In this commentary, geopolitical analyst David Oualaalou examines the recent escalation in the South China Sea, focusing on the Chinese Coast Guard’s water‑cannon attack on Philippine vessels and the United States’ public affirmation of support for Manila. He contextualizes the incident within the broader legal framework of the 2016 Hague arbitration ruling and the competing maritime claims of regional states. Oualaalou critiques President Marcos Jr.’s foreign‑policy approach, arguing that the leader is attempting to appease both Washington and Beijing, a strategy he deems ineffective and indicative of weak leadership. The analyst details the April 2023 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) that expands U.S. access to up to nine Philippine military bases, raising concerns about secrecy and potential escalation. He outlines China’s strategic motivations to secure vital sea lanes, such as the Strait of Malacca, and its response to increased U.S. presence. Throughout, Oualaalou expresses skepticism toward the reliability of U.S. security guarantees, drawing parallels with Taiwan and Ukraine, and calls for a more transparent discussion of the Philippines’ geopolitical positioning. The video concludes with a call for viewer engagement and a promise of further elaboration in a live stream and an upcoming book on China.
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Hello everyone and welcome to Geopolitical Trends. My name is David Oualaalou. So good to be with you as always. As a geopolitical analyst, I ask, why is Washington publicly confirming its support for Manila, Philippines, that is, encountering Beijing's moves in South China Sea? In this video, I'm going to provide you my brief analysis as to what to expect from Philippines given its recent vague and ambiguous foreign policies under the leadership of Marcos Jr. Let's dive in into this fascinating development here. So the State Department, the US State Department that is, said in a tweet that it stands by Philippines in the face of a dangerous Chinese move in the South China Sea, as Manila, which is like taking— it's almost taking an about-face— Manila accused the Chinese Coast Guard of firing water cannon at its boats. So a Philippine Coast Guard statement on Sunday strongly condemned, and I put this in quotes, the dangerous Chinese Coast Guard maneuvers and the illegal use of water cannon against Philippines Coast Guard's boats. End of quote. Well, of course, just to put this in perspective for you from a geographical perspective, the incidents occurred a few days ago when Philippines Coast Guard boats escorted ships carrying supplies for Filipino soldiers stationed in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. Interesting developments, though. So China, of course, China, as we all know, claims full sovereignty over, over the sea, which is a trade corridor for trillions of dollars worth of goods on a yearly basis, that is. And this, of course, there are other claims by other countries, or rival claims, that is, from other countries like Brunei, like Malaysia, of course the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam. Interesting enough is that China has reached some agreements with other countries. They resolved the disputes in a, in a friendly manner. Philippines seems to be taking the reverse approach, which I found very interesting. So, uh, yes, there were some arguments as to why China ignored the 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of the International Arbitration of The Hague. But do we trust the international court in The Hague to do the right thing anyway? I mean, I'll let you be the judge of that. So we can't deny that there is discontent and there is— there are tensions, rather, and discord regarding what's going on in the South China Sea. I mean, we provoking sometimes by sending our naval assets in, in a provocation way against China. So I find it interesting that Philippines doesn't say a word about it. Well, China is also expanding its presence and influence in all areas in the South China Sea. I can see the rationale for why China doing this, because they want to secure access to the maritime routes, because energy, as I always say, For example, I'll give just quick example for you guys. The Strait of Malacca, it's considered a choking point for China. So they have to secure it. And so this is why China is increasing its presence and influence in all areas of the South China Sea, including the water opposites and near the Philippines territory. So to that end, It's kind of, uh, we're seeing almost tit for tat. And yet this was an issue a few months ago. Philippines was able to sort of sit down and have a conversation with the Chinese. Things have changed after the visit of Marcos, I think, to the White House a few months ago. So, so the, the Philippines— this is according to the Manila, uh, or Philippines government, that is— believes that China wants to dominate all of the waters in the South China Sea. Ah, I don't know about that. So, so without granting any rights to others, or if it is the case, how come China reached an agreement with Indonesia? How come China reached an agreement with Singapore, or, or Indonesia for that matter, or Malaysia? That is so, so interesting how Philippines— I think, and again, I could be wrong, but this is my opinion— I think Marcos Jr. is playing trying to play both sides, and it's not gonna work. It's not gonna work. So, so here's the thing. Because of the unresolved dispute that is between the two nations, Philippines and China, fishing vessels and Philippines Coast Guard vessels are constantly harassed by the Chinese military vessels deployed in the region. That's their claim for that. So In contrast, here's the idea, you have to put this in from both sides of the argument. In contrast to the strained relations with China, the Philippines relations with the US have returned to warmth and strategy under the leadership of President Marcos Jr. Well, I won't call it leadership, it's a weakness, is the incompetency. You know, he is incompetent, he couldn't take stand. Philippines East— or I'm sorry, ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Philippines is the weak link there. It's no different than India in BRICS. That's how I see it. So, so Marcos Jr. is trying to play both sides. And of course, like I said earlier, he made a historic visit to Washington, D.C. last May. It was in May. Well, of course, he had to ensure access to his assets that's been frozen for a while the United States. Some analysts from some other Western capitals, like in Paris, Brussels, London, Frankfurt, and so forth, argue that— or even, even in Washington— argue that like Albo, the Prime Minister of Australia, Marcos— so, which I agree with some of them on this, because there are some who are in the West but still speaking the truth. That's, that's the reality of it. So some have argued that, and I'm one of those analysts that argue that, like Albo, the Prime Minister of Australia, Marcos has sold his country, given how Filipinos now are disappointed at him. No different than what Aussies, how they are disappointed at the Prime Minister Albo, incompetent. It's no different than the Germans, uh, so sort of disappointed at the weak Chancellor Olaf Scholz. And of course, in Britain, they are disappointed with the incompetent Prime Minister Sunak, which, by the way, uh, Sunak now is reaching out to China for help as the economy of UK is sinking down further. So President Marcos, of course, sought the assurances that the United States will support him in an open confrontation with China. Yeah, good luck with that. Sad to say about my country. If you can trust the US government, not the people. American people are good people. You know, I'm an example of it. You know, you can have my word if I give you my word on something. If I am to do it, I'll say I will do it. If I don't, I'll say I won't do it. So at least you know what to expect. With me as a US citizen. You know, some Americans, majority of us are, but it's the damn government. Can't trust the government. So if the government's saying to Philippines, we will support you, yeah, good luck with that. It's the same case in Taiwan. Some Taiwanese are living in some parallel world or universe that is, you know, we're not gonna come to the aid of Taiwan if things fall, uh, go south. You know, look no further than Ukraine right now. So, so the White House has declared that America's commitment to defending the Philippines is— and I put this in quotes— unwavering. Yeah, once again, good luck. Are you gonna trust the, uh, the White House right now with the Democrats there, or the Republican for that matter? No, no, you shouldn't. You shouldn't. So And of course, we all know how the US policies have been provoking China, and China responded, uh, uh, by accusing, uh, uh, the US of threatening regional peace and stability. Following the signing— here is where it gets very dicey— that was following the signing of a new agreement between the Philippines and the United States, which was just signed in April. So, and by which Philippines will allow the US to use 4 additional military bases in Philippines. I found out there's more than 4, and this is where it's very, very, very problematic for the Philippines moving forward. So Chinese Foreign Ministry, of course, spokeswoman Mao Ning said that out of the individual interest The US continues to strengthen its military deployments in the region, stressing that the result will inevitably be increased military tension and a threat to regional peace and stability. End of quote. So, so, as you may know, uh, uh, and I'll be happy to further elaborate on this in a live stream because I know a lot of information about it because I'm in process of writing a book about China., and I have to know about what's going on in the region, and this is part of my academic background. So I have that information if you would like me to elaborate on this. So Washington and Manila, you know, both of them are decade-old allies. I will call it allies, but they are not. Basically, Philippines is subservient to the US. You know, we're just using the formality of the word in here to sound like Oh, we are allies. No, we're not. We are telling Philippines what to do and not to do. So they work under our authority. It's no different than Australia. It's no different than South Korea. It's no different than Japan. Straightforward. So, and as the argument said here from the White House that, you know, Washington and Manila are old allies linked by a defense treaty, which is true. They are linked by defense treaty that was concluded or signed in 2014. So, and it was known as what's so-called, I'm putting in quote, Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement. I'm familiar with it. So basically, these agreements which allow the United States forces to use 5 bases, Filipino bases, that is to store military equipment and material in them. When it said material, they didn't disclose what type of material. We could also be talking about nuclear weapon also, and Philippines won't even know it. So, and the number of, of, uh, of these bases are raised to 9 bases as of February. So, but without specifying the locations of the 4 other bases. So you all can see, that's what I, uh, that's what prompts me to come and do this video for you, because I'm gonna keep it short, concise, to the point. And if you like me to further elaborate, I'd be happy to do it on a live stream. So, so make sure to leave me some comments because I like to read your feedback, as always. So, and please, if you like the content of this video, hit the like button and subscribe. I would really appreciate it. As always, remember, geopolitics impact your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, bye-bye.
