Putin's Visit to China Could Revive Siberia 2 Pipeline Project!

All right, hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Excited to be with you as always. I hope you had a good and peaceful weekend and you just chill out a little bit and you are off to a good start for the new week. Just part of how life goes. So, uh, let me see who is here first, say hi to everybody in the community., and then just go from there. Willie Homan, as always, good to see you. Barry, Phil, good to see you. Taiwan Still, James, James Ferry, uh, good to see you. Uh, who is Truth Seeker? Hello to you as well. Hamed City from England, good to see you. John Smith in New Zealand, good to see you. Riza Fukuda, good to see you. Farhad Razavi, here you are. Good to see you as well. I got an interesting topic for you. So, uh, it's the upcoming visit. Of course, I put in the title May. I put May because it's not, it's not confirmed. I can just assume. This is one thing you learn about. So for something like this, of course, no dates has been given regarding the upcoming visit of the Russian President Vladimir Putin to China. So yes, I put May visit. We know it's going to move forward, assuming everything works out. Nonetheless, I can't— that's usually how it works. Same thing, I noticed, uh, some of you made some comments about the, uh, what do you call it, when I put the title, uh, as to mentioning Let me get one comment here. It's worth just chatting about because sometimes that's how we learn and it's a part of— to me, that's the whole idea for why we are here. We're here to learn from each other. So simple as that. It's the idea of when sometimes you put a possessive word, when you put the apostrophe S, it will describe the noun of what's coming into the sentence. So to some, when they say, uh, when they see rather Putin's Russia, they think it has to be the reverse— Russia's Putin. No, it's Putin's Russia, because the possessive word describes what comes into the sentence. It's just grammar and all that stuff. So that's why I put it there. And, and I understand, I understand. So anyway, let's, let's get in into what we're gonna be talking about today. As I mentioned Putin's— President Putin, that is— upcoming visit to China this month. No specific dates for security reasons. You all know how it works. Uh, but it's not about all that. It's about the, the significance of it, what the message is there. And those are the questions that I prepared for you guys. Here are the question here, or the questions here, as my— how significant is this trip? Because you think about what's going on around the world Second, is there a link for this trip to the Arctic projects? And I will detail for you as to where China is regarding those projects. Uh, third question is, will President Xi— Xi, rather— reassure, uh, the Russian president as far as the support and partnership of China? And the fourth is the optics of it. Why? Because it comes on the heel of, uh, uh, the Russian president's winning his fifth term in office, uh, for another 6 years till about 2030. If I did write in a book back then, when I wrote my book about, uh, uh, about, uh, Russia, that, uh, most likely you will see the Russian president till about 2030. You know, it's not that I— it's kind of it became clear to me as to what the Russians is gonna prefer, a strong leadership. That is the reason why I went ahead with that conclusion. And I was like, well, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. So far I'm proven, proven right. So anyway, let's, let's get in into our conversation here. And before I'll do this, let me do a headlines for you. I have two, actually three, but two main ones that you need to know about. Okay, where is the first picture? Uh, here is of course the upcoming, uh, visit of, uh, the Russian President Vladimir Putin to China. So here's the first one. The first headline I'm going to share with you is that the Russian president decided to dismiss, uh, Sergey Shoygu, the, the, the previous defense minister and appoint instead Andrei Belousov. That's the one you see on the image here. He's on the right, that's Andrei Belousov, and on the left is Sergei Shoigu. Now, that doesn't mean Shoigu didn't do a good job or whatever. No, no, no, no. The Russian president had a different thinking, and the reason why he appointed Andrei Belousov as the new defense minister It's because the Russian president Vladimir Putin decided to appoint Sergey Shoigu as the Secretary of the National Security Council. It is a very powerful— I did talk about it in my book as far as the structure of the Russian Federation government. The National Security Council is the equivalency of what we have, the NSC. We do have our National Security Council as well. Andrey Borisov, the current defense minister, which by the way has to go through the parliament. He's a civil economist who's been previously serving as the deputy prime minister, but also in another capacity as the Russian president's economic advisor for several years. In other words, there is a trust, elements of trust over there. So now there is one aspect I need you to know as to why also the Russian president decided to appoint Sergey Shoigu as the head of the National Security Council. It is because Shoigu, by the way, has served as a defense minister since 2012, and because of his approach, uh, uh, to dealing— he's a, he's a civil engineer by trade, by training. He's, he's savvy. And actually, the success of Russia in Syria You know who gets credit for it is Sergey, uh, Shoigu. That's the one. So, but here is the change, the main one, the, the main, uh, element as to why, uh, the Russian president decide to appoint him is because, uh, Putin wants to put the defense spending to more scrutiny to ensure that the money is spent effectively. That is the reason why I wish we had something like that, because for us, corruption is so, uh, so massive in our system. So I don't shy away from saying it. Here's the second one, second headline, that is. This might, might surprise you a little bit, uh, this one has to do with Iraq. And what happened in Iraq is that Chinese companies won more contracts for oil and gas exploration than any other country. As a matter of fact, the, uh, the Iraqi oil minister, his name is, uh, Hayyan Abdul Ghani, said that the Chinese companies won 5 investments to explore oil and gas fields in Iraq on the second day of the licensing around to develop. That's when they give the bids. And so forth. But that's not the key. You know what the key is? Is that no major US oil company got any contract, even after the Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani, who was in Washington— and you all remember, guys, I did, uh, uh, I did a video for you about it. Let me put the link for you for those who might not have seen that, it is in the chat box. I put the link to the YouTube video that I did on the visit of the Prime Minister of Iraq, and I told you, was he summoned here? Well, guess what? During his visit, he met with US companies, oil companies, uh, regarding the contract, and he said no. So that's what was surprising. And the third element here, which I'm not going to talk— I'll just give you a heads up because I'm going to do a video for you. I'm just trying to confirm the information. This one has to do with Bangladesh, believe it or not. Well, guess what? Bangladesh, China's backed naval dock. In other words, China is going to be building a naval dock in Bangladesh. And why is this important? Because where is Bangladesh vis-à-vis Which country is Bangladesh closer to and concerned about? Can you type in, in a chat box which country is closer to Bangladesh and Bangladesh is concerned about? Let me see in the chat box if you— and this is why— oh, oh, Pardah, you got it! India! Karakolak, you got it! Indeed. Now India now saying Oh, they are not concerned about this, which is a lie. You and I know. And that's why I decided I'm going to do a video for you after I confirm some information. Then we'll see the security, uh, aspects of this particular dock in, uh, uh, Bangladesh. So, all right, let's get into our analysis here, addressing the importance of the upcoming visit of the Russian president to China. Big deal. Why is this big deal? Is because those two are more than just head of states. They are friends. Uh, uh, I still have that image there. I need to— let me remove that one. Little India. That was funny. Uh, they're more than just, uh— where is the picture? So right there, why is this important? Is because they are more than just head of state, as I mentioned. But, but this one is beyond just the partnership, beyond the friendship, beyond anything. It has also the strategic interpretation and the message that this trip is sending to the rest of the world, mainly the West, given what's going on. But there is one particular aspect that the Russian president is very concerned about, that he wants to address with his friend President Xi. And this one has to do with a pipeline project. And I'm going to detail a few things here in conjunction also, or in relation to what's going on in the Arctic. First, let me share a map with you of the Arctic. In general term here, and give credit to the World Atlas, of course. And just to put things in perspective, because Arctic is big, so let me show you right here. I know it doesn't show everything here, uh, it's just the screen is too big, but that's just to give you an idea of what, uh, uh, uh vis-à-vis the, uh, the talks about the Russian president vis-à-vis China's projects in the Arctic. That's why it's, it's important to understand this one here. So the idea that, uh, this pipeline— of course the Russian president is expected to address this particular aspect. Why? It's because this one has to do with Siberia 2 pipeline. This is the equivalency, guys, of Nord Stream One and Nord Stream 2, except that for the Siberia pipeline, it has not moved as fast as he was anticipated. Now the question we need to ask is, was it China just dragging its feet, or China thinking about something else, or China doesn't want to rush? I don't know the answer to that. All I know is that on many occasions to my knowledge, based on the reading that I've done, that the Russian president has always addressed this particular aspect. Because here is the thing, the progress regarding the Siberia 2 pipeline has been very slow. So, and of course, this one has to do with China coming under heavy scrutiny from both the US and the EU. So, and could this Maybe was slowing down the progress, maybe, maybe not. I am not certain of this yet. It'll become clear to me once the Russian president is in China, and we'll see what the joint statements, uh, will suggest to this. Well, one thing I know for sure is that this natural gas, or pipeline rather, you know, which designed to connect Russia And China, via which area? Do you guys know? If you ever had a chance to read up or research, whatever, which area do you believe, in your opinion, this pipeline is going to go through? And it's very, very crucial for you to know these aspects. Let me see the chat box here because it's very, very important. Uh, Siberia. It was coming from Siberia, Muslim River. You're right, it's coming from Siberia, but it's going to go through a particular area, uh, under China. No, not Ukraine, not Hungary. That's— oh, David King, you got it. David King is through Mongolia. Very, very crucial and important strategically. And geopolitically, of course. So that is the— because to me, in my opinion, this will suggest the idea— you all remember when both leaders, the Russian president and the Chinese president, stated in their joint statements back then that there is no limit to their friendship. This is to me the highlight of what a strategic partnership is. Is all about. So, and here is the also the other aspects of it, because this pipeline, once completed— Western media is saying if completed. I will say once completed, because the Chinese will not get involved in something and not complete it, because it will not bode well for the Chinese, and it would not look good for the Chinese. And I don't believe China will do that. China will complete the project There is just some strategic thinking to do moving forward. Here is the idea of it. Once completed, you know what it's going to do? It's going to divert now about 50 billion cubic meters, the equivalency of 1.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas per year to North China. That is significant. That is massive. This is why you are now realizing why the Europeans are losing economically. And President Xi, Xi's recent, recent visit to Europe was specific for specific reasons to those two countries. Besides France, it's to Hungary and Serbia for strategic reason, for strategic reason That is also tied to the big picture, and this is the big picture of it. Now, if China gets about 1.8 trillion cubic feet of gas on a yearly basis, sky is the limit. And this is why it's very important to understand, or to put it within the right, uh, the, the both the economic and the geopolitical framework to understand the significance of trip like this. So, okay, on one hand. On the second hand, this is on one, and I'm gonna detail more about China. The Russian president also, or the Kremlin that is, announced that the Russian president, while visiting China, he's gonna visit two other countries. Can you guys guess which two countries are? And again, it's just to engage you in the conversation here. I just would like to have your input. Two other countries in the region. And again, to me it's not a coincidence. It is not a coincidence. I, I know this for fact. In your opinion, which the two other countries are? Let me see the chat box here. Uh, oh, you got it, Vivian! You got it, uh, you got it, Vivian! Vivian got it first here. And also, who else got it here? Uh, Taiwan still. You said Mongolia. It's Vietnam. It's North Korea and Vietnam. Vivian got it here. But, but, but you, you, you— it's the significance of it. You know, North Korea is going to be playing a major role within the four alliance, the four countries that could possibly form an alliance. And you all know what those 4 countries are: Iran, North Korea, China, and Russia. To me, if this to move forward in a form of an alliance, NATO will stand no chance. The West will stand no chance given those 4 countries' military capabilities if that power is combined. I mean, just China and Russia together will suffice, but adding North Korea and Iran to the picture— and this is why it's important to understand the strategic importance of the visit. Now let's not be naive here, because the Russians will also be thinking in terms of how about if we kind of strengthen our ties also with Vietnam, because China is making a sort of progress regarding that relationship. And you all remember last year after the G20 where the US president went, went to Vietnam, of course. Now this is— why am I highlighting all this? To highlight to you the movements within a geopolitical chessboard. This is how it works. Countries will have to think in terms of the strategic interest and to pave the path for that one. Of course, the case of the visit of the Russian president to, uh, uh, China, because China is not a party to ICC, the International Criminal Court. As a matter of fact, there are 6 countries that are not a party to— in other words, they are not members of the ICC. Do you guys know Can you guess which countries are? And once again, it's just to get into the conversation here, and I will post the link for you later on in the description. So there are 6 countries that are not part of the ICC. Let me just see, uh, your input here. And this is again where the importance of, uh, uh, uh Uh, Alistair— oh, All-Star, I'm sorry, All-Star X. I will, I will answer your question later on. Let me, let me first move on with this one here. Uh, yeah, 6 countries. Do you— can you guys guess? Uh, the US is one, Israel is two. Okay, uh, North Korea is not part of all any of that stuff, so So you have the US, you have Israel, you have Qatar, you have Russia, China, and Libya. They are not— so in the case of, uh, we don't care about the others, we care about the two, uh, here, Russia and China. Well, because, uh, you all know about the warrant, the arrest warrant that's been issued on the Russian president, which by the way, it shows the, the, the hypocrisy of the ICC, uh, or, or not a hypocrisy, I'm sorry, I'll take this word back, the incompetence, to the point that now we threatening the ICC if they issued an arrest warrant for the Israeli Prime Minister. So that, that's, to me, it's beyond that. But anyway, it's beside the point. That is the whole idea of why the Russian president— it's not about the ICC, of course, but it's an added bonus, if I may use the term, ain't gonna be worrying about the unrest, whatever. So, but the trip, it's of economic and strategic purpose. That is the key to that, and I'll detail more as I move forward into this. Now we think about the picture of, uh, and I'm gonna bring, share some pictures with you here. Oh, Somebody at the back door, I guess. Anyway, uh, one thing has to do with the importance of China to Russia. And if you remember back then, I shared with you when I wrote in the book, and I asked you the question, I asked you the question when I shared with you some, uh, uh, uh, sort of, uh, uh, parts of what I analyzed back then. And I asked you the question, who's benefiting from this relationship the most? In other words, is it Russia or is it China? So I'll ask you the same question: who is benefiting the most from this relationship? Is it Russia or is it China, in your opinion? And if you can please just, uh, put either or in the chat box, I'd like to share your response with all of us so we can, we can learn more, because that's— there's a lot to Uh, okay, Truth Seeker, you're saying China is benefiting more. Okay, uh, Q70, you're saying China. Muslim Revert is saying both. Ramples01, China. Francis Tango, China. Master, Master 5, both. Mm Nasser, China. Megaphone, win-win, which means both. Thomas Smith, you're saying Russia. Okay. Uh, Riza Fukuda, you saying Russia, you know, but, but I'm still gonna have to ask, why do you guys think is Russia that is benefiting from this relationship more than China? I'm gonna provide you my, my input and you reach your own conclusion. So if I am to go with the assumption that is Russia is benefiting from, it will make one sense from two aspects. One is economic Why? Because with the sanctions imposed on Russia, China by itself can overcome all the sanctions that is imposed on Russia. Why? Because China is a big market. As a result, Russia will be benefiting from developing this partnership with the, with the Chinese. And when you take this into consideration from an economic perspective, As always, consider this, and I argued this back then, but I'm going to add more detail to you to put it in perspective. Russia and China have increased their trade going way back. I'm gonna take you back to 2016. That's when I argued in my book. Back then, it was about $70 billion in trade between the two countries. That's what it was back then, okay? That's what I argued back then. Then you fast forward to 2017, which is only a year later. It reached 80, almost $85 billion. In 2018, it reached $107 billion, okay? And in today, it is about $260 billion. This is where, if we are to go with that argument, that, that is Russia's benefiting, uh, more from this partnership from an economic perspective. I didn't even talk about the geopolitical aspects of it. One caveat you need to understand is that following Russia's military operations in Ukraine, guess what Russia end up doing? This is all from economic. It's using the renminbi, the yuan or RMB, is now used to settle about 75% of trade between Russia and China and 25% of its transactions with other countries, meaning using the Chinese currency. This also highlight another aspect from an economic perspective, is that with the sanctions, Russia is benefiting from using the Chinese currency instead of the dollar, but is also pushing other countries to a fast track and a wider de-dollarization. That begs us— that begs the question, why isn't, for example, the trade between India and Russia— because Russia was selling oil to India— why is India paying Russia in rupees? Which is useless to Russia. And this is again from an economic perspective. That's why I'm highlighting— for those who say, is Russia benefiting, you will be absolutely correct if we are to approach it from this aspect. From a geopolitical aspect, strengthening ties, military one that is, with, uh, with China makes perfect sense. And this one has to do with the idea of, uh, uh, the idea of the Chinese and the Russians getting involved into joint military, uh, uh, ventures or exercises of, of, of, of it. So here is the aspect that I am going to share with you, basically on what I argued, you know, analyzing both the, the, the, the, the Sino-Russian partnership because it will center on key strategic challenges that's going to be imposed on the United States. In other words, both countries geopolitically will push the US to the sideline, because that's the way I see it. And that in turn will have a significant impact on the US policy in Central Asia, for example, and the Pacific realm. The reason I'm saying all this, because you look at now— and I did the video for you, what, 3 or 4 days ago about the Philippines— why are you now going to be seeing Russia intentions in the South China Sea to prevent something from like this happening? This partnership between Russia and China to move forward. And speaking of that, I prepared an analysis for you guys. I'm gonna do it in a recorded video regarding the security landscape of the South China Sea, and it's short, about 10 minutes or so, and, and I'm gonna release it soon, in few days. And this is why Russia will again benefit from that relationship with the Chinese from a geopolitical security or military aspect in addition to the economic. That's one. If I am to go with the reverse, that it will be China benefiting more from this relationship than the, the Russians— and let's go with that argument. And again, you reach your own conclusion at the end. I'll start with the economic aspects. From an economic, uh, perspective, it makes perfect sense that the Chinese will develop stronger economic ties with Russia than they will do with Europe or with whomever. Why? You're looking at two main factors, and the two main factors are Russia is wealthy when it comes down to natural resources, mainly oil and gas. Second is proximity, the geography. So it will cost China less to import the, uh, oil and gas from Russia than to do from, let's say, uh, Angola or, or Algeria or some other countries. Okay, proximity, because it's all about cost. You have to think in those terms. And this is why the Russian president's visit He will address the, the Siberia 2 pipeline because it will benefit also China. As I mentioned, 1.8 trillion cubic feet of gas per year. That is a substantial amount. So I mean, like, look just what's going on in Europe right now, you know. And to those who live— Hamad, you are in England, please just share with the community here just a word or two. About the cost of energy in your— in, in, in the UK, just how high it is, or the inflation, or— I mean, you are there, and I'll trust your judgments in sharing this. To those who live in Europe, if you will be kind, just share with the community here, so to have an idea. And again, I follow up with my argument as to why China will benefit economically. I'll think of the joint ventures that China is getting into with Russia in the Arctic. I take my, uh, my supplements, special ones, and they make me thirsty, so I have to drink a lot. Now, China has been building permanent research stations in the Arctic. I'm going to share one with you. Uh, right here. And this one, by the way, has been built for a while. This is considered the fourth, the fourth research base in the Arctic. And as I mentioned in my book, uh, China has been funding research projects and exploration of gas and so forth. As a matter of fact, it just came to my attention yesterday And again, I got to confirm this, that the Russians have tapped into, uh, uh, massive reserves of oil, the equivalency of about 550 billion barrels, near the British claimed area in the Arctic. I have not confirmed this yet. I'm gonna look into it and I'm gonna report to you about it. For now, let's focus on China as to its project. I'm going to share also a picture with you of the Xue Long. I hope I'm pronouncing it correctly. If anybody, all those who speaks Chinese, please correct me if I'm wrong. The spelling is X-U-E dash L-O-N-G. Xue Long. This is a Chinese icebreaker. And by the way, China has more than one. So both the Russians and the Chinese have. And again, if I am to go with the arguments that China's benefiting more, it makes perfect sense because of the ventures that is getting into the Arctic for one purpose and one purpose only, is to have access to the untapped natural resources there in conjunction or in, uh, uh, ventures with the Russians. And that's why the Siberia 2 pipeline is going to deliver the gas into northern China. And of course, like you all know by now, guys, any country's developments depends on what? Please type in that in the chat box. For any country to move forward or prosper economically, it depends on what? Oh, you got it. Yeah, oil, you got it. Alastair Colin, oil, energy, Q78, no other way around. Again, use Europe as a case in point, use Europe as an example 10 years ago, and use Europe as an example 2 years ago. The answer is clear. So, uh, Caramel Crash, indeed, cheap oil. You guys got it. And this is the idea why, if I am to go with that argument, that is China benefiting from that, it makes perfect sense. Because here is the thing, China's, uh, uh, research stations in the Arctic, one is located near Norway archipelago and the other near Iceland. And if you remember when I shared the Arctic map with you, if you looked at where the, uh, uh, uh, Arctic is as far as the location for Norway and the, uh, Iceland. Makes perfect sense. So, and here is the interesting aspect: China went ahead also and proposed establishing another research station. Guess where? In Greenland. So, as well as a satellite ground or ground satellite, satellite ground stations rather, uh, in, in different locations around Greenland. So, so, and all this because China has also, uh, wanted to build the ones near Finland and Sweden. Why do you think that is? Why those two countries? And again, just to get you involved in a conversation. Why these particular two countries? There is one specific reason to do with China's big picture economically. I'm giving you a hint there. If you can type in, in the chat box, please just tell me what do you think that is. Why those two countries, Finland and Sweden? Because China has built already a satellite station in northern Sweden, okay? And invested in Finland as part of what? What is this particular aspect that China, uh, is doing for it to go to those two countries? Bordering Arctic, that's one. Fish, that's one. Think big picture. Think big picture. They— oh, you got it, you got it, Think Tank, you got it. BRI and the Silk Road. You guys got it. The Silk Road, which is another word for the BRI. You guys got it. Uh, uh, Munir Ali, the Polar, Polar Road or Silk Road. You guys got it. That's the point. And this is why, if I am to go with that argument, is China benefiting more? Okay. And this is why, uh, there is an article out there and I'm gonna post the link for you. Uh, that was written a few years ago by, uh, his name is John, I believe, Grady, if my memory serves me well. I do remember because I do, you know, subscribe to the stuff. I get all the articles regarding what's going on around the world. Yes, it's from here, the US Foreign Affairs, but I read on both sides of the Atlantic. I don't just focus on what American publications said because I usually don't trust them. I'll say it's straightforward. And again, it becomes on me to vet the information, to see, uh, to check on its accuracy. So, so, but it doesn't mean that I will read the other publications as well, even though, like, for example, I am now in a process of reading more and more about the Nekai Asia, even though some of you have mentioned that the NECA Asia publications have been biased. And I'm not reaching that conclusion yet, but I am reading more and more to see where that trend is headed. And even if it becomes clear to me that is biased, I'm still going to read. Why? Because I need to present you both sides of the argument. I will not consume their conclusion. We never do that. And the same thing for you guys here in this channel. In this community. My conclusion is not for you. My conclusion is for me. You reach your own because you are intellectually now independent and capable of reaching that conclusion yourself. And again, I'm not saying it to be Mr. Nice. That ain't my personality. I'm saying it because you've been around with me long enough now that you could reach that level. And you are. So when you think about it from an economic perspective, as far as China benefiting from the relations, that exemplified in its larger presence in the Arctic, uh, uh, through its partnership with Russia, which I argued in my book back then. So, and, and this is why I'm saying, uh, to, to, to China, yeah, It makes, uh, strategic sense and economic sense to strengthen the ties with, with Russia because China will benefit as well. But China is not benefiting only economically, it is also benefiting from, uh, the military aspects of it, even though China is capable of developing its own. It's not about that, it is about building that partnership. That can strengthen. And as I said before, that could one day translate into an alliance. And this is what I see on the horizon moving forward. If those four countries— Iran, North Korea, Russia, and China— form an alliance, NATO will stand no chance. The West will stand no chance.. And all those AUKUS and Quad and Squad and all that nonsense, because to me it's nonsense, those are nothing but, uh, distractions. AUKUS, what will AUKUS do if China and Russia get together militarily and add North Korea to the mix in that part of the world? AUKUS will stand no chance. What will the Squad do? Even with Philippines added to the US, China, the US, Japan, and Australia, they stand no chance. And that's what I'm saying, you have to think in terms of the ability to think in terms of, okay, which country is going to be benefiting more. And I just wanted to say, somebody's trying to reach me here, but I can't answer that. Trying to, uh, explain to you guys, before you say this or that, always keep— take a step back and see the big picture. And you might be surprised, you might not be surprised when I reach the conclusion. So now move on to the, to the military aspect. Why is this important for you to understand? And again, I am very familiar with this topic because I wrote a book about Russia in which I detailed this relationship between Russia and China and how it will change the geopolitical landscape moving forward. Remember, I did the research back in 2016, start writing in 2017, and here we are. Well, back then, in 2018 to be exact, what did China do? China joined Russia during one of the military exercises, the annual— it's called Vostok military exercises. It was, to me, it was the strongest message ever sent openly. Why? Because he raised concern. Those exercises raised concern given to the West. But why the visibility of something like this? I'm gonna ask you a question. The, the— not a question, but rather just share with you the exercises that's been conducted recently between the Philippines, uh, the, the squad. Do we hear anything about them anymore? No, because its visibility wasn't— why? Because we're saying Philippines in that, Japan in that, Australia. What do they have to offer? You know what I'm saying? That was the whole idea. Doing the exercise was nothing but, was nothing but just for a show. That's all it was. This one was different. You got two capable militaries, two advanced militaries, two nuclear-powered militaries conducting joint exercises. The visibility of it— and this is again where that idea of what the analysis will mean because you have to consider the visibility, you have to consider the scope of it, and you have to consider the scale of the exercise. So, and again, if the Russian president and the Chinese president said in a statement recently, recently, that their partnership has no limit, so is the military exercises, they have no limit. And as a matter of fact, to give you, to, to give you a, an understanding and the depth of this partnership, it's not about just conducting military exercises, the visibility of it. He went even beyond, and this was translated through the sale of advanced weapon systems. I'll give you a quick example based on the research that I conducted. China purchased Russian advanced surface-to-air, which is the SAM missile, the S-400 missile system. And remember, that was back in 2018 when I did the research. And the cell, when I researched it, found out that Russia even agreed to sell its advanced Su-35 fighter jets to Chinese. So, and this is why it's important to understand the benefit of Russia— of China, rather— into this relationship. So, and this leads me to talk again about the idea of the way I see it, and my own conclusion is a win-win. Not one country will benefit more than others, no. The West is saying the narrative, well, this is why the West has been pressuring China to state publicly that, oh, it condoned the, the Russian military exercise in Ukraine. And China said, no, we're not going to do that. We are neutral. We're not getting involved into this. To me is the idea of because of win-win. Russia benefits from this relationship as much as China benefits from the relationship as well. So, and again, if I am to gauge any strength of a partnership, I'll gauge it first through economics, not a military one. And again, based on my experience as one who've dealt with this throughout the years, I've always looked at that the, the, the economic aspects. And this is why there are those two countries that really I don't get the logic of their thinking— Philippines and India. I I just don't get it. Given that their economy is not where it needs to be, you will think they will approach this from the perspective of elevating their economic standards instead of fomenting or being served or being used as a pawn. Because if there is any conflict— and I say this in the case of Philippines. Mike, my word on this, the US will not fight on behalf of the Philippines. So that's just what it's going to be. And just to highlight to you the importance of this Russia-China, especially when it comes down to economic, I digged enough yesterday and I found, uh, some, uh, stats which I will share with you later on in the Uh, uh, uh, as a matter of fact, I'm gonna put it up for you right now in the chat box. You can— oh, what happened? There's no picture. Add picture. Okay, here we go. I don't know where the picture went. Uh, let me share in the chat box with you guys, the link to these stats, and you can look it up later on. So, so, and the idea is that— oh, I saw— oh, Army with Harmony, thank you so much for your super sticker, truly appreciate it. Dr. Oualaalou, you look green, check your screen. Yes, I— because I, I had to touch the phone, I guess, whatever, somebody was calling me from overseas, so I shouldn't touch that one. I let it rain, but lesson learned. Thank you so much for letting me know. Truly appreciate you. So here's the thing, uh, recent years— when I'm talking about just what happened in, uh, the first quarter in January 2024, just recently, the first quarter, which by the way just ended, the first quarter of 2024 saw the positive trend continues with bilateral trade between Russia and China reaching— just the first quarter— reaching $56.6, almost $57 billion. That's an increase of 5.2% from last year in same time frame. And as a matter of fact, Russia and China in 2023 reached about $240 billion. Which means what? They are ahead of schedule as far as crossing beyond $200 billion mark. They were ahead of schedule for that. And this, and this leads me to say to you, my conclusion about this relationship is that both of them are benefiting, win-win, from both countries. That doesn't mean, to those who say, is Russia benefiting more? Or is China benefiting more? Because it is. It's just, that's how you're gonna have to, uh, uh, uh, sort of approach this particular aspect of the, uh, of the partnership. The benefit is mutual. That is, uh, and this is why this, this, this strength in a relationship, it's a welcome news within their respective circles. What do I mean by that? Global South. Now, are we going to include India into that? I don't know. What do you guys think? Because India is considered part of the Global South. Uh, I will— I, for me, I categorize it that way because India's economy is not where in comparison to where China's is. So, so that's the, the way I see it. And when you consider the recent trip to Europe, uh, to Serbia and, and Hungary, it makes perfect sense as to the strategic thinking of China. When you think about the, the Arctic, uh, what China is building over there, uh, the, the, the research centers and the conjunction with the, uh, all this tied to its BRI, the Belt and Road Initiative. And this is the route, and you look at it, how it goes, you know, from Denmark, Rotterdam, Athens, to, uh, Suez Canal, Mombasa, Malacca Strait, Jakarta, Xinjiang, and Shanghai, all the way to Alaska through the other side. And the land route you're seeing is going from Beijing all the way to Athens through Moscow and Rotterdam. So that is the idea of what I need you to understand, the big picture of what the significance of this friendship and partnership means. Uh, now one of you put a comment, if I remember, he said anytime you see these two together, you feel at ease. Ah, there, there is some reality into that. And again, I am not advocating for any here. I am advocating for what's right and what's true. So, uh, you look at just the state of a country, where it is, because it's reflective of its leadership. That's the way I look at it. Uh, it's like the saying that goes, You are what you eat, because if you eat well, you look well. If you eat bad, you look bad. Same thing with governance. The state of a country is reflective of the state of its leadership. So you reach your conclusion. And as a matter of fact, as I mentioned, a lot of people now from the West are moving to Russia and Eastern Europe and leaving the US. And even the UK and Canada, to my knowledge. So, so, so this is what's important to understand, guys. All right, that's all I have to share with you. Uh, as I always say, if I don't have anything of substance to share, I stop. So, uh, I'll, I'll answer a few questions from you guys. And once again, just to remind you, uh, uh, uh, be on a lookout for a video that I'm going to release soon Uh, it's a recorded one about an analysis about the geopolitical or the security landscape. What do I see moving forward in South China Sea? So, and please, for this video, please remember to hit the like button and share it with others. I will greatly appreciate it. I'll take this opportunity to also say thank you to those who, uh, uh, support the channel through PayPal. I usually put the link in the description if you are interested in supporting the channel, uh, to those who buys me coffee on a regular basis. Osiris, TC Quan, uh, Boone, uh, uh, J Liang. I mean, there are many of you, many of you. Uh, I'm Salim, and I'm very grateful. Uh, Army with Harmony, uh, to all of you. Uh, uh, yeah, look, Harry, look, and, and to all of you guys, I'm very, very grateful and thankful to you. So All right, let me answer a question or two before I'll go and take a break and work on the next topic for you, because I need to check on that, uh, uh, Bangladesh, because that to me, it will— I can see something else in the horizon, different direction, whether the US will play a role into that. So, all right, let me— I'm gonna scroll all the way back. Uh, uh, and yeah, some of you ask me to invite, uh, Jill Stein. I intend to reach out and, and extend an invitation if she's interested in coming on the show. I would be, uh, very, very grateful to her because for you guys to hear a different perspective. Uh, uh, Army with Harmony, you wrote, Dr. Oualaalou, you are Doing good. Thank you so much for sharing. You know, you're most welcome. You're most welcome, Army with Harmony. It's the idea of what do you acquire knowledge for? You know, you get a PhD, so what? If you can put it to use, it's useless. You know, that's to me, uh, it's common sense to me. That's, that's what needs to be done. And I find that this is one way of, of, of doing it. Uh, that's how I do that. So, uh, Mr. Stefan, where do you teach? I'm not teaching right now. I, I decided not to. I used to teach at Texas A&M. I left because it's corrupted, which by the way, I am going to do a video for you because I gave you my word. My word is my bond. I gave you my word that I will do a video for you about the corrupted academic institutions in the US. On the other platform. So I'm working. So I used to teach Texas A&M. I left. I was teaching at community college just on part-time on my own. I didn't sign any contract, so I don't teach right now. I decided not to because this is— it consumes my time. I do hope if an opportunity presents itself, I'd like to teach in Asia in, in an institution that does English, of course, because I don't speak the, the languages in Asia. So, so that's what I'd like to teach, uh, the graduate program for international relations. So that's what it is. All right, uh, question here from Caramel Crush: Do you think North Korea will join BRICS? I don't see that now. No, I don't see it because again you're gonna have to think in terms of what does North Korea has to bring, uh, to the, uh, BRICS economically. Because we can't be, uh, sort of, uh, uh, well, it's a poor country, whatever. Yeah, it is poor country, uh, it's been isolated forever. It is strong militarily, but economically it depends on China and Russia. So, and as a matter of fact, Russia now lift— lifted the sanctions on North Korea. They don't care anymore. So, so I don't see that happening anytime soon, and BRICS will have to think Like I always say, we have to think very carefully moving forward. That's the way I see it. Oh, Ahmed K, much appreciate you, man. Thank you so much. You wrote, you are giving priceless knowledge from your heart. Thank you. And I do, yes I do. And I'm not here to just waste your time and mine. If I didn't mean this, I won't devote the time and energy because this takes time for me to go and research all this and prepare. I am very grateful to my wife helping me behind the scenes. I can't do this alone, so your support means a lot to me. And that's one of the reasons when I decided to do this almost full-time, I made decision not to teach at the college, is because I never signed the contract, because I never wanted to be bound. But so I'll teach whenever I feel like it. To me, I find this very, very important, and I, I enjoy— I like to do that. So thank you so much, Ahmed. Truly appreciate you. Uh, uh, HZ Ben Norton, I did send him an email, never heard back. And again, I don't chase after people because to me, I, I understand people busy and all that stuff, but I also understand the, the, uh, the courtesy of responding by saying I am not available instead of ignoring completely that. And I don't— you usually— I'll cross instead of drawing a line under the name, I draw across the name. So, but just FYI, I did send an email but I haven't heard back from the person. Uh, so let me see a question from you. I'm scrolling all the way down. Georgilia Jones, thank you for being here as always. Thank you so much for your time. You're most welcome, and I truly appreciate your continued support. You guys, uh, support comes in many, many ways, many forms. You know, a kind word sometimes, it's, it's also a good one. This is why I'm very grateful. It's very important to me. Showing gratitude is very important. And I know to those who get upset that I take extra time to— I'm sorry, you know, you don't like it, take off, go take a hike. Because gratitude is important. So we're just passing through this life, guys. I ain't taking anything with us. You will only be remembered by how did you deal with other human beings. Simple as that. The wealth and all, it's nothing. So, uh, Muslim Reverts, thank you so much, man. Truly appreciate it. Muslim Reverts has been an avid supporter, and it's not about the financial, guys. It's about the contribution to the conversation intellectually here. Because to me, if somebody contributing to the knowledge of the community, that's a win-win for all of us, because it's not me, just me talking to you. It's the other way around, and that's why I'm very appreciative and grateful to all of you. So thank you so much, Muslim Revert. Truly appreciate your support and appreciate your contribution to the, to the community right here. So, so, uh, the M. Stefan Banch, you are a good analyst, you should partner with the Durans. You know, I, I don't know, it's, it's kind of you reach out, if there is no reciprocity, I— so sort of, I can't— I don't— again, it's my personality. I don't chase after people. I reach out to you the first time, I might reach out second time, but that would be it. Because to me, there's something called also dignity, you know. You kind of— yeah, I would love to. I'll be happy to be on their show. That's the one I shared with you guys. Last time, uh, when I was invited with the, uh, Turgi Kuzin, uh, he invited me to his channel and then I was like, why not? I'd be happy to do it. So yeah, if an emperor— if they extend an invitation also, I will be happy to show up there. And it's all for the knowledge, it's all for the knowledge. Their community will benefit, our community here will benefit as well. I'll be happy to do it in a heartbeat. So, so if you guys are part of their channels, let them know. So, uh, Stephen the True, doctor, can we see your wife on there? I did share some pictures with you guys. Yeah, why not? I'll put a picture one day. Uh, I'm— yeah, I'll be happy to. Uh, Army with Harmony, will Israel destroy Rafah? Now No, they just, they just flexing. Whatever. Israel is done for. Yeah, whatever. Now it's just, uh, going through the motions. But also remember, the US elections are coming soon, and it's, it's a mess already. Uh, I, I, yeah, it's hard to tell. But what would be the objective if they couldn't defeat, uh, in, in the group in Gaza then? Because that's, that's the significance of it. So, and, and, and to me, the shame is on the Arab countries, the likes of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, even Turkey. I will go— did you guys know that Turkey is resuming trade with Israel of the construction material? Yeah, Turkey. That's why I always say, watch what this— watch what they do, not what they say. That, that's the— yes, Caramel Crash, indeed. Please hit the like button. I will greatly appreciate it, guys, because that's how we move up the, uh, the ladder. So, Truth Seeker, good to see you as always. Uh, saw your interview with Pongyan Guzin. Yeah, yeah, and extend an invitation. I responded right away, and why not? Especially was about a topic that I am very familiar with, uh, and I did post it for you guys in the, uh, uh, community. Just go to the community tab and you'll see it, uh, over there. So that's what I did, that one. So thank you so much for your, uh, super sticker. Truly appreciate you. Francis Tango, here is another one. Thank you so much, Francis. Truly appreciate you, man. Truly, truly appreciate you. Uh, Francis has been an avid supporter. And again, not just about the financial aspect, is the intellectual contribution. It's as important as— because you guys, someone in this community learn from whatever you share of importance. Think of it that way, because you have something to contribute as well. Never ever, in my opinion, never ever underestimate your value. You have something to offer. Some of you might not have tapped into it yet. It's internal. You have to really reconnect with yourself internally, but you have something to offer because all of us, no matter what, no matter where you come from, No matter what environment you came from, all of us possess some level of intelligence. It's just how easy and quick for one to tap into it. Straightforward. So, so thank you so much, Francis. Truly appreciate you, man. All right, let me see a question here because I need to answer some questions from you guys. Uh, Uh, all for, uh, oh yeah, for all of us, you know. Thank you so much for your Super Sticker. You wrote, where the people's voice is not heard, there will be a revolution. The World Teacher, that is true. Did you guys know, and I'll talk detail on the other location, did you know that what's going on right now on— I can talk for my country, I can't talk for others. Someone has talked about it 40 years ago, 40 years ago. And you know what he said? He said that only if American people allow it to happen, it's going to continue. And it's exactly what is happening. So, so you're absolutely correct. Till people wake up, take stand, nothing change. And that's why you are noticing at least to those of us who live here in the US, you're noticing people are moving out of the US. Because I tell you, and I'm being generous here, in about a decade America is going to look different. Very different. Very different. Not in a good way, sad to say. It's unfortunate. Uh, I'm sorry, I can't read this. If you will be kind just share it with us in English. I would greatly appreciate it. But thank you for sharing. So, uh, all right, let me see another one more question here before I sign off. Oh, Matt Backey! Good to see you, Matt. Matt and I would communicate on, on Twitter— X, that is. Dr. O, I have commented on most other shows About invite you, usually you mention and analyze a year or two before other sites and analyze best teacher. Thank you so much, man. Truly, truly appreciate you. And, and I appreciate you for also sharing your knowledge with all of us here. So, so, and again, guys, I will be happy to show up on whomever extend the invitation, assuming they talk logic. You know, I don't go to those hyper stuff that, uh, you know, I can't You know what I mean, right? Yeah, because to me credibility matters because it's my name in line. So, so, uh, Hamad City, I'll take question from you. Thank you. Here, uh, today UK PM claimed the next 5 years will be most dangerous in UK history ever. What do you think? Well, of course, it's because UK created that itself. The UK is gone a long time ago. UK and France and now Germany are irrelevant. So Germany is still holding by thread, but UK and France, they're done for, especially the UK. Their economy is down the drain. I talk to people in the UK, they telling me when they go to groceries, seeing what the prices are or where the prices are So where is this government that doesn't govern on behalf of its people to make the living conditions of its citizens better? Yeah, UK is done for. And when they speak this loud about, well, we're gonna fight the Russians, whatever— how are you gonna fight the Russians? You know, you don't even have enough ammo to fight one afternoon against the Russians. You know, it's irrelevant. So, so most dangerous, he just creating fear because the reality is that UK is done for. So it behooves the citizens, but again, it's their country, they can decide they want to live in that system, whatever. That's why you're seeing British people are leaving. I just saw one video of a guy from England who's living now in Russia permanently. It's like, you know, what's there in UK anymore? So, so yeah, yeah, Hamas, it's kind of, uh, keep your eyes open. You live there, keep your eyes open and have a plan in place. That's my best advice to you. Have a plan. So what, uh, Sunak is saying, it's nonsense. The guy wasn't even elected. It was— it's not supposed to be in that position to begin with. It wasn't supposed to be there to begin with. So, uh, all right, one more question here. Uh, Hong Wong. Oh, I am glad you asked the question because I forget to mention this one here, guys. And this pertains to Hong Wong question. Dr. O, with the BRICS Summit this year, what do you think would be the focus point. And I'm glad you ask this one. Great, great, great question because I forget to mention to you one of the conversation that it's going to be, in my opinion, between the Russian president and President Xi when the Russian president visits China. It will be about BRICS because the next summit in October will be in Kazan, in Russia, under the leadership of the, of the, of the, of Russia. And in there, they're gonna have to have some key policy that they're gonna have to talk about. Of course, it won't be just the Russian and Chinese decision. They have to include the others as well. But again, you and I know who matters inside BRICS. It's reality, it's truth, it's fact, and so forth. So, so yes, and if I am to guess here, is the push towards de-dollarization even further. And if I am also to think, I will say they might come up with the definitive decisions regarding the currency by which, uh, trade will be conducted among BRICS members. Now, I can foresee that India will object. There is no way out of it. But I can also see a mechanism by which the other four will move forward whether India agrees or not. If he agrees, that would be better for India. But again, India is not— India is, uh, I just saw a picture, by the way, which I forgot to share it with you. Uh, yeah, I have it right here. Uh, I, I'll share the picture and let you reach your own conclusion. And again, not to judge Because we guys are beyond that in this channel. We're beyond that. All right, let me share the picture with you right there. What you looking at? That's by Jackson Angley, by the way. Uh, India state-owned arms company Munition India Ltd has been shipping arms to Israel aimed at the Gaza G-word. Yeah, so that's what I'm saying. It's, it's, it's— again, we're not judging here, we just providing the facts. The idea of how BRICS is going to move forward regarding your question, Hongwan, will depend again on also what India is going to do. But at the same time, I feel India is going to always be holding BRICS down. That, that's, that's how I've always felt, not just today. So, so that's the way I see it. All right guys, I am going to sign off here. I thank you for being here and, uh, much appreciate you as always, uh Once again, thank you all for your super sticker, from Muslim Revert to all of others. And, and this live stream, by the way, is great because of you, not me. You. This is why the community is all about. So I'm very grateful to you guys. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, bye-bye.