New Supreme Leader, New War Strategy! Inside Iran's Next Move...

Hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. He watched a strike that killed his father. He took power the next day and hasn't been seen in public ever since, but he just gave his military one chilling order, sort of be ready. And this is why you have the US and Israel who thought they have crippled Iran. Only 2 months later, Iran's military is telling its new Supreme Leader Ali— uh, new Supreme Leader, uh, Khamenei, that it has the weapons, it has the plan, and the will to strike back.

And this is exactly what the media is not telling you or wants you to know.

That's by design.

And that's what I intend to uncover in this brief— in this analysis and live stream here. And that's what I'm going to be doing for you this time around. So, so stick with me till the end because we got a long one here, because I have to confirm few things for you and so forth, and we go from there.

So here is what happened. You have now Iran's new Supreme Leader, Moushtaba Khamenei. Let me put a picture of him so you'll see, who has just met with the commander of Iran's most powerful military headquarters.

Okay, this is the picture of the commander right there.

They just met.

And by the way, this meeting just took place after the, uh, uh, after the president, uh, of Iran, Raisi, also met with, uh, the Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei.

What's interesting is that there have been the issuance of a new directive to confront—

and I put this in quote—

to confront the enemy, in reference to the US and Israel. You know, at the same time, what happened is that Mujtaba Khamenei, the new Supreme Leader of Iran, received a comprehensive briefing of the offensive and defensive readiness of Iran Armed Forces. So it wasn't just meaning to have a tea, it was about for the military to get the new orders, which new orders have been issued, and also to provide him, meaning Mostaba Khamenei, with a comprehensive briefing as to where things are. So despite the speculations about his health and the near total absence from public view since taking power in March, Iran has demonstrated now remarkable— not about the military, not about all that, it's about the institutional resilience.

That means the government still functioning.

So I know some have said, oh, uh, Mousavi is dead and all that. I don't think so.

I don't think so.

And those two meetings just prove it.

And I'm— we're going to continue, uh, with this and you'll make more sense out of it.

So what is the significance of this? Well, here is the thing. When you think about Mujtaba'a Khamenei's conspicuous, if I may use the term, absence from public, uh, view, of course he has not been seen since his appointment in early March. And of course since his appointment he has appeared only to release written statements. And that in itself is a complete stark contrast to the frequent public appearances made by his late father. And this is why some reports indicated that Mojtaba has been wounded during strikes on the first day, on the first day of the war, which is true.

That—

but that is why the Iranian authorities have provided limited information about his conditions. So to my knowledge, based on what I read, sort of the aspects that got declassified, it's, uh, two injuries, one on his knee and one in his back, major ones.

That's why couldn't walk, couldn't move around, and needed— that's so far what I've, what I've, uh, what I found out.

So, so here is now where you think about the narrative of control being constructed.

And like I said, this is not just a war about military, but is also about information.

When you think about this, Iran will have to— Iran government at large in general will have to go this route because you're going to have the Iranian state-linked media that repeatedly emphasizing that Mojtaba Khamenei has received a military briefing, and he did. He has also issued new directives And he did and continued to oversee the strategic decisions. But also there is another objective to all this, and that objective is, is that the apparent objective is to project continuity within the government.

That's one.

Second is control. Who's in charge here? That because the West is saying, oh, the government is paralyzed in Iran. No, it's not. It might be decentralized, but it's not paralyzed. And the third one is that, that the leadership at the top of Iran, uh, system still exists. And this is where I, uh, as I believe, and I confirmed it, is that this meeting that took place between, uh, Mujtaba'a and the top commander general of the, uh, military headquarters came after Mujtaba'a Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, met with the President Brzezinski. That's been confirmed because it came the statement only days ago that he had personally met with Mujtaba. That's what President Bishkek has said. And this one, when you think about it from a political perspective, is that the statements in itself could be widely interpreted as an attempt to sort of counter the arguments about Khamenei's conditions or lack of visibility.

That's probably a part of it, of into that.

Then you start to think about during this time of meeting, you have the escalatory language during active diplomacy. And I'm gonna play a clip for you. It's a long one. I did the translation myself, went through it, because it will make sense to you once you, you, you listen to this translation here. And I'll show you the clips or the, the, the footage of it, it'll make sense to you why he had to meet with this, the, the general of the military, and why he, meaning Mujtaba'a, issued new directives. So when you think about this escalatory language during active diplomacy, you have the fresh directives that is now coming, ordered the continuation of Operation against the US. That is the key. It didn't ask for just, oh, let's continue negotiations and all that stuff. Maybe that's on a separate track. What the fresh directive orders are is the continuation of the operations against the US. And yet this comes during a delicate moment because you have the indirect negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Which I will share with you later on as to the response of Iran to the US proposals. As a matter of fact, next time I'll do a separate video, uh, about it. But for now, I'm going to share it with you briefly there. So you have that one, one. And because these negotiations, uh, are being mediated, uh, including— through mediators rather, including Qatar, including Pakistan, including Turkey, including Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. And all of this aimed at one objective.

One is to prevent renewed escalation across the region.

And here is what most people do not know. What they do not know is that no one outside the closed circles—

and I don't claim to know, by the way, let me just put that on a record—

I'm, I'm like some other analysts that we couldn't you will— there is no way you will figure that out. You have to be inside. No one outside of this closed circle knows whether Mujtaba is injured or even dead.

Well, the dead part has been sort of resolved. In other words, the question about it, you know.

And all this comes against the backdrop of the sequence of carefully publicized meetings increasingly appears designed to communicate a single message. And you know what that single message is?

That single message is, is that Mojtaba Khamenei is alive, engaged, and firmly in command of the government. That is, that is the message that he's sending here.

So when you think about the significance of this, it's twofold. One is the content of it. You have the military directives now aimed ongoing nuclear and ceasefire talks. And number two is the context. You have the content and you have the context. And the context of it is that Iran's leadership is visibly trying to signal stability and command authority at a time when serious doubts persist about the Supreme Leader's actual conditions and grip on power.

So these two have been sort of resolved, these two.

So whether this reflects the genuine strategic direction or is largely a propaganda exercise to project strength Besides all this, it remains an open and critical question, and I'm not denying that one. So, and this is again when you have to understand this, the event as they happen. So, so I'm gonna share a clip with you once again.

I did before, it's just to put it in perspective for you as to where things are.

You remember last time when I shared this particular Uh, let me see here. Uh, when I shared with you a clip last time yesterday about the, uh, the fuselage of the MQ-9 where the reservoir has been shut down, so today I'm gonna provide the footage, not just a clip, a long one, and I did the translation to put it in perspective for you. So let's take a look.

You take a look. I'm gonna translate for you. Let me share the screen here for you, then we'll just go from there.

So I'm not gonna play in full the whole hour of that.

I'm gonna be playing only a little bit, but I need you to listen to what it has said.

So here is what it says: The United States has violated Iranian airspace using highly dangerous aircraft. Despite the existing truce and ceasefire between Washington and Tehran. This fact has become evident through reports published by numerous Iranian and international sources which have unequivocally confirmed that breach of Iranian airspace did indeed take place over the past two days. It's now three days by now, or, or even four. We have been confronted with local Iranian, uh, uh, reports describing explosions on Kishm Island. Yesterday, the Iranian regime or government even leaked information indicating that its air defense systems were engaged with drones that had penetrated Iranian airspace, specifically over Kishm Island. This brings us to this morning when the Fars News Agency, along with other Iranian agencies, published this image. The photograph clearly depicts a component of what appears to be a fragment of an aircraft that Iranian defenses successfully shut down.

And that's exactly the clip I play— played for you. This is to confirm it.

Upon closer inspection, it becomes apparent that this component is an external fuel tank, a type typically mounted on aircraft. It matches with absolute precision the external fuel tanks specifically designed for and carried by one of the most formidable American drones, the MQ-9 Reaper. This drone routinely carries this specific type of fuel tanks, a capability that significantly extends its flight endurance, allowing it to remain airborne for hours beyond its, its standard operation limits. This highly critical aircraft is colloquially known as the Reaper or the Harvester of Souls, as it is frequently deployed to carry out targeted assassinations of high-ranking officials in order to achieve strategic objectives, whether long-term or short-term in nature. Naturally, the Iranian side has accelerated or I'm sorry, celebrated the downing of this drone. Supporters of the Iran government have hailed the incident as proof that they remain fully capable of countering such unmanned aerial vehicles. Furthermore, the very presence of this specific drone in this, in this particular region, and the fact that it arrived here penetrating Kishm Island and heading towards the Iranian coast is an extremely dangerous undertaking. While it is true that this aircraft is utilized for reconnaissance missions, the United States possesses sufficient fleet of reconnaissance aircraft capable of conducting such operations as far and more advanced level than the MQ-9 Reaper. The aircraft in question and its presence here poses a significant threat and indicates that the United States is preparing for operations that could target key field commanders of the, of the IRGC. It has become evident that the field commanders of both the IRGC and the Iranian Navy constitute the operational core responsible for any potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, A clear decentralization of command has been apparent since the outset, specifically since the previous conflict we witnessed, which lasted approximately 39 days. During that time, it became clear that the Navy, specifically a key IRGC command element, operates to close this strait autonomously without the need to refer back to Tehran or any higher command authority. Naturally, this situation places the Iranian side in grave danger, as US Marine Expeditionary Units such as those aboard the USS Tripoli and USS Boxer are deployed throughout the region and could be positioned in a very close proximity to this area. We must also not overlook the US aircraft carrier and destroyer deployed across this zone, specifically at the blockade point, which are poised to enforce the naval blockade over the region. Consequently, one of the standard measure the US side will likely employ to gain control of the Strait of Hormuz is to strike key field commanders. This aim to inflict maximum disruption and damage upon the enemy's command and control structures, thereby facilitating a direct advance to seize control of the strait. This confirmed that the United States is in fact making concrete field and military preparation to advance towards the Strait of Hormuz should negotiations between the US and Iran ultimately fail. We are currently awaiting a response from Iran to the United States today, which by the way I will provide you the answer, and a corresponding reaction from the US side to gain clearer understanding of how events might unfold. It is evident that from the military standpoint of view, the United States is awaiting orders from Trump to initiate an advance towards the Strait of Hormuz, a fact made abundantly clear by the coordinates and the updated satellite imagery released yesterday. This pertains to one of America's vessels, specifically identified as belonging to the Independence class. This class is specifically primarily as a naval, uh, minesweeper tasked with clearing mines, uh, while also conducting a variety of other operations. The vessel appeared in this configuration yesterday in the The timestamp data confirmed its presence at this specific location yesterday, situated approximately 63 to 64 miles off the Iranian coast. According to many analysts who successfully identified all these missiles and mapped their deployment, the Independence-class ship in question is positioned here within this zone, situated behind the blockade line Additionally, another American naval minesweeper is stationed just beyond the blockade line, as is visible here, oriented towards the coast of Oman. You will also observe the presence of a destroyer in this area, providing protective cover for the USS New Orleans, a vessel belonging to the US TRIPLE group and carrying US Marine Corps infantry. As well as for the US aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln. This layout clearly demonstrates that should the United States decide to advance, a highly logical strategic move, minesweepers will spearhead the operation from two distinct directions. Their objective would be to neutralize any potential threat that could impede the forward movements of these vessels. Thereby enabling them to ultimately secure control of the Strait of Hormuz. Naturally, this would be accompanied by the deployment of strategic bombers, multiple rocket launcher systems, MQ-9 Reaper drones, and other combat aircraft, all capable of neutralizing existing defensive fortifications, key leadership figures, command and control centers, and communication hub. The— all these critical targets could be struck simultaneously, enabling the US, in conjunction with airborne forces and special operation units, to achieve significant operational success in this region. Such an outcome would strip Iran of its most vital leverage, its primary bargaining chip in any negotiations with the US, rendering Iran strategically valueless should it lose control over the Strait of Hormuz specifically lies at the very heart of the negotiations we are witnessing. However, returning to the drone recently shot down by Iran, this represents a loss of approximately $35 million. Once again, this incident demonstrates that Iran still possesses the necessary systems to bring down such unmanned aerial vehicles. Moreover, the downing of this specific type of drone follows the release of intelligence report published, uh, in Washington at the onset of the truce between US and Iran, indicating that weapons are being shipped directly from China to Iran.

The discussion here centers on it.

It was indicated that China is— has indeed supplied weapons to Iran and that the US is aware of the locations of these arm caches. The US possesses the capability to destroy these weapons in a single strike. However, reports indicate at the time revealed that a significant portion of the arms supplied by China consisted of MANPADS, shoulder-launched missile systems designed to target drones, helicopters, and combat aircraft, particularly those flying at a low altitude. These systems are highly effective and capable of achieving their intended objective with precision. It is abundant clear that the Iranian side has achieved a significant advancement in its ability to intercept US drones. We are currently witnessing critical development involving the MQ-4C Triton, a highly sophisticated recon aircraft that serves as a vital role for the US in coastal surveillance and amphibious operations. By mid-'24, the unit cost of this aircraft has surged by 117%, bringing the price of a single airframe to $618 million. Furthermore, a series of mysterious incidents have recently befallen this aircraft. Events of nature we are unaccustomed to seeing associated with this platform. Just to continue briefly here, coinciding with this resumption of the informal truce between Washington and Tehran, the aircraft was conducting intelligence gathering operations over the Strait of Hormuz when suddenly it suffered critical malfunction and crashed in the middle of the Arabian Gulf, which was—

or the Persian Gulf, which was on the, on the 9th of April and the 27th.

So I'm gonna stop right here because it's, it's, it's a little bit long, but I want you to know I did the translation myself to make sure. I didn't translate the entire footage, just this part. And, and he continued on, on, on documenting that the aircraft, this, this, uh, uh, Triton, suddenly experienced technical failures as a specific location.

There's specific location where this aircraft, uh, uh, uh, experienced this malfunctions, and this is due to the Chinese providing some advanced systems into all this.

So that is what I wanted to at least share that with you, and I'll continue with my own analysis. Now the question that we had to ask: was there a plan presented by— presented sort of to the Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, to counter hostile acts by the US and Israel. And that is the reason why I wanted to play the clip, is because the meeting happened just after this incident took place. And it confirmed, by the way, this takes me back 3 days ago when I did the video for you, and then I said I will confirm from different sources that Iran did shut down one of the US aircraft. Of course, the Pentagon and the Central Command saying no US, uh, assets were struck, which is not true because we have the proof of it. And that leads me to this question: whether a plan has been presented to Mujtaba al-Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, by the, uh, the Iranian military command. And the answer is yes, because This one, the details of this plan now emerged, paint now a fairly clear operational picture. Of course, the specifics of it will not be disclosed, and they will deliberately remain vague. That's part of the OPSEC, operational security part of it. So, and here is where the issue is, and not the issue, rather what, what's presented to the, to Khamenei. Abdullahi— this is the commander by the, by the name Ali Abdullahi, is a brigadier, I believe brigadier general.

Uh, his name is, uh, uh, Abdullahi Ali Badi, just to get it right here.

He pointed to the outstanding, outstanding defensive and offensive readiness of the Iranian military. This is why there is this exchange of of fire between the US and, and Iran. So he also presented Moushtaba Khamenei with a strategic plan, provided the information about what type of weapons they have, what type of equipment necessary to fight the US. And he reassured the Supreme Leader of quick and painful, in quotes by the way, military response to any aggression by the enemy.

They left that vague, whether the US or Israel, but we all know it's referring to the US and Israel.

And by the way, this wasn't just referenced by Iran, it was referenced by international sources as well. So during the meeting, Abdullahi reportedly received new guidance measures. This is in return what Mujtaba Khamenei told the commander to do. So it gave him guidelines. So, and what those guidelines aimed at? They aimed at advancing military operations and strengthening Iran's response strategy against the US. But for the Strait of Hormuz, it remain as a pressure tool.

There is no ifs and buts regarding that.

And this is where you have the broader strategy at play. And why is this important for you to understand? Because you have another senior Iranian military who has warned countries that enforcing sanctions on Iran, they will face serious problems. It's not a threat, it's just a warning. And the way he warned those countries is that their vessels when they pass through the Strait of Hormuz, they're gonna encounter some serious problems. And this brigadier general, his name is Amir Arkhameneiani.

Let me put a picture of him. I got a picture, uh, Amir, uh, not this one.

I thought I had a picture.

Sorry guys, my apologies. I, I, uh, I thought I had the picture of the, the Brigadier General Amir, uh, Arkhami—

Arkhaminia. And he stated, and I quote, from now on, countries that follow the United States in enforcing sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran will certainly face problems passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

End of quote.

He left it open, which means that's a message to United Arab Emirates, to Qatar, to Saudi Arabia, to Bahrain, to Kuwait, to Iraq, which by the way, Iraq new minister was appointed by the US. I'll tell you this straightforward, behind closed doors we play a role into that because he's going to do the bidding. That's part of how it works. So all this happening while the US intelligence assessments, uh, suggest that Khamenei, Mujtaba Dariz, is playing a critical role in shaping the war strategy. This is the US own intelligence assessment. So he's not out of the picture, he's still involved in, uh— oh, oh, sorry guys, I got the picture of that commander, uh, Brigadier General Amir Arkaniya.

That's right here. I had it somewhere, I couldn't see it earlier, but that's what it is.

So even the US, as I said, the US, uh, uh, uh, intelligence community, which usually is CIA, uh, they are now assessing that, uh, Mojtaba Khamenei is playing critical role in shaping the war strategy alongside senior Iranian officials. Even the report found out that a precise authority, precise authority within— now, even though I disagree with this terminology, but it has to be worded in the report that way— they're using the term fractured regime. I don't know, what do you think? Do you think that Iran's government is fractured? Just, just share your answer in the chat box with the community.

I would greatly appreciate it.

However, it remains unclear based on these assessments by the US intelligence. But one thing for sure is that Mojtaba Khamenei is likely helping direct how Iran is managing negotiations with the US and providing military directives.

That's the way I see it.

So when you put this within the broader context, in retaliation to the US and Israeli attacks, this is where Of course, we, we're going back a few weeks ago when Iran launched this, uh, Operation True Promise 4. And because as the war continue now more than 2 months already, Iran has yet to issue an official position on the memorandum of understanding proposal by the United States to end the conflict. That's why I'm saying I might do a separate video for you about this because there is a lot to cover. But I am going to share basics of it because Iran responded this morning rejecting Donald Trump, uh, proposal. And Donald Trump is pissed. It's like, who gives a damn whether Donald Trump is pissed or not? He doesn't like it. Well, what does he think, Iran's gonna bow?

No.

So because what the US is asking is beyond The, uh, the plan so far as publicly described is layered deterrence and retaliation posturing. So because what you have, you have strategic readiness across all branches of Iran's military. You have the Strait of Hormuz economic pressure campaign still going on, and you have another declaration by Iran is that they declared commitment to rapid escalation if attacked again. What remains unknown, however, is whether there are specific offensive operation plans beyond the deterrence. Of course, we won't know. We will not know. This falls under OPSEC. You can't disclose what your operation is going to be. We can also suggest that, think about what remain, uh, sort of, uh, unknown is whether Iran is deliberately staying ambiguous to maintain negotiating leverage while talks through Qatar, Pakistan, and other continue. And I see the logic of this. That's the way I see it. What do you think? If the truth matters to you, Hit like, subscribe, and tap that bell. No spin, no agenda, just the stories they don't want you to know. Don't watch from the sideline, be part of the movement.

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Thank you. Now the next question we have to ask is, what can we conclude from all this? What is Iran signaling? What is Iran's message? And the first thing that comes to mind is the strength from whatever position you might consider. Some will say in the West, oh, it's strength from a position of weakness. But how can you suggest what the US is saying, that, oh, we want peace through strength? That just doesn't make sense. So, so far, Iran is not falling, still fighting back. It's not caving in, it's not surrendering, it's not waving the white flag, and Donald Trump's proposals are being rejected. So where they gets very, very questionable by some, not all, is that the absence of the Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. And I can see the logic of that, logic of the arguments for it. So because its most telling detail is what is this absence? No photos, no videos, no public appearances, uh, from Mojtaba Khamenei since March. But it depends, maybe all this meeting's been taken behind closed doors. I know based on the, uh, resources that I found out and talked to and all that, that he was injured. Well, of course it's going to take weeks to recover.

You know, you don't expect when you get injured with a shrapnel or bomb, whatever, that you survived and you're going to be back to work the next day.

Doesn't work. But while there is one single message that is being communicated with all this is that Mustafa Khamenei is alive, is engaged, and firmly in command. So because what Iran's government is trying to do here is working hard to assert that its leader is in control. So that is basically what, what they trying to do. Because when you have now what you have, you have Iran fighting two fronts simultaneously. One is military, the other one is informational. This, that's just the norm of the game because we do the same. And look what the— like, the reason I shared the clip is to prove to you that indeed a US asset has been targeted by Iran defenses, or, or, uh, missiles rather. So, and the Pentagon and the Central Command are saying, oh no, no, no, no other US assets has been targeted.

None.

That's just what the Iranians are saying, but it turns out to be true.

We were attacked for that. And here is what we know. By the way, I'm going to put a link for you about what we know about Iran's response to Donald Trump's proposal.

That's why he's pissed, because Iran turned it down.

And by the way, thank you for those who participated in the community survey when I asked the question. Do you believe Iran is likely to compromise to meet US demands? We had about 1,500 participants. 4% of the participants said yes, Iran will compromise. 93% said no, Iran will not compromise. And 3% answered don't know.

So I want to just to say thank you for participating in this.

And again, I do this for a reason, because I want to see where your thinking is. And this, believe it or not, align with my own. I am thinking in the same term, in the same path. So I'm going to vote on this as no, Iran is not going to compromise to meet US demands. And this is exactly where you have the, uh, the idea of, uh, uh, what, what's been taking place as far as this particular negotiations.

It will be worth to do, uh, a live stream on it at some point, and I will, uh, think about that one and do it.

Let me share a clip with you about where things are, uh, just for the last 48 hours. And this is in English. I'm not going to play it in full.

I'm playing just a little bit of it.

So take a listen, please.

Last 24 hours in geopolitics. In Iran, Tehran called its war-ending proposal reasonable and generous, but Trump rejected it as totally unacceptable, increasing fears that failed talks could reignite war. In the U.S., Trump is furious over Iran's response after Tehran demanded Hormuz sovereignty, sanctions relief, frozen assets and war compensation, while leaving its nuclear program out of the public terms. In Israel, Netanyahu warned Iran is far from defeated, saying there is still "work to be done" because Tehran retains many capabilities from before the war. In the UK, Keir Starmer admitted voters are "frustrated" after disastrous local election results, but vowed "I'm not going to walk away." All right, I'm gonna stop it right there because they talk about other countries.

It's not within the realm of what we are talking about.

So, and this is again just to continue with my own analysis, and I'll do two clips for you and conclude, uh, this live stream here. So, uh, because we have to consider, and, and, and to me, when you have headlines from, uh, Washington or some other allies in Europe, whatever saying that, well, the Iranian government is fractured, it's, it's divided, and so forth. But when I'm finding out, that is completely the reverse, because what Iran is demonstrating is that demonstrating that its government still functioning. Because just consider what Iran has accomplished since February 28th. If we think— and I'm going to share with you 3 or 4 parts— one is politically What is— you have the Assembly of Experts within Iran Parliament convened and selected a new Supreme Leader, and the state apparatus continues operating without collapse. A remarkable institutional feat under wartime conditions. And we're talking from the beginning of the war. This is politically. Militarily, you consider that Iran launched Operation true promise for in retaliation to the US-Israeli attacks, meaning it absorbed some sort of the initial strike but is still mounting an organized retaliatory operation. That's not a behavior of a broken government or broken military, in my opinion. Diplomatically, consider this: Iran simultaneously manages negotiations through 5 separate mediating countries: Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. And why is this important to understand? Because it requires coordinated foreign policy, not just chaos. And the last one is, economically speaking, the Shwed of Hormuz is credibly precisely because Iran government still controls the apparatus to act on it. And this is again where I, I differ with some analysts in the West that is saying, oh, the government of Iran is divided and it's fragmented. Evidence on the ground tells me otherwise, because what evidence actually shows is that you have a government that is able to function despite whatever, absorbing these devastating, uh, strikes, but it didn't collapse. And that alone is significant resilience. Just think about that one. This transitioned leadership under wartime conditions, which is usually not easy, and it's— it happened. The control of the narrative is also important to understand. And the genuine military deterrence. Iran has capabilities. Like I, I always said, there are some surprises Iran is not willing to disclose at this point, at least based on my own research. So the more accurate read, in my opinion, is that the government in Iran is under serious stress. Nobody's denying this. But it's still functioning. That is the key. It is still adapting and it's still negotiating from a position of residual strength. That is the bottom line. Because it's not— to me, it doesn't appear like a government on the verge of collapse. And, and even the uncertainty about the Supreme Leader, Mujtaba Khamenei, while some might say, well, he's dead, It proved the real— because what you need to understand, uh, the importance of that, uh, uh, uncertainty is not the same as weakness. Because Iran has survived now, survived for almost 4 decades, survived the sanctions, survived assassinations. Yes, its late leader, Supreme Leader, was assassinated, but he survived. Its internal unrest for decades. Because what the pattern— what is the pattern? What is the common theme among all this?

Is that the pattern is the resilience, not fragility, as some have claimed in the West. That is what I want you to get out of this, uh, uh, brief analysis and livestream here, that Iran's government still functioning.

And it has, it has strategy in place.

We don't know how we're going to react now that Iran rejected the US proposal. And I think, I think I'm gonna do live stream especially for that because you need to understand what's going on.

So, so let me play, uh, two clips, actually three.

I have three for you. And, and this is just to show you something here, uh Uh, especially the MQ.

I don't know if Iran has those or not.

Uh, MQ-11, those are Chinese air defense system. Oh my gosh, you see how they operate. Uh, take a look here, please.

Now, why am I sharing this? Because I wanted to bring to your attention— and I don't have the answer— whether Iran is in possession of this particular, uh, type of weapon.

I do not know. I'm going to look into this and check with my own sources whether it has those, maybe keeping— I don't know. What I know for a fact is that Iran has some surprises that it's not disclosing yet. That depends on what the response now is going to be from Donald Trump that Iran rejected the US proposal.

Uh, let's take a look at the next one.

It's in English. And this, of course, we all know that the Strait of Hormuz is shut down. All right, there is no surprise.

But there are 4 countries, especially— there are more than 4, but the key ones that they are now is going to be really harmed by this particular closure.

Take a listen, please.

If Hormuz suddenly closed, these countries would be hit the hardest. At number 5, Japan. Japan imports most of its oil from the Middle East. If the strait closes, its energy supply could drop fast. Number 4. South Korea. South Korea depends heavily on oil shipments through this route, making its economy extremely vulnerable. Number 3. India. A huge portion of India's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. A closure could send fuel prices skyrocketing. Number 2. China. China is one of the world's biggest oil importers., and much of that oil travels through this narrow waterway. And finally, at number 1, Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia exports massive amounts of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. If it closes, global oil markets could face chaos overnight.

Very, very important. Uh, speaking of Saudi Arabia, I do remember disclosing in my book when I wrote, uh, about Saudi Arabia that, uh, uh, Saudi Arabia will face a major problem if the Strait of Hormuz shutdown in case of a war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Back then, what I argued, because that was the intentions of the US, to never wanted Iran and Saudi to mend, uh, uh, to sort of, uh, have diplomatic relations till the Chinese succeeded in doing that. So my sort of my assessment still hold, because if it's not for—

for—

I'm sorry, if it's not for oil, we won't be talking about Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia won't exist anyway. It'll exist on whatever, but, uh, because if without oil Saudis cannot survive anyways.

And the last clip I want to share with you has nothing to do with war.

It has to do with the world of technology, especially the car industry. Why is this important?

Uh, it's because of what BYD—

and I remember when I was in China last time, I went to BYD and the manager was kind enough to let me walk around. Uh, I want you to see this video here, this clip, I'm sorry, uh, that now BYD, why it is at the top. Take a listen, please.

BYD just sold the most expensive car in its history. The Yangwang U9 Extreme, limited to just 30 units worldwide, fetched over $2.7 million at the 2026 Beijing Auto Show. BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu personally handed the keys to Australian entrepreneur Nick Politis at the event. The The numbers behind this machine are just as extreme as the price tag. Nearly 3,000 horsepower, a world record top speed of 308 miles per hour, and the first pure electric production car to ever break the 7-minute barrier at the Nürburgring. China is no longer just competing in the budget EV space. They are going straight for the hypercar crown.

Very, very important. Why is this important?

Because when you consider the price of Bugatti, You know, and I, I think $9 or $11 million, whatever. Here is now the Chinese 3,000 horsepower. Makes you wonder where that, uh, uh, uh, technology is, is moving forwards.

All right, let me conclude this. And, uh, before I sign off here, so what so far can, can conclude from what we talked about today is that Iran has survived these strikes of the US. It has installed its new Supreme Leader, under fire, and is now issuing war directives widely while at the same time quietly negotiating peace, all at the same time. And this is not a government that is collapsing or is in collapse phase. It is a government that, in my opinion, and again, I have, I'm I'm not defending Iran.

I'm, I'm stating what is objective. That's all I've been doing. I just didn't understand why YouTube sometimes doesn't like when I talk objectively about certain countries, like what happened recently.

Without getting into the detail, uh, what it appears to me is that the Iranian government is adapting, is calculating, and also is waiting because the world is watching now whether Mojtaba Khamenei will emerge— basically depends, they're wondering—

will emerge as a decisive wartime leader or remain a figure operating from the shadows indefinitely?

And I don't know, I don't know the answer.

All I know is that he is aware of all what is going on and giving the instructions or directives moving forward.

So before I sign off, I want to leave you with this question.

So, and really, if you could answer, that would be greatly.

Is Iran, in your opinion, is Iran playing for time to negotiate a way out, or is it quietly preparing for a conflict bigger than anything we've seen yet?

Let me repeat this for you, and if you can leave me your comments in the below, in the comment section, I would greatly appreciate it. Is Iran, in your opinion, in your opinion, playing for time to negotiate a way out, or is it quietly preparing for a conflict bigger than anything we've seen yet? So, so I would greatly appreciate your, uh, your answer to that. Uh, I thank you guys for keeping the conversation civil here in the chat box. I know sometimes we get some elements, whatever, but it's not worth it. I want to take this opportunity to say thank you to Luis Talavera, and I'm going to share what he wrote, or she— Luis, uh, thank you so much for your fantastic input in regard to the current war against Iran. You're most welcome, you're most welcome. Sometimes a nice kind word can go a long way, so truly, truly appreciate you for that. I'll take this opportunity to say, uh, thank you to, uh, uh, many supporters now, the end up buying me, cups of teas in support of the Asia trip. Uh, they also bought me coffee in support of the channel, and they provided donations through PayPal, which, by the way, all the donations through PayPal will be used for the Asia trip. So I want to say first thank you to Clark Marva. That's the first person I want to say thank you to for your generous donation on PayPal. Truly, truly appreciate you.

To those who bought me coffee, I want to say thank you to my dear friend Ray.

Uh, I met him— you all remember the clip I did with you, for—

with him in—

when I was in China. Uh, Ray is an avid supporter of the channel. I'm very, very grateful for his support, for his friendship, and for his also advice. Uh, Ray and I, we talk, uh, regularly, uh, offline. So thank you very much, Ray. Uh, Maestros 81, Thank you so much for your generous donation in support of the channel. And the last person today, this morning, donated to in support of the channel was Jeff. Thank you very much for supporting the channel. Let me put the link for, for the channel down here. So, and I'm gonna give a shout out, uh, to those who bought me, uh, cups of teas in support of my upcoming Asia trip. It is the link for it.

I want to give shout out to On Dragon.

Thank you very much for so many cups of teas you bought me in support of my upcoming Asia trip. Very, uh, thank you very much for that. Uh, Zero88, once again, thank you for your continued support and truly appreciate your generosity and supporting my upcoming Asia trip. And the last person I want to give shout out to is Nigel Lem. Thank you very much for supporting my upcoming trip to Asia. Here is the link for those who might be interested in supporting, uh, this upcoming trip. I also want to share quickly the link for the books, my books that I wrote, uh, about Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Russia, the US foreign policy, and Iran. Uh, if you are interested in getting a copy of this, just go to this link, and I hope to meet you one day. I'll autograph the book for you. I'll be happy to do it. So, once again, I'm going to be working on the next stories for you this week. I hope to see you again if you get a chance to join me. As always, remember: geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, bye-bye.