Hezbollah Bombed Mossad Headquarters w/Qadi-1 Missile!

All right, hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Excited to be with you as always on this Friday, 27th. Uh, by the way, before I forget, guys, remember to join me tonight at 1900 hours, 7 PM, for my conversation with Carl Zha. So anyway, I got an interesting topic for you today. Like I told you, I'm gonna be doing updates on, on what's going on in, in between Lebanon, between Hezbollah that is, and Israel. Uh, the focus of the conversation today is going to be about the targeting of the Mossad headquarters in Tel Aviv. I'm also going to highlight some other development that just happened in the last 24 hours, but the main focus of my analysis here, it's going to be about this targeting of the Mossad headquarters. I'm also going to be providing you a historical snapshot in chronological order uh, that goes back all the way to the '80s. As far as the conflicts between Hezbollah and Israel, there are certain stages in this conflict that's been almost for 40 years now. So I decided to share that with you today. So, so I'm gonna get into it right away. And hello to everybody here, good to see you guys. I see already for you in LA, but I need to get in into this topic here, uh, uh, because Again, the— this developments requires us, you know, the speed by which the events are happening, and we have to keep up with that in understanding where this is leading to. So, so we're going to start with showing the questions. Here are the two key questions: what's going on right now between Hezbollah and Israel? This exchange of— and as a matter of fact, today, uh, uh, Israel just targeted the headquarters of Hezbollah in Beirut. Actually, they stated— the IDF stated that the main target was Hassan Nasrallah. Now, whether he was there or not, uh, they, they didn't confirm that one. And within this context, we need to ask the key question: is this an all-out, or an all-out war, or a calculated confrontation from both ends? Because if you are to think about it, if you are to analyze these developments, you know, that ain't happening in a vacuum. You're going to have to think in terms of, is— are, are each party, meaning Hezbollah and, uh, uh, Israel, also calculating the moves? Or this is now an indication for an all-out war? And that's why we need to ask, uh, all-out or a calculated confrontation? Second question that I think is irrelevant given the stage now: will Iran come to the aid of Hezbollah? So far, Hezbollah is managing things on its own. Same thing with the Houthis, they are managing on their own. And by the way, Houthis just launched today, uh, another missile into Tel Aviv. So, so this is what the, the two key questions that we're gonna have to, uh, uh, tackle today, and that's the one I'm gonna be, uh, addressing for you as we move, uh, forward into this. Well, once again, just remember to join me tonight at 1900 hours and tomorrow for my, uh, tomorrow I mean on Saturday for my community conversation. Don't miss that out because I'm going to be sharing some pictures. And on Sunday I will be releasing a recorded video about Lebanon. You do not want to miss that one. So, so now let's start with, uh, um, and I had a chance to read, uh, an analysis by, uh, a, a military expert. He's a retired Major General Faiz Adwery. I need to show you his picture so you put a face to a name, so you know anytime I mention him, you know which one I'm referring to. Uh, this is the Major General Faiz Adwery. He's, uh, I think Jordanian if I'm not mistaken, and he retired already. And his analysis so far, he's a military man, so, uh, sort of, uh, he's spot on as far as his, uh, analysis that at least that I've read so far. So, and here's the thing And, and I couldn't agree more with his assessments also that this major attack by Hezbollah on Mossad headquarters, this is significant in itself. Think of it this way, guys, just some entity decided to, to attack the CIA headquarters in, in Virginia, so which will be a big blow. Well, it is a big blow in a sense, but on the other hand, you're going to have to think about it in terms of the calculated, uh, uh, uh, action by Hezbollah because Hezbollah wanted to send a message but also does not want to put things out, uh, out of control. This is why it's measured. And, and I think in the word of, uh, uh, uh, the major, the retired major general was that, and I use his, and I put it in quote here, uh, a qualitative and disciplined shift. And I couldn't agree more. It's because when you think about it, why did Hezbollah attack, attacked the, uh, uh, uh, or targeted the Mossad headquarters? Because in this location— and I don't know if I have a picture here for you guys, uh, yeah. And by the way, this is what Hezbollah used, Qadirwan, and I'm going to get into that soon. So the point is that when they targeted the Mossad headquarters, it's the idea that a military site for military site. So Hezbollah's calculations is that it's in this headquarters, the Mossad one that's been attacked, that's where the assassinations of Hezbollah lead, uh, uh, of, uh, military leaders have been, uh, sort of hatched. The plan of, of the assassination doesn't matter, just not Hezbollah. Any, any attempt for or, or any plan for assassination is done at this headquarters. Is this why Hezbollah targeted that? Yeah, but at the same time, I need you guys to get this very, very clear. It's because that was one of also the reasons why I wanted to do this. Attacking the Mossad headquarters does not mean that Hezbollah is attacking all Tel Aviv. Let's make that clear. You know, I've already— I'm reading some, some, uh, some, uh, uh, reports from different parts indicating, well, Hezbollah attacked Tel Aviv. Hold on a second, you know, you know, the missile was launched by the Houthis into the outskirts of the areas in Tel Aviv. Now, we are not talking about downtown Tel Aviv. For this one, Hezbollah targeted specifically the headquarters of the Mossad. That does not mean, again, targeting an entire Tel Aviv. I just wanted to make that clear to you, for, for, for you guys. Because here's the thing, both sides, Hezbollah and Israel, believe it or not, they don't want an all-out war despite what you're seeing right now. It's because first of all, an all-out war will be very destructive. That's one for both, not just Lebanese. Of course Lebanon will be devastated. And second, it's gonna draw in other key players. That includes the Russians, that includes the Iranians, and of course other groups inside West Asia, or the Middle East, that is. So, and that, should that happen, of course the US will be dragged into it. I tell you this straightforward, there is no ifs and buts. Should ground war moves forward, or Israel moves into Lebanon, the US will be dragged in against its will. That tells you an idea who controls Washington, right? So now, excuse me, the idea of what was used, uh, and again, I have a lot of pictures I'm going to be sharing with you, so I'll be rotating between, uh, uh, the screens here just for you to see. Qader, Qader-1. Now this one here, Qader-1, it's a ballistic missile. I'm not going to get it too much into the characteristics of the missiles. Suffice it to say that it was launched for the first time in its confrontation with Israel right now, as of, uh, Wednesday, uh, that's when it was used. And that one, as I said, that's the one that targeted the Mossad intelligence agency in Tel Aviv. Remember, there are different locations for Mossad, but this one, because Tel Aviv has a major, uh, uh, headquarters for, for its intelligence agency. So, and the idea that Qader— why is this important, guys, to understand? So if you are to think about it this way, not only an escalation, like I said last time, I use the term, this is a different phase. What you think about it now, this is a new level of escalations by Hezbollah that we haven't seen before. I mean, have you heard before that Hezbollah used the missiles? No, and at least to my knowledge, Hezbollah is in possession of over 150,000 missiles. We're not talking rockets, that's a different story. We're not talking mortars, that's a different story, or drones. We talking missiles. This is the first time Hezbollah showing its card on a limited basis. So because, uh, and that's why I said, Qadir missile What, by the way, Qadir-1 is, uh, falls under the Shahab-3, which are Iranian manufactured, produced inside Iran. And those are basically what it was before, uh, the, the, the reason why Iran went ahead and developed that, because Qadir missile was Iran's first anti-submarine ballistic missile. Now, here is where you think where the analysis come in. Would you think that was the reason why the United States decided to go ahead and give the order to the USS Roosevelt to move out of the area? They saw something coming? Maybe, maybe not. I'm just throwing this out to you guys for you to think outside the box. So, and, uh, so And this is, by the way, Qadir, the one that, uh, let me put the picture again for you, uh, guys to see. Qadir, the one that Hezbollah used, uh, uh, as I said, it was, uh, some sort of, uh, developed from the number variant of the original Shahab-3 missile. Now, if you know anything about Shahab missile program in Iran, and I had a chance to read up on it because I disclosed it in my Iran book, They have been referred to by different intelligence agencies. They are Shahab-3A, Shahab-3B, and Shahab-3D, and even there is Shahab-3M, you know. Then you have Qadr-1 and Qadr, uh, or Anaymat. Yeah, those are the type. So this missile you are looking at The Qadr one is part or another variant of the Shahab-3. This is, once again, I, I feel comfortable saying this, guys. This is why I always said, for the US and Israel, we not dare to attack Iran because we do not know what type of missiles they have. This is just what they disclose. Of course you're not going to disclose all your— you're not going to play or show all your cards. So And this is why, uh, uh, uh, the, uh, by the way, the Shahab-3 program, even the one that's been used for the Iranian space program, because as you know, Iran has launched some spy satellites, uh, spy satellites for military use, so, and used of course for rockets. So, and the Qadr, the one that, uh, Hezbollah used, was unveiled, by the way, way back in 2007 and used by Iran in 2015. I do remember this because, again, when you do the research, when you're writing a book, you're gonna have to look at different, uh, aspects of it. But, but anyway, that's all I wanted to say about this specifically because I don't want to spend too much time on this. The focus now, it's going to be about why did Hezbollah targeted the Mossad headquarters, you know. What if— because the Mossad headquarters is the responsible for assassinating commanders. So, and of course, it was in the Mossad headquarters where the, the decision was made as far as blowing up the pagers. You all remember, you know, of course, within this headquarters, the military intelligence operates as well over there, because remember, there are three main agencies. Aman, which is a military one. You have the, uh, uh, Shabbat, which is the domestic one, and you have the Mossad, which is the foreign, uh, that deals with foreign, uh, operations and so forth. So, and this is where we ask, like, once again, I, I need to make this clear, and I couldn't agree more with Major General Dewery, that attacking or targeting rather the Hezbollah— I'm sorry, attacking the Mossad headquarters does not mean targeting Tel Aviv. I couldn't make this clear, guys, enough, because you're gonna be seeing either some videos out there on YouTube or something, or Tel Aviv has been— you, you gotta have to take step back and understand the, the real dimensions of where the operations are and what are the, uh, uh, one thing is sure is that this one is reflecting now the escalation level. To the point that the head of the army, the military, the IDF, uh, in Israel have now been, uh, stating that they are moving troops into northern Israel in anticipation of going into Lebanon. That's why I think the next 72 hours is going to be very crucial. There's already push now by France and the US for a truce between Hezbollah and, uh, and, uh, and Israel. Of course, France has to stick its nose into this because Lebanon is a client of France, and France, whatever influence left for it, doesn't want to lose it. That's the only reason. But who cares about what France does, right? So now, with this dema— with this developments, are you gonna be asking yourself the key question? Also another question: Is the land war postponed? What do you guys think? I'm going to ask you this question, yes or no, based on this developments. In your opinion, do you believe that the land war— another word, another word— when Israeli soldiers go in into southern Lebanon is postponed? Now let me just check the chat box because I need to see your answer, guys. Yes or no, straightforward. Okay, let me see here. Jimmy Jonga, you say no. Wonky, you say yes. Uh, uh, Fida, you say no. Uh, Muhammad Ali Idrisi, you say yes. Uh, Hamid Sidi, you say no. Joseph Johnson, you say no. Uh, who is this? Uh, Pomodoro Nudo, you say yes. So So I can see now your argument, guys, and it makes more sense. If you are to analyze these developments, you have to analyze them and put them or place them within the proper context. Like I said, targeting the Mossad headquarters does not mean targeting the entire Tel Aviv. So, and this is why, uh, uh, because if we are to think about, could it be, uh, by the time Hezbollah targeted the Mossad headquarters was the missing part into the plan. Now Israel will have no other reason but to go, no other justification but to go. If their intelligence headquarters, which by the way, it's a big blow, optics of it. If your headquarters, if your intelligence headquarters is targeted, that's a big blow. First of all, what happened to the defense system, air defense system? Why that missile wasn't intercepted. Even the Houthis now announced they launched a missile into Tel Aviv, and IDF are saying they have intercepted. I didn't see any confirmation of that. And also, at the same time, I couldn't confirm that it did hit inside Tel Aviv, at least not yet. So that's why I am not confirming anything like that till I know for fact. What I know for fact is that by the time the missile Hezbollah launched He went through. So, and this is where you start to think about the ground operation, how this is going to be, uh, moving, because Israel will be now thinking in terms of we have no other option but to break the will and the resistance of Hezbollah, which to me is a lost cause and a lost war to begin with. If you couldn't defeat Hamas, what makes you think you're going to defeat Hezbollah? And again, we got to be realistic in our assessment. You know, there's no emotions here involved in something like this because facts speak for themselves. Hezbollah did not play all its cards. Israel is in a— not in a good position if it does that because it will be attacked from different fronts. The US will have to be pulled in against its will. The Russians will have to step in because they have their own interest. The Syrians will have to defend their own borders. And even one of you made a comment last time, and I couldn't agree more. It was, it was a good comment that, uh, the comment was, and I'm paraphrasing here, could it be this is an opportunity for the Syrian to retake the Golan Heights? Uh, yes, it is, but it won't be easy, I tell you this. So, so if Israel thinking that, well, we're going to subjugate, meaning Israel in this case, subjugate Hezbollah to our dictates It's, it's wishful thinking. Let's just say it's straightforward. So, so, and this is why, uh, because what the Netanyahu government or Netanyahu himself will be thinking in terms of now, this is pressure on him to do something. As a matter of fact, I read this morning from newspapers inside Israel that the poll, the numbers for support for, uh, Netanyahu are going up. A lot of people inside Israel are supporting Netanyahu, uh, uh, sort of confrontation with Hezbollah. They don't care more for Hamas anymore, but they care now about Hezbollah. And to me, it's one explanation, and my explanation only, is because the concern that the Israelis have regarding Hezbollah versus that of Hamas. My own opinion. So the next question we're going to need to ask With you see— when you see this kind of developments that Hezbollah is doing this, is Hezbollah now relying on itself? Like I mentioned at the beginning, the question: will Iran intervene in support of Hezbollah? So another question for you guys, what do you think? Is Hezbollah relying only on itself, or is going to need the assistance of Iran? Yes or no? Let me see again on the chat box, guys, what you put in there. Uh, Muhtar, Muhammad Khan, you say yes. Muhtar, you say no. Iran, Muhammad Ali, you say Iran will not intervene. Athin Wu, you say yes. Karakulak, you say no, Iran should not intervene. Shane, great. Smoked Oster, Iran is a paper tiger. Okay, uh, Michael Clifton, you say no. Eric, you say no. Okay, I, I see your point, guys, and you got a point there, because so far Hezbollah is doing this on its own, but Hezbollah didn't show all its cards. Qadir missile is just one of the types. Remember, they have over 150,000 types of missiles. I do not know the exact ones. All I know is that they have a variety of the ones that Iran developed, and there are other entities that have been providing Hezbollah also, because they have to, uh, diversify, uh, the, the, the sources of its, uh, its weaponry. So, because here's the thing, why Hezbollah— why this, this scenario is different than the one from Gaza, because the setting and the environment in Gaza is different than the one from Southern Lebanon. So because the whole situation regarding Southern Lebanon is very, very different. And, uh, uh, because one thing for sure, and I'm at least militarily speaking, when you think about military tactics, uh, Hezbollah is not going to be deploying all its forces in every square inch. No, no, that would be suicide. You know, any smart, smart military leader won't do that, that because that, that would be bad. That would be bad. So now the, the idea, and I couldn't agree more with the Major, the retired Major General Dweiri, that, that Hezbollah's ability to manage the ground war because he's going to activate certain units in different locations. So which means not all the forces will be concentrated in one location. And this is why I'm saying you have to go back and analyze the attack of Hezbollah on Mossad headquarters. What is the significance of it? What is the message that Hezbollah was sending? And why Hezbollah focused on that specific aspect but not some other area, let's say, where there are civilians and so forth? The calculations of it, because it's measured in terms of, I want to retaliate but I don't want to escalate it or become an all-out war. So, and, and where the strength of Hezbollah, you know, when it comes down to ground war, Hezbollah is not going to be depending only on the, on the, uh, I have a picture here for you, on the Hezbollah fighters, right? No, you're going to be seeing fighters from different parts of the region. There's no doubt about that, and it's no-brainer, you know. That includes Yemen, that includes Syria, that includes Iraq, that includes Iran. Yeah, and even in some other parts of where the majority Shia is. That, that's the way I see it. So, and this is why for now, and I, I agree with your assessment, with your answer, guys, when you said no, that, uh, Iran will not intervene, because Iran made it clear it wanted to avoid an escalation. Because sometimes you can be thinking emotionally. I know a lot of people think, well, Iran is not doing this, it doesn't work that way, guys. It doesn't work. It's like intelligent operations. When it comes down to it, you can react emotionally. Emotionally will lead you to some, uh, bad outcome. You have to think rationally. That's probably what the Iranians are doing. So, so, because We all understand for Hezbollah is, is an Iran— Hezbollah is kind of a cornerstone for Iran's policies in the region. You know, I, I wrote extensively on it that some of Iran's foreign policy had to go through groups like Hezbollah. Yeah, so, so, and this is why Uh, so far Iran is not coming forward with this, maybe not yet, because the assumption is that Hezbollah has the capabilities to manage this at this level. Remember, it's contained. This is one of the things that I need you to understand. So I'm gonna now share with you guys about, uh, 6 or 7 key dates that I need you— this is part of history And again, I wrote the book about Iran. I disclosed some of that stuff, so I have the, the, the, the references, and I have everything that I kept. So what I'm going to be sharing with you is that, uh, when you think about Hezbollah and Israel, you think about the key dates that marks, marks the, the last 40 years in this conflict. So, so for 4 decades, you're gonna have to think about the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel have been in relentless confrontation. Those two parties. So of course, from watching and spying on each other to bombing and humiliating each other to assassinating members, so if necessary, that is. And each period, no way, and each party tried to understand more about the enemy. Because if you know anything about Sun Tzu, guys, you know, know the enemy first. You don't just fight. Well, this is one thing China is good at. They understand, they understand how tactics are. Sometimes you don't have to fight your enemy directly if there are other means by which to defeat your enemy. So I see a smart move. So, so here's the thing, the war between Hezbollah and, uh, and Israel, uh, of course majority of it have been quiet and covered. I was aware of certain aspects of it because when I was in Washington part of my background back then. So you kind of speak from experience here. And this is why, once again, guys, I can't stress enough, you know, listen carefully to other outlets whenever you are listening to geopolitics or analysis, whatever. Just keep an open mind, filter the information to understand, you know, one speaks from an experience and background versus one assumes that's what it is, are two different things. So, and, and the whole reason for why the war between Hezbollah and Israel has been for the last 40 years quite uncovered, it's because of the military strategic, uh, reasons for it. You know, there are strategic aspects and there are also military. So let's start first with 1982. I'm going to take you back to November 19, uh, 1982, specifically to a location in Tyre. And I have a map for you here. So, uh, right there you guys can see Tyre right there. Okay, why is this important? 1982, it began with an explosion that destroyed the Israeli Army headquarters in southern Lebanon in the city of Tyre. And that explosion led to the killing of 89 people, including 75 soldiers. And the Israeli Army officially attributed This to— of course, you know what they attributed to, to a gas leak, which, which we all know it's not true, you know. However, Hezbollah claimed the responsibility for the attack 3 years later and attributed it to the martyrs by the name Ahmed Kassir. He was 17 years old at that time. He's the one who conducted the operation. A year later, the city of Tyre was hit by a new attack in which 30 people were killed targeting the headquarters of the Israeli intelligence. Once again, Hezbollah attacks hit the US Embassy in Beirut in the same year, leaving— and this is why it's important for you guys to understand this dynamic— leaving more than 60 people dead. You know, then what Hezbollah did at that time also hit the US naval base, leaving 241 soldiers dead. Then here in the headquarters of the French forces, killing 58 soldiers, so that Israeli forces left Beirut and withdrew to southern Lebanon. Just let history— as I always say, using history as my guide, I refer to the history of this. 1985, to be exact, on February 16th, 1985, What happened during this time? Because what happened before that in 1979? Once again, I just want, want you to be part of the conversation here. 1979, major event, because it's tied to what I'm going to be talking about that took place in 1985. 1979. Major event, the Iran-Iraq War. No, before that, uh, Iran Revolution. Hang, you got it, Iranian Revolution. That is correct. It's very, very important, but you have to wait till 1985. Why is this important? Because it was in 1985 when an open letter was released by Hezbollah And that open letter, basically, because it was underground for years and years, the group itself was underground for a long time. And as a result of what the newspaper called it, the Shi'ite Awakening, because remember, Hezbollah is majority Shi'a, if not all Shi'a. So, and the Iranian 1979, and of course the invasion of Lebanon by Israel Army in 1982. All those events preceded 1985. What the importance of it— the open letter was to the world, uh, uh, outlined the ideological, uh, for Hezbollah. What is the ideology of Hezbollah? Which here is the key to those of you who are familiar with the Shia, uh, ideology, and of course the Sunnis, part of Muslim, but mainly the Shia here. That's what I'm going to be focused on because When Hezbollah released this letter, uh, it recognizes the fundamental principle, which is wilayat al-faqih. Those who speak Arabic, you know what I'm talking about. Wilayat al-faqih means the guardianship of the Islamic jurist. So, and this wilayat al-faqih claims to defend the poor and fight imperialism and call its enemies In that case was the US, and of course Israel as well. And of course they named them as the Great Satan and Small Satan. So, but what is Wilayat al-Faqih, or Grandship of the Islamic Jurist? It's a system of governance that has underpinned the way Iran operates, not just Hezbollah. Iran operates since 1979's Islamic Revolution. I disclosed in the book that after the revolution, a year after that, most of the Muslim Sunni countries were so scared, especially the monarchies in the Middle East or West Asia, because they were afraid that they would be toppled. So, and at its most basic, here is what the basic of what the theory of this Wilayat al-Faqih, or the guardianship of the Islamic jurist, is all about. It's rooted in Shia Islam. Which justifies the rules of the clergy over the state. It's important to understand why in Iran you have the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. He's not a president. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the spiritual one. They have president, but the Supreme Leader, that's different because of this Wilayat al-Faqih. Wilayat al-Faqih is at the crux of the Shia Islamism and fundamental in understanding not only about how Iran system operates, but also how Tehran can influence religious and political Shia networks beyond its borders. Remember, there are about 1.2 billion Muslims around the world. Out of that, you have about 175 million, uh, Shia, to my knowledge. So it's a, it's a sizable side, mainly You look at from Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, the, the United Arab Emirates, Yemen, of course, those are where the main Shia majority exists. 1996, April 1996. Why is this important? Because this coincide with the Operation Grapes of Wrath. If you know a little bit about special ops operations that took place in that, in that time, you will know. So the dates coincide with the launch of what became known as Operation Grape of Wrath. Basically, Hezbollah gained strength and began firing rockets at Israel villages near the Lebanese border, which is the northern one part, until a series of cross-border scrimmages led by then none other than this guy. Let me see if you guys know who this, uh, individual is. He passed away, by the way. Does anybody know? Can you type in, in the chat box here? He was a prime minister. And once again, guys, the, the whole reason I ask you this kind of question is just to get you involved in the conversation, because to me, that's what the community— no, no, it's not Ariel Sharon. No, not Ariel. It's Shimon Peres. Shimon Peres. That's, that's who he was. He passed away. So, so what's important about that? Shimon Peres. Shimon Peres launched a new offensive known as Great Wrath Operation, during which, by the way, the Israeli Air Force launched a large-scale bombing campaign against Hezbollah military possessions and strongholds. But the Israeli Air Force wasn't limited just to that. It included also civilian infrastructure southern Lebanon, Beirut, and the Beqaa Valley. That's why important. So under international pressure, a draft ceasefire was submitted in Tel Aviv and Beirut at the same time on April 26, 1996. Both sides, Israel and, uh, Hezbollah, agreed to stop targeting civilians and an observer group comprising— here is what I found very funny about this, not a laughable matter, but just like weird how, you know who the observer groups are? Includes Israel, Lebanon, Syria, the United States, and France. That to me doesn't make sense. You have a third party, a party that are outside the conflict because those have an interest. Get an outside. But anyway, that's what was the observer group was established to ensure compliance with the term of the agreement representing what was the major outcome of all this. You know what the major outcome of this is? That now Hezbollah at that time became known on the global stage. It was a victory for Hezbollah at that time which received, you know, international recognition for the first time. That's why I always say optics. And, and get back to our beginning of the conversation, targeting the Mossad headquarters. Like I always say, in international relations, optics matter. That's all it is, optics. Move to May 24th, 2000. What happened in the day? On this date. This date marks the withdrawal of the last Israeli soldier from Lebanon. And Labor Party at that time, it was this individual. Do you know who he is? It was a former military guy, also served as prime minister. Let me see what you guys type in here. And by the way, he's involved in some very major issue with, uh, what took place with the, the scandal in the US with some celebrities. I'm not going to say the word here, you know what it is. Let me see, uh, Rabin. No, no, not Isaac Rabin. No, no, it's, uh, Socrates Online, you got it, it's Ehud Barak. Ehud Barak, that's, that's who he was. But as I said, his, his name showed up on the list By the way, that's a conversation for another day. So Ehud Barak was elected in May 1999, and he was elected on a promise to withdraw the IDF from Lebanon after losing 256 soldiers between 1985 and 2000. However, Hezbollah continued its deadly ambushes and refused negotiations. And Israel unilaterally withdrew its forces, and Hezbollah presented his departure— this departure as a victory. This is what I'm saying, guys, using history as my guide, it will be a suicide if Israel goes in into Lebanon now, or Southern Lebanon, that is. Move to 2006, to be specifically, uh, exact, July 12th. This is the date of the beginning of the 33-day war 2 Israeli soldiers were captured during a border patrol by Hezbollah commando and taken to Lebanon. So, and by the way, there is one thing known in, in the region: if you get kidnapped, you won't end up in the location where you were kidnapped. You end up very far, far away. There is no way they can, they can find you anyway. Uh, so the Israeli forces sent to rescue them were ambushed. The team that want to ambush them which Israeli considered an unacceptable insult and announced a major offensive that would set Lebanon back about 20 years. So, but within 6 years, from during that time, Hezbollah managed to restructure itself, and the Israeli airstrikes campaign failed to stop the rocket fire. So the terrain, the terrain where IDF soldier fell into a trap set by Hezbollah fighters. Very heavy tanks stumble in a river. This is why the tactics are very, very important. And Hezbollah showed that technical and technological superiority is not synonymous with victory. And this is why 2006 war was a historic strategic victory for Hezbollah, because Israel had to withdraw completely. So, and I'm going to show you a picture of the fighters of Nakoura, uh, the Hezbollah fighter in Nakoura back then. So I, I, I found one too here. Those are the fighters back then in the city of Nakoura. If you look at, it's not detailed here on this map, guys, you won't see it. Nakoura. And, uh, yeah, yeah, I don't see. That's the only one I have here. So move to 2008, February 12th. These days corresponded with a major event that took place in Syria, in Damascus, uh, in specifically in Kafr Sousa. And the reason I know about it, because I was aware of the operation and I wrote about it. This is the explosion that killed Ahmed Mugniyeh. To those who do not know who Ahmed Mugniyeh is, he was a major figure in the military in Hezbollah. So, so was Hezbollah's second in command and mastermind of Hezbollah covert, uh, operations, and he was killed in an attack in Damascus attributed to Israeli Mossad, having overseen covert attack and operations around the world. By the way, uh, the Mossad, we were involved as well behind closed doors. Most of the Mossad operations involved the US but not MI6, just FYI. That just has always been the Mossad and the agency, uh, always work together. So, so what happened with this one here? Uh, Israeli intelligence services were, uh, so sort of, uh, uh, since they were beaten, uh, uh, their Lebanese opponents on several occasions, uh, sure, in that the death of its military logistics guy, departments and ballistic program, whose name is Hassan Lakis. It was back in 2013, so in the suburb of Beirut. That's why, uh, uh, Hezbollah, uh, sort of later on got involved in this. What I wrote in my book about Ahmed Moughniyeh, because I did this— close this one because I figured, uh, uh, the reader will need to know, uh, certain aspect. To those who got a, a copy of the book, you will find it there. But, uh, anyway, I wrote, for instance, the 3-year investigation of the Khobar Tower bombing attack on June 25th, 1996, uh, that one, uh, as I wrote back then, uh, that targeted the US military housing compound in Saudi Arabia revealed that Iran was responsible for providing logistical material support and manpower to conduct the attack. And I have the, the evidence and reference for all this one. So, uh, once Iran realized— and this is where the change came in with Hezbollah Once Iran realized its ability to support, I wrote back then, uh, attacks while avoiding any association, it engaged in more sophisticated operations of prepping agents, including Ahmed Moghnieh, who according to American and Israeli intelligence services was involved in a series of bombing, kidnappings, and assassinations. Moghnieh was able to evade capture for almost 25 years. Yeah, we've been looking for him back then for 25 years. That's how, uh, good was that evading capture. However, on one night, Ahmed Mokhnia was— on night on February 12th, 2008— and Ahmed Mokhnia was taking a stroll. He was walking where? In, in the— and I have the location here, I'm going to share it with you guys. Just for you to see. It's written right here. The spelling is different. Right here at the bottom where it says Al-Qadam in Kafar Sousa. It's right here, Kafar Sousa. You see Al-Medayin on the left is Kafar Sousa. Now Kafar Sousa neighborhood, that's where Ahmed Mughniya was taking a stroll when a powerful car bomb detonated as Ahmed Mughniya was passing near the car on foot in Kafr Sousa neighborhood in Damascus, Syria, and the car bomb ended his life because it was very, uh, to the point I even disclosed in the book, I used the term he was vaporized, uh, you know, just to describe the intensity because there was a lot, a lot of highly explosives were used in that particular event. Then what after that date came? 2023, November 3rd, 2023. This date coincide with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's speech that the keyword, all options are open. And that was the first speech by Hassan Nasrallah. Uh, let me show a picture, right? This is the picture when Hassan— this is recent one, not the old one. It just— I wanted to show you a picture. Uh, when Hassan Nasrallah, uh, uh, after October 7th, 2023, which, you know, the attacks, uh, was eagerly waited, and he, which unsurprisingly reiterated his support for, for Hamas. And so, however, just, just to put things on record, during that speech, and, and I read it, so during that speech, he refrained from calling out an all-out war on Israel. This is what I'm saying, you know, as an analyst, I have to think in terms of what those leaders are saying that, that kind of, uh, uh, uh, sort of, uh, matches the reality on the ground. So between 2006 and 2023, Hezbollah transformed from some sort of just a group or movements against Israel now into, uh, I can use the term, an Iranian weapon of mass destruction against Israel, you know. And this is why it became, in my opinion, a protective shield for Iran's nuclear and ballistic programs. It's no small matter, guys. You're going to have to think, if they are— meaning Hezbollah— using now this first missile, we don't know what they have. We don't know what's hidden. Yeah, and of course they are not going to disclose, uh, all, all the, the— so this is what's important that I need you to understand within this context. So now, just within last 24 hours, and it's, it's announced in inside, uh, uh, by the way, I read this one, uh, except that I was trying to find another source and I couldn't. Uh, within the last 24 hours, Hezbollah launched about 9 attacks on Israel. You know, it rained over 180 missiles on 5 Israeli cities, 3 military bases, IDF headquarters, and a Rafael weapons factory. Hezbollah released a statement late on Thursday claiming that Samson, Dado, and Galilee divisions, reserve bases were bombed. I cannot confirm this because when I read this one, just coincidentally, through Time of India, I was like, okay, I gotta take a step back. No offense to Time of India, it just— I have to confirm things. All I need is to share with you what I know for a fact. What I know for a fact is that Israel Army this morning just bombed what it described as Hezbollah central headquarters in Beirut, southern suburb. Here's an image of it. This is from This Morning Israel, and this was disclosed by, uh, Israeli IDF Inside Israel, and I have the link for it. So that's why I couldn't confirm the first one, because I wasn't sure, but I wanted to share it with you. So, so Israeli military spokesperson Uh, Daniel Hagari said the Air Force carried out a strike on the headquarters of Hezbollah command in Beirut's southern suburb. And by the way, Israeli used F-35s. That's the one that carried out the strikes, uh, uh, with piercing bombs. So, uh, however, despite all this, in my opinion Hezbollah still able to manage its defensive sort of battle effectively. So, so despite the Israeli strikes, I think it's still having that ability to sort of undermine the combative capabilities of Israel. So that's, that's the way I see it. So So, and this is why, uh, uh, Hezbollah— as I said last time, I couldn't think of any other word but moving to the next phase of the, uh, confrontation, uh, that exists between, uh, uh, Hezbollah and Israel. So this is what's important. And the Houthis just, just announced also they have fired a missile into, into Tel Aviv. So Oh, this is the picture I forgot to show you guys. This is back in 2006. This is the Hezbollah fighters in Nakoura. This is the soldiers. All right, this is what I wanted to share with you guys, and I'm going to answer some of your questions. Uh, once again, just to, to summarize all this, I want you to understand one key aspect, and the key aspect is that Targeting the Mossad headquarters does not mean targeting the entire Tel Aviv. That is not the case, even though Tel Aviv is a major, major city in Israel. But at the same time, is worrisome for the Israeli people that the defense air system couldn't, uh, intercept the missile, the Qader, that Hezbollah launched targeting the Mossad headquarters. So, uh, uh, the Houthi missiles, Israel said that they have intercepted and shot shot it down. I am yet to see evidence for that, but so far that's what they stated. So, so it showed me that, uh, when you're going to start having, uh, the, the launching of missiles from different directions, you're going to overwhelm the system. So, and, uh, uh, it is always my belief that Israel alone will not be able to manage a war on 4 or 5 front. There is no way, no, no force will be able to do so. There, there is no way. So, and again, we're not talking the major involvements of the major players, the likes of Russia, the likes of, uh, Iran, the likes of North Korea, the likes of, uh, Syria. So those are because the— if they come in, they're going to come in with some heavy, heavy weapons. The, the, the, the, the concern about that is we all know what it means as far as the consequences of something like this. This is why I believe Hezbollah was measured in its operation. It was very, very, very measured. So, all right guys, I am gonna go answer some questions from you. Once again, just to remind you, for tomorrow— for tonight at 1900 hours, my conversation with Carl Zah. We'll be talking about a host of issues including the contraction of the German economy. Germany is going down faster and faster. Uh, and some other topics I'm going to be talking about. Uh, uh, I also— what was something else? Yes, on Saturday I'll do the community conversation. I'll, I'll share some pictures with you. And on Sunday I'm going to release a recorded video for you about Lebanon. Maybe one day, guys, I'll do a history about Lebanon. You need to understand Lebanon as a country, uh, as a whole. So, uh, it was one particular, uh, uh, uh, comment I get from someone, by the name Mr. Hamari Cop, uh, and I'm gonna share it with you because it's very important to understand. I think the individual thought that it was me who is removing the comments. Uh, he wrote something, uh, probably, I don't know, didn't like whatever I wrote, which he's entitled to, but I didn't remove anything. Just FYI, guys, it's YouTube. I have no control over that. There is nothing I can do. I, I ask YouTube, why are you doing this? I mean, I wish I would they can give me a reason why they're deleting the comments and why they are removing the likes and why they are unsubscribing, uh, individuals from my channel. So I, I just don't understand, really. I don't know what they have against this channel, and I don't know what have I done to them for them to be this kind of holding this grudge. So, so do me a favor, guys, please hit that like button and remember to subscribe and share this video with others and ask them to subscribe. So I need you guys to help me out, cross this 100,000, because once you cross over that count, it goes in a different phase. So I really would love to have your help on this one. But here is what the individual wrote, which I appreciate him for this. My apologies, because I responded. I said, first of all, I did not, uh, uh, uh, remove your comments, and please do not spread lies that I did that. Straightforward. And he responded kindly, my apologies to you as a person. Then. But somebody on your site has somehow had two of my posts removed. First of all, nobody has access to my channel except one individual, Elizabeth. Elizabeth will not do this for no reason. So, and Elizabeth won't do it, you know. It's my decision. And, and yes, if there is someone who crosses the line, I will just remove the guy completely. And usually I won't do that Till you cross the line. I didn't even see of this, so nobody else made that decision. The individual continue, while the content of one of the posts might well have been highly critical of your views and even ironic in tone, and the other a mildly critical reply to a poster, there was nothing inflammatory or hateful in either. Nevertheless, my life does not revolve on others accepting or even, or a, or even paying attention to my views. So let it be. I repeat my apology to you and stand by my claim that two posts were removed. And I respect the guy because to me, the fact that he, this individual, start his comment with my apologies, it's a, it's a sign of strength, character. And I admire individual like this. Yeah, you can criticize me, you can disagree with me, and I will respond respectfully, of course. Now, if you cross the line and be disrespectful, I will let you have it, because I have no tolerance for that, no matter whom I'm addressing. You know, I respect people till they give me a reason not to. You know, I'll go the extra mile for you, I'll take the shirt out of my back for you, but if you cross me the wrong way, I will let, I will let you know. So, so I admire you for this, uh, Mr. Hamari Cop. So thank you so much for that. All right guys, let me go and answer some of your questions. Uh, once again, uh, I wanna— let me show this one here for— because I always like to show gratitude to those who been supporting the channel. I am very grateful. Uh, by the way, uh, uh, where is Hank? Hank and G, where are you? Right here. Right here. Thank you so much for— by the way, guys, you don't know, uh, Hangin' G support the channel behind the scenes. You know, I, I, I'm assuming he just want to keep it that way, and, and I'm respectful of that, but I need to let you know, uh, his support is incredible behind the scenes. You, you do not know the, the amount of support he's been giving the channels on, on, on both platforms, on Buy Me a Coffee and on the Asia trip. So thank you so much. If in addition to his contribution intellectually. So I highly recommend you guys read his comments and so forth. And by the way, I will follow your, uh, your advice regarding the BRICS Summit. You all remember I mentioned I would love to attend a BRICS Summit as an observer, an outsider. I'm not an official, uh, uh, but there might be some ways, uh, and I'm gonna reach out, uh, and thank you, Hank, for that advice. So I truly appreciate you for that. All right, let me see some of your questions here and I'm going to answer them. And once again, guys, please hit that like button and subscribe and share this with, uh, other people you know that they are not aware of the channel. I will greatly appreciate you. Uh, All right, let me see, uh, question. Oh, Matt Becky, that's a statement. Doc, the Western hostages in the '80s and the role played by Iran in releasing them, would you cover that one too? I, I can do that. I know a lot about it. I wrote about it. Yeah, I'll be happy to do this. But it's gonna have to wait because, uh, you guys, uh, starting I think next week, you won't be seeing me much here. You'll see me in a different setting, so without detail and stuff. And, and yes, that's one thing I'm gonna keep in mind, Matt, and I will do that. And please remind me later on. So, uh, Quantum, uh, yes, he is alive. Wasn't there So, uh, just to let you know, to my knowledge. So, all right, let me see, uh, any question from you guys. Just put Q and I know it's a question, so I'll get, uh, uh, to it right away. And thank you guys for keeping, uh, uh, the conversation civil here on the chat box. I, I truly appreciate you for that. All right, let me see. I'm scrolling down just to see because we got over, I think, what, some, uh, uh, all right, Timeline Dunkley question: Why did the H Group 2 hit the air jet base? Don't the age group to have access to satellite from Russia? Not necessarily, not necessarily, but I do not know. I don't claim to know why, why it didn't do that. Uh, you know, remember certain satellites, you don't just— this is why Iran launched its own satellite. This is why North Korea launched its own satellite, military satellite. This is why sort of China improved its own satellites that go beyond orbits. Yeah, so, so I don't know that one, Dunkley, uh, Timeline Dunkley, and I, I'll, I'll check it out later on, and if I find something, I'll share it, uh, with all of you on the community post. Yeah, indeed, that's what I was told, that the, the, the targeting— that's why I use the term bombing. I didn't use the term targeting in the title because it was bombed. Uh, now remember, that's just one location among many, but once again, it does not mean that the entire Tel Aviv was, uh, no, it just that particular, uh, that particular location as a signal or tit-for-tat regarding the targeting of Hezbollah military, uh, guys. So Uh, good question for that. Uh, yeah, Gary Bush, why do you want Israel to be destroyed? I didn't say that. I didn't say that. So please refrain from, uh, putting words in my mouth. I didn't say that. So, so I would appreciate if you could just, uh, respect, because that's to me like an insult. You know, I don't want anybody destroyed. Everybody is a human being, you know. So, so please refrain from stating stuff like that. Don't make sense. So I'm gonna be kind enough to let you be here in the chat box. Okay, so, oh, Rafael, thank you so much for being here. Like I said yesterday, everybody is off because nobody can read Putin. The man is too timid. The man is afraid of war. There's the possibility of that, but also the possibility, Rafael, that he could be calculating the, the, the consequences of something like this. Because remember, Russia is so big. Russia is so big. Okay, well, what would happen when you have, you know, being flanked from different direction? How much can you do? How much can you do? The only option left for you is the nukes. Well, we all know what it means once any country presses the red button. The consequences will be— this is why the Russians went ahead and change the nuclear doctrine. They just changed it 2 days ago, so it will be interesting. But yeah, there's the possibility of that. So it remains to be seen how he's going to approach it. So thank you so much, Rafael, truly appreciate you. Uh, Aswan, ask me, uh, do you think the division of the world economies will lead to further global conflict? I agree. And it will. It's because for us in the West, especially the US, we wouldn't want to— we wouldn't want to go down quietly because, because it just still till today in Washington, uh, the reality hasn't settled in yet that the world has changed and we need to change with it. But we're not willing to do that. We're still thinking in terms of we dictate the terms to the rest of the world. Yes, we did at some point, but that era has come to an end already. So the world is shifting. And, uh, so usually when that transition happened, what happened with it is the conflicts. So, and I hope it doesn't get to that because it will be, uh, it will be very, very destructive for all concerned. All right, one, let me see. Okay, I don't see any here, guys, because there are so many here. So that's why maybe next time we'll— I'll, I'll let you know ahead of time, prepare those questions, and I'm gonna pinpoint them exactly and do that at the end. Oh, oh, well, now you are crossing the line, man. Now you're crossing the line, you know. You are crossing the line now. So here is what we're gonna do. So the best thing to do is I'm gonna have to remove you. Simple as that. You're crossing the line. And what do you do? Those are troll, troll. Oh, oh yeah, I removed it. I, I removed that troll, Hairless Ape. I did, I did. It's because once you— once somebody starts spewing nonsense, you know, it's kind of get rid of that, uh, Let me see one last question if I came across one here, and I'm scrolling all the way down. Oh well, I'm just gonna respond to this nice comment. Uh, uh, OG Moses too. Dr. O, thank you for your presentation. You're almost welcome. You know, you guys, I don't know if you know what goes behind the scenes for me to do this, you know. Yeah, it takes time, takes time to put the information together cohesively so it will make sense to you guys, uh, but, but I, I enjoy doing this because that's my commitment to you guys. Okay guys, I'm gonna sign off here because I gotta have to, uh, uh, go get some stuff done, and I look forward to seeing you tonight Uh, uh, uh, I'll see you tonight at, uh, 1900 hours. So I once again appreciate you being here, guys, and I look forward to seeing you later on. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, guys, bye-bye.