In this Geopolitical Trends video, host David Oualaalou provides a critical analysis of French President Emmanuel Macron’s state visit to Washington, D.C., arguing that the official narrative of Franco‑American unity is largely a façade. He outlines the lingering diplomatic fallout from the 2021 AUKUS submarine deal, which France called a "stab in the back" and led to temporary ambassador withdrawals, and suggests the visit is an attempt to repair that rift. Oualaalou highlights the economic stakes for Europe, focusing on the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act’s massive subsidies that threaten European manufacturers, and the broader European energy crisis exacerbated by Russia’s war in Ukraine and the failure of an EU price‑cap on Russian oil. He points out France’s waning influence in Africa, noting recent troop withdrawals and language shifts toward English, and speculates that Macron may seek U.S. support to counter this decline. The video also examines intra‑European dynamics, especially Germany’s pivot toward China and the divergent approaches of French and German leadership, which place Macron in a delicate balancing act between a hard‑line U.S. stance on China and German economic interests. Oualaalou argues the visit serves domestic political purposes, allowing Macron to showcase a historic alliance to a French audience despite the high cost of state dinners amid public hardship. He concludes by questioning whether Macron will return “empty‑handed,” suggesting possible outcomes such as revised sanctions on Russia or new energy agreements, and invites viewers to share their thoughts.
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Hello everyone and welcome to Geopolitical Trends. My name is David Oualaalou. So good to be with you. French President Emmanuel Macron is in Washington, D.C. for an official state visit. In this video, I am going to provide you an analysis as to what the visit means within the global context. But before I'll delve deeper into this, I want to remind you about the upcoming live stream on December 3rd at 12 PM, 6 PM GMT time. So I hope you can join me live if you can make— if your schedule permits. But also remember to subscribe and hit this notification button so you will be notified every time I upload a new video. And I can't thank you enough for for your support. Let's dive in into this. Well, actually, the French President Emmanuel Macron arrived already, is in Washington. So his trip, which will be an official one, makes you just wonder why at this time. So, and this is of course based on what the France authorities, sort of a spokesperson for the president, saying that This is not just about a trip. It's a show of a Franco-American unity or European unity. Yeah, nonsense. We have heard that before because this is what they want to show, that Europe, the transatlantic relations, the US and Europe, they are united over this Ukraine issue. But it's nonsense. I'm here to tell you it's nonsense, and I'm gonna tell you why. Why that is. So the focus, of course, according to what they are stating from the, uh, the president's office in France, is that the visit, the focus of it, will not be on just leadership but rather partnership. Yeah, because the French are saying that they're gonna be during this Emmanuel Macron official visit tomorrow, it's gonna be advocating for Franco-German projects and European interests as well. You all know what are they referring to here. Basically what they're referring to is that the Europeans are realizing that the Americans are making more money on the Ukraine crisis than the European. I know it's not a laughing matter because there are European citizens that are now cannot afford to heat up their homes. With the inflation skyrocketing, they can't afford to buy groceries and food and whatever. So the situation is not as simple as many have think, or as even the Western media is portraying to be. Yes, there is some sort of inflation, whatever. No, it's hitting people very hard economically. But there is also another aspect to this trip. You all remember what happened a year ago. And I'm gonna remind you about the submarine deal. Of course, Emmanuel Macron's trip, sort of the French are hoping it will close an unpleasant chapter of the so-called— you all remember— AUKUS deal, okay? Even though that doesn't mean that the episode will be completely forgotten. I won't forget it if I were the French president. No, no. But because it was perceived by some, and actually I'm gonna quote the former foreign French minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, and he called the deal, and I put this in quote, a stab in the back. And it was, and it was. And based on that, France temporarily withdrew its ambassadors from both Washington and Canberra, you know. But again, now you're seeing France bowing back to the US pressure. Again, it's not a laughing matter because I've always believed that Europeans cannot stand on their feet. Europe does not have a standalone foreign policy. Europe does not have a standalone security force. Europe will always be at the mercy of the defense of the US. Let's just say it's straightforward here. So, so for various reasons, you know, cooperation and coordination haven't gone as far as one might have imagined between France and the US. So basically, because this deal, the AUKUS deal, that really was a stab in the back for France, the tone between Paris and Washington, DC has calmed down since it's been a year now since the US snatched that lucrative deal of the contracts to supply Australia with the submarine from under French noses. Yeah, it's a— and of course what followed after that is that the US launched what's called the new US, UK, and Australia alliance known in the Pacific named AUKUS. That excluded France. The deal, of course, was $66 billion at stake for the submarine that French lost to the Americans, you know. So the thing is, now the trip— and this is my own analysis which I will share with you— the trip will serve for domestic audience in France. Why? Because Emmanuel Macron will be able to say to French people when he goes back is like, hey, look, I am visiting our American's oldest ally. Okay, and why they use the term oldest ally? This refers to the tie that goes way back when Napoleon Bonaparte sold the future state of Louisiana to Washington in 1803. That's basically what it is. But despite all this, you know, they, France and the United States, are not on the same page, you know, because as things stand today, the allies, so-called allies, are not on the same page, no matter what you hear. So that becomes the question, is what is the purpose of the trip? You know, is Macron coming all the way to the US to tell President Biden, hey guys, you need to stop making money at our expense? Because that's what it is, because Europe is buying gas from different sources at 3, 5, or even 10 times the amount. I, I disclosed in one of the videos that even China now is selling gas to Europe. Well, you can only guess the price, and rightly so. China is not going to sell it for a discount, and they shouldn't. It's a business decision. So, so as Macron, he's here already in Washington, uh, he's gonna be going to I gotta look at the agenda, his trip agenda. I have my own sources, per se, and it will be like sort of the first state visit since Biden took office here. So, but you can only imagine what will be the main focus is the Russia's military operations in Ukraine. So this will be a far cry from where their relationship there, I mean in France and America, stood around this last year. Because last year, as I said, France withdrew ambassadors from Australia and the US, you know. And again, because France lost a $66 billion submarine deal contract because the US took it from the, from the French. It wasn't a smart move, but it's a business decision. So it's— I, yeah, I, I kind of didn't understand why the US will do that. But Australia also, of course, had no say into that. Well, Australia doesn't have a say anyway. Australia has to bow to what its master's saying. Basically, when the United States to Australia, just drop France and go with us. Of course, Australia bowed and said, yes sir. But here's the thing, the elephant in the Oval Office, shall we say, tomorrow on Thursday, which will be today by the time you watch this video, it has to do with the US Inflation Reduction Act, known as IRA, Inflation Reduction Act. Well, basically what it is, is that Europeans say They're saying that the massive subsidy package that the Biden administration is providing to US manufacturers could deal a very big blow to, to the European industries, which are already reeling from the high energy costs. Remember, in one of these videos I mentioned to you that by the end of the year you're going to see some German companies shutting down, some French companies shutting down. Some other EU members shutting down. So, and this is what the meeting is going to be part about, uh, uh, tomorrow— today by the time you're watching this video here. So, and the agenda, as I mentioned earlier, basically will be dominated by, of course, the military operations in Ukraine. And guess what else? China's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Why will they care about the Indo-Pacific when there are energy issues in Europe? Why will they care about far land when there are inflation issues that the citizens in Europe and here in the US are, are struggling with? It just makes you wonder about where the priorities are. So there is also one, one possibility is that the French president Emmanuel Macron will also try to steer the conversation towards how the European economy has been upended by the Russian military operations in Ukraine, basically because lack of energy. You know, as I said last time, I had an interview today with some entity in Washington, DC, and the word I was asked, or the question I was asked about, is What about the European Union price cap on Russian oil, which has failed anyway because within the EU there is no agreement on it? Some countries will say no. I can just see, for example, Italy saying no. I can see Hungary saying no. I can see Bulgaria saying no. Agrees to a degree, you know, they kind of like, no, doesn't make any sense. So So Macron basically, and I'm not gonna be talking too much about his agenda because literally who cares about if he's going to visit NASA? Who cares about that? He's going to visit NASA. Actually, he's in NASA today and tomorrow he will be in the White House for the official dinner, which by the way, we are paying for that dinner. Why would we care about a state dinner? Because that costs arms and legs. When people are struggling and we are conducting a state dinner on behalf of a president? Who cares? Really, who cares? I mean, so I just, you know, I don't get it. I really don't get it. Because at the same time, it's the government. What do you expect? It's not their money. They can just waste whatever. Why will they care? So, but it is another thing that I believe French President wants to talk to President Biden directly about, and that has to do with Africa, believe it or not. Why is this, you may ask? It's because France is losing— France has already lost Africa. It's not the main influencer anymore. You know, Mali kicked French troops from their country. Morocco and Algeria are switching from French language into English. You know, there is already a competition, fierce competition between the United States and Russia and China near the Red Sea. So Ghana, you take a country like Ghana, just last week announced now that they're going to be using gold when it comes down to the oil transactions. Angola, with the discovery of gold, you know, Nigeria with the exporting of oil and cementing ties with China. So you can just see France is kind of losing its influence in Africa. Could it be that the possibility that Emmanuel Macron might ask for support from the United States in Africa? Possibly, possibly not, no. But here is my conclusion to you about all this, just to put it in perspective before you read some headlines or look on TV for what, what the news channels will, will state, whatever that might be. So, so Macron will have to perform— it is my opinion— Macron will have to perform a balance act. And balance act regarding what? Not the United States, not the Atlantic relations, but rather about the Indo-Pacific region. Why is this? It's because Germany is already shifting towards China. You look at BMW, for example, German company shifted its operations to China. You know, he will have to walk— he, Emmanuel Macron, will have to walk a fine line between being the, the tough American approach, okay, especially, especially, especially, especially when it comes to China. And Germany's more economically oriented view. Why? Because you'll remember the trip of the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to Germany. He went alone. Macron wants to go with him, and Olaf said, no, I'm going alone. Why? Because he wants to advocate for the German industries. So France felt that it's gonna be left behind, and it will be left behind. So, and that's why I said even the German Chancellor received a harsh criticism for that trip. You know, he didn't care because he looked out after the interest of the German industry, because France would wanted to sort of go along with the German Chancellor to travel to Beijing together, Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron. But it didn't happen. It didn't happen. And yet, to a certain extent, Germany's economy's interest in Asia needs to be taken into account when Macron discusses whatever he's going to be discussing with the, uh, with President Biden. Macron will also need to make sure, given the stance of the US towards China Macron will have to show that he understands China cannot just be seen as an adversary, because France will also have an interest in maintaining a balance with China, you know. Otherwise, that might bring a new discord into the Franco-German relations, because usually when you think about the European Union, who do you think about? France and Germany. That's about it. It's not that the other countries don't matter, but you know, what would you think about Greece is gonna do? Bulgaria, what they're gonna do? Romania, what they're gonna do? Their economies are not where they need to be as far as being, uh, have a seat at the table. It's France and Germany. So, and the question will become now, what will happen if Biden doesn't agree to whatever Macron is saying? Could it be the possibility that he goes back— Macron, that is— goes back to Europe and said, you know what, maybe we need to reconsider certain sanctions on Russia and make some alternative to allowing some gas? I won't be surprised. Of course, that's not gonna sit well with Washington, but as you may know, Europe is like a child. That it is always in constant need of direction and discipline from the master. You get my point. So this is what I see it going. France cannot do anything on its own. As I said, it doesn't have a standalone foreign policy. So the visit, basically, I don't know what he's gonna accomplish, literally. Well, we shall see. So, but here's my question for you for today: will Emmanuel Macron return to France or Europe, that is, empty-handed? I repeat, will Emmanuel Macron return to France or Europe empty-handed? Let me know what you think. And as always, remember, geopolitics impact your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, guys. Bye-bye.
