Hypersonic at Sea, Armed from the Air: Iran's Military Leap Nobody Is Talking About

Hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. 4 Russian cargo planes in 10 days, one destination. This is the heart of Iran's most secretive military complex, while at the same time diplomats are setting— are set for a next meeting tomorrow in Geneva to continue the talks about the nuclear deal. This comes against the background of the moment Iran launched the Sayyad-3G from the deck of the stealth warship in the Strait of Hormuz. The Persian Gulf military equation changed permanently. And this is for the first time a small, fast, radar-evading Iranian corvette can now threaten the U.S. surveillance aircraft. Allied warships and the intelligence umbrella the United States depends on. So from a platform that can disappear in the Gulf of cluttered island-dotted waters, and the day after that launch, which was only a few days ago, the same ship sailed straight into joint exercises with the Russian Navy. Coincidence? Uh, I don't think so. This is a word both Moscow and Tehran do not use often. And this is what I'm gonna be addressing you in this analysis here about this new missile, Sayyad-3G, which means Hunter 3G. That's the name of the missile. I have a picture of it right here. That's written in Arabic there, Sayyad, meaning hunters. Now, Sayyad-3G or Hunter-3G, it's an air defense missile which launched from— actually, they used it from a stealth, a Sayyad Shirazi ship. And I have a picture here. This looks small, right? But it's very, very hard to track or locate. And this happened a few days ago. When Iran was conducting the operation called Control of the Strait of Hormuz or Smart Control of the Strait of Hormuz. And during this naval drill, Iran's IRGC naval released this footage of it. So I'm gonna share a clip with you and do a translation for you briefly on this because it's long, but we're not gonna do the entire video, the entire clip. It's just I want you to be aware of it here. So let's take a listen here. Let me first extend this one so you can, uh, and I'll do the translation for you here. So let's start from the beginning. In the middle of the, this increased tensions, uh, from Trump with the presence of 35,000 troops, 2 aircraft carriers, and 17 naval assets or naval ships, and the air defense and fighter jets. In the middle of all this, IRGC announced the launch of a new missile. It's called Sayyad-3G or Hunter-3G. That's the translation. And it's entering into service for the first time when it was launched, when they were conducting the operation a smart control of the Strait of Hormuz, which is what the Iranian naval is testing this missile, which was conducted in the Strait of Hormuz. The media, the Iranian media shared or launched or publicized some sort of clips of the launch of this video. The moment where they launched this sample of this missile. It was launched from the Shirazi boat. This is the official pictures or images of the— missile Sayyad-3G or Hunter-3G is launched vertically. As you saw in the video clip, about 30 meters up in the air. I think he meant to say 30 kilometers.— which this one will allow for some sort of a speed by which it does not need to be circling around the target or to intercept the fast missiles. Yeah, it's 30 kilometers. Its speed is very impressive. 5.5 Mach, Mach 5, that is 6,700 kilometers per hour. And the reason for, or the cause for it being this fast, because any missile that will intercept this missile We have to be faster than that. In order to target it. As far as its range, it reaches about 150 kilometers. So I'm gonna stop right here, guys, so I can move on with the analysis here. It's interesting. Now, I did find in other sources that this missile is a Mach 7. The announcer there mentioned it was 5.5 Mach, so give or take, but that's beside the point. So Mach 7, an NK-88 can engage of a range of about 150 kilometers. Here is the important that I need you to understand about this particular missile. I'm gonna put it back up here for you. The importance about it is that it is designed to counter fighter jets UAVs, cruise missiles, and maritime patrol aircraft. That is what's very impressive about it. And it's deployed from vertical launch silos, as you saw in the clip. And that was from the Shahid Sayyad Shirazi. That's the— right here is the ship where it was launched from. And I did show you this one last time. This is during the maneuvers they were doing. Now, the ship, by the way, Shirazi, just FYI, while I have the info and I'm aware of, I read about it. This ship was commissioned in 2024 and is displaying roughly 600 tons. Here is what's interesting about it. This vessel —vessel, rather—is built largely from aluminum alloy and is shaped to reduce—the way it is shaped, the way you're looking at it on the screen there, the reason for that shape is because it reduces the radar cross-section, giving it markedly stealthier profile than earlier Iranian surface missile—surface combatant ships. Now, what is the strategic significance of this? Sayyad-3 or, or Hunter-3G, sort of that has been confirmed now. The importance of it is that now the US is gonna— is forcing the US to go back to the drawing board. And what's interesting also, right after it was launched, following the launch, automatically the ship joined the maneuvers that were controlling— that were in exercises with the Russians. Two things simultaneously. And because now what you're gonna have is that this, this engagement is partially realistic in operational conditions. And that is why this is gonna be positioning now this main shipping channel could in principle contest the airspace used by the US and allied helicopters. Can be also used by UAVs and the maritime patrolling and so forth. Now, the other question that many are asking is, is it hypersonic? So, Sayyad-3G launch is real. And strategically significant. Can't ignore this. Why? Because it marks Iran's first operational naval vertical launch with a long range for air defense capability. And that's turning its small stealth sort of corvettes— this is what Iran is doing— into a genuinely multi-role warships. It's not about the size. No, look at it again. And when you compare this one to, uh, where is US? I don't have the US aircraft. Uh, yeah, I don't have it here. So this is where the advantage is from this aspect. So the hypersonic framing, if it applied, refers to the missile speed during intercept, not its classification as a hypersonic weapon system. The reason for that is because it represents some sort of an incremental leap in Iran's now naval power, particularly given the chokepoint geography of the Strait of Hormuz. This is why it's very important to understand the significance of this particular missile. And that is why I believe the United States has to go back now to the drawing board and think about it. So how likely this launch may change now the calculations for both Iran and the United States? So we're gonna look at it from Iran side and we're gonna look at it from the US side. And this way we'll get both sides of the arguments. For Iran, the first thing that comes to mind, two things, denial, not projection. Iran is not about projecting power and all that stuff. No, it's not after that because Iran's entire naval doctrine, I wrote a book about Iran and I had to address these aspects in the book. For those who have already a copy, I'm sure you read, if you read it in its entirety, you'll come across that section that I address this. So Iran is the naval doctrine for the entire Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz has always been built around anti-access area denial, is known in the military jargon as A2/AD. And this is why, why is this? Because it's making it costly for any adversary to operate freely in the region rather than trying to defeat them in an open battle. This is the objective of— this is the objective of the timing of why it was released now. So Sayyad-3G, the missile— and let me put picture here just to put things in perspective, uh, Sayyad, uh, G3 fits perfectly into this doctrine. There is a reason for that. So by adding this credible long-range air defense layer to its small, fast, stealthy corvettes, Iran can now do 2 or 3 main things that I was thinking about, sort of makes more sense. One is to threaten the ISR umbrella of the US. ISR is the intelligence surveillance Recon. This is crucial for the US. Any military conflict we've been engaged in, ISR had to play a role into that because we depend on it. There also impact this maritime patrol aircraft, like for example, to those who are familiar with the incident that happened in the South China Sea way back a few years ago between P-8 Poseidon surveillance at that time and the Chinese fighter jets win because we encroached into the Chinese territory. That was P-8. There is also a challenge with this, uh, Sayyad-3G to MQ-9 and Triton. It is the MQ-9 that will be a challenge for it because the speed of this particular, uh, missile, meaning the Sayyad-3G, And of course, we have the other one is the Triton. Triton is this one right here. Those are the two main platforms the US really depends on regarding the ISR, the intelligence surveillance reconnaissance, or recon, that is. It will also be able, this missile, to target naval helicopters that guide targeting for carrier strike groups. This is what's profound about this. So, so without that overhead picture, without that overhead picture, US surface operations become significantly more dangerous. That's one. Second, it forces the adversaries to fly higher or even farther. Remember, range 150 kilometers, at least for this one. Look at the map of the Persian Gulf, how far the US will have to go, okay? And if you look at the US presence, especially right here, the bases, all of them within range of that missile. That's what makes it very, very crucial in this aspect. So for this one, when forces the adversaries to fly higher or farther, it's compressing the effectiveness. That's what Iran is doing, compressing that effectiveness near the Strait of Hormuz. So, and it's doing this without firing a single shot. And the third element is creating ambiguity during crisis. If the United States doesn't know exactly where the Sayyad Shirazi-class ships like this one here— if we don't know where it is, because what's going to happen? The Pentagon must assume the airspace over the straits is contested. And that means the U.S. will have to plan accordingly. And that is one of the strategic aspects. Politically, Iran gets to signal a capability at a minimal cost because the exercise footage I shared with you on that clip, the broadcast, which was broadcast domestically and regionally for that matters, reinforces now the deterrence messaging without crossing the red line. Because here is the next question we are to think within this context. Is why Donald Trump is hesitating now from attacking Iran? It's worth asking because he is. From the U.S. side, the calculations now have shifted. There is no other way of saying it. I don't know if you heard the State of the Union speech yesterday, which all was about Iran, by the way. It's now we are— to tell you how President of the U.S. It has to follow orders. American president is in no power. He has to follow orders. Now he's going to be forced, and he's hesitating. That's why he's not attacking Iran. He knows the cost is going to be astronomical. So from the U.S. perspective, remember, the United States has fought certain conflicts through a sort of dense and layered air defense environments. That was before. Sayyad-3G is now— is not remotely sort of in the same class as the Russian S-400 missile systems. I think I have a picture for the Russians. Yes, right here. That was before, because before the US Navy has to worry about the S-400 the S-400 missile systems of Russia or the HHQ-9. Those are the— I have a picture of them right here. Those are the other type of missiles. This is what we were worrying about before. Now Iran added the complexity with Sayyad-3G or Hunter-3G air defense missiles. So the system now, it is, it is changing completely. It is changing. Of course, the US will argue what the claimed versus demonstrated performance— there is a wide gap. Mach 7, Mach 7 at 150 kilometers engagements range sort of have not been independently verified. When I say this, I'm referring to realistic conditions. We don't know. But at the same time, why will Iran disclose everything? The element of surprise. So, but there is one advantage the US might have, and I say might because when I talk later on about the shipments from Russia into Iran, one of the shipments included certain type of electronic magnetic type of jamming systems. So why am I saying the US might have a little bit of an advantage for now? It has to do with the electronic warfare and the decoys, because this remains US advantages for now. What you need to think about is that the Sayyad-3G, the Hunter-3G missile, that one Its radar seeker and data links are presumably susceptible to jamming. This is where US carrier group carries sophisticated EW, uh, sort of systems. Those are suitably, uh, perfect for designed to defeat systems like this one here. But let's not rush to conclusions yet. Still, This is real complications for the US planners. And the US will have now genuinely difficult task to counter or killing at least one of the Sayyad Shirazi fleet because they won't be able to know where it is. This is one of the challenge. So to the US, Whatever they fly, they have no idea that Shirazi could be there and he will launch the Sayyad-3 missile. That's why the American now planners are literally going back to the drawing board. And that makes it now geographically compressed within the Strait of Hormuz if Iran end up shutting it down completely. And that in itself raises the cost of maritime patrol posture. Because here is the thing, if P-8 and surveillance drones, like I mentioned earlier, the, you have the MQ-9 and you have the Triton. If those now have to plan around a credible 150 kilometers for the missile, for the Sayyad-3G. So which means what? It means that the mission, the mission profile has to change. The mission range will have to change. And if it's that change, the standoff distances will have to increase. You can no longer be closer to the Strait of Hormuz. It's exactly, exactly what happened last year in the Red Sea when Eisenhower— it was Eisenhower, right? Harry Truman, I'm sorry. Harry Truman aircraft, a US aircraft carrier, was in the Red Sea, only it had to move up north farther from the coast near Babil Mandeb or even the southern part of it near Yemen because of the range. I see the same scenario here. The big picture is this, because what really matters is that this missile, Sayyad-3G, is best understood not as a single weapon, but rather as a data point in a larger trend. Because Iran, remember, Iran has spent decades, yeah, decades systematically sort of decreasing the gap when it comes down to A2/AD network, area denial. You're looking now at the long-range drones that they have built. You're looking at a fast attack craft, anti-ship ballistic missiles, and now the ship-borne long-range SAM, surface-to-air missile. So no system, in my opinion, no single system is game changer. It's the aggregation of this capability, the combination of this capability. And when you add geography that is already heavily favoring a defender in the Strait of Hormuz, it means what? It means that the cumulative shift in the calculator is more significant than any individual system will suggest. So the US can bring in all the aircraft carriers, whatever, because for Iran, it reinforces the doctrine that has proven strategically Rational. It's very rational the way they're approaching it. You don't need to match the United States Navy to deter it. No, because it will be ridiculous to do so. The US spent so many years building up all this. All you need to do, you just need to raise the cost of intervention high enough that the political will to act erodes or changes. And it looks like to me, Sayyad-3G, the missile that is, is another brick in that wall. And that is exactly my own— this is my own conclusion. That is exactly why Donald Trump is hesitating because of the cost. He will be pushed by certain entities to go for it. But he is thinking, he's transactional. He thinks in terms of cost benefits. That's why I believe the hesitation is from. So for the U.S. is a reminder what Iran just did with this missile, the launch of it, like you saw in the clip earlier. To Iran, to, I'm sorry, to the United States, this is a reminder. That the era, really the era of the so-called, what's the word I'm looking for, relatively uncontested maritime dominance in the Gulf, which was already fading anyway, no, now it continues to narrow. That's almost like the same thing I can say about the US global leadership. It's going down. I've been arguing this for over a decade. Not a crisis, but a slow, for now, steady erosion of the freedom of action American planners once took for granted. And I'm going to share a picture with you from archive. I pulled one. This is the USS Stark when it was attacked by a, by a Scud missile, I believe, from Iran— from, I'm sorry, from Iraq, way back, way back. That was back then, 1980— don't quote me on this because I couldn't remember— '82 or '84, one of those. Just to highlight to you how this— I'm sorry, this was 1987. That was struck by Iraqi anti-ship missile. That was Iraq back then. Now think about Iran today, and Iran is no Iraq, FYI, if the U.S. thinks that. The other question we need to ask now is, will Iran have the capability to mass-produce this missile? It's common sense question. You have to ask this. Iran has been working since almost— you go way back to 1987, '86. I read an article in a foreign language really detailing about how Iran was working even back then. It accelerated, of course, after the Shah was removed or overthrown. And this is where we are today. Iran's been building this kind of capabilities. That's why they never disclose the exact figure. We will never know. I know last time I did a video for you here, and I explained that Iran in this time, if Israel attack, Iran will have the capability to launch simultaneously 2,000 missiles. So if they are able to launch 2,000 missiles, That gives you an idea how much they have in reserves because you're not going to over-expend all your missiles. This is exactly the problem Israel and the United States run into by using the Iron Dome and Arrow 3, Arrow 2, and all that, and they run out of stock. So the US had to pull its own. That's why we intervened. But now we are running into a problem because hypothetically, if something happens in South China Sea, let's say, We don't have enough to counter them. So the question is, can Iran mass produce Sayyad-3G? The possibility is there, or at least partially. So Iran has demonstrated, at least throughout the years that I've been following, something generally impressive over the past decades or so. And what is that? Is the ability to indigenize complex weapon systems and production under severe sanction pressures. Remember, we had sanctions on Iran since 1979. We still have sanctions and look where they are. So in my opinion, this is not a country that collapsed under economic isolation. Are they having economic pressure there? Yes, they do. Are there economic problems inside Iran? Yes, there are. But did Iran collapse? No, it didn't. What Iran did is it adapted, it adapted to the new realities. And this is why there are several factors that can play to Iran's favor in this idea. The industrial base already exists when it comes down to missiles. Remember this missile, and let me put the picture back for you. Sayyad-3G. Sayyad, or, or Hunter. It came from the Sayyad family missiles. You have Sayyad-1, 2, 3, and 4. But now they're adding this 3G. This is specific. And that in itself, in my opinion, as one looking from outside in, It represents some sort of an evolutionary program, not a one, one-off achievement. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, this is not a one-time. Remember, 4 types of missiles they have, each one for its own range, for its own sort of objective. Here is the range. Those are not the same ones, but it's just to give you an idea. Where's the other? I had the— here's another one here, just to give you an idea about this one here, so you know. Now when you think about, uh, let me remove this picture here. When you think about this industrial base, because Iran has been able to build for the last— go back the last 15 years. I disclosed this in the book that the sanctions didn't work. Iran is still standing. So when you think the manufacturing infrastructure, the tooling that you need for this stuff, the institutional knowledge, they are already in place. So mass producing this type of missile It's gonna make a big, big, big change, fundamental change. And this in itself, why mass-producing will be in favor of Iran, is because when you have those, those, those platforms, meaning the manufacturing infrastructure base, the tooling, the institutional knowledge, what you can do, this is completely different from starting from scratch. Iran doesn't need to start from scratch. And who do they have to thank for this is the sanctions, because what the sanctions have done is they forced Iran to go inward for self-sufficiency. This is the hallmark of where things are. Paradoxically, the sanctions over decades have pushed Iran now to develop domestic supply chain for components it will otherwise have to import. Look at no further than the drone program, and I have images here of drones. And by the way, the thousands of drones that were sent to Russia— why do you think Russia has made some sort of advances also? It's because of those drones that Iran has shared. Which did achieve genuine mass production of them. And that's where they supply Russia with thousands of Shahed or Shahed-136. That's the one you saw right here. Let me show you Shahed-136. This is very, very advanced. And that proved— what does it prove? It proved that Iran can manufacture complex guided munitions at a scale when motivated. But there are those who are against this idea of, oh, they won't be able to produce. And we're going to address that side of the argument as well. And their first thing that we need to address with this is the critical components bottleneck. In other words, they don't have access— they, Iran, doesn't have access to key components. The hardest parts for, for example, a long-range, high-speed SAM are not the airframe or the motor. That is not where the challenge is. You know where the challenge is? Is the seeker radar, the fire control radar, and of course the guidance electronics. Those are where the components But on the other hand, Iran has a way of having access to that. And I'm gonna mention it as I get to it as I move forward. There is another aspect, it has to do with the advanced infrared that exists within or the active radars that exist in this. And I'm not gonna get technical here. I'm gonna have to move on with this. Suffice it to say that Iran's access to this cutting-edge chips and sensors is heavily restricted, which we know, but they do have Russia, they do have China, they do have North Korea. So the Western think tank major military analyst will say, oh, there is some sort of credible suspicion about this. That the entire dependency of Iran's systems depend on Russia and China. What is confirmed to a degree is that some Iranian missiles, the electronics of them have incorporated components sourced through back channels from those two countries, Russia and China. Back channels. And in this scenario, that's why I push back against those who argue that Iran will not be able to produce. If Iran has access to this, in this scenario, mass production is partly contingent on the stability of the supply relationships and access to this component. So the realistic assessment is this: Iran can probably produce the Sayyad-3G in a meaningful way. Will it be an overwhelming number? Not necessarily, but enough to make you, the adversary, think twice about engaging Iran. And that is exactly enough to equip the fleet of the Soleimani class corvettes. That's the one Iran has. Once again, Iran is not about posturing, is about the cost. How much is going to cost the adversary to get in a fight with Iran? That is exactly where this is. And if you think about this one here, you're going to have to think about it in terms of It's just the way it's going to move. That's where I see the, uh, the difference when it comes down to addressing this particular aspect here. Now let's address one of the other components that, or, or elements that is important to address. It has to do with the This one has to do with, in light of this development, will Russia and China step up their military support for Iran in light of this information? Because it's worth asking. We're going to have to think in terms of why is this important? Because this question, in my opinion, this question sort of sits at the intersection of the three countries: Iran, Russia, and China. And this within the world is the most consequential strategic partnership. Yeah, there is NATO, there is all— yeah, NATO is a relic of the past. So let's look at Russia and let's look at China. From Russia's perspective, Russia has moved now from transactional relationship to something approaching genuine wartime partnership. And this is accelerated by the dramatic support of Iran of Russia with the drones in the Ukraine war. As I said earlier, Iran supplied Russia with thousands of Shahed drones and ballistic missiles. Yeah, that's what Iran did. And in return, Russia provided Iran with the Su-35 fighter jets, the Mi-28 attack helicopters, and reportedly advanced air defense system technology, not missiles, technology. As of this month, February 2026, when the joint naval exercises between Iran and Russia— this particular ship was involved in those. That is where the testing of Sayyad came about. Of course, Iran is not going to disclose this openly at that time. It's no coincidence. It was a deliberate signal sent from both Iran and Russia to the United States. On China, China has much deeper relations, but it is more careful managing this relationship. We all remember China signed with Iran the 25-year comprehensive strategic partnership, which was signed in, if I recall, 2021. And that in itself committed China to $400 billion investments in exchange for discounted Iranian oil. Chinese companies have been the primary buyer. It's what's keeping Iran's oil economy functional under US sanctions. The military relationship exists. But Beijing has historically some sort of keep it below the threshold for strategic reasons, and rightly so, because it does not want to trigger— meaning China in this case— does not want to trigger any Western retaliation against Chinese firms or banks. It's not that China is afraid. No, China is not afraid. China is being pragmatic and smart. But in light of this Sayyad-3G, I am asking, will the support— will Iran, will Russia and China step up their support? My answer— what do you guys think? I need to have your answer, your feedback on this. In light of this launch of the Sayyad-3G, 3G, in your opinion, yes or no, do you believe Russia and China will step up their support for Iran? Russia most likely has the strongest incentive to deepen these military ties with Iran right now for reasons that go beyond just the missile in itself, specifically the Sayyad-3G. The reciprocity between Iran and Russia is very, very powerful, the dynamics of it, 'cause you have to think of it in these terms. Iran's drones and missile supplies were operationally decisive for Russia against Ukraine. This is what kept Russia's strike campaign going when sort of domestic production couldn't keep up pace. Russia owes Iran in this case. And both sides, Iran and Russia, knows it. And this is where the military technology transfer comes in. Because why? The military technology is the natural currency of repayment that Russia can do for Iran. The question here is the way you have to think about it. If Russia thinks that Iran can demonstrate that it can produce a capable Naval SAM like Shahed or Sayyad, I'm sorry, Sayyad-3G, Russia has every reason to help Iran refine and scale that capability. Both Russia's incentive for this will be both repayments and of course, because a strong Iran in the Gulf serves Russia's strategic interests by keeping the US attentions and resources divided. That's the strategic thinking. That is what a smart leader does. Second thing is that Russia has relevant technology to offer Iran in this realm and other. The Sayyad-3G, the missile here, most plausible capability gap as I mentioned earlier, is in its fire control radar. That is one. And the second sort of plausible capability gap it has, it has to do with its seeker technology. Well, guess what? Russia has both. The experience of the S-400 missile systems. Why do you think the US fear the S-400 missile system? Why do you think the U.S. sanctioned Turkey for buying the S-400 missile systems? Because the S-400 missile systems have the capability to lock in through their radar. They can find out the NATO jets, fighter jets, that is. So Russia has that capability. So is the Buk-M3. So is the naval stealth systems that Russia have. All of those represents exactly the kind of technology lineage that in my opinion could help Iran close this gap. And they are, as a matter of fact, and I know this for a fact based on reliable sources, that they are already There are already Russian radar technology finding its way into Iranian air defense systems. And this will be, if Russia goes with this even further, this will be an acceleration of an existing trend, not a new departure. And all this, it comes against the background of a recent flight by Russian. This is a cargo. This is the Ilyushin 76, a Russian. Why is this important, you may ask? Because there were 4 flights just within the last 10 days, between 8 and 10. To my knowledge, there were 3 within 8 days. If you add one more, that makes it 4 flights within 10 days. And I'm talking just as early as Last week, 4 flights by Russian cargo plane to Iranian capital Tehran within the range of 10 days. And where did they go? Did they land in Tehran airport? No, they went to a sensitive regional area. And this comes in a sensitive regional time. And this paves, uh, raised the question, is Moscow Okay, is Moscow moving silently or deliberately trying to be seen? 4 Russian cargoes to Tehran? I mean, think about it. And what message is Russia also sending to Israel and the U.S., of course? So it was reported, and I'm gonna share the link with you. That's from Global Security, and I usually read their stuff. I'm gonna put the link for you in the chat box if you want to read the story yourself later on, because I, I verified it from different sources, just to let you know. I don't depend on one. So at least 3 flights over the past 8 days, 3 And those came from, uh, uh, Mineralnye Vody in Russia, uh, Stavropol Krai, from that location to Iran. I have a, have a picture of the flight manifest. Uh, man, oh, I didn't put it for you. No, I did. Right here, right here. This is the Russian flight. This is the one that was the— those three flights from Mineralnye Vody in Russia, Stavropol Krai, to the Iranian city of Karaj. Karaj, to those who are familiar with geography of Iran, is in the western part of Tehran. That's what it is. And another flight which was earlier than this, took place towards the end of the year. So that makes a total of 4. And the location, by the way, where they landed, it landed at Fath Air Base, Iranian Fath Air Base, Iranian Fath Air Base in, in, in Kharaj, is the home of the IRGC regional commander headquarters. But it's not just that. It is also an industrial facility linked to Iran's programs, the missiles, the whatever else they have. Especially there is one specific aspect of this, and it's called Shahid Missami Group. Shahid Missami Group is the equivalency of DARPA for us in the US, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. To those who are familiar here— let me make sure. Uh, hold on a second. Yeah, can you hear me? Can you hear me? Yes, you guys can. Okay, I want to make sure. Now please give me a thumbs up because I got a call and it messed up my sound system here. Please give me a thumbs up if you can hear me. I will greatly appreciate it. Let me take a look here, see in the chat box. Amen. Uh, you say yes. Okay, thank you very much, guys. Appreciate it. This was in short. Now, when you think about all this, uh, because this location, the Shahid Misami Group, the equivalency of DARPA, as I mentioned, that's where all this technology, Iranian technologies, are, are being developed. So the destination in itself is not coincidental. And this is, by the way, the Russian flights, the Russian flight. This is not a cargo going to a commercial terminal. This is going directly into the heart of Iran's military industrial and IRGC's infrastructure. And that's why I'm saying the United States will be forced now to go back to the drawing board regarding the announcements of this Sayyad 3G. The timing is everything. So the timing is everything because remember the United States in the same time has deployed the second aircraft carrier to the region. President Trump has stated that while indirect nuclear negotiations in Geneva are ongoing, military option will remain available. If diplomatic efforts fail. I think Donald Trump is hesitating because he's starting to realize the cost of being involved. And let me just tell you something to those who are thinking otherwise. If you think that the U.S. is gonna strike Iran and it will be over within a day or two or a week, you are mistaken. Iran knows it, and Iran is ready for the long haul. Which will become very costly. Do you have any idea how much it costs for 1 hour for a fighter jet to take off? The cost is astronomical. So think about you have to maneuver the naval assets, you have to protect the aircraft carrier, you have to deploy the AP-3s, you have to— there's so many moving parts. And this is why, of course, Israel is maintaining its high readiness level. Even though they are saying, oh, they have damaged Iran's ballistic missile infrastructure. No, no, no, no, no, no, nothing's been— yeah, it might be damaged, but Iran's still ready. This is why also. Israel is hesitating on attacking Iran this time around. They either— the US and Russia— the US, I'm sorry, the US and Israel will have to do it together, or the US will have to go alone, but he knows what the consequences, which will be exactly what Israel wants. And this is why Russia's sort of running this sustained airlift into Iran at this precise moment. So the US and Israel are the most openly signaling the possibility of military action. And this is not a coincidence, in my opinion. That's Russia telling both Washington and Tehran the resupply is ongoing, the commitment is real, and any military action against Iran must account for a country being actively rearmed in real time. This is the message coming out of the Kremlin. So Moscow is moving with calibrated sort of, what's the word, visibility, open enough, but not enough, enough operational cover for plausible diplomatic deniability, but a tempo and scale that ensures the strategic message is received in Washington, in Tel Aviv, and yes, in the Gulf capitals, Riyadh, Qatar, Doha, United Arab Emirates, you got it, Jordan, and so forth. What about China? China is more capable, but China is also more cautious. China's calculus is fundamentally different from Russia's and of course, significantly complex because the position of Russia, of China on the global stage is very different than that of Russia. So what China wants from Iran is stable and already largely secure discounted oil, dependent strategic partner, and of course, one another key, a thorn in America's side that costs China nothing to maintain. No, it's like an investment. So China doesn't need to dramatically escalate military support to preserve the benefits. And once again, that 25-year partnership already locks all that in. China thinking very strategically. Here is where China will do the calculations. If Iran can produce, mass-produce the Sayyad-3G and that kind of capability, of course China will have to think in terms of the exposure Because what China doesn't want, doesn't want retaliation, economic one. That is why China is able to use powerful brakes to over, sort of over the military transfers overtly, openly, publicly. So China also have to worry about Chinese banks. China has to think about the Chinese technology. Or technology companies. Because why? The exports are deeply integrated into the global financial system. And that is a way that is different than Russian institution no longer are. This is why China will have to think calculation. But at the same time, don't be misled or misinformed. China has been quietly and will continue expanding its military footprints., but in a way that is directly benefiting Iran, of course, but in a steady way, quietly. That's the nature of the Chinese culture anyway. Chinese don't brag about things. Here is one thing you need to think about: Chinese dual use of electronics. Why is this important? Because those components can serve both civilian and military applications, and that is exactly what I have been flowed, has been flowing to Iran through some intermediaries. And those, by the way, the US have a hard time or difficulties sanctions because they couldn't know. But China doesn't do just this. China has something even far better. And you know what that is? Chinese satellite images. Because remember, Iran dumped GPS and went with Beidou. Well, guess what China did? China is providing satellite images and intelligence being shared with the Iranians. So the keyword from the Chinese perspective, which will be the same as the Russians, is deniability. And that is why China is doing it this way. China prefers to help Iran in ways that can be cleanly attributed. Smart move, I say. But at the same time, Sayad 3G, in my opinion, changes the equation, changes the calculus for China at the margins. That's why I'm saying those 3 countries, Iran, Russia, and China, the key now to this new global order that is changing before our eyes. But to China, it's not openly about it, and it's not gonna get too excited about— China doesn't do it that way. Because here is the harsh reality, and Beijing understands that. If Iran demonstrates it has genuinely capable naval air defense system, like the one they are working on and they have announced now, China may see this in value because China is going to say to itself, I'm going to invest, but I will expect a return on my investments. That is guaranteed. China will see the value in helping Iran because more defensive capable Iran in the Strait of Hormuz will complicate US power projection in the region. China also cares about deeply free flow of oil, transit of commodities, and so forth. And this is why more defensive capable Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, it's gonna make it complicated for the US. And of course, Beijing will do this quietly. And how they gonna do it? Is through supply chain, very quietly, technical advisors and so forth. But they already doing the intelligence sharing and the satellite imagery. That is one advantage also Iran has at its fingertip. One scenario where China will escalate more boldly, I do see one scenario. And I've been thinking about it. And that scenario is if the US-China tensions over Taiwan reaches a crisis point. Now, Mike, my word on this. In that case, China's incentive to activate Iran as a strategic distraction increases dramatically. How so, you may ask, is by sharing the by closing the gap in the Sayyad-3G missile technology that it needs. Remember that firing radar? China also has some really advanced systems. And that's what I see, because here's the thing. If the US— if I am to put myself in the Chinese mindset in Beijing, what will I say to myself? I'll say that If the United States military focuses on the Strait of Hormuz confrontation, it cannot simultaneously project maximum force into the Western Pacific. The US will not be able to. Remember last year when Iran fired all those missiles, which by the way, the US had to intervene to prevent a collapse of Israel because the systems in the defense systems weren't able to manage all. And that is again what China is thinking in those terms, because to China, the cost of Western retaliation are already being paid and the strategic benefits of sort of dividing US attentions is worth the price. You have to think strategically. You can't think in terms of, "Oh, we gotta fire on this or fire on that." No. And this is why I am seeing now the formation of this trilateral dynamics, that something new is forming. Perhaps the most important development, in my opinion, is not what Russia or China does bilaterally with Iran, but rather the emergence of what even as geopolitical analyst, I'm starting to call it like a loose but functional anti-Western alignment among those three. And just think about this, if you add North Korea to the mix, of course, North Korea economically has nothing to bring to the table. Let's just be straightforward about it. But they do have the missile technology capabilities and of course the nukes. And that is exactly where Russia, what it's doing right now, and the naval exercises they did with China back in, from 2019, that's when they start all three of them. Russia, China, and Iran, all three are becoming more sophisticated. They are also working on sharing intelligence on US naval movements in the Gulf because both countries, Russia and China, have the technology, especially the Chinese. Chinese have the sonar system now that they can detect any submarine, even the Virginia class, which is a nuclear operated one. It can go very deep. The Chinese sonar system can detect it. So think about this exchange between all three: Russia, Iran, and China. And this is where you have also the coordinated sort of messaging, the diplomatic positioning at the UN Security Council, especially between the two. Russia and China on issues, whatever that might be. It's not, of course, we all know it's not a formal alliance, as you know, but with the way you look at it right now is that Russia, Iran, and China have significant tensions among themselves. Don't forget that. Yeah, but at the same time, because why? Because you're going to have to think about the, the strategic competition that exists in Central Asia. You're going to have to think about the historical, uh, tensions that have existed before, leading to some mistrust at some point. But at the same time, it is, as of today, is a functional alignment around the shared goal of constraining American power. That is what you have to think about, the big brother picture. And the Sayyad-3G, this missile right here, this is exactly— the development of it gives now all three countries, Russia, Iran, and China, the fresh reason to deepen this coordination. That's how I see. So the bottom line to this, and I know I'm getting almost an hour here, it's just very important to understand these dynamics. The bottom line is, is that when you see how the Iranians picking up certain specific time where to make certain announcements, I will not rule out that Iran might have some other surprises. This is once again, in my opinion, and if I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but this is in my opinion why Donald Trump is hesitating. He's getting pressure from some entities to go for it, but he's hesitating because he's figuring out the cost versus the benefits. The cost outweighs the benefits. This is not Iraq. This is not Yemen. Even in Afghanistan, we couldn't do it quickly. Iran is a different ballgame. And this is why I believe the military support, especially from the Russians, is a foregone conclusion because the relationship has already crossed into the partnership territories per se, because the incentives are strong and the constraints have weakened. So when you consider, expect, in my opinion, expect now that the deeper radar and electronic technology transfer is going to be from Russians to the Iranians. The continued aerospace cooperation, the growing naval coordination. China also will do the same. It will support it, but quietly. The dual-use technology. All this is important to understand. So the bottom line that I want to leave you with is this, is that Sayyad-3G, the missile, is a data point. The, the trilateral alignment is the real story. This is what you have to think about. Hope you enjoyed this analysis here. Let me, uh, let me say thank you here to, uh, let me see. Thank you here to KL. Thank you very much for your Super Sticker. Truly appreciate your kind support. To those who wants to support the channel, if you want to, you know the type of information you are getting here. Yeah, yes, you might find it elsewhere. Good luck to you with that, suffice it to say. If you like what you are hearing, if you like the information, I will greatly and highly ask you to support the channel. And also please make sure to subscribe and share this video with others. So you know how the algorithm works, so the more people see the video, the more people will learn about where things are. I also wanted to let you know about my upcoming Asia trip. This is the link for it, should you decide to support. That is going to be in a few months. I have not decided yet when that's going to happen, but when we reach, when we reach the point where we have enough, I have enough here, then we will, uh, I will let you know the details. Remember to join me tomorrow on the other channel, Geopolitics and Money. We We will be talking about the economic aspects of the Iran-US war and what it means for an average American. That's mainly— we'll be here for the American audience here because it's important. A lot of Americans are clueless as to what's going on. So, so tomorrow I'll be doing a livestream with Elizabeth on the other channel. And on Friday, yes, I am going to share with you very important developments. About India. I don't want to spoil it for you, but it will be about India. So make sure to join me on Friday for that particular analysis I'm going to be doing. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, bye-bye.