How Will Iran Strike Israel?

All right, hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Very excited to be with you. I got this interesting topic for you about, uh, the possibilities of Iran striking at Israel. So, uh, since I wrote a book about Iran, I, I kind of put that scenario back then, uh, thinking what if the possibility that if Israel attack, uh, inside Iran, what will Iran response would be? So, and I kind of just disclosed that back in when I wrote the book. And I'm going to share something with you, uh, even though I wasn't 100% sure that Iran will do it at that time. Things have changed, and this is part of what geopolitics is all about. So, so let me say hi, see who is here, and say hi to you guys. Hope you had a, a relaxing weekend. Farhad Razavi, good to see you as always. You— hello, Doctor. Based on what I have heard and seen, Iran will play dirty this time around by jamming radars. Yeah, they're gonna— there is a lot of facets into this, and I am going to be addressing some, uh, tomorrow. I'll have an interesting guest, a former official at the Pentagon, someone who is very familiar with those kind of issues, and we're going to be addressing all this. But I'm going to be tackling some of this today, so Uh, you too, Z. Super good to see you. Uh, and yes, I did see the violence in the UK. It's, it's sad how a lie— it was based on a lie— uh, end up attacking a, a complete ethnic background people just because they happen to be Muslim. So, so it's unfortunate. It's very, very unfortunate. Uh, Cosmic, good to see you. Shingam, good to see you. Timeline Dunkley, good to see you. Uh, as always from New York. Loco Foo, good to see you. Hangin' G, good to see you. And who else? Peace Lover, good to see you. Truth Seeker, John Smith, Ahmed Siti, as always. Phil, good to see you from Ottawa. Zenitha Petroska, good to see you. Marcian Dorsier, as always. Alcitalokin, good to see you, man. Bilko, good. Karakulak, Good to see you, KL, as always. All right, guys, let's, uh, let's start on this because there is a lot to cover. And, uh, I wanted to just provide you a big picture so you'll have an understanding, at least, uh, uh, as the mainstream media saying one narrative. Because there is one thing also going on with this is the battle of the narrative. You don't, you don't ignore that one. So, but first, I want to just some housekeeping item here. I hope you all enjoyed the my panel discussion with Dr. Das on Dashaun Feng and Dr. Yan Lian, two top scholars. And, and, uh, Dashaun, uh, Dr. Dashaun Feng is, is a good friend of mine. And, and I will have them again on the panel. So I hope you learned something from that conversation. Also be on a lookout tomorrow at 12:30, uh, my Central Standard Time, for my conversation with none other than Michael Maloof, the former Pentagon official, a high-ranking, uh, official back at the Pentagon there. So I look forward to that conversation with him. So, uh, all right, the— our topics we're going to be covering today is to talk about the statements by the Iran Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who issued an order to strike Israel directly. And this, of course, in response to the assassination of none other than the leader of the Hamas political office, uh, Ismail Haniyeh, which, by the way, in my opinion— this is my own opinion— uh, it was useless. Why would you kill politically? You know, he had nothing to do with the military. He's the political leader. You know, killing him ain't gonna serve anything. They're gonna replace him within days. You know, what I found very interesting is that the main thing, the main individual who deals with the military aspects, still lives inside Gaza. And that tells you, this to me was useless by Israel, didn't make any sense whatsoever. So, uh, and that's what I'm going to be tackling today. So I got some key questions for you guys because you need to consider, uh, what questions we'll go through, uh, uh, at least we need to consider or something like this. First, uh, will Iran follow through in his threat now of retaliation? It's because so many times, and remember, like I always say, in geopolitics you can react emotionally. I know even Iran itself had its own scientist, you know, being neutralized inside, which tells me, first of all, the problem is also on the Iran side as far as its weak intelligence service. So how can you have a foreign assets inside the country, and you couldn't uncover who the mole is. So that's one. Second question is, will Tehran— what will Tehran or Iran's strike or retaliation consist of? In other words, what kind of retaliation are we be looking at? Because everybody's now waiting, you know. And of course This is a strategic move on part of Iran. You know, you put Israel on the alert. Of course you're not going to disclose when you're going to attack. They shouldn't even be announcing this, in my opinion. You don't announce you're going to be attacked. Third question is, are we looking at an all-out war in the region? Because the moment Iran attacks inside, which most likely will be the case inside, Israel is going to react. The US already moved some assets there, but all this, for the US to move its assets, it's nothing but just posturing. Do you know why? Because the Russians already sent their intelligence officers to two locations, one in, in Iran and the other one in Yemen. Iran— or Russia, rather— also It has already moved some of its advanced systems to one location particularly, and I'm going to talk about this as I move forward. And the third element within, uh, uh, the concept of, uh, of, uh, this an all-out war, it's what will Russia do behind the scenes, because it's now or never. This is why I put the term on the thumbnail, it's time. Because here is the thing, and I know it's hard to, uh, some might disagree with me, and, and you, you, of course, you're entitled to your opinion. Sometimes you're gonna have to have a war to settle the dust once for all. And I think this is just as one who spent so many years in the Middle East, worked in the Middle East with a military background and so forth. Sometimes you might have to have something like this. To be done once for all. It's because otherwise Israel is going to be repeating this over and over and over. And how long Iran can take it? So, and to Russia, this serves as a strategic, uh, uh, advantage to settle the score, if I may use the term. So, so this is what we're going to be addressing today, and, and, and, and, and I am going to get into all this. By the way, Before I delve deeper into this, in addition to what took place in London, I need to share with you something that just took place in— who can tell me who this individual is? I am sure you will know. Uh, let me see if I get the picture. All right, where is the picture? Uh, yes, I do have the picture. I just didn't, didn't, uh, put it up on there. Let me, let me put it up here quickly because I need to get your input on this because it's very, very major developments we don't hear much about. And, uh, and I want just— I'm not gonna get into the detail of it. Suffice it to say Um, who's this person here? And, and let me see, I'm gonna show it here. For some other reason, my computer is going slow. Interesting. All right, who's this person here? Can anybody tell me? If you can type in, in a chat box, and I'll tell you what happened. Let me see first before I, I say anything. All right, let me see anybody. Uh, Alistair. Oh, oh, Terry, Terry K, you got it. Shehahassina, that is correct. What happened to her? She fled the country. You know, this, this happens against the backdrop of the mass protest that took place in Bangladesh. And it's about time. She is as corrupted as it can get, and shame on her to put her interest and her family and friends' interest over the people. So what happened? The— suffice it to say, now she's considered the former Prime Minister. Sheikh Hasina resigned, okay, and took a helicopter and fled to India. That's where she went. You know, I think— and again, I am not from Bangladesh, uh, so— and it's up to the people in Bangladesh. I think they need to bring her back to the country to stand trial for corruption. And we all know how I feel about corruption. You all know what needs to be done. I'm not going to say it here on the— on this platform, but you all know where I stand. So But anyway, that's what happened. I just wanted to share this with you. So, all right, let's get into our analysis here. So I'm going to approach this topic from mainly two main angles. One is economics, and the second one is geopolitical, forward political aspects of it. Now, if you consider, if you consider, uh, that the retaliation of Iran, uh, against, uh, uh, Israel, and in return This is why I ask the question, are we going to be looking at an open, uh, an all-out war? And if that happen, what's going to be happening from an economic perspective? Because you can't ignore the first thing, the first order of business Iran's going to do. What is, what is in your opinion the first thing Iran's going to do if there is an all-out war? And again, I like to have your input into part of the conversation as we discuss. You know, one term will, will suffice for this. Which— what, what's going to happen in your opinion? Uh, yes, beside the, uh, uh, uh, beside the, uh, the age group in, in Lebanon, this is something else pertaining to economics. Think of energy. What will Iran do right away if there is an all-out war. Oh, you got— oh, oh, you got it, Sam! Sam, you got it! Blockade! No, it was Sam right there, right here. Sam, close the Strait of Hormuz. Absolutely. And if you know anything about the Strait of Hormuz, and I got a picture for you guys right here to show, if you know anything about the Strait of Hormuz, and we're not going to talk about the geography, we're going to talk about its strategic importance. Now, the Strait of Hormuz is considered one of the world— and I repeat this— one of the world's most economically important choke points. Yeah, in addition to the Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz is very, very important. So the Arabian Peninsula has the world's largest oil and gas reserves. So just consider this, for example, take Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia, the large— one of the largest oil producers just by itself accounts for about 16% of oil reserves that goes through that area. About 30%, yeah, 30% of the world liquefied gas and 25% of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz. So, and if I recall, I did a, I did a, a private presentation because I am a speaker also, and I did that for a private audience back then. I argued They were about 11 million barrels of oil was shipped, uh, out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait, just in that narrow, which is about, I think, 24 kilometers or something like that, representing 20% of oil trade worldwide. And in 2018, the last— the last figure, uh, uh, a financial figure showed that at that time It was about— the cost for it was about $1.2 billion of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz on a daily basis. So my opinion, from an economic perspective, that will be the first thing Iran's gonna do. And the reason why, and as, as I'm showing you the map here, on the side of Iran, Iran went ahead and placed some undersea bombs that if the US gets closer or any other, they will be activated. This is one of the key from an economic perspective that we're gonna have to think. And when you consider, for example, the economy of Israel has already shrunk by about 20% on an annualized terms, the shekel, the currency dropped, you know, the economy of The airports now are sort of— there's— there are no flights to Israel. Major other airlines from Europe, uh, canceled all the flights. So just from an economic perspective, uh, you see, and, and given that also for us here in the US, if we add this open war, our economy is already hit hard. Now, I don't know if you are aware, guys, of what just happened to the stock market this morning. You know, dropped by about 1,000 points. It's a major— and this is why last time on the community tab I posted for you the, the lies that our government is saying, oh, the economy is fine. What? It's a lie. We are in a deep recession here. We just do not want to admit it so we won't rattle the rest of the world. Look at just the stock markets around the world today, how they operated. And all this also because of the fear that if Iran attacks Israel, which most likely it will, what is going to do to the economy. And this is why I want you guys to understand that the dimensions to any conflict, it's not limited only to its military aspects of it. It can touch on other aspects as well, including the economy. So, and that is very, very important to understand. And this is why you have to consider also the dynamics that's taking place right now in the region. What am I referring to here? I'm referring to two main things, is that Russia has already sent its intelligence, uh, agents to Yemen. One group went to Yemen, another group went to Iran. Yeah, as of this morning. And as a matter of fact, I do have the link for this which I will post for you later on as I move forward into this. Uh, it just is so crucial for us to understand these dynamics because the logical question you're going to ask yourself is, what are intelligence— Russian intelligence officers going to both Iran and Yemen for? So it's worth considering because, uh, and this is even what the US fears right now. Because what we are concerned about is we are concerned about the support that Russia is going to provide Iran, and via or through Iran is going to be providing through its allies, meaning Iran's allies. That is where the dynamics is going to be. I'm gonna have to plug in this because I am noticing my computer— okay, let's hope it works. Uh, this is what's going to be happening. So, so the concern is that the US intelligence community already believes that Russia has already sent its military intelligence officers, and those were, as I said, one group went to Yemen, the other group went to, uh, uh, uh, Russia, and as to Iran, I'm sorry. And as a matter of fact, today Russia received, uh, Iran rather received the Russia's top security official. And that's usually, uh, a message to other foreign ambassadors inside Iran. Why? It's because Russia will be sending Iran some fighter jets, about 24 to my knowledge. So this is significant because this doesn't happen in a vacuum. When you have— this is an old picture when, uh, Ibrahim Raisi was still alive. And this is a meeting between Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, and the Russian president. It's recent. So, so this is what I'm saying. The concern now is how we're going to move forward into this. And this is what I'm going to be tackling from the geopolitical aspects of all this. So economics, you understand, it's going to be a major— but it's the geopolitical aspects that we're going to focus on. Uh, I had a chance to read up this, uh, yesterday, I think. Yeah, or the day before. I read some articles from overseas, not from here, because I know how the narrative here— when it comes down to something like this, I don't depend on, uh, the, the media here. Now, there is one article, was I think by, uh, uh, either, uh, The Times or the New York Times, one of those, one of those. But I collaborated the information and it turns out to be true, and I will address this one as I move forward. So So I had a chance to read an article, uh, by Matt Nashid, uh, who wrote this one here. Uh, there are some accuracy to it, there are some information was missing, and I'm assuming because the person didn't know the, the other side of the story because that falls under the intelligence aspects of it. So, and the bottom line to it is that what is going to be happening from a geopolitical perspective, given that Iran now issued the statements that he will strike Israel inside. This is not about attacking Israeli embassy in some other country. No, no, no, no, no. We're talking about the locations between Tel Aviv and another location, uh, uh, in, in, uh, on the east side of Israel. So Iran already mentioned this, and there is reason for that, because that's where some of the critical assets Israel has, they're going to be targeted. Because remember, the H group in Yemen already proved proved that the air defense of Israel ain't that competent. If they couldn't stop drone, are you gonna— do you think they're gonna be able to stop an Iranian missiles like this one here? I don't think so. So, and this is why the US had to go and sent, uh, its asset there, but also declared we will stand with Israel. Well, As an American, I'm asking, well, wait a minute, what are we going dragging ourselves into another war? You know, what are we going to be fighting on behalf of some other entity? I don't care who that entity is, you know. Why? Why? What's our interest into this? And let alone, we can't even fight. We couldn't even control the H group in the Red Sea, the Yemeni group. We couldn't control that. We couldn't defeat them. And you think we're gonna, we're gonna defeat Iran? It's ludicrous for us to be stating these statements. We stand with our ally Israel. Well, come on, come on. Israel dug a hole for itself, and Israel won't be able to fight on its own. Mark my word on this, and I am going to tell you why. So, so the whole idea of, uh, for those who might not know what the background is for the statements of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is because of the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, who happens to be at that time on Iranian soil. He was in Tehran attending the inauguration of the new Iranian president, and he was targeted. So he was taken out along with the commander of, uh, Hezbollah, in, uh, who was also attending. But the point is not about that. For Iran to react this, first of all, this one has two major dimensions. As an analyst, I have to, I have to explain these two dimensions because we have to put things in perspective. One is the assassination, the assassination of Esmail Haniyeh was another blow to the Iranian intelligence service. And the answer in my opinion is yes. Because now it, it shows how penetrated the Iranian intelligence service. Second one has to do with the Israel announcements that it was through a missile. It was not. It was through a planted bomb. Now if there is a planted bomb, what does it tell you? It tells you that it has to be some entities who've been involved in setting this up ahead of time. Let me, let me get something here, guys, because I need to plug in, uh, this one. Otherwise I'm going to run into an issue, because if I don't do this, uh, I'm seeing the I don't know why all of a sudden my computer start to act a lot. Okay, we're gonna allow this one. All right, this one will stabilize it. Yeah. I always find it very weird when I talk about some sensitive issues, my computer or the connection starts to act weird. I tested, the connection is fine, everything's running fine. It's just weird. Anyway, uh, let's continue our conversation. So what I said, it, it, it demonstrated two things. That, that what Israel's saying, that's one, and second is the intelligence service in Iran that is penetrated, because that's what it is. So So, and I'm not going to detail here about the, the, the plot in itself. That can be another live stream by itself. Suffice it to say that the bomb was planted in the residence where Ismail Haniya stayed, which tell me what? Again, some high-ranking— yes, I will feel comfortable saying this knowing I used to work in Washington. I understand this kind of dynamics within the intelligence structure. Some high-ranking officials were involved in this on behalf of foreign agencies, mainly the Mossad and the CIA. Straightforward, there is no ifs and buts. So, and as a matter of fact, Iran end up arresting about 20 of them, including some high-ranking officials. So, and they have turned now the investigation to the IRGC. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, or— yeah, so that tells me right there Iran needs to work on its intelligence service instructor because it is, it is bad. It's penetrated. So, and this is where this whole idea of, uh, and again, I'm not going to focus on this. I'm going to focus on the what the retaliation of Iran is going to consist of. So Uh, but, but I need you to know that his assassination, meaning Ismail Haniyeh, was not through a missile. It was through— and same with the, uh, this is the, uh, during the, uh, uh, ceremony, the funeral, that is, of, uh, uh, the Hezbollah commander, top commander Fouad Shouker. So, and that was, uh, when, uh Uh, Hassan Nasrallah gave a speech there, and it's very, very important to understand these dynamics, guys, otherwise things will not make sense to you why Iran is going to move into these directions now. Now, thinking about, uh, sort of how Iran is going to go about this one, of course Iran, as I said, is going to retaliate, you know. Now will be Iran by itself? No, because you're going to be looking at other elements. To my knowledge and my understanding— when I say knowledge, I'm referring to my understanding because I spent time in the Middle East dealing with understanding the role of these groups that I'm going to be mentioning. So I am aware of the groups that some of them you don't even hear about. It's just the way it is. So, and this is what it's known as the Axis of Resistance. Yeah, the term that is used in the region, West Asia or Middle East, is called Axis of Resistance. Now this one, it includes Iran's groups that have been financed, supported since the revolution. It goes way back, so the ties are so strong. And this is where now Israel is going to have to be very, very, very, very concerned. I'm going to share with you, uh, let me show you first of all the map. What are we looking at here? Here is Iran, this is Iraq, right here on the top is Syria, and in the green part here, that's, that's the, on the left of it, that's the Gaza Strip. So, so what are you going to be looking at? You're going to be looking at, at groups that are affiliated with Iran. So we'll start with the Gaza Strip. You have two main groups there. One of them is Hamas, of course, and second one is the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Then you move into Iraq. In Iraq, you have about four groups. One of them is called Kata'ib Hezbollah. That's not Hezbollah in Lebanon, that's another one, Kata'ib Hezbollah. Then there is another group which a lot of people do not know, and I happen to be familiar with because when I spent time in Iraq we had to deal with their attacks and so forth back then. It's called Asa'ib al-Haq. The fourth one is called Harakat al-Nujaba, and the fourth one is called the Popular Mobilization Forces. Then you go into another country, Lebanon. The main group is Hezbollah there. Then you go to Syria, of course. What do you have in Syria? You have the whole government because This is how it works in, in Syria, is also managed also by the, the groups in Lebanon. So, but within Syria you have also the Fatemiyoun group, then you have the Zainabiyoun brigades. So the Fatemiyoun and Zainabiyoun, those are two name Arabic. The Fatemiyoun goes back to the Arabic history, the Zainabiyoun. It goes also back to the Arabic history or the Arab history back then. So then you have another country which is Yemen, and you all know which group is in Yemen. And this is why you need to understand, uh, if we are to think about Israel, uh, Iran's retaliation, it's not going to be just launched from Iran, which we will be some. You're also going to be looking at attacks from Yemen, attacks from Lebanon, and attacks from Syria and Iraq. So if you or your air defense system couldn't deal with just a simple drone, what the Houthi group, the Houthis, that is, that launched back then, how do you anticipate to deal with missiles from different locations? The US is saying we're gonna go and support and defend. What can we defend with the Patriot missile system that turns out to be useless? Look what the Russians are doing in Ukraine to the American system, you know. The other thing is that Iran has developed, uh, as by the way, when we took over one of the tanks back then in Lebanon I think a week back. Now, during the Iraq War also, Iran went ahead and reverse engineering what's called the TOW-2A missile. Those are anti-tanks. I have a picture for you here, guys. So Iran went ahead and developed this. So Iran now produces this, and, and I have, uh, the new version of it that is wireless, by the way. This is a wireless, uh, TOW, uh, missile anti-tank. So them. But Iran already has those kind of missiles, so Israel will stand no chance. And if you know anything about our tanks, the Abraham tanks, you saw the images in, in Ukraine, what happened to them when Russia target those. So, and this is why, again, from a geopolitical aspect, you have to think in terms of, is the trip of the intelligence, military intelligence officers of the Russian military apparatus to both Iran and Yemen. Coincidence? Or is it now for sure? Because remember the Russian president, what he stated about 3 weeks ago: maybe you might need a war in the region to set the dust, the, to settle the dust once for all. And I think, even though I'm not a— I don't advocate for wars or not, but sometimes that's what's need to be done. It's the same argument I made sometimes regarding the Taiwan issue. At some point, at some point, China will have to demonstrate its military capabilities. That's how the West will understand. And look, Russia is doing it in Ukraine. That's my point. So when you think in terms of these movements, because here is the thing, if Iran doesn't do or doesn't follow through with what it says, Israel is not going to stop. The whole objective of Israel is to pull us into conducting the war on its behalf. And when I have my guest tomorrow I'm going to be approaching this from a different angle altogether. He's someone who spent almost 28 years in the Pentagon, so as policymaker inside the Pentagon. So it's very, very important to listen to a different perspective. So, and this is why the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, when he stated, and I quote, it is my country's duty to avenge Ahaniyaz after he was killed in the Iranian capital, Tehran, while attending the inauguration, end of quote. So the Iranian Supreme Leader wants to justify, and rightly so, but also you don't look at it just from this angle. You have to look at it also from the failure from within your own intelligence service. You know, this is what happened when the US You know, and I was told at that time when I wrote the article, the government reached out to me and said, Mr. O, we don't want you to disclose this one. I was like, why not? And I already talked to you about this one here, guys, when the Chinese were able to arrest a whole entire sleeping cell of 17 double agents. That tells the story right there. So you either have a good intelligence service or not. So Iran now is being exposed. That means it is prone to penetration. That's not good. This is why they're going to do what they're going to do. And this is why I'm saying what's interesting is that the statements coming out of Tel Aviv regarding that it was because it was the US official who disclosed that it was, it was a, it was, uh, Israel's attack basically. But Israel used the term missile attack when it was no missile, it was a bomb that was planted there. So that's what it was, because that's how, uh, uh, based on what I digged into the last 48 hours to collaborate the information And again, it makes perfect sense to me, again, because, uh, because it, it, it just defies logic. If it was a missile, then the air defense system of Iran is useless. So what happened to the 300 missile system that Iran bought from Russia? It will be for this purpose. So, and this is why Iran went ahead and disclosed the arrest of 20, uh, individuals, including senior intelligence officers, military officers, uh, officials and employees of the military, military-run apparatus in Iran, in Tehran. That is, it's very, very important. Like I said last time, guys, remember this, remember this: when it comes down to West Asia, the whole Middle East, the way it works for the intelligence service, especially the Mossad They will have entities within countries like Iraq, countries like Syria, countries like Iran, uh, you name it, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Algeria, you name it. That's, that's across the Muslim world. Jordan, you name it. And there are entities there ends up supporting or providing information to those intelligence services. And I see the, I see the trend here in Iran as well. So, and this is why it's bad, it's bad for, for, uh, uh, for Iran not to be able to clamp down on, on, on, on, on this, uh, uh, weakness within its intelligence, uh, services. So now you think about already what, what Hezbollah in Lebanon is doing. Well, it is pounding the north part of of, of Israel. This is not in retaliation to this one yet. There was one attack particularly from Hezbollah towards this, but Hezbollah didn't even launch anything yet, you know. Suffice it to say that this region in North, uh, Israel has been now, uh, sort of, uh, uh, vacated, you know, is deserted. They have never seen the exodus of people from the north part of Israel in more than 70 years, as they are witnessing today. Why? Because of Hezbollah attacks in the north. And this is why I need you to understand this concept of having— once again, I'm going to put this map here just to put it up for you— understanding that the attacks will come from 4 locations: Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Gaza. Yeah, there is no way. There is no way. And for us, uh, no way for Israel to manage all this because the air defense system won't be able to sustain all this. Now, for us getting involved, we're going to get involved with Patriot missile systems. Now, what the Russians have— and the Russians have already, by the way, delivered some hard assets, meaning weapons, to the H Group in Yemen. I was made aware of that. Those weapons have already— those are mainly anti-ship, but who's to say it was something else with that weapons? Because this will serve also Russia's strategic vision. You know, it's now or never. That's how they look at it. Now or never. And this is why Iran, it's now puts itself in a position that it has to follow through, otherwise it's going to be very, very, very, very problematic for, for, for Iran, credibility-wise, that is. There is another aspect we have to think about it. And this one has to do with, will Iran have to think about its losses if he moved forward with this particular aspect? Because the stakes are very high. Iran will have to consider this part of the calculation if it is to move forward. Otherwise It's, it's going to be suicide basically, because Israel is counting on the US involvement. And, uh, I'm sure most of us Americans, we already wondering about the involvements of the US in Ukraine, uh, why would they created that to begin with? We shouldn't be even considering that one, let alone getting involved into this. And this is one of the key that we're going to have to think about it. So, so the question that I'm going to ask you guys, because I like to have your answer, because I like to know your input. In your opinion, just, just think outside the box. In your opinion, does Iran, if you end up moving forward with this plan to, to retaliate and attack inside Israel? By the way, once again, this is not attacking some Israeli embassy somewhere. We're talking about inside. Does Iran have so much to lose against the US and Israel? If you— if yes or no, if he moved forward with this attack? And let me see in a chat box what your answer is, because I like to know your input, guys. So let me check your, uh, uh, answer here. It's not an easy— it's not an easy situation. Oh, Lyman, thank you so much for your Super Sticker. Truly appreciate you. Oh, Sonia, Sonia Madel, uh, Madalena, thank you so much for your Super Sticker. Truly appreciate you, and good to have you here in our community. Thank you so much, Sonia. Alam seen, once again. Many, many thanks for your continued support. Alam, one of those that support the channel behind the scenes, so I'm very, very grateful. Alam, thank you so much. All right, let me see your answer, guys, uh, please, yes or no, because that's all I'm interested in, because it's not easy to cover all this for— I just need to know your input. Francis Tango, thank you so much. What will happen if AF falling around. No, no, it won't. I don't see that happen. I don't see that happening. Thank you, Francis. All right, let me see. Okay, let me see here what you guys have your answer. I know we got a lot of, a lot of live people here, that's so hard to go through everything, but I am interested, uh, uh, your, your, your, your insights. I am very interested in knowing because the idea of we think about, about what is Iran just gonna retaliate Remember, they also have to calculate the risk, and that's the smart thing to do. Like I said, you don't react emotionally. Look at what the Russian president is doing. You know how easy it will be for the Russian president to flatten entire Ukraine in no time, in no time. But is it a smart thing to do? The same argument I will make about Iran, because Iran also thinking in terms— and don't think Guys, don't think that Iran didn't consider this. Don't think that Iran is not consider this as a bait, because the moment you get inside an open war, there is no easy to get out. I give you a quick example: the Iran-Iraq War. How long did it last? If you can type in the years in the chat box, guys, I just want to, want to share this with you. I want you to tell me how many years Did the Iraq-Iran war last? Okay, uh, the, the first answer, some of you say yes. Francis Tango, you say no. Sonia, you say no. Uh, uh, Jim Pasarotre, you say yes, too much to lose. That is true. You, Lion Man, you say no. Uh, uh, uh, Rabia Burak, you say not at all. Uh, Born Fame, you say no. Truth Seeker, you say no. Peace Lover, no. Blonde Austin, no. John Smith, yes. Interesting and interesting. And the reason I ask those kind of questions, guys, for us as a community, because we wanted to see the thinking. And you see right here within our community there are those who think this way and there are those who think this way, and that's the right way to approach things. You— we can't all of us be thinking in the same way. No. And in similar situation like this is very, very crucial, very crucial for us to understand. This is how important, uh, uh, for us to consider these aspects of What if, what if? And we can't just assume this is what's going to be, uh, uh, how it's going to move forward. And, and this is, again, uh, like I said earlier, you have to think in terms of the, the strategic calculations. The strategic calculations are very important. Uh, Iran tends to react not emotionally. They are very, you know, I wrote a book about Iran. I had to tackle, believe it or not, I had to tackle part of their history into how they dealt with foreign enemies or outsiders. It's because if there is anything we've learned about history, it tells you about the country's behavior. It's the history that will be your best bet into providing you those kind of insights. And this is no different for Iran. It's going to have to calculate the risks versus the benefits. What is the benefit of attacking Israel? What are the risks of attacking Israel? So, and because we all remember, and of course wasn't disclosed uh, openly. If you go back to April, what happened in April of this year again? Of course, because Iran retaliated by firing a barrage of missiles and drones at Israel. So, and the way it did it, Iran gave a warning to the US, hey, we're gonna move forward with this. This is why I'm seeing it, uh, I'm seeing I'm— what I'm, what I'm seeing is for Iran to come openly through the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei by saying we will strike, that means there was a conversation with the Russians behind the scenes. As to the Chinese, no, Iran will not go that route. Iran will go more with the Russians on this because they know where China stands on certain aspects of this. China does not want to get involved. Militarily. It's not that they can't, they just prefer not to. But when you look at the history of the US and Russia, it's slightly different than the history of the US versus China. So it makes more sense for Iran to go with Russia regarding this aspect. So this is why those higher stakes, uh, are, uh, sort of very, very interesting regarding the axis of resistance and how it's going to coordinate. It is my belief now they are coordinating as we speak. This is not gonna— it's gonna be simultaneous. And this is, to the best of my understanding, how this kind of arrangements from this kind of groups, you know, when I spent my time in the Middle East, we were watching, dealing with all this to understand how the behavior of these groups are. And this is where they're going to be. Yeah, it's like when you look at what Hezbollah stated, what they stated, and I quote here, stated that we will retaliate against Israel for killing Shukr, and that is likely we'll participate in a joint attack with Iran, end of quote. That tells you the story right there. It's all clear. It's just matter of when and how they intend to go about it. The, the how part we already know. You got those 4 or 6 entities in those 4 countries: Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, Iraq. Then you add Iran, of course, the, the headquarters, if I may use the term. So So, and that's why, uh, it's, it's gonna move forward into this direction, and that's not gonna be, uh, uh, very, very pretty for Israel, as I argued in my, uh, as I argued in my Russia book, uh, uh, in my Iran book. I'm sorry, this one right here. Where is it? Yeah, right there. Back then when I wrote this one, and the argument was that I made back then, uh, Iran understands— remember, that was a few years ago. Things have changed for Iran. This is one thing about geopolitics, it never stays the same. Ever, ever. What happened last year will be different than what is today and will be very different than what it will be next year. So, so the idea that the critics, as I argued back then, need to put to rest this kind of statements, uh, that, uh, and this was within the context of the Iran nuclear program. And there are those critics back then who were saying, oh my gosh, Iran is going to dominate the world. And I was like, this is nonsense. So that's why I argued back then. I said, he needs to put to rest this nonsense statements as to Iran nuclear program is going to take over the world, you know, uh, or it's going to wipe out Israel. No, ain't gonna happen. Or take over the whole Middle East for that matter. No, no, no, no, no, no. Of course the dynamics has changed now. The geopolitical landscape has shifted. Towards a more multipolar order than it used to be, where the US has now no say into it. I mean, we look at it with the example of the Houthi group in Yemen. They couldn't defeat them. Britain is useless. So, and now they're gonna go defend Israel. Well, how many friends can you— did you know that if the US— and which, by the way, when I say the US, I I am referring to the UK also. UK will be dragged in, into this whether they like it or not. They are servants, they have no choice in the matter. So just think about it, if the US and UK now focus on a different front, what do you think is going to happen in the Red Sea? What do you think the, the Houthi is going to do with now the new weapons they just received from the Russians? So And the man of them just shutting down the Red Sea altogether, in addition to the Strait of Hormuz, that we all know. So, but this is why I argued back then, and I said, while I understand Iran's sort of nuclear ambitions and growing geopolitical aspiration, reality suggests that there is a limit to Iran's aspirations. And one of them now is taking over the Middle East. It's nonsense. It's nonsense. No, because the problem was, and still today to a degree, Iran's— one of the key Iran's problem is internal, and it has to do with its economy that needs rebuilding. Remember the sanctions. So also you have to deal with the infrastructure that is need— in much need of an update. And of course, in a society that remain divided whether to continue to live within a closed system or be opened up to the rest of the world. Those are issues that Iran can overlook and they have to think about. There is no way, there is no way. So that's why I think it behooves us to be realistic as to just because we heard the statement that says we will retaliate, this is what the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, we shouldn't take it right away, that means tomorrow the missiles will be launched at Tel Aviv and all that. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, it doesn't work that way. So, and all this will make sense if I am to go back then as to why the two countries, Saudi Arabia and Israel, back then were opposing this agreement regarding the Iran nuclear program. They were the two main one. Well, the case of Saudi Arabia has changed, of of course. But they were opposing it for two main reasons. One is that Israel worried that, you know, by the time you go this and lift the sanctions on Iran, is going to pave the way for the latter to increase its military, meaning Iran's military and economic support for groups such as Hezbollah and the Houthis. That's what I wrote back then. It is happening today. And two, Saudi Arabia at the time fears the expansion of an Iranian sphere of influence that may decrease Saudi Arabia's religious dominance in the Muslim world. And yet I argue this is nonsense, even though I wrote it. And I followed up with, I don't subscribe to this notion that Iran post-nuclear agreements advances it— either its ideology or its religious, uh, uh, dominance. Why? It's because Iran has no desire to dominate the Muslim world. Doesn't make any sense. Even before, before this nuclear stuff, whatever, remember the war in Iraq between— remember, I'm sorry, the invasion of Iraq which we conducted 2003. American foreign policy double standard on that aspect. The civil war that was in, in, in Syria the upheavals that took place in Yemen and the military coup that took place at that time in Egypt. So, and of course, the failed state of Libya, which we have contributed to, you know. And all this, in my opinion, demonstrates that, you know, these religious differences and so forth divide the Middle East into the religious term. This is why Iran is not interested in dominating Despite what you hear, what you need to know, as I argue back then and it applies today, is that Iran is communicating to the West that it has the capability and know-how to produce advanced systems through various means. This is your example right here, guys. And that is why Israel will hesitate, is hesitating to— it was just talks. Even for us, the US, we were just, uh, I was aware of a plan back then. That was back then, uh, uh, as I said, usually when we think about plan of attack, whatever, uh, in the case of Iran, uh, we got what we call the menu in the Pentagon. That's how we— it, it's done. So, and the first line of, uh, on that menu was a carpet bombing. You flatten to— we couldn't do it now. That was back then when Iran didn't have those advanced missile systems, when Iran didn't have the Russian S-300 missile systems, which are very deadly accurate. And now they even have the 400 missile systems. So that plan is scrapped. It's gone. This is my point. So we're gonna have to think logically and pragmatically. You can give in to emotions, and I know everybody's angry and all that stuff. Yeah, because the whole assassination of, for example, the guy, uh, Ismail Haniya, on Iranian soil was useless unless he was serving for— as, as a, as a bait. It's the only, only reason to that. No other justification for it because it just didn't make any sense. Didn't make any sense. Strategically speaking, Israel will not be able to fight on its own because Israel created so many enemies now, so many. And we too, we too have created many enemies now around the world by supporting an agenda that goes against our— if we are to say we stand for humanity, we stand for what's right, We stand for the ideals of, of, of, of freedom, so to speak. We stand for the rights of everybody to exist. You know, how come we showing this double standard? You can't live like this forever. You can't. And we are reaching that point. We have reached that point. It's— we going down. We've been going down for the last decade plus. Down, down, down, down. And for me, it's all started back in 2003 when we embarked on this invasion of Iraq. What for? And I knew right there, this is ill-conceived foreign policy, has no justification, let alone the whole invasion itself was based on a lie. Can't— you can't behave like that on a world stage and assume the world's not gonna take notice. And now we are faced with the reality— our economy is going down, you know, the whole country. Yeah, this country here. And I'm gonna do a video for you guys about the truth about the current economic state of the United States. That's just a reality we need to understand. So, so this is what I wanted to, uh, share with you. And by the way, There is one more point I need to address with you quickly here before I turn it over for your, uh, uh, uh, or answer your questions. What about some Arab worlds, some countries in the Muslim world, the likes of Jordan, the likes of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates? What do you think they're going to do? Uh-oh, why my screen is flickering here? I guess they don't want me talk about this stuff. What do you think they're gonna do? Some of them have already thinking in terms of supporting Israel. Yeah, so when you think about Jordan, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, okay, it's, it's hypocrisy at the highest order. Or of the highest order. Those are hypocrites. Those are not Muslims. They call themselves Muslim. No, they're hypocrites, you know. Because when you look at the map, guys, just look at this one here. Just look at the map. Look at where those countries are, okay? And if Yemen gets involved, anything that has to be fired as far as missile will have to go through some airspace of sort. Unless it goes through the Red Sea here. But even if it gets to the Red Sea, you get closer to Egypt. So even for Iraq, what Iraq's going to do? Will it let Iran's missiles cross over its airspace? Jordan— Jordan is useless, even though Jordan and Saudi Arabia allowed the US and the UK to fly over their airspace or launch missiles against the, the age group. So it, it just shows you right there, they're saying one thing and doing another. So that's just something, food for thoughts. I'm not going to delve deeper into this, uh, just food for thoughts, because you have to think about this now. Should it be an open war, how is it going to change the dynamics? Because those countries are more concerned about their power, staying in power, than worrying about, uh, uh, their population or the economy or what have you. Yeah, I always say get rid of them. So that, that's just my opinion. So, all right guys, let me check out some answers from you here and some questions. I'm sorry. And, uh, I want to just update you on the Asia trip. Uh, by the way, uh, my thanks go to those who are continuing to support the, the channel. Uh, the, the Asia trip, uh, I forgot to— let me, let me show, let me see. And by the way, I, uh, one of you asked me about if I have a Bitcoin account. Yes, I do, because I do invest in this. And this is why, if you ever want to donate in through Bitcoin This doesn't go through PayPal, doesn't go through any— it goes directly, uh, and, and I think their fees are $0.43. Yeah, very, very, very cheap. So I just got my first, uh, support through Bitcoin a few days ago. So, so let me just, uh, share with you, uh, Hang and G, I want to say thank you for buying me tea this morning. Hang been buying me tea now every day, every day, and I'm very, very grateful. And the same applies to Osiris, the same apply to TC Quan, the same apply to, uh, uh, Zhu Liang, uh, many of you guys. I'm very, very grateful. So, so as of today, let me share the screen because I need you to see this one here. Because that's how it works. This is where we are as of today, but you have to add $1,500 to this amount because the $1,500 I got it through PayPal and the other platform, and that's from the private donors, the one person who donated $1,000, and the two others who donated $500 each. So, so I just want— I just wanted to share it with you. So, uh, that's where we are at as of now. So, so I greatly appreciate your support, guys. Uh, for those who wants to do PayPal, this is the PayPal link to it if you're ever interested. And for the Buy Me a Coffee This is for the channel. The other one is for Asia trip. This is for the channel. All right, let me take a look at a question or two from you guys. And by the way, remember to join me tomorrow at 12:15. Uh, all right, I'll take first question from Athene Wu. How many missiles does Iran have? Does Iran have enough of them? I've heard Iran doesn't have very good missiles defense system. On air defense if Israel, the US hits back, uh, can Iran survive? Uh, no, that is not— I, I don't know where you get this, Athene Wu. Uh, yes, Iran didn't have, didn't have good missiles, but they have upgraded the stuff, man. Uh, their missile systems now are very, very good, including their defense system. And remember, that is the reason why they went ahead and purchased the S-300 missile systems And also get into talks with Iran— with the Russia, I'm sorry— regarding the 400 missile systems and also regarding the fighter jets, the Russian fighter jets. So, so, uh, uh, and Iran's missiles, to my knowledge, and I looked into all this, are within reach of Tel Aviv, which means Iran can fire a missile from Iran and it will hit, uh, uh, Tel Aviv. So, so, uh, uh, this one here, I will have to say their missile defense, yes, of course, is not the likes of the Russians, uh, or, or, or maybe even the US, but they do have some good ones. Uh, I even, uh, was— couldn't confirm that they tested a hypersonic, but I can't confirm it. That's why I don't talk about it. As to surviving, yes, it will survive. Iran will survive. Look what we did during the Iran-Iraq War. Despite all the weapons we provided Iraq, they couldn't defeat them. That's, uh, that's the way I see it. All right, let me see a next question from you guys. Oh, I just saw your answer to the question regarding how long was the, the war between Iran and Iraq. Some of you put 10, some of you put 8. Uh, the right answer is 8. That you're— of course there were some, uh, some stuff after that, but it was us that we went behind the scenes and cut a deal and, uh, uh, end up selling certain weapons to Lebanon, by the way. So, so, uh, this type of missile, this type of missiles, guys, the old version of it, we sold it to Lebanon. Well, when you think Lebanon, who do you think? You think of Hezbollah right away. So wow, wow, wow, my connection keeps coming in and out. All right, let me see. Oh, oh, that's an interesting question. Real Report: What is the Iraqi Kurds' role? Will they be attacked? No, they shouldn't. Why will they be? No, no, no, no. Uh, Iraq and the independent Kurds, the Kurdistan, it's no, it shouldn't be. Uh, where the Kurdistan issue is going to be is going to be with the Syrians. Uh, uh, the Turks, I'm sorry, uh, with the, with the, with the Turks, not, uh No, no, Israel will not do. Plus, we do have, we do have a base inside Kurdistan, and we do have good relationship. Of course, we screwed them up, uh, when we said just go and fight, uh, Saddam back then, and, and we didn't do anything because we were never intended to do anything about it. So, uh, Cam 35, what did Putin— sometimes it takes a war. Yeah. That's what he was referring to, the Middle East, for this to stop once for all. It's because, uh, uh, he's not shying away from supporting Iran. And, and I bet if Iran is going to move forward with this, Russia will be supporting behind the scenes, the same way we are doing in Ukraine. So what makes Russia doing it wrong and we are doing it right? So I, I don't see any I, you know, I don't see any, uh, uh, any difference into this. So they're gonna be keep doing it. All right, one— let's see, one more question here, guys, and, uh, and I'm gonna sign off here because I need to go do a few things. Uh, Uh, time now, 9. Of course it's not a news channel. I don't do news, guys. I don't do news. I do analysis. I know some use the term a great news channel. No, I'm not. I am not. If I want to do news, I would like to have some network where I can do my own program there. But not here. I do analysis. And one of you said, by the way, he said he wish this channel will have a million subscribers. Uh, I really care less for that stuff. I care for the quality of the information, you know. I, I don't follow the crowd into— there are channels out there with the 200,000, 300,000 subscribers, whatever. It doesn't make sense to me at all, and, and I don't listen to Uh, because I, you know, it's, it's about the quality. I mean, look at just, guys, the panel that I had yesterday, you know. Tell me if you're gonna find this elsewhere. Let's be honest about it. And I know they can go elsewhere, whatever, but it's, it's how you, uh, as a matter of fact, uh, it's how you conduct this kind of, uh, panel discussion and the nature of the information. That is what I am after. And my objective with this is to raise awareness, to make you and other people around the world aware of how to decipher facts from fiction. That is my objective. So do I— will I have a million subscribers or not is irrelevant to me. I— but thank you all for that anyway. So I'm looking at another question. I think we have a lot of viewers here, so Uh, oh, I want to say thank you to, uh, Universe Son, thank you very much for your Super Sticker, truly appreciate you. Okay, okay, one question, question, uh, Rabia Burak: why Iran always announce their moves prior to any attack? That also falls under psyops, it's part of, uh Iran doesn't do it because they are stupid. Part of psyops. Because here's the thing, if you only know the high alert that exists right now in Israel, we're not going to hear about it. We're not going to know. You know, I kind of talk, talk to people who are, uh, around that part of the world, or even in PSYOPs is very, very important. So yeah, of course you are not going to announce, it doesn't make any sense. But, but just, just for you to understand, it's, it's a part of the PSYOPs. That's the only objective, uh, for that one. Uh, okay, I'm seeing, uh, either some All right, let me see one more, one more question, guys, if I see it. And who's this lucky person? All right, Cheesecake, a question: are the protests in Bangladesh sponsored or related to the three-letter agency? No, no, no, no, no. It is, is the madness that exists inside that corrupted system. Hasina, by the way, has been in power— she served 5 terms. No, you shouldn't be serving 5 terms, you know. And, and, and again, it's their country if they want her, but knowing what I know as far as the massive corruption that her family was involved in at the expense of the Bangladeshi citizen. It's not right. It is not right. This is why I always believe what the punishment for corruption ought to be— publicly. That's, that's to me the only way. This, this, uh, uh, 10 years in prison, 12 years— no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. All that stuff shouldn't exist. You take them to the, to the square and, and take care of it right there. Uh, to my knowledge, it's not the case because, uh, this has to do with the quota that, uh, the Bangladeshi government imposed, and, and it's internal. Plus, where the conditions in, in Bangladesh we're going, uh, it's only— people can only take so much, and at some point they're gonna explode. And this is why we're seeing, uh, in some countries in Europe This is what's seen, like, for example, in England, even though it was based on a lie where the, the, the, the, the far right, uh, push the narrative as to it was the Muslim that conducted it, which wasn't the case, it was a lie. But again, this is not about that, it's about the economic conditions that are getting so bad in the UK, because UK, in my opinion, is in collapse. It's, it's, it's a done-for society. That's what it is. So, all right guys, I'm gonna sign off here because I'm starting to see this flickering too much. Uh, I, I don't want to lose you before I'll, I'll say bye. Uh, remember to join me tomorrow, guys. And once again, thank you all for being here. I look forward to seeing you tomorrow at 12:15. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, guys. Bye.