Israel Blows Up Trump's Ceasefire Deal Hours After It Was Announced

All right, hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Mr. Trump picked up the phone, announced to the rest of the world this historical ceasefire, and before the ink was dry, Israel was already dropping bombs on Beirut. This isn't a diplomatic miscalculation. No, no, no, no, no. This is one sort of a so-called an ally telling the most powerful man on earth, as Washington calls him, your deals, your agreements do not apply to us. This is the harsh reality. And that in itself begs the question, who's in charge? Now you have 254 people killed in Beirut, Lebanon, as of yesterday. Not before the ceasefire, it was after it. Hours after Trump declared peace, a re-agreement under the Pakistani and the Chinese, uh, uh, uh, sort of, uh, uh, negotiations, Israeli missiles were tearing up through residential neighborhoods in Beirut. So you have to ask yourself, literally, you don't have to be a geopolitical analyst, common sense. You have to ask yourself, who is actually in charge of American foreign policy? Because it's clearly not the guy sitting in the White House or in the Oval Office. And that's reality of it. And so in this live stream, I'm going to just provide you my own insights, my analysis about what this all means. I know how things going to move forward now, because what you have now, you have a core issue of now the Israeli position on this, which everybody shaking their heads. How can Israel dictate the terms to the US? Because what Israel said, it says that, oh, we support the US-Iran agreement, but on the other hand, it is continuing its assault against Iranian-backed fighters in Lebanon, even though Lebanon was included in the deal. And of course, Bibi Netanyahu came later on and said, oh, oh, Lebanon is not included in the ceasefire. No, it was included. And that is, again, even the vice president, the US vice president, JD Vance, which just another bonehead anyway, You know, you don't trust any, any officials inside the US government. That, that's the bottom line. And here's what he said. Oh, by the way, this is in quote, this is legitimate misunderstanding. That's how he's wording it. He's a lawyer by trade, by the way, so he knows how to navigate the narratives to play on regarding Lebanon. And that in itself, by having the vice president who is not supposed to be the guy leading the negotiations contradicting the Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif. That just tells you where things are now. With all this happening, what is Iran's response to all this? She's straightforward. Iran, first, first of all, Iran stated straightforward that it is saying that Israel has violated the ceasefire. And authorities inside Iran, including the IRGC, including other branches, say that now Iran is suspending the tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. And by the way, it is considering pulling out of the deal with Washington over Israel's action. But at the same time, What I say to the Iranian side, you have to be realistic. Realistic about what? It's not that you can't fight. No, no, no. You have to be realistic about how much control can the US have on Israel. That is where the key question is. So, and this is again where you are seeing now activities that's going on from different locations in the region. And that is exactly where, because many observers now will tell you, literally, you don't need to be, they tell you straightforward that there need to be sort of a mechanism by which to ensure that this sort of violations should not be occurring again. But it's too late because there has been a violation already of ceasefire agreement. An Iranian response, which by the way is going to be very serious, and that is again starting with the shipments— excuse me— starting with the blockade again of the Strait of Hormuz. Then they're going to move into the next phase, and the next phase is going to be directed at Israel specifically, and not just from Iran, but from Ansarullah as well, or the Houthis. Why do I say this, you may think? It's because statements issued by both the IRGC and the Iranian Army have both some sort of, uh, unequivocally going towards this particular aspect. And this aspect is that any violation of the ceasefire, even if it does not involve targeting specific sites inside Iran but merely The intrusion of drone or drones or fighter jets into the Iranian airspace will be met with a firm and severe response. And that's again, it's the same statements issued by the Iranian foreign minister, uh, uh, which drew attention to this development. That's why, uh, uh, Abbas Erakchi, I'm sorry, that's what he said specifically when it comes down to Lebanon. And that is, again, puts now Donald Trump between two fundamental paths, literally. The first one being that he must have— he must make a choice. And second, either to return back to more war, because the choice, the first one, is he cannot control Israel. That's, that's, that's, that's forgone conclusion. And the second one, that's the only option. And that in itself leads me to talk about the trap that Trump now finds himself in. Because the only way you see it, and the way I see this playing out, and there are certain analysts and individuals with a solid background in this realm, will agree that this kind of a trap Donald Trump is in It's not easy for him to get out of it. You only have the other two options. One is to remove all your military assets from the region. Can the US do this? Because Israel will be vulnerable. Okay. Even now you have the Secretary of Defense, Pete, he's saying, oh, we're gonna have to get the uranium out of Iran. Good luck with that. First of all, to my knowledge, and I'm going to share it with you here, the— as of today, if Iran wanted to develop a really— by standards, the nuclear weapons, it can build between 10 to about 18, give or take. And this is again one thing I need you to understand as to what lies ahead moving forward. Most likely what you will be seeing is especially in light of Donald Trump's statement about wiping out the civilization. You remember that statement, which by the way, just from a legal perspective, that statement in itself could— it's not good— will, will, will, will lead the US into some legal hot seats. Why? Because that's an intention of committing genocide according to Geneva Convention. Otherwise, how are you going to wipe out civilization? It's clear indication we're talking about the nukes here. Yes, the US has that capabilities, but now what Donald Trump doesn't realize is that while there were some who might not agree with the, with the government inside Iran, now everybody is on board in support of Iran. So what Donald Trump is going to do, wipe out 93 million people? I mean, it will be shame. First of all, it ain't gonna happen, let me tell you this. But second, if that even happen, then it becomes the responsibility of countries like China, like Russia, like North Korea, like Pakistan that have nukes. I mean, France, UK, those are useless anyway. But for those countries, if they don't step in, then shame on everybody. That's how it's going to be. Because now we do have, for, for, we do have certain types of missiles. It never came up into the conversation here as far as, because there was no need for that. Uh, but those, those missiles, what I can tell you is that those missiles have heavy and higher payloads, exceeds what happened in Hiroshima. Will make what happened in Hiroshima, uh, just like child's play, even though it's devastating to begin with. And this is again where Donald Trump is finding himself in trap. And moving forward, if I am to think, now Iran has no other alternative but to move forward with the nuclear, which most likely may end up seeing within, if I am to guess, 8 months, a year You will be— some, some testing is going to be taking place, and I, I bet you it will be the support of certain countries regarding Israel. That's how I see it moving forward. And this is again, takes me back to this broader pattern as to what Israel just did. And this isn't new. It's not new. You all remember what happened during the Gaza War. Israel violated the Gaza ceasefire, at least according to the records, and I provide you a link for it, 2,073 times between October 25th, or 25, that is, and March 2026. So I'm gonna put the link for you in the chat box, and you can read that article yourself should you decide to do so. Then we'll be talking about the political dimension of all this, because there is one. Now, now, this created a very serious, awkward political dynamics for Trump, and it exposed his weakness, because Trump now is exposed as weak as, as, as, as he can get. It's not about this flexing your muscles or this, uh, uh, some sort of, uh, bullying tone of language, I'm gonna cut it. Because Israel has openly, openly humiliated Donald Trump on the world stage. At the same time, US will not be able to let Israel on its own, let Israel fight Iran. If that is what they want, then why are we doing? Why are we getting involved? And to me, the way I look at it is indeed Bibi and Netanyahu made a mockery of Donald Trump, or for the whole US government for that matter. And that in itself reflecting now the exercise that Israel is having on the American sovereignty. It's reality. Even Tucker Carlson's been talking about this regularly, and you kind of applaud the guy, uh, for what he's saying. And that's how I frame it. Now, what, what Netanyahu did by attacking Lebanon is a mockery of Donald Trump. And by the way, all this happening while Israel could not and will not defeat Hezbollah because what Hezbollah ended up doing, it has crippled Israel. Don't, don't get fooled by the, the fighter jets and the bombing and all that stuff. No, no, no. What Israel is afraid of is afraid of does not know how many types of missiles Hezbollah has in its own possession. Nobody knows. Again, back then, to— for me, there are certain, uh, sensitive channels refer to over 100,000. That's all it was back a few years ago. I mean, the number is going to change, of course. Yeah, and that becomes in itself very concerning as to where this is headed, because it shows straightforward that how Israel controls the US government, and no US president can go against it. And by the way, thank you very much for the community who participated into the survey when I asked that specific question. In your opinion, do you believe any US president, Democrats or Republicans, two faces of same coin, by the way, actually has the power to say no to Israel and means it? So 10% of you said yes, 87% of you said no, and 3% of you said don't know. And we had about 1,600 or 1,700 participants, so thank you very much for participating in this. Using history as my guide, I'll go back to Eisenhower. When Eisenhower back then ordered Israel to move out of Sinai Then you have JFK, and we all know the outcome for JFK. But any besides those two, to my knowledge, none will be able to do this. And that in itself paved the way to share with you the evidence as to what is going on. How does this control of Israel on the US government? Of course, Israel receives substantial US military and diplomatic support, including billions in annual aid that comes out of our tax dollars. The US has repeatedly used its UN Security Council veto to shield Israel from international censure. You all remember when Israel imposed starvation on the Gazans? What did the US representative— shame on her— Greenfield, representative of the US at the UN, She vetoed that. Humanity. It shows you right there the true images and true faces of the American foreign policy. Then you have the AIPAC, the American-Israeli Political Action Committee, which is a pro-Israeli lobbying group, are the most, are among the most influential in Washington. And this is why what happened yesterday, right after the ceasefire was announced and Donald Trump said to the world, we won. Of course, that he's delusional. What Israel openly defied Donald Trump, it defied him on this brokered agreement with apparent impunity. I just, that's to me raised serious legitimate questions about the US leverage over Israel. Which we don't have any because we couldn't control it. There are those who say, oh, the US and Israel relations are driven by shared strategic interest. Nonsense. It's nonsense because at the end I'm gonna play a clip for you and show you one specific thing that I'm gonna pertain to this one here. There are some presidents who have clashed with Israel, but They've been told to toe the line. That is how it works, because no American president was able to act against what has been happening. For example, the settlement expansions, the Lebanese strikes, what happened yesterday. Did Trump come forward and said, you can't do that? Because what it suggests is that Israel is an unruly ally of the US. That means it's the one that dictates American foreign policy, not the other way around. And this is why it becomes clear, if Israel wants a fight with Iran, they let it fight one-on-one. That's the main— and we all see what's going to be happening. And this is why even some, uh, uh, geopolitical analysts overseas, not even just here in, in US, and even those including in the mainstream ones, they are all coming to the consensus that they argue that US policy towards Israel suffers, and I couldn't agree more with the terminology of it, suffers from lack of conditionality. Meaning what? That the US provides support, assistance, and whatever else without demanding compliance in return. And that's, to me, highlights really, really the, the, the, the claim of the Israel's controlling US government and members of Congress, by the way, no exception. There are only one or two, to my knowledge. And that's what happened yesterday is legitimate test of these dynamics that I'm talking about. So I had a chance to write an article yesterday on, uh, on Substack. As you may know that I have a Substack account now, and I wrote about it. I'm going to share the link with you in the, uh, if you want, just sign up for it. So it's free. Anyway, I'm not gonna do this subscription for Substack, so this kind of knowledge, it's worth sharing with the community. And what I argued in that article, and I'm not going to talk too much about it, I just— there is a link for you to read it— is that the way I looked at it, literally hours after, and I said last night, uh, or the night before, I was thinking about, okay, will this ceasefire hold? And I called— I couldn't think of— just like you building a castle on sand, That's why it's unlikely this ceasefire will hold, and that is exactly where I see it. Why? Because Israel has no intentions of stopping. Well, if, if Israel has no intentions of stopping, why are we getting involved? Let them, let them go blow up, uh, uh, or, or, or, or get involved in fighting Hezbollah. Go get involved in fighting Iran, whatever, on your own. On your own. But what's very surprising is that Israel made it clearly, made its possession as clear as daylight. Because what Netanyahu said, and I quote here as I quoted in the article, you know, nothing will go— nothing will go regarding agreements without full coordination with Israel. That tells you the story right there. And again, you'll think about, uh, uh, uh, the idea of where this is going to go. What Iran's demand— even though I, I argued in that article Iran's demands are non-starter for Washington— well, it was after all Iran that proposed the 10 points, not the US. And as we speak the administration here in Washington are trying to manipulate the American people regarding this. So the way I see it moving forward from both the geopolitical and the military dimensions, the most likely near-term scenario that I see is this breakdown of the negotiations that is now under the auspices of, of Pakistan and China behind the scenes. China is behind the scenes, by the way. Where— because why? Because it's going to be followed by hostilities, as I argued in the article. I, I just see this moving forward. And again, we're gonna see what Trump is gonna do, because if he used that terminology, that is intentions, which under Geneva Conventions, that's a ground for a legal aspects of that action needs to be taken against the US. And once again, should And I'm saying, should Trump, with his— I don't know the term to use for his mental capabilities— go with that option? Because they're gonna whisper to his ears, oh, just go with it, nuke them, and we'll be done. It's gonna open up another— another— it's gonna become a different ball game altogether. And that's again where you're gonna— we're gonna have to ask the questions about the Chinese, the Russians, the North Koreans, the Pakistanis regarding nuclear capabilities. To my knowledge, Russia has moved some nuclear assets near Iran's borders for protection, and the US is really rethinking certain aspects— not everything— but is rethink— rethinking these aspects of it, of the Russians movements of the nuclear assets. And that is, again, it depends how it's going to move forward. And if we are to think in terms of just the region, what it's going to do, because you're going to have to think about the regional consequences of, uh, uh, not, not the US attack in Iran. We're talking about the resumption of the war if this ceasefire, uh, doesn't hold. Because the, the second phase of it will be severe. You're looking at a Strait of Hormuz, that will be done once again. We'll go back to square one as far as the energy prices going up, because Iran now realized, you know, control Strait of Hormuz, you bring everybody down on its knee, on their knees. Then you have the incompetent Gulf states— Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, uh, Jordan, to a degree. They have no capability whatsoever to take stand or tell the Americans or tell the Israelis you can't do this anymore. They can't. They're so weak. And once again, when I shared the clip with you uh, towards the end here, it will make more sense to you. On the global level, you're looking at the reverberations that, that, that this is gonna lead to should the ceasefire break down. Once again, energy markets, it impacts every one of us. I don't care what part of the world you live in, it will impact you one way or another because it's going to become a sustained disruption to the flow of energy. Of course, US credibility is gone anyway. We don't have any. We shouldn't even be talking about it because there is no credibility in, in US anymore. Uh, then you have to think in terms of, of, uh, of, of what other countries the likes of China will do. And we don't know. We don't know. And that's again where the, the problem that I foresee moving forward Now, one reality that you need to understand is that as of today, Iran still capable of producing about 5,200 missiles per month. We're not talking about the quantity of drones. As a matter of fact, Iran still sending drones to Russia in its ongoing conflict with Ukraine, which by the way, uh, once again, I don't know why Russians dragging that too long. But again, they have their own, they have their own strategic thinking for that. And it's going to become evident within the next few months that time to move forward with testing. And at that point, it's too late for Israel, it's too late for the US and any other countries in the region. And by the way, this leads me to just— I'm not going to detail it much because it's not the key topic that I'm talking about. It just reminds me of Turkey. We have to bring Turkey into this conversation. Why is this important? Why is this important, you may ask? The reason for Donald Trump lashing out at NATO, targeting NATO, you know, because threatened to leave NATO, which is a good riddance anyway. Our tax dollars are spent on other countries. That just doesn't make any sense. But when Donald Trump stated on, on, on the social media, oh, we're gonna have to leave NATO, you know, there is a reason behind that statement. Why? Because if the US plans to withdraw from NATO, you know why? Is to ensure that Should there be a conflict between Israel and Turkey, which is already— there are some tensions behind the scenes. I, I never spoke of it because maybe I'll do a live stream about it in, in, in soon. Just leave it at that. Because the Turkey-Israeli conflict, especially in Syria, it's raging. Behind the scenes. So by the US leaving NATO, because Turkey is a NATO member, by US leaving NATO, now Washington can comfortably, and I use the term carefully, comfortably side with Israel against its NATO ally Turkey. This is something you need just to think about, food for thoughts, crossed my mind, I was thinking about it, and I wanted to let you know about it. So I'm gonna play the clip I told you earlier because I need you to really see the possession— oh, sorry, to see the really the possession of the pathetic Arab and Gulf states. Simple as that. It's the truth. I know some might not like the terminology that I use, but it's reality. You can't sugarcoat it. So basically what's written there in Arabic, it's straightforward, it's short. There is— hold on a second. Yeah. There is no longer merely a slip of the tongue or a hasty statement. Rather, it represents a distinct pattern in the US administration's dealing with its Arab allies, characterized by mockery, sarcasm, and ultimately brazen demand to foot the bill. During the Saudi-funded Future Investment Initiative Forum, President Trump stood before the audience and unleashed a torrent of crude, crude remarks regarding the Saudi Crown Prince, MBS. Despite all this disdain, the White House spokesperson, uh, Levitt, stepped forward to suggest that it will be the Arab allies who will ultimately pay the cost of the war. Furthermore, since the very outset of the conflict, during his initial press briefings, Brad— uh, Brad— uh, Brad Bear has lashed out at America's Gulf allies while simultaneously lauding Israel. The portrayal of the Arab is that of a resource to be drained their wealth siphoned off, and their lands utilized, only to then be ordered to fight in America's wars. In return, they will receive no protection for their own territories but face instead an endless stream of demands to pay yet more billions and trillions. That is the harsh reality that the— about how we, when I say we, government along with Israel viewing the Arab— Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Jordan, and Egypt to a degree. There is now also tensions between Egypt and Israel, believe it or not. If there is one fear Israel has, is about the— from the Egyptian military. Not because, uh, it's just Egyptian military far stronger than other Gulf states and so forth, but nothing compared to the Iranians, by the way. And once again, it gives you an idea as to really where things are. This is why the Arab Gulf states, as of today, none of them had the guts to step forward instead of being the one pushing for peace is Pakistan that stepped forward, along with China behind the scenes. You can't count on the Gulf States for this, I'm here to tell you. So here's my conclusion, because I want to keep this short, uh, um, brief this time around, because I got some other, uh, obligations I have to attend to. So one of the most significant— now, most significant diplomatic days, at least in my lifetime, that I've witnessed. That's when Donald Trump saying, oh, we've reached a ceasefire that could pull the Middle East back from the brink. But at the same time, Israel made a decision without consulting with Washington. It doesn't care to consult with Washington, and Washington will obey what Israel's decision will be or is. And this decision A very public one, very deliberate decisions. What is that? To continue bombing Lebanon, killing 254, if not more, civilians in Beirut, while at the same time the world was still celebrating the news of this fragile peace. No consequences, no red line crossed, no angry phone calls that changed anything on the ground. That's the harsh reality. And this, by the way, isn't the first time. Like I mentioned earlier, you think about the settlement expansions to Gaza, and now it's moving to Lebanon. Israel has repeatedly acted against the stated preferences of its most powerful ally. And yet the aid that we— money we sending keep flowing. Did you guys know that in Israel they have free healthcare, free education, even lodging stipends from the government? Where is all that money coming from, do you think? Is the American taxpayers. And if this is not enough, the US is using, using a veto within the UN Security Council. They're gonna be keep coming. Anyway, an American president, they keep smiling at the cameras. That's exactly what Trump portrayed as far as where the American, uh, uh, the, the American presidents— useless, powerless. It's just the way, the way it works. And that is again where things are. And that leads me to really critical questions, especially for my fellow Americans watching this. Are we a sovereign nation? You know, I did say it a couple times, and I don't, I don't, I don't shy away from saying certain things. I did say on the record when I categorized South Korea not as sovereign— sovereign on paper— when I categorized Japan not as sovereign only on paper. Australia, Philippines, Germany, what have you. Now I find myself saying the same about my own country. Are we sovereign or is it just on papers? Are we the ATM with the military attached that can be ignored the moment our interests don't perfectly align with Tel Aviv? And once again, those are legitimate questions any decent person with some knowledge about this kind of, uh, field or domain will be asking. So here's the question for you after what you shared with you. I know I shared it on a limited basis here, and like I mentioned earlier, how do you see this moving forward? Will the US ever take stand and say to Israel, enough is enough? Can they say no to Israel? Or is this, in your opinion, this relationship is embedded in American politics that real accountability is simply impossible? So I'd like you to share your thoughts with me. If you get a chance to do so. I would greatly, greatly appreciate it. So anyway, that's all I have to share with you. Please, please make sure to subscribe if this is your first time here. I will greatly appreciate your support, and I look forward to seeing you in a few days. Let me, let me, by the way, let me share just the link for the channel should you decide to. And remember to read that article I posted on Substack. Uh, because as I said, I, I've been writing, uh, sometimes on, uh, on, on Substack. Here is, here is the link for it, Substack, if you are interested in reading. Once a week I write an article, just my own analysis, how I see the developments— excuse me— moving forward. Uh, what I'm gonna be talking about next, I don't know yet, because one thing that I am keeping an eye on is the Russia President Vladimir Putin's statements. Uh, that is, to me, uh, it's a hint for what lies ahead. Could it be the reason why Russia moved, moved forward with deploying the nuclear submarines, uh, into the— protect Iran? Because they know the US might move into this direction. I don't know, I don't know yet, but I'm going to keep an eye open on it. Anyway, I hope you enjoyed listening to this, and I look forward to seeing you next time. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, bye-bye.