Pulling China into the Iran-Israel Conflict? w/Carl Zha

All right, hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Excited to be with you as always. I'm even more excited because my dear friend Carl Zah is here, uh, for our monthly conversation. In addition to this, why I'm excited a little bit, because I'm getting better, so I can talk now. So anyway, excited to be with you guys, and thank you, Carl, for being here, man.

Thank you for inviting me as always, David.

Of course, of course, of course. Everybody expects you in this community here because they enjoy and also learning from your knowledge and so forth. So without further ado, we're gonna jump in because we got a lot to cover, Carl, and I like to have your insights and inputs about really a host of issues. So I'm— I would like to start first of all with your assessment overall How did you see and still seeing the US-Israeli-Iran conflict?

Well, um, Israel, Israel did not win this round. I mean, uh, despite a lot of people saying, oh, Israel clearly won because they took out the top Iranian leadership, they, they killed the Iranian scientists, they did more damage to Iranian infrastructure. But look, War is not won by merely numbers. War is won, um, also by the will to pursue war. This is what Vietnamese understood in the war against— to push the Americans out of their country. They understood that they can take more pain than the Americans, you know, because the Vietnam War issue is actually not an existential issue for, for United States. So they would not fight as hard as the Vietnamese do. And the Vietnamese were able to— they were willing to take a lot more pain to, and, and, and suffer through it in order to come to, to achieve their objective, which is liberation of their country. The difference between Iran and Israel is Iran is a much larger country. It actually has strategic Yeah, so it, it's like, um, you know, like Iran can definitely take more pain than Israel. I mean, I use analogy of a boxing match between, uh, with Muhammad Ali. Uh, you know, one of the reasons Muhammad Ali is so good, not only he's, you know, he, he, he's stung like a bee, but he also, he can absorb a lot of punches. He can take punishment. And this is— Israel can't. Israel, because it does not have strategic depth, all its cities are clustered together. And on top of that, Israeli economy was already on the brink of collapse because it has— because its pursuit of genocide in Gaza in last year and its aggression against Lebanon. And, and at this critical juncture when Iranian missiles are raining down on Tel Aviv, on Haifa, people in Israel, they can no longer, uh, pretend they can't have a normal life in Israel. And that's important because, yeah, mostly Israelis that have multiple passports, they have somewhere to go. And when the shit hit the fan, most of them will leave, and they did. And the Israeli government was trying to put a clamp down on that, uh, but you, you, you cannot run a settler colonial country without settlers. When settlers are leaving, that's not going to work. And, and as the time went on, we saw that Iron Dome system and the US, uh, THAAD system became increasingly ineffective because they're running out of interceptor missiles. And, and, and, and Iranian missile barrage keep on coming. And, you know, even if the, the numbers they send have, have reduced, but more missiles are finding their target because You know, obviously Israelis, they start to ration their interceptor missiles and decide when to use them. The, the, the, the issue with the missile defense is you're using bullet to shoot on the bullets, but what if the other, other side decide to rain bullets from the sky like a hailstorm? You know, any kind of missile defense system can be overwhelmed with enough missiles and And Iran has tens of thousands of missiles. And if they keep this going, we already have saw reports from Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, etc., that says Israel will be running out of interceptor missiles in a week. This is why Israel sue for peace. They, they approach Trump to ask for the ceasefire. And you know what Israel had tried to do in the beginning is they try to drag United States into the war. Because they know they cannot take on Iran alone by themselves. They don't— they don't have the capability for it. So there was tremendous pressure through the Israeli lobby to push the Trump administration to do— to, to wage a full-on war on Iran on behalf of Israel. What Trump did, he, he decided, you know, he, he understand going to war, another war in Middle East is immensely unpopular with the recent experience in Iraq, Afghanistan still fresh in American memory. So he decided to threat— you know, I, I called this, uh, you know, when I had a show with Jamar Thomas a couple weeks, like a week ago before the ceasefire took place, I said the, the most likely case is Trump is going to do a symbolic glancing blow against Iranian nuclear facility and then he was going to claim victory and then he will want ask for his Nobel Peace Prize. And that's exactly what he did. That's exactly what he did. Because now we know the US actually have warned Iran several days in advance that, okay, we're gonna, we're gonna strike here, don't— please don't retaliate, we're gonna strike here, but it's just, it's just for show. And then, and then same thing when Iran did retaliate against the US base in Qatar, they also let the US know in advance, okay, just, just get your ships out of the way, we're gonna do this to satisfy our national honor. You know, we know you said don't retaliate, but where you wrong? We're a proud nation, we got to retaliate. So just make sure you, you scamper your ships. So this is all like a— this is what's managed. This is a managed show, um, and, and, and for, for Trump, that got kind of Israeli lobby off his back because he can show, he can claim, hey, I did my thing, I stood by Israel, you know, America's It's great, I did everything and I destroyed Iran nuclear program, so give me a Nobel Peace Prize. And we know that's bogus because, you know, from satellite pictures that, that show the strike on Fordow enrichment plant, they just make couple holes, you know, make couple craters. And, and, uh, you know, by math and physics, we know those bunker busters alone, they could not penetrate 80 meters depth into the mountainside. Um, so what you— what Trump administration claim in their briefing, they say, oh, we did this Top Gun Maverick move, like we totally moved 6 B-2 bombers on top of each other and we fire this precision bomb bunker buster one on top of each other. They're all winning the same hole, all 6 of them. And they, and they think that the compilation effect penetrated the bunker. Come on, Maverick, Top Gun is a movie, okay? I don't believe— I don't believe they did any of that. Um, right now we can only take their words for it. Uh, but the— I think the— from, you know, what we do know is the, the bunker buster of that size usually create enormous, enormous craters. Yeah, but from what we saw in satellite picture, that doesn't seem to be the case. And we also know that, um, uh, uh, US also fire Tomahawk cruise missiles from their ships. And so I— there's— I suspect— I mean, I, I don't even know if they actually risk flying 6 B-2s into Iran, because for, for, for mission— I mean, for, for, for symbolic, non— a glancing blow strike, it doesn't make sense to risk your precious assets you know, to risk a shootdown. Imagine the embarrassment if a B-2 got shot down by Iranian, uh, air defense, you know, like that. That would be so, so like, just be so much embarrassment. So I, my guess is, um, that might not even be B-2 bombing, that, that might just be cruise missiles, Tomahawk cruise missiles. And we know for sure Tomahawk cruise missiles would not be able to penetrate trade that debt. Anyway, this whole thing is a stage show for the, for the public, for the Israelis, so Trump can, you know, get back to deport immigrants back in the United States. And, and, uh, so, so Israel did not win this round. They, they, they, uh, they were firing off— so, uh, they were firing off a lot of interceptor missiles, and they, they're running into a supply constraint because guess what, they, they, uh, they need to be supplied by Americans. And those THAAD missiles, each, each THAAD interceptor missile costs between $12 to $13 million, right? And, and each THAAD battery, the launcher, the radar, the entire system, it costs $1 billion with a B. Now people are saying, oh, money doesn't matter, you know, Israel get them for free anyway, and Uncle Sam can always print money. But Uncle Sam can print as much money as they want, but can they print missiles? Can they print missile production? The answer obviously is no, because, um, uh, I, I, I, I saw, I, I saw the estimate, uh, they fire either somewhere between 12 to 36, uh, uh, 32 THAAD missiles during the course of 12 days. Um, the, the U.S. production of THAAD missiles scheduled for 2012 is 12. 12 missile interceptors. So Israel fired off more than a year's worth of production. Yeah, in 12 days. They're not going to be able to keep that up. And, and the, the US planned production, that was planned before the Chinese put the export control on the rare earth. And guess what? Uh, that, that export control is not going away right now. Anybody, any American company who need access to Chinese rare earth or Chinese rare earth, uh, heat-resistant magnet, which is used in F-35 and the missiles, they need to write an application to the Chinese Commerce Ministry and says, sir, can I please have some rare earth export? And The, the, the, the tariff war talk that was resolved in London, China agreed to grant export license for 6 months to, to a group of American car makers, but they did not make any promise about Lockheed Martin. As far as we know, the Chinese ban on rare earth to, uh US military. Military, yeah. That's—

but Carl, Carl, why will China even agree to that? Why would China agree to that given that, you know, we're going to turn back and stab them in the back?

I, I, I, I'll address that question because, uh, people need to understand this. China— I, I, I talk, I, I talk about this in our last show— China actually don't want to destroy United States. You know, China actually did not want to cripple the US economy right now. At that time, the, the rare earth export was, uh, control was so crippling that US car makers were thinking about moving their car production to China because they, they can't access those rare earth, uh, materials or the, the, the, the, the magnets. Uh, but, but because the Chinese export control law currently did not cover parts that contain those magnets. So, so the, the US carmaker were seriously making plans to move, just move their whole car production to China, even, even with the high tariff that Trump is putting out. So at least they can make cars. But, um, so China decided to relax export control against those US carmakers because again, China is not interested to cripple US economy. Oh, at least not yet, not at this moment. You know, even with the tariff war, US remains the, the top 3— the top— the third export destination for Chinese goods. So the top one is ASEAN, the top Chinese trading partner is ASEAN. The second one is EU. Now United States have became number 3. But still, you know, China don't want to kill its customers, right? It doesn't make sense for China to kill its customers. All China wants is to have US come back to do trade, you know, as normal, normal nations. You know, basically you have— this is like, uh, this is the scenario now. United States is this crazy guy, you know, who goes to Wendy's and, and make a, make a big rant like, oh, we're gonna war, we're gonna destroy you, we're gonna sit on a throne of Chinese skulls. That's what the US Defense Secretary actually said, by the way. And, and the Chinese will be like, sir, this is a Wendy's, just make your order for burgers and get out. And, and, and, you know, China just want to have a normal trade relationship. They're not interested in to destroy United States, you know. Why, why destroy your customers? That doesn't make sense. But the export control on US defense industry remains on because, you know, like, that, that, that, that actually makes sense. And, you know, U.S. cannot make those, uh, uh, like, they depend on a particular critical mineral called samarium. Now, U.S. do have a samarium mine, um, in Washington, but it was already closed down. And, and, and so, but they do have those mineral resources. People say, oh, oh, we just gotta get rid of our environmental regulations and then and mine and drill, baby, drill, you know, just mine, baby, mine. But even that's not going to work because it's not going to work. It's not about mining. China only produce, uh, only mine about 60% of the world's critical minerals, but China process over 90% of the critical mineral. The processing is the key. It's because, um, originally, uh, you know, all the West, including US, decide to offsource all these, uh, mining of critical minerals to China because it's incredibly polluting. So they, they essentially offsource all their pollutions to China. Uh, but in the 1980s and 1990s, China was very poor, so it was willing to do the dirty job, literally, to mine those minerals. But when that happened, um, then, then China decided to move up the, uh, technology tree. They move up the value chain by also building on the processing. And, and all the Western companies, they help China doing that because it makes sense, because there's not, there's not that much money in actually, you know, making those rare earth products. So, so like, they're, they're perfectly happy with China both mine and processing it. Now in 2025, it's been over 40 years there has been multiple generations of the evolution of the technology of refining rare earth. You know, the technology to make the— those heat-resistant magnets from the rare earth today is not the same as they were back in 1980s. And guess what? All these technological innovation took place in China. So today, the, the technology, the machine tools involving processing rare earth into magnets, they're all Chinese. This is why even they— when they dig out the critical minerals in, in Australia, in America, guess what? They're still sending them to China for processing because, because U.S. does not have the processing capability. So this is, this is a real chokehold that China has, and, and China can decide, uh, you know, who gets them. And so You know, China did a global ban, you know, global export control, uh, you know, because they, they understand if even if they export it to Europe or Japan, they will just set up front company to divert the supply to United States. Um, and this is why, you know, India is complaining right now because, uh, you know, they got, they, they got caught. They caught the stray because India is complaining China is putting the critical mineral ban on them. Because it's a global ban. So what China did right now is they decide to relax the, the, the export control, but only extend to civilian industries. Yeah, for those critical minerals that's crucial for military application, there, there's— it's still very str— I mean, that ban hasn't been lifted. So, so, so Israel and the United States are facing a real critical supply issue. They're not able to replenish that, yeah, those ammunitions and missiles, that's been depleted very quickly. And we know they were already low on inventory before Israel started their strike because United States has been sending a lot of missiles to Ukraine. Yeah. And, and then, and, and now we're down to the point that US does not have enough missiles for itself. I saw a, a guy on Twitter ranting like, oh my God, Why are we wasting fat missiles in Israel? Those precious fat missiles could help us defend our aircraft carriers. You got war against China. And I'm like, dude, you don't get it. Like, if those fat missiles not effective to block out the Iranian missile barrage, you have no chance against China. Because compared to Iran, China have lot more missiles, lot more advanced missiles. And China literally makes their anti-ship ballistic missiles in lights-off automated factory run by robots so they can make them 24/7 rolling off this assembly line. And China do not have a supply issue with the materials, you know. They, oh, they have all the resources. Yeah, they have all the resources to make those missiles and they have all the technology to make that, you know, to go bird in the missile production. It's So it's a fantasy that, that US think they can, they can confront China in that way. And this also show this, um, I think this conflict show a couple things. One is obviously, uh, to have a, a large missile force, uh, is probably very cost effective, you know. Uh, drones and missiles are very cost effective. You, you see, um, there I saw a video of Israeli F-16 flying in the Syrian airspace shooting down a Iranian Shaheed-139 drone, and it was hailed as a great success. I'm like, wait, wait a minute, that Iranian drone costs anywhere between $20,000 to $40,000. He uses literally like the motorcycle engine to power it. Iran can crank that out, no problem. Yeah, whereas the Python missiles that Israel— Israeli use, that's a $400,000 missile, you know. How many can you make? You know, how Again, it's a problem. It's, it's, it's asymmetric warfare. You know, you are not— this is the same, same issue on Ukraine. All these expensive NATO hardware is getting blown up by cheap drones that, that Russia made with the help of, uh, Iranian technology and Chinese parts. And this is, this is where— this is also because one reason is because the U.S. defense industry is, yeah, it's designed not to fight, make weapons that fight war. It's designed to make weapons that sucks the maximum amount of money from everybody else and divert it to the top 1%, to all the shareholders of Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, etc. So, so F-35 is designed to be as expensive as possible, as, as all those missiles as well. Um, you know, it's not designed for efficiency. And, and that's, that's a difference between, say, Iranian and Chinese system. Uh, they, they actually designed to fight to win. And, and, and so the, the— this is a— but, but from Iranian side, they also need a respite. That's why they accepted the ceasefire deal, because one of the problem, uh, that, that was exposed is how infiltrated they were by the Mossad. And, you know, they They got— they, they got the most— I knew exactly where their nuclear scientists live, where the Iranian military leadership live, and they had spies inside the country launching drone attacks from Iran itself. Um, so, so Iran needs the time to clean the house. And another thing they, they need to do is they need to build up their Air Force and air defense system. You know, Iranian— the Iran, they kind of gave up on their Air Force for a while because they have been under decades of Western sanctions. You know, they wouldn't— and, and, um, and, and they're— so that, that's why Israeli Air Force had the air dominance. You know, they were able to fly into Iran to bomb all the Iranian missile launching sites, and that also reduced the amount of the missiles that Iran could send to hit Israel.

Um, and, and, uh, which by the way, Carl, which by the way, what you said was facilitated by some Arab countries. And I am in a process— I, by the way, guys, I will do a video separately for you, but there are Arab countries that have facilitated that particular attack on Iran. It shows you how hypocritical those Arab countries.

Yeah, I mean, like, first of all, you know, like, they— this is all part of the plan, by the way. You know, first they destabilize Syria They did a regime change in Syria, so they have no problem flying over the Syrian airspace anymore. And then there's also Jordan. You know, Jordan is basically the loyal vassal of United States and Israel. So, so when the Iranian missiles were flying on their way to, to Tel Aviv, Jordanian Air Force, they scramble to, to intercept incoming Iranian drones and missiles. Right? So yeah, think about this for a moment. Israel has probably the world's most sophisticated layered missile defense. When the, when the Iranian missiles fly toward Israel, first the Jordanians, you know, doing their puppy dog, uh, thing for, for United States, scramble their Air Force and air defense to try to shoot down those missiles. And once those missiles makes over, um, they, they're faced by the US THAAD system, try to shoot them down. And then if they made through that, there's a US, uh, uh, um, anti-missile shield deployed from the US ship parked on the, on the, uh, eastern side of Mediterranean. And those missiles try to shoot down the Iranian missile. If they get through that, the final piece is Iron Dome. Of Israel trying to shoot them down. So the fact that this world's most sophisticated missile shield was, was, was useless, was useless. Because if you think about it, if, if only 30%, um, of the missiles make through, think, think about what that would mean for a U.S. aircraft carrier battle group in the Western Pacific. If only 30% of the missile makes through, that means those aircraft carriers are toast. They're toast. You know, like, this is why, despite the rhetorics of U.S. pivot to Asia, they're going to confront China— what if you look at what's actually happening to the ground on the troop deployment? They're actually pulling back. They're pulling back from the first island chain, which is Okinawa, Japan, and then they, they're pulling back to Guam. Because they understood everything— all the US bases in the first island chain, this island chain that stretched from Japan down to all the way South Korea, Okinawa, Taiwan, Philippines— all those US bases will be toast by, by Chinese missile barrage based in China. And so this is why they're retreating to the second island chain, which is Guam. Center on Guam. So this is a real lesson. And speaking of the, um, the Arab countries, you know, one piece, one major piece of this Trump-Israeli joint effort in reshaping the Middle East is Abraham Accords, extension of Abraham Accords. And you, you saw that big billboards that would display in Israel called the Abraham Shield that lists all the Arab leaders. They're framed, they're all looking at Trump in the center like he's a big daddy, like pathetic. Yeah, and, and among those Arab leaders also included the current leader of Syria, the former terrorist, the leader of al-Nusra, of ISIS, the guy that US used to have $15 million bounty on his head. He is now getting welcomed into this, uh, you know, the, the, the, the Abraham, Abraham Shield program. But it's, uh, again, that, that, that's fantasy. This is— there's no going forward with the Abraham Accords extension because given what Israel has done in, in Gaza, um, they— no Arab country leader can afford to be seen as weak on Israel at this point. You know, even if they— when they help Israel, it's kind of on the down low. They, they don't want to publicize it to the public because the public really don't like that. And, and, uh, and so, so, so, so right now, um, uh, you, you, Iran needs time to recuperate, to rebuild. This is what, what Israel is doing also, by the way. So the ceasefire is really—

it wasn't about ceasefire. It was about to— it was about to regroup him.

Exactly, it's a pause so the both side can regroup for round 2. And for Iran, this is why, you know, they did two things. Uh, first, they sent their foreign minister to Russia, uh, because they probably right now want to, uh, want to fast-track on some of the weapon deliveries. Because before this, Iran had ordered air defense system S-300, S-400 from Russia. They also order a batch of Su-35 fighters from Russia, but, but they never got these ones.

They didn't have these ones, Carl.

They haven't been delivered. And this is a reason Iranian airspace was wide open for Israelis, because they don't have the Air Force, they don't have the air defense system. And, and so, I mean, for whatever reasons they're not delivered, I mean, you may be just because Russia right now is so focused on Ukraine. Yeah, and their military-industrial complex is geared towards the Ukraine conflict right now. It might be a production bottleneck, it might be— there might be some deal that's being worked out, uh, you know, I, I don't know. Like some people say maybe this is what— maybe why, uh, exchange for the West only sent the secondhand F-16s to Ukraine for whatever reason, you know, there was piled up of the air defense system and Air Force deliver, uh, and plane delivery to Iran. Then following that, Iranian defense minister made his first trip to China to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, uh, meeting. And that is important because there is now— while wide— many widespread talks of Iran is in talks with China to acquire J-10C fighter jets. And Chinese defense systems. Because especially after witnessing the aftermath of the Pakistani-Indian conflict—

that is correct—

place recent, it really kind of show, you know, how Chinese weapon system can be cost effective. Because those J-10Cs, they only cost like $40 to $50 million apiece. Yeah, you know, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's cheapest in its category, but they will— with enough J-10C, Iran can deal with Israel's F-16 effectively.

If they were able— if the Pakistanis were able to shut down the Rafales, which Rafales for France considered one of the top in the world, and the Chinese missiles were just zoomed at it, it make more sense for the Iranians to go ahead and I'm not saying they should forgo about Russia, but you have a more affordable weapon from China, more technical advanced and reliable weapon you can count on.

Well, I mean, they already pay for their Su-35. Russia just need to deliver them. They're still waiting on the delivery. Yeah, they already pay for the Su-35. Their pilots have been trained on the Su-35, so they're literally just waiting for delivery. So I think Right now they're probably working with Russia to try to help, try to, uh, you know, help fast-track those delivery of those systems. And but Russia's, uh, you know, his— their supplying of Iran, they also is tempered by their consideration of the Russia relationship with Israel and the United States, right? Whereas China, there's less, less, less, uh, inhibition on China's parts because Uh, people were saying, well, if China supplies, wouldn't they have to consider the diplomatic fallout supplying weapons to Iran? You know, what about, uh, China's relationship with Israel and United States? Well, first, let's talk about United States. You know, what relationship? The US is still supplying arms to Taiwan. So, so there's, there's no reason for China not to supply Iran as long as United States keep on supplying weapons. US just uh, finally deliver some F-16s to Taiwan, which Taiwan has paid like a decade ago. They just finally deliver. And, and again, US has a production issue. They have a production— like I said, US can print money as much as they want, but they cannot print fighter jets, ships, and missiles. Um, the US economy has been so financialized, but when you want to fight a kinetic war, what you actually need is still industrial capacity, which US simply don't have anymore.

Don't have that.

And, and when it comes to China's relationship with Israel, so back in the 1980s and 1990s, Israel was a vector through which China could access Western military technology, you know, because Israel, they have full access to US military technology. So Israel was a back door for China to get their hands on those US military technology. But back in around 2000, US put a stop to that, um, which kind of goes to show maybe the, you know, we can't really say Israel control United States because on the, on the thing that really matters to US, US can actually put its foot down and tell Israel, no, no, no, you cannot sell weapons to China anymore. And it stopped, and it stopped. The— so, so, so from 2000 to 2010s onward, that door has been closed. So, so China no longer needs Israel to get hands on Western, Western tech. And, and by, by the way, and so, so, so, so Israel needs China far more than China needs Israel. So, so that's not even— that, that, that's not even a factor. The only factor China may need to consider is to balancing out, uh, the GCC, the, the other Arab countries, because, you know, Saudis, they might have concern. But again, that's not really a big concern because China can offer the same defense package to the Saudi as well. I mean, Saudi is more than welcome to buy J-10C for themselves. And, and there's actually talks of some Arab countries um, some Middle Eastern country, not Pakistan, that's also in talks with China to acquire J-35 as they became, uh, as they became, uh, in production.

Yeah.

And, and, and, and, and so, so that— I, I— so I'm guessing, you know, uh, you know, could be anyone— Egypt, Saudi Arabia, um, and this is actually—

is Egypt, Carl, is Egypt. Egypt already requested. Egypt, to my knowledge, the Saudis sort of refrained from that, even though there were talks. I remember when I was in Saudi Arabia, I came across back then an information that was like alarming at the time. Why the Saudis are talking to the Chinese for that? So I will see it more with the Egyptians than I'll see it with the Saudis at this moment. So things could change, of course.

That makes sense because, yeah, Chinese Air Force recently was in Egypt doing a joint drill with the Egyptian Air Force. They flew over the pyramids. I saw the videos, it was quite impressive. So, so Egypt is thinking about J— look, they're looking at J-10C and J-35. So that's something that Iran also need to think about, you know, because with the J-10C they can counter the Israeli F-16s. With J-35, they will be able to deal with Israeli F-35s.

That's correct.

Can you imagine the copian if a J-35 shot down an F-35? That will be, you know, that will be the day. I, I, I look forward to the day when a Iranian J-35 shoot down an Israeli F-35.

That, that will be the You know what, Carl? You know when this conflict started and I shared it with the community, I told them that, Mike, my word on this, if this to keep going on this trajectory, this will be the final nail on the coffin for the US and Israeli partnership in the region. In other words, the Middle East or West Asia will never be the same because Iran is going to respond and Iran's responding is going to change the equation. And, and at that time everybody's saying, no, no, no, no, the Israelis will wipe out the Iranians. I said, no, no, you guys don't realize what Iran is doing. Iran is not playing all its cards. This is why the Israelis are asking, have been asking for a halt, because they were nervous. And you are right when you said earlier about the economic devastation. This morning I got a confirmation that so far its economy has lost about $5 billion. This is for the Israeli part. So, so it became clear as to where things are going.

And Iran has been very restrained. They carry out a very calibrated missile campaign. Look, look, they, they— what they could have done so much worse, you know. They really want to hit the— they're actually very careful not to hit the jugular of Israel because they know if they do something that will collapse if, if the Israel's imminent collapse is visible, then Washington for sure will enter the war decisively on the side of Israel because US simply will not allow Israel to collapse. So, so Iran, you know, you really want to collapse Israel, they could hit the Israeli desalination plant because 80 to 90% of Israel's water come from a handful of desalination plants. You know, Israel can just, uh, Iran can just send their missiles that way. Yeah, water, no water, no water. That, you know, Israel would not be able to function after a week without water. And, and they could, they, they refrain from hitting Israeli nuclear power plant, right? I mean, like, they, they're perfectly within their capability to do so because, uh, you know, people will say, oh, hitting civilian infrastructure, that's a war crime. Well, guess what Israel has been doing for the whole year? And, and this is actually NATO playbook when they went, uh, when they bombed Serbia back during the Kosovo War. They, they bombed the civilian power plants, uh, water plants, bridges, radio, radio tower, television station, you know, and the Chinese embassy. And the Chinese embassy. And the Chinese embassy. So, so So, so Iran, if they did that, you know, there's the, the, the, the, the, the Israel would expect no sympathy, of course. Yeah, right. I mean, like, for sure, like, if anything, people will be cheering. But Iran refrained from doing that because they know if they hit the nuclear power plant, if they hit the, uh, water desalination plant, yeah, you are— that would definitely trigger a very strong U.S. response because U.S. would not allow Israel to collapse. So they— what they— Iran did is they are punishing Israel by making it suffer pain, a lot of pain, but not to the point where Israel will— it will cause imminent Israeli collapse. So, uh, so yeah, that's— whereas Iran, because simply because a larger country is more spread out, more population, it can take much, much more blows than Israel could ever could. Um, and so, so, so right now is Iran— it also exposed a couple weaknesses in Iran's defense, which is their air defense and their air force. I, I imagine that right now it's their top priority to rebuild those capabilities, you know, before the next round. And, and for Israel's side, right now I bet they're scrambling to replenish their missile interceptors because they're running dangerously low and And I don't know how that's going to be resolved because they depend on United States. And let's face it, US still have their own resource constraint. You know, they still have— they need to figure out how they're going to get enough critical minerals to make those results.

Liking this video so far? Don't just be a watcher. Go ahead and hit the like, share, and subscribe button. And don't forget to tap the bell so you will not miss any of my videos or live streams. This way you will be supporting a channel that stands for the truth and objective reporting. The choice is yours. Thanks for your support. All right, let's move on to another line of questions. You mentioned India earlier. I'm going to address that later on with you about especially vis-à-vis BRICS. We'll talk about that later. But there is one particular aspect that I want to really, uh, I, and I saved this for you, Carl, because I knew I was going to reach out to you, uh, towards the end of the month, and especially when the conflict started. And I wanted to get your take into this. And this one has to do with the sort of the reports that been emerging in both London and Washington that China has been providing weapons to Iran. And, and the lies that's been. And it was none other— and I digged into this to find out. First of all, one person is this one right here. Her name is Sophia Yang. She is of a Chinese descent. She works as an international correspondent for The Telegraph. And it was a lie based on what she's saying. Basically what she was saying is that there were a flight coming out of China to Iran, a cargo planes carrying weapons and so forth. First of all, I did track some flights that goes on a weekly basis and they make stop in Turkmenistan. I remember when I used to fly on behalf of the US government, we will always make stops in Baku. That was normal. We'll stop there for 3 hours, refill. Some of us will step outside in a tarmac, just take walks, then we'll take off and keep going. So that was one on that end. Second one was a particular clip from— and I'm gonna share it with the— I'm gonna share it with you guys if you allow me here, uh, briefly. Uh, let me get to it. For none other than Gordon Chang, that's the one who said— let's take a listen here, guys. Okay, oh, pardon me here. So, all right, let me share screen and I'll get your take on it, uh, Carl. So there we go.

Meanwhile, Russia and China both condemning the US operation Midnight Hammer, uh, the US adversaries proposing that the UN Security Council adopt a resolution for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire in the Middle East. Officials in Beijing The move, quote, "seriously violates the purposes and principles of the UN Charter and international law and exacerbates tensions in the Middle East." Joining me now is Gatestone Institute senior fellow Gordon Chang. Gordon, interesting that China is coming out with all of these comments, no mention of the fact that they were a week away from having 9 nuclear bombs. Talking about—

Yes, and also—

International law.

Yes, and also no mention that China made sure that Iran had everything it needed to build a nuclear device, which is a lot, directly to, to Iran. Also, um, they armed Pakistan, and then Pakistan merchandised it to Iran with the knowledge and approval of China. And I think the United—

that's a lie. That is a lie. First of all, Iran was never closer to having 9 bombs. Second, China never authorized or even talked to the Pakistanis to send or give in, in the— whatever. Here is what I want to get your take on, Carl, is when you see reports coming from Washington like this one and the reports by Sophia Yang on, on The Telegraph— by the way, guys, I'm gonna put the link for you in the chat box, and you can read the article yourself later on. So, uh, when you see stuff coming like this, what does it signal to you? What does it tell you?

Well, it tells me the US have a China Derangement Syndrome, right? Like, you, you, you have articles like saying like, uh, US need to win this war in Middle East against Iran because of China, because you know, 89% of Iranian oil goes to China, so this will hurt China by cutting them off on cheap Iranian oil. This is, this is all crazy talk. Um, well, first of all, I— let me address that, the Sophie Yang piece. You know, Sophie Yang is, uh, you know, he's— she's ethnic Chinese. She is what, uh, um, journalist Yasha Levine would call a weaponized immigrant. You know, this is what the empire does. They weaponize those diaspora immigrants, you know, present you with like a Chinese face. And that's what Gordon Chen is. He, he, he's the most marketable part of him is because he's a Chinese face talking about all those anti-China talking points. So they can plausibly say, you know, you know, we're not racist. Look, it's, it's Gordon Chen. And, uh And Gordon Chan has been failing upwards since 2001 when first he published Coming Collapse of China. You know, he has been updating the dates on the coming part.

And about the collapse, about the collapse of China, I've been hearing it for over a decade now.

I mean, I mean, for Gordon Chan, it's almost a quarter of century, right? He did that in 2001, and, uh, and And, uh, you know, you're right, the, the flight was a regular flight from China that makes one stop in, in Turkmenistan and on its way to Luxembourg.

That is correct.

And, and everybody, like, people actually had to, to verify that. They even find the flight number and everything. Yeah, it was just a regular flight, like a passenger flight. Nothing, no, no, nothing mysterious about it. And, and again, they're trying to paint, uh, uh, you know, this is kind of the, the US derangement syndrome. Now, now US based all its foreign policies based on, you know, opposing China, contain China, whether it's in Middle East, Africa, Ukraine. You know, you see all these talks about we must win in Ukraine to stop China from taking over Taiwan, right? I mean, like, this is, this is, this is nuts. And, and, uh, you know, you know, but, but you know what, I— the, the, the prevalent internet meme in China is that Gordon Chan is actually a Chinese spy. You know, he, he's— his job is to spread this info to Americans so that Americans will consistently underestimate China because he keep on saying China will collapse. And, but, but, you know, this Gordon Chan is selling the typical right-wing talking You know, China is, is simultaneously collapsing and yet threatening, right? This is like literally like a fascist talking point about their enemy. The enemy is always both collapsing and threatening at the same time. And, and that's, that's what they say about China. Uh, it has no, no relationship to, to, to, to reality. Uh, so, so China, for its, its part Yeah, you know, it's, it's right now, um, it's obviously China do not want Iran to fail. You know, let's make that clear. China do not want Iran to fail the same way China do not want Russia to fail. This is the reason why China is taking in 80— more than 89% of Iranian oil, uh, export, even though Iranian oil is under international sanction. And the way this was achieved is by, um, you know, this is actually— it's by the so-called Dark Fleet. These, these unregistered ships, they will go to Iran, they load up the ship, and they, they change their, the, the, the, their load and unload in some other location, like in some Southeast Asian countries, and then they rebrand those oil as coming from elsewhere, from Malaysia or Indonesia, and they sent them to private independent refineries in China, mostly locally in Shandong Province. Now those, those private independent refineries, sometimes called the teacup refineries, they do that because they are willing to risk a U.S. sanction for the margin because they get the Iranian oil at a 15% discount.

Down.

And for them, that's enough margin for them to risk sanction. And those, those, those private Chinese refineries, because their market is China, you know, they don't have much exposure overseas. So they—

you—

China— U.S. sanctions can't touch them because they're— all their transaction is done in Chinese yuan. So U.S. financial sanction, that doesn't impact them. They, their customer is Chinese. They're selling in China, the conductor business, in yuan. And, and, and so this, that's where 89% of Iranian oil goes, uh, you know, how it ends up in China. But if, but if Chinese government really wants to, they could easily shut that down. But they didn't. They chose like, yeah, look, look the other way. Um, even though those independent private, uh, refinery actually compete with China's state-owned, um, oil, oil companies, because, you know, they're actually competitors, you know, for the, the, the state-owned oil company like Sinopec. They probably want to shut down those operations because they're competing with them. But, but China decided to look the other— Chinese government is looking the other way, allowing those private refiners to take Iranian oil because they understand this is a very important lifeline for Iran. So that's how China supports, uh, you know, just like the same way China supported Russia. But they— the China would not like, you know, flying weapons into Iran in the middle of the conflict. That, that— I mean, I mean, a lot of people are saying, oh, why, why didn't China and Russia do more to help? First of all, you are, you know, you don't need to speak on behalf of Iran. If Iran need help, they can ask help. They would have asked for it from, from Iran and from Russia and China. They didn't because on their own, Iran can handle Israel. Now Israel, they, they can handle Israel on their own. Like the, the, the only, um, you know, scenario where Iran would need help if US directly gets involved, um, then— but, but, but, you know, before that happen, it's Like, there's— there's— Iran is not in a hurry to get help from— they're not panicking. They're like— the problem is a lot of the BRICS and the multipolarity supporters, they, they, they, they get easily spooked and panic because they, in their mind, they still think US is this powerful Captain America, invincible, you know, that will, that will stomp on all opposition. But You need to understand, US is just like, like any other country. They also operate under resource and supply constraint, and there's real serious resource constraint on the US Empire at the moment when they're essentially involving a two-front war. You know, there's still a proxy conflict that's raging in Ukraine right now, and, and, and, and the fact that they had to shuffle around their air defense system from Ukraine to Israel to tell That tells you they do not have resources for two-front war. And, and this is why, um, you know, Iran, they, they, they, they got Israel handled on their own, no problem. And, and what happened with the US involvement, it turns out it's a, it's a very typical Trump enterprise, you know, like he just, he just— it's— this is because this is precedent for this too. In the Trump first term, that's exactly what he did, launched cruise missiles against Syria when he was under a lot of pressure by the deep state to do that. He just fired a bunch of missiles and he claimed victory. I did it, I did it! And, and you change very little facts on the ground, right? But, but for Trump, it's all about PR. And Trump is unpredictable, but he's so predictable in his ways. This is why I called it like, dude, this guy is gonna do a symbolic strike and claim victory. And, and And then because for him, you know, it's more important to, uh, deport immigrants in Los Angeles than to deal with Middle East quagmire stuff. Um, and, and so you— and I think you're right. And, and this is, uh, people in the Middle East are also going to wake up to the fact that, um, you know, for the decades, assumption was with the US support, Israel is kind of unstoppable, is going on rampage. But now, not anymore. The first time, yeah, first, first time it show Israel cannot do its aggression with that with impunity. For the first time, they're getting missile rained on them on Tel Aviv and in Haifa, and, uh, and, and in, in a serious number. So, so this will, uh, this is why Israel Defense Ministry put a statements like, oh, our war with Iran is not over, but we need to shift our focus on Gaza. You know, like they're, they're, they're focusing on their core competence right now. They're, they're, that's genocide, right? Genocide. That's their core competence. They can't, they can't really fight against a nation that can fight back.

Defenseless people. They don't have anything to fight with. And that's why shame on the Arab leaders because maybe they need another Arab Spring. And, and, and as I said, guys, I will do a, a special, special, uh, video for you just regarding this one here. So now before I'll move on to a next one, uh, Carl, I want just to say one thing regarding the oil. About China. I'm sure you're aware that Mr. Trump said now China can buy oil from Iran. It's like, who the heck are you to give the green light to countries to buy oil from whomever they want? So, but that's just, uh, on a side note, I wanted to mention this. Now, on a serious note, and I want to mention this, uh, to you, Carl, and, and just get your take on it regarding the conflict that took place and still taking place in the Middle East, or West Asia, that is. Is this now, in your opinion, a defining moment for China regarding its role on the global stage? When I say global stage, I am referring to the global order, because China weighing in on something like this will have a tremendous consequence in either direction.

Well, I think it obviously shows, even though the fact that those people, a lot of people are screaming for China to step in is because, uh, you know, because everyone, uh, realized China can make a difference. They can tilt the power, the power balance decisively in one direction. And, and this is why, um, you know, people before, people say, oh, why, why did Xi Jinping deviate from Deng Xiaoping's policy? You know, Deng Xiaoping's policy had been hide your strength, buy your time, you know. Why is China, you know, suddenly abandoned that? I'm like, look, when you are the world's largest producing power, we are the world's largest manufacturing superpower, where can you hide? How can you pretend you are like, you are like a, a helpless third world country? You can't, you can't hide your strength because your strength is plenty obvious for everyone to see. Um, yeah, and, and, and, and right now, um, China is progressing on all fronts— in technology, in the military hardware, in economy. Uh, this is why there's a lot of panic in Washington, because they, they really see China threatening the, the, the dominant U.S. position worldwide. Uh, but the, but the, the all the response they try to put a stop to that, try to stop China's progress, hasn't worked. And this is why they keep on giving airtime to people like Gordon Chan, because Gordon Chan tell them fairy tales that they like to hear, which is China is collapsing. It's a terrible, bad China that's very threatening, that's trying to do harm to us, but don't worry, they're collapsing. And then because Gordon Chan tells them what they want to hear This is why he has been, you know, on CNN, on Fox News for 24 years, even though none of, you know, for, uh, he, he has suffered no real, real world consequences for all his bullshit. Because, uh, you know, even though he turned out to be wrong years after year, just because he is selling copium, that's what US excels right now. The only one product Only one area where US still lead China in the production is a production of copium.

Wow, that's very, very interesting. I mean, yeah, I mean, even my days in Washington and I was like, you know, what is this guy spewing nonsense? And I was like, you know, even the argument I was made— I made back then, Carl, and I kid you not, I still have a good friend still alive that I talked to back in 1991 want to start a conversation. And I said, you know, uh, you know, do people in Washington aware of what lies ahead in the next 25 years? They're like, what are you talking about? It's like, you don't see what's coming, do you? And then they didn't get it. So you kind of— when people couldn't understand the basics, you can get into some depth conversation with, because you realize you're gonna just be wasting your energy. It might be useful to use it for something else.

David, in 1991, that was the year of The End of History. That's what Francis Fukuyama published, The End of History.

That is correct.

This is the ultimate end of the human evolution, is America, with America sitting on top of the world. Uh, that's what people seriously bought into, you know, back then. He was, uh, but again, that was also a comfort-fortifying, uh, fairy tale. And now, now we just We're just seeing that right now.

Yeah. You know what surprised me of all this? Like the likes of Fukuyama and even Gordon Chang, they don't have the audacity nor the courage to come forward and say, you know what, I was wrong, or I am wrong. I mean, we all make mistakes. You know, you could have your analysis sometimes off, not to a degree, but you know what you're talking about. But when you make a mistake, it's a sign of courage when you step forward and say, you know what, I made a mistake, my assessment was off, or— but not to keep spewing the lies, which—

that's why it didn't make sense to me when they said about the, the lie is how Gordon Chan makes rent, you know, that's how, how you get paid.

Well, that's a pathetic way.

Pay for that.

That is a pathetic way, Carl, you know. Better find something decent instead of just lying about all that stuff. So anyway, I want to tackle one last thing before I'll check if there's— by the way, guys, if you have any question for Carl, I will answer some Super Sticker questions. If you have one for Carl, we'll take that one. But let me share this screen here, Carl, and I want to take your insight on it. Take a look here. This, it says, Xi to skip BRICS meeting because Brazil to host state dinner for Modi. I am, I am I am floored when I read this the first time that Brazil has lost its mind by hosting a state dinner for India, which didn't make any sense to me whatsoever.

I mean, this is bilateral relation between Brazil and India. And I think China is not that petty. China is not that petty. They will not cancel a visit by a leader just because of something like that. Yeah, this is actually reminding me what India did recently at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. India refused to endorse a joint statement because it failed to include this clause that India want to insert about terrorism, you know. But, but the, the terrorism clause is really not, not about terrorism because Shanghai Cooperation, uh, uh, Organization originally was founded by Russia, China, and the Central Asian Republics to fight terrorism. That was the original founding mission. So what, what India really wanted to do, he— they wanted to use this forum to cast shade on Pakistan, right? Because India accused Pakistan of supporting terrorists, that, that latest terrorist attack in Kashmir, again without evidence, without evidence. So they want to use that, that forum, which by the way, Pakistan was also a Shanghai SCO member. They want to use that to, to, to, to, to, to diss Pakistan. And of course, you know, they decide not to include that, um, and, and, and, and India decide to reject this joint, uh, joint, joint statement. So that's kind— that's pity. That's pity. I mean, I, I, you know, I don't know why Xi Jinping, uh, didn't cancel. I mean, uh, my, my, in my first guess will be more maybe a health reason, uh, you know, for something like that. Uh, but, but we don't know, you know.

I, I don't know.

I'm not, I'm not privy to, to, to, to, uh, to, to, to Xi Jinping's health checks. So, um, it's, uh, this is, uh, but this, that does show China's importance, you know, people paying attention. If, if China was not present and then people start to speculate Uh, and speaking about China's importance, there was a recent article in the Foreign Affairs magazine called Southeast Asia Is Starting to Choose: Why the Region Is Leaning Toward China. You know, I have said so many times on your show, uh, David, that, yeah, that when Kishore Mubani was telling United States, don't force us to choose don't force us to choose between US and China. What he's really saying is, if you really, really come down hard on us, we'll have to be forced to choose China because that's where Southeast Asia's economic destiny lies. And, and right now, this is— now this is not just me talking about it. Now it's in the Foreign Affairs magazine. Um, Southeast Asia is now forced to choose, and they chose China. Because no question United States is not offering economic development. The only— the best they could do is military bases and sell you weapons. And, and for a lot of the Southeast Asian countries right now, economic development is the top priority. And that's an area where, uh, you know, they need China to, to, to, uh, to work with them. And, and China is more than willing to, to, to, to help. You know, this is why Indonesia now have high-speed train running at 350 kilometers per hour, whereas the LA, the California high-speed rail is still a pipe dream. You know, like that, that's not the, the, the California high-speed rail was planned around the same time when the Chinese high-speed rail system, uh, you know, I remember this because back in 2008 I lived in Los Angeles I was dating a Japanese woman who worked at the Japanese consulate in Los Angeles, and her job was to host the Japanese businessmen who came to LA to discuss with the government of California on Japanese participation in the, in the high-speed rail project. Well, 2008, that's when China will first start building their high-speed rail. Look at the difference, that's for sure.

As well, well, speaking of that, that about the South Asia shifts and so forth, for what, uh, Kishore was mentioning also, uh, my good friend, uh, Dr. Dashawn Fank, uh, he was in a panel, he was a moderator in the panel, and this one they were talking about the, uh, the tectonic shifts in the global talent chain. You know, we're talking about even technology, you know, and I couldn't agree more that, you know, as they wrote, and I quote here, there is no doubt with the convoluted 21st century geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape, there is no doubt technology and geopolitics are impacting Asian higher education, both its landscape and operations. So they are moving into the direction. By the way, guys, if you are interested in watching this video, I'm gonna put it for you in the chat box here. You can check it out later on. Very, very informative to give you an idea why we have a problem here in America now with the exodus of the brains. A lot of scientists of Chinese descent are returning back to China. A lot of people are considering leaving. I am one of those and plan to consider teaching in China, not in the US. Not in Europe. You know, I've kind of made up my mind on that. So just a matter of time. So, but there is this massive exodus of the brains that is now moving. I think it's becoming clear, Carl, where things are headed. So it's, it's, it's just the way it is, and there is no other way of expressing it. You know, the question that I've always wondered, how will the United States deal with this new change in the global order? You know, China is at the top whether we like it or not. It just matter now of whether we're gonna cooperate with China or whether we're gonna go into a fight. Well, it became clear we couldn't defeat the Houthis. What makes us think we're gonna defeat the Chinese? The Chinese also became clear to them, we can see now what we can do to the Americans if they ever— because it became clear So choice is ours now, I believe. So, final word, Carl, I'll give you the last word before I'll take some questions from the audience here. Where, where, how do you see this play out regarding the, the, the changes in the Middle East? But mainly, how do you see the role of China in really guiding? Because we are already in a multipolar order. There is no if. We are already in it. And how do you see the role of China into navigating this new trajectory?

Well, you, you see that already, you know, even Saudis, they're hedging, right? You know, they, they're hedge— I mean, Saudi has one of the closest ties with the United States traditionally. There's— that was the foundation of the petrodollar. But they're the ones that's, that's hedging, you know. But all the talks about them talking to Chinese, buying weapon system right now, I think that's just a way to remind Washington, say like, look, we have options, you know, if you don't take care, take account of our position, there's— we can still turn to China. So they're still using China as kind of bargaining chips for their relationship with Washington. Um, and but China is already becoming much more important in this region, and I think it In other, you know, Southeast Asia, it's already the only country in Southeast Asia that, um, that still, you know, prefer United States is, uh, you know, at least at the top level, leadership level, is only country is Philippines. You know, Philippines is the only country that stood out, uh, but, but the rest of Southeast Asia has already kind of chosen their, their side. Um, and, and you— and U.S., despite its talks about pivot to Asia, uh, we're talking about pivot to East Asia, it's, it's all rhetorics. You know, if you look at the actual military deployment, they're already retreating. United States is already retreating from the first island chain to the second island chain. If you feel like— take a historical perspective Back in 1970s, during the height of Vietnam War, the whole South China Sea was American Lake back then, you know, because U.S. had military bases in the, in the Philippines, in Vietnam, on both sides of South China Sea. And, and, and they had China— United States actually stayed two aircraft carrier group permanently in South— at that time, a permanent year-round rotation in South China Sea. And this was, uh, uh, that's now, now they, they, they try to insert themselves, you know, doing this kind of irrelevant, uh, navigate freedom of navigation patrol. But that's all for show, that's all PR, because they also realize their position within the first island chain, which runs from Japan, Okinawa, Philippines, and, uh, Taiwan, it's unattainable, unattainable. Um, and, and, and recently China actually sent two aircraft carrier attack groups to, to do their own freedom of navigation patrol around Guam to remind United States we, we now have freedom to roam around the second island chain. Um, and, and this is the reality that, that US, uh, is coming to grip with. This is why even Marco Rubio has admit Now we're living in a multipolar world. So I think there was still, um, there was still a lot of rhetoric about pivoting to China and contain China, but the, the capability is not there. Um, and, and if you look at the time window that the U.S. military says they're gonna— there might be a war with China, um, the first estimate was surfaced in in a 2023 report when the US general said there might be war with China in 2 years.

Yeah, in 2025.

I remember that. That's this year. That's this year. Well, I— well, we still have 6 months, but I don't think that's gonna happen. Okay, I don't think that's gonna happen. And later the advisor, you know, move the date to 2027, right? And I think this is going to be like a, like a Gordon Chan project, you know, how Gordon Chan moving the date of coming collapse with China, they're gonna move— keep on moving the date of calming conflict with China every 2 years, right? And because they have to. So I think this is, uh, because, uh, you know, one of the reasons those dates even get floated in the first place, because a lot of US Pentagon planners, they realize, have a very short time window to contain China. Um, but I don't think that right now we— I think we already passed that window. I think that window has already closed. That's for sure. Right now, right now, I mean, like, China is already has, uh, they, they reach the escape velocity. Uh, it's like you— there's not much US can do at this point to contain China, uh, especially when the empire still is enmeshed in Ukraine, in Middle East, like Trump, his instinct is to extricate United States from the Ukraine conflict, but he wasn't able to do it despite saying he would do it in 24 hours.

Phone call.

Yeah, 24 hours, one phone call. He can't, he can't do it. And, uh, and, and, and, and this is because the— after a while, the empire, it takes a life of its own, you know. All this bureaucracy, all the NATO bureaucracy, all the all these think tankers, their, their jobs, their career depends on it. And, and so it's a self-perpetuating machine. And, and so I think, uh, uh, we're gonna continue to see this kind of slow decline of the American Empire, uh, unfolding in our eyes. I, I don't, I don't think there will be a war with China, um, just because there's not— the capability is not there. US doesn't— like, one thing I agree with Mearsheimer is, uh, he said intention doesn't matter, it's all about capability. Well, guess what? The US capability to do mischief right now is decreasing, uh, and it's decreasing in relativity, uh, to, to China year by year. So, um, I think we're good. I think we're good. I mean, maybe not so good if people live in the US, but I think for the rest of the world, I'm positive. I'm fairly positive for the intermediate and long-term future.

Yeah, well, that is— I mean, you hit the nail on the head, Carl, as far as how things are here in the US. And I look at it from the academic perspective. You know, a lot of individuals that I know, talk to, and the consideration of teaching elsewhere is becoming more evident. So it's just because the education system in itself is not conducive anymore. So anyway, guys, I'm going to put the link for you right here on the screen, but I'm going to put it in the chat box for you to go check out Carl's YouTube channel. Make sure to subscribe there. I'm going to put it right there in the chat box for you. I am also going to show you his— Carl's Twitter handle. X. I follow him on X, so make sure you follow him on that. He posts some stuff. By the way, Carl, thanks for posting the— about the verdict on the, uh, what was he, governor? The guy who got involved in bribes in China for stealing. You know, I wish, I wish my country has a fair justice system like that. I really wish.

Yeah, he got convicted to life sentence for taking $17 million in, uh, bribe. I'm like, dude, that's chump change for our US Congress people. If we go by that standard, the entire Congress will be wiped out, which will be good.

So yeah, let's say thank you to our, uh, key supporters here. Tom, you see, greetings to Carl, Za, and Dr. L from Canada. I will be visiting Beijing and Ningjiang in China from October 17th to October 24th. So you'll be missing the first week of the national holiday in China, a major holiday. By the way, you have about 500 million people traveling within China. That's a half billion people. Imagine what that's going to do to the economy. So, so, uh, safe travels to you. And thank you very much for your kind support. So, uh, Julia, I want to say thank you so much for your Super Sticker. Truly appreciate you, and it means a lot to us over here at the community. So, here you are. Go, go, Karza! Uh, here, local Carl lives in the Netherlands, is an avid supporter. And so I thank you so much, Harry, for your Super Sticker. And last one is from Rafael Legon, another avid supporter of the channel. Guys, pardon me, my take is she is getting tired of Putin timidity. She is tired of Putin not showing up, Putin kissing Trump, as China likes standing up men. So interesting comment.

Well, I, I think, and I— Russia has its own priority at this moment. Its priority is Ukraine. That, that's where all the Russia's focus is, is going to be.

And Russia's focus is regional now. So that is where— for Russia is—

exactly, exactly. Russia is focusing on upgrading its own military hardware, and it's, it's focusing on, uh, the, the new style of 21st century warfare. Because, like, really, the, the only 21st century war right now is is Ukraine. Like, they, they have way more experience now than, than the NATO forces because, you know, the whole drone affair that was evolved, that was just, you know, something that was never seen before. And, and that's what we're gonna— Russia gonna be focused on for the immediate future. Um, yeah, I think China understands that. I mean, China has its own priorities. China's, China's own priorities focused on its economic development. And of course, and they will continue to do that. Um, like, like, they— people need to understand, you know, when China and Russia are actually their upholders of the post-World War order, it's the United States that's trying to destroy it right now. U.S. is the one that helped to build the post-World War order, but, but U.S. government finds that increasingly is not working to its advantage. So now he's trying to destroy it, try to replace it with the so-called rule-based international order, where the rule is whatever they say it's going to be, right? So, so this is, uh, this is a new— this is the world we're entering into.

Yeah, very interesting. Well, thank you all for your kind super stickers and support for the channel. Carl, I can't thank you enough, my friend, for really carving out time for us here to share your knowledge with the community. They always get excited once they know you are coming And you know, by now, the end of the month is time with Carl Zah. So, so I, on behalf of the community, I say thank you so much and I look forward to our conversation next time. You take care, my friend.

Thank you, David. All right.

All right, guys, I hope you enjoyed. Carl is always very, very informative to listen to. And, and, and that's why I usually cannot wait for the end of the month to have this overall conversation on a host. Of issues. That's what's, what's important. So remember to join me tomorrow for the community conversation, and I look forward to seeing you tomorrow. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, guys. Bye-bye.