on us, and that becomes my duty, my responsibility to do so. Simple as that. So thank you for sharing this, truly appreciate you for that. Okay, uh, let me see, I'm, I'm just scrolling all the way to see, uh, yeah, there's one question here, uh, one question: what are— what's your opinion on China-Russia-India relations? Uh, yeah, it's moving into some directions that is not clear, mainly from part of of the Indian one. Why? Because it will be a mistake, in my opinion, if both Russia and China enter into a strategic relationship with India. That will be a fatal mistake, in my opinion. I disagree with Professor Sachs, uh, who recently disclosed that, uh, uh, uh, the economic growth and potentials for India are great. I respect— he's an economist, he understand You know, I respect his knowledge, but when I disagree, I will say so. I completely disagree with Professor Sachs regarding this. My, my, my approach as geopolitical analyst from a strategic perspective, it does not make any sense whatsoever to enter into a strategic partnership with India. Why? Because India does not have the necessary ingredients for it to be positioned at that level. That's the only way I see it. So till they figure out how to fix that, then it makes more sense. Uh, uh, that's, that's the only way I see it. All right, let me see another quick question here, if there is one. Uh, uh, let me see. And by the way, I am going to do a special live stream for the channel members and also the Buy Me a Coffee members, in which I'm gonna be doing a Q&A session. It's going to be just for the members because I have to do something for the members. You all, you all will agree with me that you have to do something for the supporters like that. So, uh, oh, Kevin James, good to see you, Kevin. Should do a question, should do an analysis on China, Wang Yi visit. Actually, I, I did think about it yesterday when I mentioned the headline, and I will do one for you given that I wrote about that particular strategic partnership. I'm not bragging here, but I did talk about it few years ago. I said back then, and I will share it with you, I'll share with you the excerpt from the book. This is what I foresee a strategic partner, and here we are. So I'm gonna do an analysis for the community, Kevin. Thank you for your question. Uh, yeah, you, uh, Speaking Truth, you are right, Professor. By the way, just for the record, in case Professor Sachs is listening to this, I did email Professor Sachs extending an invitation for him to come on this channel, and he and I, we, we kind of discuss this issue about India becoming a global economic powerhouse and so forth. But I haven't received a response, so it's— I move on. I don't, I don't, I don't chase people. That's just my, my nature. So I'll see one more question here before— oh, and I'll— why not, we'll do a statement. Here's from, um, Faradon, uh, de la Paix. So always very good information and analysis from Mr. David. It's privilege for us, for all of us. Thank you so much. You are most welcome. And here is one thing I need you to understand, you know, a person in, in my position like this, giving this analysis, is only as good as the community he he or she is serving. That's how I look at it. I am serving our community. It's because I am also learning from you. Why do you think I spend my time reading all the comments? It's because I learn each time. I learn something from some of you. Most of you have something to say. Yeah, you can word it anyway, I will get the message. So, so thank you very much for your kind comments. It means a lot to me coming from you and all the community. And I mean it when I say it's people and viewers, supporters such as yourselves, is truly what keeps me going. And I'm saying it, and you know me, I don't sugarcoat things. I don't do these flowery speeches and all that. I say what's in my heart. Simple as that. I hope you enjoyed it. I look forward to seeing you next time. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, bye-bye.