Iran War Silently Draining America's Ability to Confront China?

All right, hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Excited to be with you, but I'm even more excited today because I have my dear friend Carl Zaha. Hi Carl!

Hi David, how are you?

Good, good, good to have you here, man. I know it's been a long time since we spoke, it's almost 2 months, 2 plus, uh, so I kind of couldn't wait to just get on, on the air with you to really address some key topics, uh, that I wanted to have the community learn from your perspective, not only your analysis but also the historical aspects of it. Just for those who might be here for the first time, let me tell you who Carl is. Carl is the host of the Silk and Steel podcast, uh, which is, uh, uh, an interesting channel. So let me put the link for you in the chat box., and I want you to check it out. Very, very, very interesting, uh, uh, uh, platform if you want to learn about history, uh, and this platform basically, basically for Carl, it focuses on China, on history, on culture and politics. Carl was born in China a month after Mao Zedong's death and left the, the, uh, left for China when he was 13, and he is currently based in Bali Indonesia. So, and you can, uh, just look at the, the bio. I put all the links for his social media. There is one thing I want to share with the community, and, and again, Carl, I'm not, I'm not being Mr. Nice, I'm being real here. I, I want to put a challenge to the community. I would like you guys by the end of this to have a 4,000 subscription for Carl's channel so he can cross over 100,000. I'm, I'm a subscriber to his channel because I learn from it. So if you want to learn something about history, this is your opportunity. Subscribe to his channel, and also we can push the channel forward because you need to have rational voices like Carl's on, on, on the global stage here. So, all right, Carl, we got a lot to cover. And just for the community to know, we're gonna be talking about Asia, we're going to be talking about, uh, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's recent visits to China, because China is becoming now the hub for Western leaders flying over. And Carl's going to provide us, uh, an insights about all this. In addition to, we're going to be talking about the Japanese Prime Minister visit to wartime gesture in Australia. You really are in for a treat for that. Well, Carl, we're gonna start with the recent combat in, in, in West Asia. Regarding the US-Israel-Iran war. A lot of analysts, even here in the US, they've been arguing that this has drained now critical US missile and air defense stockpile, and this is complicating the strategic— even though the US thinks that they can deter China, but let's just go with this argument— this strategic deterrence into the Asia, uh, uh, Pacific. How, in your opinion, will pause in foreign military sales, for example, to Taiwan affect what's going on in Asia?

Well, the pausing of military sales on Taiwan actually doesn't affect the, the military balance in Asia per se, because the whole goal of weapon sales to Taiwan is not actually helping Taiwan build up its defense capabilities. Because what traditionally happened is Taiwan will pay the top dollars up front, and then United States will take decades, often, you know, sometimes 20 years, to deliver on what they have been promised. Um, this is, uh, this is due to the bottleneck in U.S. production facility. You know, as we know, the, the U.S. manufacturing has been so hollowed out now, it started to affect the U.S. military-industrial complex. They just have so much backlogs, they, they, they will not be able to deliver those weapons in like any, any, any near-time future. Um, and, and I add to that that they have additional production walls because, you know, now they have the Chinese export control on rare earth. But those American weapons do need a lot of critical minerals to go inside. So the the, the whole, whole reason for weapon sale to Taiwan is actually a grift opportunity for the US military-industrial complex because Taiwan has been the best customer. Unlike Israel— Israel, United States just give money and weapon to Israel. Taiwan actually have to pay for, pay for top dollar. One of the famous Taiwanese opposition, uh, figure, Diao, uh, Diao, he has famously said like We're, we're, we're like worse than dogs in this situation with United States. Because you, if you are, if you want to, they want Taiwan to be like US's watchdogs in East Asia against mainly China. But you at least feed your dogs. You, you, you bring food, you give food to your dogs. But you are asking us to pay for weapons? It's like, this is, we're, we're being treated worse than dogs, right? Like how How can you ask your guard dogs to, to pay for their own food? Um, everybody in Taiwan kind of understand this, uh, weapon sale is a way for them to pay protection money, so to keep the US politicians happy so they will be on Taiwan's side. You know, nobody, even the hardcore independent activists, uh, in Taiwan, they, they don't expect that it's going to be Taiwan using those weapons to fight mainland China. They They actually expect US to spend blood and treasures to fight China for them. So this is a major difference between the Taiwan perspective and Washington perspective. From Washington's perspective, they like Taiwan to be Ukraine in East Asia to China. But, but even for the most hardcore Taiwan independent, uh, advocate, they rather have Americans to die and bleed for their independence. Like, there was no plan for like Taiwanese boys to go, go die on the beaches. Uh, uh, and so, so all this weapon sale, it is, it's just a blood infusion into the, the, the, the, the, the US military-industrial complex because Taiwan has accumulated large dollar surplus as a result of their trade with US, particularly sale of manufacturing of semiconductors. So this is a way for US to recycle those, uh Taiwan's dollar surpluses back into the US economy. It's not designed to actually fight China. I mean, like, like, they're selling like really outdated weapons. Uh, you know, the last batch of weapons that was delivered to Taiwan was Abrams tanks. Like, what the heck are you gonna do with those? By the time you need to use those Abrams tanks, it'll be too late because the PLA have already landed. It's too late. Um, so like, yeah, the whole point is to continually make, uh, the US military contractors happy. And yeah, and but the— but by fighting this, uh, unprovoked aggression against Iran, the US-Israel actually committed a grave mistake because you have strategic deterrent when, uh, before you use it. The whole idea of strategic deterrent is you, you show, I have this large pile of weapons, I have all these supposedly capability, you know, don't piss me off, I might use it. But once you actually use them and people realize, oh, that's all you got? And that's exactly what happened in the war in West Asia. 11 US military bases have been rendered uninhabitable. Um, the U.S. Navy had to pull a quite distance away from the Iranian coast, so they're outside of the, the Iranian missile barrage. And, and the, the whole idea of U.S. empire system in West Asia, which is U.S. will provide a security umbrella to the GCC countries, the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, in return for them to host for them to recycle their, again, their dollar surplus, which they gain from oil sales, back into U.S., you know, continue investment into U.S. stocks, bonds, and, and real estate, and also the U.S. AI bubble. Because let's not forget, they don't actually have the money to pop up the AI bubble. You know, they're expecting $500 billion for the Stargate project. They don't have $500 billion. They're expecting that the oil sheiks of the Gulf to pay for that, that AI investment. Well, guess what? That, that money is not coming because Kuwait hasn't sold any oil since the, the war started. And, you know, it's just only recently that there was a couple Qatari, uh, LNG tanker was allowed to transit through Strait of Hormuz, but they were heading over to Pakistan. And that's more because Iran want to keep the relationship with Pakistan friendly, so they allow Qatari to continue to supply natural gas to Pakistan because Pakistan and India has been particularly hard hit by the cutting off of gas and, uh, and, uh, oil from, from, from the Gulf. Because the, you know, a lot of, uh, people in Southeast Asia, South Asia and Southeast Asia where I am, a lot of people, they cook with gas. They go purchase like gas canisters from the grocery store, they come and they use that to cook. And that most of, most of that oil is coming from the Gulf. Um, so this is, this is a serious issue. And, and, and for the, for the Gulf countries, they, they have been living in a very cozy relationship with United States. You know, they were, they were pliant vassals to the US, whether on the, the issue of Israel or, or whatever. They have always been very happy to ply Donald Trump with a lot of gifts, you know, airplanes and what, whatnot. But what they got instead was not protection, because they— the understanding, again, it was their paying United States protection money. In return, they expect protection. Instead, by hosting the U.S. bases, instead of protection, they became target. They, they now inviting attacks by Iranian drones and missiles. And this is a lesson that's not lost for all the so-called U.S. partner countries, you know, including countries in East Asia— Korea, South Korea, Japan, Philippines, Taiwan, Australia, you know. Because, because let's face it, China has magnitude more missiles and more advanced missiles than Iran. So if United States cannot handle Iran Forget about taking on China. That's a fantasy. And this calls into the question of the whole US-led security, uh, security structure all around the world, not just in West Asia, because people can see, whoa, okay, so by hosting US bases, actually it's worse for me because that means I'm going to be a missile target. Uh, I mean that, but let's, let's be frank here, that was a US plan along for, for Australia, South Korea, Japan, Philippines, etc. They were designed to as missile— Chinese missile sponges for United States, so they can absorb the maximum impact on Chinese missiles, roges, so there will be less missiles of toward United States and its asset. Uh, so, but, but not now. People are wising up to this game. And, and they are— I bet behind the scenes they're, they're, they're also, uh, making preparations, making, making, making Plan Bs, uh, because this is all about, uh, again, this is— this whole war exposed United States as the emperor with no clothes. There is actually— U.S. military is actually a paper tiger. It has no option, military option, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which by the way was open before they started this illegal war against Iran. Iran. Yeah, and this is why Trump has been huffing and puffing and then back down at the last minute. He keep on threatening to bomb Iran to the Stone Ages, and then just before Monday the market opens, he suddenly— oh yeah, really? Because the GCC country begged me to stop, so I, I magnanimously granted their wishes. I mean, this is BS, man. Like, if U.S. have If US could reopen Strait of Hormuz by force of arms, they would have done it by now. That's true. They, they, they can't because they, they do not have the capability. And this is why we have a, a, a stealth, uh, a stalemate, stalemate right now in, in the Gulf. Uh, uh, you know, United— Trump is playing a game of chicken. He's counting on the block— his blockade on blockade to starve out the Iranian economy. So hopefully there will be like some kind of, uh, regime collapse, economic collapse, that led to the regime collapse. This is fantasy. Iran has been under Western sanctions for so long. The Iranian people are more prepared to deal with hardship than Americans. You know, Americans don't really know what hardship is, but they were about to find out when that shortage really hit. Because the shortage hasn't really, really hit yet. Yes. No, people have seen price increases all across the board, but that is price increasing anticipation of the real shortage because of the long time delay for the oil to travel around the world. For the oil tanker to travel from Persian Gulf to the port of Los Angeles in LA, it takes about 50 days. And which means the last oil tanker that left the Persian Gulf before the war started already arrived in the port of Los Angeles about a week ago. So from now on, the real shortage is about to begin. Um, and, and, and already, you know, you are seeing 45%, uh, increase in farm bankruptcy, uh, over last month, and 70% of the U.S. American farmers that they can't afford the increase in diesel and fertilizer prices. Um, this is why I don't buy the talk that this is Donald Trump's 5D chess to, to like, to, uh, profit at the expense of everybody else because US is a large energy producer. No, no, Americans will be hurt too. The, the problem is that oil and gas are their globalized commodities or globally traded commodities. If the other countries can't get their oil and gas from Persian Gulf, they will buy it from elsewhere, you know, sometimes even buy it from America. But what that does is just raise the price up for everybody. And, and the oil company, they were more than happy to— American big oil company, they're more than happy to ship the expensive LNGs from United States to Europe, uh, to Asia to make a big profit, which again pushed the price up for American, American domestic consumers. And this is— and, and also on top of that, uh, U.S. don't have the capacity to make up for the loss of, uh, oil and gas coming from the Gulf. U.S. is a net oil importer. U.S. exports 3 million barrels of oil per day but imports 6 million barrels of oil per day. Um, the, the only, the only thing that U.S. can export in abundance is natural gas. Um, but, but again, like, like I said, the exporting American LNGs, uh, the American LNG is very expensive to ship it all the way to India, to Japan. Um, and, and this is great for American big oil companies Shell just reported their quarterly earnings report for the month of, uh, January to March. They doubled their profit from their last quarter. And if you think about it, the war really began at the end of February, so that means their next quarterly earnings report is, is even going to be even more spectacular. Yeah, this is great for Big Oil, who actually funds Donald Trump. Their traditional Republican donors. Yeah, but everybody else is paying for the price. You know, all the Americans, we pay for the price at the pump. We pay price. And oil, because it goes like oil— US is 40% more dependent on oil than China because, you know, like all the trucks, all the trucks on the highway, all the diesels that's been used, um, the, the, the, the, the, it goes in fact into the price of everything. All the goods that needs to be shipped, right, because the shipping price go up, because the fuel price has gone up, will go up. Uh, plastics price is going up. Plastics made from palm oil. Um, uh, what else? The fertilizers, you know, fertilizers, uh, nitrogen, potassium Both the nitrogen and urea, they're synthesized using natural gas. Natural gas price has been rising, so the fertilizer price is going up. So even though US is a large gas producer, even though United States is a net natural gas exporter, but because they're— because it's a globally traded commodity, the price still goes up. For the U.S. domestic consumers. It does not— it's great for Big Oil, it's, it's bad for everybody else. But that, that's how U.S. system has been designed from the get-go. It's always funnel money to the top, right? Make the rich even richer. Um, so, so Donald Trump is probably happy with it, but, uh, you know, the American people will have to suffer through the consequences.

And we will, we will address more about this particular aspect when we get to the point of talking about Donald Trump's recent trip to China. I want to go back, Carl, to— but briefly, I want to go back to Taiwan. And the reason I want to go back to this, for two things. You mentioned one thing, of course, that no one else here in the US addressed it. And last night I had a conversation with a dear friend of mine, uh, uh, we were talking about, uh, this particular point. And I said, because when Donald Trump didn't talk about Taiwan when he was in China. And those are saying, oh, they put the, the sale on hold, whatever. I do know for a fact there is $11 billion on the table on hold right now. But that's not because Donald Trump, uh, just, uh, sort of just wanted to please President Xi. No, no, no, it's because of what you mentioned— access to rare earth elements. We are running short on that, and that is the reason why. But I don't want to bring it about just this. I want to bring this about the Taiwan one you mentioned. There are some now inside Taiwan thinking, and my reference is to the visit of this, uh, individual, uh, Cheng Li-wen. I hope I pronounce it correctly, and please correct me, Carl, if I did wrong. Now, she's the opposition, okay? She's the head of the KMT. Is this a signal in your opinion that there are voices inside Taiwan that is saying, you know what, we ain't gonna be following what the Americans are saying, we're gonna see the reality for what it is? Is this trip communicating that message?

Oh, definitely. Tsai Ing-wen, the chairwoman of KMT, she actually made it very explicit on a speech she gave before she traveled to mainland China. She said, If you really love Taiwan, you do not want to turn Taiwan into a battlefield. We do not want to be the Ukraine of East Asia. She explicitly said that. I mean, like, I'm sure it's, it's a lot of people got her message. Like, why, why would you, why would you want to be the pawn? Why would you turn yourself into a battlefield for the benefit of the United States? Nobody, nobody in Taiwan wants a war. Um, and, and her, her aim is very simple. He's like, we should just, uh, repair our relationship with mainland China. So jaw-jaw is better than war. I mean, that's a well-received message. I think there's a political, um, tectonic plate shift in Taiwan itself because, uh, the, the, the more pro-independence DPP party, which has been ruling in Taiwan for more than a decade. Yeah, they are getting very unpopular. Um, like, people are just sick and tired of them because they've been ruling for so long. Uh, you know, Taiwan's economic prospect hasn't improved over last year. Like, the Taiwan is facing the same problem as a lot of the Western advanced economies, is that the housing price is high, um, the youth face a very bleak economic future. You know, they, they're not making, uh, unlike their parents' generation and their grandparents' generation where they can look forward to decades of economic growth ahead of them. What they face is economic stagnation. You know, they're not looking, uh, like they don't think things are gonna get better 5 years from now, 10 years from now. And a lot of the wealth again is concentrated to at the top. And they're— Taiwan's main economic pillar right now is TSMC, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation. And the US has done its best trying to hollow out, uh, TSMC. Like, you know, first they, they made TSMC to invest in the Arizona plant, and the whole idea is because they don't want the manufacturing in Taiwan anymore, they want the manufacturing in the United States. And Trump Trump administration has been forcing TSMC to do technological transfer to Intel, which is American semiconductor firm that was in trouble. And, and, uh, and Trump had actually explicitly said this in an interview when asked about Taiwan after his trip. Well, he's, he's— first he said, well, Taiwan is very close to, to, to, to China and it's very far from us, which is the truth. It's like you know, you got to be realistic. Like, there's not that much we can do about it. It's just a lot closer to China. I mean, that's actually the truth. And then to add to that, add to that, he added, he's like, by the way, I'm not happy about Taiwan stealing our semiconductor industry. So that TSMC is the sole pillar of the— holding up the Taiwan economy right now. But United States, whether through Trump administration or Biden administration, has been putting pressure on TSMC to move their production from Taiwan to United States because they, they, they, they also are making contingency plans in case they lose Taiwan to mainland China. That's why they're trying to force them to move the, move the manufacturing plant. So, so, but what does this mean for youth on Taiwan? It means It means this is— they are facing a very increasingly cloudy economic outlook. Uh, U.S. is hollowing out the, the main competitive edge of the U.S., the Taiwan economy. And, you know, the prices on Taiwan is already high. A lot of young people can't afford to own their houses, you know, they have to shack up with their parents. I mean, basically all the problems that the Zoomers in U.S. face um, so that's why the ruling party in Taiwan is not popular. And one of the way the, the, the Taiwanese ruling party tried to win votes is they want to distract people, public attention, from the bleak economic situation by trying to stir up tensions with mainland China and say, oh, we, we are the defender of Taiwan, right? You have to, you know, don't trust those KMT people, they're, they're going to be sellout, you know, they're going to sell out Taiwan to the, to the CPC. Um, but you know, you can only— a boy can only cry wolf for so long. So like after 10, 10 years of this, people are wising up and they're getting sick and tired of it. They're like, okay, why, why don't we just, why don't we just make friends? Why, why, why can't we just have a friendly relationship with mainland China? Instead. And especially when, uh, the power of mainland Chinese economy has been growing proportionally over the last decade. Um, now, now there's, you know, there, there, uh, there's— now there— before, before the cultural, you know, Taiwan and, and Hong Kong used to have an outsized cultural influence on mainland China just because they're more developed, they're, they're more advanced economies in the '80s and '90s. Um, I, like, all my cousins, older cousins, they will be able to sing songs like, like Hong Kong songs and Taiwan songs. But now lately, that, that trend is starting to reverse, you know. You know, the mainland has a lot of more cultural production that's, they're being exporting to Taiwan, to the rest of Southeast Asia. And, and the Taiwanese government is actually saying, oh no, that's, that's infiltration. That's the Chinese influence op. But I mean, there's really nothing to stop it because there's a natural language and cultural affinity. So people, people just go to what's cool, you know, like China is cool now. And, and this is the way— this is why China has a lot of patience on the Taiwan issue. They understand time is on their side. Every year that goes by their relative position vis-à-vis United States will continue to strengthen. Um, you know, if you compare, like, one thing everybody noticed that Donald Trump has been very obsequious, right? He tried to really like kiss up to Xi Jinping by saying, oh, we are such great friends, have always a great relationship. And, and the, the, the reason he's on his best behavior this time is because time, you know, since his last trip to China, which was 8 or 9 years ago, a lot has changed. I mean, China today in 2026 is totally different from China in 2016 when Donald Trump first became president. Yeah, you know, like, shit, in 10 years China has got a lot more powerful, and that it showed during the tariff war when China push back and say, you know what, no rare earth for you. And, and U.S. has no, no, uh, no, no, no, no recourse to that. So this is, uh, this, this is why China can't afford to wait out the Taiwan issue. Uh, you know, they, they, the, the economic and cultural clout of mainland China will continue to grow, and you will naturally draw the younger population. Um, you know, like, like the, the, the, the, the Another thing is that the people, the youth in Taiwan, they also follow the Western trend. The Western trends right now is China maxing. All the young people, all the Zoomers in US are China maxing right now. So that also has an impact. It has a roundabout way to influence youth in Taiwan. So China is cool now. Like now, this is making a change in people's perception. Mainland China, uh, and people no longer see us as big bad, uh, Cold War enemy. So that, that is why China is very patient. What China does not want is they do not want the red line of Taiwan declaring independence to be crossed. So this is, this is why they repeatedly make that point to Donald Trump. And, and then Donald Trump this time also reiterated that they do not support Taiwan independence. And so that, that China is happy with that. China is, China is, is happy with, with, uh, with that promise. And, and as long as the red line of the, uh, de jure independence is not declared, China is, is, uh, is patient enough to let the status quo riding out. You know, China has already been patient for the last 70 years. China can afford to wait another 10 years.

Yeah, you're absolutely correct, and you are right about the young generation in Taiwan. They are, if I may use the term, and I'm not judging here, but they are clueless as to what's going on. When I was there, I have made it my goal to address and talk to young generation. You know, you run to some in a coffee shop, whatever, and you just strike a basic conversation. And my objective for striking that conversation, I wanted to know and learn. And they've been consuming too much of the American propaganda regarding democracy and all that. And I asked them, well, I remember one guy, I asked him, I said, do you have an understanding of the complexity of the issue? Do you understand that if a war breaks out with China, you will be wiped out? I mean, do you understand how severe that is? Well, no, the Americans will come and protect us. I said, you might want to think that twice again. The US is not coming to defend you, and US will not defend you.

Well, I mean, everybody knows if the shit hits the fan, a lot of the upper middle class, uh, they're gonna flee. Yeah, they will pack their bags and they will make their way to Irvine, you know, Irvine, California, which is true, which is true.

This leads us to talk now about Donald Trump's visit, because you mentioned the economy aspects of it, which, by the way, you are absolutely correct. Prices are going up here. I live here, of course prices are going— even for us in state of Texas, we're not getting used to see a gallon of gas crosses $4. They're like, what? You know, in some other parts, car, they're about $6 or $7.

I'm old enough to remember there was a time the US gas price is less than a dollar back in early 2000s. Yeah, before the Iraq War.

I used to pump at 99 cents.

Yeah.

So, and this, I wanted to ask this, Carl, given the visit, I know it happened and all that stuff, but I wanted to have your insight and perspective, and not only the analysis aspect but the historical facts of this. Do you— it's not that, do you think it looks like Trump returned to Washington empty-handed? Is this the message that Washington— that, I'm sorry, that Beijing was talking to Washington on an equal footing and Washington didn't come to realize, oh, we are in a different time?

Well, I think the, the whole trip was very ad hoc, um, from some administration part. First of all, this is a trip that Trump really wanted. Um, you know, they have been— they had— they're the one who was announcing way in advance that Trump is going to visit, Trump is going to visit, Trump wants to go see Xi Jinping. And, uh, and China only confirmed their trip like at the last minute, like a couple of days before Trump, like, okay, yeah, Trump, I know Trump is coming. And on the day that Trump was, uh, plane was to arrive in Beijing, on People's Daily front page, the biggest headline was the president, President Xi Jinping received a visit from the president of Tajikistan. And on the side, on the side column is, oh yeah, Donald Trump is flying into Beijing too. And so, I mean, this is, uh, again, Trump wanted this trip as a photo opportunity to present himself as a world leader because he want to get away from Epstein file, his failure in the Strait of Hormuz. He's— this is the opportunity for him to present to the American people, oh look, I'm well respected in China. People come out with flowers, they greet me with flowers, you know, like they treat me with great respect, um, and And, and for that, okay, China gave him that. China gave it. It's like, okay, that's great, we can give you face, no problem, that's easy. We'll throw a couple of Boeing orders your way too, we'll throw you a bone. But, um, they just didn't come. I mean, look at, look at compared to the Russian visit, uh, uh, the following visit by President Vladimir Putin. Putin brought out who is who of the Russian bureaucracy. All the, all the, all the government, um, agencies to come here to do deals with the Chinese counterparts. Whereas, uh, besides, you know, Marco Rubio and Secretary—

do you mean, do you mean Marco Lu?

So that's funny because China placed, uh, sanction on Marco Rubio while he was a senator for accusing China of committing genocide in Xinjiang. And, and instead of taking off the sanction, which China could do— China can just waive the sanction— instead of doing that, they just change his Chinese name, you know, using a different Chinese character to transliterate his Chinese name. So I think that's a reminder, say, like, uh, like, yeah, we, we, we could take off your sanction, but we decided to do this thing just to— that's a reminder. That's a reminder. This is what we could do. And You know, they could just permanently waive the sanction. You know, it's within their power, but they like, no, we'll leave the sanction in place, we'll just change your name so, so it does not violate our own laws.

Uh, but anyway, does that name, by the way, Carl, does this name mean anything in—

No, no, no, it's just a different— it's just a different, uh, so there are many, many homophone Chinese characters, they just choose a different Chinese character for it. So, um It's just a funny sight thing. But besides Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth, yeah, like, who else, you know, among the U.S. government did Trump bring? It's just, uh, Trump's own son and his daughter-in-law. It was like, like, this again, this was an opportunity for Trump to do photo ops. Like, not— there's no— usually this type of summit, they would have long negotiation while beforehand so they can announce some deal at the summit. But since this is a photo op for Trump, you know, that's what Trump got. Trump got the opportunity to pose himself in front of camera like the reality TV show host that he really is. You know, he was, he was during the, uh, the honor inspection of the honor guard, he was, he was trying to like act as a host, you know, showing, showing President Xi around. I mean, this guy's ridiculous.

You know what I found also interesting, Carl, is when President Xi Jinping— I'm sure you heard or listened to his speech— when he mentioned Thucydides. And I don't think so Trump got it. I don't think so Trump got it.

I don't think Trump know how to pronounce Thucydides. I think like, like, I was really surprised when Trump said, oh, President Xi call US a decline climbing power. And I was like, really? I mean, like, no Chinese leader would ever be so undiplomatic like that. Then what I realized what happened was because President Xi Jinping was speaking about Sucedidi's trap, and he said— and President Xi's whole message is that we don't have to fall into the trap. It's not inevitable that we should clash. We just, you know, just avoid the trap altogether. We, we We can coexist. That his message. But because Donald Trump doesn't understand Thucydides trap, which is actually a term coined by American Harvard historian Graham Allison, so he had to have some people to explain to him. And when people explained to him the whole concept of Thucydides trap, okay, there was the Peloponnesian War between a rising power, the Sparta, and the declining power Athens. You know, the clash is inevitable because the the, the current, the declining power, Athens, want to keep its power. You want to keep the rising power squatted down. So that was the idea of Thucydides Trap. So when Trump heard that, he's like, oh, so he's calling United States a declining power? And that's what he got out of that conversation. He didn't get it.

He didn't get it.

Yeah. And that's, that's a lot of this is really due to kind of the American leadership's mindset of zero-sum. They don't, they don't want— they just— for them to win, everybody have to lose. So even when Xi Jinping— the only reason Xi Jinping is using the 'Succidious Trap' because he thought, okay, by using the term coined by American historian, he thought he's speaking their language. But look, we're dealing with Donald Trump here. There's no way Donald Trump read 'Succidious Succedities. There's no way he know how to pronounce suciities. So, so like, all they got out of it, oh, China call US a declining part. No, no, no, no. Xi Jinping says we don't have to fight, we can be partners, we can, we can cooperate. You know, he said the world is big enough for United States and China. That's his whole point. His whole point is saying, okay, all this suciities trap business, that's bullshit, that's American BS, we don't have to follow that. That's what he really trying to say. But, but, but all the Americans just heard, oh, he called US a declining power. And, and then Donald Trump tried to spin it to his own benefit, but he said, but this is true, it's all because of Sleepy Joe that made America decline. But I, I turned the things around, and that is why they respected me. That's why they have people waving flowers to welcome me, because I made America great again. Because again, you know, whole Donald Trump platform of making America great again is actually based on the premise that America is a— is declining. America is a declining power. That's why you need to make America great again, right? And, and he's taking credit for doing that, which, uh, you know, people don't understand. Trump is actually very popular in China. But he's not popular in the reason that Fox— yeah, he's not popular in the way that Fox, Fox TV show host thinks it is. He's popular because everybody in China think Trump is the best president of the United States for China, because Trump is there to accelerate the decline of American Empire, which he did very well.

By the way, did you— were you aware of the incident with Fox that got a ticket in China for violating the law? And you know, they want to start complaining about the cameras.

And, and this guy— so, so, so this is, this is a Fox News guy, right? Like, if they were reporting— if they're— if they're— if the Fox News— this is where I think they lost it, because, you know, for the Fox boomer audience, you know, they, they actually would want like rule of law in the United States. They would want like, like the transgression to be punished, you know, people get locked up. And then, and you are telling them China actually enforces laws? And, and not only that, he was lying because in Beijing where, uh, he claimed he got a ticket, yeah, the The procedure is you will get a text message, um, which gives you 10-minute grace period to move your car if you park illegally. And then within the 10 minutes, if you don't move your car, then yeah, you get, you get a ticket. So they must park there more than illegally, more than, more than 10 minutes, uh, because he claimed he only parked 2 minutes, which is probably BS. And, uh, and then, uh, Chinese citizen actually caught him, filmed him walking in the bicycle lane, like a very busy bicycle lane.

I saw it, I saw it, Carl, I saw it.

When all the scooters are just trying to skirt by him, like, I am like, what the heck is he doing? And you are complaining about— he was saying, oh, in China nobody jaywalk because like soon the camera will catch you, and then then they will get you. And there he is, very busy bicycle lane, blocking everybody. And, uh, Shanghai Daily, uh, journalist Andy Bohan actually had a good theory. He's like, oh, he's doing this on purpose to interrupt the traffic in hope a Chinese policeman would show up and stop him, and then he will have that on camera and say, oh, look at the Chinese police state, look at the Chinese aggression. Instead, people just ignore him, trying to go around him, and he looked like a fool, like walking just like this lumbering American fool walking in the middle of the bike lane, blocking everybody. But that's Fox News for you.

Yeah, I saw it and I was like, I've been in China and I know how the laws are regarding where you need to walk and all that. You don't see anybody walking in those lanes. Those are for bikes.

And it's dangerous. It's dangerous for you, your own health. You can get run over.

They run very fast. For that. So yeah, that's very, very interesting. I want to just mention one point here before we move to the next theme here, which is just back to Xi Jinping, the series comment. For me, Carl, you know why it was surprising? It was surprising because this is the first time I've been following now China since literally late '90s. No, no, no head of state ever brought up something like that. And that's what surprised me. And I said to myself, this is measured. Xi, President Xi, will not say this in vacuum. There is a specific message. But of course, the taco didn't get it.

Of course, that's the way it is.

You know, it's embarrassing. It's embarrassing for a head of state not to understand what the series Trap is all about. I felt embarrassed as an American I really felt embarrassed. We don't have a president who is, uh, well-versed in, in world affairs and understand movies.

I mean, that, that was already plenty obvious when, uh, during the War in the Freedom of the Movies, because you have all these Iranian leaders who are trained in the Kantian philosophy, right? And then you have in United States, we just rule by bad TV personality like Donald Trump and Pete Hedseth. You know, what was Pete Hedseth's last job? His last job was, uh a, a, a Fox live show host, and so was Donald Trump. So Donald Trump was a reality TV show host. I mean, it's not the same caliber, man. It's not the same.

It was very, very embarrassing. So let's move on to talk about the recent action by a prime minister of Japan, which we all know, uh, the controversial one. And this one has to do with her, uh, her, uh, of course we all know about Japanese atrocities, war, war crimes, the, uh, the historic wartime, uh, uh, that, or atrocities they've committed in many, many Asian countries. What I found interesting, Carl, and please if you can shed some light on this historically, uh, why Japan decided to go to Australia, okay, for this historic wartime gesture. So what does it mean when Japan went to Australia but did not issue an apology to, let's say, China for what happened in Nanjing?

I mean, if she had done in China what she did in Australia, the whole Japan-China relationship would be like at the next level. A lot of the historical enmity would just collapse right there. But she actually, 10— more than 10 years ago, when she was a, a con— a congresswoman in the Japanese parliament, she actually challenged, uh, then the Japanese, uh, prime minister for, um, trying to offer an apology over, uh, World War II, uh, Japanese atrocities in, in, in China and in other Asian countries. And she's like, what do you mean? Like, how? Why? You know, you, you only apologize if it's a war of aggression. But what is the definition of war of aggression? Come on, come on, you— are you trying to say that, that, that, that the Japanese World War II action in the Asian country are not war of aggression? I mean, this is why, like, he— she's not a Uh, she's a hated figure in China because, because her wartime revisionism was well known. But then there she is, while traveling to Australia, she went to the World War II Memorial in Australia and she kneeled down and placed a flower. And yeah, this is, uh, this is the way that was perceived in China. It's like, okay, so she would do this to white countries. She will apologize to white countries but, but had adopt a completely different attitude to fellow Asian countries. And, and, and, and especially, you know, like when her visit to Trump and like she was all fawning over him and then playing the, the total fangirl. And, and this is a country that actually dropped two atom bombs in Japan, you know, and like This is the kind of the, the, the, like, this is why some people say, okay, these Japanese right-wing politicians, yeah, they only respect force. They only respect, you know, uh, uh, uh, the— there's only one language that they understand, the language of force. Because, because American firebombed Tokyo, because U.S. dropped two atomic bombs and occupied Japan, this is why they act very obsequious toward United States and, and other US, you know, partner white countries, like majority countries like Australia. Um, but they, they would not, uh, uh, you know, they would not do the same in China or Korea. Why? Because they don't think— they, they feel— I think they feel themselves like, yeah, they're better. They're like the better class of Asians, right? It's like I don't need to apologize to you, you are, you are below me. Uh, but, but, but toward the, the American Australians, now they place themselves a little bit below. Yeah, they— it's like a, it's like a hierarchy. Um, but, but people, people in, in Asia, particularly China and Korea, they, they see this, they know what's going on, and they don't like it. And this is like, if she— I mean, it's, it's very simple. If she has done that gesture at the Australian World War II Memorial in China or in Korea, a long way to heal the historical wound. But he will never do that. She will never do that because she know she is appealing to her own very right-wing voter base in Japan. You know, this is why she continue to play tough with China. And then she, she, she say she would, uh, Japan would involve, you know, war over Taiwan. I mean, that was completely, completely unnecessary. And, and on the other hand, on the other hand, yeah, United States, who, you know, have this, uh, you know, Japan is ultimately still a client state of United States. But you, we're here, you have Donald Trump go to China and say, well, Taiwan, you know, it's very close to China, very far from us. And then Japan is the one that volunteers like, ah, we gotta be involved in a Taiwan war. I, I think there's a, there's a couple reasons for that, because Japan also rightly recognized that United States is withdrawing, um, you know, it's, it's, it's facing resource constraint, um, all around the world. So it, it's, it's actually pivoting away from East Asia. But what Japan wants to do is they want to step into the void They want to fill the, the, the, the vacuum that was left behind by United States by taking this opportunity to remilitarize, because that's one of the agenda of, uh, Sanae Takahashi from all along. Because her and the, the, the right-wing Japanese politicians like her, they think Japan is not— has not been a normal country since World War II because they got the peace constitution imposed by the United States. Which says US is not allowed to have a military force, only a self-defense force, and they cannot deploy those self-defense force, uh, for purpose other than self-defense, you know, for example, outside of Japan's territory. And so for years they tried to scrap the Peace Constitution, particularly the Article 9 of the Peace Constitution, but the Peace Constitution is actually very powerful. Very popular among the Japanese public, so they can't outright just repeal the Constitution and, and, and remove it. So they try to, starting from her predecessor Shinzo Abe, they try to reinterpret what that Peace Constitution Article 9 means. They said, well, okay, well, it's— we, we, we have— we need to defend ourselves, um, So in contingencies or in, uh, wars around the country of Japan, we should be able to deploy our military to help our allies, in this case United States. Um, but, but even then they did not specifically mention Taiwan, right? I mean, like, the whole Taiwan issue is just a way for the Japanese right-wing politicians, yeah, to as an excuse to remilitarize Japan so they can be quote-unquote normal country again. They can have— but they can— they will be able to deploy military, Japanese military abroad. So Shinzo Abe's administration already quote-unquote reinterpreted the Constitution that would allow Japan to send troops abroad. Um, so, so Japan sent some, uh, like, um, not combat troops, but like, it was a unit.

Yes.

Yeah, to— during Iraq War, uh, for United States. And, and, and now they're saying, okay, you know, we could do more, you know, because the Japanese military also has been structured to serve as a support role for US Navy. For example, like a lot of their, um, they're actually quite good in terms of like anti-submarine warfare and stuff like that, and that was their role. So, so they, they, the Japanese Navy will specialized on the anti-submarine warfare, uh, for the U.S. Navy, for the U.S. Seventh Fleet. Uh, but that, that is a way for the Japanese right-wing politicians again to kind of covertly shift the stance of, um, uh, shift the role of the Japanese military to allow them to deploy outside of Japan and, and, and, and to have quote unquote, a normal military, a normal country. That has been their goal all along. And so this is why Sanae, Sanae Takaichi is pursuing this, um, that looks outwardly contradictory, uh, a stance, you know, even while United States was kind of backing off on all those Taiwan issues. Japan is like being really gung-ho and aggressive, saying we will get involved. Because that's their excuse to rearm themselves and, and to rearm, because they, they, they— this is how they approve a large increase on the Japanese defense budget, which went up.

Yeah, it went up. I've been following that last year, uh, and, and I'm not saying I'm being alarmed, but I am surprised at the percentage involved in that uh, for that.

It's a big increase because I think, um, Japan right now is facing some tough economic times. Uh, you know, the, the Japanese car industry has been one of the sole bright spots in Japanese economy after United States imposed Plaza Accord on them, uh, in 1980s. Uh, but now the Japanese car industry is facing some serious competition from, you know, Chinese EVs. So I think their goal is to— okay, you know what, if we can't compete on building better cars, we can shift our production toward making weapons, towards the defense industry, right? So, so that in the short term you will boost the economy, you know, like that, that's the same, uh, that's just how Hitler did it before World War II, you know, shift a a lot of investment into the defense industry. So, so it looks good on the GDP figures, you know, like the economy is growing quickly, expanding employment. So this is something that Japan is trying to do right now. Uh, they're trying to shift resources into the defense industry to offset kind of the declining, uh, declining economic growth.

Yeah, that's, that's very I'm keeping an eye on it, especially when there was a conversation in Brussels. And even when I was in Europe recently and I had a talk with someone about— brought that issue back because a year and a half ago, when Biden was still in office, it was a conversation inside the halls of NATO in Brussels. And the conversation was about opening the office of NATO in Tokyo.

In Japan.

And right there, to me, was like, okay, why would you want to go to that length to open up, given the history of Japan in Asia? Oh, they said, no, that was just for administrative— no, no, no, has nothing to do with that, unless Japan will be considering sort of increasing its defense budget. And that's exactly 3 months later, they announced the increase of their— and I'm like You know, you can see the dots here where this is going.

That, that's what they also try to do in Europe. This is why, uh, they're all— they're, they're asking all the NATO countries to increase their, uh, defense budget to, to, to 5% of the— their GDP, which is crazy. Even United States today do not spend 5% on, on defense. Um, and, and this is because, again, Europe facing the same problem. Their manufacturing sector is under pressure. So they're like, okay, let's shift production to tanks.

Yeah, I do know some departments inside the US government, mainly will be about the Pentagon. This gesture by Takahashi to Australia, to them, he said, well, this means a lot for the Quad, has nothing to do which I don't buy that argument anyway, because to me was, if she is to apologize to Australia, you may as well apologize to the rest of Asia. I saw the images in Nanjing. I had a chance to go and saw with my own eyes. Horrific, horrific, you know, what a human being can do to another human being.

If a Japanese prime minister had done what the German prime minister did in Warsaw, the famous Warsaw Ghetto, all the historical enmity would evaporate overnight. Yeah, but like, no Japanese prime minister have done that. Uh, like, if Sanae Takeuchi did what she did at the World War II Memorial in Australia, if she went to Nanjing and did that, like, a lot of the historical bad memory will evaporate. But she would not do that because, again, her purpose is not to repair relationship with between Japan and China. Her relationship is continue to stoke tensions in order to justify rearming the Japanese military, you know, to, to, to, to, to boosting the Japanese defense industry. That is her goal.

Yeah, very, very interesting. Well, we are coming to the top of the hour here, Carl. I want to just ask you one question before I turn the floor for you for last word. And what I wanted to ask is How do you see the conflict in West Asia moving forward?

Yeah, this could go on longer than what anybody expected, because again, the Iranian demand for ending the standoff is very clear. Iran wants a security guarantee that they will not be attacked again by U.S. and Israel, and for that to happen, They need the US military to get the fuck out of West Asia, okay, so taking all its, uh, withdrew from all the military bases. And, uh, they want to keep enriching uranium without being bothered, and they want US to lift all sanctions, um, and this is— and they want US to recognize the Iranian control of Strait of Hormuz. All these demands are kind of anathema to the US Empire, because accepting any of these demands would mean utter defeat of the US Empire in West Asia. Like, that's it, it's gone. The US imperial system will collapse. This is why Donald Trump find it very hard to accept those terms, and this is why he is, um, he's dragging this out. By playing chicken, a game of chicken with Iran, by doing this blockade on blockade. Um, again, I don't think that will work because like I said, Iranian people are a lot more prepared for, uh, handling hardship. Uh, not so much Americans. You know, Americans have been living pretty well, uh, you know, pretty, pretty, pretty pampered lives. And now when the shortage really, really hit, hit, it's going to, it's going to be bad. So right now, I think there hasn't been enough consequences for US. There hasn't been enough pain suffered by, by the US that pressured Donald Trump. So this is why I think it will be drawn out, but in a few months' time, You know, when the shortages really hit, um, I think, uh, things might be different. But, but, but at this point, Donald Trump is trying to drag this out as long as possible. Uh, he has no off-ramp because really not up to him right now to end the war. You know, he, he can't end the war if he accepts Iranian demands, but again This is going to be very, very hard swallow for American deep state, uh, to, to, to, to just give up on their imperial project in West Asia. And, and not to mention Israel. This is— there's one actor that want to keep this war going, uh, is Israel. And I still believe this is the reason this war was fought in the first place, because, uh, you know, Netanyahu's government saw this as their best chance to get America directly involved in a war against Iran, to remove this biggest obstacle to their Greater Israel project. They, they would not want that, uh, they would not let that go so easily. Uh, this is why we might be in it for the long haul, you know, at least for, uh, I don't know, for the next few months, you know, which is— will be bad because the window on the spring planting season is already closing. And that means farmers not getting their fertilizers. There will be much reduced yield toward end of year. There will be food shortages globally. It will be really bad.

Well, I'm glad you shared this because I want the community to hear your perspective about the come or what lies ahead for the US-Israel-Iran war zone. I'll give you the last word, Carl, and especially if you could please mention something about where do you see the future of the US-China relations given what just happened.

Well, actually, I think there might be a short-term stability in US-China relationship as a result of Trump's visit because, um, Like I said, you know, like United States have finally realized, uh, they're gonna have trouble to contain China. They're gonna have, have trouble to, uh, to, to have a confrontation with China. So they will, you know, simply hunker down for the next few months to concentrate on other areas, uh, pivot to other areas. Uh, so one, one spot to keep an eye out for is Cuba. You know, because, uh, Marco Rubio, he has, uh, presidential aspirations for 2028, and Latin America is his baby. This is, you know, the whole Venezuelan operation, that is, uh, that, that is his brainchild. And, and the, the one of the reason for United States to go after Venezuela is to cut off oil shipment to Cuba. And, and, uh, so they, they might realize, okay, China is too tough. Is too tough a nut to crack. Let's go after something smaller and more feasible for us. So, so I, so I have, um, a feeling they might go after Cuba next, you know, like, like this, because they already know, realize they cannot take on Iran. So, so that, that area, they'll probably just let it simmer, drag it out as long as possible, and then that will allow to shift their resources to, to try to do something in Cuba.

Well, Carl, very, very interesting, very informative, very constructive as always. We truly, truly appreciate you carving out time for us here, for the community. I know I miss chatting with you. I know it's been almost 2 and a half months and you've been traveling, I was traveling, and I look forward to next time to have you back here. We'll address more issues. So on behalf of the entire community, we say thank you. And by the way, community, let's help Carl cross that 100,000 subscribers, guys. We can make it. You did it for me, so we do it for Carl as well. It's only 4,000 subscribers. So let's do, uh, let me— I'm gonna put the link for you guys once again to those who might have missed it. It's in the chat box, and I'm gonna also put it on the, the bio for Carl. So, um, please just go and subscribe. I— the reason I'm saying this is because it's something you will learn I'm not saying it to be Mr. Nice, you know. Carl is a friend, but if, if it wasn't the case, I won't say so. I'm saying this because I know the benefit of his, uh, of his channel. I know the benefit of his content. So go ahead, subscribe, and, uh, and we look forward to seeing you again, Carl. Truly, truly appreciate you, man. Wish you a good Sunday, and I look forward to next time.

Much appreciated.

All right. Uh, to the community, first of all, I want to say, uh, quickly, let me see here, uh, I want to say thank you quickly to, uh, uh, Tam Putra. Thank you very much for your super sticker. Truly, truly appreciate you. You wrote, Trump dumped all the gifts that he got from Xi at the airport before departing as he is worried about wiretapping. That is an act of hostility. Yeah, that act was very weird in a sense of Uh, it's almost like, you know, when a guest give you— when your host give you a gift and you, you throw it at their faces, you know. That's not how you handle that, you know. Of course, we've been arguing here in the US that, oh, we're gonna be now afraid about the spying of, of the Chinese through buying garlic. That's how. So I'm glad you share this one, Tapocho. Thank you so much. I also take this opportunity to say thank you to Noel for getting a Super Sticker yesterday or the day before when we did live stream. Uh, it's just, uh, whatever happened last time, so I investigated and figure out what happened. So everything is back to normal now. So, so I hope you guys enjoy the rest of your evening, day, whatever part of the world you're in, and I look forward to seeing you next week. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, bye-bye.