Russia, China & Iran Joint Military Exercises | Geopolitical Trends

All right, hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Excited to be with you as always. Uh, today's topic, I got an interesting topic for you. I'm going to be addressing, or providing you rather, my own analysis about the joint exercises between Iran, Russia, and China. So as a matter of fact, they started today, uh, in the southeastern, uh, Iranian port of Chabahar. So this is what I'm going to be addressing for you. But before I'll do that, I want to say hi to our wonderful community. Let me see here. Oguz Ibrahim, good to see you. Timeline Dunkley, as always. Truth Seeker, good morning to you as well. Um, Abdul Fahd, good to see you. True, uh, who else? Amanda, Good to see you. Alice Talokin, thank you. Here you are. We didn't miss you yesterday. Uh, Tom Saya Wires, same to you. Good to see you here, guys. All right, let's get into our— and please, uh, uh, if you will be kind, give me thumbs up, uh, if you can hear me loud and clear. I just want to make sure. I don't want to take any chances with that. So, Zakir Hussain, good to see you. Francis Tango, good to see you as always. Yeah, let me guys see a sign from you that you guys can hear me loud and clear before I launch into my conversation. Taiwan still, thank you very much. Thank you, appreciate. Truth Seeker, thank you very much. All right guys, let's get into our topic. But before I'll do this, I want to do some headlines, uh, from around the world, then I'll dive in into our topic. So, so let's start with the first one, and I have some images here I'm gonna share with you. Uh, we're gonna start from Syria, and I give credit to Anadolu Agency. That's the picture belongs to them. This is Latakia, or Al-Adiqiyah for those who speak Arabic, and Wadi al-Ayyun, that's another region. So what happened in, uh, in, in Syria? Well, Syria is now— the Syrian Network of Human Rights documented the killing of 803 people, uh, uh, during the violation, uh, the, yeah, violations that occurred between March 6th and 10th, which means yesterday, up to yesterday. So most of which, uh, concentrated in Latakia, Tartus, and I think Hama. That's where it was. So, and here is where the big concern— the big concern is that the security operations were not limited to just pursuing those directly involved in the attacks. That's where the problem—

why?

Because the security entities turned a blind eye into violent confrontation, on the violent confrontations during, uh, this, uh, uh, killing that took place of civilians, because some of these attacks were vengeful and sectarian nature. So this is what— now the problem is that they are either local factions or foreign Islamic organizations affiliated with the Ministry of Defense. Yeah, they affiliated with the Ministry of Defense. That's the one end up, uh, uh, uh, sort of just killing people. That's not right. So, so anyway, I just want you guys to know what's going on. And because it's going to be coming up in the news as far as, uh, uh, the events that took place there. Uh, second one has to do with Amanda. You will know who this person is. Let me share picture. Yeah, Amanda, since she's from that part of the world. So anyway, this one is the new Canadian Prime Minister, and his name is Mark Carney. He is now being elected as the new Canadian Prime Minister, uh, and of course the task ain't gonna be easy for him because, uh, uh, he's— he has some major challenges to deal with. One, the first one has to do with the housing prices in Canada, uh, and, and, and since Amanda in Canada, would you please just share with the community how high those housing prices are? Because there is a problem right now, or has been in Canada, especially under Trudeau's administration. So, but what the new Prime Minister Mark Carney is gonna be dealing with mainly is also dealing with the Trump administration, the tariffs and so forth. So there is a big, big problem. As of now, the dictator Trudeau is still in in, in, uh, in office. I think he's leaving by the end of the month, if I'm not mistaken, because the parliament will be till about March 24th. So, so anyway, I just want you guys to be aware of that. The last thing I want to share with you has to do with the comedian Z and the incompetent, uh, uh, Steinmeier. So why is this important? And I give a credit of the picture to Anatolia. So And this is, by the way, this picture is during the summit, the so-called summit that took place in London. Why is this important? It's because Europe now pledges to defend Ukraine, but guess what? They beg Donald Trump for support. So you can have it both ways. So mainly France and Britain now are expected to continue sort of trying, uh, to mediate or improve relations between the US and Ukraine. And as a matter of fact, tomorrow I believe there will be a meeting in Saudi Arabia between comedian Zelensky, who's already there according to my knowledge, and the delegation by the Secretary of State, uh, Rovio, who's going to be going over there to talk to him. I don't know why, but why bother? So, so now, thanks, looks like Europe is, holding the end of the stick, they're finding out that they might not be in a position to really provide a long-term support for Ukraine. So, because Europe will face serious and great difficulties in supporting Ukraine if the United States cuts off, uh, financial and military aid. And that's to me was always the key that if really Mr. Trump wants to do the right thing, pull the US out of NATO. Uh, like, uh, uh, who did this one here, by the way, guys? Who is another European leader did this back in the '60s? Does anybody know? Let me see in the chat box. If you know, you'll be, uh, I would appreciate it if you kind, if you can type in that in. Who is another? He was a head of state at that time in, uh, in the '60s in Europe who pulled his country out of NATO. Let me just see. Oh, Zan, you got it, you got it. Chad Franklin, you got it. It was Charles de Gaulle. Indeed, Charles de Gaulle, who's the one who pulled France out of NATO because the US trying to intimidate him, and he said, I won't have it. So now I'm saying, well, maybe Mr. Trump will show leadership by pulling the US out of NATO if he says If Ukraine doesn't want to get into the, uh, for to agree for ceasefire, then so. And of course the Russians are also saying there is no ceasefire now because there's— it's very, very complicated. So I might do a live stream for you about it, uh, some other time. So, all right, let's get in into our topic here. And I have the questions I'm gonna be sharing with you, the, the brief questions, uh, basically, uh, the timing of these exercises or naval drills, the significance of it, and of course the message. And this is what I'm going to try to highlight in my analysis. So the joint naval drills that's organized— here is the key, the timing— those are annuals. Every year they do this around this time. I remember in 2024, and I was following this, as a matter of fact I did a video on it, uh, if you guys check it out, uh, back then. It was between March 11th and March, uh, either 15th or 16th, uh, if my memory serves me well. That was in 2024. So it's yearly, it's yearly, uh, uh, uh, training they do. The, of course, the location of it, and it's going to be now, or it is conducted, uh, near this port right here, the Shabahar Port, very crucial, which is in the coast also. Of Amman. Now the idea of this location, and I'm gonna be doing some geography and a little bit of history for you about this one here. So the Russia-China-Iran Games, now the timing of it, of course, as I said, is done on a yearly basis. But what I'm referring to is the timing of the, the, uh, the geopolitical tensions that exist in the region with the US against Iran and with Israel against Iran, the US and Hamas negotiations, Israel and Gaza and, and Israel and Southern Lebanon, the Houthis threatening to launch, uh, or to renew attacks on Israel. So all this comes in a critical time, uh, under which the Russia-China-Iran war games is going to take place. And this is why This game now is going to spark concerns because those three countries, especially Iran, is in anticipation of some conflict of sort. So, and this is where I see, of course, Western media is wording it differently. And I found something I'm going to share one sentence with you. Western media is saying that the three countries war games will spark concern about potential threat to global security. Hold on a second, this is playing with people's, uh, minds, if I may use the term. Those exercises, as I said, those done on a yearly basis, but the security, uh, concern, the global security is coming from the US and Europe and some other allies. That is the whole reason for all this. So, uh, before I move forward, please make sure to, to subscribe if this is your first time on this channel, because the analysis you are hearing, uh, on the, uh, here is unique to this, to this channel basically, and I'm, and I'm proud of it. So, so if you are learning and enjoying these free episodes, I will greatly appreciate if you could subscribe and, and share this, uh, channel with other people so they, like you, can hear the truth. And thank you very much for your support. So, so now here is the, the thing that I need you to understand about the nature of these exercises this time. This one now is going to be involving, of course, naval drills. It's going to be involving missile testing and amphibious landing. If you compare to those who are familiar with the— those exercises, those fall under the security belt. That's usually how it is worded. The last year one, it was about just for, for example, hostage rescue. This one this year is specific for a reason. The naval drills that involved missile testing and amphibious landing. So the leading questions that, uh, we're going to have to ask is, should the US be concerned or at least thinking about, okay, how the signif— what is the significance of this given what the United States is doing right now vis-à-vis Iran? This is why I wanted to sort of explore this, uh, the implications of this cooperation, the military exercises, but also put it within the security and geopolitical context that is. So, so let me, uh, share a clip with you guys., then, then I'll make my remarks on it. So this is from President Trump regarding when he was asked about these exercises. So take a listen, please.

Not at all. Not at all. Why not? Because we're stronger than all of them. We have more power than all of them.

Uh, hold on a second, Mr. President. We are not stronger than all of them. If you combine Russia, China, and Iran capabilities, we stand no chance. We stand no chance.

I rebuilt the military. Unfortunately, Biden did nothing.

I'll have to disagree with that statement. The Donald Trump didn't rebuild the military. So, and this is not about the previous administration. This is over decades and decades. So, so you don't kind of, uh, inflate the arguments in your favor.

With it, but I rebuilt the military, but we don't want to even talk about that. I think if you look at what's happening and if you see what we've done and if you see where we've come, and let's see what happens with the whole Russia-Ukraine thing. I think you're going to have eventually, and maybe not in the distant future, you're going to have some pretty good results coming out of Saudi Arabia this week.

Okay, I just want to— so I have to sort of push back against some statements that To me, it's not accurate. But, but my question to you guys, and I would like to have just a, a short yes or no. Uh, I mean, I'm not saying, you know, you give credit where credit is due. Like I always say, guys, uh, for Trump, do I disagree with some of his policies? Yes, I do. Do I agree with some? Yes, I do. But again, to me, it's a test in the leadership. Like, for example, when he talks about, well, I'm gonna pull the, uh, assistance from Ukraine. Well, Why don't you just pull the US out of NATO altogether? Because to me, that will, that will really test your leadership, if I may use the term. But my question to you guys, based on his statement, and just yes or no, do you believe, in your opinion, that he is accurate about we are stronger than all of them, meaning the US is stronger than Iran, Russia, and China combined? In your opinion, yes or no? And I will come back to your answers, uh, right here. As actually I'm seeing, uh, Multitome, you say no. Uh, S Cozy, you say no. That's— and, uh, YT, no, lip service. And I agree with that. Abdul Fahd, no. Uh, Al Stalukin, yes, they aren't good, dreaming and fooling themselves. I see what you mean. Phil, no. X, no. So you guys got a point and I concur with you because I agree with you. If you combine, and here is the biggest, even bigger concern. Can you imagine adding North Korea to the mix? No, we stand no chance. Actually, we will stand no chance just against each one of them. It's because history speaks for itself. What have we accomplished in Iraq? What have we accomplished in Afghanistan? Did we even— the blockade in the Red Sea, did we— are we able to lift that blockade? We couldn't. So that's my point. So, but, uh, let's, let's focus back on our, uh, key topic here about the exercises. So, and this is what I found interesting, why I wanted to do this for you, to highlight to you the dynamics of how geopolitics sometimes It is also the events that takes place on a global stage will end up impacting certain direction of certain aspects, like for example naval dr— excuse me, naval drilling, uh, naval drill exercises. This is a yearly exercise, but the nature of it is different because here is the thing, those exercises now is going to include simulated attacks. On maritime targets, joint search and rescue, of course, spot checks and, and, uh, and, and rest. But here is the key. When you think about China, what is China is sending? And I'm gonna share some pictures with you, uh, not this one. Uh, China is gonna be sending, uh, one of the advanced, uh, uh, destroyer that's Type 052D. I have a picture here for you, and I give credit to the PLNA, the, uh, People's Liberation Navy, uh, Army. That's for China. That's their picture. So why is this important? It is important because these destroyers are guided missile destroyers. So, so China is also sending Guangyuhu, which is from the 47th Naval Escort Task Force. That, that's to me significant, very significant, because you— when you have, uh, guided missile, uh, ships or destroyers going in, when you have two ship-borne helicopters, you know, that just is sending a message. Because when you compare this to last year, as I mentioned, The last year exercises, and I remember this vividly because I did a video on it, as I mentioned, they focused on anti-piracy and search and rescue drills. That's it. So you see a big, big difference. And when you consider, uh, for example, the, uh, and I'm gonna share a screen with you here for some Chinese naval hardware. So take a look, guys. Let me make this full screen for you. Right there. Take a look at that. This is another destroyer. And those, by the way, not all of them are in the current drills. I just want to And now this one is— this is the— this is the— the D, uh, what was it again? Uh, 052D guided destroyer. So, so I just want you to see, uh, uh, those images here, and I'm gonna stop this one just to give you an idea. Some, uh, now the importance of all this one, uh, uh, uh, in comparison to last year is because of what's going on. So, so the Security Belt 2025, this is the name of the, uh, exercises which I said earlier is going to take— is taking place right now near Chabahar port. And speaking of Chabahar, I'm going to do a little bit of geography about the region so you'll have an understanding of where things are. Uh, first of all, the, the port of Chabahar is located in the Makran coast of Sistan and Baluchistan province. And this is next to the Gulf of Oman and at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz. And it is the only Iranian port with direct access to the Indian Ocean. So I'm gonna share a screen with you again for the big map of the Strait of Hormuz. Because it's very, very important to understand the Strait of Hormuz. And I'll give credit to, uh, to World Atlas. So, so what you're looking at, guys, is the Strait of Hormuz, which is a very, very narrow waterway between Iran and Arabian Peninsula, specifically the United Arab Emirates. And of course Mussandam, which is in Oman. Now don't confuse Amman with Oman. The pronunciation is different. Oman is spelled with an O and Amman with an A, which is the capital of Jordan. Iran is located on the north coast with the United Arab Emirates and is— this is the Strait of Hormuz— on the south coast. And on the Gulf of Oman and on the Strait East with the Persian Gulf in the West. Now when you think about the Strait of Hormuz, it is about just 167 kilometers. It's not that wide, big enough. And with the width that is about 39 to 95 kilometers. So basically you can only have one tanker that can cross through that area. If I am not mistaken, because you can't have too many of them crossing at the same time. It just won't work because of the narrow aspects of it. So the, uh, and the, the width narrows towards the north but still allows for the passage of large vessels. So, and this is why It's very, very important. Some of the islands— there are some islands that are well known located in the Strait of Hormuz, including Hormuz itself, which is an island, Qishm, which is another one, and Hingam, which is— to those who might be, who might be interested in knowing how the name of Strait of Hormuz came about, because there is a, uh, the history of the origin of the name. So now when you think about this, you have to go back way, way, way, way back. We're looking about from the 11th to the 17th century AD, and this is when the kingdom of Hormuz was located on the Persian Gulf in the eastern side. Remember Persian Gulf. What is Persian Gulf in today's term? Of course is Iran. This is when you look at the eastern part, this is where the kingdom of Ormuz was located there. So, and the academic scholars believe that the strait may have derived its name from, uh, from that name Ormuz. Except they changed the pronunciation to Hormuz. You guys see where this is coming from? And of course, because it's derived from the Persian word Hormogh, and it's spelled M-O-G-H, which is translated to the date palm or palm dates. That's the tree with the date, that is. And this is where the Hormuz and Minab tribes still refer to the strait as the Hormuz, with the GH, not the Hormuz. So I just wanted to share this with you for your own knowledge, to have an idea of what's going on historically. All right, let's get into our analysis here. So I had a chance to read an article by Mariana Kolakova addressing the current naval drills between Iran Russia and China, which are set sort of, uh, on the coast and starting, uh, today. So, so the important aspects of all this is, is, is the, the message and the timing. Coincidence, because they're not going to be doing the exercises every year on March 11th, give or take. But the message that coincided with that timing is very, very crucial in understanding. Second thing is what's involved in this training— the, the warships or the type of the combat vessels that are involved, the support ships that are involved, specifically from the Chinese. Because remember, as I— and I have some other pictures, uh, that I'm going to be sharing with you— this is the, the Chinese a new commissioned frigate. And I give credit to Getty Images. This is a new one, guys. China just commissioned this recently. Uh, I have another one here, uh, that is from, uh, let me just get, uh, uh, this one is a new, uh, this one is highly capable, vessel. And this has been involved before in Middle East. So, and I think I have a third one. Uh, this is the launch of the Type 75, uh, which is another, uh, uh, that just the amphibious, that's what it was. And this one was launched in, uh, September 2019, if I'm not mistaken, and it was in Shanghai, right here, Shanghai. That's what it is. So, and of course, the 052D major destroyer. This is Chinese destroyer. So, so once again, is the idea of all this is sending a message, and that message is that Iran— that, I'm sorry, Russia and China will come to the support of Iran. I prepared an analysis for you that I'm going to do in a recorded video later on. I'm going to release it for you later on because you need to understand this dynamics. And there are two reasons to do this. To the Chinese, it's because they count on the oil from Iran, and any disruption, any disruption that's going to be in the Strait of Hormuz, it's going to be problematic to them. To the Chinese economy.

Yeah.

And it is my belief that the Chinese will step forward. Yeah. Chinese will step forward in defending their interest, and rightly so, to Russia, because it's also Russia invested heavily in Iran. And this is why when you think about the combination of these three, it sends a message. The other message that is is that who's been invited to attend or to observe those exercises. So, and I'm going to share the countries with you. You have Kazakhstan, you have Azerbaijan, you have South Africa, you have Oman, Qatar, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, and even Sri Lanka. So you might think What Sri Lanka has to do with this big time, because you think about the location of Sri Lanka, Southeast Asia, and the importance of all this. So now the idea that this comes on the heels of what Iran just did, uh, Iran and Russia, according to the author, uh, uh, what's her name, uh, uh, Marina Kolakova. So what's important about this is that Russia and Iran just signed the Memorandum of Cooperation, and MOU, that is, or cooperation, MOC, to do what? To develop jointly, to develop and manufacture microelectronics. Just think about it, guys. Think about what the US wanted to do in Ukraine regarding so-called rare earth elements, which by the way As I mentioned in the video that I did, the recorded video, you know, I put the title, maybe, maybe Trump was lied to about all this hype about that one, because most of that rare earth mineral in Ukraine at least is in the eastern part. So, so to Russia and China, because Russia has access to that. And this is what's important for this development and the manufacturing of the micro electronics. So that is so crucial. Then you have to understand about the Chinese also, the development of the nanotechnology. All this doesn't happen in a vacuum, no. But you have to understand, especially when it comes down to all three— Russia, Iran, and, uh, I, uh, I'm going to share an excerpt with you guys from, uh, Where is it? From my book, because I, I discussed this back then and it came relevant, uh, as of today. So I wrote back then, for instance, in support of its efforts to turn the geopolitical tables around, Russia gained military momentum earlier on by holding joint naval military exercises with Iran on August 2015. Russian warships Volgodonsk and Makashkala docked in Enzali Port near the Caspian Sea. The timing could not be better as these naval maneuvers came only a few weeks after the nuclear agreement between Iran and the P5+1. This is significant because it demonstrates As I argued in previous writing, that it would be just a matter of time before Iran and Russia enter into a strategic military alliance. This cooperation is getting stronger as both countries realize the need for each other despite having their objectives on different trajectories. For instance, Mr. Putin decides to support Iran in building new nuclear power plants using Russian technology. That's what I argued back then. So it makes perfect sense to me. Now you add China to the mix, and even further if you add North Korea, that's even— now for that one, we should have concerns. I mean, we should have concerns with this one. And this is why your answer to the question that I asked you If you agree with what Mr. Trump said regarding we are far stronger than all of them, you know, you already be the— you already been the judge of that one. So, so let's consider, uh, again, when I go back in, in a record, historical record, and I tend to do this to look at how things evolve over time, even if I am to go back to 2023, and usually this kind of exercises, and I tend to pay close attention to those. Why? Because that matters in the geopolitical landscape, because those will have the implications from a security aspect of it. So, and to those who might not know, that my PhD degree was in public policy but with a focus on international security. So this falls within my own wheelhouse in understanding where the developments are going. So I'll take you back to 2023, specifically October 2023. So what happened at that time? China— China's Navy has— because I'm going to give you an idea of where things are in 2023. China's Navy had around 370 surface ships and submarines, making it— listen carefully— making it the world's largest navy by number of active ships. And this includes aircraft carriers, submarines, amphibious ships, and 9 warfare ships. So, and that is again, to go back to today, that is again the message of those exercises, what could be sending to And to think in terms of this, I argued in my Russia book, and I'm going to share, if you allow me, just a brief excerpt here with you. And I wrote back then, and so the stage is set. The meteoric rise of China, the decline of the US's share of global power, the dissolution of a global order, and the possibility of joint military ties between Russia and China suggest that the shift in the global balance of power is already underway. We should not dismiss the warning signs of the return of Russia as a player that is, after all, a nuclear superpower, or certainly second to none with respect to destructive capabilities. That was my arguments back then. And this is why I need you guys to understand the significance of something like this one. It doesn't happen in a vacuum because the tensions that exist in the region, all the tensions that's going on right now, because we're still thinking in terms of having— we're still thinking in terms of having a, uh, what's the word, uh, a conflict with Iran. The US, that is. Now, can we fight? I don't know. I mean, we tried this before and, and we kind of saw where it was leading. So, and this is why you have to think in terms of how the West is going to be perceiving this one here. So, uh, I have one image I need to share this with you. This is a Where is it? This is one of Iran's, uh, naval— this is a naval missile corvette. Check this out, guys. Very interesting how they, they have this. And this was one, by the way, operated by the IRGC. So, and in my opinion, what we are witnessing is a game changer. It is a game changer no matter how we look at it. And the West is not going to want to accept and admit to the reality of it because things have changed and we are not in possession right now to dictate how things used to be. So this is why it's, it's important to understand this dynamics. Uh, let me move this picture out. Yeah, so, so they are this, uh, to, to mainly to China because China is very concerned about having its interest being disrupted. This is why they are sending some very heavy hitters as far as naval assets. So it's because the, when you think about it, to the security aspects of the Gulf When you look at the map, and you all remember, uh, what is— if I have the map here— no, I don't. Uh, if you think about the security aspects of all this, especially in the Gulf of Oman, that one is a key concern, uh, to, uh, what's going on, uh, regarding energy. Yeah, that's not a— when you have, uh, uh of course, 20% to my knowledge. It's about 20% of the oil transits through the Strait of Hormuz. So any minor disruption is going to create problems, and we all know what it means as far as the, uh, the, uh, oil prices, for example. And it is a choke point, and the Chinese are thinking ahead of time. Iran already mentioned that should there be an attack on Iran, they'll shut down the Strait of Hormuz. And why are they saying this? Because we think that we can just move our destroyers, whatever. No, it's because Iran has placed underwater weapons. So I let you read between the lines. That's why they say— we— they always say, we will shut down the Strait of Hormuz, because they are in possession to do so, but also because Strait of Hormuz is chokepoint, as I said. So when you think about it, that one, that passage is one of the world's largest oil— it has one of the oil and largest, uh, uh, gas reserves, the whole Arabian Peninsula for that matter. So So if you think about it, for example, Saudi Arabia, just by itself, one of the largest oil producers, so which accounts just by itself for about 16% of oil reserves. Then you add to that, to my knowledge, if I remember the numbers, please don't quote me on this, it's give or take. If I'm off, I'm off by, uh, no, no, 1 or 2 or even 3, about 30% or so. 30% of the world liquefied natural gas and 25% of oil goes through the Strait of Hormuz. So, and if we are to go back just a few years ago, so you're looking at about 17— yeah, 17 million barrels was shipped through the Persian Gulf, through the Strait of Hormuz, and that in itself represents about 20%. I do remember this number. 20% of the oil traded worldwide. And one, one stat that stuck with me, it was in 2000, uh, either '18 or '19, I, I couldn't remember, either one of these. You're looking at about $1.2 billion worth of oil passing through the Strait daily. That, that is why it's very, very important when you consider, uh, the, the importance of this. And this is why, in my opinion, why I wanted to do this, uh, livestream for you, is to highlight the, the geopolitical and security and the economic aspects of what it means should the United States or Israel embark on attacking Iran. And what the outcome is going to be. So here is another question for you guys. Hypothetically, should the United States or Israel or both attack Iran, in your opinion, do you believe China and Russia will come to the aid of support? Yes or no? We're not going to get into the details of what type of aid. It's just, will they, will they come to the aid of, uh, uh, Iran. Uh, Amanda, you say yes. B, uh, oh, where is it? B, you say no. Francis L, you say yes. Saint Anne, you say yes. Chad, you say yes. William N, you say, thank China, said they will not let Iran fall. Zhaoyan, you say no, I don't think so. Francis Tango, you say no idea. Okay, uh, World Majority, you say I hope so. Well, in Ramples 01, you say yes. Hong Ruan, you say yes. So majority of you, uh, X, you say Iran doesn't need anybody for a war, but China and Russia are going to supply more weapons to Iran. Good point. So, so interestingly enough, there are some of you who said no, that they won't come, uh, to the aid of Iran. Uh, I will have to respectfully disagree with you on this one here. But, but you got to point into that, the aspect which you might be thinking that way. And I can, I can assume you might be thinking that way, that when you said no, you, you might be thinking that They're not going to come to Iran's aid militarily. In other words, have their own troops on the ground and fight whatever. Now, in that case, yes, you are right. They won't. But providing weapons, for example, providing other type of support like intelligence, like satellite images, like, you know, some advanced stuff, the possibility is there. And this is why I am convinced that the idea of Iran, uh, the idea of China and Russia coming to the support of Iran is a foregone conclusion, and the United States and Israel understand that. So let alone, let alone that Iran in itself is strong army in comparison to any other in the region beside Israel, because Israel— will Israel be able to take on Iran by itself? I don't think so, despite what, uh, what, uh, Israel has as far as the weapons that we would be given. And by the way, I'll just share this with you, it's not classified, is that when 35 program came about, uh, the Israelis wanted the same one, the same, which we usually, we don't, we don't, we don't give this kind of stuff even to Israelis. So the way it works is you make some avionic, uh, uh, changes to, to the plane and you give it to the, uh, Israelis. But the Israelis insisted on having the same one. What the fear was, the concern in the US was that if that plane got shut down, because the US understand there are capabilities in the region, especially from the Iranians, that they will be able to take down that F-35. If end up falling, it's gonna fall into the hand, reverse engineering, and And you all know the rest. I'm sure you know the history, uh, to those who know exactly what happened in Pakistan, in Abbottabad, during the time when UBL was alive and how it came about and when the, the, the type of, uh, uh, what was it, a reverse engineered type of helicopter at that time. So anyway, that one is a little bit on a sensitive aspect, so we're not gonna talk much here. So, and, and that is one of the aspects. So now if we put all this aside— oh, Army with Harmony, let me share this with the community. Army with Harmony, thank you so much for your super sticker. And as always, and you wrote, Israel is not doing so well in Gaza. You got a point there. You got a point there because now Israel is very concerned about the, uh, negotiations that's going on between the United States and Hamas. Yeah, they are concerned that the US might pull the rug from under the Israelis' feet. And after all, it's the US decision, not the Israelis' decision. So this is what, uh, uh— oh, Matt Becky, you are right, the RQ-170, that was another reverse engineering. I was, I was aware of this one, But, uh, you're absolutely correct. Thank you, Matt. Uh, so the idea of, uh, reverse engineering, that's one of the concern about the, um, what I was gonna say is the idea of beside you put all this aside, the military and all that stuff, there is another element that had to be taken into consideration if there is this conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, Iraq, and it has to do with the social, the ethnic aspects of it. As I mentioned last time, there are Christians living inside Israel— inside, I'm sorry, inside Iran. They're not being harmed. It's just all that's going to change, like exactly what's going on right now in Syria, you know. Do you think that the Christians are not being targeted? I'll let you reach your own conclusion into that. And this leads me now to just move on to another theme within this. That's the big picture, because I like to think globally. When you think about geopolitics, you think on global aspects. With these dynamics that's taking place with these exercises and all that makes you now put the question mark on AUKUS because there is a concern now regarding AUKUS as to what Donald Trump might end up doing. And this is why, in my opinion, that the, the exercises, the timing of it was perfect in really sending that message that we intend to stand in support of Iran should be a conflict. And we also, meaning in this case China and Russia, intend to deal with AUKUS moving forward. And remember the tensions that's going on right now inside the Philippines because Marcos is targeting the Duterte's because they don't want Sara, of course, to be, uh, to run for president. And all this is because we want to push Philippines to the front because mark my word on this, the next conflict in South China Sea, you're gonna see Australia India and Philippines in front. That's what's going to be. Japan and South Korea, give or take, they will participate, but not to the degree that you and I might think. As a matter of fact, the new Japanese Prime Minister turned down the US request for increasing its defense. Does it mean anything? No, I don't think so, because at the end we will be dictating to Japan. It's exactly why after World War II, you know, what's the requirement we put on Japan? What is the requirement we put in on Japan after World War II? Does anybody know? Can you guys type it? We put a requirement. Let me see in the chat box. On Japan. Oh, Army with Harmony, you got it. Amanda, you got it. No military, no military. Uh, Fabrice Mabella, you're right, no offensive military, no military, that is. So, uh, so even though Japan is an ally, we kind of sold them the idea of they will be under the security cover of the US. That's the same thing we did to Europe. But interesting, tomorrow I'm going to be talking to you about a topic that involves Germany. This might shock you and surprise you. I don't want to get ahead of myself. I'll talk about it tomorrow. So, so Germany is the same. This is now why Germans and some Europeans are talking about a different security umbrella. It's going to be just talks because if Europe was intended on doing this, they would have done it back then. So, so suffice it for me just to go back to my original topic. Suffice it to say that regarding West Asia or Middle East, the confrontation— and, and again, I prepared an analysis for you that I'm going to be sharing in a recorded video later on, uh, but I don't mind sharing at least few things with you. Uh, uh, I said, uh, it is foregone conclusion that the conflict will not stay limited to the borders of the region. And having China and Russia participating in these naval drills sends that message loud and clear. So, and for Mr. Trump to say, well, we are far stronger than them combined, that's a little bit of a stretch. There is no way. There is no way. I mean, and I did a video way back about Uh, well, and I think I did also a survey for you guys whether the US can fight two simultaneous wars. Majority of you said there is no way, and I concur with you. I agree with you. We can't. We can't. So we can't. And that's the— that is where part of where this, uh, the way I see it moving forward from a security perspective. Is gonna trigger far worse. And I think, if I'm not mistaken, but I think Trump is reconsidering those options. Risk versus benefits. There is no benefits into attacking Iran. I'll tell you this straightforward. There is no benefits. It will only be risks. And once again, if Israel thinks that what they did back in, against Iraq, what they did against Syria. Iran is different ballgame. Iran's military is far stronger than those two countries or any other in the region, give or take for Turkey comparison because it's part of NATO and Israel because of the provision of the weapons we give them. But in a one-to-one No, I don't think so. Any country in a region will take on Iran one-on-one. And again, I could be wrong, but that's my understanding, given how it is. So that's how I see these aspects moving forward. And the idea that fighting in the Middle East— Middle East like a powder keg has always been. And if we think just because we sending weapons to the Saudis or Emiratis or Qatar— even Qatar has already mentioned, they made it clear in statement recently, they mentioned that they will not allow any launch of attacks from its territory on Iran or any other. Well, wait a minute, Qatar, if you are not going to allow this, why are you allowing US presence there to begin with, given Qatar has the largest military presence in the region. So that's to me a double standard, what Qatar is saying versus what it's doing. And like that, I always refer to this one here regarding the former Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius when he said, watch what a man says— not watch what a man does, not what he says. So if Qatar is opening its country to the presence of US forces. And you think you're gonna put restrictions on Americans? You know, that, that, that's a joke, in my opinion. That's like Philippines saying, oh, we're gonna be removing the, the Typhoon missiles from— no, you're not. Because we won't allow you. Let alone we have an additional 4 bases that are not disclosed to the Filipinos. It might be the president might know. We only declare that we have 5 bases in Philippines. No, we have 9. Same argument I would make. No, it's just understanding the security ramifications, both mainly the security, economic, and geopolitical. But think of security aspects of it. Iran is well branched in the region. With many groups. That was the investment Iran made after 1979, all these years. That's how crucial for us to understand. And this is why I think the United States now is really thinking hard whether it's worth going to Iran. I know how many in Washington wants to have a war with Iran. We all know this one. The Israelis want the US to do the war on its behalf. You know, it's not a secret. So, but again, the ramifications, the consequences of such involvement, what it's going to do to the region, it'll turn it upside down. And I don't think so Russia or China will let it, will just side by and watch. I don't think so. They're gonna give it mainly China. China is not gonna— because China has a lot of interest at stake. Russia invested a lot of interest inside Iran, so that they're not gonna— after what they did in Syria, they— and, and now things coming up to the surface as to how things are, and, and I don't think so. So there is how I see it, uh, moving forward. And, uh, I hope it never materialize. I hope, because who wants war? We all know what it means, you know. It's in economic developments where the interests are, not in a war. This is where you see the development of China. Why? Because China doesn't go and seek conflicts overseas, you know. And I'm talking based on my knowledge. I did, you know, I did the research in understanding where this is all going. So why instead Chinese focused on the economy, on their, on the welfare of their citizens? And I saw the results when I was in China. So this is how I see it. So, uh, one last thing. Let me see if there is, uh, oh, Army with Harmony once again, thank you for gifting membership. Thank you very much, appreciate it. So suffice it to say, one thing for sure is that every— the key players in the region— and I'll conclude with this, guys, because that's, that's how it works with me. I don't have anything of substance to say, I, I get off. So, uh, what was I gonna say? Yeah, for all the countries in the region, they are all now watching and assessing, assessing what the United States might end up doing with Iran. This is not about the fight, whatever, what they end up doing regarding whether the JCPOA, uh, JCPOA renegotiations will take place. They are also watching what the outcome of the US and Hamas talks might lead to. And those outcomes is going to define the security architecture of the region moving forward. Later along also, what's going on in Syria, how it develops. Now you have the interim government that is involved in slaughtering the, the Alawites. It doesn't matter Alawites or not, or Christians, whatever. No, that's not the point. The point is the targeting of civilians as a revenge. And if I am to go back to how things were in Lebanon at the beginning, you get the groups and all that, that's exactly the scenario I see going on in, uh, in, in Lebanon. So, so, oh, I want to say thank you to Singh. Thank you so much for your super sticker. Truly appreciate you. You wrote, US aircraft carrier can't be anywhere close to Iran for safety, which forces midair refueling, which can be extremely dangerous. Doubt America will pick a fight, especially with current financial situation. Spot on, man. I couldn't agree more. And thank you so much for your support. Spot on. Because here's the thing, we removed the aircraft carrier from the Red Sea. You remember You know, and what was the arguments back then? The arguments that the Pentagon released was, oh, the aircraft needed a maintenance because there was some issues with it. No, there were no issues. We were concerned about the Houthis having the type of torpedoes that will be provided to them, because Houthis cannot develop their own. They will be providing them, and we know where they're going to come from. You got 3 options. Even one, I'd put a big question mark on it, and I'll let you guess for who those 3 countries might be. And this is why the decision was made, move the aircraft carrier out of the region. And if we are this mighty, how come we couldn't even lift the blockade that the Houthis imposed? How come the British couldn't do it? So Iran is a different ball game. And like I said before, and it's not a, a classified information because I can't share that stuff. What I know is that underwater in that Strait of Hormuz, in that region, all of it, there are, there are type of weapons there that should there be a conflict, what Iran is going to do, shut down the Strait of Hormuz and and just activate those. US aircraft carrier will not want to take chance with that, let alone another thing is that Iran developed a hypersonic missile. Of course, that was also with the assistance of the Russians, but they developed it. They have it. China and Russia already have that. The most advanced one is the Russians. And for us here in the United States, and by word of the Pentagon itself, It's by the head of the Strategic Command in the Pentagon. I forgot his name. He confirmed, and I'm paraphrasing here, that we have nothing to defend against the Russian hypersonic missiles. So are the ones of the Chinese as well. And this is why what Singh shared with us is spot on. Doing a refueling midair is, is a risky business. This is why Israel couldn't attack Iran, because they can't— they need to have refueling midair. Who's going to do that for them? The Brits? No, they can't. France? They can't. It's going to end up being the US, which means we put the US aircraft, uh, the, the, the, the fuel tankers, uh, in, in sort of as a target. And if you think the Iranian will hesitate, you're mistaken. Iran will react to that or will target that because it's, it's under attack. And as a matter of fact, it's under the, the, the international law. If you come under attack, you are allowed to defend yourself. They're not, they're not just creating whatever. So And that's why it takes me back to the point of how the support of Russia and China will be towards Iran in case of a conflict. And mark my word, both countries, Iran, uh, Russia and China, will not hesitate to provide some advanced systems. Of course, we will know quickly, as like what we found out with the Houthis. No, no. What— that's why we are not doing anything in the Red Sea. We can't because we know what they have right now, what they got, they came into possession. And this is why the Houthis— and I think I might have to do an update for you guys. Would you like me to do an update regarding the Houthis and, and, uh, their recent statements regarding dealing with Israel? So if you like me to do that, just please Answer the— just say yes and I will know. So, and this is how we're gonna sort of evolve into understanding the geopolitical, the security, the economic ramifications of a conflict with Iran or any country in the region. Maybe others might be slightly different than the one with Iran, but with Iran it's a different ball game because still in the West mindset We're still thinking in terms of Iran of the '80s. Not the case. I say the same arguments about China. Some still think the China of the '80s. No, things have changed. And that's why the US, it's not going to take on China. There is no way. It would be a mistake. So it behooves Taiwan, the state of, or the province of Taiwan, to really get to act together in understanding, figure out a way for this peaceful reunification, because it's going to happen sooner or later. You may as well just get on it with it, you know. I mean, I— if the Taiwanese, the so-called leaders there, thinking that the US is going to come to their aid, they have learned nothing from history, you know. Because if you think the history for China, as far as wars, whatever There was none. There was only one conflict that China gets involved in. What year was it, guys? Do you, do you know? If you know, please type it in, in, in the chat box. One year. It was only one year and one conflict that China gets involved in for a reason, and I'll tell you the reason later on. Why? You're— 1979. Where was it? That is correct. Where was it? Zhaoyang, you got it. YT, you got it. 79, guys, you got that right. And why is that Vietnam? It's because the Cambodian overthrow the, the, uh, the, the Vietnamese. That's the reason why China got involved. Other than that, China is not going to get involved. So in the case of— which means in this case is different— China will have to get involved because it's part of their— its territory. So Taiwanese are miscalculating, misthinking in terms of what the US is going to do. No, no, same thing with Philippines. And this is again, for me personally, that's what concerns me the most as to where I see things moving forward regarding where the next conflict is going to be. So we can do both at the same time. This is why Mr. Trump wants to sort out this Ukraine conflict, then reallocate the resources towards South China Sea. But Mr. Trump needs to have some solid advisors who can give him an honest and objective assessment as to dealing with China today. It will be a mistake to consider or think about sort of flexing our military muscles in South China Sea or go and, and, uh, land our assets in Taiwan, and China just going to be watching. You know, we did send some special forces to Kinmen, but you know, it's nothing but posturing, no more, no less. And I do see the same arguments regarding Iran. Just to conclude my conversation here, guys, uh, the same arguments regarding Iran. This is why I'm saying Many, especially in the region, are watching the outcome of the ongoing talks between US and Hamas, between the, the possible talks or negotiations, renegotiations between the US and Iran, even though Iran made it clear they have no interest whatsoever. And I can see their argument. Why will they trust the Americans? No, I mean, we pulled out of the GCPOA, unilaterally breaking any sort of all the protocols that is known under international law. So, you know, because that deal has been achieved with other 5 countries, not just between the US and Iran. If it was unilateral, that's different conversation. And even with that, you can't do that. Once you sign a contract, You are bound by its clause, or clauses, that is. So, and this is why, uh, uh, I, I, I just don't see it. So, uh, I saw something here that I am aware of, and I'm going to comment on it. Uh, Tom, Tom, you wrote something about scenarios, simulations. Yeah, regarding China and US war. So Yeah, in my days back in, in DC, uh, there were some scenarios run in, in the Pentagon, and there were 18, at least at that time, to my knowledge. Maybe they run other ones recently I'm not aware of, but I'm aware of those 18 scenarios. 17 out of 18, we lost to China. It was only one scenario by which the US won over China, but 17 out of 18 Message is loud and clear. So, and I hope we never get to that. I hope it never get to that. So, for the sake of all of us, humanity for that matter. So, so I am— that was one of the reasons why in my last trip I had to make a trip to Taiwan. To Taipei. I was in Taipei. I didn't go to the coastal part. I had to go down there to see with my own eyes where things are. And people have no appetite, the locals have no appetite for, let alone understanding the complexity of something like this. They've been fed certain narratives, narratives that is provided by us. So they have no appetite. And, and, and, uh, especially the youth, what I noticed there, I had conversation with younger generations in Taipei that they just— and I didn't go into the depth of the conversation, just basic stuff, just to— my reason for doing that, I wanted to just see where they are intellectually speaking as far as understanding and, and I didn't get good vibes regarding that. They clueless, and sorry to say the term, not to disparage anybody here, but they were clueless about really understanding the ramifications. So, oh, Athene Wu, good to see you, man. So, uh, that is, uh, that's where— but again, I am concerned as to what I see moving forward regarding South China it's gonna have— in my lifetime, I'm gonna witness that. And I hope it never gets to that, and I hope I'm wrong. I hope I'm wrong. So far, whatever I've been aiming at and talking about— that's why I share with you excerpts from my, my, my books— is to make a point, guys. And the point is to highlight to you that here is something I talked about 5 years, 6 years, 7 years ago, and here is relevant today. You know, and, uh, that's the reason why I, I, I, I just see it coming. I just see it coming. It's because of how things are. And to me, sometimes— and, and again, I can't advise the Chinese government, they have their own advisors, whatever— the only thing I know is that sometimes you have to hit hard. You have to hit back hard. That's like when you deal with the bully, what do you do? I wish I can share one story with you about one day I had similar situation. I'm not proud of what I did. We leave it at that because I gave the guy a chance politely, you refrain from whatever, and the guy kind of thought I was just bluffing. So we leave it at that. That's the past. So, and I see the same thing right here. The China is gonna— China at some point is gonna have to hit back hard. It's the only way they're gonna know, for the West, collective West, that is. All right guys, this is what I have to share with you. By the way, I am going to be preparing, uh, one for you for tomorrow. Don't miss my advice, don't miss the Live stream tomorrow. So I'm doing a live stream for you tomorrow, very interesting topic. I don't want to spoil it for you, I wanted to keep it a surprise. So, so, uh, uh, Matt Becky, your question I prefer not to answer. It's— you'll be shocked. But again, because it's the past, is the past. But again, I was patient enough to be nice and kind and Uh, so anyway, maybe one day, Matt, if we meet face to face for a tea or coffee, we'll chat about that. Anyway, I'm gonna be doing that tomorrow, guys, for a specific topic. And I really— I advise— my recommendation, not advice, my recommendation, if you can make it, make sure to join me here because this will have far-reaching implications, what I'm going to be talking about too. Tomorrow. So I leave it at tomorrow. Just quickly, guys, I want to share a quick, uh, picture here to let you know regarding where the fundraising is so far. This is where we are as of yesterday, and I would greatly appreciate your support for the Asia trip. Here is the link. And I want to give a quick thanks to, um, I received a donation yesterday from someone. You know, when I see someone, that means no names. They don't disclose the name, but I'm gonna just use the screen name, uh, 997MLV. 997MLV, thank you so much for your substantial donation, and that was in support of the channel, not the trip. So I just don't confuse the two. I have two locations, one in support of the channel, uh, one in support of the trip, which is this one here, and one of them is in support of the channel, uh, right, uh, yeah, right there. Where is it? Buy Me a Coffee, right here. And this one is also for my books. If you are interested in buying some, uh, get a copy of these books, go to Buy Me a Coffee to Extras and And that's where you see the books. Now, not that expensive there, guys, because I'm not, uh, it's just the basic price for it. So, and for the channel is right here. So, and thank you for that. And to those who have, who missed a livestream tomorrow, I mentioned that I plan on heading out to Asia towards the end of August if I reach the target, uh, uh, fundraising for it sooner, I'm gonna go ahead and travel there sooner. Other than that, so far is planned on the end of August and go from there. As to the locations, you all know I don't disclose locations. The one thing I can share with you is there will be almost 3 countries involved. That is why I put the— I did the math, the numbers and all that, and came up to this number here. So And again, I'm very thankful to our community, to those who can afford to support this trip. There are those who support anonymously. I, I asked their permission to disclose the name. They said no, they prefer to stay anonymous. I will, I will, uh, uh, sort of honor their request no matter what the cost is, because that's how I operate. And I'm very grateful to all of you. So, uh, anyway, guys, I look forward to seeing you tomorrow. As always, remember geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, guys. Bye-bye.